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Media & Leisure

CJ E&M (130960)

BUY (Maintain), TP: W95,000 (Maintain)

Yr to Sales OP NP EPS % chg EBITDA PE EV/EBITDA PB ROE DY Stock price (Sep 6, KRW) 68,400 Market cap (USD mn) 2,397 Dec (W bn) (W bn) (W bn) (KRW) (YoY) (W bn) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) Shares outstanding (mn) 39 52W High/Low (KRW) 95,000/61,000 2014A 1,233 (13) 225 5,821 4,244.0 290 6.6 4.7 1.0 16.4 - 6M avg. daily turnover (USD mn) 17.2 2015A 1,347 53 54 1,409 (75.8) 373 57.2 8.2 2.0 3.6 0.2 Free float (%) 56.7 Foreign ownership (%) 19.0 2016F 1,499 66 92 2,393 69.8 374 29.2 7.0 1.7 5.8 0.3 Major shareholders(%) CJ Corp and 5 others 42.9 2017F 1,655 102 98 2,547 6.4 419 27.4 6.2 1.6 5.9 0.4 NPS 5.1 2018F 1,778 130 130 3,370 32.3 449 20.7 5.7 1.5 7.3 0.4

Performance Content localization key to success 1M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 12.1 (6.7) (12.9) Maintain BUY with TP of W95,000: We maintain BUY with an SotP-derived TP of Rel. to Kospi (%p) 9.7 (12.4) (22.4) W95,000 on CJ E&M, a major content provider. In fact, CJ E&M is benefitting from growing demand both locally and overseas for its competitive content. 1) Studio 12MF PE trend Dragon, a subsidiary that was split off in May, will be used to accelerate production (X) (KRW) 12MF PER (LHS) 200,000 60.0 of competitive content for global viewers. 2) Ad prices should rise for major TV price (RHS) 180,000 50.0 160,000 channels, including tvN and Mnet, which should lift ad sales. 3) Sales of digital 140,000 40.0 120,000 content and ads on diversified platforms, e.g., VOD, PIP and MCN, should serve 30.0 100,000 as new growth drivers. 4) Localization should increase the overseas contribution to 80,000 20.0 60,000 earnings. 40,000 10.0 20,000 0.0 0 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Opportunity for localization strategy to highlight overseas markets: After reinforcing its capacity to develop quality content and bolstering its domestic position, CJ E&M has expanded operations overseas. And, the company has developed a business model based on selling rights for successful content and using a one-source, multi-use (OSMU) plan that localizes content to reflect cultural and social preferences. In fact, CJ E&M is advancing into China through a JV with a local player, and this has reinforced IP competitiveness and enhanced the hit ratio. Unlike production, CJ E&M’s IP are based on several years of expertise and this should help sustain its competitive position. By focusing on localization, the company is able to diversify its local content and quality, and this should limit the negative effects from regulatory pressure related to geopolitical concerns.

Reinforced capacity to produce competitive content: In May 2016, CJ E&M split its drama production division and established a subsidiary, . This move was aimed at reinforcing its capacity to produce content that could appeal to global markets. One of Studio Dragon’s subsidiaries is Hwa & Dam Pictures, which manages Eun-sook Kim, the writer of popular TV shows, including Descendants of the Sun . Another subsidiary, , is a local agency that manages Ji-eun Park, the writer for the TV series My Love From the Star . Going forward, media earnings should pick up, on: 1) better media sales backed by talented writers, 2) stronger results from expanding the distribution of in-house content to terrestrial and other channels, and 3) a growing contribution from overseas markets.

TV broadcast sales recovery ramping up: While sales have been growing more rapidly than the market backed by higher ad unit prices at the broadcasting division, Minha Choi earnings growth has stalled due to higher amortization costs following a change in 822-3276-6260 the accounting of copyrights for TV shows. However, we forecast 3Q16 [email protected] broadcasting OP will grow 23% YoY, 4Q16 OP 73% YoY and 2017 OP 51% YoY backed by lower amortization costs.

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Figure 1. Content weighting of GDP for major countries Figure 2. Chinese content market forecast

(%) (USD bn) (%) 4 3.77 3.76 250 1.8 Contents market size (L) 1.7 3.08 % GDP (R) 200 3 2.60 1.6 2.34 1.5 150 2 1.4 1.42 1.29 1.28 1.22 100 1.3 1 1.2 50 1.1 0

US 0 1.0 India China Korea Japan Taiwan 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Note: based on 2014 Source: KOCCA, Korea Investment & Securities Source: KOCCA, Korea Investment & Securities

Table 1. 2H16~17 domestic business plan

3Q16 4Q16 2017 tvN: , , , , Recruiting talented writers and producers to Solo>, SBS: expand the production capacity Media OCN: MBC: Developing core IPs and widening digital and Mnet: KBS: global businesses

, , , Pictures Against the World>, Madness> ,, Records: , Records: , , Improving competency for production and Music/Musical Wife> OST: , management Musical: <42nd Street> Musical: , Continuing development of in-house musical IPs Source: CJ E&M, Korea Investment & Securities

Table 2. 2H16~17 overseas business plan

3Q16 4Q16 2017 Global co-production to materialize (China Huace China: , , > Media Expanding channels at tvN ASIA US: Launch of global OTT platform Overseas expansion of tving, enhancing OTT

service Accelerating R&D and co -production for global Vietnam: China: projects Pictures Thailand: Vietnam: China: , , Indonesia: Vietnam: , Music/Musical Asia concerts: , China musical: Expanding in-house IPs and overseas licenses

Source: CJ E&M, Korea Investment & Securities

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Table 3. Quarterly earnings (W bn) 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16F 4Q16F 2015 2016F 2017F Sales 293.1 299.2 370.0 385.0 313.5 357.3 387.2 440.8 1,347.3 1,498.8 1,655.0 Media 177.9 223.5 227.6 280.5 225.4 268.4 271.9 324.9 909.5 1,090.5 1,214.1 Movies 65.9 31.5 93.1 47.8 40.3 40.6 63.1 56.0 238.3 200.1 221.2 Music 41.9 43.2 48.5 50.5 44.6 47.2 51.4 53.3 184.1 196.6 207.7 Performance 7.4 1.0 0.8 6.2 3.3 1.1 0.8 6.5 15.4 11.6 12.0 COGS 227.2 218.8 286.5 286.9 236.7 269.8 296.4 319.5 1,019.4 1,122.4 1,219.7 COGS-to-Sales (%) 77.5 73.1 77.4 74.5 75.5 75.5 76.5 72.5 75.7 74.9 73.7 GP 65.9 80.4 83.5 98.1 76.8 87.4 90.9 121.3 327.9 376.4 435.3 GP margin (%) 22.5 26.9 22.6 25.5 24.5 24.5 23.5 27.5 24.3 25.1 26.3 SG&A 56.7 62.6 69.9 86.0 67.9 73.3 76.9 92.6 275.2 310.6 333.4 SG&A-to-Sales (%) 19.4 20.9 18.9 22.3 21.7 20.5 19.8 21.0 20.4 20.7 20.1 OP 9.2 17.8 13.6 12.1 8.9 14.1 14.0 28.7 52.7 65.7 101.9 OPM (%) 3.1 6.0 3.7 3.1 2.8 4.0 3.6 6.5 3.9 4.4 6.2 Media 2.5 19.6 7.0 17.0 5.1 20.5 8.7 29.4 46.2 63.7 96.3 Movies 6.5 (4.1) 7.7 (4.1) 3.8 (6.6) 5.5 (0.7) 6.0 1.9 5.2 Music 0.2 2.1 (0.3) (1.3) (0.1) 1.3 0.1 (0.4) 0.7 0.9 1.0 Performance 0.1 0.2 (0.9) 0.4 0.1 (1.0) (0.3) 0.5 (0.2) (0.8) (0.6) EBT 105.1 21.1 33.1 (100.0) 14.6 47.6 18.4 25.8 59.3 106.5 123.4 Controlling NP 91.2 13.3 27.8 (77.9) 13.2 43.2 14.9 21.0 54.3 92.3 98.2 (% YoY) Sales 10.6 5.5 7.8 12.9 7.0 19.4 4.7 14.5 9.3 11.2 10.4 Media 4.4 6.9 11.2 16.0 26.7 20.1 19.5 15.8 10.1 19.9 11.3 Movies 32.5 4.5 (0.2) 25.6 (38.9) 28.8 (32.2) 17.3 12.8 (16.1) 10.6 Music 3.3 1.8 16.5 (9.9) 6.3 9.4 6.0 5.6 1.9 6.8 5.6 Performance 68.2 (42.8) (79.0) 25.0 (55.7) 3.0 6.0 5.0 4.4 (24.3) 3.2 COGS 8.0 (1.9) 0.6 10.8 4.2 23.3 3.4 11.4 4.3 10.1 8.7 COGS-to-Sales (%p) (1.9) (5.5) (5.6) (1.4) (2.0) 2.4 (0.9) (2.0) (3.6) (0.8) (1.2) GP 20.5 32.8 43.4 19.7 16.5 8.7 8.9 23.6 28.4 14.8 15.7 GP margin (%p) 1.9 5.5 5.6 1.4 2.0 (2.4) 0.9 2.0 3.6 0.8 1.2 SG&A (2.2) (9.4) 1.7 19.0 19.7 17.1 10.0 7.6 2.7 12.9 7.3 SG&A-to-Sales (%p) (2.5) (3.4) (1.1) 1.1 2.3 (0.4) 1.0 (1.3) (1.3) 0.3 (0.6) OP na na na 24.6 (2.9) (20.8) 3.0 137.6 na 24.8 55.0 OPM (%p) 4.4 9.0 6.7 0.3 (0.3) (2.0) (0.1) 3.4 4.9 0.5 1.8 Media na na na (23.2) 105.6 4.4 23.2 72.5 2,048.9 37.9 51.2 Movies 50.5 na 18.1 na (41.8) na (28.6) na na (68.0) 171.9 Music na na na na na (37.5) na na na 32.0 13.4 Performance na na na na 109.0 na na 5.0 na na na EBT na na na na (86.1) 126.2 (44.5) na na 79.4 16.0 Controlling NP na na (90.1) na (85.6) 225.2 (46.3) na (75.8) 69.9 6.4 Source: CJ E&M, Korea Investment & Securities

Figure 3. OP breakdown

(W bn) Media Movies Music Performance 40 28.7 30 9.7 17.8 14.1 12.1 20 13.6 14.0 9.2 8.9 10

0

(10) (3.3) (8.5)

(20) (10.5)

(30) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16F 4Q16F

Source: CJ E&M, Korea Investment & Securities

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Table 4. TP calculation (W bn, x ) NOPLAT Multiple Value Notes Operating value (a) 2,237 Media 72.8 30 2,156 Applying 2017 NOPLAT Movies 3.9 20 78 Applying 2017 NOPLAT Music/Performance 0.3 10 3 Applying 2017 NOPLAT Game (b) 1,352 27.6% stake in Enterprise value 3,589 Net debt (c) (125) Fair value 3,714.6 =(a)+(b)-(c) Shares outstanding (‘000 shares) 38,574 Ex. treasury shares TP (KRW) 96,297

Source: Korea Investment & Securities

Company overview & Glossary

CJ E&M was formed in March 2011 through a merger among CJ Group’s five media/entertainment affiliates such as On Media, CJ Media, CJ Internet, M-net Media and CJ Entertainment. In March 2014, CJ E&M signed a deal to attract investment from Tencent to strengthen the game business Net marble that was later split off from the company as CJ Netmarble. And then in October, CJ Netmarble and CJ Games merged to become Netmarble Games. With this, the game business was excluded from CJ E&M’s consolidated accounting. As of now, CJ E&M has 31% of Netmarble Games. CJ E&M is a comprehensive content provider in the broadcast, , music and performance businesses and CJ Corp. is the largest shareholder with 39.4%.

ò Product placement (PPL) : A marketing strategy to subtly promote products through an indirect advertising technique; Products are used in or dramas and their brands or images are exposed to viewers

ò Contents Power Index (CPI) : A measure of the popularity of content distributed by terrestrial broadcasters and cable companies; Calculated by aggregating their rankings in news search results (sensation), direct searches (engagement) and online buzz in social media (intensity)

ò Killer content : Primary content that plays a leading role in broadcast, animation, film or music industries

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Balance sheet Income statement FY-ending Dec. (W bn) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F FY-ending Dec. (W bn) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Current assets 1,039 940 1,057 1,181 1,265 Sales 1,233 1,347 1,499 1,655 1,778 Cash & cash equivalent 34 47 52 63 75 COGS 977 1,019 1,122 1,220 1,296 Accounts & other receivables 372 434 492 545 587 Gross profit 255 328 376 435 482 Inventory 5 4 4 5 5 Non-current assets 1,318 1,425 1,484 1,560 1,607 SG&A expense 268 275 311 333 352 Investment assets 475 603 656 700 734 Operating profit (13) 53 66 102 130 Tangible assets 88 77 78 79 80 Financial income 15 19 16 17 18 Intangible assets 695 653 649 670 673 Interest income 10 9 8 9 10 Total assets 2,357 2,365 2,542 2,741 2,872 Current liabilities 581 642 731 839 858 Financial expense 23 21 28 30 32 Accounts & other payables 363 418 473 531 588 Interest expense 15 14 12 13 13 ST debt & bond 45 55 50 50 35 Other non-operating profit (39) (120) (23) (25) (24) Current portion of LT debt 102 121 141 151 201 Gains (Losses) in associates, Non-current liabilities 271 162 169 176 173 10 129 76 60 73 subsidiaries and JV Debentures 150 100 100 100 90 Earnings before tax (50) 59 106 123 164 LT debt & financial liabilities 103 32 32 32 32 Income taxes 7 6 16 27 37 Total liabilities 852 805 899 1,015 1,031 Controlling interest 1,509 1,552 1,635 1,721 1,839 Net profit 233 53 91 96 128 Capital stock 194 194 194 194 194 Net profit of controlling interest 225 54 92 98 130 Capital surplus 973 973 973 973 973 Other comprehensive profit (5) (1) (1) (1) (1) Other Reserves 28 16 16 16 16 Total comprehensive profit 228 52 90 95 127 Retained earnings 316 370 455 541 660 Total comprehensive profit of Minority interest (4) 9 7 5 2 221 54 91 97 129 controlling interest Shareholders' equity 1,506 1,560 1,642 1,726 1,841 EBITDA 290 373 374 419 449

Cash flow Key financial data

FY-ending Dec. (W bn) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F FY-ending Dec. 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F C/F from operating 195 295 320 382 319 per share data (KRW) EPS 5,821 1,409 2,393 2,547 3,370 Net profit 233 53 91 96 128 BPS 39,100 40,188 42,349 44,563 47,597 Depreciation 19 14 13 13 13 DPS 0 200 200 300 300

Growth (%) Amortization 284 306 295 304 306 Sales growth 3.7 9.3 11.2 10.4 7.4 Net incr. in W/C (102) (42) (5) 24 (57) OP growth NM NM 24.8 55.0 27.8

Others (239) (36) (74) (55) (71) NP growth 4,336.0 (75.8) 69.9 6.4 32.3

C/F from investing (640) (189) (324) (372) (323) EPS growth 4,244.0 (75.8) 69.8 6.4 32.3

EBITDA growth (13.2) 28.6 0.3 12.3 7.1 CAPEX (19) (8) (15) (15) (15) Profitability (%) Decr. in fixed assets 1 0 0 0 0 OP margin (1.0) 3.9 4.4 6.2 7.3 Incr. in investment (298) 162 23 15 38 NP margin 18.2 4.0 6.2 5.9 7.3 EBITDA margin 23.5 27.7 24.9 25.3 25.3 Net incr. in intangible assets (327) (331) (290) (326) (309) ROA 10.2 2.2 3.7 3.6 4.5 Others 3 (12) (42) (46) (37) ROE 16.4 3.6 5.8 5.9 7.3 C/F from financing 146 (94) 9 0 16 Dividend yield - 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 Dividend payout ratio 0.0 14.2 8.4 11.8 8.9 Incr. in equity 138 3 0 0 0 Stability Incr. in debts 14 (96) 15 10 25 Net debt (W bn) (113) (52) (80) (125) (147) Dividends 0 0 (8) (8) (12) Debt/equity ratio (%) 26.7 19.8 19.7 19.2 19.4

Others (6) (1) 2 (2) 3 Valuation (X) PE 6.6 57.2 29.2 27.4 20.7 C/F from others (0) 2 0 0 0 PB 1.0 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 Increase in cash (299) 14 5 10 12 EV/EBITDA 4.7 8.2 7.0 6.2 5.7 Note: Based on K-IFRS (consolidated)

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Changes to recommendation and price target

Company (Code) Date Recommendation Price target CJ E&M (130960) 04-27-15 BUY W76,000 05-12-15 BUY W84,000 05-31-16 BUY W110,000 08-10-16 BUY W95,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16

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■ Guide to Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. stock ratings based on 12-month forward share price performance relative to the market index ò BUY: Expected to outperform the market index by 15%p or more ò Hold: Expected to underperform or outperform the market index by less than 15%p ò Underweight: Expected to underperform the market index by 15%p or more ò Korea Investment & Securities does not offer target prices for stocks with Hold or Underweight ratings.

■ Guide to Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. stock rating allocation (as of Jun 30, 2016)

BUY Hold Underweight (Sell) 80.8% 17.9% 1.3% Note: % of companies under coverage with this rating

■ Guide to Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. sector ratings for the next 12 months ò Overweight: Recommend increasing the sector’s weighting in the portfolio compared to its respective weighting in the Kospi (Kosdaq) based on market capitalization. ò Neutral: Recommend maintaining the sector’s weighting in the portfolio in line with its respective weighting in the Kospi (Kosdaq) based on market capitalization. ò Underweight: Recommend reducing the sector’s weighting in the portfolio compared to its respective weighting in the Kospi (Kosdaq) based on market capitalization.

■ Analyst Certification I/We, as the research analyst/analysts who prepared this report, do hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my/our personal views about the subject securities and issuers discussed in this report. I/We do hereby also certify that no part of my/our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report.

■ Important compliance notice As of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or the public appearance (or the end of the second most recent month if the publication date is less than 10 calendar days after the end of the most recent month), Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates does not own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of CJ E&M.

There is no actual, material conflict of interest of the research analyst or Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates known at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance.

Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates has not managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for CJ E&M in the past 12 months;

Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates has not received compensation for investment banking services from CJ E&M in the past 12 months; Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates does not expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from CJ E&M in the next 3 months.

Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., or its affiliates was not making a market in CJ E&M’s securities at the time that the research report was published.

Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. does not own over 1% of shares of the companies mentioned in this report as of September 7, 2016. Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. has not provided this report to various third parties. Neither the analyst/analysts who prepared this report nor their associates own any shares of the company/companies mentioned in this report as of September 7, 2016.

Prepared by: Minha Choi

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Global Disclaimer

■ General This research report and marketing materials for Korean securities are originally prepared and issued by the Research Center of Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd., an organization licensed with the Financial Supervisory Service of . The analyst(s) who participated in preparing and issuing this research report and marketing materials is/are licensed and regulated by the Korea Financial Investment Association in Korea only. This report and marketing materials are copyrighted and may not be copied, redistributed, forwarded or altered in any way without the consent of Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd.

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