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Update Shorebird Population Estimates Report 1 Revision of the East Asian-Australasian Flyway Population Estimates for 37 listed Migratory Shorebird Species Birgita D. Hansen1, Richard A. Fuller2, Doug Watkins3, Danny I. Rogers4, Robert S. Clemens2, Mike Newman5, Eric J. Woehler5 and Dan R. Weller6 1 Centre for eResearch and Digital Innovation, Federation University Australia, PO Box 663, Ballarat, Vic. 3353, Australia. 2 School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia. 3 Australasian Wader Study Group, 99 MacKellar Cr, Cook, 2614, ACT, Australia. 4 Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, PO Box 137, Heidelberg, Vic. 3084, Australia. 5 BirdLife Tasmania, GPO Box 68, Hobart, Tas. 7001, Australia. 6 BirdLife Australia, Suite 2-05, 60 Leicester Street, Carlton, Vic. 3053, Australia. 1st September 2016 Citation This publication should be cited as follows: Hansen, B.D., Fuller, R.A., Watkins, D., Rogers, D.I., Clemens, R.S., Newman, M., Woehler, E.J. and Weller, D.R. (2016) Revision of the East Asian-Australasian Flyway Population Estimates for 37 listed Migratory Shorebird Species. Unpublished report for the Department of the Environment. BirdLife Australia, Melbourne. Copyright © BirdLife Australia This document is subject to copyright and may only be used for the purposes for which it was commissioned. The use or copying of this document in whole or part without the permission of BirdLife Australia is an infringement of copyright. Disclaimer Although BirdLife Australia has taken all the necessary steps to ensure that an accurate document has been prepared, the organisation accepts no liability for any damages or loss incurred as a result of reliance placed upon the report and its content. Cover image: Bar-tailed Godwit Limosa lapponica baueri, Nome, Alaska by Dan Weller. Revision of the East Asian-Australasian Flyway Population Estimates for 37 listed Migratory Shorebird Species 2 Table of Contents Executive summary ................................................................................................................................. 7 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 10 The East Asian-Australasian Flyway ................................................................................................... 10 Population trends .............................................................................................................................. 10 Why is an EAAF population estimate revision necessary? ................................................................. 11 Species, subspecies and geographic populations .............................................................................. 11 Spatial and temporal coverage .......................................................................................................... 11 Methods ................................................................................................................................................ 13 Flyway survey areas & data sources .................................................................................................. 13 Data extraction & summary .............................................................................................................. 13 Australia ........................................................................................................................................ 13 The rest of the Flyway ................................................................................................................... 14 Data analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 14 Modelling of Australian shorebird count time series to generate predictions of population size . 14 Analyses for Australian sites with insufficient time series data ..................................................... 15 Analyses on count data from outside Australia ............................................................................. 15 Estimating shorebird numbers in uncounted areas .......................................................................... 15 Extrapolating coastal counts to uncounted areas ......................................................................... 16 Estimating the numbers of migratory shorebirds in inland Australia ................................................ 17 Expert elicitation ............................................................................................................................... 19 Australian state-based adjustments .............................................................................................. 19 Population estimates based on breeding distribution and density ................................................... 19 Flyways and population considerations ........................................................................................ 21 Adjustment of predictions and estimates ......................................................................................... 21 Results ................................................................................................................................................... 23 Count coverage and site data quality ................................................................................................ 23 Australia and New Zealand ............................................................................................................ 23 The Flyway, beyond Australia and New Zealand ........................................................................... 24 Modelling predictions........................................................................................................................ 25 Inland estimates ............................................................................................................................ 25 Adjustments and expert review ........................................................................................................ 26 Expert workshops .......................................................................................................................... 26 Australian state-based adjustments .............................................................................................. 26 Overseas adjustments ................................................................................................................... 28 Revision of the East Asian-Australasian Flyway Population Estimates for 37 listed Migratory Shorebird Species 3 Relationship between breeding range and density with population estimates ................................ 28 Selection of final estimates ............................................................................................................... 29 Discussion .............................................................................................................................................. 31 Summary of new estimates and species-specific commentary ......................................................... 31 Australian Estimates ...................................................................................................................... 32 State-based considerations ........................................................................................................... 33 AWC data considerations .............................................................................................................. 34 Species considerations .................................................................................................................. 34 Inland modelling ............................................................................................................................ 35 Extrapolation ................................................................................................................................. 36 Comparison with previous flyway population estimates ................................................................... 36 Considerations for future population estimate revisions .................................................................. 38 Closing remarks ................................................................................................................................. 38 References ............................................................................................................................................. 39 Tables .................................................................................................................................................... 44 Table 1. List of East Asian-Australasian Flyway migratory shorebird species that visit Australia. .. 44 Table 2. New East Asian-Australasian Flyway population estimates with adjustments ................. 45 Figures ................................................................................................................................................... 47 Figure 1. East Asian-Australasian Flyway. ...................................................................................... 47 Figure 2. Example of a migration range map from Birdlife International - Sharp-tailed Sandpiper Calidris acuminata. ........................................................................................................................ 48 Figure 3. Example of the breeding range and distribution of all 37 East Asian-Australasian
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