ANNUAL REVIEW 2020–2021 VOL. 39 ISSN: 1392-5504

Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review

H.E. Valdas Adamkus, Former President of on Lithuania’s Eastern Policy

H.E. Aleksander Kwaśniewski, Former President of on Polish-Lithuanian Relations

Nobel Laureate Robert J. Shiller on the Global Economy During the Pandemic

Ambassador Audra Plepytė on the UN’s 75th Anniversary

Patrick Keller on ’s Role in Deterrence in NATO’s Northeast

Chris Miller on the Implications of the U.S. Presidential Election Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 3 Sincerely, LINAS KOJALA This publication would not have This publication would been possible without our friends and partners. I am extremely happy that the Ministry of Foreign key remains a Affairs of Lithuania support while providing partner, independence. ensuring editorial and the Adenauer Stiftung Konrad Embassy in Lithuania contin- U.S. in our partnership; engage ue to these contributions have been essential in making this current as it issue of LFPR as far-reaching is. I am thankful for my colleagues Studies at the Eastern for their help. Center Finally, Ambassador Rytis Šešelgytė, Margarita Paulauskas, of International at Institute Director Science, Relations and Political University and Andžej Professor an Associate Pukšto, at Vytautas Magnus University, Board, Editorial formed a great my warmest whom I extend to thanks. share to Please do not hesitate LFPR with your friends, colleagues and partners! - This issue places a heavy empha- in of mass protests sis on the topic Belarus. Laurynas Jonavičius from looks at Lithu- University Vilnius events taking position to ania’s place in this neighboring country as being that was not perceived on the brick of significant changes at the start of 2020. The issue of upon in Belarus is also touched articles by well-known American and David A. authors, Daniel Fried how the Andelman, who analyze of the US has evolved global role the years of Donald through Finally, with Joe Biden set Trump. Chris Miller looks at over, take to of the election and the aftermath dilemmas for the Demo- the future presidency. cratic I am also happy that the publica- tion is full of well-known names Audra experts. and experienced - Represen the Permanent Plepytė, the United tative of Lithuania to her thoughts on Nations, shares Nations and its 75th the United aspects of Different anniversary. by Vytautas covered security are for the who argues Keršanskas, knowledge develop better need to on dealing with the issue of hybrid weighs in Keller Patrick threats. on German security policy and in the Baltic States. its presence also wor Other contributions are attention. thy of reader - It is a privilege to serve the Ed- as It is a privilege to Foreign of Lithuanian itor-in-Chief for the third Review (LFPR) Policy The aim of the annual journal year. insights on the most provide is to challenges for Lithuanian pressing and security policy, as foreign discuss global develop- well as to for the grateful are ments. We to positive response exceptionally editions of the journal we previous decision- both from have received community. and the expert makers arduous 2020 is an extremely Hence, year on many fronts. of group international the year’s authors with diverse backgrounds have at- of expertise and areas some shed at least to tempted light on the essential develop- ments. This enables the journal a variety of views and provide to multiple topics. delve deeper into that two former LFPR is honored – former President heads of state Adamkus of Lithuania Valdas of Poland and former President gave Aleksander Kwaśniewski – on bilateral interviews exclusive as well relations, Lithuanian-Polish of the Eastern as on the future Both presidents policy. Partnership the common inter emphasized ests, as well as personal friend- ships, that bind Lithuania and than ever before. more Poland A NOTE FROM FROM A NOTE EDITOR THE

EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Linas Kojala EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Mikutaitė COVER DESIGN: Fausta Ieva Makarevičė LAYOUT: PUBLISHER Editor-in- (EESC), is Centre Studies Europe of Eastern Director Linas Kojala, Vilnius, think-tank established in non-profit Chief. EESC is a nongovernmental, in and economic processes political analyze aims to Lithuania, in 2006. It Commission, partners and beyond. EESC include European Europe Eastern National Endowment for and Security Programme, Science for Peace the NATO and others. Institute Research Policy Foreign the CEPA, USAID, Democracy, EDITORIAL STAFF Affairs of Lithuania Ministry of Foreign Rytis Paulauskas, University Vilnius Šešelgytė, Margarita Vytautas Magnus University Pukšto, Andžej MAIN PARTNER Affairs of Lithuania Ministry of Foreign PARTNERS (KAS) is a German political foundation, which The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung also cooperates than 120 countries. The KAS in more of projects is in charge Review by supporting the Policy in the publication of the Lithuanian Foreign printing and distribution. journal’s US Embassy in Lithuania this contributing to the US experts US Embassy in Lithuania has supported year's publication. ISSN: 1392-5504 © LFPR, 2020–2021 39 Vol. for a the source edition hold a permission from All of the images in the present reuse. non-commercial http://www.lfpr.lt http://www.eesc.lt

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Y S S A B EM Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 5 CONVERSATIONS - VALDAS ADAMKUS ADAMKUS VALDAS of the served as the President 1998 Republic of Lithuania from 2004 to from 2003 and again to in exile, 2009. During his years spent in the USA, he served as a of the fifth administrator regional - En States of the United region Agency Protection vironmental in theand was actively engaged fight for the cause of freedom by occupation of Lithuania from the . ation Speech by Adamkus in Au- President gust, 2020. Former of Lithaunia was presented - Kaczyński Pro with Lech for his efforts metheus Award further regional cooper to I still have hope to I still have hope to see new highways built and railways in the near future, meeting modern for our standards, be con- countries to by energy nected networks, pipelines, - modern telecommu nication channels. It's been 20 years but these links now, have not been fin- ished yet. your key foreign policy priorities. foreign your key While in office, you had some meetings with your 40 bilateral Aleksander President counterpart, whom we alone, Kwaśniewski for this Lithuanian also interviewed Review issue. There Policy Foreign been a yet-another has recently - the national level but also defended it wherever the cause of freedom emerge. was only beginning to that Adam- It was these very topics discuss with Linas kus sat down to of the Lithuanian the editor Kojala, just before Review, Policy Foreign 94th birthday. the President’s ask you about the to – I would like between Lithuania and relationship be one of this used to as Poland, Adamkus accepted the award from the hands of Poland's for the hands of Poland's from the award : Adamkus accepted mer foreign minister Anna Fotyga (© R. Dačkus/Lithuanian President‘s (© R. Dačkus/Lithuanian President‘s Anna Fotyga minister mer foreign Chancellery) IMAGE - as the Presi During his two terms dent of Lithuania (1998 through 2009), 2003 and 2004 thorough Adamkus became known Valdas Central to for his close attention with relations Europe, and Eastern and countries like Poland, He has remained and . these issues since, to committed this day, to and is remembered as a leader who not internationally, at democracy only strengthened VALDAS ADAMKUS: ADAMKUS: VALDAS OR LATER, SOONER OF FREEDOM THE SPIRIT BELARUS IN PREVAIL WILL

: Sooner or Later, the Spirit of Freedom will Prevail in Belarus of Freedom the Spirit ADAMKUS: Sooner or Later, VALDAS of Poland Partner : Lithuania is a Key Strategic ALEKSANDER KWAŚNIEWSKI the Pandemic: ROBERT J. SHILLER on Global Economy during of the EU Lithuania is a Part Fortunately, and Future UN at 75. Challenging the Past AUDRA PLEPYTĖ. Putin Undeterred A. ANDELMAN. Covid Leaves DAVID Dilemmas European Policy DR. CHRIS MILLER. Biden’s Post-Coronavirus DANIEL FRIED. US Leadership and Defense in Deterrence Role Solid: Germany’s KELLER. Rock DR. PATRICK North-East in NATO’s NATO Unity – 30 years of German 30 years GEHLEN. DR. ANDREAS VON to the East Enlargement Decline of ’s JAMES SHERR. The Paradox What will History Books say about the EU and JONAVIČIUS. DR. LAURYNAS in Belarus? Lukashenko in Light of the Crisis Threats: In Search of a More Hybrid KERŠANSKAS. Countering VYTAUTAS Approach Strategic of an Undigested Past Dealing with the Trauma

CONVERSATIONS CONVERSATIONS 05 07 11 ANALYSIS 13 16 21 24 27 30 33 36 41 CONFERENCE OVERVIEW 45

CONTENTS TABLE OF OF TABLE Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 4 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 7 CONVERSATIONS ALEKSANDER KWAŚNIEWSKI, KWAŚNIEWSKI, ALEKSANDER of the is the former President (1995–2005). Republic of Poland Until November 2013, President co-lead the Kwaśniewski monitoring Parliament European monitor to mission in Ukraine Yulia the criminal cases against and Lutsenko Yuriy Tymoshenko, Ivaschenko. Valeriy countries suffering under Russian presence The rotating aggression. has in our region troops of NATO significantly, servingalso increased and symbol as a military deterrent of our unity, solidarity and resolve. Russia? deter Is that enough to I think that under the current if yes. However, circumstances, situation worsens, the international should military presence the NATO For that expanded. be significantly al- installations are purpose, NATO and upgraded being enlarged ready Europe. Central throughout

nomic and diplomatic sanctions, its military increased while NATO and the Baltic in Poland presence deter Is that enough to States. Russia? politics and aggressive – Russia’s as chal- military are interventions lenging for countries in our region and the EU. for NATO as they are community has The international such make deal to done a great policies costly for Russia – sanc- in- of Russia from tions, exclusion bodies and partnerships, ternational additional financial support for Kwaśniewski and Adamkus during a discussion at the Vilnius Book Fare in 2012 (© / Šarūnas in 2012 (© DELFI / Book Fare and Adamkus during a discussion at the Vilnius : Kwaśniewski Mažeika) IMAGE of the Lithuanian Foreign Editor talks Review Linas Kojala Policy Kwaśniewski with the President with Lithu- on his cooperation Adamkus Valdas anian President (in office 1998–2003 and 2004- trends 2009), as well as broader of political and economic reform in Belarus, the protests in Ukraine, relations, evolution of transatlantic China and beyond. – How do you see the EU and the growing to response NATO since in the region Russian threat 2014? The EU imposed eco- ALEKSANDER KWAŚNIEWSKI: KWAŚNIEWSKI: ALEKSANDER IS A KEY LITHUANIA PARTNER STRATEGIC OF POLAND - – We have been hearing fears that have been hearing – We States of the United the attitude - is changing. Ameri Europe towards that pay all to cans no longer want and instead Europe to much attention focus on domestic issues or to prefer will the United China. In your opinion, Europe? turn away from States policy – The US Administration’s has changed, and Europe towards However, this is indeed regrettable. is no that there we should not forget criti- countries shortage of European cal of the US, too. and Americans both Europeans Yet are relations know that transatlantic of utmost importance for global se- optimistic. Hence, curity, so I remain I do not believe that the strategic change policy of the US is going to our point of view, From dramatically. - less atten Lithuania may be receiving but I am certain that tion than before, maintain strong we will be able to and stable relations. of China – How do you see the role on the global stage? Does it present a security challenge or an opportu- nity for economic cooperation? cannot We – China is a superpower. this fact. During turn a blind eye to trend was only my time in office, this I think that it emerge. beginning to a chal- first and foremost, presents, our demo- to lenge for the West, and other foundational values. cratic Especially if China becomes closer with Russia. the thirtieth an- – Lithuania marked niversary of its independence. How do you see Lithuania today? – Lithuania is on the right path. Cer tain domestic issues notwithstand- ing, we achieved a lot of progress on both domestic and international a stable member of are We fronts. countries. I the club of democratic see no danger of us changing course in the future. We ought to maintain close ties maintain close ties ought to We The neighbours. with our eastern new Maidan Revolution opened in terms opportunities for Ukraine world and of joining the Western prin- implementing democratic has this exam ciples. However, Ukraine be passed. Perhaps yet to off the eco- shake still needs to dicta- of the Soviet nomic remains and that enabled oligarchs torship Yanukovych, Viktor politicians like to Russia. fled who ultimately The influence of the Kremlin let alone its strong, remains and violations military aggression integrity. territorial of Ukraine’s membership in the EU Ukraine’s does not seem very at the likely moment, but I witnessed the en- thusiasm for change among both youth and its political Ukraine’s - leaders even during my presiden now. It is even stronger cy. – How do you view the situation Do you see in Belarus today? any similarities with Sąjūdis (the Lithuanian Reform Movement) or, perhaps, the Maidan Revolution? – Lithuania has shown the world not only a democratic that we are country but also a country ready others. It lend a helping hand to to support the moral is now crucial to and unity of the Belaru- strength Way sian people. The Freedom initiative was a very good example of thousands of tens with here, Lithuanians holding hands and whose sending a clear signal as to on in the face of vio- side they are of Belarus. lence on the streets I am certain that this wave can Sooner no longer be stopped. will the spirit of freedom or later, in Belarus, with its people prevail of their own becoming masters fighting for Everyone country. will ultimately today freedom achieve it. - - -

national political forums, setting mutual goals and outlin- out clear, achieve them. ing ways to close that understood We between neighbour cooperation ing countries was the only way we out of a number of problems facing. were 2020 acceptance speech – Your - Kaczyński Pro of the Lech in the Office of metheus Award of the Republic of the President Lithuania contained the following our forget us not to line: ‘I urge The region neighbours.’ eastern underwent- a number of revolu and Ukraine Georgia tions, from and Belarus. And yet to it does not seem as if any one of these countries stand a real chance of joining the EU or NATO. How do you view the situation in neighbour countries? Lithuania’s warming of bilateral relations, but relations, bilateral warming of decade, the two over the last their share countries have also had and disagreements. of tensions a sincere to – This had been due situa- assessment of the political fully un- tion at the time. Poland of the Soviet derstands the period against occupation, the crimes by the humanity committed that have and the traumas regime - histori heal. So our shared yet to cal past was the point of connec- by tion, and it was strengthened between the personal relationship us, the two heads of state. of well-aware This is why we were the geopolitical challenges of the inter a strong shared We day. policy est in a mutually-agreed with the involve- Russia towards ment of other Baltic countries, as this was and Georgia, Ukraine, the only means of strengthening therefore We our own security. a number of new inter proposed

CONVERSATIONS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 6 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 9 CONVERSATIONS are correct, I am more than certain I am more correct, are will take that further expansion particularplace. That is also a ob- which always ligation for Poland, door policy” on the “open insisted in both organizations. seems – The EU-US relationship at the mo- be complicated to is Trump’s ment. One example some Ameri- announcement that stationed in currently can troops, and some Germany, may leave, Could this Poland. may go to shift tectonic a broader lead to Could it complicate in NATO? relations? German-Polish troops The issue of withdrawing Germany was a subject of from the long before public debate reductions and Presidency, Trump in numbers have been ongoing for a couple of decades. It has by been unnecessarily politicized as and portrayed Donald Trump Germany “punish” to a measure for its political “misbehavior” on some political issues important politics That is wrong; the US. to should not overshadow strategic Although Poland considerations. US would welcome an increased it territory, on Polish presence - place at the ex should not take capabilities NATO pense of overall should troops NATO in Europe. not Europe Central to be allocated on a political whim, but as a result of a collective decision based on enhanced ca- common strategy, pabilities and mutual interests. in the – China is the “elephant policy dis- in any foreign room” - cussion. Some say the relation ship between the US and China the to comparable is currently Most EU countries, on Cold War. be trying the other hand, seem to with balance their relationship to a choice that Beijing. Is there countries must make European I have met many Ukrainians I have met many Ukrainians and other politicians, ministers government employees in recent years. Their enthusiasm and will was true and Ukraine change to honest, but not on par with the of the administration. preparedness in the reforms terms, But in general assessed very be have to Ukraine is a dif- today positively – Ukraine country than it was in 2014.ferent be done. to But much remains – Do you think it is plausible that at least one of the Eastern countries, namely Partnership or , Georgia Ukraine, as will join the EU and/or NATO in the upcoming a member state decade (until 2030)? plau- I think that it is totally – Yes, sible that we will see these coun- and the tries joining both NATO But the political and economic EU. much higher today are hurdles back at the turn than they were Their membership of the century. on the mood depends much more countries than was the in Western waves of case during previous and will expansion, EU and NATO be decided on a “case-by-case” of basis. But if the determination persists, reform these countries to and the numbers and indicators In general terms, the terms, In general in Ukraine reforms assessed be have to very positively – is a today Ukraine country different 2014. than it was in But much remains be done. to It is of unequivocal interest to to interest It is of unequivocal is done transition him that this agreement a negotiated through violence and not decided through the It would be on the streets. if Belarus worst possible outcome scenario follows the Ukrainian 2014; all parties to have from avoid this at all costs. preferable I think a much more Poland in scenario would be like of power 1989, when the transfer was part of a political settlement and then that was first negotiated, by both sides. It enabled kept in his remain to Jaruzelski General I country and be part of society. believe such a scenario would still be best for Belarus. have been leading a – You monitoring Parliament European with together mission in Ukraine How do you evaluate Cox. Pat six years since today, Ukraine Maidan? Have the governments meet the managed to of Ukraine - of both the Ukraini expectations partners an people and Western since then? of reforms in terms – Given the challenges, the new has certainly achieved political elite years. Important a lot in recent have been carried out reforms as and many deadlocks broken, on in the case of the moratorium land. On the sale of agriculture the other hand, the expectations account into if we take higher were the level of popularity of President at the beginning of his Zełensky disappointment Today’s term. and was natural seems therefore With popularity be expected. to falling, the question is open wheth- will be able to er the political elite maintain the high pace of reforms. This will define the second part in office and term of Zełensky’s decide his chances for re-election, run again. if he decides to - up to Belarus and an attempt to to an attempt Belarus and up to - dependence on Rus its decrease is a realisticsia. Do you think this countries goal? How can Western to Belarus effectively encourage and transparent become more cooper its willingness to increase with the West? ate and peaceful fu- – A prosperous of for Belarus is in the interest ture wave of pop- all its neighbors. The against election fraud ular protests has rocked and abuse of power weeks in a the country in recent way. unprecedented previously time, I can only hope that this At Belarusian society, its leaders as well as authorities will find a way political a negotiated achieve to some signs are There agreement. – the constitutional of progress launched by Aleksandr debate Lukashenka is not a bad idea if one table the most it brings to important parties. I think that that retaining Lukashenka is aware power for 26 years is presidential and that in Europe, unprecedented will eventually time for a transition come. come – in fact it has already This is in fact the last bell. Round table talks during the in Kiev, Ukraine, Ukraine, Revolution in Kiev, : Round table talks during the Orange principal partnersthe not only in in EU and NATO. but also region, already Vilnius some extent, To role than significant plays a more foreign in some of the EU’s Poland and Lithuanian activity policy areas; and Ukraine know-how in Belarus is particularly impressive. many his- Some would say that and contemporary disputes torical - regard example – for differences rights of the ing the position and minority – still continue to Polish of Polish- the full potential restrict Undoubtedly, Lithuanian relations. serious considerations, these are but I am certain that pragmatic and good will on both cooperation sides will enable our countries and work out a satisfactory societies to modus vivendi. – Belarus is an important neigh- and bor both for Lithuania/Poland instance, the EU as a whole. For Poland’s Lithuania appreciates the to support with regard plant in Nuclear Power Astravyets Belarus. On the other hand, there willingness be a strong seems to open to countries Western from December 1, 2004. Sitting at the table, second from the left is Aleksander December 1, 2004. Sitting at the table, second from of Lithu- Adamkus, President fourth and on the left is Valdas Kwaśniewski, ) RP – www.prezydent.pl Kancelarii Prezydenta ania (© Archiwum IMAGE

– President Valdas Adamkus Valdas – President always mentions you as a key partner during his time in office, age” in describing it as a “golden Now- relations. Lithuanian-Polish seems adays, the relationship again, with improved have to (electric- close dialog on energy ity connections, synchronization, 2), infrastructure Stream Nord (Rail Baltica) and security issues What is US presence). (NATO, the place of Lithuania in Polish policy thinking? foreign – Lithuania was during my time partner of strategic and is still a key by bound together are We Poland. some of many common interests, also are which you mentioned. We by common secu- bound together rity challenges and policy vis-à-vis neighbors. Our econo- our Eastern together mies have also grown the years of EU mem- throughout from bership, which is so different the period during which Valdas on the scene. Adamkus and I were one of Poland’s Lithuania remains Lithuania remains one Lithuania remains principal of Poland’s partners not only in but also the region, To in EU and NATO. Vilnius some extent, plays a more already role than significant in some of the Poland policy foreign EU’s Lithuanian areas; activity and know- how in Belarus and is particularly Ukraine impressive.

CONVERSATIONS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 8 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 11 CONVERSATIONS that 1

ROBERT J. SHILLER ROBERT J. recognized is an internationally currently economist and author, of Professor serving as a Sterling University. Economics at Yale the his B.A. from He received 1967University of in in economics from and his Ph.D. of the Massachusetts Institute has writ- in 1972. He Technology financial markets, on financial ten econom- innovation, behavioral estate, real ics, macroeconomics, statistical methods, and on public attitudes, opinions, and moral markets. judgments regarding the Nobel Prize He was awarded in Economic Sciences jointly with and Lars Peter Eugene Fama Hansen in 2013 for their empirical analysis of asset prices. Shiller is of Lithu- Notably Mr. anian descent. His Lithuanian the 1800’s back to trace roots when Lithuania was ruled by the Russian Czar. lists a number of narratives that lists a number of narratives have become epidemic in recent years that might account for this, Con- States. especially in the United discov- were of narratives stellations by search systematic through ered News and Newspapers Proquest by keywords indicated that were “secular stag- Depression,” “Great “housing “sustainability,” nation,” – The US is the biggest economy anin the world. Observers point to phenomenon: the US interesting has been growing market stock the months, while in recent rapidly remain economic forecasts macro some, it sounds coun- For gloomy. - a solid explana Is there terintuitive. tion for it? Is it sustainable? – I published a 2020 paper behavior,” and the effort to make make to and the effort behavior,” What contagious. them more - the most important narra are behavior tives shaping Western during these uncertain times and these dominant narratives are necessarily false? narratives dangerous are – There Particularly troubling today. afloat conspiracies, about narratives are those about the “Deep State” like but that is supposedly in control about the invisible, and narratives news” which abundance of “fake temper for people to it hard make their emotions with a sense of and fact. realism - Robert Shiller during a visit to Lithuania in 2015 (© DELFI / Mindau- : Robert Shiller during a visit to Robert J.Shiller, Popular economic narratives advancing the longest U.S. expansion 2009–2019. expansion advancing the longest U.S. economic narratives Popular Robert J.Shiller, 791-798 42, Issue 4, July–August 2020, Pages Modeling Volume Journal of Policy

gas Ažušilis) IMAGE 1 Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review Policy Lithuanian Foreign talks with Linas Kojala Chief Editor Shiller on the impact of the Mr. pandemic on the global economy, as well as economic perspectives for Lithuania. Eco- – In your book “Narrative that the nomics” you argue has been economics profession the importance recognize slow to describe a nar You of narratives. as a thought virus spread rative contagion by “the word-of-mouth of ideas in the form of stories.” economics is “the study Narrative of popular spread of the viral that affect economic narratives NOBEL LAUREATE NOBEL LAUREATE SHILLER ON THE ROBERT J. DURING GLOBAL ECONOMY FORTUNATELY, THE PANDEMIC: EU OF THE IS A PART LITHUANIA - faced among the Polish demo- faced among the Polish PiS to force opposition to cratic eventually to its intention declare and Brexit) leave the EU (like attitudes the pro-European utilize have but they of the electorate, not succeeded. PiS divided society into “elites” “elites” PiS society into divided and fueled the and “true Poles” partsconflict between those of educa- society based on income, - religi tion, place of residence, anotherosity, etc. So we have the fact that the – despite paradox has enriched the transformation PiS was vast majority of Poles, those whoeffective in convincing less successful relatively were in the in fact losers that they were and that the elites transformation, a achieved their success through that disfa- corrupt political system people. “ordinary” vored the Independent institutions like constitutional court, media or as portrayed rule of law were politically corrupt organizations that cement social and political inequalities, serving the interests they Therefore, of the “elites.” by be “reconquered” needed to the interest that represent forces of the people, in other words The party and its the PiS party. political will, embodied by party leaders and not institutions, are as the only guardians portrayed of “social achievements”. the Against this background, have belief and trust that Poles in the EU is not enough to the PiS pull them away from PiS is cautious in its narrative. balancing policy against the EU, “national pride” with utilitarian- in such navigate ism, trying to a manner that it does not burn bridges with Brussels. Ideas sur What I would like to see is estab- see to like What I would kind of a EU-wide lishing some supervisorytechnical agency that certificates would issue security - infra and energy telecom for key body Such a European structure. experi- the would benefit from technical ences and accumulated to states knowledge of all EU supervise of the implementation and both Chinese from equipment in the EU. other manufacturers the In the geopolitical sphere, whether the question remains further rise of China will truly be a that 10 peaceful one. I remember years ago I was convinced while in Beijing that the military rise of China was aimed at erasing it a painful past (and preventing happening again), and not to from But that build a dominant future. was during the rule of Hu Jintao, of Xi Jinping. I the predecessor am not certain that I would leave with the same con- Beijing today viction as 10 years ago. has been in the spotlight – Poland of its judi- years because in recent regulation. and media cial reforms the country’s This has complicated with EU institutions; relationship about has even been talk there On imposing sanctions on Poland. popula- the other hand, the Polish - very much pro-Euro tion remains How pean. Is this a contradiction? do you see the situation evolving? between the at- that fissure Yes, policymakers titudes of currents and the population versus the EU But the can be called a paradox. is simple – the issue explanation of the EU was not the principal decisions driver of electorate The Law and at the ballot box. Justice (PiS) party has repeatedly won elections on the basis of issues. social and cultural

(either the U.S. or China, no (either the U.S. middle path?) Or is this debate Poland have a superficial? Does on China? strategy – I have observed certain political to efforts by the US administration particular countries, despite force and obligations other interests block China in they may have, to Some 5G infrastructure. like areas such to resistant countries were such as Germany, some pressure, go along, such as willing to more is that we do The problem Poland. is the line where not know exactly between true security concerns - own prod and lobbying for one’s put forward ucts. The explanations for not satisfactory by the US are many governments in Europe, and domestic security agencies data. contradictory provide 10 years ago I was 10 years ago convinced while the in Beijing that military rise of China was aimed a painful at erasing past (and preventing happening it from to again), and not build a dominant But that future. was during the rule of Hu Jintao, the of Xi predecessor Jinping. I am not certain that I would leave Beijing today with the same conviction as 10 years ago.

CONVERSATIONS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 10 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 13 ANALYSIS - In recent years, criticism of years, criticism of In recent the UN, not least in the press, overshadow its real to tended achievements. Beyond political façade, there - of UN pro hundreds are commissions, special- grams, of agencies and a range ized entities that other associated in sav- perform vital daily roles humanitar ing lives, providing ian assistance, promoting ian assistance, promoting and prosperity, human welfare and promoting and protecting human rights. well over 300 Only last year, and their million children support, families received assistance, services, aid and The by UNICEF. provided has responded Organization in 96 281 emergencies to countries. and adapting the Preserving in today’s system multilateral world is of significant interest Lithuania. to AUDRA PLEPYTĖ is the Permanent Representative of Lithuania the United to onNations (since 2017) and, January 14, 2020, was elected of the as the Vice-President Board of the Executive Bureau Children’s Nations of the United was Plepytė (UNICEF). Fund , Ambassador to Lithuania’s Tourism and the World Argentina 2010 until from Organization at she worked 2014. Previously of Representation the Permanent Union, the European Lithuania to the at the Lithuanian Mission to joined Nations. Plepytė United Affairs in the Ministry of Foreign for 1994. The author is grateful the article from contributions to Permanent Mission of the staff at the UN. Lithuania to IN SHORT • • • • reflect upon the relevance of the upon the reflect ask ourselves if and to UN today the institution, established some 75 years ago, still serves human- How ity in the best possible way. the and evaluate should we frame of the achievements and failures world? UN in today’s years, criticism of the In recent tended UN, not least in the press, achieve- overshadow its real to have ments. It is true that there significant been (and remain) for criticism of the UN. reasons has not been The Organization since its in- substantially reformed ception. Although its membership and major has risen dramatically, political changes in the world’s This unprecedented This unprecedented us, situation forces reflect once again, to upon the relevance and of the UN today ask ourselves to if the institution, established some 75 years ago, still serves humanity in the best possible way. anniversary of the signing of th UN AT 75. UN AT THE CHALLENGING AND FUTURE PAST AUDRA PLEPYTĖ year’ historic ‘a 2020 would Calling It seems be an understatement. all living through clear that we are a major turning point in history, one that will be studied for years In the year of a global come. to and pandemic, amidst civil unrest global turmoil, we also mark the 75 the Charter of the United Nations. of the United the Charter of celebration This long-awaited the UN anniversary is different. The landmark 75th session of Assembly (GA) the UN General 15. Yet, began on September in the General the iconic lectern which kings, Assembly Hall, from and other ministers presidents, the 193 UN member leaders from the world, had addressed states time in the the first idle. For stood of the UN, heads of states history and governments did not gather in New York at UN headquarters for the high-level week. UN halls, hallways and other physical meet- ing spaces, usually ringing with multilingual chatter the vociferous of the diplomatic jet set, remained transferred silent as events were virtual broadcasts, UN WebTV to MS Teams meetings on Zoom, and other platforms. But does it politi- if the world’s even matter cannot meet in New York cal elite this year? This unprecedented us, once again, to situation forces

in 4 6 of 167 countries 3 of the of the European 5 will be seen in the third quarter. I quarter. in the third will be seen but not it is reasonable, would think will rebound inevitable, that Lithuania A 2007 study too. concluded that “Risk sharing through concluded that “Risk sharing through is almost public transfers international for all periods and coun- non-existent tries analyzed.” dis- the globe are – Countries around invest- increase cussing the need to While ment in public health systems. the costs of the importance is clear, hospitals more care, better providing high. extremely and specialists are countries such as the US seem Even find the right balance to struggle to between quality and spending. Do you have any advice for decision- and beyond? in Europe makers – Income inequality is especially poi- health care. gnant when it comes to by a die younger, to The poor tend A 2012 study substantial margin. from 1960 to 2000 found conclusive 2000 found conclusive 1960 to from countries have evidence that smaller volatile GDP. more in larger regions Risk-sharing across have if they countries works better risk, share institutions to explicit Program such as the Equalization found that men in the highest quintile of income lived 12.5 years longer than men in the lowest quintile. women, the gap was 6.8 years. For for government is a major role There for its health insurance in providing The US has been a laggard citizens. for its health insurance on providing because of a sometimes citizens, on individual choice focus over-strong and responsibility. in Canada that became part of their in Canada the In contrast, constitution in 1982. A program. US has no such explicit 2017 study - showed that 2 strengthened by increasing inter increasing by strengthened years. in recent national mistrust improve work to all need to We - com the sense of international decoupling munity that will make unnecessary. is very as such benefi- trade – Free econo- cial for small export-based however, mies such as Lithuania; tendencies the rise of protectionist What impact is clearly noticeable. have do these global tendencies on countries such as Lithuania? Lithuania has been – Fortunately, Union since part of the European 2004. A 2019 study - within the EU has pro trade free almost a ten duced, on average, The GDP. in real increase percent 2020 election cycle in the United in signal a reduction may States US-China conflict. predicted experts – International economy is going that Lithuania’s negative consequences feel the to of the pandemic and decline by of GDP in 2020. almost 10 percent esti- the most recent However, GDP show that Lithuania’s mates this by 2 percent may only drop than year; a much lower estimate countries. in many other European Lithuania small countries like Are less vulnerable? seen a more – The US has already decline in per than 10 percent GDP in the first two capita real of If this rate of this year. quarters persist for the rest to decline were than it would mean a more of year, But it is 20% decline for the year. continue at this rate, to unlikely that a rebound and indications are - - Jan in 't Veld, The economic benefits of the EU Single Market in goods and services. Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 41, Issue 5, September–October 2019, Vol. 41, Issue 5, September–October Policy Modeling, in goods and services. benefits of the EU Single Market The economic Journal of Jan in 't Veld, 803-818 Pages Economies, Journal of the Japanese and International matters. and business cycle volatility: Scale really Country size Karras, Georgios Davide Furceri, 2007, p. 424-434 21, Issue 4, December Vol. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/federal-transfers/equalization.html Government of Canada Equalization Program. Union, 2017. Office of the European Countries. Publications Risk-sharing among European Blanco Maria Del Pilar Poncela, Filippo Pericoli, Michela Nardo, 2007: decomposition by age 1988 to by income from in life expectancy Trends Valkonen, Laaksonen, Tapani Martikainen, Mikko 1, Pekka Lasse Tarkiainen 66, Issue 7, p. 573-578. and cause of death. Epidemiol Community Health. 2012 Jul; Vol.

2 3 4 5 6 bubble,” “strong economy,” and economy,” “strong bubble,” changed Everything “save more.” pandemic. then in 2020 with the for the changes in nar Keywords ratives in 2020, as I listed them in in 2020, as I listed ratives of New a talk at the City University - “Pan “Coronavirus,” are York, - “Ameri Trump,” “Donald demic,” greatness,” “American can Dream,” “quantitative Depression,” “Great war.” and “trade easing,” – Rivalry between the US and be encompassing China seems to of international all major spheres and health trade from relations, Experts geopolitics and IT. to care that argue such as Niall Ferguson in aalready the US and China are situation. Do you see it Cold War this way? that indeed arguing – Some are war” be- is a new “cold there tween the US and China. Voices that in the US today heard are the country cannot allow itself to become dependent on China for a goods that they might cut off in The tension. time of international mistrust in the US and elsewhere that underlies such a consider ation is hard to repair. repair. to ation is hard – The pandemic has triggered and on the strengths a debate weaknesses of our societies. to is an urge instance, there For dependence Western decrease factory”, on China as “the World’s higher consumer even if it leads to Do costs and slower GDP growth. you think such Western-Chinese economic decoupling is possible and desirable? the argument – Unfortunately, for such decoupling has been

CONVERSATIONS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 12 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 15 ANALYSIS - anniversary of the UN th that multilateralism in any form au- that multilateralism a more to contributes tomatically world. Today’s stable and secure multilateralism global challenges to that are actors come not only from the underpin- actively contesting nings of the rules-based multilat- it is also driven by the order, eral and clash between democratic to In order authoritarian regimes. multilat- and reinforce restructure world, values in today’s order eral and principles must be restored for how consideration as a core nations consider democratic membership and participation in institu- of multilateral the range and coalitions. tions, fora, The 75 Putin’s Russia is also Russia Putin’s of taking advantage geopolitical current shifts, not least its by cementing convenience-led alliance with China at the UN Security Council and thus the further paralyzing work of the UNSC. provides us with a reality check: us with a reality provides pandemic and issues of the from emer the climate inequality, to - gency, battles over new technol ogies such as 5G and the virtual UNGA. Just as the pandemic has change rapidly us to to forced the way we do business, the UN cannot continue “business as ability to The UN’s usual” either. yet as long as this adapt is slow, capable remains Organization itself, I will remain of reinventing optimistic about its future. This is bad news for the United This is bad news for the United Nations and its smaller member such as Lithuania. The states, competi- jungle of great-powers tion means less global stability global insecurity, and increasing as well as devaluation of power - institutions. Pre multilateral from serving and adapting the multi- world is in today’s system lateral to Lithuania. of significant interest that stress it is important to Yet, assumed it cannot be generally China has made a significant its guiding philosophy shift from your of “Hide your strength, bide a real the lead” to time, never take and its presence to increase effort system influence in the multilateral by obtaining important first-level positions and second-level post- Russia ings in UN bodies. Putin’s is also taking advantage of current geopolitical shifts, not least by cementing its convenience-led alli- ance with China at the UN Security Council and thus further paralyzing the work of the UNSC. The five permanent members of the Security Council (China, : The five permanent members of the Security , Russia, , and ) enjoy the privilege of States) Kingdom, and United Russia, United France, for CTBTO) (© Astrid Riecken power veto IMAGE of UNICEF Board the Executive of and will hold the Presidency in 2021. The Board the Board guidance for collectively provides UNICEF activities. owned Being a member-state the UN and driven organization, deal with its own not only has to challenges and strive for internal reflection of efficiency, it is also a and global geopolitical currents shifting Today’s transformations. geopolitical sands have created the space for a new age of great is power competition. The U.S. the UN, turning a cold shoulder to international disengaging from and leaving the UN’s agreements In the organizations. specialized meantime, China, which has been its influence worldwide extending during the last decade via its development aid, investments and infrastructure in strategic than etc., appears more projects, fill this void. Bolstered eager to developments by technological economy, and its unrivaled export This huge amount of work globally is a constant lifeline, ensuring that and saved are lives children’s more while their quality of life improved, them with opportunities providing 2019, future. Since for a better Lithuania has been a member of During the last 75 years, the United Nations has provided the international community with a global platform for dialogue and enabled actions concerted in that have resulted progress remarkable as in such areas and peacekeeping peacebuilding, human rights and the Rule of Law, combating extreme poverty, food ensuring security and providing assistance in health services, education and sanitation. - - actions that have resulted in actions that have resulted in such areas progress remarkable and peacebuild- as peacekeeping ing, human rights and the Rule of poverty, combating extreme Law, - ensuring food security and provid ing assistance in health services, education and sanitation. Agenda 2030 and a set of 17 Sustainable milestone Development Goals are social in fostering agreements inequality cohesion, addressing and ensuring that no one is left be- the adoption of the hind. Through of Human Universal Declaration Rights, two Covenants and nu- conventions, the UN made merous commitment revolutionary a rather inter into that has been translated national human rights law, with the national human rights law, of individual rights and protection This has in at its core. freedoms rich a tremendously turn inspired body of legally binding international human rights treaties through expressed which human rights are The work of the spe- and secured. of agencies and programs cialized the biggest differ the UN makes and is proof ence on the ground deliver. capability to of the UN’s well over 300 million Only last year, and their families received children support, assistance, services, The by UNICEF. and aid provided to has responded Organization in 96 countries. 281 emergencies A panorama of the United Nations General Assembly taken in October 2012 (© Wikimedia) in October taken Assembly Nations General of the United : A panorama

IMAGE over the de- map have occurred the UN, and cades of its existence, especially its Security Council, is still overwhelmingly influenced by major global pow- the five the P-5, 1940s. Prolonged the late ers from political discussions and lack of long-term commit to political will to overshadowing goals are reform - actual achievements of the Orga nization. While it is true that certain lack of things must be improved, does track on the reform progress inaptitude of overall to not equate the Organization. in the public discourse, often Too understanding of the UN is the decisions of the to limited UN Security Council or high-level political discussions in New York or Geneva. But beyond political of UN hundreds are façade, there special- commissions, programs, of other agencies and a range ized entities that perform associated in saving lives, vital daily roles humanitarian assistance, providing and human welfare promoting and and protecting prosperity, human rights. The UN promoting world security, contribution to is best seen peace and prosperity During the last 75 in retrospect. Nations has years, the United com- the international provided munity with a global platform for dialogue and enabled concerted

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 14 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 17 ANALYSIS to ongoing support of strategic and ongoing support of strategic to of themilitary activities in regions by world long viewed as strategic continued unabated. the Kremlin The catastrophic The catastrophic of the surge pandemic across Russia might have another deterred some leader from blatant of the more but in “adventures,” and the case of Putin Russia, that did not have been appear to the case. US President Barack Obama and Russia's President Dmitry Obama and Russia's President Barack : US President Medvedev signed the START treaty on nuclear weapons in 2010 (seen treaty Medvedev signed the START in 2009, @Mika Stetsovski) here RUSSIAN ADVENTURISM of the surge The catastrophic Russia might pandemic across another leader from have deterred - blatant “ad some of the more but in the case of Putin ventures,” and Russia, that did not appear to have been the case. Campaigns disinformation broad from ranging IMAGE and could not avoid him jobs to shouldering the blame for the their of the pandemic to spread In August, Russia proudly regions. it had developed the proclaimed vaccine. first coronavirus world’s But without any valid clinical trials, beyond rejected it was largely Russia as being of questionable effectiveness. As a result, As a result, 1 WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard, WHO, 2020 WHO, Dashboard, Disease (COVID-19) WHO Coronavirus

Russia sealed its borders to out- to Russia sealed its borders side visitors. Russia also had no apparent spread, the for controlling strategy especially in the vast territories Much of this outside of . some core to could be attributed governance. of Putin’s tenets the beginning, he stepped From seemed what rapidly back from the greatest be turning into to his presidency. single challenge to to contain Officials did manage of the virus somewhat the spread however, Elsewhere, in Moscow. place the admin- to chose Putin in the of the crisis largely istration governors and hands of provincial mayors, most of whom owe their 1 For decades, oil had For been the lubricant enabling all varieties of Russian adventures expand to and efforts or solidify political, militarydiplomatic and lines critical to red strategic Putin’s near vision in Russia’s and further abroad afield as well. Now, with the however, global shutdown of and all business, travel varieties of economic activity, the need for dry up. oil began to rate of 5,000 per day. rate Russia also had no apparent Russia also had no apparent the for controlling strategy especially in Covid-19 spread, outside of the vast territories Much of this could Moscow. some core to be attributed governance of Putin’s tenets simply Russia seemed often advantage take be trying to to of the global chaos triggered push by the pandemic to goals some of its central The glass-is-half-full perspective is that the pan- demic will at some point – and we have certainly not the end game by reached of the imagina- any stretch - Pu like dictators tion – force their appetites restrain tin to and adjust their goals while they deal with a virus in their that respects own territories no edict or fist, no matter how firmly clenched. DAVID A. DAVID ANDELMAN, a Harvard- educated historian and formerly a foreign for The New York correspondent and CBS News in Europe Times Director and Asia, is Executive a of The RedLines Project, two-time columnist at CNN and Club winner of the Deadline for Best Opinion Writing. Award Peace: Shattered Author of “A 1919 and the Price Versailles the forthcoming Today,” Pay We Red Line in the Sand: “A and the Diplomacy, Strategy Still That Could of Wars History and its accompanying Happen,” podcast, he can Evergreen be followed on Twitter @ DavidAndelman. IN SHORT • • •

put some brakes on the plunge – put some brakes prices had leveled by September still a off at the low $40s per barrel, lower than at the start of the third By then, Russia was hardly year. feeling the pain. of coping with sanctions and Years fiscal isolation had left Russia’s good shape. economy in relatively even abroad borrow Unable to the pandemic, its largest before all but debt- were corporations their coffers bulging with cash free, they could not spend fast enough. And Russia was virtually self- At output. sufficient in agricultural was insulat- the same time, Putin effects of the toxic ing himself from the pandemic that had begun to across all but unchecked spread to Putin Russia. Covid-19 did force - postpone the nationwide referen dum on a change in the Russian constitution that would allow him to serve as president effectively that he for life, a referendum would eventually win. Meanwhile, by the Russia was being ravaged 1, the By September coronavirus. country had passed the 1 million mark in the number of confirmed fourth largest cases, the world’s and Brazil States, the United after than double the India, and more (Spain). country in Europe nearest rising at the And the cases were

PUTIN UNDETERRED PUTIN A. ANDELMAN DAVID Vladimir Putin, Russia, and For would ap- the novel coronavirus to have been at first blush, pear, the opportunity of a lifetime. On the one hand, while so many of were long-held targets Russia’s of by the sweep all but prostrated their nations, this pandemic across in the rather were Russia and Putin enviable position of being able to work their will on their foes, and clasp their friends even closer. had been the decades, oil For lubricant enabling all varieties of and efforts Russian adventures solidify political, or expand to lines diplomatic and military red vision in strategic Putin’s critical to and further near abroad Russia’s with however, afield as well. Now, the global shutdown of business, and all varieties of economic travel activity, the need for oil began to plummet, began to dry up. Prices for the high of $63 a barrel a from benchmark WTI crude in January By months later. $14 three 2020 to early April, the pain had become that Russia and Saudi so intense substantial oil to agreed Arabia cutbacks and OPEC production the action, all in an quickly ratified some equilibrium restore to effort in supply and demand and return some vestige of pre- oil prices to pandemic levels. This may have COVID LEAVES LEAVES COVID

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 16 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 19 ANALYSIS Also Also 10 and the and the 11 and was and was 12 from West Africa, announced Africa, announced West from the pandemic struck, was before be accompanied to expected by a shutdown of a $110 million as well as base in Niger, drone French the halt of assistance to fighting militants in Mali, forces and Burkina Faso. Niger, contemplating an end to the the an end to contemplating Arms Reduc- 2010 New Strategic taking the pressure off Putin’s Putin’s off taking the pressure had already Trump missile forces, announced he was pulling out of Nuclear Force the Intermediate with Russia (INF) treaty Open Skies Treaty, A substantial withdrawal A substantial withdrawal 9 At the same time, the United same time, the United the At playing right into was States hands. Over the past Putin’s and his defense Trump year, Mark Esper announced secretary of American armed withdrawals Germany, the Middle from forces East, and Africa, canceling critical In June, the United arms treaties. with- announced plans to States 9,500 of the 34,500 troops draw Some Germany. deployed to in would be deployed elsewhere but as many as 6,000 Europe, the United to would be returning States. Serbia has been toying Serbia has been toying 8 View to the Ramstein Air Base, Germany, serves as headquarters for U.S. Air Forces in Europe and is also and is also in Europe Air Forces for U.S. Base, Germany, serves Air as headquarters the Ramstein to : View Russia sends medical aid to Serbia to fight coronavirus. Reuters, April, 2020. Reuters, fight coronavirus. Serbia to Russia sends medical aid to June, 2020. Military Times, Germany. from US troops pull 9,500 plan to Pentagon approves Trump

a North Atlantic Treaty Organization installation. (© Beowulf Tomek) Organization Treaty a North Atlantic with NATO membership. And Rus- membership. with NATO sia has been cementing relations as states with such near-beyond Armenia and , offering similar help. 8 9 IMAGE of offering help with containing the of the coronavirus. spread Meanwhile, in early April, Russia territories into began reaching expansion, NATO of potential deploying chemical, biological, and nuclear defense radiological, help in Serbia to military units to decontamination and disinfec- of tion efforts against the spread Covid-19. Syria’s official Syria’s 7 and operations. In mid-March, In mid-March, and operations. Sergei Russian Defense Minister “on Damascus to Shoigu traveled instructions” to Putin’s President Bashar President meet with Syrian - al-Assad. Help with the burgeon was crisis in Syria ing coronavirus high on the agenda. request included test kits, personal included test request and medical equipment, protection Two devices including ventilators. under countries already days later, various sanctions – Russia, as well Venezuela, Syria, as China, Iran, – ap- and Nicaragua North Korea, General UN Secretary pealed to to ease these Guterres António to halt the in an effort measures, of the pandemic in their spread was no response nations. There continued Putin the plea. Still, to on the offensive, discussing how the aid of Russia might come to Recep Tayyip president Turkish minister prime Iranian Erdogan, prime Israeli Rouhani, even Hassan Benjamin Netanyahu. minister Mikhail Minister Deputy Foreign by phone with Bogdanov talked Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’s with the same aim political bureau Throughout the the Throughout of months darkest the the pandemic, Russian military to also continued its muscles and flex its demonstrate preparedness.

5 - 6 already resorting to measures that measures to resorting already while his military had perfected presidential in the U.S. intervening propaganda, elections of 2016 – a campaign media and social media Lukashenko bolster designed to vocal and undermine the more opposition. This but less adroit was in no disinformation apparatus by the pandemic. way deterred months the darkest Throughout Russian of the pandemic, the its flex military to also continued - its pre muscles and demonstrate accompanied Velikiy paredness. by the missile cruiser Marshal exer engaged in live-fire Ustinov, cises that included cruise missile launches over 250,000 square and in the Barents kilometers De- Norwegian Seas. ’s Bruun-Han- fense Chief Haakon sen said that the objective of the Russia’s test maneuvers was to access to block NATO’s ability to the Baltic, North, and Norwegian where Seas. “This is an exercise - its terri protect Russia seeks to by deploying and its interests tory highly capable ships, submarines with the purpose of and aircraft operating from NATO preventing Bruun-Hansen said. in the area,” Putin saw the Covid-19 crisis saw Putin in the Middle East as an op- his reach expand portunity to A month later, the Russian navy A month later, series of on the largest embarked off the coast of exercises live-fire Alaska since the end of the Cold – some 50 warships and 40 War part in the Bering Sea took aircraft maneuvers, which also involved multiple missile launches. - Later, at Later, Putin was was Putin 3 4 As the pandemic continued 2

Pelosi upbraids counterintel chief in private briefing over Russian meddling. Politico, July, 2020 briefing over Russian meddling. chief in private counterintel upbraids Pelosi August, 2020 Post, Washington there. already invade Belarus. It’s Russia may not need to Hanna Liubakova, July, 2020 Observer, Sea war games. The Barents Barents in large-scale than 30 Russian naval vessels open fire More 2020. August, Russian navy conducts major maneuvers near Alaska. Military Times, April, 2020. fight. Al Monitor, Russia is getting involved in Mideast COVID-19 Why Intel: Is Russia running a coronavirus disinformation campaign?, DW, March, 2020 March, disinformation campaign?, DW, Is Russia running a coronavirus to spread, other threads of the threads other spread, to Russian manipulation machine did spin and indeed only not cease to July, In late expand. continued to in a classified briefing for mem- American top bers of Congress, officer William counterintelligence that Russia was reported Evanina again, as it had in 2016, making to boost the fortunesevery effort his and destroy of Donald Trump opponent, Joe Biden. vene. The specter of in vene. The specter in 1968 1956 and Czechoslovakia One Belarus fresh. was still all too investigative journalist Hanna suggested Liubakova the height of demonstrations in the height of demonstrations neighboring Belarus, seeking to autocratic that nation’s topple Aleksandr Lukashenko, president, elec- clearly manipulated a after warned in a broadcast tion, Putin that television on Russian state should not push these protestors said, he He had created, hard. too - of law enforce reserve a “certain to inter prepared ment officers” 3 4 5 6 7 2 Indeed, Russia seemed often seemed often Indeed, Russia advantage of be taking simply to by the the global chaos triggered its push some of pandemic to the goals. And in the age of central actions were pandemic, Putin’s flagrant. increasingly proving particularly of circle, toxic Putin’s not surpris- disinformation, began, as home. As early ingly, closest to the Russian state- mid-March, news agency Sputnik dominated that “very smartwas proclaiming biologists and pharmacists” in the Covid-19 invented virus.

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 18 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 21 ANALYSIS On NATO, Trump pushed a Trump On NATO, longstanding US complaint that allies Germany and other NATO for their own provide do little to defense and added unnecessary personal vitriol against Angela change. This is set to Merkel. The most destructive division is not between within NATO but between and Merkel Trump Emmanuel President French President and Turkish Macron Turkey Erdogan. Recep Tayyip a host of foreign has created via its hyper- policy problems Its policy. foreign militarized clashes with Russia in Syria, and Libya could the Caucasus, its position in NATO – bolster is also at odds but Ankara Libya and in the in with France generally. more Mediterranean to Though Biden has promised are on Russia, there be tougher few new ideas in Washington - do.Sanctions re about what to and could be tight- main popular, is little optimism ened, but there that they will induce change in Russian behavior soon. is celebrating Europe Western defeat, but for Central Trump’s the results Europe, and Eastern of the election will be less con- clusive. The volatility that Trump policy is US foreign into injected gone. But the dilemmas posed by Russia and the divisions remain. within NATO DR. CHRIS DR. CHRIS MILLER is Assistant at Professor the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at the Foreign Director and Eurasia His most Institute. Research Policy Power book is Putinomics: recent Russia. and Money in Resurgent IN SHORT • • • • - beyond the rhetoric, the broad ar the broad beyond the rhetoric, of US security policy in chitecture – sanctions on Russia, the regions and support deterrence, NATO-led with Rus- in its struggle for Kyiv change. to sia – looks unlikely pushed a Trump On NATO, longstanding US complaint that allies Germany and other NATO for their own provide do little to defense and added unnecessary personal vitriol against Angela change. This is set to Merkel. always gets along Europe Western When it comes When it comes Russia and to President Europe, had a highly Trump unusual infatuation with Russia and its leader Vladimir However, Putin. foreign his top policy officials pursued a relatively conventional set of the policies toward articulating Kremlin, of great a strategy power competition. - BIDEN’S EUROPEANBIDEN’S DILEMMAS POLICY DR. CHRIS MILLER When Joe Biden made his first on speech as president-elect November 7, he did not mention policy once. Given that the foreign pan- faces a raging States United and a demic, a painful recession, the deeply divided political system, on events at home focus to desire was understandable. Among his con- “to priorities, Biden promised build prosper “to the virus,” trol “to care,” secure…health “to ity,” save and “to justice,” achieve racial issues International the climate.” not even on the agenda. were Over the past four years, Demo- have condemned President crats policy foreign Donald Trump’s allies and America’s for betraying the US on the world weakening stage. It is normal for presidents by their rivals, and be criticized to common for incoming presidents almost reverse to promise to have everything their predecessors Russia done. When it comes to had Trump President and Europe, a highly unusual infatuation with Russia and its leader Vladimir foreign his top However, Putin. relatively policy officials pursued a conventional set of policies toward articulating a strategy the Kremlin, power competition. Biden of great of up criticism ramp to is likely support for Russia and increase But at least rhetorically. Ukraine, and their scope of operations. We We of operations. and their scope this the glass-is-half- might call empty scenario. perspective The glass-is-half-full will at some is that the pandemic certainlypoint – and we have not any the end game by reached – force of the imagination stretch restrain to Putin like dictators and adjust their their appetites with a virus goals while they deal - that re in their own territories no matter spects no edict or fist, how firmly clenched. a global pandemic to enlarge enlarge to a global pandemic red firmly even more or embed in their own basest lines that are times, the In less fraught interests. powers in particular had western lines that Putin established red though he cross, to had not dared certainly them at every challenged a defense of any Now, opportunity. problematic, often such lines is too to of the world allowing the Putins –establish their own boundaries diplomatic, political or geographic, their territories military – expanding : Russian oil platform (@ Pixabay) David A. Andelman, Trump is about to give Putin another gift. CNN, October, 2019. another gift. CNN, October, give Putin is about to David A. Andelman, Trump Pentagon Eyes Africa Drawdown as First Step in Global Troop Shift. New York Times, December, 2019. December, Times, Shift. New York in Global Troop as First Step Africa Drawdown Eyes Pentagon 2019. Association, September, Amrs Control Withdrawal. Treaty INF Completes U.S.

10 11 12 IMAGE tion Treaty (New START) that is that is (New START) tion Treaty 2021. in February expire due to in a much All this clearly left Putin deal with the position to stronger other and a host of coronavirus challenges. two ways are Of course, there efforts.of looking at all such As I Coda ofsuggest in the concluding book, A Red Line in the my latest and Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, That Could of Wars the History are Putin Happen, rulers like Still by using the opportunity offered

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 20 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 23 ANALYSIS peans who have already signed on have already peans who coordination critical statements, to For with the US will be welcome. European and Eastern Central them countries, this may require stances controversial more take to than they would like. is celebrating Europe Western and but for Central defeat, Trump’s of the the results Europe, Eastern election will be less conclusive. injected The volatility that Trump policy is gone. But US foreign into the dilemmas posed by Russia and the divisions within NATO have The US and Europe remain. Russia from effectively deterred in Eu- further military operations and war in Ukraine the after rope have imposed substantial costs on Russia via sanctions and export a But Russia remains controls. serious challenge. Under the Biden under Obama like presidency, will need the West and Trump, continued focus on developing a - Rus deter policy to coordinated assassinations, sian cyber-attacks, and political meddling. US-China relations will be the focus of Biden`s presidency (@ Pixa- will be the focus of Biden`s presidency : US-China relations shape Biden’s foreign policy foreign shape Biden’s Europe: to regard choices with Obama and like Trump China. Like policy foreign him, Biden’s before dilemma will be focused on the his advisers of China. Biden and for being too Trump have criticized China and in confronting unilateral Europeans not working with allies. - But now Euro this, too. criticized an answer peans must develop transatlantic when Biden demands on China. coordination more think has begun to NATO seriously about how it should China, and the Biden Ad- address push will continue to ministration Coun- China seriously. take it to can expect Europe tries across if they continued US skepticism allow major Chinese investments tech. or telecoms, infrastructure, took Administration The Trump condemn China to steps unilateral and Xinjiang, in- over Hong Kong sanctions, but cluding very limited to is likely the Biden Administration demand that allies join it in stand- - Euro Western China. For ing up to bay) IMAGE - Like Trump and like and like Trump Like him, Obama before - pol foreign Biden’s icy will be focused of on the dilemma and China. Biden his advisers have for Trump criticized unilateral being too Chi- in confronting na and not working with allies. will welcome Europe Western on many change of tone Biden’s and Eastern issues, while Central - the rhetori will appreciate Europe and Russia. cal clarity on NATO other issues may create However, relations in specific bilateral tension with some countries. Many Biden policy advisers have vigor foreign - tenden autocratic ously criticized cies in countries such as Hungary as well as rightwing populism Eu- and Eastern Central across Some Biden advisers have rope. pressure tryingalso backed to adopt different such countries to in coordination policies, potentially with the EU or major European countries. This is almost certain with Hungary tension intensify to problems and could easily create Slovenia, with Poland, in relations and other countries in the region. imagine a scenario It is plausible to tension-filled in which Trump’s are Europe with Western relations by tense but replaced resolved countries key with several relations Europe. and Eastern in Central Beyond these Europe-focused will dilemmas, one other factor - Biden has promised Biden has promised on be tougher to few are Russia, there - new ideas in Wash about what to ington do. Sanctions remain and could popular, but be tightened, optimism little is there that they will induce change in Russian behavior soon. assassinations, and adventur Nor do ism in other regions. policy experts American foreign have many new ideas about how Russia might be persuaded to cut a deal on the Donbas. So, with Russia looks the stalemate continue. to most likely - its position in NATO – but Ankara – but Ankara its position in NATO in Libya is also at odds with France more and in the Mediterranean now see Many in Paris generally. - prob pressing as a more Turkey has not lem than Russia. Macron by calling NATO helped matters Biden President-elect dead.” “brain will be wary of doing anything that further out of the pushes Turkey But it will be mainstream. NATO manage the alliance when to hard two of the most militarily power and – Turkey ful member states at odds. are – France Second, though Biden has on Rus- be tougher to promised few new ideas in are sia, there do. about what to Washington and popular, Sanctions remain is but there could be tightened, little optimism that they will in- duce change in Russian behavior sup- is broad-based soon. There efforts, deterrence port for NATO but less consensus about how to Russian political meddling, deter Defence spending has risen steadily throughout the Trump presidency (© Gage Skidmore) presidency the Trump throughout : Defence spending has risen steadily

better with Democratic presidents, presidents, Democratic with better work with pledges to and Biden’s will and climate on trade Europe win friends in Brussels and many capitals. European not every in dilemma However, was policy or NATO US foreign and not every caused by Trump, by Biden. can be resolved problem issues stand out that create Four and enduring divides within NATO pose challenges for American security engagement in European the election. even after Start with the divisions within Although Americans focus NATO. tweets, the most on Trump’s destructive division within NATO and Merkel is not between Trump President but between French and Turkish Emmanuel Macron - Erdo Recep Tayyip President a host has created gan. Turkey via its policy problems of foreign Its policy. foreign hyper-militarized the clashes with Russia in Syria, and Libya could bolster Caucasus, IMAGE

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 22 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 25 ANALYSIS Democracies have have Democracies a habit of messing up, particularly in early stages of new challenges. But they have in the past demonstrated that a resilience both can astonish themselves and their adversaries, and are showing some of this now. The Kremlin continues its brazen continues its brazen The Kremlin efforts at assassination and is another neighbor, yet threatening be Belarus, whose people seem to than for their seeking nothing more count. to votes consequences could The strategic The last time the indus- get ugly. - in depres were trial democracies inward States sion, the United on the looking, and autocrats followed War we got World march, by the Cold War. is another side. Democ- But there have a habit of messing up, racies particularly in early stages of new challenges. But they have in the a resilience past demonstrated both themselves that can astonish and their adversaries, and are The showing some of this now.

3 Global Freedom Status 2020 by the Freedom House. It notes that 2019 was the 14th consecutive year of that 2019 was the 14th consecutive year It notes House. 2020 by the Freedom Status : Global Freedom Link to China Global Times editorial, 9/11/2020 by Hu Xijin, “GT” editor-in-chief. 9/11/2020 by Hu Xijin, “GT” editorial, China Global Times Link to

) (@ freedomhouse.org decline in global freedom 3 IMAGE and the world States, the United and setbacks to will be vulnerable - new waves of infection until a reli are able vaccine and/or treatment developed and widely available. that had just economies Western Reces- the Great from recovered - back in reces sion of 2007-09 are or worse and may not sion territory bottom. have seen rock and dis- With the US isolated (at least until the US tracted held elections are Presidential and and decided), and European other G7 economies hit, President Xi’s Russia and President Putin’s China may feel that the time of authoritarians has come again. China has established a for Uyghurs in Xijiang and seems menacing more have grown to its neighbors and Taiwan. toward

© Domantas Pipas, DELFI US public opinion has long between support for been torn US alliances and a leading US in the world on the one role about hand, and a skepticism the costs and responsibilities of leadership. have a habit of Democracies messing up, particularly in early stages of new challeng- es. But they have in the past that a resilience demonstrated both themselves can astonish and their adversaries, and are showing some of this now. Lithu- to Of particular interest ania, a Biden administration would also focus with greater on combating the consistency and other forms of Kremlin disinformation and on ways to combat corrupt money flows of Kremlin (one of the vectors influence). DANIEL FRIED is a Weiser Distin- Family guished Fellow at the Atlantic Council. Fried who is an American diplomat, served of as Assistant Secretary and Eurasian for European State to 2009, and 2005 Affairs from Ambassador States as United 2000. 1997 to from Poland to He also served as a Special the closing of facilitate Envoy to the Guantanamo Bay detention - camp, Cuba, and as a coordina embargoes. States for United tor the State from retired Fried 2017, Department in February 40 years of service. after IN SHORT • • • government’s role in covering up role government’s in its earlier stages the coronavirus has rightly earned it opprobrium. and many in his ad- But Trump failings China’s tout ministration excuse device to as a rhetorical - their own. The US administra from withdraw decision to tion’s as Health Organization the World punishment for its alleged failings - in the early stages of the coronavi rus pandemic is another example attacks unproductive of Trump’s and organizations on international approach a US multilateralism, but that did not begin with Trump Another US one he has intensified. might have chosen to President to man- effort lead an international age the pandemic. cannot Meanwhile, US citizens much of the world, includ- to travel and most of Europe ing Canada a major obstacle and Asia, creating the sort of soft-power leadershipto which the US is accustomed. to is a the coronavirus be sure, To itself is Europe problem. tough and not out of the woods. France experiencing Spain in particular are a major second wave of new infec- Indeed, Europe, tions. So is Israel. Trump may also may also Trump 2

); failing to mobilize the the mobilize ); failing to 1

Bob Woodward’s interviews with President Trump. with President interviews Bob Woodward’s convalescent plasma therapy, which is minimally effective at best, or Hydroxychloroquine, Pushing more thus creating touted, effective but not as much as the administration which may be moderately public confusion and doubt.

US around measures known to known to measures US around - be effective in limiting the corona (social distancing spread virus’s and mask wearing); and applying quick tout to political pressure relatively use- pushing either fixes, effective less or only moderately (and publicly suggest- treatments which ing ingesting detergent, could be lethal). 1 2

POST-CORONAVIRUS DANIEL FRIED pandemic The ongoing coronavirus is less a game changer and more (and of international an accelerant both bad and good. US) trends, First, the bad news: President - has bungled the US re Trump poor leadership at sponse through home. That includes deliberately minimizing its danger early on (as Trump’s we now know through own words US LEADERSHIP US LEADERSHIP be preparing to push his adminis- to be preparing rush a vaccine for public to tration for it is fully tested use before safety and effectiveness. This is performa- with Trump’s consistent than substantive style tive rather of governing. - also deployed his unilateral Trump ist (and blame-seeking-first) ap- aspect the international to proach of the pandemic. The Chinese

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 24 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 27 ANALYSIS - The failure to spend even to The failure 2% of GDP on close to defense (spending hov- 1.3%), the ers at around of its armed lamentable state and the readiness, forces’ timidity with which Germans in – let alone initi- participate within debates – strategic ate the EU all serve and/or NATO as valid points is the only Germany Yet nation continental European leading one of the four bat- up NATO’s talions that make enhanced forward rotating , in Poland, presence Latvia, and Lithuania. not Germany to It is up to but steadfast just remain clearly and more explain to rationale. openly its strategic DR. PATRICK DR. PATRICK KELLER is the Vice of President the Federal Academy for Security Policy He was chief in Berlin, Germany. German defense to speechwriter Ursula von der Dr. ministers Kramp-Kar and Annegret Leyen The views expressed renbauer. his own. are here IN SHORT • • • - - glance at what has been hap- North-East. In pening in NATO’s aggression Russia’s to response and its illegal against Ukraine of Crimea in 2014, annexation re-emphasized immediately NATO defense. task of territorial its key not just Allies in the East received of solidar reassurance rhetorical military measures ity but concrete that send a clear signal, warning Moscow against any infringement. Germany has been at the forefront both conceptu- of this response, importantly, ally and, even more on the ground. one of the innovations of Take summit, the Very the 2014 Wales Force, High Readiness Joint Task a quick response-spear or VJTF, In addition, Germany In addition, Germany is the only continental nation European leading one of the four battalions that up NATO’s make enhanced rotating presence forward Estonia, in Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania. - ROCK SOLID: ROLE IN GERMANY’S AND DEFENSE DETERRENCE NORTH-EAST IN NATO’S KELLER DR. PATRICK catch trees Just as the largest in role the most wind, Germany’s security policy is prone European criticism and skepticism. much to - – in population, terri Given its size wealth – its enviable politicaltory, stability (Chancellor Angela Merkel and president U.S. is on her third her seventh Italian prime minister), location at the and its geographic continent, heart of the European allies and partners in Europe ac- contribute Germany to expect common defense the to cordingly expect this contri- effort. And they financial to not be limited bution to and military means, but rather political leadership as include to well. Some call it the Spider-Man Doctrine: With power comes great responsibility. great the German govern- Frequently, task for not living to ment is taken – not the this responsibility up to least by domestic critics. The fail- 2% of spend even close to to ure GDP on defense (spending hovers 1.3%), the lamentable at around - readi of its armed forces’ state ness, and the timidity with which in – let alone Germans participate within debates – strategic initiate EU all serve and/or the as NATO valid points. a very differ tell And yet: To it is necessaryent story, only to on 7 If Biden wins, it is 6 and years of economic stresses of economic stresses and years but in ways more have generated, than those of the Trump consistent Administration. not hard to discern the direction of discern the direction to not hard a policy moves: their early foreign re- to is likely Biden administration Agreement Climate join the Paris the out to reach and the WHO, with EU and other democracies resist to to combine forces offers and Chinese aggression Putin’s of the international exploitation halt threats economic system, out of South US forces pull to picking and and stop Korea Canada fights with second-order In doing so, it would and Europe. political capital enormous generate use. it could then put to Lithuania, to Of particular interest would also a Biden administration on consistency focus with greater and other combating the Kremlin forms of disinformation and, as Biden has himself indicated, ways to combat corrupt money ways to - of Krem flows (one of the vectors lin influence). back reach would have to Europe and work with the US. A first might Biden summit with Europe in relief general be easy due to But ouster. Trump’s from Europe a second summit would have to not inevitable That’s show results. of but it is well within the realm the possible. neo-iso- Trump’s The coronavirus, have com- lationism, Xi, and Putin the into put a good scare bined to now We community. transatlantic think about fixing it if the need to tweak an opportunity arises. To we should never let a old phrase, go experience good near-death waste. to 5 , even as President Trump Trump , even as President 4 has argued against US alliances. has argued also support for NATO European strong. remains dangers All this suggests potential for a material but also the raw comeback. Trump’s democratic and weak rhetoric neo-unilateralist pandemic are the to response giving both Americans and their allies a look at what democratic with- the world might look like out US leadership. It isn’t pretty. That sobering look could drive and, fix problems to democracies the Western take above all, not to repurpose To alliance for granted. an old Polish- a famous line from “is Lithuanian epic poem, the West good health, we miss you only like gone.” when you are liances and a leading US role in a leading US role liances and the one hand, and the world on costs and about the a skepticism Long of leadership. responsibilities wars in Iraq years of inconclusive perceptions and Afghanistan, and - inte about the costs of economic with the world, have fueled gration in the US. neo-isolationist thinking of the coronavirus The stresses such trends. increase probably remains But US support for NATO high Happily, former Vice President President Happily, former Vice seems policy team foreign Biden’s US alliances, to committed more - is prop especially with Europe, with erly wary of another “reset” of China’s skeptical and Putin having learned that intentions, with economic integration China’s political the world has not led to convergence. Biden speaks of harness- Team power of the great ing the latent the address to democracies anxieties that the coronavirus - Atlantic Council 8/21/20 blog from a discussion with Jake Sullivan. a discussion with Jake Council 8/21/20 blog from Atlantic 2020 edition. March/April Affairs” article from Biden “Foreign 77% of Americans agree that the NATO alliance should be maintained, according to a Gallup poll from March 2019, reflecting a steady trend since the mid-1990s. trend a steady 2019, reflecting March a Gallup poll from to alliance should be maintained, according that the NATO 77% of Americans agree Tadeusz”. “Pan for Mickiewicz’s, reverence With the greatest

4 5 6 7 EU this past summer overcame EU this past summer overcame on and agreed earlier differences to a major fiscal stimulus package help governments deal with the economic hit. The US pandemic’s with Reserve also acted Federal do much the same and speed to (and some parts the US Congress overcame of the administration) and passed huge habitual paralysis - stimulus bills early on that pre economic collapse. Rather vented both protectionism, to than race the US and EU have been thinking dependence reduce about ways to for on supply chain vulnerabilities for which China is critical products Trump’s a sole or critical supplier. are notwithstanding, there rhetoric many on both sides of the Atlantic develop common eager to who are economic vulner to approaches by the abilities made apparent the That could provide coronavirus. basis for common economic poli- off-and-on than Trump’s cies rather major wars with the US’s trade partners. trading US public opinion has long been between support for US al- torn US public opinion US public opinion torn has long been between support for US alliances US and a leading in the world role on the one hand, and a skepticism and about the costs of responsibilities leadership.

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 26 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 29 ANALYSIS - - 8.7 0.64 9.5 1.10 10.4 1.16 11.4 1.20 12.1 1.27 15.1 1.33 NATO guideline 20% guideline NATO NATO guideline 2% guideline NATO 1.43 16.6 16.7 1.43 1.45 16.8 sitting down at all to talk and to talk and to sitting down at all to - is the most prom seek agreement ising strategy. about German In truth, the debate vis-à-vis Russia points to reliability even deeper challenges for Ger many – and perhaps Europeans in many – and perhaps Europeans Do we accept that there general. and way our freedom to threats are theater of life, both in the European and on a global level? That we are or dependent on an international der we have contributed relatively relatively der we have contributed uphold? little to With of the U.S. the changing role autocratic and the challenge from must powers, we Europeans our attitude toward recalibrate sys- broadly, defense and, more competition. This translates temic all fields of domestic and into - technologi policy – from foreign of our the state cal innovation to and the (under-) armed forces performance of EU neighborhood for true of room Plenty programs. leadership, indeed. 17.3 1.47 17.4 1.47 19.0 1.48 - 19.3 1.57 2020e 22.4 1.63 2020e 1.86 23.0 -3- 1.87 23.2 2014 1.91 2014 23.2 1.91 24.6 1.93 25.6 2.03 25.7 ropeans wary of too much close- wary of too ropeans ness between Berlin and Moscow. the power to It is a testament that decades of Ger of history as well as economic man rhetoric sanctions against Russia since 2014 and the tangible efforts at notmilitary solidarity with allies are this sensitiv- overcome enough to Germany it is up to Therefore, ity. but to steadfast not just remain to clearly and openly its more explain rationale. strategic to instance, the German refusal For in Eastern troops station let NATO in a permanent member states fashion might than rotating rather some. But to to be exasperating commitments NATO’s stick to - Found under the NATO-Russia ing Act, even though Russia has is of it many times over, violated immense value. It allows the Alli- maintain the high ground – ance to As long as and use it as leverage. it clear on which Germans make sitting, side of the table they are (based on(based 2015exchange prices rates) and on(based 2015exchange prices rates) and 2.11 26.0 26.2 2.28 26.5 2.30 28.8 2.32 Graph 3 : Defence expenditure as a share of expenditure (%) a share GDP as 3 :Graph Defence 2.38 28.9 2.38 29.2 2.43 33.6 Graph 4 :Graph Equipment of expenditure expenditure (%) a share defence as 2.58 36.9 3.87 37.5 5 0 % Defence expenditure as a share of GDP (%) in 2014 and 2020 (© NATO) of GDP (%) in 2014 and 2020 as a share : Defence expenditure % 15 10 1.5 1.0 40 35 30 25 20 4.0 3.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 2.5 2.0 Notes: Figures2020 for are estimates. Notes: Figures2020 for are estimates. TABLE ture – both in terms of bureaucratic of bureaucratic both in terms ture – grid – and actual traffic process that allows for smooth movement In all of Europe. across of forces Germany is in the these measures, seat. driver’s front? well on the Eastern So, all’s for is room Of course, there in the troops NATO improvement. could and should do more region the contin- and joint exercises, be more gency planning needs to realistic. specific and obvious and rather But these are fun- On a more steps. next likely the remains damental level, there question about German perennial Allies ask themselves: reliability. shove, will When push comes to for be there the Germans really us? The occasional discouraging among the German polling result people fans this worry, as does the unwillingness among German elites II for the Nordstream recognize to geopolitical ploy it is. Experience Eu- and Eastern has made Central Russia is regarded as overblown. To overblown. To as Russia is regarded tangible German the the contrary, is Baltic security commitment to the of reassessment part of a larger security German and Euro-Atlantic in accepted situation. It is widely the that German security circles decades onfocus of the last two out-of-area stabilization missions of territorial came at the expense imbalancedefense – and that this As a conse- be repaired. has to quence, German military planning struc- force and the Bundeswehr’s fundamentally. have shifted ture This is evident in the revised the Baltic German policy toward Sea as well. Germany, accepting as the largest its responsibility states maritime power of all NATO the Baltic Sea, has bordering established the Maritime Forces which can plan in Rostock Staff operations and command NATO into It will soon grow in the region. Baltic Maritime Compo- a larger nent Command, complementing in the land and air efforts already place and signifying a thorough understanding of the broader security situation in the region. Finally, Germany is addressing criticism of the the most trenchant initiatives of 2014: The worry that few simply too are forces NATO a Rus- stem to and far-between sian attack by conventional means. sitting the EFP and VJTF are True, at best. Unless, ducks, trip-wires that is, capable reinforcements action swiftly. into can be brought Hence, the establishment of NATO’s new Joint Support and Enabling Command in Ulm, Germany is of bi- NATO’s significance. As are utter like exercises annual reinforcement DEFENDER (which, unfortunately, this year due be minimized had to pandemic). In the Coronavirus to Union’s the European this context, of military mobilityPESCO project - the infrastruc is crucial in creating -vis man defense ministers have stated have stated man defense ministers as that the Bundeswehr will remain long as it is welcome. As the threat diminish to is not likely Russia from any time soon and since German reception enjoy a cordial troops is no in their host countries, there German with- expect to reason cause. this common from drawal - this German commit Moreover, be confused with a ment is not to attitude of somewhat paternalistic allies Eastern of antsy reassurance vis-à perception whose threat As the threat from from As the threat Russia is not likely diminish any time to soon and since enjoy German troops in reception a cordial their host countries, is no reason there German expect to this from withdrawal common cause. - German troops on arrival to Lithuania (© Ministry of of Defence on arrival to : German troops

Lithuania) IMAGE head of 5,000 soldiers. Germany was crucial in its implementation and last served as its lead nation in 2019 – and will again in 2023. Germany servedLikewise, as of the lead nation in the creation Multinational Command Center Poland, Northeast in Szczecin, - in re relevance which is of key gional defense planning. In addition, Germany is the only nation continental European leading one of the four battalions rotating up NATO’s that make in presence enhanced forward Latvia, and Lithu- Estonia, Poland, stationed are ania. (German troops in Lithuania; other EFP lead nations Kingdom, the United U.S., the are The German-led and Canada. to be was the first battle group And last but not least, ready.) NATO to Germany has contributed air policing over the Baltics since in 2004. This task has only grown and Germany has as- relevance, in sumed (again) a leadership role 2020, contributing 180 September aircraft. soldiers and six Eurofighter subject None of these efforts are change. In fact, successive Ger to

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 28 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 31 ANALYSIS and the Warsaw Pact in February in February Pact and the Warsaw the So- Shevardnadze, 1990, only - Af of Foreign Minister viet Union’s East Berlin fairs, and his long-time (who was colleague Oskar Fischer spoke out one month later) voted Germany. out in favor of a neutral same meet- On the sidelines of the ministers ing in Ottawa, the foreign their and of the two German states - Pow the “Four colleagues from the United States, the United ers,” and the Soviet Kingdom, France on the “2+4” format Union, agreed for negotiations on German unity. was ultimately The agreement concluded because Moscow yield- security policy interests the ed to at the price of Allies of the Western Germany. economic support from Bush had set this course with his saying, the “Chancellor has On July 16, 1990, deep pockets.” an and Gorbachev came to Kohl payments which led to agreement amounting Moscow Bonn to from D-Marks, which were 15 billion to cover the costs of the to intended of the Soviet armed withdrawal In unified Germany. from forces Accords, that a “united Germany that a “united Accords, about should decide for itself its political status concerning a the Ultimately, military alliance.” at the agreed Soviet head of state its initial to of NATO founding site East. the to expansion In this way, Gorbachev enabled or of the approval at least facilitated pow- European the two Western The German unity. ers of 1945 to were Kingdom and France United of German Unity just as skeptical which, states, as other European - Pow did not have “Four however, - er” the inten status. They shared military continue Germany’s tion to the meeting of At incorporation. of both NATO ministers the foreign Ultimately, the Soviet the Ultimately, agreed head of state site at the founding initial its to of NATO East. the to expansion Berlin 1989; picture taken soon after the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9 (© Raphaël Thiémard) the fall of the Berlin Wall soon after taken : Berlin 1989; picture IMAGE the international context into ac- into context the international Kohl On the following day, count.” in the second sentence interpreted question: a journalist’s to response imagine a “Could the Soviet Union “Yes, Germany in NATO?”– united denial was no There of course.” which also did not Moscow, from dec- David comment on the Camp - of Feb by Bush and Kohl laration a com- share ruary “We 25, 1990: Germany mon belief that a unified of the a full member should remain Organization, Treaty North Atlantic including participation in its military a “special mili- Merely structure.” for the tary status” was foreseen the former GDR. of territory and Bonn stuck to Washington on the this position. In Moscow, for other hand, demands arose to be neutral. a unified Germany mem- Gorbachev described NATO offi - , the CPSU’s bership in Pravda 7, 1990, on March cial newspaper, unaccept- as being “completely May 31, 1990, on However, able.” by in Washington he was received Bush, who confronted President the Helsinki to him with reference - Germany’s unity was Germany’s built upon trust between partners in the East and that not long before West each other had considered enemies. In 1990 no commitments made form were in written former whether as to member Pact Warsaw than the GDR other states join would be allowed to Treaty the North Atlantic An eastward Organization. has of NATO enlargement simply not been discussed it- within the organization Pact. self or in the Warsaw nevertheless did NATO not permanently deploy member states to troops Russia even af- bordering condemned it strongly ter actions the “aggressive and the against Ukraine” an- “illegal and illegitimate of Crimea.” nexation ANDREAS VON GEHLEN VON ANDREAS Science and studied Political Economics in Bonn, Berlin, and Cairo/ Altdorf/Switzerland of theEgypt. He was a member People’s of the European Bureau to delegate (EPP) and is a Party Union’s the Christian Democratic (CDU) party conventions. His ar include foreign eas of experience and security policy, especially Union, focusing on the European the Middle East and Eastern Europe. IN SHORT • • • one inch eastward,” and added one inch eastward,” territory of NATO extension “any would be unacceptable.” 10, 1990, on February In return, the German Chancellor received - Sec General the from assurances of the CPSU that “the deci- retary sion on the unification of Germany was a question that the Germans must decide for themselves.” “take they would have to However, - bring NATO closer to the USSR the USSR closer to bring NATO of , regardless (at least de jure deployments). the Genscher invented Thereby, of the frequently contradiction of the West “assurance” quoted would be no eastward that there A week later, of NATO: expansion of Secretary States the United the assured James Baker, State, of the Com- Secretary General of the Soviet Union munist Party head of state, (CPSU) and de facto to with regard Mikhail Gorbachev, negotiations on German Unity that present “not an inch of NATO’s in an military jurisdiction will spread day, The next direction.” eastern Gor assured additionally Kohl “would not shift bachev that NATO The fact that the The fact that the question of German Unity could not be separately answered questions from concerning future military alliances became in Europe in early apparent 1990. - -

man Unity could not be answered man Unity could not be answered con- questions from separately military alliances in cerning future in early became apparent Europe 1990. Hans-Dietrich Genscher, for the FRG, minister the foreign that a unified Germany declared should be a member of NATO; NATO no foreign however, should be deployed on troops of the former GDR. the territory of enlargement In addition, “an the East, i.e. to territory NATO of the Soviet the border closer to In place.” Union, […] will not take clear assurance this apparently Minister Foreign given by Bonn’s - Moscow lies the contradic to membership for tion that NATO all of Germany would inevitably DR. ANDREAS VON GEHLEN, MBA (BERLIN) GEHLEN, MBA DR. ANDREAS VON Curtain, Since the fall of the Iron - developments in Germany repeat blueprints for Europe edly provided Ger as a whole. While the Eastern Republic (GDR) man Democratic closest was one of Moscow’s Federal German allies, the Western firmly on Republic (FRG) stood The States. the side of the United - a “special rela maintained latter personified by then US tionship,” Bush and H.W. George President which not Chancellor Helmut Kohl, of only enabled the reunification Germany, but also paved the way the East. to expand to for NATO The fact that the question of Ger 30 YEARS GERMAN 30 YEARS 30 YEARS NATO UNITY – TO THE EAST ENLARGEMENT

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 30 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 33 ANALYSIS After the first post-Soviet decade After was made largely in which history its perceived without Russia and to - successor gradu detriment, Yeltsin’s the advantage and did so ally seized national con- on the basis of growing fidence and collective self-respect. a are in Khabarovsk The protests of template warning that Putin’s and post-election management pre- might finally be running its course. those who chal- to his response Yet is unchanged: lenge this template manipulation, vilification and pressure foreign A catalogue of unexpected policy challenges, some artfully man- aged and some poorly managed, efforts the Kremlin’s has not dented dimin- use the means available to to ish further the supposedly inexorable “hegemony” of Western erosion - say attractive and the sway, not to order. ness, of the liberal-democratic of such the rewards [...] Whatever conduct at home, its most conspicu- have been the abroad ous results - of Germany and a pro estrangement defense Sweden’s increase to gram budget by 40 percent. JAMES SHERR JAMES SHERR of is Senior Fellow Foreign the Estonian at Institute Policy the International for Defence Centre He is and Security. the Russia of Fellow also an Associate of Chatham Programme and Eurasia of the Fellow House, a Senior Associate Fellow a Visiting of Statecraft, Institute a and (Kyiv) Centre of the Razumkov of the Fellow Policy former Bosch Public Academy of the German Transatlantic in Washington. Marshall Fund over 25 years, he has been regularly For governments on by Western consulted defence and security policies the foreign, and since of the Russian Federation in1995 has had an active advisory role working closely with the defence Ukraine, and security establishment. Since 1991, to visitor James has been a frequent and its Baltic neighbours before Estonia in January 2019. taking up residence IN SHORT • • • One would have to discard one’s one’s discard One would have to be oblivious of own memory to between the dy- the contrasts namic Russia of the early Putin vengeful years, the righteously Russia of 2008 and 2014 and the policies. After frozen today’s first post-Soviet decade in which without was made largely history detri- its perceived Russia and to - successor gradu ment, Yeltsin’s the advantage and ally seized did so on the basis of growing national confidence and collec- Not only did the tive self-respect. much new leadership reverse geopolitical decline of Russia’s (and even, in much of the West, of its irrelevance), a perception it combined this achievement for the first time with prosperity In 2008, than a century. in more its titular Western Russia took partners by surprise; in 2014, it - the gram revise them to forced mar of conflict and war. But in 2020, it is Russia that finds itself beset with surprises in it. every domain of importance to leadership has Russia’s Today, for others, but the little respect country over which it presides has far less confidence in itself and faith in those who govern it. Imbued with the conviction that has lost (pace Lavrov) the West its “monopoly of the globaliza- THE PARADOX OF OF THE PARADOX DECLINE RUSSIA’S JAMES SHERR decline of Russia’s The paradox to no difference is that it makes that it poses. On every the threat is chal- the state where front has been com- lenged, retreat - bined with attack and a determi show that, regardless nation to of consequences, it will not back down. Now as in the past, the business school metric of profit choice maximization and rational culture on Russia’s runs aground its methodology of of power, conflict management and its of maxi- purposeful extraction means the finite mum utility from at its disposal. The expectation that the ebbing away of Russia’s economic and innovative capac- ity, along with the “punishment” a will foster of its transgressions, its approach of reconsideration a hope and objectives remains by evidence. unsupported is regime all this, the Putin For by dogma and is encumbered of “nega- Years partially sighted. of tive selection” in all branches the shrinkage of permis- power, sible space for constructive - the diversion of creativ discord, into policy and statecraft ity from enrich- clan rivalry and private all finally diminishing ment are analytical capability the country’s most: in the it matters where anticipation of danger. - importance. The geostrategic importance. The geostrategic leader of the Soviet intention the reduce to ship was not troops distance between NATO and Moscow. - in the “Found This is reflected Russian ing Act” between the dating and NATO, Federation also on 1997. However, from to the eve of the accession Re- the Alliance of the Czech public, Hungary Poland, and rule out it did not completely of a “permanent stationing in substantial combat forces” Europe. Eastern nevertheless did not NATO permanently deploy troops bordering states member to it strongly Russia even after condemned the “aggressive and actions against Ukraine” an- the “illegal and illegitimate - Accord of Crimea.” nexation Summit Warsaw the ing to Communiqué 2016, NATO’s Presence enhanced Forward deployed on are (eFP) troops basis.” a “rotational 3. 4. in geopolitical situation Today’s 30 years ago emerged Europe Curtain. the fall of the Iron from unity was built upon Germany’s trust between partners in the that not long East and West each had considered before other enemies. Meanwhile, trust did vanished, however tensions Cold War to not yet escalate “to levels. The Helsinki provision treaties be a party to be or not to safe- of alliance” continues to right. On every country’s guard Plus this foundation, the “Two on the station- paragraph Four” on armed forces ing of foreign of the former GDR the territory a blueprint: A could provide distance between re-increased a remains both sides’ troops challenging disarmament mis- peace preserve to sion in order on our continent. - In 1990 no commitments in made as to form were written Pact whether former Warsaw other than member states the GDR would be allowed to Treaty join the North Atlantic An eastward Organization. has sim- of NATO enlargement ply not been discussed within itself or in the the organization Pact. Warsaw In the absence of agreements demarcation on the Eastern paragraph the cited of NATO, - Agree Plus Four of the “Two ment” is of ongoing political military status” that Bush and David, upon in Camp agreed Kohl At the contract. made its way into debate the end of a controversial Soviet, the USSR’s in the Supreme highest legislative body, on March 4, 1991, the Soviet Union was the Plus adopt the “Two to last state Agreement.” Four Germany regained 30 years after in unity, debates full sovereignty ongo- concerning its impacts are assur Western to ing. With regard enlarge Moscow not to ances to four points can eastwards, NATO be determined: 1. 2. - Graffiti Portrait of Gorbachev on the Berlin Wall in Germany (@ Pixy) of Gorbachev on the Berlin Portrait : Graffiti

return, the “Treaty on the Final on the “Treaty return, Ger Settlement with Respect to many” (more commonly known as many” (more Agreement”), Plus Four the “Two 12, 1990, signed on September comple- the “Following stipulates: of the Soviet tion of the withdrawal of the territory from armed forces German Democratic the present Republic and of Berlin, units of assigned German armed forces in military alliance structures to the same way as those in the rest may also be of German territory stationed in that part of Germany, but without nuclear weapon carri- and armed forces ers. […] Foreign nuclear weapons or their carriers will not be stationed in that part of Germany or deployed there.” 3) Thus, the (Article 5, Paragraph “special territory former GDR’s IMAGE The geostrategic The geostrategic of the Soviet intention leadership was not to the distance reduce troops between NATO and Moscow.

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 32 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 35 ANALYSIS - This catalogue of unexpected chal- of unexpected This catalogue artfullylenges, some and managed has notsome poorly managed, to use efforts the Kremlin’s dented fur diminish to the means available - ero inexorable ther the supposedly “hegemony” and sion of Western say attractiveness, the sway, not to order. of the liberal-democratic Ocean Shield” in August “Exercise to the Baltic region 2020 exposed a scale of Russian military activity not witnessed and provocativeness years. Economic and so- in several have only whet Rus- cial burdens for cyber assaults, appetite sia’s which have the merit of being cost- effective as well as deniable. The of hacking not only targets latest include the Norwegian parliament, but the OPCW and US laboratories developing vaccines against the exposing virus, thereby COVID-19 campaign the cynicism of Russia’s the pandemic as a new trumpet to cooperation. of international theatre The development of a new strain of Novichok and its employment Navalny, a figure against Alexei whose significance is so ridiculed to that it refuses by the Kremlin speak his name, has had the sole from attention merit of distracting of assaults and murders a spate - scientists, academic re targeting - and medical profession searchers the shifting and ever als who cross lines of permissible invisible more criticism and dissent. disclosure, of such the rewards Whatever conduct at home, its most con- have been abroad spicuous results of Germany and the estrangement Sweden’s increase to a program defense budget by 40 percent. Habit has gained the upper hand in the citadel of over intellect guess and it is anyone’s power, leadership will face when Russia’s this fact and conduct an audit of its own performance. - - - prevented them. Russia’s partners them. Russia’s prevented - per Minsk Group in the OSCE of post-Cold haps the sole format its preserve to cooperation War – never challenged relevance standing as first amongst Russia’s nor Azer equals. Neither Armenia so. do to baijan had the capacity good or ill, this was a closed For as the emergence game. Turkey’s offensive enabler of ’s now has (and its military revival) and up the playbook. Here torn has become a Turkey elsewhere, in its own right, actor determinant with its own distinctive scheme of geopolitical interests. can be made – An argument as indeed it has been – that the scene entry onto Turkey’s Russia a conve- has afforded if nient means of embarrassing, Prime not crippling, Armenia’s whose Pashinyan, Nikol Minister have en- proclivities Europhile mounting Russian dis- gendered a made Pashinyan Yet pleasure. his “deviation” from swift retreat first defeats of Armenian the after arms. Nevertheless, one Russian ceasefire and one US-brokered curb either Azer have failed to baijan’s ardor or halt its territorial or halt its territorial ardor baijan’s deployment advance. Turkey’s of jihadis in support of hundreds serves no con- of Azerbaijan Even ceivable Russian interest. less conceivable is the possibil- ity that Russia would abandon excluding its primary interest: the from competitors external In 2008 Russia South Caucasus. in fought a war with Georgia this point. That make to order this achieve- it would surrender ment for momentary gain defies both logic and experience. image say, Russia’s Needless to and standing in both Armenia have been dimin- and Azerbaijan ished, indeed damaged. - determination to rule without con- to determination it has diminished the possi- straint, bility of a post-Lukashenka regime more Russia’s that would secure deeper fundamental interests: economy Russia’s into integration (which Lukashenka has doggedly its to its adherence and resisted) geopolitical policy (which, with has Lukashenka Ukraine, to regard also opposed). By these means, Svitlana has transformed Putin a construc- from Tikhanovskaya a revolutionary tive opponent into leader and has pushed her more heavily-Russophile allies, Valery Babarika, into and Viktar Tsepkalo of significance. The the margins longer Russian money finances the instruments of Lukashenka’s the less favorably repression, Russia Belarus disposed towards become. to is likely it is in Nagorno-Karabakh Yet that the survival of established is most dramatically paradigms Since the ceasefire threatened. of 1994, Russian inter accord ests have defined the art of the possible, whether it connived in conflicts, acquiesced in them or Turkey’s emergence emergence Turkey’s of as the enabler offensive Azerbaijan’s (and its military has now torn revival) up the playbook. and elsewhere, Here become has Turkey a determinant in its own actor right, with its own distinctive scheme of geopolitical interests In Belarus, the Kremlin is manag- In Belarus, the Kremlin confound its op- ing not only to its potential ponents but alienate allies. What it possesses is a clear understanding of its own self- defeating objectives. The first, of importance, is that there absolute - revolu “colored” be no more tions in “former Soviet space,” of how well disposed irrespective might be to the revolutionaries Russia itself. The second is that Russia and Russia alone is the of Alyaksandr of the terms arbiter survival and his Lukashenka’s The principal means departure. objective is for securing the latter package for Lukashenka a rescue enfeeble him that is designed to of constitutional and, by a process to diametrically opposite reform – launched in the one so recently it with the means Russia – provide end his and ultimately dilute to - not only has this strata Yet power. curb Lukashenka’s gem failed to

1 tion and pressure. Not only did the tion and pressure. the public anticipate fail to Kremlin effective abduc- its to response governor,” tion of the “people’s - and his incarcera Furgal, Sergey prison, Lefortovo tion in Moscow’s display a marked it continues to sensibili- for the region’s contempt Alexander Like ties and interests. eminence grise, Konstantin III’s (who described Pobedonostev subjects as “soft wax”), the Tsar’s election of today’s the curators and administrative technology believe that appear to resources infinitely people are ordinary malleable. Within these flawed is the Kremlin of reference, terms of pursuing a calculating strategy maneuver and attrition, menacing than crushing its opponents rather that its them, and demonstrating The affair is inexhaustible. tenacity a sod in the “stink like continues to has been averted. but a fire oven,” The question is, for how long? - Protests in Khabarovsk Krai, Russia, began in Summer 2020 in support of the then governor, Sergei Furgal, Furgal, Sergei in Summer 2020 in support Russia, began of the then governor, Krai, in Khabarovsk : Protests ], izminilos’ v Khabarovske? dva mesyatsa. Chto proshlo Furgala [S aresta What has changed in Khabarovsk?” arrest. months have passed since Furgal’s “Two 2020: https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-54106363. BBC Russian Service, 11 September

after his arrest (© Incredible Terence) (© Incredible arrest his after 1 tion process,” Russia’s governing governing Russia’s tion process,” establishment lacks the stimuli that in the mid-1980s persuaded its its reassess to Soviet predecessor and inter fundamental premises outcomes and the ests. Lose-lose containment of challenges, rather now substi- than their resolution, positive and enduring more for tute reactive ap- A definitions of victory. as well as overconfidence proach outdated but increasingly in tested can now be observed stratagems A both at home and abroad. who once embodied and president shaped the public mood is now society from isolated increasingly voices. ordinary and deaf to a are in Khabarovsk The protests of template warning that Putin’s post-election manage- and pre- ment might finally be running its those to his response course. Yet is who challenge this template unchanged: manipulation, vilifica- IMAGE

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 34 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 37 ANALYSIS recall the 2017 protests against the 2017 protests recall tax’.) the so-called ‘social parasite pandemic and The COVID-19 it (or lack to reaction Lukashenko’s The COVID-19 The COVID-19 pandemic and Lukashenko’s it (or lack to reaction thereof) an led to only disaffection increased among Belarusians with Lukashenko’s actions, statements, With and promises. the election fast the approaching, was faced with dictator of simply the reality offer having nothing to the increasingly to nation. disaffected decision not to recognise Crimea recognise decision not to officially as part of Russia, the the military host base, to refusal the country’s diversify to the order supplies, economy and energy im- to the (yet another) attempt the with the West, relations prove on change in the official narratives (or soft Be- Belarusian statehood larusization) – all of this provided claim that for observes to grounds increase Belarus is truly seeking to and independence its autonomy Russia. from affairs, with international In parallel undergoing were domestic trends with Rus- Quarrels a change, too. the country’s affected sia directly of subsidies, The era economy. supplies loans, and cheap energy a close. With the to was drawing worsening economic situation and the government no longer able by the social abide to adequately in the society discontent contract, so much so that the was growing, was facing mass protests regime - ever ex on a scale it had hardly (One might here perienced before. - elections. Tribu “Fair 16th , 2020 in Minsk. The banner reads on August against Lukashenko rally : Protest nal. Freedom to the political prisoners”. (© Homoatrox) the political prisoners”. to nal. Freedom IMAGE ways. In short, the behaviour of Russia and the way it is seen in Minsk have both changed. Rus- sent in Ukraine sian adventures a signal that Russia is going to by any means pursue its interests its if it’s necessary, no matter or a country Syria. like Slavic sister And it just so happened that the Minsk behaviour towards Kremlin’s the same time, at around shifted of 2015 order Vladimir Putin’s too. a military establish air seek to to base in Belarus, the decreasing economic support, his demands routes Belarusian trade redirect to Rus- the Baltics and to away from sian ports, nomination of Mikhail Belarus, Babich as ambassador to ultimatum and Dmitry Medvedev’s – all of on forming a union state tension a growing this indicated between two of the most closely post-Soviet countries. integrated In light of this unprecedented Alexander from the reaction threat, was also nothing like Lukashenko what we had seen in his previous The skirmishes with the Kremlin. - Lithuania was the first to to Lithuania was the first it doesn’t recognise declare as a legitimate Lukashenko and also the first president impose sanctions on a to the list of individuals from including Belarusian regime, himself. Lukashenko for room Lukashenko’s in his negotiations manoeuvre - narrow is gradually with Putin zero. ing down to – dip- the West Support from - lomatic, economic, organi – is now zational, and moral of life and death for a matter the nation of Belarus. Even important is the oppor more show that its actions tunity to can have a decisive impact in Belarus, thus demonstrating is not just the that Europe economy but largest world’s also a significant player in the with the arena international defend its values ability to and interests DR. LAURYNAS JONAVIČIUS is an Assistant professor, Researcher and Lecturer of International at the Institute Science, Relations and Political university (VU IIRPS). Vilnius and bachelor’s Has completed in programs degree master’s - political science and interna and diplomacy at tional relations VU IIRPS. Since 2005 studied studies at VU IIRPS; doctoral thesis in defended his doctoral as 2010. He worked February of the President an advisor to the Republic of Lithuania in the Has been policy group. foreign since at the Institute teaching 2005. IN SHORT • • • hardly any protests following the following any protests hardly 2015 election, that the Belarusian political pris- had released regime oners, that the EU had suspended sanctions against it, that the with Russia have tensions regime’s and that the US been growing, its first ambassa- had nominated in 12 years – why, Belarus dor to given all of that, is one left with a feeling of déjà vu following the 9 August 2020 election and all that happened afterwards? - its similarities with previ Despite ous elections, this election season important in several was different Russian adventures Russian adventures sent a in Ukraine signal that Russia pursue is going to by any its interests means necessary, its if it’s no matter or a Slavic sister country Syria. like , the situation it 1

https://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/24/opinion/24iht-edbildt24.html - represen describes is an accurate Both Belarus, too. tation of today’s the presidential then and now, its transparency, election lacked - and pro fraudulent, were results detained, and beaten, were testers - violently dispersed. The expecta will clearly tion that ‘a siege regime not survive a forever’ also remains not the reality. hope for the future, were Given the fact that there 1 If one had to guess what year If one had to on the situation the above quote even back to, in Belarus dates would a well-informed reader decide between be unable to likely 2006, 2010, and 2020. One could to one side, as set 2015 definitely election in Belarus the presidential quiet and at the time was relatively And although protest-free. largely is actually an excerpt the quote by four EU 2010 open letter a from ministers foreign DR. LAURYNAS JONAVIČIUS JONAVIČIUS DR. LAURYNAS Where will this end? of repressionThe forces might carry the day, but the wounds in society will not heal, and a siege regime will clearly not survive forever. WHAT WILL HISTORY BOOKS BOOKS HISTORY WILL WHAT AND ABOUT THE EU SAY IN LIGHT OF LUKASHENKO IN BELARUS? THE CRISIS

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 36 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 39 ANALYSIS self and for Belarus as a country. self and for Belarus as a country. person As far as Lukashenko’s is concerned, his entry in his- books as ‘the man who built tory seems far more Belarus’ today with ‘the man replaced be to likely This degree of of This degree involvement Vilnius’s is easily attributable ties its historical to with the Belarusian people, geographical and the proximity, prioritise wish to the democratisation of Belarus on the agenda. European ing in power by means of force, ing in power by means of force, is the self-same prism of force being used in Moscow’s presently calculations of the price of its And because in Belarus. interests - keep amount to those interests ing Belarus strictly within Russia’s influence geostrategic of sphere and doing so at a minimum cost, himself becomes a Lukashenko equation. dead weight in Kremlin’s his peo- control A leader unable to ple and demanding subsidies and exactly the best financial aid isn’t optimal strategy. fit for Moscow’s blame With only his own actions to for all channels for dialogue with being closed, Lukash- the West in his for manoeuvre room enko’s is gradually negotiations with Putin zero. down to narrowing These miscalculations on Lukash- a very part may add up to enko’s him- sad outcome for the dictator

2 - Belarus leader of the opposition Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has fled Belarus into neighbouring Lithuania has fled Belarus into Tikhanovskaya : Belarus leader of the opposition Svetlana (© DELFI / Domantas Pipas) IMAGE resigning. The are and officials may well president self-declared power for the hold on to be able to time being, shut in his ivory tower as he is. But governing the country - whose majority of population re longer is him any to listen fuses to no longer possible in principle. in the eyes of Seen as illegitimate his own people and most coun- the globe – and the tries across countries have majority of western - they do not rec by now declared re-election – ognise Lukashenko’s has no choice but to Lukashenko Russia the support on from rely and other authoritarian regimes. Legitimacy issues aside, however, issues aside, however, Legitimacy this also brings forth a situation like sover the issue of the country’s Russia has so far de- Yes, eignty. its support for Lukashenko. clared was doing But just as Lukashenko calculations for stay- his strategic on the Belarusian dictator’s field field dictator’s on the Belarusian his restricting of vision, severely as he sees manoeuvre ability to to both Russia respect fit. With His and the Belarusian people. by force of victories record track similar post-election protests after in the past had led Lukashenko would force that brute expect to too. carry time around, the day this sanctions of Western The threat and then against Belarus, imposed times since 2004, numerous lifted certainly carried little weight in calculations. Finally, Lukashenko’s the knowledge that the strongest i.e. Moscow, pillar of the regime, will do everything in its power to - another ‘colour revolu prevent tion’ allowed the leader calmly to rig yet another election and use against any voices of protest force citizens. among the country’s On the one hand, the dictator’s as expected. calculations worked the de still remains Lukashenko With of the country. leader facto the monopoly of violence still in needs his hands, Lukashenko the ignore be able to little else to protests hundred-thousand-strong with Moscow the and negotiate as a means cooperation of terms power. of clinging to On the other hand, this was a mis- part, calculation on Lukashenko’s The first one respects. in several concerns the Belarusian people. of thousands of them Hundreds the streets have been taking to and demanding a new election for And this isn’t over a month now. of just the usual opposition. People and demographics all age groups of thou- join in. These hundreds sands of Belarusians no longer as their legitimate see Lukashenko on strike Companies are leader. first-in-decades bilateral meeting meeting bilateral first-in-decades - expecta The rank). of such a high election tion that the presidential quiet and would be at least as 2015 was uneventful as that of certainlyThat was largely palpable. but wishful thinking, of course, signs show Belarus did admittedly optimism of this that could stoke kind, too. the 9 August 2020 election Yet it surrounded and the events that The dashed all such expectations. of all com- scrupulous removal the start of the to petition before the process; registration candidate on NGOs, opposi- crackdown of tion activities, and the freedom even deemed draconian press, the by Belarusian standards; liberal of a relatively replacement the government with people from – all of these ac- security forces the election tions months prior to in sharp dissonance with the were Then came the rhetoric. previous election day with an 80.1% victory - a blatantly rigged presiden from Last but not least, there tial vote. thousands of detained, were Belarusian and violated beaten, voice their daring to for citizens the government’s against protest There abuse of power. reckless who re- was now a president elects himself, holds an AK-47 the oath of rifle in his hands, takes and inauguration, office at a secret calls people ‘rats’. stay in to It appears that the urge power and decide himself as to leave office was how and when to in Lukashenko’s argument the key calculations. Reliance on strategic and security forces the country’s the to the methods they brought a limiting factor table was likely - elections 2020 – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2020_Belarusian_presi Belarus Presidential Reactions to Overview of International

dential_election_and_protests#Negative_reaction_to_the_election dential_election_and_protests#Negative_reaction_to_the_election 2 thereof) an increased only led to disaffection among Belarusians - actions, state with Lukashenko’s With the ments, and promises. the election fast approaching, was faced with the reality dictator to offer of simply having nothing to nation. disaffected the increasingly was now an expectation There that the changes in Russian poli- tics, the worsening economic situ- discontent ation, and the growing in the society will perhaps force make ‘last dictator’ to Europe’s some changes on the domestic - Notably, some practi scene, too. were – steps cal – albeit limited Decrees in this direction. taken No. 3 and No. 8 of 2017 eased on businesses and restrictions made it possible for the IT sector political Minsk released grow. to prisoners, the EU eased visa rules, by US and the country was visited (a Pompeo Mike of State Secretary Seen as illegitimate in in Seen as illegitimate own the eyes of his people and most countries across the the globe – and majority of western by countries have they now declared do not recognise re- Lukashenko’s election – Lukashenko has no choice but to on the support rely Russia and other from authoritarian regimes.

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 38 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 41 ANALYSIS The sceptic camp argues The sceptic camp argues that the concepts ‘Hybrid and ‘Hybrid threats’ warfare’ or vague, or just broad too are for an old new buzz words phenomena with an existing zone’, conceptualisation (‘grey activities, 4th sub-threshold warfare). generation While most of the scepti- the shaky cism addresses foundations of the concept, Hybrid methods have played in the policy an important role world. move It is also important to beyond reactive/responsive for countering strategies mainly that are Hybrid threats based on resilience-building. body of research A growing valuable insights on provides - stra develop a more how to deal with to approach tegic Hybrid activities. VYTAUTAS VYTAUTAS KERŠANSKAS is a Defence Group Policy Advisor at the Ministry of Na- tional Defence since of the Republic of Lithuania that to Prior 2020. September a national he spent two years as Helsinki-based Eu- at the expert for of Excellence Centre ropean (Hy- Threats Hybrid Countering he was leading brid CoE), where Before project. a Deterrence joining Hybrid CoE, Vytautas was working as a policy analyst at the Centre Studies Europe Eastern (2013–2018) and visiting lec- at the Technology turer University (2016–2018). He is a co-author of two monographies and policy foreign on Russia’s disinformation as well as several academic papers focusing on and security policy. foreign IN SHORT • • • - - generation warfare). And And warfare). generation th they do have a point. Many of the they do have a point. Many of the ideas that fall under the ‘Hybrid’ found in the writings concept are ern Ukraine by Russia was the ern Ukraine flashpoint which mainstreamed and ‘Hybrid warfare’ the terms London-based ‘Hybrid threats’. Mark Galeotti, with Dr. researcher his infamous article published in 2014 on the so-called ‘Gerasimov - a lot of atten received doctrine’, the conversa- tion and propelled seeing However, tion even further. Galeotti how it was misinterpreted, that a few years later explained an official to he was not referring - doctrine of the Russian Federa ‘doctrine’ tion but used the word for a catchy headline. Hoffman, that his in a similar spirit, argues concept is widely misinterpreted academic circles. in European So, the whole conversation sur has shaky Hybrid threats rounding foundations because of a common of the concept. (mis)interpretation The sceptic camp also argues that the concepts ‘Hybrid war too are ‘Hybrid threats’ and fare’ or vague, or just new buzz broad for an old phenomena words conceptualisation with an existing activi- sub-threshold zone’, (‘grey ties, 4 1 The ideas presented in this article are exclusively his own and should not be considered an official his own and should not be considered exclusively in this article are The ideas presented position of the Ministry of National Defence of the Republic of Lithuania or its departments.

1 A PUZZLING CONCEPT… in the The concept firstly emerged in the mid-2000s and literature Hoff- Frank Dr. from originates at the US National research man’s He defined Defense University. as the ability of the Hybrid warfare employ, in the battle- adversary to field, conventional weapons, asym- and other metric actions, terrorism, achieve political aims. means to of the illegal annexation However, in East- Crimea and aggression COUNTERING HYBRID COUNTERING SEARCH OF A IN THREATS: APPROACH MORE STRATEGIC KERŠANSKAS VYTAUTAS INTRODUCTION ‘Hybrid years, the term In recent has become commonly threats’ the contemporary explain used to and sub- security environment hostility Euro-Atlantic threshold as any nations face. However, concept, it trig- newly emergent between a huge dispute gered and opponents. While proponents the academic or analytic value of this concept is still contested, world implications real are there which show that the conversation did serve its on Hybrid threats of awareness purpose by raising security challenges and pressing invest more pushing countries to resiliency. their into world’s largest economy but also a economy but largest world’s significant player in the international defend its with the ability to arena If the West values and interests. find the will and the capacity fails to action, then any talk of the for real its to with respect credibility EU’s will soon become relations external of ridicule not only among a matter Belarusians but also in the eyes community at of the international understand Does Europe large. this? Is this what it wants? Lithuania‘s (orange) border with Belarus (green) is the country‘s with Belarus (green) border : Lithuania‘s (orange) enough if Europe were to have a to were enough if Europe in on the processes impact real its of expressing Belarus instead endless concern. Support from – diplomatic, economic, the West – is now and moral organizational, of life and death for the a matter im- more nation of Belarus. Even show portant is the opportunity to that its actions can have a decisive impact in Belarus, thus demon- is not just the that Europe strating longest border, almost 679 km in length (@ Wikimedia) longest border, IMAGE -

- With re Belarus’. who destroyed as a country, Belarus the spect to the middle beacon of stability in be facing a appears to of Europe of becoming – whether threat real of governorate officially or not – a only hope Russia. And almost the course that these events change Belarusian lies with those same want to people. The people who own countrylive their lives in their rules they ac- to and according and Moscow cept. Lukashenko less about them. couldn’t care at this The elephant in the room point is the issue of what the West do about it. Neighbour is going to and ing Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, lead their to have all tried Poland allies by inert western far more Lithuania was the first example. recognise it doesn’t declare to - presi as a legitimate Lukashenko to impose dent and also the first sanctions on a list of individuals includ- the Belarusian regime, from himself. Lithu- ing Lukashenko bending over anian diplomats are persuade other EU to backwards act swiftly and to member states of Vilnius’s This degree decisively. involvement is easily attributable to ties with the Belarusian its historical proximity, people, geographical prioritise the de- and the wish to of Belarus on the Eu- mocratisation look you agenda. However, ropean and sovereign at it, a democratic in- Belarus not only is in the moral of Lithuania but also reflects terest its national security concerns. had long become a place Vilnius for all Belarusians striving of refuge in their and democracy for freedom It is no coincidence own country. now Tsikhanouskaya that Sviatlana However, too. in Vilnius, resides alone is not the weight of Vilnius

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 40 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 43 ANALYSIS - rence project discusses the ap- project rence to strategy plication of deterrence It suggests Hybrid threats. counter is in this context that deterrence success or failure), not binary (total “should aim strategy so deterrence It is also important to move It is also important to beyond reactive/responsive Hybrid for countering strategies mainly based on that are threats A growing resilience-building. valuable provides body of research develop a more insights on how to deal with to approach strategic Hybrid activities. An ongoing Hybrid CoE Deter Countries should Countries should consider how they build a system that addresses in security matters a comprehensive A starting manner. do this point to should be the establishment of coordination. proper TOWARDS A MORE TOWARDS APPROACH STRATEGIC Geopolitical competition is not fading away anytime soon and a Hybrid campaigns will remain challenge. The hostile activities the Covid-19 that surrounded pandemic only confirm this con- clusion. This is well recognised community by the Euro-Atlantic in multiple ways. Countries are their national secu- reviewing include Hybrid to rity strategies or even adopting spe- threats them, to counter cific strategies structures their existing reviewing and putting a lot and procedures resil- their increasing of effort into iency in various domains. Countries should consider how that ad- they build a system in a security matters dresses A starting manner. comprehensive do this should be the point to - coordina establishment of proper boost information sharing, tion to situational awareness, increase planning and enable long-term assessment, and, ideally, serve both coordinate as a platform to and long- responses short-term policies. term One aspect of hybrid warfare is disinformation campaigns (@ Pixy): One aspect of hybrid warfare of-government response to to of-government response years, In recent security threats. some countries have developed and institutionalised whole-of- bodies, government coordination not only dedicated which are sharing, but also information to In some cases, policy response. the the conversation which led to of these bodies started creation informally and without a clear itself end-goal, but the process a collective understand- brought ing of the benefits of having such body. a coordination concept the Hybrid threats Thirdly, partners bring multilateral helps to contemporary discuss to together informa- share security threats, mitigate tion, develop policies to and, in particular such threats more responses cases, coordinate In most cases, Hybrid effectively. sup- designed to campaigns are policy goals of the port broader multiple and target malign actor it countries at once. Therefore, issue that becomes a multilateral and Hybrid coordination requires language at least partly threats this conversation in frame helps to way. structured a more IMAGE Recognising the Hybridity of different hostile influence across connect the dots, helps to sectors malign activi- how these grasp to form a single campaign ties link to and employed by a single actor, efficiently. more respond picture Understanding this broader coherent a more develop helps to a wide across culture strategic in governmental of actors range and even beyond, if such systems a conversation is established with partners, too. private Secondly, having a conversa- is a very tion on Hybrid threats a whole- develop way to practical Recognising the Recognising the Hybridity of hostile influence across sectors different connect the helps to how grasp dots, to these malign activities form a single link to campaign employed by a single actor, more and respond efficiently. By using Hybrid By using Hybrid methods, a hostile disrupt tries to actor to ability the target’s by effectively respond eliciting a traditional remaining response, and unattributed unpunished. - the actor which employs them. the actor Some campaigns might involve but may also be employed force, in civilian domains. By using purely Hybrid methods, a hostile actor ability disrupt the target’s tries to by eliciting effectively respond to remaining response, a traditional and unpunished. unattributed …YET, HELPFUL IN MANY WAYS HELPFUL IN MANY …YET, While most of the scepticism ad- the shaky foundations of dresses the concept, Hybrid methods have in the played an important role three policy world. I would stress benefits the conversation on key and has brought Hybrid threats offer. continues to under promote Firstly, it helps to of standing of the materialisation challenges security contemporary non- to security traditional from govern- security players across agencies Sectoral ment structures. that do not deal with security on a daily basis learn how matters being weaponised are their sectors as well as the by malign actors, Hybrid use of such means. A Russia-backed rebel armoured fighting vehicles convoy near armoured rebel : A Russia-backed

Donetsk, Eastern Ukraine, May, 2015. Russia’s aggression in Ukraine en- in Ukraine aggression May, 2015. Russia’s Ukraine, Donetsk, Eastern (© Mstyslav Chernov) discussions about various hybrid threats couraged IMAGE Clausewitz and other of Sun Tzu, military Many case stud- thinkers. ies of such non-linear competition contemporary ancient to from widely discussed in are history the literature. As the Covid-19 pandemic broke sceptics and both proponents out, used certain hostile activities (be it the Russian disinformation cam- paign or Chinese ‘Wolf-Warrior’ that prove to diplomacy in Europe) the do (not) explain Hybrid threats - Propo actions of these actors. that these were nents suggested ‘classic Hybrid’ campaigns, while this was ‘clas- opponents argued – an opportunistic sic statecraft’ an advantage gain to attempt against a rival during a crisis. This between the two factions debate continue. will likely the conceptual debate Leaving aside, it is worth describing what – are. – Hybrid threats in general the coordinated to refers The term and use of overt and covert tools domains different activities across achieve a specific objec- to political) of tactical to tive (from

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 42 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 45 CONFERENCE OVERVIEW Historical trauma experienced experienced trauma Historical by individuals and societies - and its impact on interna was the main tional relations “Deal- a Conference of topic of an ing with the Trauma held in the Past”, Undigested of Dukes of the Grand Palace 2020. Lithuania in March brought The Conference - politicians, histo together rians, artists, and mental from health professionals America, Asia and Europe and was the first event of the kind in Lithuania. was paid Much attention on of trauma the impact to and relations international means of dealing with it. adopted The Declaration participants by Conference emphasised that historical influence how so- traumas cieties view themselves and what their domestic and policies are. international was initiated The Conference by Ambassador Laimonas and organised Talat-Kelpša Af- by the Ministry of Foreign - fairs of Lithuania, in collabora Sakharov tion with the Andrei Ambassador Laimonas Talat-Kelpša (© Ministry of Foreign Affairs (© Ministry of Foreign : Ambassador Laimonas Talat-Kelpša Roughly 200,000 Jews were killed by the Nazis and their local collabo- Roughly 200,000 Jews were rators; by the Soviets; prison and tortured into thrown 156,000 other citizens Dealing with the Trauma of an Undigested Past. International Conference Overview. ISSUU, Vilnius, Vilnius, ISSUU, Overview. Conference International Past. of an Undigested Dealing with the Trauma 5-6, 2020 March of Lithuania) IMAGE OPENING REMARKS BY LAIMONAS TALAT-KELPŠA, THE INITIATOR THE INITIATOR OPENING REMARKS BY LAIMONAS TALAT-KELPŠA, THE TIME OF THE EVENT, AND ORGANIZER OF THE CONFERENCE. AT OF OF THE LITHUANIAN MINISTRY SECRETARY THE STATE HE WAS AMBASSADOR LITHUANIA’S HE IS CURRENTLY FOREIGN AFFAIRS. TO THE CZECH REPUBLIC the In addition to brutal for Lithuania. The twentieth century was extremely of traumatic a wide array which by itself involves war, of horrors traditional of bru- a routine to the population of Lithuania was exposed experiences, period. Thus, in just one decade for a prolonged tal violence, which lasted 1950: to 1940 from • •

1 OVERVIEW OF THE INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL OF THE OVERVIEW WITH THE DEALING CONFERENCE: PAST OF UNDIGESTED TRAUMAS MARCH 5-6 2020 VILNIUS, LITHUANIA, need to leverage new technology technology new leverage need to (which enables less political and attribution) and build technical more sector partnerships with the private engage because (which is willing to place the Hybrid activities that take in the domains in which companies Attribution too). harm them operate deci- increase is also important to show resolve sion transparency, own population one’s and reassure in crisis situations. Even though though Even the theoretical continues, debate on conversations among Hybrid threats providing are experts body of a growing on the research of ways and means mitigating, deterring and eliminating these threats. CONCLUSION debate though the theoretical Even continues, conversations on Hybrid - provid are among experts threats on body of research ing a growing the ways and means of mitigating, and eliminating these deterring In the policy world, the con- threats. as a tool cept deserves recognition for bringing security policy officials and internationally, closer together of those actors awareness raising security policy outside of traditional the at the national level. As argued, phenomena is not going away, so Hy- to consolidating the response man- strategic in a more brid threats is today – ner – an ongoing process deal with important and needed to effectively. more these threats

nd order effects). order rd The importance of attribution is emphasised by all of these works as one of the and is understood to of the strategies cornerstones Hybrid Hybrid threats. counter usually built on campaigns are which con- ‘plausible deniability’, - the Euro-At by responses strains is a huge There lantic community. domain deterrence focuses on the focuses on the domain deterrence military domain – when it comes analysis should more Hybrid, to how this logic into be conducted other domains. into translates the Atlantic from Speranza Lauren provided Council also recently this a valuable contribution to conversation by emphasising the with boost cooperation need to and develop sector the private the measure methodologies to negative impact of Hybrid cam- paigns (including less obvious 2 and 3 European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats was Hybrid Threats for Countering of Excellence Centre : European

established in 2017 by the first nine Participating States, NATO and the EU NATO ParticipatingStates, established in 2017 by the first nine in a joint meeting in Helsinki (© Hybrid CoE) at fully dissuading hostile actors high-level Hybrid activities, from mit- while simultaneously aiming to hostile activities by low-level igate A denying their negative effects”. efforts blend of resilience-building policies that deny and proactive to) impose the benefits or (threat should be costs on hostile actors developed by countries. Sweijs and Samo Zilincik from Tim for Strategic the Hague Centre pub- (HCSS) recently Studies analysis of lished a thorough and deterrence cross-domain to its application with respect They suggest the Hybrid threats. menu of build a pre-set need to options, stress possible response the importance of communication and the need to synchronisation, - of proportion develop standards that The authors recognise ality. on cross- most of the literature IMAGE

ANALYSIS Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 44 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 47 CONFERENCE OVERVIEW - mon consequence of trauma in of trauma mon consequence But not all experiences general. They people have been negative. as a PTSD can also be mixed. emerged psychiatric phenomenon the Vietnam in particular after not a well-known but was War, World concept at all following I. Although war has always War with negative left people scarred - was no acknowl memories, there called edgment of a phenomenon or the painful experiences PTSD to According of those affected. of US statistics, over 40 percent been diag- have war veterans nosed with PTSD. is collective trauma Overcoming the and stopping hard, extremely end the suf- war is not enough to the Sri when example, fering. For ended in 2009, Lankan Civil War abuse and alcohol suicide rates conse- as a direct skyrocketed on inflicted quence of the trauma And this is not Sri Lankan society. only true of Sri Lanka. It happens the world. The sad truth around not are is that people in general by the suffering of oth- bothered does ers. As long as the problem them personally, people not touch help. to reluctant rather are overcoming When it comes to trauma, collective and historical apology acts of remembrance, - not enough. Politi are and respect respective prepare cians have to the overcome public opinions to past, something that is difficult achieve outright. The differ to and memories of ent narratives maintained by the past that are diverse communities a country’s studied be consolidated, need to when seeking to and internalized beyond the scars move forward of the past. Such scars perhaps but at can never be fully remedied, least their impact can be lessened Making this process. through as a result of political intimidation. as a result The notion of “transgenerational haunting” becomes very important of past how the “ghosts” here: – “that which appears to traumas in fact a “seeth- – are be not here” When it comes to ing presence.” this cannot be healed but trauma, is no because there only treated, completely. trauma erase way to of conflict, most conflicts, In terms - pre are of their nature, regardless dominantly psychological. Given of is a high prevalence this, there - mental health prob conflict-related instance, in Northern lems. For 40% of the population Ireland, a conflict-related has experienced event (for example, traumatic bombings, shootings and mutila- tions), and 17% have witnessed a Northern death or serious injury. one of the has in general Ireland in anywhere of PTSD highest rates here rates the world. Prescription amongst are for anti-depressants the highest in the world and male suicide also has one of the highest Europe. in Western rates itself is an interesting PTSD of discussion. It is widely topic as the most com- accepted - Participants of the Conference (© Ministry of Foreign Affairs of (© Ministry of Foreign of the Conference : Participants of a brother or sister killed during or sister of a brother periods, suffer troubled more violence and vari- domestic from ous forms of physical and sexual relocate to forced abuse, or are Lithuania) IMAGE evi- is growing There dence of transgener the ational trauma – - unconscious trans of emotional, ference physical or social pain one person to from their descendants. - This can be trans - via the crea ferred tion of a so-called “post memory”; sec- ond-hand memories by parents recounted but also or guardians, unexplained through - silences and expres sions of grief, rage and despair. - - or guard by parents recounted unexplained ians, but also through of grief, silences and expressions Empirical stud- and despair. rage ies have shown that such trauma be passed onto to likely is more offspring if one or both of the dead or imprisoned, or are parents up with a parent(s) grow if children live in the shadow who has PTSD, mediate but also with long-lasting repercussions. with long-lasting repercussions. but also mediate the subsequent is passed on to trauma Untreated requires dealing with trauma Therefore, generations. effort. and committed a delicate in a traumas put our collective we have to Third, under It is important to context. international larger singular. unique but hardly stand that our pain is Sri from other countries and nations, are There recent history in who have suffered Ireland, Lanka to their with terms to come to and who still struggle their experience? we learn from past. Can traumatic the meth- Finally and most importantly, what are collective traumas? ods and means of overcoming of we lean on the academic accomplishments Can Can Or maybe art? Or literature? psychotherapy? a certain blueprint, we develop a universal toolbox, still in the for those nations and societies who are Our big neigh- denial stage of their multiple trauma? but probably example, bor comes as an immediate many more. are there <...> II, the War the World I think that for many years after which was of the Holocaust and the history, trauma crimes, the Stalinist II and War the World around gen- kind of vaccinations for the next some created and led This vaccination was responsible erations. Union. The answer of the European the creation to fears and those disap- those traumas, those to pointments of humanity with itself. This vaccination now it is for many years, unfortunately, has worked it is not working anymore. evaporating, work still able to the question is, if we are Therefore, - work it in an honest and coura our memory, to our the history make we able to Are geous way. - is possible if we find coura And this ‘cure’ ‘cure’? ‘doctors’, brave geous, objective and intellectually of the memory. surgeons’ the ‘real HISTORIC TRAUMA AND PTSD AROUND THE WORLD evidence of is growing There – the trauma transgenerational of unconscious transference emotional, physical or social pain their descen- person to one from via dants. This can be transferred of a so-called “post the creation memory”; second-hand memories , 1 20,000 perished as freedom fighters in the anti- fighters freedom 20,000 perished as until 1953; which lasted Soviet resistance population Roughly 150,000 Polish-speaking Poland to region the Vilnius from ‘transferred’ the war; after formerly Nazi-occu- the from 64,000 people fled the city of Klaipėda leaving pied Klaipėda region, when the Soviet army with only 28 civilians the city in 1945; entered fled the country in 1944-45, 56,000 or more of Soviets and repressions. the return expecting No less than 130,000, mostly women and chil- 130,000, mostly No less than Siberia; to deported dren, • • • • 800,000 people, to approximately off This rounds the surface of Lithuania in who have vanished from number of the total just one decade. The estimate Lithuanian population in 1940 was 2.8 million. A substantial 800,000 is a staggering number. especially has been produced, volume of research and analyzing the in the last 30 years, registering have beensufferings of these victims, most of whom It is right that we seek truth about what lost forever. com- these people, because it helps to happened to tragedy. the full scope of our shared prehend <...> the issue examine to is an attempt This conference perspective. It has professional a broader from as fields as different from experts together brought and cinema, literature, diplomacy, psychotherapy, many others. The aim is four-fold: - understand and acknowl First, we need your help to This does not always come easy. edge our trauma. heal must diagnose and one who wants to However, for starters. acknowledge his or her problem works on a how trauma Second, we must realize not only im- collective psyche. The effects are •

while LFPR presents a brief sum- while LFPR presents mary of the main issues discussed during the event. Research Centre for Democratic for Democratic Centre Research Development of Vytautas Magnus - of Psychol University, the Institute University, and other ogy of Vilnius partners. The full volume of the Conference is available online proceedings

CONFERENCE OVERVIEW CONFERENCE Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 46 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 49 CONFERENCE OVERVIEW In general, the process of adjust- the process In general, is more system totalitarian a ing to harmful than facing its repressions firsthand, as the victims of the the to perceive fail first case often damage. In a way, Lithuanians are traumas its historical still exiting which a mourning process through various manifests itself through public rituals and symbolic acts, the remains such as repatriating installing citizens, of its deported fighters, its freedom monuments to - the orga through or since recently, nization of the Holocaust Memorial the one in Molėtai. like March Importantly, memory politics has - rela become part of international accuses tions. Thus, Russia often its neighbors of being ‘fascist And even if coming to states.’ during the with their role terms Holocaust is still painful in many and Eastern nations of Central such use of history Europe, purpose than serves a different true reconciliation. goal real The Russian leadership’s an ideology which create is to Nikolai Svanidze, Historian and Journalist from Russia, and Yves Russia, and Yves and Journalist from Historian Svanidze, : Nikolai faced two major cultural traumas. traumas. faced two major cultural in 1940 The first of these started with the first Soviet occupation and was followed by the Nazi of the occupation and the horrors - be further rein Holocaust, to of the Sovi- by the return forced The repressions. ets and Stalinist happened in the second trauma early 1990s, when the socialist Those traumas collapsed. system the with correlated directly are in Lithuania, high suicide rate skyrocketed which immediately in the 1940s and then again at the beginning of the 1990s. With the transgenerational to respect traumas, of cultural transmission of the offspring paradoxically, the families that experienced have proven political repressions and in the long run less affected than the psychologically sturdier descendants of the families who One might repressed. not were - of repres guess that the trauma openly discussed sions was more in those families which had lost everything than those already lose. which still had what to Doutriaux, Member of the Conseil d'État, Former Ambassador of France Ambassador of France Former Doutriaux, Member of the Conseil d'État, Affairs of Lithuania) (© Ministry the OSCE of Foreign to IMAGE - tory and the related crimes against and the related tory committed humanity that were against the African people. TRAUMA AND MEMORY POLITICS: TRAUMA AND MEMORY LITHUANIA AND RUSSIA can trauma Coping with cultural be constructive and successful, In or it can be just the opposite. two cope with trauma, to order conditions must be met: the event that caused it must be over be itself needs to and the trauma acknowledged. Lithuanians have The process of ad- The process totalitar a justing to is more ian system facing harmful than first- its repressions victims hand, as the often of the first case the perceive fail to way, damage. In a still Lithuanians are its historical exiting a through traumas mourning process which manifests itself various public through rituals and symbolic - acts, such as repat of riating the remains citizens, its deported installing monuments fight- its freedom to ers, or since recently, - the organiza through tion of the Holocaust like Memorial March the one in Molėtai. historical trauma. They are the are They trauma. historical most visible embodiments of those memories and help society through its traumas overcome to None- symbolic confrontation. the theless, those symbols are and debates subject of fierce - various pro including protests, against States the United in tests monuments. Confederate the same vein, there In exactly taking place in debate is a fierce named streets renaming on France individuals who actively after and the colonialism to contributed It would be worthwhile slave trade. to approach France’s compare to that of the United these issues to memorial laws Various States. in have been passed in France condemn brutal events in to order the past. These include the 2001 memorial law condemning the Armenian Genocide, the 2001 me- morial law condemning the slave and the 2005 memorial law trade, colonial his- condemning French The January Events took place in Lithuania between 11 and 13 took : The January Events January 1991 in the aftermath of the Act of the Re-Establishment of the of the Act of the January 1991 in the aftermath of Soviet military civilians were actions, 14 As a result of Lithuania. State (@ Ministry of Defence of Lithuania) than 700 injured killed and more challenge to Mahatma Gandhi’s - colonialism and perhaps his great of that est achievement in terms Indians challenge was in liberating is a powerful tool Fear fear. from which can be used as a political in creating weapon (for example between Hindus and Mus- hatred lims), but how can these different in an live together ethnic groups of artificially-created atmosphere a dual commit- fear? This requires constitution the country’s ment to concept of India as and a united fear led from Liberation a country. political independence to directly Kingdom in 1947. United the from This political emancipation was only possible once the country - Deep chal of fear. had been freed or be overcome to lenges remain in their impact, but at least limited have been taken. the initial steps IMAGE LINGERING SYMBOLS OF A TROUBLED PAST and monuments play a Statues in coping with substantial role -

progress on this is a strong means on this is a strong progress the unity of a country of reinforcing that engages in this way. commemoration Furthermore, should no longer be tied only to the past, but should also look to have an educational focus and an emphasis not only on remember but one ing what has occurred which also focuses on what the memory in question means and It is im- implies about the future. that commemo- ensure portant to to engage with efforts look ration the events of youths and can keep them. to the past relevant India While vast challenges remain, has been a showcase of certain positive shifts following a traumatic - colonial past. Indians have a tre mendous and long-lasting trauma colo- to directly that can be traced nialism and these colonial traumas bleed in one way or continue to The case of the United another. is of India exploitation Kingdom’s given how the Indian illustrative, of its economy was ruined in terms of manufacturing. In global share a 24 the 1750s, India had around and Britain only two per cent share per cent. By 1947, this situation had reversed. Statues and mon- Statues a sub- uments play in coping stantial role trauma. with historical the most They are visible embodiments of those memories to and help society its traumas overcome symbolic through confrontation.

CONFERENCE OVERVIEW CONFERENCE Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 48 Review Policy Foreign Lithuanian would help it cement its domi- The contemporary challenges offer nance at home and abroad. Thus, a particularly fertile ground for em- they develop a narrative where Importantly, memory ploying historical memory for the NOTES some facts are invented while other purpose of manipulation. Previous- facts are simply and conveniently politics has become ly, with a slower pace of informa- forgotten. A war hero celebrated by part of international tion exchange, it would have been the opponents is declared ‘a war relations. Thus, Rus- possible to refer to reliable sources criminal’ while true perpetrators are through historical literature drafted absolved of their sins or protected sia often accuses its by professional historians. Now, in from criminal prosecution. The neighbors of being the era of social media dominance, revival of the Stalin cult is a case in ‘fascist states.’ And historical myths and narratives point, despite the fact that millions have gained the capacity to take of Russian citizens have suffered even if coming to on a life of their own, often entering from Stalinist repressions in the terms with their role the public domain without pre- most brutal way. The Russian during the Holocaust filtering through informed literature people will only come to realize and expertise. Historical narratives who exactly Stalin was and what is still painful in many can now, much more easily than he actually did to their nation if nations of Central ever before, be employed to back they take a more thorough look at and Eastern Europe, extreme positions and polarize his actions and legacy. But many ongoing dialogue. This is especially Russians simply do not believe the such use of history worrisome given that a society stories of those who have survived serves a different needs time to digest its historical through the Stalinist horrors. Under purpose than true trauma, which is hardly possible this ‘conspiracy of silence’ bringing under the break-neck pace of the the unsavory truth of the Stalinist reconciliation. online world. regime to light is especially difficult. CONFERENCE OVERVIEW

IMAGE: Orpheus I (bronze, 2008) by Austrian sculptor Alfred Hrdlicka near the Monument against War and Fascism in Vienna, . It is an androgynous figure, showing an enraptured face, curling hair, arms raised in a sensuous Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 50 Policy Lithuanian Foreign way, revealing a great Yes to life (© Manfred Werner / Tsui) Publisher Partners