CLIMATE RESEARCH AND SERVICES METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES PUNE

Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes over State

Met Monograph No.: ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/15(2020)/39

Pulak Guhathakurta, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, S T Sable, Sunita Bhandari, Archana Shinde, Anupam Kashyapi

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Met Monograph No.: ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/15(2020)/39

Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes Over Madhya Pradesh State

Pulak Guhathakurta, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, S.T. Sable, Sunita Bhandari, Archana Shinde and Anupam Kashyapi

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT PUNE - 411005

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DOCUMENT AND DATA CONTROL SHEET 1 Document Title Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes Over Madhya Pradesh State 2 Issue No. ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/15(2020)/39 3 Issue Date January 2020 4 Security Unclassified Classification 5 Control Status Uncontrolled 6 Document Type Scientific Publication 7 No. of Pages 31 8 No. of Figures 42 9 No. of References 3 10 Distribution Unrestricted 11 Language English 12 Authors Pulak Guhathakurta, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, S.T. Sable, Sunita Bhandari, Archana Shinde and Anupam Kashyapi 13 Originating Climate Research Division/ Climate Application & User Division/ Group Interface Group/ Hydrometeorology 14 Reviewing and Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Approving Department, New Authority 15 End users Central and State Ministries of Water resources, agriculture and civic bodies, Science and Technology, Disaster Management Agencies, Planning Commission of India 16 Abstract India is in the tropical monsoon zone and receives plenty of rainfall as most of the annual rainfall during the monsoon season every year. However, the rainfall is having high temporal and spatial variability and due to the impact of climate changes there are significant changes in the mean rainfall pattern and their variability as well as in the intensity and frequencies of extreme rainfall events. The report brings the result of the analysis based on the recent 30 years of data (1989-2018) on the mean spatial rainfall pattern as well as mean spatial pattern of different rainfall events, trends and variability as well as extreme rainfall events during the monsoon months and annual for the state. 17 Key Words Rainfall trend, variability, extreme events, dry days

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1. Introduction

The State of Madhya Pradesh is a state of and lies within 21.6°N to 26.30o N latitude 74.15o to 82.8o E longitude. The state shares border with the others states of in the northeastern side, in the northwestern side, in western side, Chhattisgarh in southeastern side, in southern side. The terrain consists of extensive plateau regions of more than 500 m.a.s.l. in the central parts with elevation just exceeding 1 Km. at a few places only and broken hills to the south. Meteorological purposes the State has two sub-divisions, namely, East Madhya Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh. Geographical location and orographic features have profound influence on the climate of the State, which is practically free from maritime influence.

The year may be divided into four seasons. The winter season from January to February is followed by the summer season from March to May. The period June to September constitutes the southwest monsoon season and the period from October to December forms the post monsoon season.

The period from November to March is generally pleasant over entire state except during a few spells when severe cold waves associated with western disturbances affect northern parts of the State in winter months. The months of April and May are hot, very dry and generally uncomfortable. Due to lower temperatures, the plateau regions are however comparatively less uncomfortable in summer. Weather tends to be oppressive during June due to high humidity and temperature. The next three months (July, August and September) are fairly comfortable due temperatures, although the humidity continues to be very high.

Many studies are available on the observed trends and variability of rainfall and also extreme rainfall events, but all the studies are based on past 100 years or more data and also the recent years are not included (Guhathakurta et al, 2015; Guhathakurta et al, 2011; Guhathakurta & Rajeevan, 2008 etc). In the present report all the analysis of observed rainfall patterns, trends and variability have been done based on recent past 30 years (1989-2018) that will help to have idea of the recent changes for climate change adaptation and management by the state authorities.

2. Data and Methodology

Daily Rainfall data from 1989 to 2018 is considered for analysis of trend variability and mean rainfall patterns. From the daily rainfall data monthly rainfall series of each stations are computed and then monthly district rainfall series has been constructed by considering arithmetic average of all the station rainfall values within the district. The monthly rainfall series of the state has been computed by using area weighted rainfall values of all the districts within the state. The objective of the analysis is to: 3

1. Identify the spatial pattern of the mean rainfall

2. Understand district wise observed rainfall trend and variability in annual and SW monsoon season (June, July, august and September).

Daily station rainfall data is utilized for identification of the mean spatial patterns and rainfall intensity trends. From mean and standard deviation (SD), the coefficient of variation (CV) is calculated as follows:

Standard Deviation Coeffcient of variation (CV) = × 100 Mean

The analysis has been done in two parts. For identification of the spatial pattern mean rainfall and variability and also observed trends we have used district rainfall series and results have been brought out for four southwest monsoon months viz. June, July, August, September, for the southwest monsoon season and also for annual. Fig.1 gives the location of the districts of the state. For identification of mean pattern and also trends of intensities of various rainfall events we used the station daily rainfall data.

Fig. 1 Location of the districts of Madhya Pradesh

3. State rainfall mean and variability and trend Table 1 shows the mean rainfall (mm) and coefficient of variation of the state for the monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual during the period 1989-2018. It can be seen that the state gets highest rainfall (35%) of south west monsoon rainfall in July month while the August month get 33% of the south west monsoon rainfall. June and September receive 14% and 18% of south west monsoon rainfall. Also more

4 than 92% of annual rainfall receives during the southwest monsoon season only. The variability of monsoon or annual rainfall is also very less (18%).

June July August September JJAS Annual Mean 127.4 323.6 304.3 166.2 921.4 997.8 CV 53.6 26.6 28.0 53.8 18.0 17.6

Table 1 Mean rainfall (mm) and coefficient of variation of the state for the monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual

Fig. 2 and 3 show the time series of rainfall in mm for the months of June, July, August, September and southwest monsoon season, annual respectively. The trend lines are also displayed for each of the series. Neither monthly rainfall nor seasonal or annual rainfall show any significant increasing/decreasing trend. In the monthly rainfall July rainfall show increasing trend while August and September rainfall show decreasing trend. Both seasonal and annual rainfall show decreasing trend. During the last 30 years highest rainfall of July and August received in the year 2016 and 1994 (484.7mm and 443.2 mm) respectively while highest rainfall of 412.5mm in September received in the year 1999 and of 273.4mm in June received in the year 2011. Highest annual rainfall of 1399.5 mm received in the year 2013 and highest southwest monsoon rainfall of 1291.0 mm received in the year 1994.

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Fig. 2 Time series of rainfall in mm for the months of June, July, August, September and trends

Fig. 3 Time series of rainfall in mm for the southwest monsoon season and annual trends

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4. District rainfall mean, variability and trend 4.1 Mean and coefficient of variation

Table 2 gives the rainfall statistics for the districts of Maharashtra for the four monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual while Fig. 4-5 show the spatial pattern of these statistics. It can be seen that the districts viz. Dindori, Balaghat, Seoni, , , Sagar, ,, and receive highest rainfall over other districts during all the months and season. Rainfall receives over these districts are around 150-200 mm in June, 370-422 mm in July, 340-400mm in August, 180-210 mm in September and during the SW monsoon and annual 1035-1301mm. Lowest rainfall receives during the SW monsoon season over district (621.2mm) while district receives lowest annual rainfall (692.5mm).

JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER MONSOON ANNUAL DISTRICT MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV BALAGHAT 173.7 59.1 398.6 42.7 364.4 32.2 194.0 64.2 1130.6 28.9 1258.3 34.4 107.1 56.6 216.0 40.6 200.7 62.1 149.3 48.3 673.0 33.5 717.6 39.1 BETUL 147.3 57.4 363.4 45.6 321.0 48.5 192.0 76.6 1023.7 30.4 1121.2 32.5 BHIND 66.4 94.2 220.4 54.2 203.3 48.5 133.2 75.1 623.3 43.8 694.5 49.3 129.9 65.6 334.8 36.3 303.5 53.5 147.7 74.5 915.8 26.7 1008.1 30.8 122.8 90.7 289.0 36.5 321.9 43.7 188.9 86.3 922.6 30.2 1004.5 27.1 CHINDWARA 155.4 44.0 336.4 42.0 280.7 38.4 184.8 73.3 957.3 24.5 1079.0 34.6 DAMOH 145.6 98.2 354.4 50.3 344.2 45.1 170.7 81.8 1014.9 35.1 1094.1 37.6 DATIA 83.4 90.8 246.7 46.8 246.2 47.8 149.7 96.0 726.0 34.6 799.4 37.4 126.1 62.6 320.5 41.7 281.6 48.4 161.9 62.5 890.1 36.0 937.7 41.3 115.5 55.3 266.5 44.5 221.6 53.9 164.1 50.0 767.7 35.6 807.5 37.1 DINDORI 201.1 70.6 386.3 39.2 384.3 36.0 196.8 75.7 1168.5 45.7 1291.0 48.5 GUNA 124.7 101.9 348.3 44.2 314.3 41.1 132.9 73.5 920.3 27.6 982.9 32.4 78.2 76.5 224.6 47.7 254.7 35.5 131.6 86.9 689.1 23.7 762.0 27.7 124.1 73.4 396.4 57.3 316.6 50.4 164.6 70.3 1001.7 41.7 1066.1 50.6 HOSHANGABAD 146.7 67.1 422.2 42.4 389.0 43.0 191.8 66.3 1149.6 30.3 1235.0 33.3 129.4 57.8 308.2 44.6 270.6 67.4 160.8 54.1 868.9 29.0 945.6 32.4 JABALPUR 151.6 79.6 386.9 39.9 398.3 38.3 197.5 79.2 1134.4 28.1 1230.8 31.4 123.1 63.3 316.3 43.6 295.6 66.5 169.3 60.6 904.3 40.8 948.9 49.6 125.6 90.2 358.0 58.1 361.0 52.8 185.4 80.3 1030.0 50.0 1095.9 50.0 110.4 69.7 263.0 45.0 212.8 44.0 160.4 70.0 746.6 29.1 806.8 31.3 126.7 48.4 243.3 40.0 209.0 45.9 156.7 58.4 735.7 21.8 788.3 26.5 MANDLA 158.5 60.9 414.3 38.0 392.0 32.8 192.9 72.0 1157.7 31.0 1270.7 38.1 102.2 66.1 312.4 41.0 275.7 60.1 129.1 62.4 819.5 35.2 862.3 40.7 67.2 72.5 217.8 50.2 229.7 49.1 116.0 70.8 630.7 36.7 690.7 37.1

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NARSINGHPUR 141.5 76.9 365.7 44.7 328.3 44.4 172.5 97.6 1008.0 28.3 1088.4 33.2 89.6 72.2 268.4 49.4 320.1 55.6 117.7 58.3 795.9 38.9 828.5 40.6 PANNA 124.8 84.4 348.1 44.2 353.3 39.2 204.9 90.0 1031.1 32.3 1115.3 29.9 RAISEN 158.5 66.6 393.3 35.1 348.9 34.8 180.1 86.7 1080.8 23.5 1160.9 34.8 RAJGARH 113.1 73.7 332.9 47.4 311.8 48.9 124.3 70.4 882.1 34.7 941.6 37.6 104.5 57.4 331.1 50.8 332.5 59.5 150.4 57.5 918.4 37.4 957.8 42.0 114.6 75.9 307.6 42.6 298.6 44.0 197.0 73.1 917.7 31.0 1004.6 37.5 SAGAR 155.8 85.5 377.6 50.8 340.2 36.9 161.1 85.0 1034.8 29.1 1117.7 33.3 SATNA 113.9 79.8 309.6 54.1 299.7 45.0 183.9 79.3 907.1 28.5 983.3 32.0 134.1 64.3 365.8 38.9 325.3 50.2 163.5 67.0 988.7 35.9 1061.8 43.4 SEONI 164.9 48.7 371.1 34.0 287.7 42.0 172.6 64.9 996.4 21.7 1117.5 32.8 132.8 74.4 307.1 41.4 341.9 44.8 196.3 71.0 978.0 34.3 1064.3 42.8 SHAJAPUR 113.6 63.9 330.0 43.5 296.7 57.7 144.1 72.9 884.4 35.9 941.8 41.4 SHEOPUR 74.1 98.8 235.2 52.0 237.6 51.9 94.9 82.0 641.8 34.5 681.9 40.9 SHIVPURI 93.9 94.8 281.9 45.3 267.0 37.2 130.5 88.4 773.4 36.5 827.7 39.5 113.1 78.6 319.8 40.2 309.1 40.8 191.3 73.7 933.2 30.6 1012.7 33.9 TIKAMGARH 92.1 123.5 277.0 41.7 289.8 42.5 157.8 112.0 816.8 35.3 880.4 37.1 115.8 55.0 335.4 46.4 281.1 55.8 149.1 63.5 881.4 30.0 945.0 36.3 UMARIA 128.2 76.7 297.1 31.8 330.8 40.0 191.0 55.1 947.1 24.7 1053.3 36.7 VIDISHA 154.9 72.0 388.6 39.7 345.1 40.6 165.0 81.7 1053.6 33.5 1140.2 37.6 143.6 71.1 306.0 41.8 307.0 43.2 187.2 56.1 943.8 45.3 1048.8 52.5 123.4 67.4 239.9 50.7 268.5 50.6 163.7 59.8 795.5 29.5 888.9 36.2 ASHOKNAGAR 114.7 112.9 324.0 44.8 280.7 36.7 150.0 84.4 869.5 38.5 931.5 40.9 115.7 70.1 295.7 52.7 264.0 63.8 164.6 63.2 840.1 42.7 886.8 52.4 122.1 69.5 308.3 40.6 326.4 48.5 209.2 66.2 966.0 44.1 1046.6 49.3 AGAR 103.8 65.4 328.4 44.2 295.5 57.6 142.2 64.6 869.9 40.6 920.9 45.7

Table 2. Rainfall statistics for the districts of Madhya Pradesh for the four monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual

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Fig. 4 Mean rainfall pattern over districts of Madhya Pradesh

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Fig.5 Coefficient of Variation (%) over districts of Madhya Pradesh

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4.2 Trend in district rainfall

Fig.6 shows the trends in district rainfall for (a) June, (b) July (c) August (d) September (e) JJAS and (f) annual. It can be seen that August and September rainfall has shown significant decreasing trend in the district Sagar, Damoh and Balaghat while no district has shown any significant increasing trend. For the June month only significant trend has been noticed in Rajgarh, Khandwa, (significant increasing trend). Rajgarh, Khargone and Hoshangabad district of West Madhya Pradesh have shown significant increasing trend while in East Madhya Pradesh, Sagar, Damoh, Balaghat districts in August and Morena, Bhind, Gwalior and Panna districts in September have shown significant decreasing trend. During the whole southwest monsoon season only one district viz. Khandwa has shown significant increasing trend. For the annual rainfall two districts viz. Balaghat and Shahadol show significant decreasing trend while only district Khandwa showed significant increasing trend.

a b

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c d

e f Fig.6 Trends in district rainfall for (a) June, (b) July (c) August (d) September (e ) JJAS and (f) annual

5. Analysis of Average frequencies for rainfall events of different intensities

5.1 Average frequency of Rainy days The average frequency of rainy days is calculated for Madhya Pradesh for June, July, August, September, June to September and Annual. Figure 7 shows that in the month of June the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range of 7 to 8 days especially in some parts of Chhindwara, Seoni, Mandla, Balaghat, Dindori, Umaria, Sidhi, Jabalpur, Narsingpur, Hoshangabad,Sagar, Vidisha, Bhopal, Bast districts. While minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 4 to 4.82 days especially in some parts of Neemuch, Sheopur, Morena, Bhind,

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Gwalior, Shivpuri, Datia, Tikamgarh, Chhatarpur, Panna, Dhar, Rajgarh districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of rainy days lies in the range of 7 to 9 days.

In the month of July the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range of 13.6 to 15 days especially in some parts of Balaghat, Seoni, Mandla, Dindori, Anupur, Umaria, Chhindwara, Betul, Hoshangabad, Alirajpur, Sehore, Bhopal, Raisen, Vidisha, Sagar districts. While minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 9 to 10.7 days especially in some parts of Sheopur, Morena, Bhind, Gwalior, Datia, Shivpuri, Neemuch, Mandsaur, Rajgarh, Tikamgarh, Narsingpur districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of rainy days lies in the range of 10.7 to 13.6 days (Figure 8).

Figure 9 shows that in the month of August the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range of 3 to 15 days especially in some parts of Balaghat, Seoni, Mandla, Jabalpur, Dindori, Umaria, Katni, Damoh, Panna, Sagar, Raisen, Vidisha, Hoshangabad, Betul, Chhindwara, Harda, Sidhi, Narsingpur districts. While minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 9 to 10.87 days especially in some parts of Sheopur, Morena, Bhind, Gwalior, Datia, Shivpuri, Neemuch, Mandsaur, Barwani, Khargone, Dhar, Bast Nimar, Burhanpur, Indore, Dewas, Shjapur, Narsingpur districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of rainy days lies in the range of 10.87 to 13.59 days.

During the month of September the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range of 8.32 to 9 days especially in some parts of Balaghat, Seoni, Chhindwara, Betul, Mandla, Pindori, Umaria, Jabalpur, Annupur, Shahadol, Singrauli, Sidhi, Rewa, Katni, Sagar, Damoh districts. While minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 5 to 6.26 days especially in some parts of Narsingpur, Neemuch, Mandla, Ratllam, Ujjain, Shajapur, Rajgarh, Indore, Guna, Ashoknagar, Snhivpuri, Datia, Gwalior, Sheopur, Morena, Bhind districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of rainy days lies in the range of 6.26 to 8.32 days (Figure 10).

Figure 11 depicts that during June to September the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range of 40 to 44 days especially in some parts of Balaghat, Seoni, Mandla, Dindori, Jabalpur, Umaria, Anuppur, Sidhi, Damoh, Sagar, Hoshangabad, Betul, Chhindwara, Narsingpur districts. While minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 27 to 30.8 days especially in some parts of Morena, Bhind, Gwalior, Datia, Sheopur, Neemuch, Barwani, Khargone, Indore, Rajgarh, Shajapur, Narsingpur, Tikamgarh districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of rainy 13 days lies in the range of 30.8 to 40.1 days.

During the entire year the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range of 47 to 52 days especially in some parts of Balaghat, Seoni, Mandla, Dindori, Narsingpur, Jabalpur, Katni, Chhindwara, Betul, Hoshangabad, Sagar, Sidhi districts. While minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 32 to 36.6 days especially in some parts of Morena, Bhind, Gwalior, Datia, Sheopur, Shivpuri, Ashoknagar, Tikamgarh, Chhatarpur, Satna, Singrauli, Rajgrah, Neemuch, Mandsaur, Ratlam, Barwani, Dhar, Khargone, Indore, Dewas, Shajapur, Ujjain, Narsingpur districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of rainy days lies in the range of 36.6 to 47.7 days (Figure 12).

Fig. 7 Average frequency of rainy days: June Fig. 8 Average frequency of rainy days: July

Fig. 9 Average frequency of rainy days: Fig. 10 Average frequency of rainy days: August September

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Fig. 11 Average frequency of rainy days: Fig. 12 Average frequency of rainy days: JJAS Annual

5.2 Average frequency of Heavy rainfall days

The average frequency of Heavy rainfall days is calculated for Madhya Pradesh for June, July, August, September, June to September and Annual. Figure 13 shows that in the month of June the maximum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0.4 to 1 day especially in some parts of Sagar, Raisen, Vidisha, Damoh, Jabalpur, Katni, Panna, Chhatarpur, Satna, Shahdol, Umaria, Anuppur, Dindori, Manla Balaghat, Seoni, Getul, Sehore, Khargone, Alirajpuir districts. While minimum number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0.1 to 0.22 days especially in some parts of Bhind, Morena, Gwalior, Datia, Shivpuri, Sheopur, Neemuch, Mandsaur, Ratlam, Jhbua, Khargone, Barwani, Narsingpur, Shajapur, Burhanpur, Umaria, Hoshangabad, Chhindwara, Sehore districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0.22 to 0.41 days.

Figure 14 depicts that in the month of July the maximum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 1.22 to 2 days especially in some parts of Harda, Betul, Chhindwara, Hoshangabad, Sehor, Raisen, Sagar, Narsingpur, Vidisha, Rajgarh, Guna, Shajapur, Ujjain, Balaghat, Seoni, Jabalpur, Damoh, Panna, Satna, Shahadol districts. While minimum number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0.6 to 0.77 days especially in some parts of Bhind, Morena, Gwalior, Datia, Shivpuri, Sheopur, Tikamgarh, Chhatarpur, Damoh, Sagar, Satna, Reva, Singrauli, Shahdol, Anuppur, Dindoli, Jabalpur, Chhindwara, Betul, Burhanpur, Khargone, Barwani, Dhar, Alirajpur districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the

15 range of 0.77 to 1.22 days.

It can be viewed from Figure 15 that in the month of August the maximum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 1.05 to 2 days especially in some parts of Jhabua, Ratlam, Mandsaur, Shajapur, Rajgarh, Sehor, Betul, Hoshangabad, Chhindwara, Narsingpur, Raisen, Vidisha, Sagar, Damoh, Jabalpur, Dindori, Mandla, Balaghat, Shahadol, Tikamgarh, Chhatarpur, Katni, Umaria, Sidhi, Singrauli districts. While minimum number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0.5 to 0.68 days especially in some parts of Bhind, Morena, Shivpuri, Sheopur, Datia, Ashoknagar, Rajgarh, Mandsaur, Dhar, Indore, Barwani, Khargone, Bast Nimar, Burhanpur, Betul, Chhindwara, Balaghat, Anuppur, Sidhi, Rewa, Satna districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0.68 to 1.05 days.

Figure 16 shows that during September the maximum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0.56 to 1 days especially in some parts of Alirajpur, Dhar, Barwani, Khargone, Bast Nimar, Dewas, Harda, Betul, Hoshangabad, Chhindwara, Narsingpur, Raisen, Sagar, Damoh, Chhatarpur, Tikamgarh, Panna,Satna, Rewa, Sidhi, Singrauli, Shahdol, Umaria, Dindori, Jabalpur, Katni, Seoni, Balaghat, Jabalpur districts. While minimum number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0.22 to 0.34 days especially in some parts of Sheopur, Morena, Shivpuri, Gwalior, Bhind, Guna, Rajgarh, Mandsaur, Neemuch, Ratlam, Ujjain, Jhabua, Barwani, Indore, Burhanpur, Bhopal, Vidisha, Sagar, Damoh, Narsingpur, Chhindwara, Betul, Seoni, Mandla, Katni, Balaghat, Dindori, Anuppur, Umaria districts, the number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0.34 to 0.56 days.

During June to September period the maximum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 2.91 to 4 days especially in some parts of Balaghat, Mandla, Jabalpur, Dindori, Umaria, Shahdol, Singrauli, Betul, Chhindwara, Narsingpur, Harda, Hoshangabad, Sehor, Raisen, Sagar, Damoh, Panna, Chhatarpur, Rajgarh, Guna, Shajapur, Ujjain, Ratlam districts. While minimum number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 1 to 1.96 days especially in some parts of Bhind, Morena, Sheopur, Shivpuri, Gwalior, Datia, Barwani, Khargone, Burhanpur, Bast Nimar, Indore, Rajgarh, Betul, Chhindwara, Umaria, Satna, Rewa, Chhatarpur districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 1.96 to 2. 91days (Figure 17).

Figure 18 shows that during the entire year the maximum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 3.04 to 4 days especially in some parts of Shajpur, Rajgarh, Guna, Betul, 16

Hoshangabad, Harda, Chhindwara, Narsingpur, Raisen, Vidisha, Sagar, Damoh, Jabalpur, Dindori, Balaghat, Umaria, Shahadol, Chhatarpur, Panna, Satna, Singrauli districts. While minimum number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 1 to 2.07 days especially in some parts of Bhind, Morena, Gwalior, Datia, Sheopur, Shivpuri, Rajgarh, Indore, Khargone, Barwani, Burhanpur, Betul, Chhindwara, Narsingpur, Balaghat, Jabalpur, Umaria, Anuppur, Rewa, Satna Whereas in remaining districts, the number of Heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 2.07 to 3.04 days.

Fig. 13 Average frequency of heavy rainfall days: Fig. 14 Average frequency of rainy days: July June

Fig. 15 Average frequency of rainy days: August Fig. 16 Average frequency of rainy days: September

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Fig. 17 Average frequency of rainy days: JJAS Fig. 18 Average frequency of rainy days: Annual

5.3 Average frequency of Dry days The average frequency of dry days is calculated for Madhya Pradesh for June, July, August, September, June to September and Annual. Figure 19 shows that in the month of June the maximum number of dry days lies in the range of 23.66 to 25 days especially in some parts of Bhind, Morena, Gwalior, Shivpuri, Sheopur, Datia, Ashoknagar, Guna, Shajapur, Neemuch, Mandsaur, Ratlam, Jhabua, Dhar, Burhanpur, Narsingpur, Tikamgarh, Chhatarpur, Panna, Satna, Rewa districts. While minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 22 to 20.95 days especially in some parts of Guna, Bhopal, Indore, Raisen, Hoshangabad, Betul, Burhanpur, Bas Nimar, Chhindwara, Narsingpur, Seoni, Balaghat, Mandla, Dindori, Anuppur, Umaria, Jabalpur, Sagar, Damoh, Sidhi districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of dry days lies in the range of 20.95 to 23.66 days.

Figure 20 shows that in the month of July the maximum number of dry days lies in the range of 17.74 to 19 days especially in some parts of Bhind, Morena, Sheopur, Gwalior, Shivpuri, Datia, Tikamgarh, Neemuch, Shajapur, Rajgarh, Barwani, Dhar, Narsingpur, Hoshangabad, Chhatarpur, Satna, Rewa, Sidhi districts. While minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 12 to 14.15 days especially in some parts of Ratlam, Jhabua, Alirajpur, Barwani, Ujjain, Indore, Guna, Vidisha, Bhopal, Raisen, Hoshangabad, Betul, Chhindwara, Narsingpur, Sagar, Seoni, Balaghat, Mandla, Jabalpur, Dindori, Anuppur, Umaria, Satna, Panna, Chhatarpur, Sagar districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of dry days lies in the range of 14.15 to 17 .74 days.

In the month of August the maximum number of dry days lies in the range of 17.6 to 19

18 days especially in some parts of Morena, Bhind, Sheopur, Gwalior, Datia, Shivpuri, Ashoknagar, Tikamgarh, Satna, Rewa, Rajgarh, Shajapur, Mandsaur, Ratlam, Dhar, Indore, Dewas, Khandwa, Narsingpur districts. While minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 12 to 14 days especially in some parts of Balaghat, Mandla, Seoni, Dindori, Umaria, Jabalpur, Narsingpur, Damoh, Hoshangabad, Betul, Sagar, Raisen, Vidisha, Khandwa, Bhopal, Guna, Indore, Ratlam, Dhar, Alirajpur, Barwani, Chhatarpur, Panna, Satna, Sidhi, Shahdol districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of dry days lies in the range of 14 to 17.6 days (Figure 21).

It can be seen from Figure 22 that in the month of September the maximum number of dry days lies in the range of 22.17 to 23 days especially in some parts of Bhind, Morena, Sheopur, Datia, Shivpuri, Guna, Ashoknagar, Tikamgarh, Rajgarh, Shajapur, Ujjain, Ratlam, Neemuch, Mandsaur, Dewas, Betul districts. While minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 18 to 19.45 days especially in some parts of Dhar, Indore, Barwani, Burhanpur, Bhopal, Guna, Betul, Hoshangabad, Raisen, Sagar, Damoh, Narsingpur, Chhindwara, Seoni, Balaghat, Mandla, Dindori, Anuppur, Shahdol, Umaria, Jabalpur, singrauli, Sidhi, Rewa, Satna, Chhatarpur districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of dry days lies in the range of 19.45 to 22.17 days (Figure 21).

Figure 23 depicts that during June to September period the maximum number of dry days lies in the range of 76.51 to 81 days especially in some parts of Bhind, Morena, Gwalior, Sheopur, Shivpuri, Datia, Ashoknagar, Tikamgarh, Guna, Rajgarh, Shajapur, Ratlam, Neemuch, Mandsaur, Dhar, Dewas, Basts Nimar, Rewa, Satna districts. While minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 60 to 64.56 days especially in some parts of Gwalior, Guna, Indore, Dhar, Ratlam, Barwani, Khargone, Bast Nimar, Bhopal, Raisen, Sagar, Damoh, Betul, Chhindwara, Seoni, Balaghat, Hoshangabad, Narsingpur, Jabalpur, Mandla, Dindori, Anuppur, Umaria, Katni, Singrauli, Sidhi, Rewa, Satna districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of dry days lies in the range of 64.56 to 76.51 days.

Figure 24 shows that during the entire year the maximum number of dry days lies in the range of 292.1 to 300 days especially in some parts of Sheopur, Morena, Bhind, Gwalior, Shivpur, Ashoknagar, Guna, Rajgarh, Shajapur, Neemuch, Mandsaur, Ratlam, Ujjain, Dhar, Indore, Vidisha, Sagar, Chhatarpur, Tikamgarh, Panna, Burhanpur, Bast Nimar districts. While minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 261 to 269.5 days especially in some parts of Balaghat, Mandla, Dindori, Anuppur, Shahdol, Singrauli, Sidhi, Rewa, Satna, Umaria, Katni, Jabalpur, Seoni, 19

Chhindwara, Betul, Hoshangabad, Narsingpur, Raisen, Harda, Alirajpur, Dhar, Barwani, Khargone, Jhabua, Indore, Dewas, Morena, Gwalior, Tikamgarh districts. Whereas in remaining districts, the number of dry days lies in the range of 269.5 to 292.1 days.

Fig. 19 Average frequency of dry days: June Fig. 20 Average frequency of dry days: July

Fig. 21 Average frequency of dry days: August Fig. 22 Average frequency of dry days: September

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Fig. 23 Average frequency of dry days: JJAS Fig. 24 Average frequency of dry days: Annual

6 Trends in the frequencies of different rainfall events

6.1Trend in frequency of Rainy days The Trend in frequency of rainy days is calculated for the raingauge stations of Madhya Pradesh for June, July, August, September, June to September and Annual. Figure 25 shows that in the month of June there is a significant increase in Rainy days in stations in Chhindwara, Satna, Rewa, Vidisha, Guna, Datia, Bhind, West & South east parts of Gwalior districts. Whereas there is a significant decrease in Rainy days in stations in Gwalior, Northwest and Northeast parts of Khargone, Seoni, Balaghat, districts. While remaining districts did not show any significant change.

Figure 26 shows that in the month of July most of the districts show significant increase in Rainy days except Gwalior, Indore, Narsingpur, districts which show significant decreasing trend. While remaining districts did not show any significant change.

In the month of August most of the parts of Madhya Pradesh show significant decrease in trend except Ratlam, Alirajpur, Dhar, of west Madhya Pradesh significant increasing trend (Figure 27).

Figure 28 shows that in the month of September there is a significant increase in Rainy

21 days in stations in North Jhabua, Central and South Barwani, West parts of Khargone, East part of Dindori, and East parts of Dhar districts. Whereas there is a significant decrease in Rainy days in stations in North and East parts of Gwalior, Datia Panna, Sagar, Rajgarh, Raisen. While remaining districts did not show any significant change.

In the month of June to September most of the parts of Madhya Pradesh show significant increase in Rainy days except in Indore, Khargone, Raisen, Narsingpur, Balaghat, Singrauli, and Gwalior districts which show significant decrease in trend. While remaining districts did not show any significant change (Figure 29).

Figure 30 shows that in the month of during the entire year most parts of Madhya Pradesh show a significant increase in Rainy days except Gwalior, Singrauli, Raisen, Betul, Hoshangabad, Narsingpur, Indore, Khargone which show significant decrease in trend. While remaining districts did not show any significant change.

Fig. 25 Trend in frequency of rainy days: June Fig. 26Trend in frequency of rainy days: July

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Fig. 27Trend in frequency of rainy days: August Fig. 28Trend in frequency of rainy days: September

Fig. 29 Trend in frequency of rainy days: JJAS Fig. 30 Trend in frequency of rainy days: Annual

6.2 Trend in frequency of Heavy rainfall days The Trend in frequency of Heavy rainfall days is calculated for Madhya Pradesh for June, July, August, September, June to September and Annual. Figure 31 shows that in the month of June there is a significant increase in Heavy rainfall days in Bast Nimar, Rajgarh, Damoh, Sheoni, Mandla districts. Whereas there is a significant decrease in Heavy rainfall days in Alirajpur, Satna, Dhar, Khargone, Hoshangabad, Burhanpur, Betul(Northwest and Central parts), Anuppur, Shahdol districts. While remaining districts did not show any significant change.

Figure 32 shows that in the month of July most parts of Madhya Pradesh show

23 significant decrease in Heavy rainfall trend except Jhabua, Dhar, Shajapur, Betul districts which show increase in trend.

In the month of August most parts of Madhya Pradesh, show significant decrease in trend in heavy rainfall days except Indore, Neemuch, Betul and Chhindwara districts which show significant increase in trend in heavy rainfall days Figure 33.

Figure 34 shows that in the month of September most parts of Madhya Pradesh, show significant decrease in trend in heavy rainfall days except Alirajpur and Dewas districts which show significant increase in trend in heavy rainfall days.

During the entire period of June to September most of western parts of Madhya Pradesh, show significant increase in trend in heavy rainfall days while most of eastern parts of Madhya Pradesh show significant decrease in trend (Figure 35).

Figure 36 shows that during the entire year most of western parts of Madhya Pradesh, show significant increase in trend in heavy rainfall days while most of eastern parts of Madhya Pradesh show significant decrease in trend.

Fig.31 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: Fig. 32 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: June July

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Fig. 33 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: Fig. 34 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: August September

Fig. 35 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: Fig. 36 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: JJAS Annual

6.3 Trend in frequency of Dry days The Trend in frequency of dry days is calculated for Madhya Pradesh for June, July, August, September, June to September and Annual. Figure 37 shows that in the month of June most of western parts of Madhya Pradesh, show significant increase in trend in heavy rainfall days while most of eastern parts of Madhya Pradesh show significant decrease in trend.

Figure 38 shows that in the month of July most of western parts of Madhya Pradesh, show significant decrease in trend in dry days except Gwalior, Indore, Narsingpur, Balaghat, Dindori, Katni districts. 25

In the month of August most of western parts of Madhya Pradesh, show significant increase in trend in dry days except Sheopur, Neemuch, Dhar, Barwani, Seoni, districts (Figure 39).

Figure 40 shows that in the month of September most of western parts of Madhya Pradesh, show significant increase in trend in dry days except Indore, Dhar, Barwani & Anuppur districts.

During the entire period of June to September most of western parts of Madhya Pradesh, show significant increase in trend in dry days except Ratlam, Indore, Khargone, Betul and Singrauli districts (Figure 41).

Figure 42 shows that during the entire year most of western parts of Madhya Pradesh, show significant increase in trend in dry days while most of the southern parts of Madhya Pradesh show decrease in trend. While remaining districts did not show any significant change.

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Fig. 37 Trend in frequency of dry days: June Fig. 38Trend in frequency of dry days: July

Fig. 39 Trend in frequency of dry days: August Fig. 40 Trend in frequency of dry days: September

Fig. 41 Trend in frequency of dry days: JJAS Fig. 42 Trend in frequency of dry days: Annual

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7. Conclusions

In the present study we have investigated the rainfall pattern and it its variability and also changes based on recent 30 years data. In the analysis we have considered monsoon months, the monsoon season and annual scale. The spatial scale has been considered from state to district for study of rainfall total and stations are being considered for seeing intensities of rainfall. The analysis brought many significant features of rainfall pattern and can be used for water agricultural managements. Some of the important results can be summarized as:

Madhya Pradesh gets maximum rainfall in July (35% of SW monsoon rainfall) followed by August (33 % of SW monsoon rainfall).

92% of annual rainfall receives during southwest monsoon rainfall (June –September).

Agar, Neemuch, Harda, Katni, and Alirajpur region receive 94-95% of annual rainfall in SW monsoon season while Anuppur, Bhind, Chhindwara, Seoni and Umaria districts receive 84-88% of annual rainfall in SW monsoon season.

No significant increasing/decreasing trends in June, July, August, September monthly rainfall.

Maximum rainfall receive during the SW monsoon season over the districts in Dindori, Mandla, Hoshangabad, Jabalpur and Balaghat region ( 1131mm – 1178 mm) while parts of Bhind, Morena, Sheopur & Barwani received lowest rainfall (621-672mm). Sheopur district receives lowest rainfall of 646 mm.

Maximum rainfall receive during the year over the districts in Dindori,Mandla, Balaghat, Hoshangabad, Jabalpur region (1239mm -1303mm) while parts Sheopur receives lowest annual rainfall of 693mm.

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Significant increasing trend in SW monsoon rainfall has been noticed in while Balaghat and Shahdol districts show significant decreasing trend.

In annual rainfall Khandwa shows significant increasing trend while Balaghat and Shahdol show significant decreasing trend.

Southeast Madhya Pradesh regions receive on an average 37-44 rainy days (daily rainfall >=2.5mm) out of 122 days of SW monsoon season while Madhya Pradesh excluding Northern Parts and Southwest parts gets 34-37 rainy days and extreme northern and some parts of west Madhya Pradesh get even less than 34 rainy days.

For heavy to extremely heavy rainfall ( daily rainfall >=6.5mm) Central region of Madhya Pradesh gets 3-4 days during the SW monsoon season, western parts of Madhya Pradesh and NE parts of the state get around 2-3 heavy to extremely heavy rainfall days. While extreme north Madhya Pradesh and some parts of SW Madhya Pradesh get <2 rainy days.

Number of dry days is maximum over extreme northern parts of the state (76-81 dry days out of 122 days during the SW monsoon season while on an average 286-300 dry days in 365 days have been noticed in remaining districts of Madhya Pradesh.

During the period June to September there is a significant increase in the frequency of Rainy days in stations in Balaghat, Mandla, Seoni, Jabalpur, Dindori & Chhindwara districts. Whereas there is a significant decrease in Rainy days in in stations Morena, Bhind, Gwalior, Sheopur, Datia and Shivpuri districts.

During the entire year there is a significant increase in Rainy days in Balaghat, Seoni, Chhindwara, Mandla, Dindori and Jabalpur districts. Whereas there is a significant decrease in Rainy days in Morena, Bhind, Gwalior, Datia, Shivpuri, Neemuch, Barwani and Dewas districts.

During the period June to September there is a significant increase in Heavy rainfall days in Vidisha, Sagar, Raisen, Damoh, Narsingpur, Jabalpur, Betul, Hoshangabad and

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Balaghat districts. Whereas there is a significant decrease in Heavy rainfall days in Morena, Bhind, Sheopur, Gwalior, Datia, Shivpuri, Barwani and Burhanpur districts. While remaining districts did not show any significant change.

During the entire year there is a significant increase in Heavy rainfall days in Vidisha, Raisen, Sagar, Damoh, Hoshangabad, Betul, Chhindwara, Balaghat, Mandla & Dindori districts. Whereas there is a significant decrease in Heavy rainfall days in Morena, Bhind, Gwalior, Sheopur, Shivpuri, Datia and Burhanpur. districts.

During June to September there is a significant increase in dry days in Balaghat, Mandla, Seoni, Anuppur, Jabalpur, Chhindwara, Betul, Hoshangabad, Narsingpur, Dindori and Indore districts. Whereas there is a significant decrease in dry days in Morena, Bhind, Sheopur, Shivpuri, Gwalior Datia, Neemuch, Shajapur and Guna districts.

During the entire year there is a significant increase in dry days in Balaghat, Mandla, Dindori, Anuppur, Shahdol, Umaria, Katni, Singrauli, Satna, Rewa, Sidhi, Jabalpur, Seoni, Chhindwara, Hoshangabad, Narsingpur, Damoh, Barwani, Indore and Alirajpur districts. Whereas there is a significant decrease in dry days in Morena, Bhind, Gwalior, Shivpuri, Sheopur, Neemuch, Mandsaur, Ratlam, Ujjan, Shajapur, Raigarh and Guna districts.

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Acknowledgement:

The authors acknowledge Secretary, MOES, DGM, India Meteorological Department and Head, Climate Research and Services for guidance, suggestions and encouragement to carry out the works. Acknowledge also to Hydrology section and National Data Centre India Meteorological Department Pune for making availability of the data.

References:

1. Guhathakurta P, Rajeevan M, Sikka D R and Tyagi A, 2015 “Observed changes in southwest monsoon rainfall over India during 1901–2011”, Int. J. Climatol, 35, 1881-1898. 2. Guhathakurta P, Sreejith O P and Menon P A, 2011 “Impact of climate changes on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India”, J. Earth System Science. 120, No. 3, 359-373. 3. Guhathakurta P and Rajeevan M, 2008 “Trends in rainfall pattern over India” International J. of Climatology, 28: 1453–1469

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The report brings out observed rainfall variability and trends over the state as an impact of climate change based on recent 30 years of data ( 1981 - 2018 )

Rainfall pattern of monsoon months, south west monsoon season and annual of the state and it’s districts as well as extreme rainfall event of different intensity of stations are analysed.

Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes over Andhra Pradesh State

PREPARED AND DESIGNED AT HYDROMETEOROLOGY SECTION CLIMATE APPLICATION AND USER INTERFACE GROUP CLIMATE RESEARCH AND SERVICES, PUNE