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Madhya Pradesh State CLIMATE RESEARCH AND SERVICES INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES PUNE Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes over Madhya Pradesh State Met Monograph No.: ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/15(2020)/39 Pulak Guhathakurta, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, S T Sable, Sunita Bhandari, Archana Shinde, Anupam Kashyapi GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT Met Monograph No.: ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/15(2020)/39 Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes Over Madhya Pradesh State Pulak Guhathakurta, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, S.T. Sable, Sunita Bhandari, Archana Shinde and Anupam Kashyapi INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT PUNE - 411005 1 DOCUMENT AND DATA CONTROL SHEET 1 Document Title Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes Over Madhya Pradesh State 2 Issue No. ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/15(2020)/39 3 Issue Date January 2020 4 Security Unclassified Classification 5 Control Status Uncontrolled 6 Document Type Scientific Publication 7 No. of Pages 31 8 No. of Figures 42 9 No. of References 3 10 Distribution Unrestricted 11 Language English 12 Authors Pulak Guhathakurta, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, S.T. Sable, Sunita Bhandari, Archana Shinde and Anupam Kashyapi 13 Originating Climate Research Division/ Climate Application & User Division/ Group Interface Group/ Hydrometeorology 14 Reviewing and Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Approving Department, New Delhi Authority 15 End users Central and State Ministries of Water resources, agriculture and civic bodies, Science and Technology, Disaster Management Agencies, Planning Commission of India 16 Abstract India is in the tropical monsoon zone and receives plenty of rainfall as most of the annual rainfall during the monsoon season every year. However, the rainfall is having high temporal and spatial variability and due to the impact of climate changes there are significant changes in the mean rainfall pattern and their variability as well as in the intensity and frequencies of extreme rainfall events. The report brings the result of the analysis based on the recent 30 years of data (1989-2018) on the mean spatial rainfall pattern as well as mean spatial pattern of different rainfall events, trends and variability as well as extreme rainfall events during the monsoon months and annual for the state. 17 Key Words Rainfall trend, variability, extreme events, dry days 2 1. Introduction The State of Madhya Pradesh is a state of central India and lies within 21.6°N to 26.30o N latitude 74.15o to 82.8o E longitude. The state shares border with the others states of Uttar Pradesh in the northeastern side, Rajasthan in the northwestern side, Gujarat in western side, Chhattisgarh in southeastern side, Maharashtra in southern side. The terrain consists of extensive plateau regions of more than 500 m.a.s.l. in the central parts with elevation just exceeding 1 Km. at a few places only and broken hills to the south. Meteorological purposes the State has two sub-divisions, namely, East Madhya Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh. Geographical location and orographic features have profound influence on the climate of the State, which is practically free from maritime influence. The year may be divided into four seasons. The winter season from January to February is followed by the summer season from March to May. The period June to September constitutes the southwest monsoon season and the period from October to December forms the post monsoon season. The period from November to March is generally pleasant over entire state except during a few spells when severe cold waves associated with western disturbances affect northern parts of the State in winter months. The months of April and May are hot, very dry and generally uncomfortable. Due to lower temperatures, the plateau regions are however comparatively less uncomfortable in summer. Weather tends to be oppressive during June due to high humidity and temperature. The next three months (July, August and September) are fairly comfortable due temperatures, although the humidity continues to be very high. Many studies are available on the observed trends and variability of rainfall and also extreme rainfall events, but all the studies are based on past 100 years or more data and also the recent years are not included (Guhathakurta et al, 2015; Guhathakurta et al, 2011; Guhathakurta & Rajeevan, 2008 etc). In the present report all the analysis of observed rainfall patterns, trends and variability have been done based on recent past 30 years (1989-2018) that will help to have idea of the recent changes for climate change adaptation and management by the state authorities. 2. Data and Methodology Daily Rainfall data from 1989 to 2018 is considered for analysis of trend variability and mean rainfall patterns. From the daily rainfall data monthly rainfall series of each stations are computed and then monthly district rainfall series has been constructed by considering arithmetic average of all the station rainfall values within the district. The monthly rainfall series of the state has been computed by using area weighted rainfall values of all the districts within the state. The objective of the analysis is to: 3 1. Identify the spatial pattern of the mean rainfall 2. Understand district wise observed rainfall trend and variability in annual and SW monsoon season (June, July, august and September). Daily station rainfall data is utilized for identification of the mean spatial patterns and rainfall intensity trends. From mean and standard deviation (SD), the coefficient of variation (CV) is calculated as follows: Standard Deviation Coeffcient of variation (CV) = × 100 Mean The analysis has been done in two parts. For identification of the spatial pattern mean rainfall and variability and also observed trends we have used district rainfall series and results have been brought out for four southwest monsoon months viz. June, July, August, September, for the southwest monsoon season and also for annual. Fig.1 gives the location of the districts of the state. For identification of mean pattern and also trends of intensities of various rainfall events we used the station daily rainfall data. Fig. 1 Location of the districts of Madhya Pradesh 3. State rainfall mean and variability and trend Table 1 shows the mean rainfall (mm) and coefficient of variation of the state for the monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual during the period 1989-2018. It can be seen that the state gets highest rainfall (35%) of south west monsoon rainfall in July month while the August month get 33% of the south west monsoon rainfall. June and September receive 14% and 18% of south west monsoon rainfall. Also more 4 than 92% of annual rainfall receives during the southwest monsoon season only. The variability of monsoon or annual rainfall is also very less (18%). June July August September JJAS Annual Mean 127.4 323.6 304.3 166.2 921.4 997.8 CV 53.6 26.6 28.0 53.8 18.0 17.6 Table 1 Mean rainfall (mm) and coefficient of variation of the state for the monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual Fig. 2 and 3 show the time series of rainfall in mm for the months of June, July, August, September and southwest monsoon season, annual respectively. The trend lines are also displayed for each of the series. Neither monthly rainfall nor seasonal or annual rainfall show any significant increasing/decreasing trend. In the monthly rainfall July rainfall show increasing trend while August and September rainfall show decreasing trend. Both seasonal and annual rainfall show decreasing trend. During the last 30 years highest rainfall of July and August received in the year 2016 and 1994 (484.7mm and 443.2 mm) respectively while highest rainfall of 412.5mm in September received in the year 1999 and of 273.4mm in June received in the year 2011. Highest annual rainfall of 1399.5 mm received in the year 2013 and highest southwest monsoon rainfall of 1291.0 mm received in the year 1994. 5 Fig. 2 Time series of rainfall in mm for the months of June, July, August, September and trends Fig. 3 Time series of rainfall in mm for the southwest monsoon season and annual trends 6 4. District rainfall mean, variability and trend 4.1 Mean and coefficient of variation Table 2 gives the rainfall statistics for the districts of Maharashtra for the four monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual while Fig. 4-5 show the spatial pattern of these statistics. It can be seen that the districts viz. Dindori, Balaghat, Seoni, Mandla, Raisen, Sagar, Chhindwara,Vidisha, Hoshangabad and Jabalpur receive highest rainfall over other districts during all the months and season. Rainfall receives over these districts are around 150-200 mm in June, 370-422 mm in July, 340-400mm in August, 180-210 mm in September and during the SW monsoon and annual 1035-1301mm. Lowest rainfall receives during the SW monsoon season over Bhind district (621.2mm) while Sheopur district receives lowest annual rainfall (692.5mm). JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER MONSOON ANNUAL DISTRICT MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV BALAGHAT 173.7 59.1 398.6 42.7 364.4 32.2 194.0 64.2 1130.6 28.9 1258.3 34.4 BARWANI 107.1 56.6 216.0 40.6 200.7 62.1 149.3 48.3 673.0 33.5 717.6 39.1 BETUL 147.3 57.4 363.4 45.6 321.0 48.5 192.0 76.6 1023.7 30.4 1121.2 32.5 BHIND 66.4 94.2 220.4 54.2 203.3 48.5 133.2 75.1 623.3 43.8 694.5 49.3 BHOPAL 129.9 65.6 334.8 36.3 303.5 53.5 147.7 74.5 915.8 26.7 1008.1 30.8 CHHATARPUR 122.8 90.7 289.0
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