Wind Energy in the United Kingdom: Modelling the Effect of Increases in Installed Capacity on Generation Efficiencies Anthony D Stephens and David R Walwyn Correspondence to
[email protected] Abstract The decision by the government in December 2007 that the United Kingdom (UK) should build a 33 gigawatt wind fleet, capable of generating about 10 gigawatts or 25% of the country’s electricity total requirement, was a controversial one. Proponents argued that it was the most attractive means of lowering the country’s greenhouse gas emissions, whereas opponents noted that it would result in an unnecessary and burdensome additional expense to UK industry and households. Subsequently there have been calls for the wind fleet target to be further increased to perhaps 50% of demand. Although the National Grid has had little difficulty in accommodating the current output of about 10% of the total demand on the grid, this will not be the case for a substantially larger wind fleet. When the wind blows strongly, turbines shed wind/energy which is surplus to demand, leading to significant reductions in generating efficiencies. The purpose of the research described in this paper has been to develop a method for investigating the likely performance of future large UK wind fleets. The method relies on the use of mathematical models based on National Grid records for 2013 to 2015, each year being separately analysed. It was found that the three models derived using 2013, 2014 and 2015 data were sensibly the same, despite a 30% increase in installed capacity over this period. Importantly the predictions were either relatively insensitive to, or could compensate for, perturbations likely to be seen by the grid in future, indicating that the model from a single year’s records should have wide applicability as a predictive tool.