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Velvet Revolution’ in Armenia 2018 ______Nina Kolarzik

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Velvet Revolution’ in Armenia 2018 ______Nina Kolarzik Revolutions and the International: The Negotiated Character of the ‘Velvet Revolution’ in Armenia 2018 _____________________________________ Nina Kolarzik International Relations Department of Global Political Studies Bachelor’s Degree Programme – IR103L, IR 61-90 15 Credits Thesis Summer 2020 Supervisor: Scott McIver Kolarzik, Nina 19970512T086 Abstract In a global system of increasing instability and civil society protest movements, it is important for IR to pay attention to revolutions. In the past, Marxist-structuralist theories have contributed to the research on revolutions and the international but are insufficient to explain recent cases and a contemporary generation of scholars has provided more multivariate and processual theories about revolutions. Within this field, this thesis concerns the theory development about revolutions and their international dimension. The guiding argument guiding is that revolutions are internatio na l events which are being shaped by and shaping the international system. Using the concept of “negotiated revolutions” by George Lawson, the Armenian “Velvet Revolution” 2018 is analysed as a comparative case-study to describe its international aspects. By applying the theory to a new case, it can be explored whether it still holds in another context beyond the cases with that Lawson established it. The analysis uses qualitative data from multiple sources, employing an intersoc iet y approach and incorporating different contemporary explanations into the analysis of the case and its characteristics. It is concluded that the concept negotiated revolution is well suited to explain the dynamics of the Armenian Revolution in relation to the international system. Key Words: Velvet Revolutio n, Armenia, theories of revolution, negotiated revolutio ns, critical theories Word Count: 13 995 Kolarzik, Nina 19970512T086 Table of Contents 1. Introducing the Armenian Revolution 1 1.1. Structure 2 2. Build ing a Framework 3 2.1. Research on the Armenian Revolution 3 2.2. Theories of Revolution 4 2.2.1. Revolutions in IR 4 2.2.2. Define Revolutions- Past and Present 5 2.2.3. Contemporary Studies 7 2.2.4. Lawson & An Intersocietal Approach 8 2.3. A Contemporary Response: Negotiated Revolutions 9 2.3.1. Anatomy of Revolutions 9 2.3.2. Negotiated Revolutions 12 3. Methodologies 15 3.1. Methodological Influences from the Study of Revolutions 15 3.2. Comparative Case Studies 16 3.3. Research Design 17 3.3.1. Anatomy of the Armenian Revolution 18 3.3.2. The Negotiated Revolution 19 3.4. Data Collection Methods 20 4. Analysing the Armenian Revolution 22 4.1. Anatomy of the Armenian Revolution 22 4.2. The Armenian Negotiated Revolution 29 5. Conclusio ns 35 6. Bibliography 37 Kolarzik, Nina 19970512T086 1. Introducing the Armenian Revolution In the last two years, political protests in Hong Kong, the environmental “Fridays for Future” protest movement or the Armenian “Velvet Revolution”, gave the studies of revolutio nar y change new cases. While it is to be debated, which events are actual revolutions, it becomes evident that the mainstream and the academic understanding of the concept of revolution has come a long way since the for long defining French Revolution. In the past, the discipline of International Relations (IR) has widely neglected the study of revolutions, a field that is informed mainly by research from history and sociology. Revolutions in IR were reduced to be domestic events or disturbances in the regular international order, but not as constitutive events themselves (Halliday 1990:207-211; Lawson 2015:307). Contemporary scholars of interdisciplinary theories of revolution however pay attention to the international dimensions of revolutions and treat revolutions as emergent processes and conjunctural, multi-causal events, that are influenced by a variety of factors (Lawson 2016:109). The theoretical framework of this thesis can be placed within these contemporary, post-modern, critical approaches. Sparked by long-term developments and short-term trigge r s and producing various outcomes, contemporary revolutions are connected to the internatio nal on multiple levels. This thesis adds to the debates about revolutions and the international, supporting the argument that revolutions are connected at all stages with the internatio na l dimension. By changing the societies where they take place, revolutions play a part in changing the international system (Lawson 2005:474). The recent case of the “Velvet Revolution” 2018 in Armenia (AR) has not yet been explored from an IR perspective. Despite taking place inside Armenia, this thesis argues for its relevance to IR, since no revolution is purely domestic but always tied in causes, trajectories and outcomes to the international system (Halliday 1990:213; Lawson 2011:1069). The AR were protest actions that lasted from the start of a protest march on the 31st of March to the election of Nikol Pashinya n as new prime minister (PM) of Armenia on the 8th of May 2018. Existing literature about the AR (Abrahamian & Shagoyan 2018; Grigoryan 2019; Lanskoy & Suthers 2019; Iskandaryan 2018; Feldman & Alibašić 2019) suggest that there are multiple aspects of an international dimension to the AR, e.g. questions about Armenia’s foreign policy, the transnational diffusion of revolutionary repertoires and stories, the role of the diaspora, the framing of the AR and the influence of global values. Be it as aspiration for other movements or embracing the dominant ideas of the international order, Lawson argues that “[r]evolutio ns have always been international events” (2005:480). 1 Kolarzik, Nina 19970512T086 To explore this argument, the theoretical approach of George Lawson and his concept of “negotiated revolutions” is applied to the new case. The aim is to use this contemporary concept in contrast to previous theories and explore how the AR is connected to factors beyond its national borders. Deriving from previous literature on the AR, it is assumed that it can be a negotiated revolution according to the conceptualisations. Since this concept has been useful in previous works on contemporary revolutions (e.g. Lawson 2003, Kuzio 2006), it is acknowledged as a valuable concept to understand revolutions in today’s international context. This will be explored on the new case for its wider applicability beyond the cases Lawson used in his development of the theory (Halperin & Heath 2017:213), designed as a comparative single-case study. Lawson’s tool about anatomy of revolutions is employed to analyse the AR and use this knowledge for the characteristics of negotiated revolutions. Additionally, the findings of different studies in similar contexts, which go beyond a single grand IR theory, are used. The qualitative research is using news and research reports, official publications and statements, scholarly articles as well as interviews with Armenian experts and participants of the revolution. The question to be researched in this thesis is: Using Lawson’s concept of “negotiated revolutions”, what are the international dimensions of the Armenian “Velvet Revolut io n” 2018? With this case-specific research question and the descriptive purpose of the thesis, this work adds to the ongoing process of developing and improving theories and concepts for contemporary revolutions. By applying the concept “negotiated revolutions” to a new case, it helps to explore the wider generalisability of the model. Therefore, it is a contribution to the area of theories on revolutions and the international, which plays a role for IR regarding the role of revolutions in the international system and for social science in general, since revolutions are an important way for non-state actors to shape politics. 1.1. Structure The thesis at hand is structured as following: it starts with an overview about the development of theories of revolutions and the academic influences that shaped the field. This review also shows the debates about revolutions and the international and the relevance of revolutio n studies for IR. This chapter closes with a presentation of Lawson’s framework to analyse revolutions and the concept of “negotiated revolutions”, which will be applied to examine the case of the AR. From these theorisations, the methodology chapter develops a framework with concrete elements to look in-depth at the empirical case and presents the data that is used for 2 Kolarzik, Nina 19970512T086 this purpose and how it was collected, presenting in particular the interviews that were conducted. In the analysis, the anatomy of the AR is analysed in a first step. In a second step, the five elements of negotiated revolutions are investigated in the case of the AR, to explore if this concept helps to explain the revolutions international dimension. Finally, the thesis concludes by showing how the AR connects to the aspects of the concept of “negotiated revolutions” and therefore multiple international aspects. 2. Building a Framework The following sections will give an overview of research that has been conducted on revolutions and informed the theoretical framework and research design of this thesis. 2.1. Research on the Armenian Revolution This section presents the research that has been already conducted on the AR (Abrahamian & Shagoyan 2018; Grigoryan 2019; Iskandaryan 2018; Lanskoy & Suthers 2019; Feldman & Alibašić 2019): The majority of the existing literature is of explanatory nature, discussing its specific characteristics. Analyses of the protests provide a lively picture of their nature
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