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Car-Smart Industry News Weekly Car-Smart.info Industry News Weekly What’s Changing – How FastSM Automotive News and Analysis You Can Use January 16, 2006 Volume 5, Number 3 In This Issue Dear Subscribers, • Jerry York’s Prescription for GM This week included the media preview of the 2006 Detroit auto show, several • GM’s Rejoinder days of non-stop reviews and presentations by most of the world’s principal automakers. If this wasn’t enough, GM shareholder Kirk Kerkorian’s chief Detroit Auto Show Roundup advisor, Jerry York, outlined his own prescription for GM corporate health – notions not terribly appreciated by senior GM execs. There is other news, too. • Crossovers are Big… Please read on. • …So Are SUVs – with Japanese and Korean Automakers • Toyota and Nissan Reveal New “Bread-and-Butter” Cars Jerry York’s Prescription for GM • Hybrid-Electric Vehicles – GM When Kirk Kerkorian bought close to 10% of Catches Up – Sort Of GM’s outstanding common stock, the • Diesels – Why, Sure industry took notice. But before Mr. K made • Mercedes Not Alone – Honda his investment, he took notice of the Wants in on the Diesel Action analysis and opinions of his chief advisor, • Cool Premium Car Concepts Jerry York. • Production Luxury,Too Following military service (Mr. York is a West • Let’s Go Fast! Point grad), Mr. York went to work for GM…and then Ford…and then Chrysler…and Industry News then IBM…then back to Chrysler…and finally • Toyota Sees Hyundai as a for Mr. Kerkorian. Threat Mr. York’s auto industry credentials go • Fiat Auto Profit in 2006 beyond whomhe worked for. He and Hal Sperlich brought Ford’s rejected “Ohio” Supplier Insights program to Chrysler where it became the • Continental AG and ZF to Dodge Caravan and its siblings – the most Supply Hybrid Drive to VW popular minivan family in the world. • Lear Takes a $342 Million Write- Mr. York’s plan for improving GM’s fiscal health – cut the dividend by half, Down reduce executive and management salaries in a sliding scale, close plants, and • Visteon Plans $800 Million ‘chuck’ a couple of marketing divisions – have gotten wide publicity in the Restructuring popular media. These are the kinds of things Mr. York implemented during his participation in Chrysler’s and IBM’s turnarounds; they’re not magic. They’re Spotlight on China part of a long list of options GM has to consider. • China is World’s 2nd Largest Auto Market GM vice-chairman Bob Lutz didn’t think much of Mr York’s suggestions. It is his view that the steps GM has underway – renegotiation of hourly health benefits, structured plant closing and capacity reductions, and pricing policy Editor: Gerry Conover revisions are on the right track to get GM’s sick North American operations Please contact us at back on track. [email protected] Mr. York said two things that were widely overlooked by the popular media – perhaps because they required too much thought to interpret. © 2006 Car-Smart.info LLC. All rights reserved - 1 - ALL REFERENCES TO FUTURE ACTIONS ARE BASED ON GENERALLY AVAILABLE INDUSTRY DATA, TRADE RELEASES OR PAST PRACTICES PROJECTED INTO FUTURE MODEL YEARS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED BREAKING NEWS AND SUBSEQUENTLY CONSOLIDATED WITH SIMILAR INFORMATION FROM OTHER SOURCES. Car-Smart.info Industry News Weekly What’s Changing – How FastSM Automotive News and Analysis You Can Use January 16, 2006 Volume 5, Number 3 These two observations are the underpinnings of a realistic recovery plan and can serve as on-going metrics for success. First, Mr. York addressed GM’s cash “burn rate” – the rate at which continuing losses eat away at GM’s cash pile. His review of GM's financial results for the first nine months of 2005 showed a worldwide corporate net loss of $3.8 billion. For automotive operations alone the net loss was $6.0 billion, the bulk of which was in North American Operations. For the nine-month period, cash flow from automotive operations, excluding "non-recurring" items, was $6.6 billion negative. There were 273 calendar days in the first nine months of 2005, so GM’s cash burn rate was $24 million per day. Mr. York estimates that GM had about $25 billion of cash and quick-sale assets available at the end of the nine month period – $15 billion of balance sheet cash, plus $11 billion from the sale of half of GMAC less the net of several other smaller adjustments. The available $25 billion, at the current cash burn rate of $24 million per day, would keep GM going for just over a thousand days, or about three years. This assumes conditions remain the same as they were in the first nine months of 2005. If conditions get worse, the thousand days would contract and if conditions get better, the thousand days would expand. Second, Mr. York called for a sense of urgency, a “crisis mode”, for GM’s leadership. One of the reasons he recommended executive and management pay cuts was to bring home the sense of urgency up and down the chain of command. GM CFO Fritz Henderson later noted that he was already operating in crisis mode, but was not about to panic. Bob Lutz warned that any significant compensation cuts in executive ranks would likely lead to a “talent drain” with many key, needed executives taking off for other, safer industries like logistics or electronics. When all the smoke cleared, we ended up with a much better idea of where Mr. Kerkorian wants GM to go – and what he or Mr. York may insist that the GM Board of Directors order should either of them get a seat on that Board. Whether this would be constructive or disruptive will become clearer when GM reviews its 2005 financial results later this month. GM has already said it will not give an outlook for 2006. GM’s Rejoinder GM said in response to Mr. York’s suggestions that it expects to realize about $4 billion in savings in 2006 of the previously identified targeted savings of $7 billion -- comprised of $6 billion in structural costs and $1 billion in material costs. As part of the next phase of cost-cutting, GM said it is now aiming to lower its global structural costs as a percentage of revenue to 25% in 2010 from the current level of about 34%. GM said new products will help its turnaround. About 29% of GM's North American sales volume in 2006 is expected to come from recently launched cars and trucks, as well as upcoming new models. By 2007, GM, which introduced a new pricing strategy this week in a move to reduce its reliance on incentives, said it expects more than 30% of its sales volume to come from the new vehicles. © 2006 Car-Smart.info LLC. All rights reserved - 2 - Car-Smart.info Industry News Weekly What’s Changing – How FastSM Automotive News and Analysis You Can Use January 16, 2006 Volume 5, Number 3 GM’s R&D budget has been increased by $1 billion this year and despite the financial constraints, Bob Lutz said it would be a mistake not invest in new products and technologies. Detroit Auto Show Roundup Every major automaker that does business in North America (and one that doesn’t – yet) convened in Detroit for the annual North American International Auto Show. Although no longer the only motor show sanctioned by the OICA for North America, (Chicago, Los Angeles and New York pass around another sanction annually) it’s still the place where the major product and business announcements are made and where some very large deals are negotiated among companies. We won’t try your patience by recounting the details of the several dozen new cars, trucks and concepts that were revealed in Detroit during the media preview week. You’ve read about them in the popular and trade press. With 6,800 journalists reporting, the news is impossible to avoid. We prefer instead to get to the important industry trends indicated by them. Overall, many very beautiful cars and trucks…a lot of concentration of customer wants and needs…pricing rationalization…with “Big 2½” technology at least one generation behind Europe and Japan. Crossovers are Big… The expected onslaught of new crossover utility vehicles – two-box utility vehicles with more ground clearance (and available 4WD/AWD) on a unitized (or car) platform – were shown by each of the “Big 2½.” Ford went berserk with two of its own offerings and another from Mazda. All are derived from the mid-size Mazda6 platform and are further additions to the passel of ten vehicles that Three of these four CUVs are built on the same platform and one is Ford plans to take off the not. Which CUV isn’t part of the family? Answer next week. Mazda6. The Ford edge goes into Ford brand dealerships, while Lincoln-Mercury stores will get the Lincoln MKX (“Mark X” according to Ford product chieftains). Mazda dealers will enjoy the Mazda CX-7 which has unique appearance from the parent Ford Motor Company duo. © 2006 Car-Smart.info LLC. All rights reserved - 3 - Car-Smart.info Industry News Weekly What’s Changing – How FastSM Automotive News and Analysis You Can Use January 16, 2006 Volume 5, Number 3 There is nothing yet on a Mercury brand derivative – but there are two more major US auto shows yet to come in February and April. GM’s Buick brand showed a crossover “concept” – the Enclave – which we understand will be a 2007½ production model. Enclave is well-executed, neat, clean, concise…and boring.
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