Developing a Climate-Based Recreation Management System for a Mediterranean Island

DEVELOPING A CLIMATE-BASED RECREATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR A MEDITERRANEAN ISLAND

Hossein G.T. Olya1,* and Habib Alipour2

1Faculty of Tourism, British University of Nicosia, Girne, Turkey 2Faculty of Tourism, Eastern Mediterranean University, Gazimagusa, Turkey

ABSTRACT damage to the ecosystem. Hall conducted a survey that found that tourist visits damaged the vegetation cover of Weather and climate have a crucial influence on tour- Sherwood Forest in England [1]. Similarly, Filimonau et ism activities. As a result, tourism is vulnerable to the ef- al., in an assessment of the carbon impact of short-haul fects of climate change. One important category of such tourism using life-cycle analysis, revealed that tourism sig- effects is the change in climatic suitability of tourist desti- nificantly escalates the global carbon footprint [2]. Tour- nations. This study proposes a model for landscape man- ism is one of the main contributors toward global warming agement based on climate attractiveness for tourists within and climate change. Such adverse impacts of tourism could the context of the Theory of Ecological Modernization be minimized through a knowledge-based management [3- (TEM). The modelling process conforms to Ackoff’s wis- 6], the application of technology and financial sources [7] dom hierarchy, which transforms data into information, and the participation of stakeholders [8, 9]. This notion is knowledge and wisdom. Data were obtained from a mete- corroborates the principles of Theory of Ecological Mod- orological station in Northern Cyprus where the Mediterra- ernization (TEM), a school of thought in social sciences nean Sea and its favorable climate are key resources for the praised for addressing environmental issues [10]. tourism sector. The monthly Tourism Climate Index (TCI) The environmental impact of tourism is a foregone con- was used at all stations and was digitized in Geographical clusion [11]. However, the level of impact differs regionally Information System (GIS) setting. Spatial analysis was per- and is highly dependent on the concentration of tourist flow formed using Geostatistical methods, and tourism climate over time and space [12]. For instance, water consumption maps were produced for a 12 month period, aiming to iden- by the tourism sector, has become a great challenge, espe- tify temporal variations of TCI values on the island. A cli- cially in the Mediterranean but even more so in the case of mate-based Recreation Management System (RMS) is pro- water-stressed Northern region [13]. Overall, international posed to determine three variables that are both spatial and tourism water consumption may be less than 1% of na- temporal drivers for tourism activities: climate, environ- tional water use; however, in the case of Northern Cyprus ment and social factors. The main application of this pro- the rate increases to 4.8% due to incoming tourists [12]. It cess is the mitigation of problems of “seasonality”, as they is anticipated that chronic water shortage will occur in always pose a challenge for the managers of different des- Northern Cyprus and many other island states by the year tinations. 2050. Potential conflicts between residents and tourists

over water consumption are addressed by numerous au-

KEYWORDS: Climate change; GIS; seasonality; Ecological Mod- thors [12, 14-16]. ernization Theory; Northern Cyprus. In the context of climate change scenarios, conflicts

are expected to worsen due to “forecasted impacts of global climate change on the spatial and temporal varia- 1. INTRODUCTION bility of precipitation-particularly as it relates to recharge of surface and groundwater in regions all around the Tourism provides remarkable contributions such as world” [16, p2]. If adequate adaptation policies are not put economic gain, job creation, infrastructure development, into place to mitigate the conflicts, direct consequences on cultural exchange, improvement of the livelihood of local environmental quality, socio-economic wellbeing and sus- communities and funding of conservation projects. On the tainability of the tourist destinations, especially in island other hand, crowding or deterioration of the environment states are to be expected [15, 17]. negatively affect the social acceptance level of the hosts as Tourism has negative environmental impacts on Med- well as the attitude of the tourists and can cause irreversible iterranean islands, which are intensified by the fragility of the environment, human pressure and lack of spatial plan- * Corresponding author ning [18, 19]. Vehbi and Doratli [20] in their assessment of

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environmental impacts of tourism on coastal cities of the leakage and land mismanagement, there is hesitation about northern part of the island witnessed deterioration and re- the pro-poor role of tourism in improving the livelihood duction of green fields, loss of natural landscape, loss of and welfare of residents on the island [21]. Moreover, sea- open space, sea water and air pollution, noise pollution, sonality results in large differences in tourist arrivals and waste and visual pollution. The negative impact of tourism revenues in the winter and the summer seasons in Mediter- development is particularly strong in the coastal region ranean islands [22, 23]. To address this problem, an adap- where soils and water are highly susceptible to erosion and tive management system is needed to cover multifaceted pollution [21]. There is significant evidence of a trend in interactions between humans and the environment with re- environmental degradation in Northern Cyprus, whose spect to political, social, ecological, and geographical char- economy is highly dependent on tourism, especially na- acteristics of the island [18]. In other words, a comprehen- ture-based tourism. Figure 1 highlights an example of lack sive perspective is required to develop the RMS, which in landscape planning and spatio-temporal recreation mis- should involve the opinions and visions of local communi- management in the study area. Approximately 75 % of the ties, planners and decision makers, business sector and sci- island hotels have been built on the northwest shoreline. entists. Therefore, tourism scholars can effectively contrib- Vehbi and Doratli [20] note that natural beauty, historical ute to tourism management through generating knowledge heritage and traditional urban patterns explain why the and sharing innovative ideas. The gap between theory and northwestern cities (e.g. Kyrenia) are leading tourist desti- practice can be reduced by proposing technical approaches nations in the Mediterranean Basin since the 1930s. Fur- that are developed by application of scientific tools (e.g. thermore, Kyrenia possesses a well-developed infrastruc- GIS). ture, easy access to the airport and capital city and access In fact, the qualities of tourism development are highly to the harbor and shipping lines. These attract investment correlated with land management strategies considering the especially in luxury hotels construction. principals of sustainability, conservation, cooperation, learn- The concentration of tourism activities, regardless of ing, appreciation, responsibility and respect for the re- the carrying capacity issue, is associated with excessive ex- sources. To prepare a scientific framework for a RMS, at- ploitation of natural resources, water pollution and water tributes of different resources can be digitized in a GIS set- scarcity, solid and hazardous wastes, erosion and soil deg- ting to produce materials for spatial analysis that provide radation, air pollution and loss in biodiversity. The conse- graphical guidance for policy makers. Turner recommended quences of this improper Recreation Management System this procedure for landscape planning which acted as an in- (RMS) are combined with a complex set of political, social, terface between social and environmental issues [25]. and cultural issues. For example, as a result of economic

FIGURE 1 - Lack of a proper recreation management system in Northern Cyprus (spatial imbalance in tourism development).

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This research focuses on the nexus between tourism RMS as an implementable approach cannot only mitigate and climatology by using GIS to provide RMS guidelines negative environmental and social impacts of tourism by for the island. Notwithstanding the environmental fragility reducing the density of tourism locations, it also contrib- of the study area, the tourism industry is highly dependent utes to sustainability through diversifying tourism prod- on a favorable climate, which can be mapped as a useful ucts/activities, improvement of infrastructure, and poverty factor in tourism planning. There are two bases for the se- alleviation, especially in remote areas [42] where mass lection of climate as a main resource for RMS: Firstly, cli- tourism has not infiltrated yet. mate is an effective factor in RMS that affects human ac- In addition to the RMS’s environmental advantages tivities and the ecosystem [26-29]. Secondly, climate is fre- through creation of spatio-temporal decentralization, RMS’s quently reported as one of the most valuable natural re- social and environmental implications are also in line with sources in tourism development [30, 31] that affects tourist the TEM [10]. Fisher and Freudenburg [10] argued that decision-making in the selection process of a destination TEM becomes functional as a practical interface between so- [24, 32]. Furthermore, climate does not solely contribute to cial (i.e. cooperation of decision-makers and stakeholders), the suitability of resorts but it also significantly influences and environmental (i.e. RMS as spatio-temporal climate their supplementary natural resources, which can be con- data/map). Correspondingly, Burns [43] proposed TEM as a sidered unique tourist assets as well [33]. model for addressing ecological problems in “tourism mas- Mapping climate changes (using spatio-temporal analy- ter-planning” to justify how ecological problems should be sis) raises awareness of tourists and helps stakeholders to integrated into democratic politics. Belle and Bramwell [44] properly plan tourism development and management [34] by employed TEM to examine tourism managers’ and policy- providing a realistic image of the destination’s weather for makers’ perspectives on climate change in a small island. tourists [35-37]. Incorporation of the RMS in tourism holi- Since there is a comprehensive consensus among research- day package and advertisements will also have implications ers [e.g., 23, 45, 46] about the key role of climate in tour- for tourism marketers. Therefore, tourism planners and the ism, climate data can be a useful tool for tourism manage- business sector need to take notice “as tourists are becoming ment in the context of TEM. more educated and increasingly sophisticated in their consumption patterns; and they demand better quality tourism 1.1 Contribution to the current knowledge base products and experiences. [Therefore], travel and tourism This study contributes to tourism climate literature in firms will need to respond with creative marketing strategies several ways: Firstly, there is a paucity of empirical re- based on better quality products and more informative and search on the application of TEM in the tourism climate trustworthy advertising messages” [38, p 87]. nexus [47]. This study fills this gap by developing a model In addition to the advantage of a favorable climate in that functions in the context of TEM on the basis of a land the selection of a tourist destination, it also positively management system performed to integrate socio-ecologi- boosts tourists’ loyalty to revisit a place [30]. Empirical ev- cal issues (tourism and climate) and technology (GIS). The idence from Scandinavia revealed that the relationship be- aim is to mitigate environmental pressures through the spa- tween tourist’s perception and his/her intention to return tio-temporal distribution of tourism activities. Furthermore, was influenced by lack of access to clear information re- it opens a new venue for researchers to share knowledge and garding the weather [36]. Therefore, a tourism climate map cooperation, which are pivotal elements in TEM. In Gid- that illustrates the temporal and spatial variability of the dens’ words, “Ecological modernization implies a partner- climate-related well-being for tourists is one approach that ship in which governments, businesses, moderate environ- can mitigate the probable gap between tourist expectation mentalists, and scientists cooperate in the restructuring of and actual experience. Using the same method, Wan et al., the capitalist political economy along more environmentally linked the spatial variation of water quality and land man- defensible lines” [48, p. 57]. Giddens [48] reference to agement [39]. Hence, a tourism climate map will assist ‘moderate environmentalists’ was meant to be a reference planners and decision-makers to design RMS that not only to proponents of TEM, who are neither market fundamen- controls tourist access to vulnerable natural areas, but also talists (i.e., who believe nature has restorative properties addresses the seasonality of tourist activities. This will also that go well beyond any impact human beings might have facilitates the equitable distribution of tourism expenditure on the environment), nor radical ecologists (i.e. whose ide- throughout the island by dispersing tourists to for instance, ologies are deployed in pursuit of ‘de-industrialization and the hinterland and away from coastal zones which are un- de-marketing) [49]. In a way, the moderate environmental- der stress. Furthermore, it will also decrease local depend- ist attitude, as a proponent of TEM, is a reaction to the anti- ency on the natural resources [40]. modernist views of fundamentalists and radical ecology in Concentration of tourism activities in coastal cities managing the processes of production and consumption (i.e., based on S3 tourism), has led to adverse environmen- without dismantling the market system and opting for mit- tal impacts such as land deterioration due to land use igating environmental impact [49, 50]. change, soil and beach erosion, water scarcity, air, water, Following this, the study is built on Imran et al.’s state- and noise pollutions, degradation of flora and fauna habi- ment [9], who noted that the participation and cooperation tats, and exploitation of fragile natural resources [20, 41]. of stakeholders in the process of tourism development is

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not a straightforward issue. In this respect, Gouldson and [48, 54]. Such a transformation, Giddens noted, is reflected Sullivan revealed that mitigating actions to combat climate by the fact that the “countries most influenced by the idea change can be implemented within the context of TEM of ecological modernization are the cleanest and greenest [51]. In other words, the proposed RMS plan based on spa- of the industrial nations”. In Eder’s [53, p. 210] words, “Its tio-temporal analysis of the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) transformation into a new ideological master frame pro- is an example of stakeholders’ cooperation in the tourism vides the possibility of a way out, legitimating social insti- industry as well as an embodiment of TEM. tutions by means of environment-related ethical frames.” Secondly, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this re- The focus of this study is to propose RMS based on spatio- search is the first to develop a model built on a knowledge- temporal variations of climate for tourism actions on a based management system, proposed by Ackoff [3], in tour- Mediterranean island in the context of TEM. ism climate literature. The proposed model conforms to the TEM has captured the attention of numerous scholars transformation of “data” into “wisdom” in tourism manage- around the world. More so in Western Europe (i.e., Ger- ment. In other words, meteorological data are used to create many, the Netherlands, the UK, Denmark, and Sweden), the information (TCI value), followed by the production of tour- United States and more recently in newly industrialized ism climate maps through spatial analysis in GIS software. countries such as Malaysia and Thailand where the concept A synthesis of the spatial patterns of TCI over 12 months has been molded into an epistemological/paradigmatic (temporal analysis) contributes to proposing a guideline for framework [54, 55]. Anyhow, “Joseph Huber (from Ger- RMS based on climate attractiveness and other considera- many) should be acknowledged as the father of ecological tions. This guideline is the RMS schedule/calendar. Ac- modernization theory due to his theoretical contributions to cordingly, planners and decision-makers will have access the environment and society from the 1980s onward” [56, p. to sufficient knowledge to manage tourism activities wisely 2]. in regions where climate is one of the most important tour- TEM has also been applied to justify the shifting of in- ism resources. stitutional structures for solid waste management and im- Thirdly, the results of this study will offer useful ap- proving its system in Malaysia [57] and/or reforming the plications for tackling seasonality issues of tourism in planning system in Australia's island-state [58]. Neverthe- Mediterranean regions including innovative tourism mar- less, the paradigmatic structure of TEM is rooted in a process keting by raising tourist awareness, restructuring spatial of production and consumption (i.e., the decoupling or de- and temporal patterns of tourism activities, reducing envi- linking of material flows from economic flows) and institu- ronmental degradation and achieving equitable income dis- tional transformation, especially in the public sphere [53, tribution. This model has the appropriate flexibility to con- 59]. The crux of the theory was initially established when: sider adaptive strategies against climate change. The social dynamics behind these changes that are the Finally, climate is the most important tourism resource emergence of actual environment-induced transformations in Northern Cyprus, which attracts thousands of tourists of institutions and social practices in industrialized socie- from European countries. Surprisingly, no empirical re- ties are encapsulated in the ecological modernization the- search has been conducted on the spatio-temporal variations ory. This theory tries to understand, interpret and concep- of tourism climate on this Mediterranean island. Changes of tualize the nature, extent and dynamics of this transfor- TCI are mapped in Europe by Perch-Nielsen et al. [52] as mation process [59, p. 93]. part of PESETA (Projection of Economic impacts of climate In the case of Northern Cyprus, TEM has not yet been change in Sectors of the European Union based on boT- recognized as a policy framework due to lack of commit- tom-up Analysis). However since the accuracy of the index ment and political will towards establishing political infra- at the continental scale is far too low, only one value is rec- structures essential for the implementation of a TEM orded and projected for the whole island. This means that agenda. One of the pillars of TEM is close cooperation and the TCI map cannot reflect any pattern of variation of cli- consensus among numerous stakeholders [60], especially mate tourism across the island. the involvement of knowledge-based institutions for the purpose of innovation. This aspect of TEM requires struc- tural changes in institutions and social practices [59], 2. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND which is still absent in Northern Cyprus. TEM is highly conducive to integrating new tourism policy towards adap- 2.1. Theory of Ecological Modernization (TEM) tation to climate change. As a backdrop to this study, TEM is initiated as a dis- The main purpose of this research is to provide a cli- course in response to ecological problems. This is because mate-based Recreation Management System (RMS) based sustainable development, notwithstanding its grand goals, on TEM. This objective is the implementation of RMS is perceived as vague and difficult to operationalize [53]. (Figure 2) based on knowledge generation and knowledge However, this is not meant to undermine the credibility of sharing by scientists (i.e. transforming meteorological data the sustainable development paradigm. In fact, it has been to a RMS calendar) embedded in the contribution of all a major force in the transformation of environmentalism stakeholders (action plan in the context of tourism master into the ecological discourse resulting in the birth of TEM plan) in accordance with the concept of TEM.

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Thus, RMS is a loud call to planners and politicians who prus accommodating over 40,000 international students have promoted 3S (Sea, Sand and Sun) tourism solely for (http://www.studyinnorthcyprus.org/?page_id=3652). short term economic benefits without putting any meas- Tourism remains a crucial source of GDP as well as ure/policy in place towards protection of coastal zones and the main source of job creation. The tourism sector em- reduction of environmental impacts in Northern Cyprus [20]. ployed over 12,000 people in the year 2013. The ratio of net tourism income to the trade balance is 39% and the net 2.2. Tourism Climate Index income from tourism reached 616 million $US in the year Two main approaches for the estimation of climate fa- 2013. The number of arrivals reached 1,366.077 in the year vorability for tourism activities are firstly, expert-based in- 2014. In comparison to 30 and 10 years ago, tourist arrivals dices related to the TCI proposed by Mieczkowski [32] and n increased by 2815% and 94%, respectively [68]. The secondly, user-based indices with relation to the Climate main markets for Northern Cyprus’s tourism are: Turkey, Index for Tourism (CIT) developed by De Freitas et al. the UK, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Syria, Iran and [61]. Furthermore, the Beach-Users Climate Index, pro- Poland. posed by Morgan et al. [62] is based on tourist response. In Regardless of historical, cultural, and growth of edu- the context of the TCI, Mieczkowski weighted five mete- cational tourism in recent years, 3S tourism is still the dom- orological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, pre- inant attraction over the whole island, more so in Northern cipitation, wind speed, and sunshine hours) to estimate a Cyprus (i.e., main destination for coastal tourism in the categorical tourism climate index ranging from unfavora- Mediterranean) [69]. Nevertheless, determinants of 3S ble (-20) to excellent (100) [32]. tourism, also known as ‘beach’ or ‘coastal’ tourism has its The TCI has several drawbacks, such as ignoring non- own complexity including the ‘climate’ variable. In the thermal aspects of weather and climate [63], overriding the meantime, demand for 3S tourism differs according to the effect of precipitation and wind [61] and the lack of empir- type of tourists (i.e. international or domestic). ical validation due to its expert-based approach [52]. Nev- For the case of Northern Cyprus, both domestic and ertheless, it has been frequently employed to estimate cli- international tourists have different expectations from so- mate favorability for tourism activities and to investigate called coastal tourism. Such expectations are highly rele- climate change [23, 45, 52, 64]. Georgopoulou et al. used vant to the climate/ tourism nexus. With the perspectives the TCI to calculate the physical risks of climate change in of climate change and changing relations between climate the banking sector (with the hospitality industry regarded and tourism demand, it is generally agreed that climate as a subsector). They also used the TCI as an indicator of change will affect tourist behavior spatially by shifting it to attractiveness for tourists to change their location in a re- higher altitudes and latitudes [69, 70]. This will have seri- gression model that considered other non-meteorological ous implications for destination such as Northern Cyprus parameters (e.g., infrastructure and economic growth) [65]. which is highly dependent on coastal tourism. Further- more, attributes of coastal tourism have various function- 2.3. Study area alities depending on climate, environment, biodiversity, as Northern Cyprus was an active tourism destination well as susceptibility to anthropogenic pressures [70, 71]. long before the explosion of mass tourism in the 1960s In the case of a Mediterranean Island State, anthropogenic [66]. However, in the aftermath of the Turkish intervention pressure, which is manifested in coastal development and in 1974, the tourism trajectory took a dramatic twist as the cultural activities, demands specific policies/strategies for island was partitioned into the Turkish and Greek enclaves. coastal protection. Nevertheless, both sides are blessed by a suitable climate It is in this context that environmental degradation is that generates calm seas and stable beaches. Long and dry most probable as the pressure of tourism impact is concen- summers with a concentration of precipitation over a few trated on the coastal regions away from the hinterland. months during the mild winter renders perfect conditions Such pressure has been noticed by tourism planners in for so- called 3S tourism [67]. southern Cyprus, which resulted in a moratorium on new Geçitkale and Nicosia are two populated cities inland tourism projects in coastal areas and a shift to the hinter- that are not considered part of the coastal zones (See also land through incentives for rural tourism [72, 73]. Katir- Figure 1). The land use that dominates the island is dense cioglu et al. [73, p. 638] explored the idea that “tourist ar- to sparse forest, sparse forest and brush, cultivated and gar- rivals are a catalyst for energy consumption and therefore den crops and irrigated fields. The main agricultural and climate change in the long term of the Cyprus economy. horticultural productions on the island are wheat, barley, When the Cypriot government sets measurements for envi- vegetable, olive and citrus fruits. Northern Cyprus’s econ- ronmental protection (controlling climate changes), the in- omy is composed mainly of small and medium-size enter- ternational tourism sector should be seriously taken into prises (SMEs) in the tourism and agricultural sector. How- consideration”. ever, over the last two decades policy makers have focused The issue of rural tourism, agro-tourism, and ecotour- on making this part of the island a university hub and re- ism are raised in the context of sustainable tourism which freshing attention to restructuring the tourism sector. Pres- is a dominant concept and concern for the relationship be- ently, there are more than 10 universities in Northern Cy- tween tourism and environment. These forms of tourism

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FIGURE 2 - Climate-based Recreation Management System (RMS).

are categorized under the so called ‘alternative’ tour- and politically. In the case of Northern Cyprus, ecotourism ism as opposed to mainstream/mass tourism criticized for projects have been established in different rural areas and being inconsiderate environmentally, socially, ethically remote villages.

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These projects can be restructured in order to allow illustrates how climate as a unique, free, and non- substi- collective participation of all stakeholders from local pub- tutable resource, can be used in tourism planning (Figure lic sector institutions, business, the commercial sector, 2). It also means that the RMS calendar is a technical as- non-profit organizations and ecotourism entities. Applica- sessment that can be a guideline for the preparation of a tion of these projects will be effective if a collective ap- tourism master plan. In other words, comprehensive tech- proach is practiced. However the effectiveness of manage- nical assessment including evaluation results of socio-eco- ment and stakeholder participation is undermined when nomic, hydrologic, watershed management and geomor- there is either a lack of collective approach or dominant phology should be incorporated in the master planning pro- centralized decision-making. This is not just the case for cess. Hence, outputs of other assessments (e.g. information Northern Cyprus but unfortunately also for most develop- regarding water scarcity, land degradation and soil erosion) ing economies. As Larson and Poudyal [74, p. 924] stated: have been used as inputs/feedbacks for monitoring and “A heavy emphasis on centralized decision-making orches- evaluation steps in the model. Thus, monitoring and evalu- trated by powerful government elites, not governance that ation ensures proposed flexibility in approach. involves a full range of invested individuals and organiza- The application of a knowledge-based management tions, has been a major constraint for developing countries system is an important part of the methodological ap- trying to promote community participation in the tourism proach. According to Ackoff [3] and Reed et al. [75], mak- industry”. ing the right decision in a complex system (e.g. destination management), allows planners/decision makers to use knowledge instead of raw data (Figure 2). As mentioned 3. METHODOLOGY earlier, the proposed model can be implemented in the context of TEM [51], which emphasizes knowledge generation 3.1. A descriptive and analytical approach and sharing [6], as well as the cooperation of decision-mak- The research model (Figure 2), illustrates RMS devel- ers and stakeholders [9]. There is a consensus among pro- opment and operationalization processes based on the well- ponents of TEM that researchers are required to produce being of tourism climate – climate being the most im- knowledge and share it with stakeholders [6, 75]. Further- portant tourism resource on the island. Two approaches, more, there is some evidence that postulates the application namely, a knowledge-based management system and the of TEM in the integration of climate change and develop- TEM, are utilized as theoretical framework for designing ment criteria under similar circumstances [51, 57, 58]. Ac- the model. The model also depicts the process of develop- cordingly, meteorological data are inserted into the TCI ment and application of RMS in tourism planning by a flow equation to calculate TCI values for each meteorological chart that begins with calculation and ends with action/im- station (Table 1). Then, TCI values are digitized in a GIS plementation. This process is embedded in the context of setting using Arc GIS software. Spatial analysis of TCI is data calculation and production of wisdom. Both flow pro- performed using geo-statistical techniques to create a TCI cesses correspond to each other, as shown in Figure 2. map. The utility of the TCI value and TCI map with the final An interpolation technique which encompasses meas- production of the RMS calendar, are paramount to the de- ured TCI values is weighted to derive a predicted value for sign of RMS and a tourism master plan. In fact, this model an unmeasured location on the island. Weights are based

TABLE 1 - Location and meteorological parameters of the stations

Meteorological station Geographical location* A (m) Meteorological parameters X Y AT MAT ARH MARH P AWS SH Kyrenia 35.3339 35.3339 170 20.2 24.1 69.2 54.3 470.5 8.1 2.5 Nicosia 35.1948 35.1948 256 19.2 26.3 61.3 35.0 305.8 8.7 3.4 Ercan 35.1506 35.1506 182 19.2 26.3 61.3 35.0 305.8 8.7 3.4 Geçitkale 35.2507 35.2507 97 19.4 26.1 64.2 39.3 328.4 2.7 3.4 Famagusta 35.1332 35.1332 137 19.7 24.9 70.9 50.8 330.2 8.2 2.9 Yeni Erenkoy 35.5164 35.5164 55 19.6 23.8 68.2 50.0 460.5 3.1 2.9 Guzelyurt 35.1833 35.1834 162 20.2 24.1 69.2 54.3 470.5 8.1 2.5 Çamlibel 35.3001 35.3001 138 18.1 22.8 69.2 48.8 443.4 1.4 2.5 Tatlisu 35.3835 35.3835 164 20.0 24.9 68.8 52.1 456.6 6.3 2.7 Lefke 35.1001 35.1001 347 19.5 23.2 69.4 51.3 466.9 8.4 2.6 Note: *: The unit is decimal degrees. Coordinate system for the data source is WGS 1984. A is altitude, AT is average temperature (°C), MAT is maximum average temperature (°C), ARH is average relative humidity (%), MARH is minimum average relative humidity (%), P is precipitation (mm), AWS is average wind speed (m/s), and SH is Sunshine hours. These numbers were obtained by calculation of parameters average for a period of 33 years (1980-2013).

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on the distance between the meteorological stations, the tails continuous monitoring of climate change and patterns prediction locations, and the overall spatial arrangement of tourists who visit the destination. Since the input to the among the measured points. Arc GIS software provides system is meteorological data, the model ought to recalcu- geo-statistical tools to create surfaces from sample data late new data in order to design accurate recreation man- (TCI value of stations) using interpolation methods such as agement calendar. The proposed model covers cross-cul- inverse weighted distance, radial-based functions, global tural properties of tourism climate by monitoring the quan- and local polynomials, kriging, co-kriging, and isotropical tity and cultural origin of visitors. For instance, an optimal or anisotropical models. Kriging is known as the best linear climate is perceived differently by Russian compared to unbiased estimator amongst all interpolation methods. It is Chinese tourists. As observed by the authors, the swim- also a popular geostatistical method in the interpolation of ming season for Russian tourists in Northern Cyprus al- natural elements [76]. It provides an easy method for char- ready begins in March whereas the locals will wait until acterizing the variance or the precision of predictions. This early July. Therefore, the RMS should be modified accord- method uses variograms to express the spatial variation and ing to changes in visitor pattern (geographic segment) [83] minimizes the error of predicted values which are esti- to avoid mismatch between the expectation and experience mated by spatial distribution of the predicted TCI values. of a destination with respect to climate change. As noted by Olya and Alipour [77] the Kriging technique Nevertheless, the use of long term data ensures reliabil- functions adequately for the interpolation of tourism cli- ity of the results of the proposed model. Three factors can be mate risk caused by excessive precipitation as a destructive considered in the recalculation of the proposed model: factor related to the well-being of tourists. Therefore it is firstly, changing climatic parameters, secondly changing applied as geostatistical technique for the interpolation of tourist pattern in terms of cross-cultural characteristics and TCI value in this study. The process of TCI calculation and thirdly, as elaborated earlier, the implementation of a RMS interpolation are conducted for 12 months (January to De- as an important principle for the Tourism Master Plan. Since cember). Hence, a temporal analysis of TCI is produced Master Plans are normally revised only every five years, it is based on the interpretation of monthly TCI maps. suggested that the TCI should be recalculated for all stations As climate is one of the most important resources for and the RMS calendar be prepared every five years consid- tourism development on the island a RMS pattern based on ering all changes in parameters. spatio-temporal variations of TCI is developed. Notwith- More details about data and the procedure are elabo- standing the existence of sophisticated approaches such as rated in the following sections. the Recreational Opportunity Spectrum [78] and Limits of Acceptable Change [79] the proposed model has great po- 3.2. Data collection and analysis tential to be used in regions where climate is the major Data was collected from the meteorological stations of tourism resource. Northern Cyprus in the Mediterranean, covering a data Based on the results, the five practical managerial im- base from 1980 to 2013. The data was obtained after a plications are as follows: lengthy discussion with the head of the meteorological or-  Overcoming the seasonality problem ganization in Lefkosa, the capital city of Northern Cyprus.  Equity in distribution of the economic benefits Permission to use the data was granted after the purpose of the research was explained. Northern Cyprus is located in  Reduction of pressure on the ecosystems the Eastern flank of the Mediterranean Sea, whose climatic  Proposing an adaptive approach to climate change characteristics include warm and dry summers, mild win-  Tourism marketing ters, more than 3,300 hours of annual sunshine and light-to- moderate winds. Such climatic characteristics create typical The aforementioned process is in line with Wong et al. 3S tourism that attracts a large number of tourists. Sun, Sea who emphasize the importance of evaluating the policy en- and Sand (3S) tourism is the main product that motivates vironment for climate change adaptation in tourism, as well mass tourism. In this context tourists seek a warm climate to as continuous monitoring imbedded in the proposed model indulge in sun tanning on sizzling beaches [84, 85]. This [80]. For evaluation and monitoring of adaptive coastal form of tourism has been dominant since the 1950s and management Jacobson et al. [81, p. 51] stated that ‘moni- 1960s with strong seasonal concentration, environmental de- toring involves activities that measure the effectiveness of struction and unsustainable development along the coastal actions, whereas evaluating involves the interpretation of areas of the Mediterranean but also in the Adriatic, Aegean, that information’. Caribbean, and many islands in the Pacific, to name a few Furthermore, updating the outputs of the model with [86, 87]. Now-a-days, with the support of its international new meteorological datasets enables destination communi- institutional agencies the tourism industry has embraced a ties to better adapt to forthcoming climate change. At the moral agenda to redirect tourism planners and developers same time this is a practical approach for moving the tour- towards a so called ‘New tourism’ as an alternative to 3S ism-and-climate-change nexus from a descriptive problem- tourism (mass tourism). “Whereas Mass Tourism might be based issue toward a more affirmative, action-oriented dis- characterized by sameness, crudeness, destructiveness, and course [82]. The functionality of the proposed model en- modernity, New Moral Tourism can be viewed as difference

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and sensitivity as well as constructive and critical of moder- with the TEM theory (Figure 2). With this regard, GIS is nity. There are several categories of travel that might be de- used as an integration technology to project spatial and scribed as New Moral Tourism, including ecotourism, com- temporal variations of TCI [1]. Kriging is used as a popular munity tourism, agro-tourism, and sustainable tourism” geostatistical method in the interpolation of natural ele- [as cited in 85]. ments [76, 77]. A spatial analysis of TCI is performed for 3S tourism is also subject coastal areas to overdevel- each month to enable temporal analysis of the variations of opment. Though economically lucrative in the short run the TCI on the island. About 12 TCI maps illustrate the some destinations, especially Mediterranean islands have temporal and spatial attractiveness/appropriateness of cli- realized that the long-term viability of this dominant mode mate for tourism (i.e. by month and location) (Figure 3). of tourism has engendered a malaise in the tourism system. Based on this rational justification, the proposed RMS cal- For instance, in Northern Cyprus, mass tourism has not endar can be applied as a scientific guideline in destination only resulted in degradation of the coastal environment, it planning and management. has also subjected the island to a seasonality syndrome. “Hence, the image of Cyprus as a sun-lust destination can be deemed a critical cause of seasonality. This is also true 4. RESULTS about Malta, which is struggling with extreme seasonality” [87, p. 704-711]. TCI values varied ranging from 41 (acceptable) in Yeni Erenkoy to 98 (excellent) in Çamlibel and Kyrenia. Yeni 3.1.1. Tourism climate index Erenkoy is a flat shoreline characterized by dense to sparse forest. Land use mainly consists of bush which is also the The TCI index is formulated based on the monthly habitat of famous Cyprus donkey. Çamlibel has a special to- means of seven meteorological factors: maximum daily pography that varies from coastal (altitude=0 m) to moun- temperature, mean daily temperature, minimum daily rela- tainous (altitude >1000 m). Similar to the Yeni Erenkoy and tive humidity, daily relative humidity, precipitation, daily Karpaz region, this area is also covered with dense to sparse duration of sunshine, and wind speed. To measure thermal forest and bush. This area also has cultivated fields and gar- comfort, Mieczkowski developed two sub-indices named den crops. Kyrenia and Çamlibel have similar topograph- CID (Daytime Comfort Index – which combines the varia- ical and geomorphological conditions. Apart from forest bles of maximum daily temperature and minimum daily and cultivated fields and garden crops, irrigated farms are relative humidity) and CIA (Daily Comfort Index – which also a dominant land use. The average TCI values for 12- combines the variables of mean daily temperature and daily months ranges from 70 (very good) in Nicosia to 85 (ex- relative humidity) [32]. Accordingly, coefficients of each cellent) in Kyrenia, except for Yeni Erenkoy which is 56. variable were weighted, and the formula (1) was used as an Other districts have “very good” (70-80) climate condi- index to estimate the level of climatic well-being for tour- tions for tourism activities. During spring and fall, higher ists: TCI scores are found throughout the island. Similar find- 82442 (1) ings are reported in Amelung and Viner’s [23], Deniz’s [45], and Perch-Nielsen et al.’s [52] studies, which re- Where CID and CIA are two sub-indices represented vealed that variations in average TCI scores present a bi- as a daytime comfort index; R is precipitation; S is hours modal distribution in the Mediterranean regions. This means of sunshine per day; and W is wind speed. The details of that climate in the spring and fall is more suitable for the the variable rating system for the calculation of the TCI are well-being of tourists than that in the winter and summer. described in Mieczkowski’s paper [32]. The TCI scores clas- Researchers have recognized that increasing temperatures sified in five mapping categories are outlined in Table 2. caused by climate change will result in a decreased climate

TABLE 2 - A classification scheme for mapping the TCI quality in the Mediterranean during the summer. Perch- Nielsen et al. [52] in their comparison of climate change No. Numerical value of TCI Mapping Category for a period of 110 years found that the number of acceptable (TCI>40), good (TCI>60), and excellent (TCI>80) 1 80-100 Excellent days in summer for Mediterranean region will decrease by 2 70-79 Very good 7, 10, and 8 days, respectively. 3 60-69 Good 4.1. Tourism climate index map 4 40-59 Acceptable According to the calculated TCI score for January (Fig- 5 -20-39 Unfavorable ure 3a), the climate is good (60-70) for tourism. The climates Source: [23]. of Nicosia, Lefke and Guzelyurt are more favourable (68, 65, and 64, respectively) for tourists during this month (see 3.1.2. Recreation management system Table 2 for score classification). In Çamlibel the TCI scores In the knowledge-based management system developed remain acceptable (59) (Figure 3b). In February Nicosia has by Ackoff [3], techniques and technology help to transform a very good index (72). Eastern and south-western areas data into information and knowledge, which is consistent have good climates for tourist’ well-being. During the month

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of March, a “very good” climate (70-80) prevails over the The diversity of climate well-being for leisure in- whole island (Figure 3c). However, the climate is more suit- creases in July when the TCI score fluctuates between 53 able in the eastern parts of the island. (acceptable) in Nicosia to 80 (excellent) in Çamlibel (Fig- During the winter there are no excellent climate scores ure 3g). Famagusta (70), Guzelyurt (69), have “good” cli- (80-100) on the island, with the exception of Geçitkale in mates in June, while Lefke (77), Yeni Erenkoy (78) and March. Geçitkale is a flat inland area (altitude= 100-300 Kyrenia (74) have “very good” climates. Variations of TCI m) that is mainly covered by irrigated and dryland farms. scores in August are similar to July, demonstrating “acceptable” and “good” conditions in the central, south eastern The TCI values improve to an excellent category in and south-western areas. Meanwhile, Çamlibel (80) and April and May (Figure 3d and 3e), with the exception of Yeni Erenkoy (68) are climatically “very good” for tourists Çamlibel in April (73). The TCI reaches the highest score (Figure 3h). In the last month of summer, all areas have a (≥90) in Yeni Erenkoy and Çamlibel in May (Figure 3e). TCI rating below 75 except for Çamlibel (80) and Geçitkale The TCI scores drop from “excellent” to “very good” (75). In September, Çamlibel and Geçitkale have “excellent” during the first two months of spring due to increasing tem- and “very good” climates, respectively (Figure 3i). perature. However, Çamlibel has an excellent (84) climate for recreation purposes in June (Figure 3f).

FIGURE 3 - Map of spatio-temporal variations of the tourism climate index over the 12 months of the year in Northern Cyprus (a-m)

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Compared to the summer, TCI values are high across Tourism businesses can arrange exhibitions, festivals and most of the island in the fall. The TCI values for Çamlibel, events to accompany the other functions of the capital city Lefke, Yeni Erenkoy, and Geçitkale are greater than 85, (e.g. trade, politics). Coincidentally, Nicosia has a “very which represent an “excellent” climate in October (Figure good” to “excellent” climate for tourism during this period 3k). Lefke is a coastal area with irrigated and cultivated (Figure 4). An International theatre festival and similar social fields and garden crops including wheat, vegetables, pota- events are held in Nicosia in September. These events could toes, and citrus fruits. In November, the central regions pre- be shifted to October when the climate is “excellent” (81). sent excellent (>80) climates for tourism activities. Never- Geçitkale is a destination with an excellent climate in theless, other regions still have “very good” climates dur- February, March, April, September, and November. It has ing this month (Figure 3l). It can be clearly seen that the a remarkable potential for the development of rural tour- tourism climates in Famagusta (81) and Nicosia (80) are ism, agro-tourism, ecotourism, and other types of alterna- excellent in December (Figure 3m). Famagusta is a coastal tive tourism. For instance, the Hellim festival is a well- area with a low altitude (<200 m) composed of irrigated known food festival that is organized in Geçitkale in April. farms and garden crops. Nicosia is an inland area whose Tourist flow to Yeni Erenkoy and Karpaz where the sandy altitude varies between 100 to 300 m with a dominant land beaches and panoramic views are abundant could be en- use of cultivation of agriculture and garden products. couraged during the months of March, May, July and Au- gust. The Karpaz region is also home to the flower festivals 4.2. Recreation management system calendar (e.g. Medoş and Lale Festivalsi) and presentation of local Results of the spatio-temporal pattern of TCI reveal handicrafts in March. that there are viable opportunities to reorganize tourism ac- Iskle can be visited by tourists in August and Septem- tivities in the northwest part of the island, where two-thirds ber when regional and national food festivals (e.g. Yeni of the hotels are located (Figure 1). A Pearson correlation Boğaziçi Pulya Festivali) are held to revive the local food test (an inferential statistical analysis) was performed to in- culture. Birdwatching is also popular in Iskele during the vestigate the correlation between number of the hotels and months of March and April. favorability level of the climate for tourism activities. Ac- cording to the statistical results, the number of hotels does Kyrenia attracts tourists who enjoy the pleasant not correlate significantly to the level of TCI (r=-262, weather, social events, historical attractions, and trekking P>.05). Such results confirm that climate is ignored in rec- during the months of March, April, June, and July. Kyrenia reation management despite it being the most important is also home to Alagadi Beach where the unique kinds of tourism resource in the study area. Hamilton et al. [46], turtles (green and the loggerhead turtles) have their nesting Amelung and Viner [23], and Saarinen [31], observed that grounds. This is an attraction for nature lovers during the climate as a key determinant of tourist demand, especially months of June and July. Kyrenia is also venue for a social in the Mediterranean islands, can be considered just as im- event called Lepta Orchid, which takes place during the portant a factor in spatial and temporal tourism planning. month of March, and home to several museums as well as Besides the importance of the climate factor for tourists, an ancient shipwreck. the need to propose adaptive strategies for climate change Famagusta is a coastal city and home to a major uni- and seasonality issues provides a rational incentive to re- versity. Over time it has suffered anthropogenic pressure distribute tourism activities (through RMS) based on the due to overdevelopment and poor infrastructural amenities. favorability of climate in terms of spatial and temporal It has access to several beaches that are crowded by domes- changes. This logic is supported by Ma et al. [26] and Li et tic and international tourists between April and October. It al. [27], who draw attention to the inevitable role of climate is also a venue for numerous social events e.g. Children’s in RMS. Hence, based on spatio-temporal changes in the festival, Sand sculpting, musicals and spring festivals or- TCI, the RMS calendar is developed to determine the loca- ganized by the municipality and university. tion and duration of tourism activities on the island (Figure 4). However, environmental and social concerns/potentials Çamlibel is a mountainous landscape that provides a must be considered within the development procedure of favorable climate during the hot season (May to October) the RMS calendar with respect to the principles of TEM. as shown in Figure 4. Apart from its climate well-being For example, based on the spatio-temporal patterns of TCI, benefits, it hosts an exhibition in June which provides an January and December are suitable months in Guzelyurt opportunity for local people to sell their organic products and Lefke while simultaneously coincide with the citrus as well as handicrafts. It is also venue for strawberry festi- fruit harvesting season. Such coincidences enhance and in- val during the harvest. fluence visitors’ perceptions and experiences. In addition, According to the TCI results, high temperature and rel- the orchid flower festival held in Guzelyurt and Lefke every ative humidity negatively affects the suitability of the cli- February (named Orkide festivali) is another attractivity in mate for tourism activities. Based on climate change sce- this region. Surfing is also a popular activity in the Guzelyurt narios, estimated temperature will rise in the Mediterra- and Lefke coastal area in October due to optimal wind con- nean regions with negative impacts expected on tourist ditions. Nicosia, capital of the island, mainly attracts tourists comfort. Currently, spring and autumn are the most appre- in January, February, November and December (Figure 4). ciated seasons for travel to the island. Nevertheless, it is

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FIGURE 4 - Calendar of tourism activities based on the recreation management system (RMS) in Northern Cyprus.

expected that the favorability of the climate will decline in prevent irreparable effects and carry out spatio-temporal early fall and late spring due to climate change. In contrast, analyses to reduce environmental degradation. As such, the winter could become a suitable future season for tourists. practicality of RMS based on spatial analysis in a GIS set- Furthermore, the period of the 3S tourism will expand due ting was demonstrated by Turner [25] and Wan et al. [39]. to temperature increase in the study area. Thus, climate One should keep in mind that the successful implementa- change might generate new opportunities on the island by tion of such a project relies on the participation of research- attracting tourists in spring instead of summer. ers, decision-makers, stakeholders, and local communities. According to the proposed model, stakeholders have var- Contributions and achievements of the project should meet ious options in terms of time and space to develop and rear- their satisfaction [9, 27]. In other words, a package and ad- range their business. This will also allow decision-makers to vertisement calendar as a part of Master Plan requires the apply knowledge-based approaches to their planning pro- participation of all stakeholders. For instance, an adjust- cesses. Therefore, this model meets the criteria of TEM [7, ment of the date and place of social events/festivals that do 58, 59]. Moreover, this model follows the funneling process not match the results of RMS in terms of climate suitability from “data to wisdom” that was suggested by Ackoff [3]. requires cooperation of local communities and business sectors. Similarly, deconcentration and diffusion of tour- 4.3. Policy implications ism activities from one location to another would require 4.3.1. Reducing environmental degradation the development of certain types of rules to accelerate the The proposed model provides a strategy for tourism process. decision makers to adapt tourism activities to the capacity and tolerance of the resources that are available in Northern 4.3.2. Seasonality and tourism marketing Cyprus. Redistribution of tourism activities based on the The results of seasonal variation of TCI on the island RMS calendar would not only decrease human pressures are depicted in Figure 5. As illustrated, the island has a (social carrying capacity) but also reduce the negative im- “very good” (70-79) to “excellent” (80-100) climate during pact of tourism on the environment. Based on the RMS cal- all seasons. Nevertheless, spring is the best season in terms endar, each area is matched by tourist demand in terms of of favorability of the climate with all stations reporting an climatic attractivity/ favorability. According to Perkins et “excellent” climate (>80) with the exception of Ercan (79). al. [6] and Cantasano and Pellicone [18], planners should In autumn, Nicosia (83), Lefke (80), and Geçıtkale (80) be sensitive to proper recreation management systems to have an “excellent” climate whilst other areas achieve a

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100 Win. Spr. Sum. Aut.

0 Ercan Nicosia Geçıtkale Çamlibel Guzelyurt Tatlisu Famagusta Yeni Lefke Kyrenia Erenkoy Seasonal TCI

FIGURE 5 - Seasonal variation of TCI in the study area

“very good” climate (>70). During the winter, the tourism fusing tourism activities and their benefits temporally and climate in Niocsia (72) and Geçıtkale (70) is “very good”. spatially throughout the island. One should bear in mind Other areas present a “good” climate for tourist activities that the concentration of tourism in Kyrenia is accompa- (>70). Nicosia (57), Guzelyurt (58), and Famagusta (57) nied by luxury hotels and casinos which are prone to for- offer an “acceptable” climate for tourist well-being during eign investment, unsustainable modes of imports as well as the summer. However, other destinations present a “good” leakages [83]. In the context of TEM [48], the proposed climate for tourists (>60). According to these results, there model paves the way for innovative ideas that will not only is no unfavorable climate (<40) in Northern Cyprus and tour- contribute to environmental quality but also benefit remote ists can chose locations with “excellent” and “very good” cli- areas. As described earlier, most of the remote areas have mate during all seasons. As for the findings of Amelung and potentials for alternative forms of tourism without requir- Viner [23], TCI values undergo possible shifts in climatic fa- ing high capital or foreign investment. vorability for various areas during different seasons. The issue here is how the RMS calendar can address the spatial 4.3.4. Adaptive strategy to climate change and temporal distribution of touristic activities throughout In the proposed model, evaluating and monitoring are the island and respective districts. embedded as the key processes that enable the RMS calen- More importantly, advertising and marketing the cli- dar to adapt to climate change. Feeding the model with new matic attractiveness of all the districts during different sea- meteorological datasets will produce updated information sons is a significant attribute for boosting the destination that can be translated into knowledge for policy-makers to image [22]. Implementation of the RMS calendar, which is apply a new strategy to climate change. It will also allow positively linked to tourist loyalty will enable tourism de- monitoring of activities that measure the effectiveness of cision makers to minimize the gap between the expecta- actions [75, 79]. As most of the climate change patterns tions and experiences of tourists [30, 36]. The proposed estimate temperature increase [88], especially in the Med- model, which functions based on variations in the suitabil- iterranean region, TCI will vary in the near future. Hot ity of the climate for tourists, addresses seasonality issues. summer weather in Northern Cyprus will adversely affect This claim matches Ridderstaat et al.’s study [24] who re- the favorability of climate for tourists. Increasing tempera- iterated that seasonality is strongly associated with climate tures will be exacerbated by high relative humidity on the attractiveness. Therefore, the current study tackles this island, thereby decreasing tourist comfort. The situation is problem by proposing the RMS calendar that identifies likely to escalate in inland areas (e.g. Nicosia) where there which district renders the most favorable climate. The re- are no resources for 3S tourism. sult of this study is a practical example of the application This model considers Jacobson et al. [81] and Reed et of TEM in tourism climate literature, which coherent with al.’s [75] advice that it is not adequate to apply only adap- Belle and Bramwell’s study [44]. tive management. Information, monitoring, evaluation and knowledge must also inform future decisions in coastal ar- 4.3.3. Distribution of tourism benefits (social achievement) eas. Similarly, Wong et al. [82] emphasized the importance The concentration of tourism enterprises in Kyrenia re- of monitoring and evaluating steps in adjusting environmen- gion is not necessarily a benefit for the rest of the island. tal policies to climate change adaptation. The multicultural As Eagles [40] and Truong et al. [22] reported, this type of differentiation of tourism climate, which is often overlooked development tends to ignore the pro-poor role of tourism in [61, 89], enhances the practicality of the RMS calendar. In poverty alleviation. This research, by proposing a knowledge- other words, tourists who come from various places express based management system [3], provides a guideline for dif- different perceptions/sensations about climate. Hence, the

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proposed model helps managers to match those sensations communities) to translate the spatio-temporal patterns of with the RMS calendar, which is extracted from the spatio- TCI into practical strategies. Ultimately, this study attempts temporal patterns of the TCI. to strengthen the link between theory and practice by developing the RMS calendar, which is clearer and more un- derstandable for non- experts in this field. 5. CONCLUSION 5.1. Limitations and future research directions This study develops a RMS model based on climatic There are four limitations that can be considered for attractiveness for tourism on the Mediterranean island of future research. Northern Cyprus. The districts that do not have a favorable Firstly, this research proposes a model that is triggered climate are not considered as destinations in RMS calen- by meteorological data. It would be beneficial if data were dar. In contrast, tourism activities are distributed to regions available for the entire island of Cyprus. This study focuses where a more favorable climate exists during a specific pe- on Northern Cyprus. The RMS process needs to examine riod of time. Another functionality of the RMS calendar is the system as a whole by scrutinizing the effective dimen- its consideration of environmental and human pressures in sions of sustainable tourism development pertinent to po- the context of recreational management. Furthermore, tour- litical, socio-cultural, environmental, technological, and ism specific resources (i.e. climate and environment) have economic dimensions. In future studies, it is recommenda- been considered for developing RMS calendar. This ap- ble to apply the proposed model in more sophisticated approach not only reduces negative environmental and social proaches within tourism recreation management, such as impacts that are caused by over-concentration of touristic the Recreational Opportunity Spectrum and the Limits of activities in one location. It also addresses the suitability Acceptable Change. Furthermore, it is worth examining the of numerous locations with a favorable climate for redistri- extent to which these sophisticated approaches are compat- bution of tourists over time and space in view of improved ible with TEM in tourism recreation management. marketing as well as for solving the seasonality problem. Secondly, the RMS calendar was based on a lengthy The proposed approach is supported by the TEM the- data set (1980-2013); however, a comparison of TCI maps ory through generating and sharing knowledge, using tech- derived from two long term scenarios would provide more nology as well as considering the cooperation of policy accurate information for developing the RMS calendar. makers, stakeholders and other contributors. In other Thirdly, from a technical point of view and consonant words, this model integrates environmental concerns with with other studies, the Kriging method was used for the spa- economic benefits by utilizing GIS as an interface between tial analysis of TCI values. However future studies should environmental and social issues. Spatio-temporal patterns identify appropriate geostatistical approaches for the inter- of TCI are considered as the base for proposing the RMS polation of TCI values amongst the meteorological stations. calendar that follows both environmental (i.e. reducing hu- Fourthly, due to the popularity and capabilities of TCI man pressure on the environment, reducing excessive ex- in the projection of tourism climate variations, it is used to ploitation of natural resources and managing biodiversity) perform spatio-temporal analysis in the study area. It is sug- and socio-economic concerns. These objectives can be gested to devise a mechanism in future that is capable of ex- achieved by valorizing different locations, adapting re- tracting and applying tourists’ attitudes about climate condi- sources to demand, innovating marketing strategies based tions. In other words, instead of expert-based indices such as on favorability of the climate, raising tourist awareness, de- TCI, it would perhaps be beneficial to cover demand spec- veloping alternative forms of tourism and avoiding the pro- trum considerations using CIT or fuzzy-based CIT. poor role of tourism by enhancing the livelihood of local communities. Furthermore, assessment of the multicultural characteristics of tourism climate and risk assessment of negative The process of the transformation of data to knowledge climate impacts on tourism activities are two areas of fu- and wisdom is based on a knowledge-based management sys- ture research that could improve the functionality of the tem that recommends decision making built on knowledge in- current model. stead of raw data. In fact, the RMS calendar provides practical knowledge for managers on how to manage recreation ac- The authors have declared no conflict of interest. tivities over time and space. 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