Member Report: ESCAP/WMO Committee 15th Integrated Workshop Working Group on Meteorology (WGM) December 1-2, 2020 Contents

Overview of tropical cyclones which have I. affected/impacted Member’s area in 2020

Meteorological Assessment (highlighting 1. forecasting issues/impacts)

Hydrological Assessment (highlighting water- 2. related issues/impact)

Tropical Cyclone Group (TCG) Adaptation During the II. COVID-19 Pandemic Overview of tropical cyclones which have affected/impacted Member’s area in 2020 1. Meteorological Assessment (highlighting forecasting issues/impacts)

In 2020 we have 21 tropical cyclones entered and developed inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), eight (8) were Tropical Depression, three (3) Tropical Storm (TS), three (3) Severe Tropical Storm (STS), six (6) typhoon and one (1) Super Typhoon. Meteorological Assessment (highlighting forecasting issues/impacts)

From the 21 tropical cyclones shown in Figure 1, eight (8) made landfall and these were Vongfong, Molave, Saudel, and Vamco Super , STS Atsani, TS Nori and TD Ofel. There was an enormous amount of damages and several casualties during the occurrence of Sup Typ Goni, Typhoons Vamco, Vongfong and Molave. Figure 1. Tracks of Tropical cyclones that entered and developed inside the PAR in 2020 1. (2001)(Ambo)

14 May (AM) • it intensified further 13 May at 150 kph with • Due to gust of 180 kph 12 May favorable before making its environmental 1st landfall over • It intensified into a condition, it San Policaprio, Eastern . 10 May TS and was named intensified “Vongfong” into a typhoon • Weakened slightly • Developed (Regional Name) after crossing into TD Dalupiri island, and 09 May Capul island of • Low-Pressure Area (LPA) was formed near Micronesia 1. TYPHOON VONGFONG (2001)(Ambo)

17 May •Weakened into a TD and downgraded 16 May into a LPA later on •Weakened into a STS the same day before making a landfall in Real, . 15 May •Weakened into a TS as it moved towards • Made its 4th and 5th inland of and landfall over Ticao and weakened further after islands of exiting landmass of . 6th landfall Ilocos Sur towards the over San Andres, Quezon West . Impacts: on the same day • Damage (Agri and Infra) - ₱1.57B • Casualties – None, Injured - 169 *NDRRMC Sitrep No.15 2. TS NORI (2002)(Butchoy)

12 Jun •it continues moving inland of 11 Jun •Exited the landmass of •LPA east of Zambales and headed Quezon towards West 9-10 Jun developed into a Philippine Sea (WPS). TD. •Intensified into a TS •It moved west •Made landfall named “Nori” (regional northwestward over Polilio and name) while over West Infanta, Quezon Philippine Sea and on the same day exited PAR in the 08 Jun evening of the same • LPA was day. monitored east Nori brought moderate to heavy rains over of with central and southern Luzon, particularly over a weakly- Zambales defined center. Impacts: • No reported damage and casualties. 3. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) OFEL

16 Oct 15 Oct • exited PAR in the • made 4th landfall in morning San Juan, in the early morning. 14 Oct • Exited the landmass of Batangas and was over • Made landfall in the morning West Philippine Sea in over . the morning of the • Made another landfall in same day Burias island, Masbate at noon on the same day. 13 Oct • Made 3rd landfall in in the evening of • the LPA east of Samar has the same day, then moved developed into a TD in the towards Batangas. afternoon and was named Impacts: “Ofel” (domestic name) then • Deaths - none moved slowly towards Samar • Damage to Agriculture - ₱1.3M 4. TYPHOON LAUDEL (2017) (Pepito)

22 Oct • it intensified into a 21 Oct typhoon as it exited • It exited the landmass of PAR and the final Pangasinan and was over Bulletin was issued. 20 Oct Lingayen Gulf after crossing the rugged terrain of • It intensified into a TS Northern Luzon. and was named • It intensified into a STS over “Laudel”(Regional the West Philippine Sea in the name) as it approaches afternoon of the same day. 19 Oct - area. • Laudel made a landfall in • the LPA 820 km. east of Casiguran, Aurora in the developed evening of the same day Impacts: into a TD named then moved west at 20 • Damage to Agriculture kph. “Pepito”(Domestic and Infrastructure – ₱106M name). It then moved WNW @ 20 kph. • No casualties reported *NDRRMC SitRep No.7 5. (2018)(Quinta)

25 Oct • In the morning, it intensified into a TS as it moved closer to and reached STS intensity in the afternoon of the same day. 23 Oct • In the afternoon, it intensified into a typhoon and made 1st landfall over San • In the afternoon, the LPA east of Miguel island of , in the early has developed into a evening, after passing very close to Tropical Depression (TD), then Catanduanes. moved northwest towards Bicol nd Region. • Made 2 landfall in and Malinao, Albay and 3rd in San Andres, Quezon in the evening of the same day. 5. TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018)(Quinta)

27 Oct • It intensified slightly while over the West Philippine Sea and exited PAR in the morning of 27 October but TCWS #1 was still in effect over Kalayaan islands. The final Bulletin was issued at 11 PM of the 26 Oct same day. • Early morning, it made 4th landfall in Torrijos, Marinduque and Molave was still a typhoon when it made 5th landfall in Pola, Or. also in Impacts: the morning of the same day. • Deaths – 27 • It exited the landmass of Mindoro in the morning of the same day while • Injured - 40, Missing - 4 maintaining its 125 kph intensity • Damage to Agriculture - ₱ 2.6 B with gust of 180 kph. • Damage to Infra: ₱ 1.5 B *NDRRMC SitRep No. 11 6. SUPER TYPHOON GONI (2019) (Rolly)

31 Oct 30 Oct • It began to moved West • It continued to Southwest 29 Oct intensify as it under the moved influence of • It intensified westward. into a Severe the sub 28 Oct Tropical Storm tropical ridge. (STS) • Intensified into a • It undergone rapid 27 Oct Tropical Storm (TS) intensification • Spotted named Goni. and enter PAR as a TD in the near afternoon of Marianas the same day island as a typhoon. 6. SUPER TYPHOON GONI (2019) (Rolly)

01 Nov 02 Nov • it intensified into a Super Typhoon (2AM) with winds of • Goni continues to 225 kph with gust of 285 kph as it made its 1st landfall weaken while moving over Bato, Catanduanes at around 4:50 AM. At 7:20 AM, westward over the STY Goni made its 2nd landfall over Tiwi, Albay and west Philippine sea. It weakened into a Typhoon after the landfall. exited PAR in the • Goni further weakened as it made its 3rd landfall over evening of the same San Narciso, Quezon at 12:00 noon. day. • Further weakened as it made its 4th landfall over Lobo, • Catastrophic violent Batangas at 5:30 PM before it exited the landmass of winds and heavy to Luzon. intense rainfall caused by Rolly were • Goni rapidly weakens into a tropical storm while over the experienced over Bicol vicinity of Batangas. region.

Impacts: • Damage: Agriculture - ₱ 5.8 B, Infrastructure - ₱ 12.8 B • Casualties: Dead – 25, Injured – 399, Missing – 6 *NDRRMC SitRep No. 12 Pressure and Peak Gust Observation During the Passage of Goni

Station Pressure Gust( m/s) km /h

Virac, 912.1 38 137 (82 – 123) Catanduanes (110 kt more (last hourly or less by report before Koba communication conversion) stop) Legaspi City 978.4 55 198 (119 – 163)

Tayabas, Quezon 990.3 23 83 (50 – 67)

Value in parenthesis is the range of peak 10-min sustained winds estimated from the peak gust based on gust factors following WMO Technical Document No. 1555 (Harper et al. 2010) 7. STS ATSANI (2020) (Siony)

02-03 Nov • It remained almost 01 Nov stationary for 48 hours • The initial SWB was issued as it entered the PAR as it intensified slightly. 30 Oct • Atsani moved slowly while making a loop • Atsani was already a over the Philippine storm when we Sea east of northern issued the initial Luzon or 565 km advisory and was east of Basco, estimated at 327 Batanes. kms southwest of . 7. STS ATSANI (2020) (Siony)

07 Nov 06 Nov • It exited PAR in the morning • it changed course in a and the final bulletin was WNW direction toward Batanes issued. 05 Nov and Itbayat area. • Atsani moved • Atsani made almost westward landfall over towards Batanes Misanga island area. in Itbayat, 04 Nov Batanes in the • In the morning of the afternoon, it same day. intensified into a STS Impacts: No Casualty and Damages reported 8. (2022) (ULYSSES)

11 Nov • Vamco was located at 215 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes with sustained 100kph and gust of 125 kph. 09 Nov • It intensified into a typhoon with winds of 125 kph and gust of 155 kph in the late morning of • it intensified into a TS the same day and was located at 100 km North and was named Vamco of Virac, Catanduanes. (Regional name) and was estimated 575 km • In the afternoon of the same day, it intensified at 135 kph with gust of 165 kph as it moved east of Borongan, eastern Samar. towards Quezon Province passing very close to , . 08 Nov • Vamco intensified into a STS in the evening of • It intensified further at 155 kph with gust of • It was spotted as a 205 kph in the late evening and made the 1st LPA 920 km east of the same day while moving WNW at 30 kph. landfall in island of Quezon and Mindanao and before midnight, it made its 2nd landfall in developed into a , Polilio island of Quezon. TD in the evening of the same day. 8. TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) (ULYSSES)

13 Nov • It weakened into a Severe Tropical Storm before exiting PAR.

12 Nov • it made its 3rd landfall in Gen. Nakar, Quezon then traverse Impacts: Central Luzon Provinces. • Casualties – 73, • It weakened after crossing • Injured – 24, Missing – 10 the landmass but it was still a • Damages: Agriculture - ₱2.8 B, typhoon category at 130 kph Infrastructure - ₱ 5.7 B with gust of 215 kph. *NDRRMC SitRep No. 13 (23 Nov 2020, 8am) Pressure and Peak Gust Observation During the Passage of Vamco

Station Pres m/s km /h Date and Time Observed Daet, Camarines Norte 981.3 42 151 (91-123) 11 November 2:00 PM

Infanta, Quezon 977.0 36 130 (78-106) 11 November 11:00 PM

Baler, Aurora 991.2 34 122 (73-99) 12 November 2:00 AM

NAIA, Pasay City 27 97 (58-79) 11 November 8:00 PM

NAIA, Pasay City 24 86 (52-70) 12 November 2:00 AM

Clark, 986.2 23 83 (50-67) 12 November 5:00 AM

Casiguran, Aurora 22 79 (48-64) 11 November 9:00 PM

Alabat, Quezon 22 79 (48-64) 11 November 11:00 PM

Tayabas, Quezon 20 72 (49-67) 12 November 4:00 AM

Value in parenthesis is the range of peak 10-min sustained winds estimated from the peak gust based on gust factors following WMO Technical Document No. 1555 (Harper et al. 2010) Average Error FT24 - 60.3 km. FT48 - 125.8 km. FT72 – 143.7 km.

The track forecast error was calculated following great circle distance principle (i.e. treating the Earth as a sphere rather than a plane), specifically using the Haversine Formula. 2. Hydrological Assessment (highlighting water-related issues/impact)

• The 8 tropical cyclones that made landfall, caused widespread namely flooding, landslides, uprooting of trees, topple down electrical towers and post, houses were partially and fully destroyed. There were several casualties especially during the passage of Sup Typ Goni, Typhoons Vamco and Vongfong. Hydrological Assessment (highlighting water-related issues/impact)

• PAGASA issued Flood Bulletins for the telemetered River Basins and Flood Advisories for Non-Telemetered River Basins in Luzon and some regions in Visayas and Mindanao during the passage of these tropical cyclones. Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/typhoon-goni-philippines-rolly-damage/2020/11/02/6bab44ba-1cc7-11eb-ad53-4c1fda49907d_story.html a b

c d

Figure 2. Flooding incidents and damages to properties in brough about by Typhoon Vamco in (a, b, c) City (d) City. Tumana, Marikina San Mateo, Rizal

Marikina City Valley a b

c d

Figure 3. Flooding incidents and damages to properties due to very strong winds brough about by Super Typhoon Goni in (a) Catanduanes and (b,c,d) Albay. Doppler Radar in Virac, Catanduanes (Radom and Parabolic antenna at the top were blown away) Group (TCG) Adaptation During the COVID-19 Pandemic

• Tropical Cyclone (TC) Forecaster’s are instructed to a Work from Home (WFH) arrangement during Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) period.

• In the event of a TC occurrence, TCG personnel are required to report to the office. They are required to stay at the office until the duration of the TC inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

• Another option is one TCG is WFH and the other is at the office for easily formulation and dissemination of warning. Tropical Cyclone Group (TCG) Adaptation During the COVID-19 Pandemic

• TC Forecasters are required to render 12 hours a day duty (2 TCFs per shift) during the occurrence of TC.

• During General Community Quarantine (GCQ), one personnel from the TCG will report to the office everyday.

• No face to face Press Conference, Press Briefing and Interviews. All are done online using different platforms.

• Pre- Risk Assessment/Analysis meetings by the NDRRMC and other concerned Agency were done online using different platforms. PAGASA REQUEST FOR THE DECOMMISSIONING/RETIRING OF THE FOLLOWING TROPICAL CYCLONES:

1. Typhoon Vongfong (2001) 2. Typhoon Molave (2018) 3. Super Typhoon Goni (2019) 4. Typhoon Vamco (2022)

This is due to the damages incurred of more than 1 Billion Pesos per TC and several casualties during the passage of these TCs in our country. THANK YOU!