The Rise of PLSC 357/EAST 310/GLBL 309

Instructor: Daniel Mattingly Assistant Professor of Political Science Department of Political Science

Email: [email protected]

Office Hours: W 11:30-12:30, T 11:30-12:30, via Zoom Please sign up on calendly.com/Mattingly

Teaching Fellows: Changwook Ju (T 8:20 a.m., Th 9:25 a.m.) Fahd Humayun (T 10:30 a.m., W 10:30 a.m.) Joy Wang (W 2:30 p.m., W 4:00 p.m.) Daniel Hirschel-Burns (Th 1:30 p.m., Th 2:30 p.m.) Denise Looi (Th 10:30 a.m.)

Technology Assistant: Hudson Patterson

China’s rise on the world stage is the most important geopolitical event of this century. What implications does China’s increasing global power have for the rest of the world? How did a relatively poor nation become a prosperous and stable one? Will the Chinese political system remain stable? This course seeks to answer these questions, and serves as a broad introduction to Chinese politics. We will examine topics including elite politics, censorship, protest, technology, trade, military, diplomacy, and foreign policy.

To understand the course of China’s economic and political rise, we begin with a chronological overview of China from the late Imperial era until the present day. Next, we consider the puzzle of how the country’s authoritarian system has remained resilient. Finally, we will examine the consequences of China’s rise for the rest of the world. No knowledge of China or Chinese is assumed.

Course Structure

• Viewing of asynchronous lectures: o Each week I will post 4 pre-recorded mini-lectures. On average each video will be about 15 minute long. • Townhalls on Mondays from 11:35 to 12:15: o Student questions, guided discussion, and live townhalls with notable China watchers. • Section meetings: o One 50 minute section meeting per week led by Teaching Fellows o These will be slightly smaller than usual in-person sections o Students will be required to attend section synchronously

Townhall Guests This list will be updated as additional guests are confirmed.

• September 28: Susan Shirk (Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Chair of the 21st Century China Center, and Professor UC San Diego) • October 5: Jude Blanchette (Freeman China Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies) • October 12: Kaiser Kuo (Host of the Sinica Podcast, former Director for International Communications at Baidu) • October 19: Megha Rajagopalan (World Correspondent, BuzzFeed News) • October 21: Paul Mozur (Technology Correspondent, New York Times) *Please note this is a Wednesday meeting • October 26: Lingling Wei (Senior China Correspondent, Wall Street Journal) and Bob Davis (Senior Editor, Wall Street Journal) and • November 2: Susan Thornton (Former Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Senior Fellow, Tsai China Center) • November 16: Ryan Hass (Armacost Chair at Brookings and Former Director for China at the National Security Council)

Course Requirements The course will include 10 short multiple-choice quizzes taken online, two response papers, a midterm, and a take-home final.

• 15% - Weekly quizzes in section (best 8 of 10 count) • 5% - Lecture participation (includes regular viewing of online lectures and/or town hall participation) • 15% - 1st short paper, on China’s history • 15% - 2nd short paper, on China’s domestic politics • 15% - 3rd short paper, on China’s international politics • 15% - Section participation • 20% - Class final: Crisis simulation exercise

Short quizzes The class will include 10 short multiple choice quizzes administered online during section starting in week 2. Your best 8 quizzes will count. These quizzes will probe your knowledge about important concepts, theories, and facts from lecture and the readings. I will aim to make the quizzes straightforward if you have completed the readings and viewed the mini-lectures.

Short Response Papers Students will write 3 short response papers (3 to 4 pages double-spaced) that provide a critical analysis of 1 (or more) of the readings assigned for the week the assignment is due. Each response paper will cover a different section of the course (history, domestic politics, and international relations). The teaching fellow will coordinate sign-ups for specific weeks. Response papers that are handed in late will be penalized a full letter grade per day, starting at the beginning of the section they are due.

Final: Crisis Simulation For a final assessment, students will participate in a crisis simulation. Before the crisis simulation, each student will be told the basic outline of the crisis (for example, a trade dispute or skirmish in the South China Sea) and assigned a role (for example, the U.S. Department of State or the PLA). Before the simulation, students will write a memo drawing on the class readings across all weeks, as well as independent research as needed.

The simulation itself will last as long as a typical exam, between 2 to 3 hours. Since students will not be on campus and will be in different time zones, there will be more than one option for the time of the simulation. Evaluation will focus on the memo and performance during the simulation, which will be structured in a way to give students approximately equal speaking time. A rubric will be circulated in advance. We may also plan a practice simulation for a section in the weeks near the end of class.

Tutoring The Poorvu Center is offering students in this course the opportunity to receive written feedback on drafts of their writing. To use this service, you will be enrolled in the Canvas course Poorvu Center Asynchronous Tutoring. Submit your draft to the Assignments folder in the course and a writing tutor will add feedback to your paper within 24 hours. If you’d prefer a real-time meeting with a tutor from the Writing Center, you can schedule a session with a Writing Partner or a Residential College Writing Tutor.

Students from and If you will be taking the class while residing in mainland China or Hong Kong, or are a PRC citizen, you should review the course syllabus carefully. Please get in touch to discuss.

Grading Please bring arithmetic errors in grading to our attention immediately. Otherwise, grades are final and will not be regraded.

Late Assignments Dean’s excuses are required for any response paper extension.

Academic Honesty Academic dishonesty of any kind is a serious offense. Students who plagiarize will automatically be reported to the Yale College Executive Committee and will receive a grade of zero for the assignment. A second offense will also be reported to the Executive Committee and will automatically result in a grade of F for the course. Please take note of the following from the Yale Center for Teaching and Learning: “You must document all of your source material. If you take any text from somebody else, you must make it clear the text is being quoted and where the text comes from. You must also cite any sources from which you obtain numbers, ideas, or other material. If you have any questions about what does or does not constitute plagiarism, ask! Plagiarism is a serious offense and will not be treated lightly. Fortunately, it is also easy to avoid and if you are the least bit careful about giving credit where credit is due you should not run into any problems.” Visit: http://ctl.yale.edu/writing/using-sources for more details.

Coronavirus Disruptions This will be an unusual semester. If the Yale campus shuts down, the course will continue as planned, since it is online. Depending on timing and circumstances we may need to make adjustments to the schedule. If you need accommodations because of coronavirus-related disruptions, please immediately should email me and your Teaching Fellow. Likewise, if you become ill this semester, please work with your residential college dean and myself so we can make appropriate adjustments.

Required Texts

We will make use of the following texts. The books are available through online book sellers and the Yale Bookstore (and have been placed on 2 hour hold in Bass). The estimated price to buy all of them new is $42. However, electronic copies of all but one book, which costs $21, are available to you for free online through Yale Library.

• Jessica Chen Weiss. Powerful Patriots: Nationalist Protest in China's Foreign Relations. , 2014. Available online through the Yale Library. ($21 or free online via the Yale Library) • Bob Davis and Lingling Wei. Superpower Showdown: How the Battle Between Trump and Xi Threatens a New Cold War. Harper Business, 2020. Available for $21 online.

Optional Texts

We will make use of chapter materials from the following textbook, which is available through the Yale library. Buying these books is not necessary.

• Joseph, William A., ed. Politics in China: An Introduction (2nd Edition). Oxford University Press, 2014. Available online through the Yale Library. Newer 3rd edition (2019) available for $45 on Amazon. • Irene Yuan Sun. The Next Factory of the World. Harvard Business Review Press. 2017.

Course Readings Required readings are marked with a Ÿ symbol. Optional readings, which are not required in any way, are marked with a ◦ symbol.

I. Introduction

August 31: Introduction

• Politics in China, pp. 1-18. • Wang Yi, P.R.C. Foreign Minister. “Stay on the Right Track and Keep Pace with the Times to Ensure the Right Direction for China-US Relations,” July 9, 2020. • Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State. “Communist China and the Free World’s Future,” July 27, 2020.

II. Historical Overview: The Fall and Rise of China as a World Power

September 2: The Last Golden Age

• Confucius, The Analects, Books 1, 12-13. Translation by Robert Eno. You may wish to consult other translations as well. • Daniel Bell, “The Chinese Confucian Party?” Toronto Globe and Mail. February 19, 2010. o Optional: Shang Yang, The Book of Lord Shang, Chapter 8. o Optional: David Schneider, “China’s Legalist Revival,” The National Interest, o Optional: Jianying Zha, “China’s Heart of Darkness: Prince Han Fei and Chairman .” China Heritage.

September 7: The Fall of the Qing (1839-1911)

• Politics in China, Chapter 2, p. 41-53. • Wang, Zheng. Never Forget National Humiliation: Historical Memory in Chinese Politics and Foreign Relations. Columbia University Press, 2014. “Chapter 2: Chosen Glory, Chosen Trauma.” Suitable for response paper.

September 9: The Republican Era (1911-1949)

• Politics in China, Chapter 2, p. 53-69. • Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels. The Communist Manifesto. Chapter 1. • Zhao Suisheng. A Nation-State By Construction: Dynamics of Modern Chinese Nationalism. “Chapter 3: Building a Chinese Nation-State.” Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Spence, Jonathan D. The search for modern China. WW Norton & Company, 1990, Parts III & IV.

September 14: The Mao Era I (1949-1966)

• Politics in China, Chapter 3, p. 79-101. • Yang Jisheng. Tombstone: The Great Chinese , 1958-1962. Macmillan, 2012. “Introduction: An Everlasting Tombstone.” Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Tombstone, Chapter 1: "The Epicenter of the Disaster" o Optional: . “On the Correct Handling of Contradictions Among the People.” o Optional: Mao Zedong. “On the People's Democratic Dictatorship.” 30 June 1949.

September 16: The Mao Era II (1966-1978)

• MacFarquhar, Roderick, and Michael Schoenhals. Mao's Last Revolution. Harvard University Press, 2009. Introduction, Chapters 5, 6, and 7. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Walder, Andrew G. Agents of Disorder: Inside China's . Harvard University Press, 2019.

September 21: Reform and Opening (1978-1989)

• Politics in China, Chapter 4, p. 119-129. • Shirk, Susan L. The Political Logic of Economic Reform in China. Univ of California Press, 1993. Introduction. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: . 16 September 1978. “Hold High the Banner of Mao Zedong Thought and Adhere to the Principle of Seeking Truth From Facts."

September 23: The 1989 Protests

• Politics in China, Chapter 4, p. 129-138. • Zhao, Dingxin. "Ecologies of Social Movements: Student Mobilization during the 1989 Prodemocracy Movement in ." American Journal of Sociology 103.6 (1998): 1493-1529. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Documentary: Gate of Heavenly Peace. o Optional: Nathan, Andrew J. 2001. “The Tiananmen Papers." Foreign Affairs 80(1): p. 2-48. o Optional: Louisa Lim, The People's Republic of Amnesia: Tiananmen Revisited, Chapter 1.

September 28: The Jiang and Hu Eras (1989-2012)

• Susan Shirk, China Fragile Superpower, Chapter 1 (pp. 1-3) and Chapter 3. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Andrew Nathan. “China: The Struggle At the Top” New York Review of Books. February 9, 2017. http://www.chinafile.com/library/nyrb-china-archive/china-struggle-top

September 30: The Rise of Xi

• Susan Shirk, “China in Xi’s New Era: The Return to Personalist Rule”, Journal of . Volume 29, Number 2 April 2018 Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Evan Osnos. “Born Red.” The New Yorker. April 6, 2015. o Optional: Daniel Mattingly. “How the Party Commands the Gun: Coups, Revolts, and the Military in China.” Working paper. o Optional: Elizabeth Economy, The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State. Chapters 1 and 2. Or Susan Shirk, Xi’s Personalization of Power

III. Domestic Politics: What Explains the Resilience of the CCP?

September 5: Political Ideology

• Politics in China, Chapter 5; p. 149-62 and 177-188. • Jude Blanchett, China’s New Red Guards: The Return of Radicalism and the Rebirth of Mao Zedong. Excerpts TBD. Suitable for response paper. • Taisu Zhang. “What It Means to Be ‘Liberal’ or ‘Conservative’ in China.” Foreign Policy. April 24, 2015. o Optional: Perry, Elizabeth J. “The populist dream of Chinese democracy.” The Journal of Asian Studies 74.4 (2015): 903-915. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Xu Zhangrun, “Imminent Fears, Immediate Hopes.” Circulated online. Translated by Geremie R. Barmé. o Optional: Jiang Shigong: “Philosophy and History: Interpreting the ‘Xi Jinping Era’ through Xi’s Report to the Nineteenth National Congress of the CCP” Open Times (开放时代). January 2018. Translation by David Ownby. https://www.readingthechinadream.com/jiang-shigong- philosophy-and-history.html o Optional: “Charter 08.” Available at http://www.cecc.gov/resources/legal- provisions/charter-08-chinese-and-english-text

October 7: Political Institutions

• Politics in China, Chapter 6, p. 192-221. • Iza Ding. “Performative Governance.” World Politics. Forthcoming. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Nathan, Andrew J. 2003. “Authoritarian Resilience.” Journal of Democracy 14(1): p. 6-17. o Optional: Minxin Pei, “Introduction,” in China’s Crony Capitalism. Harvard University Press 2016. o Optional: Constitution of China o Optional: McGregor, Richard. The Party: The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers. Penguin UK, 2010. Chapter 3.

October 12: Tech, Innovation, and Economic Policy

• Kai-fu Lee. AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order. Excerpts. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Liu, Mingtang, and Kellee S. Tsai. "Structural Power, Hegemony, and State Capitalism: Limits to China’s Global Economic Power." Politics & Society (2020). Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Regina M. Abrami, William C. Kirby, and F. Warren McFarlan. “Why China Can’t Innovate.” Harvard Business Review. March 2014. o Optional: James Kynge. “The US Cannot Halt China’s March to Global Tech Supremacy.” Financial Times. August 23, 2018. o Suggested but not required: Politics in China, Chapter 8. o Optional: Chao Deng and Lingling Wei “China’s Effort to Control Debt Loses Steam,” Wall Street Journal. July 12, 2018. https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-effort-to-control-debt-loses-steam- 1531410115

October 14: Elite Politics

• Lauren Hilgers, “The Unraveling of Bo Xilai,” Harper’s Magazine. March 2013. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Andrew Nathan. “China: Back to the Future.” New York Review of Books. May 10, 2018. o Optional: Shih, Victor, Christopher Adolph, and Mingxing Liu. 2012. "Getting Ahead in the Communist Party: Explaining the Advancement of Central Committee Members in China." American Political Science Review 106.01: 166-187. o Optional: Joseph Fewsmith. “The 19th Party Congress: Ringing in Xi Jinping’s New Age.” China Leadership Monitor. o Optional: David Barboza. “Billions in Hidden Riches for Family of Chinese Leader.” . October 25, 2012. o Optional: Osnos, Evan. “China's Crisis.” The New Yorker. 30 April 2012. o Optional: Examine this visualization of China’s leading small groups: https://www.merics.org/en/merics-analysis/infographicchina-mapping/the- whos-who-of-chinas-leading-small-groups/ o Optional: Examine the Connected China project at Reuters: http://connectedchina.reuters.com/ o Optional: Examine the anti-corruption campaign at visualization at ChinaFile: https://anticorruption.chinafile.com/

October 19: Ethnic Politics and Xinjiang

• Greitens, Sheena Chestnut, Myunghee Lee, and Emir Yazici. "Counterterrorism and Preventive Repression: China's Changing Strategy in Xinjiang." International Security 44.3 (2020): 9-47. Suitable for response paper. Suitable for response paper. • Megha Rajagopalan, Alison Killing, and Christo Buschek “China Secretly Built A Vast New Infrastructure To Imprison Muslims” Buzzfeed News. Read online at: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/meghara/china- new-internment-camps-xinjiang-uighurs-muslims Suitable for response paper. • Alison Killing, Megha Rajagopalan. “What They Saw: Ex-Prisoners Detail The Horrors Of China's Detention Camps.” Buzzfeed News. Read online at: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/alison_killing/china-ex- prisoners-horrors-xinjiang-camps-uighurs Suitable for response paper. • Megha Rajagopalan. “This Is What A 21st-Century Police State Really Looks Like.” Buzzfeed News. Read online at: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/meghara/the-police-state-of-the- future-is-already-here . Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Austin Ramzy and Chris Buckley. “’Absolutely No Mercy’: Leaked Files Expose How China Organized Mass Detentions of Muslims.” The New York Times. November 16, 2019. Suitable for response paper. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/16/world/asia/china- xinjiang-documents.html o Optional: Eve Dou, Jeremy Page, and Josh Chin. “China’s Uighur Camps Swell as Beijing Widens the Dragnet.” Wall Street Journal. August 17, 2018. https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-uighur-camps-swell-as-beijing- widens-the-dragnet-1534534894 o Optional: Politics in China, Chapters 15, 16, 17 or 18.

October 21: Censorship, Surveillance, and Political Control

• Paul Mozur. Selections TBD. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Chen, Yuyu, and David Y. Yang. "The impact of media censorship: 1984 or brave new world?" American Economic Review 109.6 (2019): 2294-2332. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Daniel Mattingly The Art of Political Control in China. Chapter 1. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Ian Johnson. “China’s Great Uprooting: Moving 250 Million Into Cities.” New York Times. June 15, 2013. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/16/world/asia/chinas-great-uprooting- moving-250-million-into-cities.html?pagewanted=all o Optional: Lorentzen, Peter. "Designing Contentious Politics in Post-1989 China." Modern China (2017): 0097700416688895. o Optional: King, Gary, Jennifer Pan, and Margaret E. Roberts. "How censorship in China allows government criticism but silences collective expression." American Political Science Review 107.02 (2013): 326-343. o Optional: Deng, Yanhua, and Kevin J. O'Brien. "Relational repression in China: using social ties to demobilize protesters." 215 (2013): 533-552. o Optional: Perry, Elizabeth J. "A new rights consciousness?" Journal of Democracy 20.3 (2009): 17-20. o Optional: Lorentzen, Peter L. "Regularizing rioting: Permitting public protest in an authoritarian regime." Quarterly Journal of Political Science 8.2 (2013): 127-158.

IV. International Relations: What Does China’s Rise Mean for the World?

October 26: The Sino-American Rupture

• Bob Davis and Ling Ling Wei, Superpower Showdown. Read Chapters 3 to 10. Skim Chapters 11 through 19. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Autor, David H., David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson. "The China shock: Learning from labor-market adjustment to large changes in trade." Annual Review of Economics 8 (2016): 205-240. Suitable for response paper.

October 28: Frameworks for Understanding the U.S.-China Relationship

• Christensen, Thomas J. "Fostering stability or creating a monster? The rise of China and US policy toward East Asia." International Security 31.1 (2006): 81-126. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Zheng Bijian. “China's ‘peaceful rise’ to great-power status.” Foreign Affairs. 2005): 18-24. o Optional: Mearsheimer, John J. "China's unpeaceful rise." Current History 105.690 (2006): 160-162. o Optional: Social States: China in International Institutions, 1980-2000. Preface. o Optional: Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers. Selection TBD. o Optional: Richard Fontaine and Mira Rapp-Hooper. “How China Sees the World Order.” The National Interest.

November 2: The Military

• Fravel, M. Taylor. "Shifts in Warfare and Party Unity: Explaining China's Changes in Military Strategy." International Security 42.3 (2018): 37-83. Suitable for response paper. • U.S. Department of Defense. Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2019. pp. i-v, 1-11, 19-21. o Optional: Jane’s. China’s Advanced Weapons Systems. Executive Summary. o Optional: Browse http://chinapower.csis.org/military/ o Optional: “White Papers: China’s Military Strategy,” People’s Republic of China Ministry of National Defense, May 2015. o Optional: Cunningham, Fiona S., and M. Taylor Fravel. "Assuring Assured Retaliation: China's Nuclear Posture and US-China Strategic Stability." International Security 40.2 (2015): 7-50.

November 4: Soft Power

• Jessica Chen Weiss. “An Ideological Contest in U.S.-China Relations? Assessing China’s Defense of Autocracy” in Security and US-China Relations: Differences, Dangers, and Dilemmas, eds. Avery Goldstein and Jacques deLisle. Suitable for response paper. • Daniel Mattingly and James Sundquist. “China’s Autocratic Soft Power.” Working paper. Suitable for response paper.

November 9: Nationalism

• Jessica Chen Weiss, Powerful Patriots, Chapters 1-2, 4- 6, Chapters 8-9 Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Johnston, Alastair Iain. "Is Chinese Nationalism Rising? Evidence from Beijing." International Security 41.3 (2017): 7-43.

November 11: Territorial Disputes

• Weiss book (please see above for chapter selections.) • U.S. Department of Defense. Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2018, pages 11-17. o Optional: Fravel, M. Taylor. "China's strategy in the South China Sea." Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs 33.3 (2011): 292-319. o Optional: Fravel, M. Taylor. "Regime insecurity and international cooperation: Explaining China's compromises in territorial disputes." International Security 30.2 (2005): 46-83

November 16: China and Africa

• Irene Yuan Sun. The Next Factory of the World. Harvard Business Review Press. 2017. Excerpts TBD. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Ching Kwan Lee. “The Spectre of Global China.” New Left Review 89 September/October 2014. Suitable for response paper. o Optional: Michael D. Swaine. “Chinese Views and Commentary on the ‘One Belt, One Road’ Initiative.” China Leadership Monitor. o Optional: Maria Abi-Habib. “How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port.” The New York Times. June 25, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka- port.html o Optional: Deborah Brautigam, “Africa’s Eastern Promise,” Foreign Affairs, January 5, 2010.

November 18: Climate Change and Global Governance

• Thomas Christensen, “Global Governance: The Biggest Challenge of All,” in The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power (2016), p. 115-165. Suitable for response paper. • Geoff Dembicki. “The Convenient Disappearance of Climate Change Denial in China.” Foreign Policy. May 31, 2017. • Chris Buckley. “China’s Role in Climate Change, and Possibly in Fighting It.” New York Times. o Optional: Harrison, Tom, and Genia Kostka. “Balancing priorities, aligning interests: Developing mitigation capacity in China and .” Comparative Political Studies 47.3 (2014): 450-480.

November 30: Alliances

• Mira Rapp-Hooper. Shields of the Republic. Chapter 5. Suitable for response paper. • Andrea Kendall-Taylor, David Shullman, and Dan McCormick. “Navigating Sino-Russian Defense Cooperation,” War on the Rocks, August 2020. • Elsa Kania and Samuel Bendett. “The Resilience of Sino-Russian High Tech Cooperation.” War on the Rocks, August 2020.

V. Conclusion

December 2: The Future of China and the World

• Kurt M. Campbell and Ely Ratner. “The China Reckoning: How Beijing Defied American Expectations.” Foreign Affairs. March/April 2018 Issue. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2018-02-13/china- reckoning Suitable for response paper in conjunction with readings below. • Wang Jisi, et al. “Did America Get China Wrong? The Engagement Debate.” Foreign Affairs. July/August 2018 Issue. o Optional: Yan Xuetong interview. “Push for Independence in Taiwan Would Be the Biggest Crisis in the Future for China-US Relations.” Reference Material. Translation by David Bandurski. http://chinamediaproject.org/2018/06/26/yan-xuetong-on-the-bipolar- state-of-our-world/