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U·1\1·1 University Microfilms International a Bell & Howell Information Company 300 North Zeeb Road INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMi films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand corner and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each original is also photographed in one exposure and is included in reduced form at the back of the book. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. U·1\1·1 University Microfilms International A Bell & Howell Information Company 300 North Zeeb Road. Ann Arbor. M148106-1346 USA 313.'761-4700 800.'521-0600 Order Number 9312201 Elections, electoral behavior, and political parties in Korea, 1981-1992: A logit approach to ecological analysis and inference Kim, Hyun-woo, Ph.D. University of Hawaii, 1992 Copyright @1992 by Kim, Hyun-woo. All rights reserved. U·M·I 300N. Zeeb Rd. AnnArbor, MI48106 ELECTIONS, ELECTORAL BEHAVIOR, AND POLITICAL PARTIES IN KOREA, 1981- 1992: A LOGIT APPROACH TO ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND INFERENCE A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE [\~VISION OF THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN POLITICAL SCIENCE December 1992 By Hyun-woo Kim Dissertation Committee: Dae Sook Suh, Chairman Richard W. Chadwick Yasumasa Kuroda Soren Risbjerg Thomsen Yong-ho Ch' oe iii e Copyright by Hyun-woo Kim 1992 All Rights Reserved iv Dedicated to my parents. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author wishes to express his deep appreciation for the academic support offered by Dr. Dae Sook Suh as the advisor for this dissertation. Without his academic guidance and teaching on Korean politics, this study could not have been successfully completed. A grateful acknowledgment is made to Dr. Richard Chadwick, Dr. Yasumasa Kuroda, and Dr. Yong-ho Ch'oe. As committee members of the author's dissertation, thav provided valuable academic advice and materials. Special recognition goes to Dr. Soren Risbjerg Thomsen who provided his innovative computer method for ecological inference for the author. The author appreciates Dr. Thomsen's technical assistance in computing the voter mobility tables in Chapters 5 and 8 of this dissertation. The author is grateful to Dr. Michael Haas, Dr. Douglas Bwy, and Dr. Johan Galtung. They taught the author the scope and methods of political science, political theory, and international Relations. The author is also thankful to Dr. Robert Darcy and Dr. James Huston of Oklahoma State University for their academic support for the author. The author thanks Mr. Steve Tharp, Professor Denny Freese, and Ms Larke Go!aski for their valuable comments for this dissertation. The author also appreciates Mrs. and Dr. Randy K. D. Chun for their kindness to the author and his family during their stay in Hawaii. A special thanks is extended to my wife, Yun So-un, and two daughters, Mison and Inson who have encouraged and supported the author with their whole heart. To each and everyone, named and unnamed, the author is thankful. vi This dissertation used the McCune-Reischauer romanization system to translate Korean words into English. The exceptions are: Syngman Rhee (Sung-man Vi); Park Chung Hee (Pak Chong-hi): Chun 000 Hwan (Chon Tu­ hwan); Roh Tae Woo (No T'ae-u); and Seoul (Soul). vii ABSTRACT This study investigates important concepts of party politics such as party loyalty and voter mobility using official election statistics and the logit method for ecological analysis and inference. Party loyalty and voter mobility in the four National Assembly elections in the 1980s and 1992 are investigated. The consequences of the low level of party loyalty to the major parties, the fragile party system and frequent amendment of the electoral systems are examined. Components of Korean political culture are understood as the basic framework in the analysis. The consequences of low party loyalty and nonvoters' electoral behavior are also examined. The major find;'lgs in this study are the low level of party loyalty and the existence of a volatile electorate in the 1980s. Party loyalty for the DJP was low in 1985 (54.7 percent) and dropped even further in 1988 (41.7 percent). The DJP did not have a large group of loyal supporters in the 1980s although it was able to consistently obtain about one third of the valid votes cast in these elections. The electorate is not to be blamed for their volatile electoral behavior. Their low party loyalty and volatility resulted from the insufficient and inadequate function and performance of the party leaders and their parties. Changes in the electoral system and party structure have led to the emergence of strong regionalism, insufficient performances of parties, and the low level of voter loyalty. This low party loyalty, in turn, became one of the major causal factors for the mergers of political parties in 1990 and 1991. These mergers of viii parties differ from those of the 1950s and 60s in terms of their motives and patterns. The uncertainty management approach replaced the traditional and power approaches in explaining the merger phenomenon. In other words, the political leaders felt the necessity of uncertainty management after the 1988 National Assembly elections because of unsatisfactory election results. Merger politics are the current form of Korean politics. Besides the level of low party loyalty and fragile electoral behavior, one of the major findings is that components of political culture regulated the electoral dynamics in Korea in the 19805 and the early 1990s. It is concluded that the political culture regulation theory was examined and supported in this study. The voter mobility tables for the 1988 and 1992 National Assembly elections show that the merger of three parties in 1990 strengthened the 1988 ruling party voters' loyalty to the ruling DLP in 1992. It has increased from 41.7 percent in 1988 to 55.9 percent in 1992. ix TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS v ABSTRACT vii LIST OF TABLES xii LIST OF FIGURES xiv LIST OF MAPS xv LIST OF ABBREViATIONS xvi CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1 Purpose and Hypotheses 1 Structure 3 Background for the Study 6 Definitions and Descriptions of Concepts 9 Data 10 Limitations 11 Notes for Chapter 1 13 CHAPTER 2. THEORIES OF ELECTORAL BEHAVIOR: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 15 The Socio-Economic Status (SES) Model 15 The Social-Psychological Model 17 The Modernization (Urbanization) Model 20 The Rational Choice Model 21 An Alternative Framework: Political Culture 24 Korean Political Culture 27 The Political Culture Regulation Theory 30 Notes for Chapter 2 32 x CHAPTER 3. POLITICAL PARTIES: FUNCTION, PERFORMANCE, AND OPTIONS FOR SURVIVAL. 37 Political Parties 37 Function and Role of Political Parties 41 Character and Attributes of Korean Political Parties 44 Korean Political Parties: Performances and Options for Survival 50 Conclusion 54 Notes for Chapter 3 57 CHAPTER 4. ELECTIONS, ELECTORAL SYSTEMS, AND ELECTORAL 8Ei-iAVIOR 64 Elections and Voting: Meaning and Implications 64 Elections: Campaign and Actuality 67 Three National Assembly Elections of 1981, 1985, and 1988 71 Elections: Special Elections and Turnout 77 Electoral Systems: Formation and Changes 82 Electoral Systems: Applications and Consequences 85 Electoral Behavior: Patterns of Support and Turnout 91 Conclusion 96 Notes for Chapter 4 109 CHAPTER 5. ELECTORAL DYNAMICS, 1981-1988: METHOD AND Af\JALYSIS , 118 Party Loyalty 118 Ecological Inference 120 Ecoiogical Regression 122 The Logit Method for Ecological Inference 125 Validity and Reliability: Survey Data vs. Aggregate Data 130 Voter Mobility 134 Voter Mobility, 1981-1985 135 Voter Mobility, 1985-1988 140 Conclusion 145 Notes for Chapter 5 159 xi CH,~PTER 6. NON-VOTING 165 Studies on Nonvoting " 165 Description of Non-Voters 169 Causes of Non-Voting 173 Behavior of Korean Non-Voters 182 Prevention of Non-Voting 186 Conclusion ·· " "",., 189 Notes for Chapter 6 198 CHAPTER 7. POLITICS OF MERGER 206 The Merger Phenomenon 206 The Origins and Background History of Political Party Mergers 208 Approaches to the Merger of Political Parties 214 The Merger of Three Parties (Samdang t'onghap) 218 The Merger of Opposition Parties (Yakwon t'onghap) 226 Decisionmakers - The 1990 and 1991 Mergers 234 Conciusion 236 Notes for Chapter 7 239 CHAPTER 8. ELECTORAL DYNAMICS, 1988-1992 248 Results of the 14th National Assembly Elections 248 Voter Mobility, 1988-1992 254 Japanese Voter Mobility, 1986-1990 262 Invalid Votes: The Mystery 266 Conclusion 269 Notes for Chapter 8 282 CHAPTER 9. CONCLUSiON 285 Methodological Significance 293 Theoretical Significance 294 Empirical Significance 295 APPENDIX A 297 APPENDIX B 301 BIBLIOGRAPHY 305 xii LIST OF TABLES 4-1. The Allocation of National Assembly Seats, 1963 - 1992 99 4-2. The 1981 National Assembly Election Results 100 4-3. The 1985 National Assembly Election Results 101 4-4. The 1988 National Assembly Election Results 102 4-5. The 1992 National Assembly Election Results 103 4-6. The Tonghae-Si Election & Special Election 104 4-7. The Yongdungp'o B District Election Statistics in the 13th National Assembly Elections 104 4-8.
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