Canada-USA Salmon Shelf Survival Study: Results from 1998-2005 and Future Directions

Marc Trudel Fisheries and Oceans Canada High Seas Salmon Program Salmon & Steelhead Returns to the Bonneville Dam

500 Spring Chinook 400 00

10 300 X s t

n 200 u

Co 100

0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 700 600 Fall Chinook 00 500 400 300

unts X 10 200 o

C 100 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 300 Coho 250 00

10 200

X 150

100 unts

o 50 C 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 700 600 Steelhead 00 500 10 400 X s

t 300 n 200

Cou 100 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Ocean Entry Year Data from Fish Passage Center Ocean conditions & salmon production

The 5 P’s -PDO - Productivity -Prey - Predation - Physiology Conceptual model Juvenile Salmon Surveys (1998-2005)

59 N

ICY POINT 57 N

55 N PORTLA ND INLET

FORRESTER I. DOUG LA S CH . 53 N

HECATE ST. RIVERS INLET 51 N

Va TRIANGL E I. nc ou ve r 49 N Is. LAPEROUSE BK. 141 W 138 W 135 W 132 W 129 W 126 W 123 W Research questions

- Where do salmon go? - How much time do they spend in an area? - What are the environmental conditions they encounter? - How do ocean conditions affect salmon growth? - How do ocean conditions affect salmon survival? - Can we improve salmon forecast? Columbia River Salmon distribution & migration Juvenile Columbia-Snake River Chinook

Fall Chinook Spring Chinook

JUNE-AUGUST CWT RECOVERIES JUNE-AUGUST CWT RECOVERIES OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER JunAGE 0.0 CH–INOOAKug JunAGE 1.0 –CHINOOAKug 1995 - 2004 1995 - 2004

SEP-NOV CWT RECOVERIES SEP-NOV CWT RECOVERIES OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER SepAGE 0.0 CH–INOONK ov SepAGE 1.0 CH–INOONK ov 1995 - 2004 1995 - 2004 Juvenile CR Spring Chinook Migration Spring Chinook Salmon Migration Speed

30 Lower Columbia River 25

20

15

10

Number of fish 5

0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 60 Upper Columbia River 50

40

30

20

Number of fish 10

0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 16 14 Snake River sh

i 12 10 8 6 4

Number of f 2 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Migration speed (km/d) Columbia River Coho

Apr – May Jun – Aug

FEB-MAY CWT RECOVERIES JUNE-AUGUST CWT RECOVERIES OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER AGE 1.0 COHO AGE 1.0 COHO 1995 - 2004 1995 - 2004

Sep – Nov Feb – May

SEP-NOV CWT RECOVERIES FEB-MAY CWT RECOVERIES OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER AGE 1.0 COHO AGE 1.1 COHO 1995 - 2004 1995 - 2004 Ocean Conditions & Salmon growth Ocean Conditions (2001-2005)

14 25 C) o

( 12

e 20

ur 10 L) at g/ er 15

8 m ( mp e e t

t 6 a 10 tr i ace N

f 4 r

u 5 2 ea s

S 0 0 l l l l l l l l l l r r r r r r r r r r v v v v v u u u u u u u u u u j j j j j j j j j j a a a a a a a a a a no no no no no nov nov nov nov nov m m m m m m m m m m ------un- un- un- un- un- un- un- un- un- un- j j j j j j j j j j eb- eb- eb- eb- eb- eb- eb- eb- eb- eb- oct oct oct oct oct oct oct oct oct oct f f f f f f f f f f 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

10 280 )

0m 240

) 8 100 /

g/L 200 y m (

6 gdr

( 160

l a l

ass 120

phy 4 o om i 80 lor b h 2 n C o 40 t k n

la 0 l l l l 0 l r r r r r v v v v v l l l l l u u u u u r r r r r j j j j j a a a a a v v v v v u u u u u j j j j j a a a a a no no no no no m m m m m oop - - - - - no no no no no m m m m m un- un- un- un- un------Z j j j j j - - - - - un- un- un- un- un- j j j j j b b b b b eb- eb- eb- eb- eb- oct oct oct oct oct f f f f f oct oct oct oct oct fe fe fe fe fe 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Coho Growth Rate (May-Oct)

1.8 Southeast Alaska Southern British Columbia 1.6 ) d

/ 1.4 m (m s

te 1.2 a r th w o

r 1.0 G

0.8

0.6 003 004 005 006 997 998 999 000 001 002 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 Year Coho Feeding Rate (May-Oct)

16

14 ) d /

BW 12 % ( s e t a 10 n r o pti 8 um Cons 6 Southeast Alaska Southern British Columbia 4 2002 2003 2004 2005 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Simulated Growth of Coho (May-Oct)

500

900 cal/g 700 cal/g

400

300 ) Mass (g 200

100

0 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Day of the year Ocean Conditions & Salmon Survival Coho Marine Survival

30 Southeast Alaska Southern British Columbia 25 ) (% l a 20 v i v r u t S l 15 u d -A

10 t-to l o m S 5

0 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 980 981 982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 990 991 992 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Year Snake River Spring Chinook Survival

4.5 )

4.1 4.0 SAR = 1.6 · G 99 2 al (% R = 0.91 02 iv 3.5 04

3.0 01 00 dult Surv 2.5 03

2.0 98 Smolt-to-A 1.5 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 WCVI Coho Growth Rate (mm/d)

05 SAR from Scheuerell and Williams (2005) Summary

1. CR Fall Chinook establish coastal residence

2. CR Spring Chinook and Coho - Rapid northward migration - CR resident off WCVI and WA - Some southward migration (LOCR & SR)

3. Higher growth and survival in Alaska than southern BC

4. Marine survival of CR Chinook correlated to growth potential in British Columbia

5. Changes in growth likely due to changes in prey quality Future Directions West Coast of Vancouver Island Temperature

2.0 SR SAR 1.5

) 1.0 C ° y ( l 0.5 a m o

n 0.0 A

-0.5 SST

-1.0

-1.5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 Year

SAR from Scheuerell and Williams (2005) Research Needs

1. Annual variation in salmon migration POST + DNA 2. Direct measurements of survival }

3. Description of ocean conditions - Oregon Ocean Survival of Salmonids - Washington } - British Columbia Salmon Shelf Survival Study -Alaska }

4. Assess the effects of ocean conditions on CR salmon

5. Improve CR salmon forecast Work plan for FY07-FY09

- Monitor ocean conditions in BC and Alaska - Determine the biological attributes and migration of CR salmon - Assess the effects of ocean conditions on CR salmon - Develop and test metrics to forecast CR salmon runs - Develop a bioenergetics model of CR salmon growth - Coordinate research with POST and NMFS - Disseminate results through publications and presentations Acknowledgements David Welch (DFO - Nanaimo) Frank Whitney (DFO - Victoria) Terry Beacham (DFO - Nanaimo) Howard Freeland (DFO – Victoria) John Candy (DFO - Nanaimo) Moira Galbraith (DFO - Victoria) Dave Higgs (DFO – West Vancouver) Dave Mackas (DFO - Victoria) Jen Zamon (NMFS – Oregon) Joe Orsi (NMFS - Juneau) Joe Fisher (OSU - Corvalis) Rusty Sweeting (DFO - Nanaimo) J. Morris, M. Thiess, T. Zubkowski, H. MacLean, D. Anderson, E. Demers, P. Eveson, J. Fitzgerald, S. Grant, M. Jacobs, N. Jacques, A. Ladouceur, R. Lauzon, J. Love, G. Moody, M. Robert, S. Romaine, S. Towes, S. Tucker, T. Walker, J. Wickstead, M. Wyeth, J. Zamon and many other volunteers

CCGS W.E. Ricker, F.V. Ocean Selector, F.V. Frosti

Funding: DFO, Bonneville Power Administration