Canada-USA Salmon Shelf Survival Study: Results from 1998-2005 and Future Directions Marc Trudel Fisheries and Oceans Canada High Seas Salmon Program Salmon & Steelhead Returns to the Bonneville Dam 500 Spring Chinook 400 00 10 300 X s t n 200 u Co 100 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 700 600 Fall Chinook 00 500 400 300 unts X 10 200 o C 100 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 300 Coho 250 00 10 200 X 150 100 unts o 50 C 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 700 600 Steelhead 00 500 10 400 X s t 300 n 200 Cou 100 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Ocean Entry Year Data from Fish Passage Center Ocean conditions & salmon production The 5 P’s -PDO - Productivity -Prey - Predation - Physiology Conceptual model Juvenile Salmon Surveys (1998-2005) 59 N ICY POINT 57 N 55 N PORTLAND INLET FORRESTER I. DOUGLAS CH. 53 N HECATE ST. RIVERS INLET 51 N Va TRIANGLE I. nc ou ve r 49 N Is. LAPEROUSE BK. 141 W 138 W 135 W 132 W 129 W 126 W 123 W Research questions - Where do salmon go? - How much time do they spend in an area? - What are the environmental conditions they encounter? - How do ocean conditions affect salmon growth? - How do ocean conditions affect salmon survival? - Can we improve salmon forecast? Columbia River Salmon distribution & migration Juvenile Columbia-Snake River Chinook Fall Chinook Spring Chinook JUNE-AUGUST CWT RECOVERIES JUNE-AUGUST CWT RECOVERIES OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER JunAGE 0.0 CH–INOOAKug JunAGE 1.0 –CHINOOAKug 1995 - 2004 1995 - 2004 SEP-NOV CWT RECOVERIES SEP-NOV CWT RECOVERIES OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER SepAGE 0.0 CH–INOONK ov SepAGE 1.0 CH–INOONK ov 1995 - 2004 1995 - 2004 Juvenile CR Spring Chinook Migration Spring Chinook Salmon Migration Speed 30 Lower Columbia River 25 20 15 10 Number of fish 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 60 Upper Columbia River 50 40 30 20 Number of fish 10 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 16 14 Snake River sh i 12 10 8 6 4 Number of f 2 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Migration speed (km/d) Columbia River Coho Apr – May Jun – Aug FEB-MAY CWT RECOVERIES JUNE-AUGUST CWT RECOVERIES OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER AGE 1.0 COHO AGE 1.0 COHO 1995 - 2004 1995 - 2004 Sep – Nov Feb – May SEP-NOV CWT RECOVERIES FEB-MAY CWT RECOVERIES OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER OF COLUMBIA-SNAKE RIVER AGE 1.0 COHO AGE 1.1 COHO 1995 - 2004 1995 - 2004 Ocean Conditions & Salmon growth Sea surface temperature ( oC) Chlorophyll a (mg/L) 10 10 12 14 Ocean Conditions (2001-2005) 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 2 feb-mar 2 feb-mar 001 001 jun-jul jun-jul oct-nov oct-nov feb-mar 2 2002 feb-mar 002 jun-jul jun-jul oct-nov oct-nov feb-mar 2003 2 feb-mar 003 jun-jul jun-jul oct-nov oct-nov 2004 feb-mar 200 feb-mar jun-jul jun-jul 4 oct-nov oct-nov feb-mar 200 feb-mar 200 jun-jul jun-jul 5 5 oct-nov oct-nov Nitrate (mg/L) Zooplankton biomass (gdry/1000m) 120 160 200 240 280 10 15 20 25 40 80 0 5 0 2 feb-mar 2 feb-mar 001 001 jun-jul jun-jul oct-nov oct-nov 200 feb-mar 2002 feb-mar jun-jul jun-jul 2 oct-nov oct-nov 2003 feb-mar 2003 feb-mar jun-jul jun-jul oct-nov oct-nov 200 feb-mar 200 feb-mar jun-jul jun-jul 4 4 oct-nov oct-nov 2005 feb-mar 2 feb-mar 0 0 jun-jul jun-jul 5 oct-nov oct-nov Growth rates (mm/d) 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Coho Growth Rate (May-Oct) 1997 Southern BritishColumbia Southeast Alaska 1998 1999 2000 2001 Ye a r 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Consumption rates (%BW/d) 10 12 14 16 Coho Feeding Rate(May-Oct) 4 6 8 1997 Southern BritishColumbia Southeast Alaska 1998 1999 2000 Ye a 2001 r 2002 2003 2004 2005 Simulated Growth of Coho (May-Oct) 500 900 cal/g 700 cal/g 400 300 ) Mass (g 200 100 0 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Day of the year Ocean Conditions & Salmon Survival Smolt-to-Adult Survival (%) 15 20 25 30 10 0 5 1980 1981 Southern BritishColumbia Southeast Alaska 1982 Coho MarineSurvival 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Ye 1990 a r 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Snake River Spring Chinook Survival 4.5 ) 4.1 4.0 SAR = 1.6 · G 99 2 al (% R = 0.91 02 iv 3.5 04 3.0 01 00 dult Surv 2.5 03 2.0 98 Smolt-to-A 1.5 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 WCVI Coho Growth Rate (mm/d) 05 SAR from Scheuerell and Williams (2005) Summary 1. CR Fall Chinook establish coastal residence 2. CR Spring Chinook and Coho - Rapid northward migration - CR resident off WCVI and WA - Some southward migration (LOCR & SR) 3. Higher growth and survival in Alaska than southern BC 4. Marine survival of CR Chinook correlated to growth potential in British Columbia 5. Changes in growth likely due to changes in prey quality Future Directions West Coast of Vancouver Island Temperature 2.0 SR SAR 1.5 ) 1.0 C ° y ( l 0.5 a m o n 0.0 A -0.5 SST -1.0 -1.5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 Year SAR from Scheuerell and Williams (2005) Research Needs 1. Annual variation in salmon migration POST + DNA 2. Direct measurements of survival } 3. Description of ocean conditions - Oregon Ocean Survival of Salmonids - Washington } - British Columbia Salmon Shelf Survival Study -Alaska } 4. Assess the effects of ocean conditions on CR salmon 5. Improve CR salmon forecast Work plan for FY07-FY09 - Monitor ocean conditions in BC and Alaska - Determine the biological attributes and migration of CR salmon - Assess the effects of ocean conditions on CR salmon - Develop and test metrics to forecast CR salmon runs - Develop a bioenergetics model of CR salmon growth - Coordinate research with POST and NMFS - Disseminate results through publications and presentations Acknowledgements David Welch (DFO - Nanaimo) Frank Whitney (DFO - Victoria) Terry Beacham (DFO - Nanaimo) Howard Freeland (DFO – Victoria) John Candy (DFO - Nanaimo) Moira Galbraith (DFO - Victoria) Dave Higgs (DFO – West Vancouver) Dave Mackas (DFO - Victoria) Jen Zamon (NMFS – Oregon) Joe Orsi (NMFS - Juneau) Joe Fisher (OSU - Corvalis) Rusty Sweeting (DFO - Nanaimo) J. Morris, M. Thiess, T. Zubkowski, H. MacLean, D. Anderson, E. Demers, P. Eveson, J. Fitzgerald, S. Grant, M. Jacobs, N. Jacques, A. Ladouceur, R. Lauzon, J. Love, G. Moody, M. Robert, S. Romaine, S. Towes, S. Tucker, T. Walker, J. Wickstead, M. Wyeth, J. Zamon and many other volunteers CCGS W.E. Ricker, F.V. Ocean Selector, F.V. Frosti Funding: DFO, Bonneville Power Administration .