International and Social Impacts of Artificial Intelligence Technologies
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SUMMER SCHOOLS EXPERT COMMENTARIES GUEST LECTURES SCENARIOS TABLES INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING FOREIGN POLICY DISCUSSIONS REFERENCE BOOKS IALOGUE ETWORK SCIENCE WORKING PAPERS DUCATION D N PROJECTS OUND E REPORTS NALYSISANDFORECASTING R A PROJECTS ECURITY ORGANIZATIONS COMPETITIONS NTERNATIONAL ACTIVITY CONFERENCES DUCATION E I S DUCATION FOREIGN POLICY TALENT POOL POOL E POLITICS REPORTS GLOBAL POLITICS ETWORK CENARIOS NTERNATIONAL I N NTERNATIONALORGANIZATIONS S CIVIL SOCIETY I LOBAL RELATIONS G TALENT EFERENCEBOOKS NTERNATIONAL R RUSSIAN I ORGANIZATIONS SECURITY INTERNATIONALEDUCATION SUMMER RELATIONS AFFAIRS COUNCIL POLICY SCHOOLS ROUND GUEST LECTURES ISCUSSIONS TABLES OCIETY EPORTS IGRATION S PARTNERSHIP R OREIGN NTERNATIONAL IBRARY XPERT OADMAPS F R I E ONFERENCES IPLOMACY D M L NTERNATIONAL LOBAL IVIL IGRATION G COMMENTARIES C M I ACTIVITY NTHOLOGIES ILATERAL POOL D SCIENCE C REPORTS ECURITY BOOKS NTERNSHIPS I ISCUSSIONS B IPLOMACY A D WEBSITE PARTNERSHIP INTERNSHIPS S TALENT DIALOGUE ANTHOLOGIESGLOBAL GLOBAL D POLICY ONFERENCES SCIENCE C FORECASTING POLICY EFERENCE IGRATION ANALYSIS SCIENCE IBRARY EBSITE OADMAPS OREIGN R IPLOMACY CENARIOS NALYSIS F R L M OREIGN D S W AND FORECASTING F DIALOGUE INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS A AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS NETWORK CLUB MEETINGS DIALOGUE DIPLOMACY PROJECTS DIALOGUE IVIL OCIETY UMMER WORKINGC S PAPEREBSITE ECURITY COMMENTARIES EBSITE W S IGRATION PROJECTS LECTURES S SCHOOLS EXPERT COMMENTARIES FOREIGN POLICY W M RELATIONS XPERT E IPLOMACY EDUCATION UEST D G ETWORK ARTNERSHIP NTERNSHIPS NALYSISAND SCIENCE A I N P IBRARY FORECASTING INTERNATIONALL AND SOCIALIVIL OCIETY ONFERENCES C S ECURITY S C ANTHOLOGIES GLOBAL POLITICS CIENCE S ILATERAL LUBMEETINGS IMPACTS OF ARTIFICIAL C OMPETITIONS B USINESS ROUND TABLES C EPORTS INTELLIGENCE TECHNOLOGIES OADMAPS WORKING PAPERS IGRATION R PAPERS RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL (RIAC) ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING R B CENARIOS 1, B. Yakimanka street, 119180, Moscow, Russia ARTNERSHIP LOBAL S REFERENCE BOOKS P Tel.: +7 (495) 225 6283 OMPETITIONS ORKING IBRARY ARTNERSHIP L M NTERNSHIPS Fax: +7 (495) 225 6284 G C I W EXPERT COMMENTARIES P LIBRARY SCIENCE E–mail: [email protected] COMMENTARIES www.russiancouncil.ru 44 / 2018 INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS ORGANIZATIONS REFERENCE BOOKS EDUCATION ISCUSSIONS ISCUSSIONS LOBAL UMMERSCHOOLS OADMAPS XPERT D S OMPETITIONS IVIL UEST LECTURES OCIETY INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS G ILATERAL C S R C D G E B RELATIONS ORKING PAPERS NTHOLOGIES MEETINGS NTHOLOGIES W A UMMER ONFERENCES LOBALPOLITICS LUB G CIENCE NTERNATIONAL S SCHOOLS C S I A FOREIGN POLICY TALENT POOL REFERENCE BOOKS C RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL MOSCOW 2018 Russian International Affairs Council Editorial Board Editor-in-Chief: I.S. Ivanov, RAS Corresponding Member, Dr. of History Authors: S.V. Karelov; M.V. Karliuk; A.G. Kolonin, PhD in Technical Sciences; N.М. Markotkin; D.R. Scheftelowitsch, PhD. in Natural Sciences Copy editors: I.N. Timofeev, Ph.D. in Political Science; T.A. Makhmutov, Ph.D. in Political Science; A.U. Tolstukhina, Ph.D. in Political Science; N.М. Markotkin, О.А. Pylova, M.V. Smekalova, I.S. Sorokina, A.L. Teslya International and Social Impacts of Artificial Intelligence Technologies. Working Paper No. 44 / 2018 [S.V. Karelov, M.V. Karliuk, A.G. Kolonin, N.М. Markotkin, D.R. Scheftelowitsch]; [I.S. Ivanov, Editor-in- Chief]; Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). – Moscow: NPMP RIAC, 2018. – 52 pages. – Names of authors and editors are listed on reverse of title page. ISBN 978-5-6041888-0-4 The Working Paper focuses on possible impacts of related technologies, such as machine learning and autonomous vehicles, on international relations and society. The authors also examine the ethical and le- gal aspects of the use of AI technologies. The present Working Paper of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) includes analytical materials prepared by experts in the field of artificial intelligence, ma- chine learning and autonomous system, as well as by lawyers and sociologists. The materials presented here are intended to contribute to the public dialogue on issues of artificial intelligence and the possible consequences of using this technology. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of RIAC. Any linguistic inadequacies in the publication are the sole responsibility of the translation editors. The full text of the working paper is available on RIAC’s website. You can download it or leave a com- ment via this direct link – russiancouncil.ru/en/paper44 © S.V. Karelov, M.V. Karliuk, A.G. Kolonin, N.М. Markotkin, D.R. Scheftelowitsch, 2018 © Drafting, translation and design. NPMP RIAC, 2018 Contents Introduction 4 Artificial Intelligence: Time of the Weak 5 Artificial Intelligence: A Blessing or a Threat for Humanity? 13 AI Nationalism and AI Nationalization are Ahead 19 A Brave New World Without Work 36 Ethical and Legal Issues in Artificial Intelligence 43 About Authors 50 Russian International Affairs Council 51 www.russiancouncil.ru 3 INTERNATIONAL AND SOCIAL IMPACTS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TECHNOLOGIES Introduction Artificial Intelligence (AI), which until recently was the exclusive realm of sci- ence fiction, is now one of the most promising and rapidly developing technolo- gies. Limited or “weak” AI technologies are regularly used in various fields, from mobile phones and consumer electronics to defense products. At the same time, there are very few areas of scientific knowledge that are quite as mythologized as AI. Largely due to the images created by popular culture, ar- tificial intelligence often appears in the media as a kind of Pandora’s box which, when opened, will inevitably lead humanity to the brink of apocalypse. While such alarmism seems unfounded, the development of “strong” artificial intelli- gence that is capable of making informed management decisions is clearly on the agenda today. The prospect of creating a technology of this kind largely calls into question not only the current system of the global division of labour, but also the existing world order and the international security architecture. Against the backdrop of the heightened tensions and the collapse of confidence between the great powers, there is a real danger that a new arms race in the field of artificial intelligence tech- nologies could develop. Having said that, while control over the other types of weapons of mass destruction – nuclear, chemical and biological – is regulated by the relevant international agreements and conventions, the development of mili- tary artificial intelligence technologies remains in a “grey area” of international law. At the same time, it is clear today that artificial intelligence will be increasingly used in the military and civilian spheres, including in terms of ensuring strategic stability. The temptation to obtain a new and more advanced weapon and pull ahead in the technological race is too great for countries to take humanitarian considerations into account. One of the problems facing researchers is the massive conceptual and termino- logical confusion that exists in the field of AI. This working paper systematizes the current knowledge of AI technologies and evaluates the prospects for its de- velopment. At the centre of our analysis is the possible impact of artificial intelligence and related technologies (machine learning, automated devices) on international re- lations and various spheres of public life. The articles contained herein also con- sider the ethical and legal aspects of implementing AI technologies. The present Working Paper of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) includes analytical materials prepared by experts in the field of artificial intelli- gence, machine learning and autonomous system, as well as by lawyers and so- ciologists. The materials presented here are intended to contribute to the public dialogue on issues of artificial intelligence and the possible consequences of us- ing this technology. 4 Working Paper No. 44 / 2018 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: TIME OF THE WEAK Artificial Intelligence: Time of the Weak D. Scheftelowitsch The term “artificial intelligence (AI) normally denotes a computer program, i.e. an al- gorithm, that is capable of solving problems which an adult human brain can solve. The International Dictionary of Artificial Intelligence1 denotes AI as the area of knowl- edge that deals with the development of technologies that enable computing sys- tems to operate in a way that resembles intelligent behaviour, including the behav- iour of humans. It should be noted that this definition is phenomenological; it leaves the notions of intellect and intelligent behaviour to be detailed by philosophy. Giv- en the shortage of knowledge about the brain and the cognitive apparatus of bio- logical systems, the notion of AI defies more precise mathematical formalization. At present, AI research is normally understood as the use of algorithms to solve problems that require cognitive strain.2 Such problems used to imply (and par- tially still imply) games such as chess and Go, handwriting recognition, machine translation and creative work. In the eyes of the general public, each of these problems was originally perceived as the last remaining obstacle to the creation of a “true” AI, one that would be able to replace humans in all fields of expertise. In reality, it turned out that teaching a computer to play chess is much easier than teaching it to play