STRENGTHENING AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION CAPACITY IN COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE Haris Syahbuddin and Irsal Las Senior Researcher Indonesian Center for Agricultural Land Resources Research and Development
WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE? Definition and Prime Factor of Climate Change Climate change is a necessity phenomenon and occurrence on the basis of (a) the climate as a natural phenomenon which is indeed very dynamic and (b) caused by changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) which is also very dynamic. Increasing concentrations of GHGs are very closely related to the human activities involving more fossil energy to cause the increase in GHG emissions. Therefore, a significant rise in the GHG concentration occurred since the industrial revolution in the late 18th century has had an impact on global warming. Since the era there has been an increase of greenhouse gas concentrations from about 250 ppm to about 390 ppm as a result of an increase in the rate of GHG emissions which consist of CO2, CO, CH4, N2O, Cr, etc. Currently, the average air temperature has risen from 23.7 to 24.2oC which ultimately resulted in elevating sea levels, more frequent extreme climate occurrences or climatic anomalies, turmoil and shifting rainfall patterns, etc. In addition, observatory and historical data in many locations show that the increase in surface temperatures (both land and sea) is very diverse and determined by several factors, however, the largest amplify occurred in the northern polar region. The rise in global average temperature has led to the changes in the global climate system that has impacted various elements of the climate and its derivations. In the agricultural sector (food sub sector in particular), the very significant impacts of climate change (besides the increase in air temperature) are the change in rainfall patterns and more frequent extreme climate events or climatic anomalies, specifically due to the El-Nino and La-Nina. An increase in GHG emissions has been caused by a wide range of human activities, especially in the sectors of industry, energy and transport, and parts of agricultural and forestry sectors. In Indonesia, the main causes of changes in greenhouse gas emissions are dominated by forestry and land management changes (land use change and forestry, LUCF), industry and energy, transport and agriculture. In addition to peat land management, contribution of agricultural sector to GHG emissions is relatively small, namely 5.4%, while contributions of other sectors such as energy and electricity, transport, various types of industry, population, and use of commercial goods are by 42, 24, 20, and about 14%, respectively. Activities in agricultural and forestry sectors are the dominant factors to cause the increase in GHG emissions, a.o. (a) the process of deforestation (land use change) that decreases the rate of carbon sequestration (due to less CO2 uptake by plants) from the air and ballast GHG emissions, as well as the new land opening especially peatland management, and (b) improved agricultural practices that have implied on GHG emissions, such as fertilization, wet farming systems (rice), increase population of ruminant livestocks, etc. Sources of emissions in the agricultural sector are given dominantly by LUCF and plantations
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on peat (>65%) and then followed by paddy fields (24%) and livestock (9.3%) (SNC, MoE, 2010). The above efforts to minimize GHG emissions can be classified as mitigation. Various mitigation efforts are to be continued in order to decrease GHG emissions along with adapting to the climate change itself. Combination of mitigation and adaptation to climate change should be done in parallel to accelerate emission reductions and increase agricultural production and resources efficiency, as well as to facilitate the easiness for stakeholders (in this case farmers) in adoption and understanding. The way is in line with the policies in agricultural sector which primarily prioritize or select adaptation as an effort to mitigate and adjust to increasing production. According to agricultural sector, increased production is an obligation to be met in order to keep pace with population growth and the needs of national and world for staple food. This paper is more focused on adaptation approaches to minimize the impacts of climate change on production of food crops (especially rice, corn, and soybeans) because of their short period of ages (only 60-120 days). The food crops are very vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns, temperature, sunlight, wind speed, soil fertility, water availability, and sea level rise. In addition, the food crops supply staple foods which greatly influence the life and sustainability.
Recent Status of Global Climate Change and Indonesia
Globally, the most prominent phenomenon of climate change is the increasing air temperatures on earth's surface, raising sea levels, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased frequency of extreme climate events, such as extreme air temperatures on the certain regions and time including the incidence of hurricanes and cyclones, and related disasters such as droughts, floods, landslides, etc. Various studies show that global average temperature has increased by about 0.85°C (with a range of 0.65 to 1.06°C) over 1880 to 2012 period. This value is slightly higher than the difference between the average values during the periods of 1850-1900 and 2003-2012 amounting to 0.78 (0.72 to 0.85)°C (IPCC, 2013). Such information further encourages care and attention as well as the importance of mainstreaming climate change in various development sectors, particularly with regard to agriculture and food security. The major impact of climate change is increasing a few degrees of the air temperature. According to SREX report published by IPCC (IPCC, 2012) that the increase in global average temperatures and climate change is also closely related to extreme conditions or climatic anomalies in several regions. Extreme temperature conditions to have more direct impact with short time lag of the life sectors (such as food sector) compared to slowly upward trend of average air temperature and its effects which goes even slower. Global target throughout the world community keeps the rise of air temperature in 2050 should not exceed 2°C. According to the Japan Meteorology Agency (2015), in 2015 the air temperature is the hottest one over the last 4,000 years, in which the temperature rise reaches 0.017oC (Figure 1).
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Figure 1. Monthly global average temperature in July (source: JMA, 2015). The black thin line indicates surface temperature anomaly of each year. The blue line indicates their 5-year running mean. The red line indicates the long-term linear trend
Real impact conditions of global climate change on the climatic dynamics in Indonesia are related to the dynamics and changes in rainfall patterns, shifting seasons, air temperature, and more frequencies of extreme climate or climate anomaly, especially the incidences of El-Nino and La-Nina and their trends. Climatic variations and changes in Indonesia are strongly influenced by three major factors controlling the global climate with different weights of time and impact scales among the regions. These three main factors are (a) ENSO (El Nino South Oscillation) phenomenon related to the atmospheric circulation and dynamics due to the dynamics of sea surface temperature in the South Pacific Ocean,(b) IOD (Indian Oscillation Dipole) phenomenon related to the air dynamic and circulation between Indian Ocean and Asia and West Africa continents, and (c) air circulation associated with the ITCZ (inter tropical convergence zone) which is the dynamic and circulation of air around the Equator or central region of Indonesia. The phenomena of ENSO in the Pacific Ocean and IOD in the Indian Ocean are closely linked with climate anomalies in Indonesia causing floodings and droughts (Hamada et al ., 2002; Wu et al ., 2003; Syahbuddin, 2006; Faqih dan Boer, 2014). Most types of rainfall in Indonesia are monsoonal which are basically similar to those once performed by Boerema (1938) dividing the Indonesian precipitations into monsoonal, equatorial, and local types (Aldrian et al ., 2003). The areas with monsoonal rainfall type occurring in most of southern region of Indonesia (especially Java and Nusa Tenggara) are the most sensitive places to be influenced by large scale climate control (especially in Indo- Pacific) that these areas are also very vulnerable to the impacts of global climate change. Over the past 100 years, the increase rate of average air temperature in Indonesia is not more than 1°C, as reported in the document of National Action Plan on Adaptation to Climate Change (RAN-API). However, if there is no global effort, the rate may keep increasing in the future. Based on a shorter period of data, it is obvious that the increase rate of average air temperature in Indonesia possibly reach more than 1°C as illustrated in Figure 2a and 2b (CRU, 2008; Boer, 2009).
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Figure 2a. Trends of average annual temperatures in Indonesia (6° N -11°08' S and 95°' E - 141°45' E) based on CRU TS3.1 data (CRU, 2008)
In addition, we also need to pay attention to decreasing tendency in air temperature after 2001 as shown in Figure 2a. In 1970s, air temperature decreases followed by increases in the next year could be repeated, in which the level of anomalous rise in air temperature is greater than that in the '70s era.
28.0280 o o July: 1,4 C/100 years 27.5275 Juli: 1,4 C / 100 thn y = 0.1424x - 9.9843 27.0270
26.5265
C
o T 26.0260
25.5255 y = 0.1039x + 58.901 25.0250 o o JanuariJanuary:: 1,04 1,04C/100C years / 100 thn 24.5245 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Figure 2b. Temperature changes during rainy (January) and dry (July) seasons in Jakarta, 1860-2000 (Boer, 2009)
Changing impacts in rainfall patterns due to climate change are not always the same and in harmony among regions. Regions of the northern coast of Java are likely to experience in decreasing rainfall in 1971-2000 than in 1981-2009 periods, whereas in most areas of Sumatra and other regions with monsoonal rainfall type show a significant downward trend of rainfall in 1901-1930 period. In contrast, the islands in western region witnessed an increasing trend of rainfall in 1921-1950 period (CRU TS3.1; CRU, 2008; Mitchell and Jones, 2005). The spatially diversities influence the assessment on prediction and projection changes
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of precipitation patterns being somewhat more difficult than that on the temperatures which tend to be relatively uniform (Faqih and Boer, 2014). As the main climatic elements to influence most significantly on the agri-food sector in Indonesia, rainfall is predicted to experience a lot of changes in its patterns in the future. Reports by Second National Communication (SNC; MoE, 2010) showed 14 changing trends of precipitation patterns based on GCM models with two emission scenarios which are SRES A2 and B1 for 2025 and 2050 period. It is projected that changes in rainfall pattern during seasonal period are shown inequality among the bigger islands of Indonesia.
In the rainy season, decreasing precipitations are projected to occur most in Sumatra and Kalimantan islands. As for the areas dominated by the Australian monsoonal phenomena (such as Java, Nusa Tenggara, and Papua), increasing rainfall occurs in 2025’s period and it will be further expanded in 2050's period. In addition, increasing rainfall occurs during the dry season in the northern parts of Indonesia, but the opposite situation occurs in south region (Java and Nusa Tenggara). The trend is also potential to change the start of rainy season which greatly influence the planting pattern of food crops. One derivation impact of climate change also influencing strongly on the agricultural sector is the increase in sea water level (SWL) which is caused by global, regional, and local factors. The factors are linked to seawater expansion, icebergs melting due to increased global temperatures which specifically happen in certain areas as a result of vertical movement of sea water (IPCC, 2007). For the Indonesian region, the sea water level (MAL) tends to increase in a rate of about 0-9 mm/year, particularly in central and eastern parts. ICCSR study results showed that during 2001-2008, there was an increase in Indonesian MAL by 6 cm ranging from 2-12 cm. This is compared to the conditions in the previous period (during 1993-2000) (Bappenas, 2010a).
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SCENARIOS
Agriculture-Climate Change Relations Agriculture and climate change linkage is very unique and interesting. In one hand, agriculture is the sector that is very suffered, vulnerable, and threatened by climate change. On the other hand, it acts as the cause and problem (because of contributing to GHG emissions) but also as solution and potential for mitigation. In the agricultural sector, food crops sub-sector is the most vulnerable to climate change. Besides, an increase in GHG
(especially CO2) is predicted to contribute positive impact on crop productivity, in relation to increased photosynthetic capacity. These circumstances provide a counter balance to the negative impact of the increase in CO2. General scheme of the climate change risks on agriculture on each impact component is illustrated in Figure 3.
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Increasing of Green House Gasses
Balance
Changing of Increasing in Increasing in Distribution Air Temperature Water Sea Level Incresing in rainfall pattern photosintesis
Water Increasing in Increasing in Increasing in shortage and water vapor, salinity, lost Water too much humidity, and agriculture Consumption rain pest and diseases land
Drought, Crop flooding, and Dried up and damage and Crop harvest fail crop damage land degradation Growth +/-
Infrastructures Decreasing in Crop damage, Decreasing in productivity productivity Productivity decreasing in +/- productivity to total lost production
Figure 3. Schematic impacts of Climate change on agricultural production (source : Syahbuddin, 2015) Impacts of Climate Change Impacts of climate change on agriculture can be sorted by the coherency, process, and nature of the impacts. Besides biologically, through limiting climate elements on the processes of plant physiology, the effects of climate change also happen through degradation of land resources and scarcity-excess of water resources, and reduction of infrastructure capacity. Such effects on food production have directly impacted on food security, socio-economic, and farmers’ welfare. Under the processes, the direct influences of climate change are through the resources and production systems, and indirectly effects are through infrastructure and policies, such as land and water resources management or governance, food distribution and prices systems (Haryono dan Las, 2011). In relation to causality, the impacts of climate change could be discontinuous, continuous, and permanent. The discontinuous impact generally caused by extreme climate occurences (floods, drought, strong winds, etc.) causes decreased crop production, harvest failure or even pest explosion. Continuous impact caused by temperature rise, shifting rainfall patterns, and increased soil salinity also leads to a decline in production, cropping index (IP), and cropping patterns. While the permanent impact of climate change includes shrinkage of agricultural land in coastal areas due to sea water level (MAL) rise (Boer et al., 2011). Changes in patterns and frequencies/amounts of rainfall lead to changes in the potential and availability of water reservoir and river discharges. In the last 10 years, water
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volume in Citarum reservoir has been likely to decline from an average of 5.7 to 4.9 billion m3 per year which leads to significantly decrease in its capacity to irrigate paddy fields in the northern coastal areas. Similar condition also occurs in Gajahmungkur and Kedung Ombo reservoirs. Many studies show that the delay of rainy season for 30 days caused by the shifting in rainfall patterns lowers rice production in West and Central Java by 6.5% and Bali by 11%
(KP3I, 2008). Due to El-Nino, the paddy field areas prone to drought and parched increase from 0.3-1.4% to 3.1-7.8% and 0.04-0.4% to 0.04-1.9%, respectively. As a result of La Nina, the paddy fields threatened by flooding and parched also increase from 0.8-2.7% to 1-3% and 0.2-0.7% to 8.7-13.8%, respectively (Las et al., 2010). Climatic anomaly (El-Nino and La-Nina) is one of the climate change phenomena to influence most significantly on rice production. The elements of climate change most often resulting in agricultural risks are extreme climate and changes in rainfall distribution patterns, mainly related to the El-Nino and La-Nina. Approximately 55 % chance of an El Nino to be followed by a La Nina (NOAA, 2015). Based on 26 years historical data (1989-2015), there have been around 10 and 8 times El Nino and La Nina occurences, consisting of 2 times strong El- Nino (1997-1998 and 2015) and the first time strong La-Nina in 1988-1989 (BMKG, 2015). Nevertheless, at the time of a weak El-Nino in 1991, the paddy field areas affected by drought and parched were very broad reaching 602.041 and 151.994 ha, respectively. The coverages were the largest damage ever during the last 25 years (Figure 4).
Weak El Nino
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1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 1989 1990 1992 1993 1995 1996 1998 1999 2001 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2011 2013 2014
Flooding Harvest Fail
Figure 4. Yearly drought and flooding areas of paddy field during 1989-2014 (source: Susanti, 2015)
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The extent of paddy field areas affected by drought and parched during weak El- Nino was caused by so many farmers being desperate and doing gadu because the rain still fell down eventhough insufficient. Similarly, it also happened in moderate El Nino in 2003. A similar incident also occurred in the 2015 drought. This was preceded by a mild magnitude El-Nino in January 2015 characterized by anomalous sea surface temperature by less than 0.8oC. In May 2015, the El-Nino magnitude turned into moderate with temperature anomalies of more than 0.8oC and less than 2.0oC. In August 2015, El Nino magnitude became strong with anomalies of more than 2.0oC. Rapid changes in the magnitude of El Nino cause the plants in the fields facing drought. Until the beginning of August 2015, the paddy field areas affected by drought and parched in Lampung and South Sumatra, across Java and South Sulawesi, covered a total area of approximately 195.488 and 17.394 ha, respectively. Estimated loss from the seven provinces reached 548.167 ton. In addition, the El Nino occurrence will also cause the postponement of planting time for about thirty to fifty days of normal (Balitbangtan, 2015). In any condition, droughts and floods always occur in every season. These occurrences are just in case and not always associated with climate change. However, Figure 5 below shows that during El-Nino, the land areas affected by drought increase up to 3-5 times more than normal and the La-Nina increases flooding areas by 50-150% (Boer, 2009). Three times drought frequencies on paddy plantation in Java within 4 years and generally increase sharply in El -Nino years. Two until three times flood frequencies on paddy plantation
within 4 years and generally increase sharply in La-Nina years
DroughtArea (ha)
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Figure 5. Monthly drought and flooding areas of paddy field during Normal and Anomalous Climates 140
According to the report by Directorate of Plant Protection, DG of Food Crops, decrease in yield due to the damages by plant pests (OPT) is not more than 1 % (or less than 400,000 tons of rice) every year. Yield reduction due to pest attack usually occurs during rainy season. Yield losses due to pest attack sometimes unnoticeably when the attack rate is mild or moderate. In fact, such attack will also lead to a decrease in yields and contribute to the figure of 1%. Based on data from the period of 1815-2012, there were four forms of threat disasters related to climate change a.o. floods (38%), landslides (18%), whirlwinds (18%), and droughts (13%) (BNPB, http://dibi.bnpb.go.id; SNC, MoE, 2010).
Impact Risk and Scenario Increased air temperatures directly affect on respiration, transpiration (water demand), and pests threat which then affect crop productivity, fruits/seeds ripening, and yield quality. Increased temperatures nationwide would decrease food production (rice) nationally from 10.0 to 19.5% over the coming 40 years, while each increase in the temperature by at least 1°C would reduce rice yields by 10 % (Peng et al., 2004). Crop yield simulation models for 2025 and 2050 show that the increase in air temperature by 0.5 and 1.0oC is potential to cause a decrease in rice production in West, Central, and East Java Provinces by 1.8 and 3.6 million tons in 2025 and 2050, respectively. If the increase in CO2 concentration is taken into account, the production declines using SRES A2 and SRES B1 scenarios are 33.9 & 59.6; and 383.0 & 888.2 thousand tons, respectively (Boer et al., 2011). Due to temperature rise and land conversion, there will be a decline of rice production in Java in 2025 and 2050 (compared to current production rate) of +6 and >12 million tons, respectively. If the CO2 concentration is taken into account, the decline in rice production in Java in 2025 and 2050 are slightly lower, at around 5 and 10 million ton, respectively. If assumed that there is no conversion of paddy fields in Java, then the negative effect of temperature rise on rice production can be eliminated by increasing the index of rice cultivation. Furthermore, if the paddy field conversion still occurs at a rate of 0.77% per year, then the effort to increase the planting index in order to reduce negative impacts of the increase in temperature in 2025 is no longer effective, especially for the districts in Central Java.
The simulation models also illustrate the toughest conditions (if the CO2 effect is eliminated, the land conversion still occurs, and a fixed IP), then to be able to maintain rice production at the current level is by increasing the productivity level from 5.0 to 6.1 t/ha in 2025 and to become 8.5 t/ha in 2050 (Boer et al., 2011). Without mitigation and land conversion remains at the minimum level, then the efforts of adaptation and threat mitigation on food security are to open new paddy fields (in outer islands) and maximize IP coupled with an increase in productivity of at least 6.3 t/ha. Results of simulation and spatial analysis conducted by Isfandiari et al. (2012) using the Geographic Information System (GIS) show a significant area of flooded rice fields due to sea level rise. Sea water level (SWL) rise by 0.8 m which occurs in normal tidal condition is estimated to inundate up to 11 km from the coast and cover about 11.032 ha or 8 % of paddy fields in Indramayu. SWL rise by 1.8 m occurring at the highest tidal condition may inundate as far as 16 km from the coast and cover about 28.098 ha rice fields. SWL rise by 2.4 m to
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occur during extreme condition and then followed by La-Nina and Tropical Cyclone may inundate as far as 17.5 km from coast and cover 34.747 ha rice fields. Impacts of sea water level (SWL) rise are the increased salinity of groundwater and inundation on some coastal lands. Increased soil salinity into 3.9 and 6.5 dS/m will reduce rice yield by 25 and 55% (Zeng and Shannon, 2000). Linear decline in production by 10% due to increased salinity 1-2 dS/m. Paddy field areas threatened by salinity and sank in the northern coast Java, Sulawesi, Kalimantan, Sumatra, and Nusa Tenggara are each estimated of about 292,000-400,000 (3.7%); 78.701; 25.372; 3,170; and 2,123 ha, respectively. The most serious threat due to land shrinking occurred in West Java by lowering production to 16,000 ton/year. Even in Karawang and Indaramyu, shrinkage and degradation of productive rice fields in coastal areas are potential to reduce rice production by about 300.000 ton, if the increase in sea water level reaches > 1 m (Boer et al., 2010). Research results by Foerster et al. (2011) showed that the sea water level rise by 1- 2 m causes losses of total harvested area in West Java, Central Java, East Java, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Lampung, Banten, and South Sulawesi about 74,000 -165,000 ha or equivalent to a loss in rice production of about 238,650 to 532,125 tons. The figure is equivalent to the state loses its ability to provide rice to 1.8 to 3.9 inhabitants a year. The rise of sea water level will remain persist, as shown by the following data : the rise due to subsidence in Jakarta is about 18.0 cm/year (National Geographic Indonesia, 2015) and in Semarang is about 7-8 cm/year (Tempo online, 2013).
180000
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Province Figure 6. Decline in rice production due to increased sea water level
PUBLIC AND GOVERNMENT RESPONSES
General Responses and Policies Since the beginning, Indonesia has been very responsive to the climate change issues and mitigation, a.o. by always actively participating in the discussions relating to the prevention of climate change on various forums, both regionally and internationally. Indonesia has ratified the Kyoto Protocol through Law No. 17/2004 which shows the government's attitude and policy to voluntarily willing to reduce GHG emissions into a significant level until
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2020. Nationally, such responses could be seen on many different approaches and regulatory policies, both related to institutional and program aspects. In context of mitigation, the government has established a National Action Plan for Climate Change Mitigation (Presidential Instruction 61/2011 and 71/2011) and Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan (RAN API), especially Agriculture and Food. Mainstreaming the climate change issues are set sectorally. Both forms of the action plan outlined in various programs are: (a) reducing the impact of climate change on development and economic growths, (b) improving production capacity and the real sector to offset the impact of climate change on every sector, particularly on agriculture, and (c) adjusting the consumption system (especially food) and increasing community ability in adaptation.
Direction and Strategy of Agricultural Sector Beddington et al. (2012) suggested some holistic approaches (adaptation and mitigation) in the context of food security by expanding the safe spaces in interconnection of climate and food systems (Figure 7), through three strategies : (a) do adaptation and improvement of productivities and efficiency in food production through cultivation techniques, (b) lower greenhouse gas emissions in order to reduce the threats of climate change (in the long-term), and (c) reduce food demand through diet and/or diversification programs with local/adaptive food and reduce food wastes.
Expansion of safe spaces through understanding Decrease Food interconnection between climate and food systems. Demand through Source : Beddington et al. (2012 diet and lowering wastes Impacts of Agriculture on Climate Change
Food Needs Lower GHG Safe emission Space Maximum Food Production Amount of of Amount Food Currently we are beyond safe space and under food deficiency situation Adaptation, yield Low Extreme and efficiency Climate Change increases
Figure 7. Strategy to expand safe spaces in relation to climate and food systems Based on climate risks, vulnerabilities, and impacts on the agricultural sector (especially the food, without neglecting mitigation aspects), adaptation efford should become a major concern in facing climate change. Food security is a top priority and urgency. The threats of climate change also coincide and are sometimes in association with various problems and obstacles (both biophysical and socio-economic) in the development of the agricultural sector. Based on the problem complexities, vulnerability level, and exposure of agri-food sector, the adaptation efford should not be limited on technical aspects only but also non-technical aspects, especially in the context of community development, policy, and regulation.
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In the technical aspects, it is necessary to develop a variety of innovative and adaptive technologies which are location-specific in many different scales and agro-ecosystems. Its main strategy is the development of innovative technologies in terms of utilizing local resources and developing bioindustry with respect to : a) Exploration, exploitation, or utilization and engineering of agricultural genetic resources through assembling high yielding varieties and superior adaptive seed lines. In addition, these activities should be in line with the protection and conservation aspects. b) Optimization and efficiency of land and water resources utilization, either through intensification approach by applying innovative technologies in managing resources (land, water, and fertilizer, etc.) or extension approach based on governing the lands wisely and sustainably, including the efforts to utilize and rescue degraded and abandoned lands. c) Carbon optimization and efficiency by maximizing CO2sequestration and absorption by plants, and optimizing use and recycle of agricultural biomasses or wastes, either through developing environmentally friendly farming models with blue economic base or through developing bioindustry. Each strategy should be supported by adaptive technology components such as superior varieties adaptive to climate stress and its derivation impacts, or cultivation technologies as well as the development of various technological processes. Synergism of these three strategies is done through packaging various farming models (farming systems) which are resilient and climate smart, in the context of adaptive and mitigatif in the form of low-emission or efficient carbon farming model, such as Integrated Management of Crop and Resources (PTT), Carbon Efficient Farming Systems (ICEF), Crop-Livestock Integration System (SITT), System of Rice Intensification (SRI), Integrated Farming System of Dryland/Food Smart Vilage (SPLKIK/FSV). Double targets of the various farming models relate to the aspects of economic, farmers’ welfare, climatic change mitigation, and environmental sustainability under Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA), such as SPTLKIK or Food Smart Village (FSV), etc. CSA is a model or system of innovative farming that has high adaptability and flexibility for a variety of threats and risks variability and climate change and/or to address on land resources problems with the following indicators: 1. Low vulnerability or relatively small impact, either agronomically (production) or economically due to climate change stress. 2. Capable of utilizing resources and input efficiently, especially land, water, and production inputs (fertilizers, pesitisida, seeds, etc.). 3. Development of ecofarming based on green (or blue ??) economy or environmentally friendly agriculture, mitigative/low emissions (SITT, ICEF, SPTLK/FSV, etc.). 4. High productivity and quality, and capable of breaking productivity stagnation or leveling off. 5. Restorative character to be capable of rehabilitating and reclaiming degraded/ abandoned lands. 6. Implementation of frontier technology innovations integrated with simple or indigenous technologies. Based on the description above, it can be concluded that the government has responsed well to climate change, although for the period 2030 Indonesia has not set the contribution of agricultural sector to the effort of decreasing GHG emissions. Commitment of 144
reducing Indonesian GHG emission as listed in Intended National Determined Contribution (INDC) has not yet been formulated until this writing. The above description has also shown that people have not responded much on the issues of climate change. Climate change issues can be well understood by those with at least high school education level, although with a very limited number. The number of people who understand the issues of climate change will further increase on the people educated formally, such as training, courses, field schools and etc. on climate, agronomy, or water management. Therefore, the efforts of socialization, publication, and other press releases, as well as training and mentoring need to be more extensive. The topics on environmental management and climate change on school materials from primary school up to higher education also need to be defined in a more permanent legal framework, such as Law, Permendiknas, etc. Inadequacy of changing agents in society related to the issues of environment and climate change endanger the sustainability of blue life (blue environment and economic), healthy and sustainable. Latest examples are land and forest fires and their impacts throughout the 2015 dry season.
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Research Result in Last Decade and Outlook
State of the Art of Research and Development
Agricultural research in the context of diversity and climate change has actually been started since more than 25 years ago, especially since the establishment of the Center for Soil and Agro-climate Research in the 1990s and the Research Institute for Agro-climate and Hydrology in the 2000s. The existence of these institutions encourage to carry out agricultural research and development, both in reviewing and analyzing the symptoms, characters, exposures, and impacts of variabilities and climate change, as well as in assembling and developing agricultural technologies that are adaptive or tolerant against certain climate stress. Various data and information on climate, agro-climate, and water potentials as well as climate patterns and dynamics and diversity level and climate change in the context of agricultural interests have been produced. Agroklimat map of Java and Madura was produced in 1975 in cooperation with the Government of the Netherlands (Las, 1989). It was followed with other regions across Indonesia and with a variety of data, maps, and similar information. Since 2007, driven by the COP-13 in Bali and an increase in agricultural research and development activities focusing on climate change, research and development has been
carried out in the forms of consortium of climate change R&D for the agricultural sector (KP3I)
involving several institutions and universities. KP3I presents a variety of information related to analysis results on regional vulnerability and insecurity in food, identification/information about innovative technologies which are adaptive research, and road map strategy of agricultural sector to face climate change until 2020. Since the last few years, agricultural research and development has further extended to various aspects (not only technical, but also social, economic, policy, and regulation) and commodities (not only crops but also livestocks and animal diseases). One of the research and development aspects also very prominent is the development and management of land and
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water resources, a.o. peatland management, water management, and mitigation of droughts and floods, which are supported by the development of information systems, such as integrated KATAM, etc. Besides the technology of land and water management, most prominent technology adaptive to climate change is various superior varieties of food crops (rice and secondary crops) adaptive to climate change, both in terms of resistance to drought, flood or inundation, and resistance to salinity, pests, and specific extreme environment in association with climate change. In line with research and development of land and water management, many scintist taking into account and focun on the biggest part of water transport into the atmosphere is provided by land surface through an evaporation and transpiration. Most of study result about water budget or moisture balance which have connection with global climate phenomenon (Pitman et al ., 1999), water and heat flux (Douville et al ., 1999), water storage in basing (Cao et al ., 2002) and crop requirement and water use (Lane et al ., 2004; van Dijk et al ., 2004) were reported only for top soil layer or interaction between soil surface and atmospheric boundary layer. They studies did not include some important factor, such as characteristic in eacj a soil horizon and vegetation in land surface (surface roughness). To puzzle their research, Syahbuddin and Yamanaka (2006) investiged a soil depletion from four soil layer based on an actual environment of soil horizon characteristic, where saturated soil hydraulic conductivity and soil depth is varies for each soil type and layer. This resaech in Aldosol soil, Kototabang, West Sumatera found that for the application of irrigation in dry season is better directly into first (0-15 cm) and third (58-86 cm) layer of soil. However, during wet season, no need to give irrigation due to soil gain water from first layer till third layer continuously, Table 1. Table 1. Pattern of delta soil water fluctuation in three soil profiles
Soil Dry Pattern Wet Pattern Layer H-03 H-12 H-13 H-23 S-12 S-13 S-23 S-03 First - - - + + + - + Second - - + - + - + + Third - + - - - + + + Note: H-03: water losses from all of layers; H-12: from the first and second layer; H-13: from the first and third layer; and H-23: from the second and the third layer. S-12: gain water into the first and second layer; S-13: into the first and the third layer; S-23: into the second and third layer; and S-03: all of layers gain water.
Technology Adaptation and Its Adoption Base of adaptation technology is use of high yielding varieties that are resistant to drought, submergence, and salinity; adjusted to time and cropping patterns, and development of water and land management technologies. Since more than two decades, Balitbangtan has released several early maturing and drought tolerant rice varieties, begun with Dodokan varieties in the 1980s followed by Silugonggo, Situ Bagendit, Situ Patenggang, Impari-1, Impari-12, Impari- 13, Impari-10, etc. Submergence-resistant rice varieties are Impara-3, Impara-4, Impara-5, GH-TR-1, IR-69502-on, and several other strains. Likewise, salinity tolerant varieties closely related to heavy metal poisoning (especially Fe and Al) are Way Apo Buru, Margasari, Lambur, Banyuasin, Indragiri, and promising lines of TS-1 and TS-2.
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Adjustment on time and planting pattern is a very strategic effort to approach food crops adaptation, particularly to reduce or avoid risks due to the shift in seasons and changes in rainfall patterns caused by climate change. Since 2007, climate information system has been developed gradually and then it has been evolved into Web-based Integrated Calendar of Cropping System. The system currently has become main ICON to anticipate climate variabilities and changes on food crops. This system contains more than 10 information types, including the threat of disaster, various recommended technologies, input needs, and standing crop. The forms of innovation in water management to face climate variability and change are ponds, long storage, trench dams, jointly wells, capillary irrigation, drip irrigation, and intermitten irrigation, etc. All of technologies or innovations aim to conserve water and utilization of the rainy season water in the dry season and/or to utilize the very limited availability of water efficiently and to increase the value of water utilization. To face climate change, the integrated and environmentally friendly agricultural farming system models are based on optimal/efficient use of input and resources with minimum environmental risk and low GHG emissions. An integrated and environmentally friendly farming has many derivations such as Carbon Efficient Agriculture Systems (ICEF), Sustainable Bioindustry Agriculture, Food Smart Village, etc. Adoption rate of these technologies are very diverse and the rate for superior varieties is faster than other technologies. Besides the problem in the dissemination system of technology information, the adoption rate of an invention or the rate of a technology to become innovation is determined by several factors, such as: the advantages/reliability and technical performance of the technology, logistics readiness, and socio-economic factors and farmers’ eskernalitas. Agus et al (2015) formulated that several step of adaptation to climate change, especially according to the dinamic physic, chemic, and bilological of soil, Tabel 2. Table 2. Climate change variables, the effects on soil and adaptation approaches
Climate change variables Effects on soil Adaptation approaches Temperature rise Increased microbial activities Mulching with plant residues that potentially lead to and regular recycling of increased carbon emissions organic matter to maintain and soil aggregate breakdown high soil organic matter content Unpredictable weather Uncertainty in the amount and Weather prediction, e.g. using timing of soil water availability cropping calendar and hence uncertainty of planting date Extremely high rainfalls Increased runoff, high erosion Improvement of infiltration by water, high rate of soil capacity, reduction of slope nutrient leaching steepness and slope length, reduction of rain drop kinetic energy using cover crop and mulch, increase soil organic matter content, improvement of drainage systems, and construction of water retardation systems Low rainfall and long dry Soil dryness, cracks and Water harvesting, mulching, season surface sealing because of organic matter application, high evapo-transpiration
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irrigation, increased water holding capacity Sea level rise Salty water intrusion and Salt leaching, improving inundation causing salinization drainage, reducing and dispersion of soil evaporation (e.g. by aggregate mulching), applying chemical treatments and a combination of these methods
Research Outlook in Adaptation for Agriculture Development of the research on rice crop in relation to the impacts of climate change needs to pay attention to several factors such as climatic conditions or projection in Indonesia in the coming 15-25 years, particularly the factor to significantly affect to the agri-food, agricultural vulnerability level, direction and general strategies of adaptation. In addition, the most serious threat of climate change to food is drought and floods, and increased intensity of pest nuisance, especially due to El-Nino da La-Nina.
General directions and policies of adaptation are: a. to reduce the impacts or a decline in production due to climate change stress through increasing resistence /flexibility of farming systems and the farmers, technologies, etc., b. to develop or increase production capacity through innovation and utilization of genetic resources, optimization of land and water resources, and c. to reduce food demand (and encourage food diversification) by lowering the food demand on the commodities vulnerable to climate stress and/or wasteful of resources and inputs, otherwise develop local commodities and introduce the commodity resilient/resistant/ tolerant to stress and efficient. Achieving these three objectives should pay a serious attention on the aspects of economic, farmers’ welfare, climate change mitigation, and environmental sustainability with the main strategies as follows: a. Adjustment and development of farming systems resilient and adaptive to climate change, b. Assembly, development, and application of innovative technologies adaptive to climatic stress, c. Development and optimization of land, water, and genetic resources utilization, and food diversification. Based on the aboves, research outlook for the agri-food is based on the assembly and development of adaptive technologies on the basis of bioscience, land and climate dynamic, both basic and applied research to support the three main objectives and directions of adaptation (and mitigation) of climate change. It is understood that it should start from a "Science.Innovation.Networks" approach to produce superior invention adaptive to climate change. Bioscience base in the utilization and optimization of resources (land, water, genetic, and organic/biomass) is seen as the starting point of the development of resilient technologies and farming systems. The development of research networks and collaboration research (nationally and internationally), both under the block program and research consortium, especially in generating frontier technologies (bioscience and bio-engineering approach bases). The research or studies relate to the aspects of policy, regulation, and institution particularly in the context of adaptation and farmers empowerment.
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Various research studies on climate projections in Indonesian region affecting food crops farming (especially rice) can be used as a hypothesis in the research and development of rice study, namely: 1. Temperatures in most parts of Indonesia are estimated to increase about 1oC in 2050 (Susandi, 2007). 2. Rainfals of the peak summer in June-August and the peak rainy season in December- January in most parts of Indonesia are predicted to decline except in the northern part of the equator. 3. An increase in CO2 concentration of 75 ppm will increase the productivity by 0.5 t/ha, however, an increase in air temperature by 1oC causes a decrease in grain productivity by 0.6 t/ha. 4. An increase in night temperatures will lead to increase respiration, reduce sink, and the short period of growth, thus reducing the rate of seedling growth, leaf area development, stem elongation and grain filling (Peng et al., 2004). 5. Climate change (especially air temperature) will affect on pest attacks as shown by research results by IRRI (2004) as follows: pressing the natural enemies species of rice pests, redistribution and differential effect against pests, diseases, and natural enemies, loss of some species, selection of pests biotypes/pathotype diseases with different virulence, and changes in competitive interaction between plants and weeds By taking the above various assumptions and hypotheses into account, it can be determined the direction and objectives of developing of improved adaptive varieties to anticipate climate change. Climate projections indicating an increase in temperature require engineering in rice plants to be more tolerant to high temperatures. The rate of net fotosintat accumulation in rice plant belonging to C3 plants group tends to fall with raising air temperatures. Genetic engineering approaches are directed to change photosynthesis pattern of rice plant being as C4 plants by increasing photosynthesis rate to compensate for transpiration. The engineering opportunities as presented by IRRI researchers are with the following arguments: - C4 genes from corn plants have been successfully put into rice plants proven by some wild rice species having C4 character, - Syndromes of C3 and C4 are not strictly separated, - Although a little and almost undetectable, C4 enzymes are also found in C3 plants, - C4 patterns grow well in certain tissues of the C3 plants, such as green vascular tissue of rice grain suspected using C4 partial pattern, and - Wild rice turned out to have many anatomical shapes of C4 plants and contain C3 transition into C4. Research on adaptive superior varieties characterized by drought and salinity tolerances, low emissions, and early maturing needs to be further developed to improve its performance. In addition, it needs stronger efforts to maintain seed stocks because the seed quantity required in the future will be greater than today. Acclimatization and multi-location tests on the superior varieties also need to be continued to get high quality seeds. In addition to the above research results, assessment in vulnerability is currently concerned most by many parties. Vulnerability of the agricultural sector is heavily influenced by adaptation capacity, exposure, and sensitivity. Tim Kerentanan Balitbangtan (2015) conducted most recent study of vulnerability by incorporating climatic variable factors into
149 vulnerability calculation. Adaptation capacity variables include GDP of agricultural sector, school enrolment rate, road length based on surface condition, etc. Exposure and sensitivity variables are a.o. rice consumption, planted and harvested areas, poor percentage, and others. Vulnerability level is determined by using MIMIC (Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes) method. Spatial information on vulnerability by District in Indonesia is presented as follows. Figure 8 show that most of Indonesia territory is vurnerable, especially for Aceh, Bengkulu, East Java, West Kalimantan, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, West Sulawesi, North Sulawesi, South East Sulawesi, and Maluku provinces which are classified in extrem high and very high vurnerable.
LEGENDA Extreme high Very high High Moderate Low
Figure 8. Spatial information of vurnerability of food and climate risk
ADAPTATION PLANNING EXPERIENCES Risks on Agricultural Sector
Vulnerability of agricultural sector Vulnerability of agri-food sector to climate change is defined as the decline rate of biological/physiological capabilities of crops and livestocks due to reduced capacity of resources and infrastructure caused by climate change. Vulnerability level of agricultural sector is dynamic and multi-dimensional influenced by several factors, including level of exposure to danger or climate risk, sensitivity level of crops and farming systems, and adaptability associated with technical factors of socio-economic, demography, and culture. Qualitatively, vulnerability level of agri-food may be indicated also by the impacts.
Research results of KP3 I team (Estiningtiyas et al., 2014) showed that there are 15 provinces indicating an increase trend in climate risk with food insecurity level of moderate (6 provinces) to high (9 provinces), and the main determinant factor is socio-economic, infrastructure, and resources with a high level of consumption. High vulnerability level of the agricultural sector (especially food) to climate change is caused by several factors, a.o.:
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(a) Biophysical conditions of agricultural resources (land and water) are very fragile, degraded, and limitated. There are also some damages on agricultural infrastructure, especially irrigation and farm roads (b) Biological properties of food crops (mainly annual crops) are very sensitive to biophysical and biotic stresses (climate, water, and soil nutrient, pest, etc.). (c) Less sustainable of farming systems and patterns due to irrational and un-balanced management on carrying capacity of the resources, especially land and water. (d) Socio-economically, more than 55% of food crop farmers are smallholder with several limitations and the number also likely tend to increase. (e) Less elastic consumption pattern and distribution of food materials, unbalanced distribution between population and the natural resource potentials. The impacts of high vulnerability level of agricultural sector also compounded by low its adaptability to climate change are mainly due to: (a) low capability of people/farmers in managing climate risks, especially smallholders as the main food producers (b) variety of technical and social constraints in the adoption and application of adaptive technologies (c) in-effective and weak policies and programs to support the farmers in addressing the impacts of climate change, and (d) system of climate information, early warning threat, and technology information are not optimal yet.
Available Opportunities to Address Risk Main components to support climate change adaptation in the agri-food sector are agricultural technologies and management system, both cultivation and resources. Other factors very potential and determining are socioeconomic and culture, regulatory policies, and programs. Mitigation and conservation potentials. Besides as a victim, the agricultural sector is also very potential as solution (mitigation) of climate change and its impacts. There are three agricultural resources potential to reduce the climate change impact risks, namely plant resources, climate and water resources, and land resources. Plantation sub-sector with woody and perenial plant species (such as oil palm, rubber, coconut, cocoa, coffee etc.) can be absorbent and sequestration of CO2 from the air. In addition, several types of plantation crops also work well in conserving soil and water, such as cloves, coffee, spices, and nutmeg grown on sloping lands. Adaptation technologies of food crops are shown through superior variety technologies with specific adaptability, and technologies of cultivation and resources (land and water) management. Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and Development (IAARD) has resulted in several new superior varieties (VUB) tolerant to inundation, drought, salinity, and specific pest; and also low-emission varieties (Table 3). By planting the VUB varieties, it is
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expected that crop productivity decrease is not more than 25% when facing extreme natural stress. In cultivation aspect, the technologies potential to reduce climate change risks on agriculture are application of Jajar Legowo 2:1 cropping system, intermittent or Alternate Wet and Dry (AWD) water management, balanced fertilization (based on testing using PUTS, PUTK, and PUTR test kits), integrated pest control, and good post-harvest handling. In addition, use of solar radiation as an energy source substitute to reduce CO2 emissions, such as solar energy for PRS water pump (Solar Radiation Pump) integrated with its irrigation designs and layouts.
This irrigation system is estimated to be able to reduce CO2 emissions by 11,885.85-28,526.04 ton/pump/year . Table 3. VUB types adaptive to the dynamic of climate change
No Stress/Character Varieties/Lines A Rice 1 Very short age Inpari (11, 12, dan 13)
2 Tolerant to : Dodokan, Silugonggo, Situ Bagendit, Situ - Drought Patenggang, Limboto, Inpago 5, Inpari (1, 10, 11, 12, 13). - - Submergence/flood Inpara 3, 4 and 5, Inpari 30 Ciherang –sub1 - Salinity Margasari, Dendang, Lambur, Lalan, Indragiri, Air Tenggulang, Banyuasin. - High Temperature (35oC) N22 (Germ plasm)
3. Resistant to : - Brown Plant Hopper (WBC) Inpari (2, 3, 4, 6, dan 13) - Bacterial blight of rice Inpari (1, 4, 6, dan 11) (Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae)
4. Low GHG Emission IR-64, Ciherang, Way Apo Buru, Inpari 1, Batanghari, Tenggulang, Banyuasin, Punggur B Maize
1 Tolerant to Drought Lamuru dan Sukmaraga. Bima 2, Bima 3, Bima 4, Bima 20, Bima 9, dan Bima 14
2 Wide Adaptability Bisma 3 Short Age Gumarang
C Soy bean
1 Toleran to drought Dering 2 Short Age Gema dan Grobogan
Source : Balitbangtan, 2011 One concept of integrated farming system for limited water conditions under extreme climate due to climate change and or in dry areas (such as dry land) is Food Smart Village
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(FSV) model based on exploitation, exploration, and water distribution. FSV main pillars are (1) Identification of potential sources of water and climate in a region, (2) Exploration and Exploitation of water resources supported with an irrigation network design to support sustainable water efficiency, (3) soil and water conservation, (4) agri-food diversification in the pattern of crop-livestock integration, and (5) Insect and pest management, zero waste, and nutrient balances (Syahbuddin, 2012; Sosiawan et al, 2013a; Sosiawan, 2013b; Sinar Tani, 2014).
Balanced Fertilization Quality seed IPM
Identification of Potential Climate and Soil and water Water Zero Waste conservati on Resources Integrated Food (Watershed Diversification skace – Plot) Water on crops- Resources livestock Model Adaptive to exploration systems •Tied by the and Climate Institutional Change exploitation • inforced by Local Wisdom Sustainable •Community- Irrigation or Water based Drainage Management Network Model Design Water Utilization Efficiency Model
Figure 9. Pillars and principle processes of Food Smart Village model (Syahbuddin, 2012)
Swamp land utilization during dry season. Long dry during extreme climatic conditions (due to El Nino) causes shrinkage in planted and harvested areas due to drought. However, an opposite condition occurs in fresh-water swampy land areas in which potential planted areas tend to extend. Nationally, fresh-water swampy land areas suitable for rice are currently about 1.1 million ha. Only 564,200 ha area is already planted with rice and only about 134,000 ha area has already been planted twice. Under El-Nino condition, potential land areas become 801,900 ha or equal to 237,700 ha increase. Potential addition of planted land areas are found in Lampung, South Sumatra, Riau, and South Kalimantan Provinces. In addition, swamp land also has unique advantages, namely a) more quickly recover and resilient to climate change because of its water availability, (b) harvest season occurs in July to September and on the same time most of irrigated paddy field are off-season, (c) rice products with low glycemic index are good for diabetics and the rice contains high Fe and Se, both required for the formation of red blood cells. Furthermore, Haryono (2014) states that farming activity on degraded peat land by implementing water conservation approach or Tabat technology succeeded to maintain water level, prevent fires, and improve the economy of surrounding community through harvesting and marketing inter crops such as tomatoes, corn, pineapple, and others.
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Mitigation of risk effects of climate change should simultaneously involve all the advantages and benefits of agricultural resources. An integrated approach among the opportunities such as plant/crop resources, genetic resources, and land and water resources is absolutely necessary to ensure sustainability of the obtained fortunes. More frequently uses of tolerant or adaptive varieties may cause them to be rapidly adopted because the varieties are relatively inexpensive and easy to obtain. While the efforts or techniques of utilizing other advantages of agricultural resources technologies may slower the adoption because they need costs, expertise, and capability of exploitation. Therefore, FSV approach with the support of the three advantageous aspects of resources and institutions, as well as reinforced the development of indigenous technologies more appropriately.
Reducing Socio Economic Risks
Climate insurance As described above, that the food crops sub-sector is the most vulnerable to climate change. This is compounded by the agricultural land ownership of only around 0.3-0.5 ha. Disruption to agricultural production will shake the farmer's household economy, which will reduce farmers’ interest to continue cultivating food crops and henceforth it can be annoying food security in especific and national security in general. This situation caused the enactment of Law No. 19/2013 on Protection and Empowerment of Farmers, and Article 37 says : Central and Local Government shall protect small farmers through agricultural insurance. Under this Act, in 2015 the Ministry of Agriculture budgeted Rp 100 billion for agricultural insurance with a target area of 1 million ha. The government subsidizes Rp 144.000/ha/growing season (80%) of the premium amount of Rp 180.000/ha/growing season. In this case, farmers bear only self premium of Rp 36.000/ha/growing season (20%). Insured value is Rp 6 million/ha/season when crop failure (perched) (Irianto, 2015a). Along with the increasingly strategic role of agricultural insurance, some proposals such as price and production insurances have grown. The proposals also give hope for farmers, as presented by Irianto (2015b). For the price insurance, the insured value is given when there is a difference of a commodity price in the market and farm level. As for production insurance, the insured value is given when production level having jointly been established is not achieved due to various natural disturbances. In addition to the two insurance models above, there is another insurance model called Weather Index Insurance (WII), which is still under research and studies in some selected locations. This research is same as researchs of Agricultural Insurance which had been done by Pasaribu (2009b) in some districts in Bali, Central Java and North Sumatera. Thinsurance WII already takes into account the impact of climatic factors on the production as the scale of insurance premium payments which were approved by farmers and insurance companies (Estiningtyas et al., 2013). Pasaribu (2009b) found that was about 90% the farmers want to have an agricultural insurance, only 10% of the farmers did not want it. This research was conducted in two villages of Simalungun district.
Some definitions of Weather Index Insurance (WII) based on Manuamorn (2010) are as follows : 1. Index insurance policies pay on the basis of an objective and exogenous index, not on the measurement of the real loss experienced
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2. Payouts are made based on the realization of index value, according to a pre-agreed payout scale
3. Weather indexes are mostly used for agriculture due to high correlation between weather events and crop production losses 4. In agriculture, the classical example is a “rainfall index” aimed at protecting farmers’ revenues from drought.
Some of WII choices are : 1. Some challenges with traditional insurance have made it tough to implement 2. High transaction cost – high premium price (e.g. reaching rural areas) 3. Recent innovation-Index Insurance 4. Insures a weather/climate index not crop, e.g. provide payout if there is drought 5. Cheap, “easy” to implement, good incentives 6. Simple Drought Index Insurance Design: 7. Partial Payout if rainfall below “Trigger” 8. Full Payout if rainfall is below “Exit” Weather Index Scales used as shown in the foolowing Figure.
Trigger Exit
Figure 10. Weather index insurance
Figure 11. The contract starts paying a proportional indemnity below 425 mm and up to 200 mm (Sources: Manuamorn, 2010)
Besides the above efforts, such as in research and development as well as climate insurance, the government also has tactical operational efforts driven through Special Effort Program (UPSUS). List of UPSUS activities is in below.
A. Conducted programs for anticipating floods/droughts: 1. Provided 21.953 units water pump since November 2014 2. Built/rehabilitated physically 1.5 million ha of tertiary irrigation 3. Established Brigade handling of floods and droughts
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4. Provided pumps, built water reservoir, dam-trenches, shallow groundwater wells in Demak, Pati, Grobogan, Cirebon, Indramayu, Klaten, Sragen, Boyolali, Kendal, Temanggung, Trenggalek, Sidoarjo, Sumbawa, Aceh Barat (to save 114,707 ha) 5. Built 1,000 shallow groundwater wells in the district of South Central Timor 6. Normalization of primary/secondary/tertiary channels
B. On going activities on floods/droughts: 1. Build 1.000 ponds/dams and canals/long storage for rain harvesting 2. Build 1.000 shallow groundwater wells in Grobogan district 3. Refocusing 2015 Budget of Rp 500 billion to handle drought 4. 2015 DAK focusses on Embung, DAM-Ditch and shallow groundwater wells, especially in endemic areas of drought (an average of five years of exposure: 182.251 ha) and rainfed paddy fields. 5. Normalization Implementation of primary / secondary / tertiary channels by PUPR and TNI
In addition, the Government has also been present within the community in anticipating climate change through budgeting schemes for the implementation of more massive and realistic adaptation measures. The measures include: 1. Provision of Agricultural machinaries : 13.546 units only in 2014 and 63.793 units in 2015. 2. Provided budgets for rehabilitating Tertiary Irrigation Network, which were for 500.000 ha only in 2014 and for 2,6 million ha in 2015. 3. Budgets for land optimization : in 2014 only for 200.000 ha and for 1,05 million ha in 2015. 4. DAK of around Rp 2,58 trillion in 2014 increased into Rp 4,0 trillion in 2015.
Local Wisdom to Anticipate and Overcome Climate Change Population pressure demands the availability of natural resources (agriculture), land/soil, and water along with socio-economic-cultural aspects to become components and determinant factors toward adaptability. Slowly happening climate change is also in line with the dynamics and degradation of other ecosystem components, especially land, water, etc. The desire to meet the needs of individuals, families, and next generation causes more massively pressuse and exploitation on soil, land, and water. Common symptoms of the dersire are land degradation and conversion of irrigated land, etc. to be booming. Because of less available agricultural lands, particularly decreasing and more expensive irrigated lands, land degradation and conversion spreads into rainfed and dryland areas with variative magnitudes and types of damage levels. Globally, degraded land is about 40% and 9% of which is permanently degraded and irreversible (Bossio et al., 2009). The above situation encourages various people’s efforts to face climate change and overcome its impacts in order to survive. Local wisdom or instinct ability in the form of knowledge or traditional technologies (indigenous knowledge and technology) has become the nature of human. These natural habbits come up with ideas and attempts to adapt or escape from problems. Similarly, in terms of dealing with the dynamic of climate change, local wisdom and its derivations also arise.
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In addition, several knowledge, technologies, and approaches also have come up from human civilization that are continue to grow. They are believed to be capable of reducing impacts on natural damages or degradation, including climate change. However, this hypothesis is not always true. The green revolution, for example, had encouraged development and use of various rice varieties responsive to fertilizer, inorganic fertilizer technology and irrigation. Besides its very significant impact on production, it turned out following various technology components also caused new problems such as environmental damages due to poisoning harmful chemicals, pest and disease resistance to insecticides, and growing human power on exploitation of natural resources. Indonesia, a country with ethnic and cultural diversity, has a greater opportunity to adapt to climate change by relying on local specific wisdom of each area. Such local wisdoms include: (1) To determine planting time or time to start planting which are Pranata Wangsa in Javanese community, Parlontara in Bugis, Tudang Sipulung in South Sulawesi, Wariga in people of Aceh, Bulan Berladang in Kalimantan Dayak, Nyale in Sasak people of Nusa Tenggara, and Sasi in Maluku society. (2) There are several local varieties of rice, corn, and others with the characteristics of tolerant to drought and or immersion, such as Siam-Siaman rice type in Kalimantan, sticky corn in NT, shallot in Central Sulawesi, Topo shallot in North Maluku, Keta Monca shallot in Bima NTB, Rainbow Durian in Papua, Montong and Petruk durians in Central and East Java, Kendang Durian in Lampung, Cilamaya Durian in West Java, Pampakin in Kalimantan, various types of mango, mangosteen, oranges, snake skin fruit, banana, grapes, avocados, guava, etc. (3) Some species of poultry and ruminants such as Bali Cow, Madura Cow, swampy buffalo in South Kalimantan, Lampung, Toraja; Deer, Garut goats, kacang goat, bekisar chicken, Cimeni chicken, local chicken, singing chickens, Alabio and Sidoarjo ducks, grouse, doves/pigeons, Maleo, and others are still in need of domestication process. (4) Similarly, some plantation crops such as Banda nutmeg, cloves in Maluku and North Maluku, Kemiri Sunan, castor and jatropha, Jelutung (local rubber of Swamp Land), PB 260, various types of coconut, and sago etc.are scattered throughout Indonesia. (5) Land and water management technologies that are environmentally friendly such as: Subak system, no tillage, patio bench, rorak, including cropping patterns of plantation crops on sloping land as done by Maluku and North Maluku communities, etc. The above facts show that Indonesia is very ready to face climate change, in terms of resources. However, there are still several steps to do that all available resources can be empowering for the community welfare. Under blue economic theory, many arguments say that local wisdom can create development sustainability, although its turning point is still doubtful (Pauli, 2012). Moreover, the existence of local knowledge by techniques, natural resources support, institutions, organizations, and local leaders has been very rare to find in the field, getting away from the lives of rural, suburban, and urban people. Local wisdom eroded by economic values in individuals, groups, and larger community scales. However, in certain situation, local wisdom still retains a dominant role, as in Subak System in Bali. Various resource managements, such
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as the block in Kalimantan swamplands, Pranoto Mongso, Palontara and Tudang Sipulung have diminished their function. But many indications show that integration of local wisdom into modern technology will improve adaptation effectiveness. Research results by Stigter (2011, 2012) showed that former capabilities and experiences have never disappeared from farmers’memory, they keep learning to understand, and their expeciences will continue to grow when given new knowledge although not fully translatable. Therefore, the role of facilitation is very important in integrating the use of local knowledge with innovations or new ways. This step is to accelerate the implementation of local knowledge in agricultural systems. Moreover, the government’s policies, especially local government in promoting and utilizing local wisdom in adapting to climate change, also plays significant role. It is expected to be able to reduce the gap between local wisdom abundances and their implementation.
Road Map Strategy in Facing Climate Change Through the Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and Development in 2009 and revised in 2011, Ministry of Agriculture had published the Road Map Strategy of Agricultural Sector in facing climate change and the General Guidelines for climate change adaptation. These both publications contain the programs and action plans for climate change adaptation and mitigation of among its subsectors, including programs and advocacy and dissemination activities (IAARD, 2009 and 2011). Some remarks against both publications are: (1) the achievements of the carried out program and activities have not been well documented, (2) the achievement of climate change adaptation and mitigation has not yet been measured, (3) the Road Map has not been well communicated, and (4) important factor of its implementation is coordination among the sub-sectors and among the central, the provincial, and district/municipal governments. In general, the roadmap needed by agri-food on climate change adaptation and mitigation can be arranged in a well structured by considering some following components, namely : (1) As the main turning point, technologies should be defined clearly (2) Research and development in relation to social and technological issues (3) Technology enrichment and social engineering according to research results trusted to guarantee the target achievment more efficiently and massively. (4) Implementation of recommended technology models (5) Integration among institutions/agencies producing and implementing technologies (6) Monitoring and evaluation to assess the gap between targets and achievements According to IPCC (2014), adaptation to climate change can be facilitated through planning at the provincial/district level, early warning system, integrated water management, and agroforestry. In addition to be more focused and closer to the adaptation perpetrators, the road map of adaptation to climate change is better directed to the conservation of land and plant resources, genetic bank and seed system, productivity and production improvements, and disasters in agricultural sector, by considering , (1) increasing growth of population, (2) declining quality of land resources due to population pressure, and (3) frequent
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occurrences of unpredictable climate dynamics and liable to extreme. To date, the concept, policy, institution, operational technique, and function of disaster prevention and mitigation in the agricultural sector are very indispensable.
Prime Strategy for Agricultural Development: Bioindustry Agriculture Since long time ago, Indonesia has had a wealth of agricultural resources in order to achieve sustainable agriculture. There are three main pillars to realize sustainable agriculture (1) constitutional development vision to reach dignity, independence, equitability, and prosperity for the Indonesian people; (2) most of Indonesian people depend very much on agricultural sector, and (3) long-term development vision. Furthermore, these pillars are also used to achieve sustainable bio-industry agriculture through minimizing input from outside system. Development of Bio-industry Farming Systems is focused on achieving inclusive agricultural development being equitable and sustainable as well as ensuring synergy in food, energy, and water securities. Through the bio-industry agricultural system, it is expected to efficiently achieve self-sufficiency in agriculture and food in 2025-2029 (Biro Perencanaan, 2014). The issue of efficiency in agricultural resources utilization in the future is very important to continuously be disseminated in order to get better understanding by every agricultural development actor. Increasing total population followed by increasing food consumption causes tremendous pressure on availability and sustainability of existing natural resources. Efficient uses of agricultural resources are strategic ways in order to pass prosperous farm and other natural resources on to the next generation. It needs to continuously voice efficient farming in which the water, genetic resources, energy, fertilizer, and labour are utilized efficiently. This approach is also very closely related with the efforts of adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Because the agricultural resources (such as water, energy, and genetic resources) have long been utilized and are very important, so more frequent socialization of utilizing them efficiently seems to be much easier to do than voicing GHG emission reduction. GHG emission reduction is still abstract and indirect that it has not received adequate attention from the farming actors. Therefore, efforts to enhance community role in anticipating climate change should be done by socializing co-benefit values. In addition, it is important to raise co- benefit values in international talks and meetings to become party commitment and more important issues rather than just GHG emissions.
CONCLUSIONS Climate change is a phenomenon to changes in rainfall patterns, air temperature rise, and sea level rise. The process is still to be debated both nationally and internationally. In relation to this phenomenon, there are two group streams among the academic environment, researchers, and observers : a) those believe to climate change and b) those do not believe, that climate change is only influenced by the abundance of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. In the future, we will be facing the three above phenomena. Whether it is right or wrong, we have to prepare everything to anticipate climate change and continue to live
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along with making efforts to adapt to climate change. Beside that in the level of police maker and negosiator thoose issues of co benefit must be consider and to become main issue and target commitment for the parties. Since the 1980s, IAARD has started to notice and conduct research to create technologies adaptive to climate change. The technologies include developing adaptive varieties, soil and water conservation technologies, technology for water management and efficiency, fertilization efficiency technologies, sustainable peatland management technology, and so on. In terms of the technologies, there is no doubt in their superiority and reliability. In terms of adoption, however, the figure has not been encouraging. The use of superior varieties is the highest adoption rate. Therefore, creation of the technologies should also consider social characters and conditions of the prospective target technology, in addition to the level of convenience and easiness of getting these technologies. Downstream acceleration of technologies should be conducted through either socialization, mass media, field school, coaching, mentoring, or application test. The fundamental objectives of these dissemination approaches are to improve capacity building of individuals and community/farmers groups. Through this approach is also expected to gradually change on public responses and awarenesses on climate change. Beside that in near future demonstration implementation technology in the field should be done in the area around 100 ha with participating approach and work together with province or district government and other potential stakeholder such as private sector and univesity. Where this site application technology is must become a duty for senior researcher who becomes associate professor researcher (Syahbuddin and Runtunuwu, 2013). The next step is to foresee various indicators of climate change for the future periods (20, 30, 50 and even 100 years to come). Nationally, this approach has not much been conducted. Through research on projection of climate parameters using various scenarios of GHG rises, it may come up with the dynamics of climate change measurably in the future. Thus the impacts of climate change on agricultural development could be well anticipated. The research on climate projections is also very useful in preparing the Early Warning System. Therefore the planning process of agricultural development will be anticipatory and specific location. Moreover, through integration approach of Remote Sensing and GIS technologies, resolution of the specific locations can be driven from the Sub-District up to national level (Syahbuddin et all ., 2014). With this integration technology, there will have possibility also to create mapping of agroecological zone vurnerability based on production and consumption system as depict in Figure 12 (Syahbuddin, 2014)
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Population and Food Need
Food Crop Production
Food Vulnerability Level
. Figure 12 Agroecological zone for vurnerability study of food in facing to climate change (Sources: Syahbuddin, 2014)
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