STRENGTHENING AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION CAPACITY IN COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE Haris Syahbuddin and Irsal Las Senior Researcher Indonesian Center for Agricultural Land Resources Research and Development WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE? Definition and Prime Factor of Climate Change Climate change is a necessity phenomenon and occurrence on the basis of (a) the climate as a natural phenomenon which is indeed very dynamic and (b) caused by changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) which is also very dynamic. Increasing concentrations of GHGs are very closely related to the human activities involving more fossil energy to cause the increase in GHG emissions. Therefore, a significant rise in the GHG concentration occurred since the industrial revolution in the late 18th century has had an impact on global warming. Since the era there has been an increase of greenhouse gas concentrations from about 250 ppm to about 390 ppm as a result of an increase in the rate of GHG emissions which consist of CO2, CO, CH4, N2O, Cr, etc. Currently, the average air temperature has risen from 23.7 to 24.2oC which ultimately resulted in elevating sea levels, more frequent extreme climate occurrences or climatic anomalies, turmoil and shifting rainfall patterns, etc. In addition, observatory and historical data in many locations show that the increase in surface temperatures (both land and sea) is very diverse and determined by several factors, however, the largest amplify occurred in the northern polar region. The rise in global average temperature has led to the changes in the global climate system that has impacted various elements of the climate and its derivations. In the agricultural sector (food sub sector in particular), the very significant impacts of climate change (besides the increase in air temperature) are the change in rainfall patterns and more frequent extreme climate events or climatic anomalies, specifically due to the El-Nino and La-Nina. An increase in GHG emissions has been caused by a wide range of human activities, especially in the sectors of industry, energy and transport, and parts of agricultural and forestry sectors. In Indonesia, the main causes of changes in greenhouse gas emissions are dominated by forestry and land management changes (land use change and forestry, LUCF), industry and energy, transport and agriculture. In addition to peat land management, contribution of agricultural sector to GHG emissions is relatively small, namely 5.4%, while contributions of other sectors such as energy and electricity, transport, various types of industry, population, and use of commercial goods are by 42, 24, 20, and about 14%, respectively. Activities in agricultural and forestry sectors are the dominant factors to cause the increase in GHG emissions, a.o. (a) the process of deforestation (land use change) that decreases the rate of carbon sequestration (due to less CO2 uptake by plants) from the air and ballast GHG emissions, as well as the new land opening especially peatland management, and (b) improved agricultural practices that have implied on GHG emissions, such as fertilization, wet farming systems (rice), increase population of ruminant livestocks, etc. Sources of emissions in the agricultural sector are given dominantly by LUCF and plantations 133 on peat (>65%) and then followed by paddy fields (24%) and livestock (9.3%) (SNC, MoE, 2010). The above efforts to minimize GHG emissions can be classified as mitigation. Various mitigation efforts are to be continued in order to decrease GHG emissions along with adapting to the climate change itself. Combination of mitigation and adaptation to climate change should be done in parallel to accelerate emission reductions and increase agricultural production and resources efficiency, as well as to facilitate the easiness for stakeholders (in this case farmers) in adoption and understanding. The way is in line with the policies in agricultural sector which primarily prioritize or select adaptation as an effort to mitigate and adjust to increasing production. According to agricultural sector, increased production is an obligation to be met in order to keep pace with population growth and the needs of national and world for staple food. This paper is more focused on adaptation approaches to minimize the impacts of climate change on production of food crops (especially rice, corn, and soybeans) because of their short period of ages (only 60-120 days). The food crops are very vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns, temperature, sunlight, wind speed, soil fertility, water availability, and sea level rise. In addition, the food crops supply staple foods which greatly influence the life and sustainability. Recent Status of Global Climate Change and Indonesia Globally, the most prominent phenomenon of climate change is the increasing air temperatures on earth's surface, raising sea levels, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased frequency of extreme climate events, such as extreme air temperatures on the certain regions and time including the incidence of hurricanes and cyclones, and related disasters such as droughts, floods, landslides, etc. Various studies show that global average temperature has increased by about 0.85°C (with a range of 0.65 to 1.06°C) over 1880 to 2012 period. This value is slightly higher than the difference between the average values during the periods of 1850-1900 and 2003-2012 amounting to 0.78 (0.72 to 0.85)°C (IPCC, 2013). Such information further encourages care and attention as well as the importance of mainstreaming climate change in various development sectors, particularly with regard to agriculture and food security. The major impact of climate change is increasing a few degrees of the air temperature. According to SREX report published by IPCC (IPCC, 2012) that the increase in global average temperatures and climate change is also closely related to extreme conditions or climatic anomalies in several regions. Extreme temperature conditions to have more direct impact with short time lag of the life sectors (such as food sector) compared to slowly upward trend of average air temperature and its effects which goes even slower. Global target throughout the world community keeps the rise of air temperature in 2050 should not exceed 2°C. According to the Japan Meteorology Agency (2015), in 2015 the air temperature is the hottest one over the last 4,000 years, in which the temperature rise reaches 0.017oC (Figure 1). 134 Figure 1. Monthly global average temperature in July (source: JMA, 2015). The black thin line indicates surface temperature anomaly of each year. The blue line indicates their 5-year running mean. The red line indicates the long-term linear trend Real impact conditions of global climate change on the climatic dynamics in Indonesia are related to the dynamics and changes in rainfall patterns, shifting seasons, air temperature, and more frequencies of extreme climate or climate anomaly, especially the incidences of El-Nino and La-Nina and their trends. Climatic variations and changes in Indonesia are strongly influenced by three major factors controlling the global climate with different weights of time and impact scales among the regions. These three main factors are (a) ENSO (El Nino South Oscillation) phenomenon related to the atmospheric circulation and dynamics due to the dynamics of sea surface temperature in the South Pacific Ocean,(b) IOD (Indian Oscillation Dipole) phenomenon related to the air dynamic and circulation between Indian Ocean and Asia and West Africa continents, and (c) air circulation associated with the ITCZ (inter tropical convergence zone) which is the dynamic and circulation of air around the Equator or central region of Indonesia. The phenomena of ENSO in the Pacific Ocean and IOD in the Indian Ocean are closely linked with climate anomalies in Indonesia causing floodings and droughts (Hamada et al ., 2002; Wu et al ., 2003; Syahbuddin, 2006; Faqih dan Boer, 2014). Most types of rainfall in Indonesia are monsoonal which are basically similar to those once performed by Boerema (1938) dividing the Indonesian precipitations into monsoonal, equatorial, and local types (Aldrian et al ., 2003). The areas with monsoonal rainfall type occurring in most of southern region of Indonesia (especially Java and Nusa Tenggara) are the most sensitive places to be influenced by large scale climate control (especially in Indo- Pacific) that these areas are also very vulnerable to the impacts of global climate change. Over the past 100 years, the increase rate of average air temperature in Indonesia is not more than 1°C, as reported in the document of National Action Plan on Adaptation to Climate Change (RAN-API). However, if there is no global effort, the rate may keep increasing in the future. Based on a shorter period of data, it is obvious that the increase rate of average air temperature in Indonesia possibly reach more than 1°C as illustrated in Figure 2a and 2b (CRU, 2008; Boer, 2009). 135 Figure 2a. Trends of average annual temperatures in Indonesia (6° N -11°08' S and 95°' E - 141°45' E) based on CRU TS3.1 data (CRU, 2008) In addition, we also need to pay attention to decreasing tendency in air temperature after 2001 as shown in Figure 2a. In 1970s, air temperature decreases followed by increases in the next year could be repeated, in which the level of anomalous rise in air temperature is greater than that in the '70s era. 28.0280 o o July: 1,4 C/100 years 27.5275 Juli: 1,4 C / 100 thn y = 0.1424x - 9.9843 27.0270 26.5265 C o T 26.0260 25.5255 y = 0.1039x + 58.901 25.0250 o o JanuariJanuary:: 1,04 1,04C/100C years / 100 thn 24.5245 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Figure 2b. Temperature changes during rainy (January) and dry (July) seasons in Jakarta, 1860-2000 (Boer, 2009) Changing impacts in rainfall patterns due to climate change are not always the same and in harmony among regions.