2009 TASK FORCE SIS 495F, WINTER QUARTER 2009 U.S. RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA IN THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION THE REPORT OF THE COMMISSION ON UNITED STATES RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA TASK FORCE EVALUATOR: DR. DAVID KRAMER TASK FORCE INSTRUCTOR: DR. ROBERT HUBER TASK FORCE STUDENT COORDINATOR: MICHAEL JUSSAUME TASK FORCE MEMBERS: DEMI ANTZOULATOS, TONY BOHORFOUSH, KATHRYN BURNS, REGINALD GOOCH, ZONG GUO, ANTHONY HARTMAN, MEI LI MCNEIL, LUCAS OLSON, REBECCA POTTS, JULIE SHULTZ, RORY STANLEY, GARRETT STRAIN, AND ANDREA SWENSON Report of the Commission on United 2009 States Relations with Russia Contents Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... 4 GROUP REPORT OF THE COMMISSION ON UNITED STATES RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Overview by Michael Jussaume ................................................................................................................................ 6 Arms Control Subgroup Report by Tony Bohorfoush, AJ Hartman, Andrea Swenson ............................................................................. 12 Economy and Trade Subgroup Report by Bennett Guo, Lucas Olson, Garett Strain ........................................................................................... 26 Human Rights Subgroup Report by Demi Antzoulatos, Kathryn Burns, Meili Mc Neil, Rebecca Potts.................................................... 48 Regional Issues Subgroup Report by Reginald Gooch, Julie Shultz, Rory Stanley ...................................................................................... 70 INDIVIDUAL TASK FORCE PAPERS FROM PARTICIPANTS IN THE COMMISSION ON UNITED STATES RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA ...................................................................... 89 Arms Control……………………………………………………………………………………………90 Tony Bohorfoush, “Arms Control and the Obama Administration.” ................................................. 91 Anthony Hartman, “Making or Breaking U.S.-Russia Relations: The Potential for American ABM Policy to Change the World Dynamic.” ............................................................................................ 100 Andrea Swenson, “The Recent Decline in American Foreign Policy Towards Russia in Regards to Nuclear Arms Control.” .................................................................................................................... 115 Economy and Trade .............................................................................................................................. 129 Zong Guo, “Diversification of Energy Supply to Counter Russia’s Monopolization.” .................... 129 Michael Jussaume, “Challenges to Russian WTO Accession:Inclinations towards Protectionism in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis.” ........................................................................................ 151 Garrett Strain, “Russia’s Accession to the WTO: Implications and Challenges for the U.S.” ......... 165 Human Rights ....................................................................................................................................... 189 2 Report of the Commission on United 2009 States Relations with Russia Demi Antzoulatos, “A Managed Democracy: The Disappearance of Free Speech through the Weakening of Russian Civil Society.” .............................................................................................. 189 Katie Burns, “Until Parole or Death: Tuberculosis in Russian Prisons.”………………………….. 199 Mei Li McNeil, “Retreat of Religious Freedoms: The Russian Orthodox Church and the Rights of Religious Organizations.” ................................................................................................................. 224 Rebecca Potts, “Human Rights Violations Against Migrant Workers in the Russian Federation.” . 236 Regional Issues ..................................................................................................................................... 256 Reggie Gooch, “Efficacy of US Policy toward Russia Regarding Iran: 1993-Present.” .................. 256 Lucas Olson, “Taking a Look at U.S.-Russian Relations Through NATO ...................................... 269 Julie Shultz, “Contributing Factors to Increased Tensions between Russia and Georgia.” .............. 282 Rory Stanley, “Russia-Venezuela and U.S. Relations: Will There be Another Missile Crisis?” ..... 296 3 Report of the Commission on United 2009 States Relations with Russia Acknowledgements At this time, the commission would like to thank Professor Bob Huber, who in his attempt to be modest, named himself the “Grand Poobah” of the Task Force. However, “Grand Poobah” may not be a fitting title, as he truly deserves credit for his guidance, patience, and advice while helping us through this long and arduous process. It would not be an understatement to say that without his help and mentoring influence, the successful completion of the Report would not have been possible. The Editor and Task Force Coordinator would also like to take this time to thank all the members of the Task Force for their unflagging effort in this endeavor. All members of the task force remained both cooperative and receptive to the undoubtedly trying and bothersome comments and suggestions, both good and poor, made by the Task Force Coordinator over the course of the quarter. In addition, they were extremely gracious in putting up with the Coordinator’s numerous inadequacies, especially in the area of graphic arts, and remained pleasant to work and grow with until the very end. The chance to work with them all was both an honor and a pleasure. 4 Report of the Commission on United 2009 States Relations with Russia GROUP REPORT OF THE COMMISSION ON UNITED STATES RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA I. Arms Control Subgroup Report By Tony Bohorfush, Anthony Hartman, and Andrea Swenson II. Economy and Trade Subgroup Report Zong Guo, Lucas Olson, and Garrett Strain III. Human Rights Subgroup Report Demi Antzoulatos, Katie Burns, Mei Li McNeil, and Rebecca Potts IV. Regional Issues Subgroup Report Reggie Gooch, Julie Shultz, and Rory Stanley Editors: Bob Huber and Michael Jussaume 5 Report of the Commission on United 2009 States Relations with Russia Overview Michael Jussaume Over the course of the Bush Administration’s tenure in Washington, the United States’ policies were increasingly focused on issues of national security. This development was not surprising in that the Terrorist Attacks on September 11th sent shockwaves through America that both heralded and necessitated a change in American foreign policy. For better or for worse, the Bush administration chose to pursue a swift, aggressive, uncompromising, and increasingly unilateral stance on security issues and swiftly reached the decision to wage a global “War on Terror.” Indeed, the issue of Terrorism and the “War on Terror,” came to be the defining issue of the Bush Administration, and have strongly affected United States relations with Russia. The years following the September 11th attacks saw the International Standing of the United States decline as the United States largely spurned international organizations such as the UN, and struck out on its own to pursue a hard line and unilateral foreign security policy. In addition, apparent human rights violations such as in Guantanamo Bay further sapped United States credibility in the international arena. Though the impacts of events following the September 11th Terrorist Attacks are too numerous to discuss here, there is one in particular that is an important issue when considering future United States-Russia relations. I believe that the Iraq War, and the quagmire that ensued, displayed the limits of American power and influence in the world. Though much was made of 6 Report of the Commission on United 2009 States Relations with Russia American “hegemony” in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, such “hegemony,” if it existed at all, seems to have been short lived. The United States had limited success in gathering the support of allied nations in its “Coalition of the Willing,” and while being bogged down in Iraq, repeatedly showed its inability to force nations to accede to its demands. One of the best examples of this is Iran, which has refused American demands to refrain from developing nuclear technology, despite its limited military strength. In other words, though the United States may be the only remaining global power, it does not have the strength to unilaterally impose its will on other nations, and must in the future seek to work together and attempt to develop better relationships with important regional powers to reach its goals. Of course, one of the most important regional powers is Russia. Unfortunately for the United States, relations with Russia have soured in recent years. Indeed, Stephen Pifer, author of the policy paper, Reversing the Decline: An Agenda for U.S.-Russian Relations in 2009, claims that “U.S.-Russian relations have fallen to their lowest level since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.”1 The US-Russian relationship has been beset with numerous issues that have both increased tensions, and must be addressed for a fruitful relationship between the two nations in the future. Such issues include the perpetual issue of arms control and the expiring START treaty, the issue of the Eastern Europe missile shield and Anti Ballistic