viruses Article The Ecology of Nipah Virus in Bangladesh: A Nexus of Land-Use Change and Opportunistic Feeding Behavior in Bats Clifton D. McKee 1,* , Ausraful Islam 2 , Stephen P. Luby 3, Henrik Salje 4, Peter J. Hudson 5, Raina K. Plowright 6 and Emily S. Gurley 1 1 Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA;
[email protected] 2 Infectious Diseases Division, icddr,b, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh;
[email protected] 3 Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine Division, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA;
[email protected] 4 Department of Genetics, Cambridge University, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK;
[email protected] 5 Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801, USA;
[email protected] 6 Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA;
[email protected] * Correspondence:
[email protected] Abstract: Nipah virus is a bat-borne paramyxovirus that produces yearly outbreaks of fatal en- cephalitis in Bangladesh. Understanding the ecological conditions that lead to spillover from bats to humans can assist in designing effective interventions. To investigate the current and historical processes that drive Nipah spillover in Bangladesh, we analyzed the relationship among spillover events and climatic conditions, the spatial distribution and size of Pteropus medius roosts, and patterns of land-use change in Bangladesh over the last 300 years. We found that 53% of annual variation Citation: McKee, C.D.; Islam, A.; in winter spillovers is explained by winter temperature, which may affect bat behavior, physiology, Luby, S.P.; Salje, H.; Hudson, P.J.; Plowright, R.K.; Gurley, E.S.