Tayside and Central Scotland Transport Partnership
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11 RTP/15/21 TAYSIDE AND CENTRAL SCOTLAND TRANSPORT PARTNERSHIP 16 JUNE 2015 RAIL ISSUES UPDATE REPORT BY PROJECTS MANAGER This report updates the Partnership on progress made in promoting and implementing Rail Strategy priorities and on various rail issues. 1 RECOMMENDATIONS 1.1 That the Partnership :- (i) notes progress made in promoting and implementing Rail Strategy projects and remits officers to prioritise efforts on achieving delivery of an additional hourly service between Arbroath and Glasgow; (ii) agrees to write to the Minister for Transport and Islands requesting Scottish Government support for implementation of the Tay Estuary Rail service proposals on the Arbroath to Glasgow corridor and commitment to retention of cascaded rolling stock with Scotland; (iii) notes the findings of the Relocation of Invergowrie Station: Outline Business Case and agrees to defer further work pending progress on implementation of an hourly stopping service; (iv) agrees to receive a report at a future meeting on demand forecasting for new stations at Bridge of Earn/Newburgh; (v) invites the Chief Executive of Caledonian Sleeper to attend and present to the Partnership meeting on 15 September 2015; (vi) notes the various progress updates on rail franchising, rail services and Community Rail Partnerships 2 BACKGROUND 2.1 The Tay Estuary Rail Study (TERS) study (2009) identified a number of proposed enhancements to services and infrastructure, including an hourly stopping service between Arbroath and Glasgow, station enhancements at Gleneagles Station and further investigation of a business case for the relocation of Invergowrie Station to Dundee West (Report RTP/09/25 refers). 2.2 Tactran is working in partnership with Perth & Kinross Council, SEStran and Fife Council on a preliminary investigation to jointly consider the demand potential at proposed new/reopened rail stations at Bridge of Earn (Oudenarde) and Newburgh. 2.3 Investigation of the potential benefits of relocating Bridge of Allan Station to the south to improve access from the wider Bridge of Allan/Cornton population has been undertaken in partnership with Stirling Council. 2.4 A number of rail franchises have commenced recently: Abellio commenced operating the ScotRail franchise on 1 April 2015; Serco commenced operating the Caledonian Sleeper franchise on 1 April 2015; Inter City Railways, a Stagecoach/Virgin consortium, commenced operating the East Coast franchise on 1 March 2015. 1 2.5 There are improvement works scheduled as part of Edinburgh Glasgow Improvement Programme (EGIP) that will affect rail services in the Tactran area: Winchburgh Tunnel programmed for Summer 2015 and Glasgow Queen Street Station Improvements programmed for Spring/Summer 2016. 2.6 There are currently two designated Community Rail Partnerships (CRP) in the Tactran area: Highland Main Line CRP and West Highland CRP. An application is being developed for CRP status for the Strathallan area. 3 DISCUSSION Rail Strategy Tay Estuary Rail Service 3.1 The long term ambition for Tay Estuary Rail Service is to provide an additional hourly stopping service calling at Arbroath, Carnoustie, Monifieth, Broughty Ferry, Dundee, Invergowrie (Dundee West), Perth, Gleneagles, Dunblane, Stirling and Glasgow to complement the existing and future Aberdeen/Inverness to Glasgow intercity services. 3.2 The TERS Study identified a number of significant benefits in providing the additional hourly stopping service between Arbroath and Glasgow. The service: improves accessibility to rail transport for a significant portion of the population in the Tactran area. assists in achieving the Government objectives for transport interventions. provides excellent synergy with STPR project 23 Rail Improvements between Aberdeen and the Central Belt. provides a positive Benefit to Cost Ratio. generates forecast patronage of over 300,000 passengers/annum. requires low capital investment and focuses on making more efficient use of resources currently available. 3.3 In order to provide the additional hourly service, 3 Diesel Multiple Units are required. The TERS study identified the ScotRail refranchise in 2015 and the completion of EGIP in 2016, which will result in release of diesel rolling stock for use on other routes, as key opportunities to progress implementation of the TERS service. 3.4 The final Invitation to Tender (ITT) for the ScotRail re-franchise issued in January 2014, included reference to the TERS study. Tactran officers met all five companies invited to tender for the ScotRail franchise, including Abellio, to promote TERS service enhancements and other rail proposals and aspirations for the Tactran area. 3.5 Tactran officers have met with Transport Scotland and Abellio on several occasions since Abellio was awarded preferred bidder status in October 2014. It has become clear from these meetings and inspection of the Franchise Agreement and ScotRail Service Level Commitment that, despite TERS being referenced in the ITT, other than already committed projects such as EGIP and Highland Main Line (HML), no significant service improvements are currently planned or proposed in the Tactran area. 2 3.6 Passenger growth at stations on the Arbroath to Glasgow rail corridor has increased by over 20% in the period 2005/6 to 2013/14 and this rate of growth is set to continue if not increase over the next 10 years of the ScotRail franchise. It is understood that Abellio is aiming for 40% overall growth over the lifetime of the franchise. It is currently unclear what provision has been made by Abellio to accommodate this growth, other than replacing the intercity 170 units with High Speed Trains (HST) in 2018, which will provide some increase in seated passenger capacity. 3.7 Given the significant growth in rail patronage over recent years, coupled with Abellio’s aspiration to increase demand by a further 40% over the 10 years of the ScotRail franchise, it is considered that the additional passenger capacity which would result from introducing the TERS service proposals on the Arbroath – Glasgow corridor will be vital to accommodating projected passenger growth and rail demand on services running through and serving the Tactran region. It is essential that efforts are made now to retain cascaded rolling from implementation of EGIP in 2016 and introduction of HST’s in 2018 within Scotland, rather than lose this resource to other franchises. 3.8 The Partnership is therefore recommended to write to the Minister for Transport and Islands and the Chief Executive of Transport Scotland to request their support for implementation of the TERS proposals for service enhancements on the Arbroath to Glasgow corridor, including the retention of cascaded rolling stock within Scotland upon completion of the EGIP improvements, to enable strengthening and improvement of the Scottish rail network as envisaged by TERS and other proposals. Invergowrie Station Relocation: Outline Business Case 3.9 The relocation of Invergowrie Station to Dundee West was appraised as one of a number of station ‘overlay’ options to the rail service options in the original TERS (2009) study and performed strongest in terms of economic returns, integration and community accessibility. The study concluded that this option was only compatible with an hourly stopping service and that further work is required to fully understand the demand potential and locations from which patronage would be attracted. The TERS (2009) study was reported to Partnership meeting on 23 June 2009 (Report RTP/09/25 refers) at which officers were remitted to take forward the conclusions of the study. 3.10 This further work, as with all TERS studies has been taken forward by a Steering Group comprising Tactran, Transport Scotland, Network Rail and ScotRail, as an Outline Business Case for the relocation of Invergowrie Station, which assumes an additional hourly stopping service between Arbroath and Glasgow and Western Gateway Villages being occupied by 2019, 3.11 At its meeting on 17 June 2014 the Partnership received a report on an Outline Business Case (OBC) that indicates that relocating Invergowrie Station to Dundee West has the potential for a positive Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) of 2.31 (Report RTP/14/14 refers). The demand forecast for the two locations, existing Invergowrie Station and Dundee West site, indicates an increase in demand of 108,000 passengers per annum, by relocating to Dundee West with much of this demand as a result of car park provision at the relocated Dundee West site. Just under 40,000 passengers per annum relates to generated demand with the remainder being trips abstracted from Dundee Station. 3 3.12 Following the completion of the updated OBC, Tactran officers engaged with Transport Scotland and the rail industry to consider the study results. In September 2014 both Network Rail and First ScotRail noted the results of the study and confirmed they were content with the methodology used. 3.13 First ScotRail believed that the study was a proportionate assessment of two options to identify which best complements a larger scheme for which a full appraisal has been undertaken. Abellio has since confirmed this remains ScotRail’s opinion of the study. Network Rail suggested some minor alterations such as references to rail policy documents and clarification of the Scottish Stations Fund process. A copy of this updated OBC is available in the Members’ area of www.tactran.gov.uk. 3.14 Although part of the Steering Group throughout all TERS studies, Transport Scotland