NORFOLK ISLAND AIRPORT AIRPORT MASTER PLAN
DRAFT FINAL REPORT Norfolk Island Regional Council
NORFOLK ISLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AIRPORT MASTER PLAN DRAFT FINAL REPORT
SUBMITTED BY
LEADING EDGE AVIATION PLANNING PROFESSIONALS PTY LTD Innovation Centre Sunshine Coast 90 Sippy Downs Drive Sippy Downs 4556 Queensland Australia [email protected] +617-54302220
JULY 2020
DOCUMENT CONTROL SHEET
Report Title Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan
File Reference 19300RpcscNLKDraftAirportMasterPlan270720
Author Philip Craig
Reviewer Shannen Chua / Victor Craig
QA Review Rayvathi Ganesan
Issued Date 27 July 2020
*The purpose of this form is to ensure that documents are reviewed and approved prior to issue. The form is to be bound into the front of all documents released for the Project.
Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan Executive Summary
Executive Summary
The first point of contact for any visitor to Norfolk Island is the Airport. This is an important piece of infrastructure for the Island and its people and therefore, it is important to ensure that plans are established for the long term future of the facility, so that it can continue to welcome visitors on into the future. The Airport Master Plan is the plan for the future of the airport. Some of the facilities and activities identified in the Airport Master Plan will be developed in the near term, whereas some will take several years to justify and might be expected to be implemented in 10 to 15 years time. The Master Plan identifies areas of the airport site that are reserved to enable the Regional Council to be able to react to other opportunities that might develop in the future but are not presently apparent.
The airport is served by three Regular Passenger Transport (RPT) operations; two operated by Air New Zealand using Airbus A320 aircraft linking the Island to Sydney and Brisbane and one service to/from Auckland operated by Air Chathams with a 50-passenger Convair 580 aircraft. Currently, the 3 RPT services are not operated every day. Forecasts for Norfolk Island Airport prepared as part of this Master Plan identify a growth in demand for both tourism and resident travel, which would create demand for additional services by the incumbent carriers, to eventually add services throughout the week, and so fill out the flight schedule, rather than competing services occurring at the same time. For the Norfolk Island Airport facilities, the impact of future passenger growth accommodated by this sort of schedule development would be minimised as the peak periods of flight activity at the airport would not intensify. Consequently, the Master Plan has addressed facility development driven primarily by the current deficiencies that exist in terms of capacity, so as to reflect the nature of expected growth in passengers and flights, and the facilities required to serve this type of growth. What this means is that the expectation is that the peak period demand on facilities due to future traffic growth would not change appreciably over time, and the demand for facilities such as passenger terminal space, would not increase much beyond present levels, driven only by a possible upsizing of the primary aircraft serving the Island from the present 168-passenger A320 aircraft to the slightly larger 185-passenger A321 aircraft. Sizing of the passenger terminal to serve the airport through the Master Plan period, along with airside pavement strengthening, has therefore assumed that the A321 aircraft would ultimately become the primary passenger aircraft to serve the airport. Such an aircraft substitution would, however, be contingent upon removal of the passenger load restriction for inbound passengers from Australia, which presently arises due to their quasi-domestic status and the need for flights to be able to divert back to the mainland in emergency situations, or when weather prevents a landing to be made on the Island.
The scope of development proposed for the airport through the Master Plan period has been phased into 4 phases, reflecting priorities determined through analysis of capacity and deficiencies, as well as perceived needs and opportunities. Capital costs for airport development have been
Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan Executive Summary
estimated on the basis of mainland cost rates, but these are not published in the Master Plan, as the added cost factor for construction on Norfolk Island due to its remoteness, can presently only be determined through tendering out to the construction market. As far as the proposed phases of development are concerned, these comprise the following:
Phase 1 – Between 2020 and 2025 When the Passenger Terminal was originally designed, it was based on services provided by much smaller aircraft and, therefore, analysis of the capacity of the existing Passenger Terminal has found that it is undersized for the current level of passenger demand. To address the deficiency in Passenger Terminal capacity, a new Passenger Terminal has been identified as being required. The proposed new terminal would present a modern and welcoming atmosphere for both arriving and departing visitors. More importantly, the design would be flexible to allow for internal changes to processes to be put into effect if necessary and the configuration of the internal spaces is planned to ensure that changes can be effected without impacting on the structure of the building.
To facilitate construction of a new Passenger Terminal, and to provide sufficient Air Freight processing space, a new Air Freight Centre is proposed for development. The new freight facility will be located beside the airport fuel storage area, off Ferny Lane. Adjacent to this new Air Freight Centre a space has been reserved for the future development of a dedicated air freighter parking stand to accommodate the handling of freighter aircraft away from the passenger terminal, so as to improve apron operations and safety.
Phase 2 – 2025 to 2035 Later in the Master Planning period, the airport maintenance buildings are proposed to be moved to the other side of the taxiway, near to the Meteorological Services building.
Phase 3 – 2035 to 2040 The Passenger Terminal Apron currently offers insufficient aircraft parking space and is presently operating beyond its safe capacity. Consequently, the aircraft parking apron at the terminal building is proposed to be expanded to accommodate 4 aircraft stands in this development Phase.
Phase 4 – beyond 2040 - or Otherwise Driven by Opportunities In addition to the planned development of the passenger terminal building, terminal apron, Air Cargo Centre and Airport Maintenance Building, there are a few areas identified in the Master Plan as reserve spaces for other possible needs and opportunities should these become apparent during the Master Plan period or beyond. These include a new Commercial Development Reserve to accommodate aviation businesses that may wish to locate at the airport, the provision of a dedicated freighter aircraft stand beside the Air Freight Centre, and further expansion of the Passenger Terminal Apron to increase the total number of aircraft parking positions to 5 aircraft stands.
The Airport Master Plan is depicted as a layout plan for the site in Exhibit E-1.
Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0 INTRODUCTION ...... 1
1.1 Description of the Airport ...... 1 1.2 History of the Airport ...... 1 2.0 AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE ...... 2
2.1 Existing Passenger Terminal ...... 2 2.2 Runways ...... 3 2.3 Aprons ...... 6 2.4 Aircraft Rescue and Fire Fighting ...... 6 2.5 Air Freight ...... 6 2.6 Fuel Facilities ...... 7 2.7 Meteorological Services ...... 7 2.8 Navigational Aids ...... 7 2.9 Airport Maintenance ...... 8 2.10 Private Hangars/Buildings ...... 8 2.11 Fencing ...... 8 3.0 AIR TRAFFIC FORECAST ...... 9
3.1 Norfolk Island Airport Traffic ...... 10 3.2 Air Traffic Forecasting Logic ...... 16 3.3 Forecast Segments ...... 17 3.4 Air Traffic Forecast Scenarios ...... 22 3.5 Summary of Air Traffic Forecasts For Norfolk Island ...... 33 4.0 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT REQUIREMENTS ...... 34
4.1 Passenger Terminal Building Capacity ...... 34 4.2 Passenger Apron ...... 37 4.3 Air Freight Facility ...... 37 5.0 SITE DEVELOPMENT CONCEPTS ...... 38
5.1 Passenger Terminal ...... 38 5.2 Passenger Terminal Apron ...... 55 5.3 Air Freight ...... 56 5.4 Commercial Leasable Reserve ...... 58 5.5 Airport Maintenance Buildings ...... 59 6.0 THE MASTER PLAN ...... 60
6.1 Passenger Terminal ...... 61 6.2 Passenger Apron ...... 61
Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan Table of Contents
6.3 Freight Facilities ...... 61 6.4 Phasing ...... 62 7.0 FINANCIAL OVERVIEW ...... 64 7.1 Revenue ...... 64 7.2 Expenses ...... 66 7.3 Airport Operations Profitability ...... 67 7.4 Capital Expenses ...... 68 8.0 Projected Financial Performance ...... 70 9.0 COVID-19 Impacts on Master Plan ...... 74
9.1 Air Traffic Post COVID-19 ...... 74 9.2 Airport Master Plan Infrastructure ...... 76 Appendix A – Obstacle Limitation Surfaces ...... 78
Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan List of Abbreviations
Abbreviations
A320 The A320 aircraft is a narrowbody jet aircraft manufactured by Airbus ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics ADRM Aerodrome Design Reference Manual developed by IATA AKL Auckland International Airport ARFFS Aircraft Rescue and Fire Fighting ASIC Aviation Security ID Card AVGAS Aviation fuel used in small piston engine aircraft B737 The B737 is a narrowbody jet aircraft manufactured by Boeing BITRE Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics BNE Brisbane International Airport BNN Backup Navigational Network BoM Bureau of Meteorology CASA Civil Aviation Safety Authority Code C A group of aircraft with wingspans larger than 24m but less than 36m with wheel spans of more than 6m but less than 9m DME Distance Measuring Equipment e-tops Extended-range Twin-engine Operations FOD Foreign Object Debris GA General Aviation GDP Gross Domestic Product GIP Gross Island Product GNSS Global Navigation Satellite System GSE Ground Service Equipment IATA International Air Transport Association ICAO International Civil Aviation Organisation LoS Level of Service MET Meteorology MoS 139 CASA Manual of Standards Part 139 MTOW Maximum Takeoff Weight NavAIDS Navigational Aids NDB Non Directional Beacon NIRC Norfolk Island Regional Council NVS National Visitor Survey PCN Pavement Classification Number OLS Obstacle Limitation Surfaces PIPB Power-In, Push Back PTB Passenger Terminal Building RNP Required Navigational Performance RPT Regular Passenger Transport SARPS Standards And Recommended Practices SYD Sydney International Airport TRA Tourism Research Australia VOR Visual Omni Range
Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1 Airport Master Plan
Exhibit 2-1 Wind Rose
Exhibit 3-1 Passenger Traffic Development FY1986 – FY2019 Exhibit 3-2 Norfolk Island Air Service Capacity Development FY2007 - FY2019 Exhibit 3-3 Norfolk Island Airport Load Factor Analysis FY2007 - FY2019 Exhibit 3-4 Norfolk Island Airport Seasonality Exhibit 3-5 Norfolk Island Airport Seasonality and Load Factor Trend Averages for FY2013 – FY2019 Exhibit 3-6 Norfolk Island Airport Weekly Departures (NW18/19/NS19) Exhibit 3-7 Norfolk Island Airport Monthly Passenger Traffic Composition & Rolling Average Passenger Levels (July 2012 – September 2019) Exhibit 3-8 Norfolk Island Airport – Resident Travel Patterns Exhibit 3-9 Norfolk Island Airport – Visitor Travel Patterns Exhibit 3-10 Australian Leisure Travel Exhibit 3-11 Norfolk Island Airport Base Passenger Traffic Forecast Exhibit 3-12 Norfolk Island Airport High Passenger Traffic Forecast Exhibit 3-13 Norfolk Island Airport Low Passenger Traffic Forecast Exhibit 3-14 Summary of Forecast Air Traffic for Norfolk Island in FY2020, FY2030 and FY2040
Exhibit 4-1 Capacity Analysis for Norfolk Island Airport Passenger Terminal Building
Exhibit 5-1 Summary Table of Features for Option T1 Exhibit 5-2 Option T1 Perspective View Exhibit 5-3 Option T1 Floor Plan Exhibit 5-4 Option T1 Flow Plan Exhibit 5-5 Summary Table of Features for Option T1 Exhibit 5-6 Option T1 Perspective View Exhibit 5-7 Option T1 Floor Plan Exhibit 5-8 Option T1 Flow Plan Exhibit 5-9 Summary Table of Features for Option T1 Exhibit 5-10 Option T1 Perspective View Exhibit 5-11 Option T1 Floor Plan Exhibit 5-12 Option T1 Flow Plan Exhibit 5-13 Capacity Analysis for Norfolk Island Airport Passenger Terminal Options Exhibit 5-14 Passenger Terminal Apron Option A1 Exhibit 5-15 Passenger Terminal Apron Option A2 Exhibit 5-16 Passenger Terminal Apron Option A3 Exhibit 5-17 Air Freight Centre Option F1 Exhibit 5-18 Air Freight Centre Option F2 Exhibit 5-19 Air Freight Centre Option F3 Exhibit 5-20 Commercial Development Reserve Exhibit 5-21 Airport Maintenance Facilities
Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan List of Exhibits
Exhibit 6-1 Airport Master Plan Exhibit 6-2 Airport Master Plan Phase 1 Exhibit 6-2 Airport Master Plan Phase 2 Exhibit 6-2 Airport Master Plan Phase 3 Exhibit 6-2 Airport Master Plan Phase 4
Exhibit 7-1 Composition of Norfolk Island Airport Revenue for FY2018/19 Exhibit 7-2 Composition of Norfolk Island Airport Expenses for FY2018/19 Exhibit 7-3 Norfolk Island Airport Operating Profitability for Financial Year (AUD) Exhibit 7-4 Norfolk Island Airport Capital Expenses for Financial Year (AUD)
Exhibit 8-1 Budgeted and Approved Airport Development Project Costs for Norfolk Island Airport Exhibit 8-2 Proposed Airport Development Project Costs for Norfolk Island Airport Exhibit 8-3 Projected Operating Profit/ Loss Statement (AUD) for Norfolk Island Airport Operation
Exhibit A-1 Obstacle Limitation Surfaces Exhibit A-2 Obstacle Chart
Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan Draft Final Report
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Norfolk Island is a remote island in the Pacific Ocean, located some 1680km from Sydney, 1466km from Brisbane and 1090km from Auckland. Although there are some marine services, the airport is a vital link for residents, tourists and for provisioning the island in terms of goods and services. Tourism represents a large proportion of the Island’s economy and therefore the airport provides a “Welcome” or “Tampali” to Norfolk Island experience as well as a “Welcome Home” for residents who have been travelling elsewhere. It is therefore important for the Regional Council to have a plan for the future development and upgrading of the airport, and a plan for how to continue to provide a welcome to visitors that represent the major driver of the Island’s economy. This Airport Master Plan is the guide to preserving the gateway to this majestic island, steeped in history, surrounded by beauty, and with welcoming and friendly people.
The Airport plays a major role in the lives of islanders and those visiting the Island and, because of this, in November 2019, the Norfolk Island Regional Council embarked on the development of a Master Plan for the airport. The Master Plan identifies the infrastructure needs of the airport and will guide its development over the next 20 years. In addition, the Master Plan will help the Council to respond to opportunities, knowing that they can serve the changing needs for air travel to and from Norfolk Island without jeopardising future opportunities.
1.1 Description of the Airport
The Norfolk Island Airport, in its current form, occupies a site of 120 hectares, within which are 2 paved runways, an aircraft parking apron, a Passenger Terminal Building, an Aircraft Fire and Rescue facility, a weather station and a series of smaller buildings supporting various activities at the airport. The airport is located bedside the town of Burnt Pine and is in the South-West of the Island. Although the Airport and its associated Council facilities covers a total of 120 hectares, only 80.87 hectares are fenced and used for aviation activities.
1.2 History of the Airport
Late in the Second World War, with allied forces pushing eastwards into the Pacific, a need for an airfield on Norfolk Island to support troop deployment became apparent. Norfolk Island was seen to be a strategic location from which to stage troops to recapture critical islands in the Pacific and construction of an airfield on the Island therefore commenced in 1942. The first runway for the airfield was completed in late 1942 with the second runway being constructed in 1943. Following the end of the War, the airfield became the Island’s civilian airport, and this has maintained a vital role in connecting Norfolk Island to its neighbours: Australia, New Zealand, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Fiji. The current Passenger Terminal, completed in 1999, provides a gateway for visitors to the Island.
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Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan Draft Final Report
2.0 AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
2.1 Existing Passenger Terminal
The Passenger Terminal Building (PTB), located in the northeast quadrant of the airport site, was constructed in the late 1990’s and opened in 1999. The building is constructed as a concrete slab-on-ground, timber framed structure with a profiled sheet metal roof. The building’s main design feature is its gabled roof with corresponding cathedral ceilings on the inside, highlighting exposed timber trusses and giving a distinctive Norfolk Island feel. The building is naturally ventilated using clerestory windows and suspended ceiling fans to provide comfort to passengers and airport, airline and government agency staff. Selected offices have air-conditioning. The interior is predominantly naturally lit by the array of windows including hi-lite windows in the vaulted ceiling. However, the use of timber, high ceilings and paint colour scheme, create a darker atmosphere in some areas of the terminal building.
The PTB was originally designed to accommodate a flow of 100 passengers in the peak hour, based on the forecasted design aircraft at the time. Currently, though, typical flights are carrying over 130 one-way passengers, and, during peak holiday periods, full flight loads are experienced on the Australia-Norfolk Island routes and the passenger terminal is required to handle well over its design capacity of 100 arrival or departure passengers. For inbound arrival operations to Norfolk Island from Australia, the aircraft seat capacity is restricted to 145 passengers for the Sydney route and 152 passengers for the Brisbane route, due to the need to allow for a possible diversion to an alternate airport if a landing cannot be made on the Island. Outbound departing flights can, however, offer the full seat capacity of the aircraft, which is 168 seats1. This means that, currently, the passenger terminal has to accommodate up to 152 arriving passengers and 168 departing passengers in the peak hour. Consequently, with a design capacity for 100 peak hour passengers, at current levels of passenger traffic, the passenger terminal building is operating at, or over, its design capacity in busy periods, resulting in some congestion and discomfort for passengers during both the arrival and departure processing phases. For capacity analysis purposes the aircraft capacity of 168 passengers has been taken as the critical passenger demand condition to be imposed on the passenger terminal building in the near term, while the future required terminal sizing has been determined on the basis of a possible aircraft type substitution in favour of a 185-seat A321 aircraft for the longer term.
1 Although the actual capacity of the A320 aircraft type operated into Norfolk Island is 168 passengers, in practice only 145 seats can be filled on the Sydney to Norfolk Island route and 152 seats on the Brisbane to Norfolk Island route. This due to the designation of alternate airports in the event of an emergency or inability to land at Norfolk Island due to weather conditions. For the return flights from Norfolk Island to either Sydney or Brisbane, there is no such operational restriction, and the full capacity of the aircraft (168 passengers) can be carried.
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Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan Draft Final Report
For the future, the passenger forecast assumes that the aircraft type operated on the Australia-Norfolk Island routes would not increase appreciably in size, and that the peak hour passenger demand would remain close to current levels, but would not exceed 185 passengers if and when an A321 type aircraft is introduced into the Norfolk Island service. However the forecast increased overall passenger traffic on the Australian mainland routes would be accommodated entirely through an increase in flight frequency (i.e. from the present 3 flights per week up to daily services), while the aircraft seat factors on the routes would rise above the current average of 92% to reach 100% in busy periods. While this future increase in flight frequency could result in two Code C type aircraft parked on the apron at the same time, it is assumed that the flight scheduling would be such that, while two aircraft might be parked on the apron, the terminal would not be required to process two flight loads of passengers through the terminal building simultaneously. However, it is possible that an ‘international’ flight, such as the Auckland-Norfolk Island flight might be in the arrival process at the same time that a mainland Australia flight is in the departure processing phase, or that an arriving flight from Australia might be in the arrival processing phase at the same time that a departing international flight is being processed through the building. For future terminal planning purposes, these passenger demand configurations have been accommodated.
2.2 Runways
Norfolk Island Airport has 2 paved runways. The primary runway is designated Runway 11/29 and the secondary runway is Runway 04/22. Runway 11/29 has a total pavement length of 1890m and is 45m wide. This is used by the larger aircraft using the airport, such as the A320 and CV580 types. The secondary runway, Runway 04/22, is 1435m long and narrower, at 30m wide, and therefore not usable for take-off and landing operations by the A320 aircraft currently operated by Air New Zealand for the Sydney and Brisbane flight sectors. Both runways are asphalt-paved. It is to be noted that about 500m of Runway 04/22 east of its intersection with Runway 11/29 is used by all aircraft, including the A320 and B737 medium jet aircraft, for taxiing from the terminal apron to Runway 11/29. The operational distances for the runways are as tabulated below:
Runway A/C Category TORA TODA ASDA LDA Runway 11/29 11 4 1890 1950 1890 1890 29 4 1890 1950 1890 1890 Runway 04/22 04 2 1435 1495 1435 1435 22 2 1435 1495 1435 1435
At the time of writing, a Pavement Overlay Project has been underway. This project is intended to apply an asphalt overlay to the runways, taxiway and apron. The pavements are also being reprofiled and some strengthening is being conducted through the present overlay project to enable the primary runway, taxiway and apron to accommodate operations of the heavier 185-
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Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan Draft Final Report
passenger A321 model aircraft. The length of Runway 11/29 is such that the take-off weight for A321 aircraft would be limited by runway length to 83,000kg, which would mean that the pavements would need to be strengthened to reflect a Pavement Classification Number (PCN) of 47 for a ‘B’ subgrade if take-off weight operations at 83,000kg were to be required. However, it appears that the pavement strength for Runway 11/29, the taxiway and apron has been limited to that required for an A321 to takeoff at a maximum takeoff weight of 74,000kg, which is commensurate with operations to Sydney, Brisbane and, potentially, Melbourne. For this, a pavement strength reflecting a PCN of 41 would be required. As of the time this Master Plan was prepared, the overlay project had not yet been completed, and therefore the strength of the primary runway, taxiway and apron to be achieved through the overlay project is not yet known.
Currently, the strength of the two runways, is therefore :
Runway 04/22 PCN 12 /F /C /580 (84PSI) /U Runway 11/29 PCN 43 /F /B /1410 (205PSI) /T Grooved
Testing of the pavements prior to the Pavement Overlay Project, identified that although the PCN for Runway 04/22 was lower and on a weaker subgrade than Runway 11/29, the portion of Runway 04/22 that is traversed by aircraft travelling to, or from, the apron and Runway 11/29, has a strength that is as strong as Runway 11/29. The pavement strength of the primary runway (Runway 11/29), taxiway and apron, required for unlimited use by A320-200 aircraft, presently published as a PCN 43, only needs to be a PCN 39 in order to support A320-200 aircraft operated at a take-off weight of 74,000kg, which represents the maximum take-off weight consistent with the take-off runway length offered by the present runway. The present runway clearly offers sufficient strength for use by the A320 aircraft that are currently used by Air New Zealand on the two Australia mainland routes. At a PCN of 43, the Runway 11/29 pavement does not, however, offer sufficient strength for unlimited use by heavier A321-200 type aircraft which may be operated in the future if these are operated at a take-off weight of 83,000kg, which would be the maximum weight for take off by A321 aircraft on Runway 11/29 under summer atmospheric conditions. For that condition, a PCN of 47 would be required for these pavements, rather than the present strength of PCN 43. However, if the A321 were to be restricted to a take-off weight of 74,000kg, this would still enable operation of the A321 on the existing pavement with a full passenger complement, but no freight, on Australian mainland sectors, and flights to Melbourne would likely become possible.
The take-off and landing run of 1890m available on Runway 11/29, provides sufficient runway length to operate the current aircraft for a range of approximately 3150km from the airport. The current constraint on passenger loads or destinations is the availability of alternate airports in the event that a diversion becomes necessary due to weather or to an emergency situation. As passengers depart Brisbane and Sydney as Domestic passengers, and therefore do not necessarily carry a passport, the airline is not able to use non-Australian airports as suitable alternate airports and therefore need to depart Brisbane and Sydney with enough, fuel to return should they be unable to land at Norfolk Island. As a result, the constraint on payload is a result of the outbound sector from Brisbane and Sydney.
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The runway length at Norfolk Island, is suitable for the current route structure with enough runway to accommodate a full passenger load to Brisbane or Sydney. At a maximum take-off weight possible for Runway 11/29, the A320 aircraft type should be able to fly 3150km and therefore in excess of the primary markets that could potentially be developed within the Master Plan horizon. Should the issues related to the status of passengers and required alternate airports be cleared, full load flights could be operated from other Australian airports, and the present runway would therefore be able to accommodate such future markets.
For the present markets, though, further development of the runway is not necessary as the traffic forecast envisages an increase in flight frequencies, rather than an increase in the number of airports served on the Australian mainland. More importantly, the land beyond the ends of the runways, drops away quite sharply and any extension of the primary runway would therefore be very expensive to construct and any such major expense would not attract a larger market to offset the expenditure. Consequently, extension of the runway is not a requirement for the Master Plan period.
2.2.1 Wind Rose
Activities on the runways are dictated by the wind conditions experienced at the airport. Wind data has been compiled from the MET facility at the airport and available from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The data sourced from BoM was recorded every 15 minutes for a 10-year period. The combined data has been compiled into a wind rose diagram for the airport and this is provided in Exhibit 2-1. Overlayed onto the wind rose diagram are the alignments of the two runways, Runway 04/22 and Runway 11/29, including identification of the 10 knot and 20 knot crosswind coverage for both runways. Wind coverage as a percentage of total recorded wind measurements over a 10-year period is employed as a means to identify how usable a runway is based on local winds and the crosswind capability of the aircraft using the runway. As can be seen from Exhibit 2-1, the combined runways provide a 100% wind coverage, while Runway 11/29 as the primary runway provides a runway usability based on wind of 99.6%. This is a very high wind coverage for the primary runway, and suggests that the airport could decommission Runway 04/22, as it only adds 0.4% runway usability to the system. However, as the island is remote, and there are no other nearby runways, having a second runway available is important for smaller aircraft, or at times when the crosswind component on the main runway might exceed the capability of small aircraft to use it. In addition, calculation of Runway Usability from wind data does not take into account gusting conditions. Wind gusts can exceed the crosswind capability for smaller aircraft and cause a pilot to choose Runway 04/22 for landing even if the steady stream wind condition on Runway 11/29 is within the capabilities of the aircraft. In view of this, Runway 04/22 should remain available for operations to ensure smaller aircraft can continue to have access to Norfolk Island.
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2.3 Aprons
The airport has a single asphalt sealed apron at the North-East end of the airport, directly in front of the Passenger Terminal. This apron is approximately 8,200m2 in area and has been configured for 2 Code C self- manoeuvring aircraft parking positions. The airport regularly receives a single Regular Public Transport (RPT) aircraft either in the form of an Airbus A320 operated by Air New Zealand to/from Sydney and Brisbane, or a Convair 580 operated by Air Chathams to/from Auckland. Although the flight schedules are such that only one of these aircraft is scheduled to be on the ground at any one time, there are occasions when both aircraft are on the ground at the same time, thereby filling both of the available RPT parking positions. In addition, Norfolk Island Airport does receive some non- scheduled flights from Australia, New Zealand and other regional origins. This means that there are times when the demand for aircraft parking on the apron can exceed the capacity available. There is a clear need to expand the aircraft parking apron to ensure that the capacity for aircraft is increased to allow for more than two aircraft to park in front of the Terminal Building. In addition to the sealed apron at the Terminal Building, there is a grassed area available to the north-east of the sealed apron, beside the Power Station. This grassed area is used from time to time to park light general aviation (GA) aircraft, but is not suitable for use by larger Code A, B or C aircraft that visit the island and need to be parked on a hard surface.
2.4 Aircraft Rescue and Fire Fighting
Being an international destination, Norfolk Island Airport is required to have suitable rescue and firefighting facilities at the airport. To serve the travelling public and to comply with their commitments under the CASA MoS requirements, as well as ICAO SARPs commitments, Norfolk Island Airport has an Airport Rescue and Fire Fighting Service (ARFFS) facility on the airport. This is located near the intersection of Runways 11/29 and 04/22. The ARFFS station was opened in 2010 and is equipped with 2 Rosenbauer Panther CA5 firefighting tenders and a command vehicle. The level of cover currently maintained for publication is for a Category 6 fire cover. The AFFRS facility is in good condition and is able to accommodate the current equipment and demands of the service. The facility also has room to accommodate growth if needed.
2.5 Air Freight
The existing air freight centre is located on the north side of the passenger terminal. The facility is approximately 250m2 in area and is inadequate for the freight processing function of the airport. The building currently has access to the airside for inbound and outbound freight, as well as a landside access for freight collection. Freight is collected from the Freight Centre by means of vehicles driving through the public carpark to the side of the freight building.
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The current air freight operation at the airport involves only a small volume of cargo carried in the belly of the Air New Zealand passenger flights, as well as a single B737 Freighter operated from Australia to Norfolk Island once a week. The air freighter operation carries inbound freight for the island, and waste and materials for recycling outbound. The small volumes of inbound freight carried in the passenger aircraft are loaded onto dollies and carted to the freight building for processing. The larger volumes carried by the dedicated freighter aircraft are staged in the open, on the apron before being either loaded into the aircraft or processed through the freight building.
2.6 Fuel Facilities
Norfolk Island Airport currently supplies Jet A1 as well as AVGAS fuels through a concession serviced by Burnt Pine Fuel. Until recently, Jet A1 fuel had been available from an underground fuel hydrant system in the apron. However, this system has been decommissioned as part of the apron resurfacing and pavement overlay project. As a result, Burnt Pine Fuel now only supplies Jet A1 fuel by means of a mobile fuel bowser. AVGAS fuels for piston-engine aircraft had been dispensed via a fixed fuel dispenser unit located to the South-West side of the main apron. However, this fuel dispenser location conflicted with operations of RPT aircraft on the adjacent aircraft parking stand, Bay 1, to the extent that when Bay 1 is in use, AVGAS fuel dispensing was not possible. As part of the apron pavement resurfacing programme, the AVGAS dispensing facility has been removed and has not yet been reinstated. With low volumes of aircraft requiring AVGAS using the airport, the current plan is for a AVGAS to be dispensed from a mobile unit, enabling greater flexibility in the use of the apron.
Jet A1 fuel storage is currently 70,000L. Based on current demand for turbine fuel, the present fuel storage capacity and supply is adequate. Fuel storage is maintained at the airport as well as at an offsite facility in Ball Bay.
2.7 Meteorological Services
There is a manned meteorological building located on the North-West side of Runway 14/22 at approximately the midpoint of the runway. The Met facilities building is located beside the Council Electrical Services sheds.
2.8 Navigational Aids
Norfolk Island Airport has a number of NavAIDS available. With the remoteness of the island, Air Services Australia has retained an NDB as part of the Backup Navigational Network (BNN). The BNN comprises a number of selected NDB navaids that have been retained in operation to ensure that aircraft have access to a functioning ground-based navigational system in the event of failure of the primary navaid system. The airport is also served by a Visual Omni Range station (VOR) and collocated Distance Measuring Equipment (DME), with these facilities located near the threshold for
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Runway 04. In addition to these ground-based navigational aids, the airport is also served by the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), and GNSS instrument approaches to Runways 04, 11 and 29 are published for the airport. The GNSS approach allows pilots with suitably-equipped aircraft to operate using a Global Positioning System (GPS) that relies on satellites to assist an aircraft pilot to identify their position and to follow a safe approach to a runway until visual reference is achieved. In addition, Norfolk Island Airport has 3 Required Navigation Performance (RNP) procedures which allows a pilot to fly a specific path between two 3D-defined points in space, with this facility being available only to CASA approved operators.
2.9 Airport Maintenance
The airport maintenance function for the airport is housed in four buildings located on the South-East side of Runway 04/22. The maintenance facilities are accessible from a gate off Ferny Lane. The airport maintenance complex consists of two workshop buildings, an old storage building and an old vehicle storage covered parking. Three of the four buildings are in poor condition and in need of repair or replacement.
2.10 Private Hangars/Buildings
There are two private hangars on the airport. One is a small open-ended hangar owned by Council and rented to a private individual, and the other hangar is larger and privately owned on land leased from the Council.
The Council also owns a small shed near the passenger apron and beside the smaller Council-owned, and this shed is currently occupied by Burnt Pine Fuel. Next to the small shed, Burnt Pine Fuel has constructed a number of facilities to accommodate their fuel dispensing and ground handling activities.
2.11 Fencing
The airport property is surrounded by fences. Around the passenger terminal car park, there is a high barbed wire topped, chain-link/chainwire fence separating the public car park from the airside. The Passenger Terminal also has an outdoor observation area to allow well-wishers and passengers to watch aircraft on the apron. This area is surrounded by two fences. The first at 1.2m tall and the second fence at 1.8m tall. The fuel area is surrounded by a barbed wire topped chain-link fence. The rest of the airport property is mostly surrounded by agricultural fencing.
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Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan Draft Final Report
3.0 AIR TRAFFIC FORECAST
Norfolk Island, home to around 1,750 residents, down from slightly over 2,000 at the turn of the century, is heavily dependent on income from tourism. Some 40% of Gross Island Product (GIP) is driven directly by tourism. However, this percentage dependency increases when economic flow-on effects are included.
Whilst most residents would agree that Water, Waste, and Power are the three areas of the most overwhelming importance to the island, Access, for both people and freight, is arguably an equally important aspect driving the island’s economy and welfare.
Located 800km SSE of Noumea, 1,100km NW of Auckland, 1,450km East of Brisbane and 1,800km North-East of Sydney, means that aviation is of critical importance for Norfolk Island. Whilst the island receives an ever- increasing number of day visitors from cruise ships that call on Norfolk Island, overnight visitors as well as residents rely entirely on air links for their travel needs to and from the island.
The history of aviation serving Norfolk Island is long and mostly negative, including various attempts to operate and/or charter air capacity for an island-owned airline, Norfolk Air. The idea of an island-owned and/or operated airline was abandoned during 2012 and, since then, Air New Zealand (NZ) has been the only air service provider to and from the Norfolk Island Airport (NLK), offering services to Auckland (AKL), Brisbane (BNE), and Sydney (SYD) up to 2017, and to Brisbane and Sydney only in 2018 and 2019. Most recently, during November 2019, Air Chathams (3C) re- introduced an air service between the Island and Auckland with this being operated once each week.
The Air New Zealand services between Norfolk Island and Brisbane and Sydney are underwritten by the Australian Government, with the Department of Infrastructure, Regional Development and Cities managing the contract. It is understood that, from time to time, destinations, frequencies, and schedules are agreed upon by the parties. In early November 2019, Air New Zealand agreed to operate a 3rd weekly flight on the Norfolk Island-Brisbane route for the peak winter scheduling period for 2020/2021, but, at the same time, declined to introduce a service to Melbourne, as this was deemed by the airline not to be economically feasible.
Current operations by Air New Zealand are severely impacted by payload restrictions of an artificial and questionable nature. As travellers between Australia and Norfolk Island are regarded as domestic passengers, they require a Photo ID to travel, but are not required to show a passport. This requires the aircraft to carry enough fuel to travel back to its Australian point of origin, and land there if a diversion from Norfolk Island becomes necessary, as the closer potential alternates for diversion, such as Noumea (NOU) and Auckland, are international airports. Consequently, the Sydney- Norfolk Island service is restricted to approximately 145 sellable seats on the aircraft, and to 152 sellable seats on the Brisbane-Norfolk Island service. These restrictions limit the 168-passenger aircraft to a passenger seat factor
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of 86% for the Sydney service and to 90% for the Brisbane service, and inevitably these impact upon the air fares that the airline has to charge for serving Norfolk Island.
In addition, as the Norfolk Island air services operated by Air New Zealand are required to operate from the international terminals at Sydney and Brisbane for Customs and Biosecurity reasons, fairly high international terminal charges of around $55 per departing AND arriving passenger are incurred and passed onto passengers through the air fares charged for travel to and from Norfolk Island. These factors, together with a lack of airline competition on the routes between Australia and the Island, push the average shoulder and peak season round-trip air fare to between $800 and $1,000 per passenger. As a result, the air fares charged for travel to and from the Island are at the higher end of charges for short-haul leisure destinations from the Australian East Coast.
3.1 Norfolk Island Airport Traffic
3.1.1 Historic and Recent Traffic
Having peaked during 2000 and 20012, Norfolk Island’s most recent traffic results are in line with the air traffic levels achieved for the Island 30 years ago. Exhibit 3-1 demonstrates the historic pattern of air passenger travel to and from the Island in the period 1986 to 2019. Air passenger totals in each financial year are shown in ‘blue’ in this exhibit, while the year-on-year change in passenger numbers are provided with the percentage changes noted. Air passenger traffic peaked in 2000/2001 at 86,000 passengers but has declined to just under 60,000 passengers since that time.
2 Note that all traffic data represented is based on financial year results.
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Exhibit 3-1: Norfolk Island Airport Passenger Traffic Development FY1986-FY2019
The total passenger traffic, as shown in Exhibit 3-1, includes all air passengers including those carried by Norfolk Air, which operated under various service and capacity provider models until 2012, when it ceased operations. After 2012 this left Air New Zealand as the single air service provider to and from the Island.
In terms of aircraft seat capacity for the air services linking Norfolk Island to Australia, this declined over the five years prior to Norfolk Air ceasing its operations, however since 2012 Air New Zealand as the only carrier serving the Island has managed seat capacity so as to stabilize and grow the overall load factors achieved for the Australia-Norfolk Island routes. Exhibit 3-2 illustrates the history of seat capacity for these routes since 2007 and the recent stabilization of seat capacity, while Exhibit 3-3 provides data for passenger levels for the period 2007 to 2019 and shows the effect on passenger load factors when aircraft capacity is taken into account3. As may be noticed from Exhibit 3-3, since Air New Zealand become the sole commercial air operator serving Norfolk Island in 2012, the load factors achieved by the airline of the Norfolk Island routes has steadily increased, which should represent an improving financial position for the airline with respect to these services.
3 Load factors are calculated based on full aircraft capacity, ignoring other payload restrictions
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Exhibit 3-2: Norfolk Island Air Service Capacity Development FY2007-FY2019
Exhibit 3-3: Norfolk Island Airport Load Factor Analysis FY2007-FY2019
An important feature of the Norfolk Island air passenger traffic is that it is seasonal in nature, due largely to being dominated by tourist visitors. Air passenger traffic peaks generally from September to December and again from March to April for the tourist segment of the traffic. For the smaller
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proportion of passenger traffic represented by residents, this is also seasonal in nature but peaks in the Christmas holiday period of December and January. The seasonal pattern for both visitor and resident air travel is depicted in Exhibit 3-4.
Exhibit 3-4: Norfolk Island Airport Seasonality
Because of the seasonal pattern of air passenger traffic, Air New Zealand adjusts its capacity throughout the year. The load factor results therefore follow passenger traffic levels and seasonality trends. This pattern is depicted in Exhibit 3-5 for the financial years from 2013 to 2019.
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Exhibit 3-5: Norfolk Island Airport Seasonality and Load Factor Trend Averages for FY2013- FY2019
During the two most recent scheduling periods4, Norfolk Island received a total seat capacity of around 73,000 seats (which includes payload restrictions). The actual capacity offered by Air New Zealand during these two airline scheduling periods on the Sydney and Brisbane routes, expressed in terms of weekly scheduled flight departures is shown in Exhibit 3-6 for each month of the two scheduling periods. In essence, the capacity offered in terms of flight departures for Air New Zealand’s A320 services on the Sydney route provides for three weekly services from November to April, reducing to two services from May to August, and back up to three services from September. For the Brisbane route, the capacity offered remained static at two services per week with no seasonal variation in services. The capacity offered by Air Chathams to and from Auckland, using 50-passenger Convair 580 aircraft, is also included in Exhibit 3-6. As may be seen, this service only operates once each week.
4 Northern Winter 2018/2019 and Northern Summer 2019 scheduling periods
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Exhibit 3-6: Norfolk Island Airport Weekly Departures (NW 18/19/ NS19)
3.1.2 Summary
Air traffic development for Norfolk Island has been turbulent over the last two decades, but appears to have settled under the current underwritten air service agreement between Air New Zealand and the Australian Government.
Overall, for the past decade, passenger traffic has shown year-on-year rises and falls but has been relatively stable at just under 60,000 annual passengers. This is, however, some 30% below the peak passenger traffic level achieved during the financial year 2001 when 86,000 passengers passed through the airport.
Air passenger traffic at the Norfolk Island Airport is dominated by tourist visitors who, on average, represent 85% of passengers travelling to and from the Island.
There are distinct seasonality patterns for air passengers, with passenger traffic peaking between September and December as well as in March and April of each year. As far as resident traffic is concerned, seasonality is less pronounced, except for a clear peak during December and January, suggesting a pattern of increased visiting friends and relatives during the summer holiday season.
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Air passenger capacity offered by the airlines, principally Air New Zealand, follows these seasonality patterns, with capacity reducing by around 20% between May and August. Despite the capacity reduction in the low travel season, the airline still registers its lowest load factor results during these months.
3.2 Air Traffic Forecasting Logic
3.2.1 Background
The air traffic forecasts for the Norfolk Island Airport have been developed based on publicly available data and information, subscription aviation and tourism data to which the Consultants have access, as well as on information provided by various stakeholders such as the following:
• Norfolk Island Regional Council • Tourism Research Australia (TRA) – National Visitor Survey (NVS) • Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) – Aviation Statistics • Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) – Census 2016 • Airport IS – SRS Analyser – Airline Capacity • Airport IS – Airline Bookings • Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2019 – 2038 • Airbus Global Market Forecast 2018 – 2037
3.2.2 Air Traffic Forecasting Process
The air traffic forecast for the Norfolk Island Airport has been developed along the following parameters:
• Establishment of baseline (FY2019) traffic by major passenger segment o Resident Outbound o Visitor Inbound
• Investigation and establishment of relevant and reasonably “forecastable” drivers by segment of passenger traffic. Drivers investigated included: o Population growth o Economic growth (Australian GDP and Norfolk Island GIP) o Airline seat capacity growth o Average passenger fare development
Forecasts of air passengers were developed on an unconstrained basis for the period spanning 2020 to 2040 using the forecasting drivers noted above and their expected development, and calculated relationships between air traffic drivers and air traffic growth. Available data renders it difficult to calculate the underlying unconstrained demand for air travel to the Island, but correlation analysis suggests that inbound visitors to Norfolk Island are driven primarily by available capacity. In turn this suggests that the underlying demand for travel would grow faster than the capacity offered
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and faster than actual traffic levels achieved. To account for this, the forecast was prepared by developing a ‘bottom up’ forecast or the years 2020 and 2021, based on the capacity increases expected to be offered for that period.
For 2022 onwards for the remainder of the forecasting period to 2040, the forecast was based on growth calculated econometrically using Tourism Research Australia forecasts for inbound tourists, together with a slightly improving population and travel propensity for outbound passengers. An assessment of how the unconstrained, or econometrically derived forecasts from 2022 onwards, translate into constrained “bottom-up” forecasts, was then made, taking likely capacity developments into consideration.
3.3 Forecast Segments
Norfolk Island air passenger traffic has two distinct traveller segments, these being residents who display a relatively stable travel pattern, as well as tourist visitors, for whom significant variations in passenger levels are experienced from year to year. This is shown in Exhibit 3-7, which also shows the average numbers of passengers for the resident and visitor segments of the passenger traffic passing through the Island’s airport.
Exhibit 3-7: Norfolk Island Airport – Monthly Passenger Traffic Composition & Rolling Average Passenger Levels (July 2012- September 2019)
3.3.1 Passenger Segment 1: Resident Outbound Traffic
In Exhibit 3-8, the pattern experienced at the Norfolk Island Airport for air travel by Island residents is illustrated. This shows that resident travel from
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the Island appears to be stable at around 370 trips per month by Island residents, amounting to an annual volume of 4,500 passenger trips.
Over the last 8 years, the propensity to travel by Island residents averages 2.6 trips per resident per annum, ranging from as high as 2.8 and as low as 2.4 annual trips per resident.
Analysis of resident travel propensity with respect to air fare levels showed as seemingly counter-intuitive positive correlation between average fare and number of trips taken. It was concluded that this may be caused by resident travel seasonality peaking around the December-January period, which is also the more expensive holiday travel season.
Exhibit 3-8: Norfolk Island Airport- Resident Travel Patterns
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3.3.2 Passenger Segment 2: Visitor Inbound Traffic
Regression analysis was carried out for inbound visitors (as the dependent variable) against various independent variables such as GDP and GDP growth in the Australian economy, airline seat capacity and average air fares. The following results were obtained from this analysis:
• No statistically relevant correlation was found between the number of air passenger trips by visitors to Norfolk Island and economic drivers reflecting the health of the Australian economy (e.g. GDP, GDP Growth) • No statistically relevant correlation was found between the number of air trips by visitors to the Island and average air fares, but • A relatively significant relationship was found to exist between airline seat capacity on offer and inbound visitor trips to the Island.
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Exhibit 3-9: Norfolk Island Airport- Visitor Travel Patterns
The regression results for visitor arrivals to the Island are shown in Exhibit 3-9 for the analyses run for seat capacity and air fares. It is noted that the relationships listed above hold over both the short term on a monthly basis and the long term at an annual basis. Seat capacity on the air services to the Island appears to be the most relevant influence on why visitor numbers varied between 40,000 per annum during the airport’s peak visitor passenger traffic and 26,000 per annum during the most recent period.
Analysis has also been carried out for visitor traffic to Norfolk Island to reflect the age of visitors and length of visitor stays. What this suggests is that 80% of visitors to Norfolk Island would typically be in excess of 55 years of age meaning that the Island is mostly attracting visitors from the retired segment of the Australian population.
As far as the length of visitor stay is concerned, the trend in the Australian leisure market has been declining and currently stands at between 3.5 and 4.0 nights for all age groups, and rather less for the under 55 age group. For Norfolk Island visitors, however, the length of visitor stay is directly
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influenced by the airline flight schedules offered by the airlines. For the Brisbane originating visitors, for instance, these only have a choice of staying either 3, 4 or 7 nights based on the Air New Zealand weekly flight schedule for direct services, while visitors originating from Auckland and accessing the Island on Air Chathams, as this is a single weekly service their only option is to stay 6 nights.
Exhibit 3-10 shows the patterns of visitor length of stay for all age groups and for the under 55 travel market.
Exhibit 3-10: Australian Leisure Travel
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3.4 Air Traffic Forecast Scenarios
The air traffic forecast for Norfolk Island has been prepared to reflect three scenarios as follows:
• Base Forecast • High Forecast • Low Forecast
The “Base” forecast represents the ‘middle’ forecast and reflects a ‘business as usual’ situation, under which Air New Zealand remains the only Australian air carrier serving the Island with the service continuing to be underwritten by the Australian Government, while tourism marketing continues to be weak. This is expected to be the more likely forecast scenario to be realised for air passenger traffic. The “High” forecast assumes a better-than- expected performance and therefore represents a more optimistic scenario, which is believed to be achievable as a joint effort between government, the tourism management and airlines. In essence the ‘High’ forecast should be regarded as a realistic, but not ‘business-as-usual’ traffic target. The ‘Low forecast is based on weaker performance in the areas expected to generate traffic.
3.4.1 “Base” Passenger Traffic Forecast
As mentioned earlier, the Norfolk Island Airport traffic is driven predominately by Visitor Inbound activity, supported by a base level of Resident Outbound activity. For the Base Level forecast, these factors have been developed in the future as follows:
Forecast Traffic Drivers:
• Resident Outbound Passenger Traffic Forecast Assumptions: o Propensity to travel off the Island increased over time from 2.6 trips per resident per year, to 2.9 trips in FY2040 (representing a growth of 0.5% per annum) o Resident population increases from 1,756 in FY2019 to 1,950 in FY2040 (representing a growth of 0.5% per annum)
• Visitor Inbound Passenger Traffic Forecast Assumptions: o Inbound visitor traffic demand is split into Australians inbound and New Zealanders inbound segments o Both passenger traffic segments grow as per Tourism Research Australia forecast (Australian leisure international outbound and New Zealander leisure inbound) o Growth rates for visitor traffic from FY2029 gradually decrease from a blended rate of 1.8% to a blended rate of 1.0% in FY2040
Forecasting Logic:
• The Base Level forecast has been developed on an unconstrained demand basis as reflected in the traffic drivers identified • An overlay of capacity development (analytically assessed for FY2020 and FY2021) has been applied
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• A bottom-up, supply-based traffic for FY2020 and FY2021 has been developed, with the FY2020 capacity forecast to increase by 10% with slightly reduced annual load, and with the FY2020 traffic base grown thereafter at unconstrained growth rates to 2040.
Peak Week Frequency:
• During the most recent 12-month period, passenger traffic in March 2019 produced the highest number of passengers at around 6,500 passengers or 10.3% of the 12-month total, at an average effective load factor of 92% • To estimate future peak week movements, future annual forecasts were multiplied by 10.3% (to create peak month traffic), and divided by 92% (to create the peak month capacity requirement). Code C aircraft movements by A320 aircraft on the Norfolk Island – Australia services and 50 passenger Turbo-Prop aircraft movements on the Norfolk Island- Auckland service were adjusted manually to produce forecast flight frequencies in line with required airline seat capacity levels.
Based on the above, the ‘Base Level Forecast’ was developed for the period 2020 to 2040. Passenger traffic in the forecast period was forecast to reach 64,800 passengers in FY2020, rising to 81,200 passengers in FY2030, and to 92,200 passengers by FY2040. These forecast passenger levels would result from 5 weekly services on the two routes to the Australian east cost (Sydney and Brisbane) over the coming 5 years, increasing to 6 weekly services through to FY2036, and 7 weekly services thereafter to the end of the forecast period. On the single New Zealand route to Auckland the forecast reflects the passenger traffic generated on this route from the single weekly service until FY2022 which would increase to two weekly services to FY2032, and three weekly services thereafter.
The ‘Base Level’ air passenger forecast for the period 2020 to 2040 is shown in the graph in Exhibit 3-11, which also provides a forecast of the year-on- year growth in passenger traffic levels through this period. It is to be noted that the increase in passenger traffic growth rate for 2020 results from an expected 10% increase in the seat capacity offered between Australia and Norfolk Island in 2020, reflecting an increased capacity on the Brisbane route particularly.
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Exhibit 3-11: Norfolk Island Airport Base Passenger Traffic Forecast
Peak Week FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 FY39 FY40
Code C – Australia 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7
Turbo Prop – New 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Zealand
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3.4.2 “High” Passenger Traffic Forecast
For the ‘High’ traffic forecast, while visitor traffic remains dominant, the drivers of increased passenger traffic differ from those applied to generate the ‘Base’ level forecast described in Section 5.1. For the ‘High’ passenger traffic forecast, the traffic drivers assumed and adopted for forecasting were:
Forecast Traffic Drivers:
• Resident Outbound Passenger Traffic Forecast: o The propensity by local residents to travel by air is assumed to increase over time, from 2.6 trips per resident per year currently to 2.9 trips per resident in FY2040 (representing a growth of 0.5% per annum). This is the same growth rate in trips per resident used in the Base forecast. o The resident population of the Island is assumed to increase from 1,756 in FY2019 to 1,950 in FY2040 (representing a growth of 0.5% per annum). The forecast resident population of the Island in the High forecast is the same as used to develop the Base forecast.
• Visitor Inbound Passenger Traffic Forecast: o Norfolk Island’s peak tourism year was FY2001 (40,221 visitors) o At an average stay of 7 nights, this would translate into 282,000 visitor nights, well below the theoretical total capacity of around 600,000 bed nights per annum o During FY2019, assuming an unchanged average stay of 7 nights, 26,100 visitors are estimated to have spent around 183,000 visitor nights on Norfolk Island § Visitor inbound passenger traffic was then calculated as follows: § Visitor nights are assumed to increase from 183,000 in FY2019 to 282,000 in FY2040 § The average visitor stay is reduced from 7.0 in FY2019 to 4.0 in FY2040 (reflecting current and expected ongoing changes in tourist travel patterns) § Visitor inbound passenger traffic is then calculated as the product of visitor nights divided by the average duration of stay
Forecast Logic:
• The ‘High’ forecast has been developed as an unconstrained demand forecast, as determined by application of traffic drivers (see above) • An overlay of capacity development (analytically assessed for FY20 and FY21) has been applied, and • A bottom-up, supply-based traffic for FY2020 and FY2021 has been derived, with the FY2021 traffic base grown at unconstrained growth rates thereafter to 2040.
Peak Week Frequency: • During the most recent 12 month period, March 2019 produced the most passenger movements (around 6,500 or 10.3% of the 12 month total) at an average effective load factor of 92%. • To estimate future peak week movements, future annual forecasts were multiplied by 10.3% (to create peak month traffic), and divided by 92%
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(to create a peak month capacity requirement). Code C aircraft movements (A320 on the Norfolk Island to Australia services and 50- passenger Turbo-Prop aircraft on the Auckland service) were adjusted manually to produce forecast flight frequencies in line with required capacity levels.
On the basis of the above, the ‘High’ Passenger Forecast’ was developed for the period 2020 to 2040. Passenger traffic in the forecast period was forecast to reach 64,800 passengers in FY2020 (as for the Base Level forecast), rising to 96,400 passengers in FY2030, and to 151,800 passengers by FY2040. These forecast passenger levels would result from 5 weekly services on the two routes to the Australian east cost (Sydney and Brisbane) over the coming 4 years, increasing to 6 weekly services through to FY2028, 7 weekly services to FY2032, 8 weekly services to 2035, 9 weekly services to FY2038 and 10 weekly services thereafter to the end of the forecast period. On the single New Zealand route to Auckland the forecast reflects the passenger traffic generated on this route from the single weekly service until FY2021, which would increase to 2 weekly services to FY2026, 3 weekly services to FY2030, 4 weekly services to FY2034, 5 weekly services to FY 2037, and 6 weekly services thereafter.
The ‘High’ air passenger forecast for the period 2020 to 2040 is shown in the graph in Exhibit 3-12, which also provides a forecast of the year-on-year growth in passenger traffic levels through this period. It is to be noted that the increase in passenger traffic growth rate for 2020 results from an expected 10% increase in the seat capacity offered between Australia and Norfolk Island in 2020, reflecting an increased capacity on the Brisbane route particularly.
It should be noted that the “High” passenger traffic forecast should not be seen as purely aspirational, or as an upper boundary for infrastructure development purposes. It is felt that the “High” forecast is achievable, especially over the 20 year planning horizon, but will not just happen whilst pursuing a “business as usual” approach to marketing.
Ultimately, passenger traffic development to and from Norfolk Island will remain a function of available air service capacity, which itself is a function of marketing the Norfolk Island tourism product. To achieve its full potential for passenger traffic development, Norfolk Island would need to define what its ‘full potential’ really is and answer the following:
• How many people (residents and visitors) can the Island accommodate at the same time based on the three main restricting factors (water, waste and power);
• How much tourism, measured in terms of ‘visitor nights’ rather than visitor numbers, can be targeted to achieve a balance between the noted infrastructure restrictions and economic growth and well-being;
• How much aviation capacity (points of origin, aircraft types, frequency of services) is required to accommodate the “full potential”, whilst reserving adequate capacity for travel by residents
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The answer to the above would ideally become an input into ongoing discussions between the Island and the Federal Government, as its underwriting agreements with air service providers should be structured to achieve long term objectives, and not just short term capacity requirements.
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Exhibit 3-12: Norfolk Island Airport High Passenger Traffic Forecast
Peak Week FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 FY39 FY40
Code C – Australia 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10
Turbo Prop – New 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 Zealand
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3.4.3 “Low” Passenger Traffic Forecast
As with the development of a ‘High’ passenger traffic forecast, a ‘Low’ Passenger Traffic Forecast has also been created to identify traffic development if other influences do not develop as expected, and the resulting impact on passenger air traffic is to achieve below the expected level.
Forecast Traffic Drivers:
• Resident Outbound Passenger Traffic Forecast: o The propensity for Island residents to travel would decrease over time from 2.6 trips per resident per year to 2.3 trips in FY2040 (representing a decline of 0.6% per annum). The Low forecast therefore assumes a reduction in annual resident trips from a growth of 0.5% in resident trips per annum in the High and Base forecasts, down to a decline of 0.6% per annum in the Low forecast. o The resident population of the Island is assumed to remain static and not grow through the forecasting period to 2040 with an unchanged population level of 1756 residents.
• Visitor Inbound Passenger Traffic Forecast: o The demand for inbound visitors is assumed to grow at the Australian domestic tourism level based on the Tourism Research Australia forecast) o From FY2029 the growth rate in inbound visitors of 1.1% is reduced gradually to 0.6% by FY2040
Forecast Logic:
• An unconstrained demand forecast has been developed using the identified traffic drivers (see above) • An overlay of airline seat capacity development (analytically assessed for FY2020 and FY2021) has been applied: • A bottom-up, supply-based traffic for FY2020 and FY2021, has been developed, with the FY2021 traffic base grown at unconstrained growth rates thereafter.
Peak Week Frequency:
During the most recent 12 month period, March 2019 produced the most passenger movements (around 6,500 or 10.3% of the 12 month total) at an average effective load factor of 92%. To estimate peak week movements, future annual forecasts were multiplied by 10.3% (to create peak month traffic), and divided by 92% (to create peak month capacity requirement); Code C aircraft movements (A320 services for the Norfolk Island-Australia services and 50-passener Turbo-Prop services for the Norfolk Island– Auckland services) were adjusted manually to produce the forecast flight frequencies in line with required capacity levels.
On the basis of the above, the ‘Low’ Passenger Forecast’ was developed for the period 2020 to 2040. Passenger traffic in the forecast period was forecast to reach 64,800 passengers in FY2020 (as for the Base Level and
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High forecast), rising to 72,200 passengers in FY2030, and to 76,800 passengers by FY2040. These forecast passenger levels would result from 5 weekly services on the two routes to the Australian east cost (Sydney and Brisbane) through to FY2031, increasing to 6 weekly services through to the forecast period. On the single New Zealand route to Auckland the forecast reflects the passenger traffic generated on this route from the single weekly service until FY2021, which would increase to 2 weekly services through to the end of the forecasting period.
The ‘Low’ air passenger forecast for the period 2020 to 2040 is shown in the graph in Exhibit 3-13, which also provides a forecast of the year-on-year growth in passenger traffic levels through this period. It is to be noted that the increase in passenger traffic growth rate for 2020 results from an expected 10% increase in the seat capacity offered between Australia and Norfolk Island in 2020, reflecting an increased capacity on the Brisbane route particularly
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Exhibit 3-13 Norfolk Island Airport Low Traffic Forecast
Peak Week FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 FY39 FY40
Code C – Australia 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
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Turbo Prop – New 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Zealand
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3.5 Summary of Air Traffic Forecasts For Norfolk Island
This report has documented the air traffic forecast for passenger traffic and commercial passenger aircraft services for the period FY2020 through to FY2040. Three levels of air traffic forecast have been developed, representing a ‘Base Level’ forecast as well as ‘High’ and ‘Low’ forecasts, reflecting more optimistic and pessimistic assumptions. In Exhibit 3-14 below, these forecasts are summarised for the FY2020, FY2030 and FY2040 timeframes. The forecast number of weekly flights for the Australian services and for service to New Zealand are also provided for the same dates.
Exhibit 3-14 – Summary of Forecast Air Traffic for Norfolk Island in FY2020, FY2030 and FY2040
Forecast Forecast Traffic Type Financial Year Scenario 2020 2030 2040 Passengers 64,800 81,200 92,200 Base Level Weekly Services Australia 5 6 7 Weekly Services NZ 1 2 3 Passengers 64,800 96,400 151,800 High Forecast Weekly Services Australia 5 7 10 Weekly Services NZ 1 3 6 Passengers 64,800 72,200 76,800 Low Forecast Weekly Services Australia 5 5 6 Weekly Services NZ 1 2 2
It is noted that the ‘Base Level’ forecast is the expected air traffic forecast based on a ‘business as usual’ approach and a modest expansion of airline seat capacity over time. The ‘High’ forecast is believed to be achievable but will require effort on the part of the various agencies and interests involved so as to encourage a higher growth in the airline capacity serving the Island and, particularly in the manner in which Norfolk Island is marketed to potential Australian and New Zealand tourists.
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4.0 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT REQUIREMENTS
4.1 Passenger Terminal Building Capacity
An analysis of the capacity of the passenger terminal has been carried out to identify which processors and parts of the building are operating adequately under current passenger loads, and may therefore have the ability to accommodate increased passenger demand, and which processors and areas are already functioning beyond their estimated capacity, and would therefore require expansion in order to provide an acceptable level of service to passengers. This analysis has involved assessing the capacity of the various terminal sub-systems, processing functions and holding areas of the terminal building under both current and future passenger flow conditions, and understanding the interactions and interdependencies between these subsystems and areas in order to determine why congestion occurs in some areas and not in others.
For instance, for the arriving flow of passengers, the baggage delivery system, and the pace at which it operates, is observed to result in congestion in the bag claim area, while the downstream processor, the Border Force Customs check, may be temporarily underutilised and be operating well below capacity initially. However, once a good flow of inbound bags is established, congestion eases in the bag claim area once passengers have retrieved their bags, and congestion then shifts to the Border Force Customs processing area, in which a considerable queue can develop as the rate of customs processing is lower than achieved in the bag claim area. Similarly, for the departing passenger flow, although the check-in area can become congested initially, this eases and congestion then shifts to the non-secure departure holding area, with some passengers overflowing from this area into the ‘garden’ space outside the front of the building. This persists until the secure departure lounge is opened, the hand baggage screening process commences, and passengers are able to file into the secure lounge. However, during the hand baggage screening process congestion builds in the non-secure departure holding area in the form of a queue in front of the doors to the screening unit. This queue persists while passengers are processed through the screening unit into the secure departure lounge. A further shift of congestion then occurs in the secure departure lounge once a flight has cleared the security screening process due to the limited space and seating in that area.
These instances of congestion in the arriving and departing passenger processing in the terminal building point to an excess of passengers in any particular space at any one time, indicating an overall insufficiency of capacity. The fact that congestion shifts from one area to another as processing takes place, illustrates how each processing function is governed by the immediately preceding process, as well as by the immediately following process, indicating that sufficient processing and holding space must be provided in each of the processing and holding areas of a building to ensure a smooth flow of passengers through the processing systems of the PTB.
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The sub-areas of the PTB accommodating the passenger processing, holding and circulation sub-systems comprising the passenger flow, are normally sized on the basis of a selected level-of-service (LOS) category specification, defined in IATA’s Airport Development Reference Manual (ADRM). The standard LOS adopted for the demand-capacity assessment of the PTB at the Norfolk Island International Airport has been the IATA “Optimum” category, which equates to a level of service and comfort considered to be acceptable to passengers.
The following Exhibit 4-1 provides the results of the capacity analysis of the existing passenger terminal based on the peak hour passenger flow for the critical aircraft types currently serving the airport, and expected to serve the airport in the future. These are the A320 aircraft for the Australian flight sectors, assuming full passenger loads of 168 passengers, and a 50- passenger turboprop or regional jet aircraft for the New Zealand service to Auckland, which is assumed to be operating at a seat factor of 90%, with 45 seats filled.
In Exhibit 4-1, the existing passenger processing and services functions are compared to the spaces and facilities required to meet passenger demand based on ensuring an IATA ‘Optimum’ Level of Service in all areas of the terminal. For each processing function, the surplus or shortfall in space and facilities is identified and the capacity condition of the terminal is indicated.
As may be noted from Exhibit 4-1, while the passenger terminal has a few areas or systems that are currently operating well and below capacity, and would do so in the future under future peak hour demand conditions, there are several critical areas where there are shortfalls in capacity. The primary areas where the passenger terminal does not have capacity for current and future demand are:
• Check-in • Security processing • Departure lounge • Baggage reclaim • Arrivals hall • Baggage makeup • Security CBS • Baggage breakdown • Offices • Toilets • Kerbside Pick-Up/Drop-Off Area
Overall, the capacity analysis of the existing passenger terminal building shows that the present building provides only 52% of the amount of space required for passenger processing and other defined services. While the present terminal building provides 1,385m² of space that is usable for passenger processing and service functions, the requirement based on the existing and forecast passenger loading is for 2,660m², representing a space deficiency of 1,275m². Effectively, the passenger terminal at the Norfolk Island Airport needs to be just over twice is present size to accommodate current and future passenger traffic at an acceptable level of service.
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Exhibit 4-1 Capacity Analysis for Norfolk Island Airport Passenger Terminal Building
Passenger Terminal Building Capacity Analysis –IATA Optimum Level of Service Processor Area / Units Current Required Surplus (+) Capacity Provision Shortfall (-) Condition (Existing as % of Required) Check-In 1 Area (m²) 129 230 - 101 56% Counters (No.) 4 5 -1 80% 2 Self-Serve (No.) 0 0 0 N/A (Note 2) 2 Bag Drop (No.) 0 0 0 N/A (Note 2) Security (Combined) Area (m²) 49 150 -101 33% Security Lanes (No.) 1 1 0 100% Passport Control Area (m²) 0 60 -60 0% (Emigration) Passport Control 0 2 -2 0% 3 Desks Smart Gates (No.) 0 0 0 N/A (Note 3) Departure Lounge Area (m²) 138 270 -132 51% (Domestic) 4 Dom+Café/Dom+Int Departure Lounge Area (m²) 0 90 -90 0% (International) (Note 4) Passport Control 5 Area (m²) 100 100 0 100% (Immigration) Passport Control 4 2 +2 200% 3 Desks Smart Gates (No.) 0 0 0 N/A (Note 3) Baggage Claim Area (m²) 239 300 -61 80% (Domestic) Carousels (No.) 1 1 0 100% Bag Claim Length (m) 35.4 39 -3.6 91% Baggage Claim 6 Area (m²) 0 180 -180 0% (International) Carousels (No.) 0 1 -1 (Note 6) Bag Claim Length (m) 0 12 -12 Customs Area (m²) 70 70 0 100% Customs Desks (No.) 2 1 +1 200% Arrivals Hall Area (m²) 48 180 -132 27% Services Baggage Make-Up Area (m²) 64 260 -131 50% Security CBS Area (m²) 65 Baggage Breakdown Area (m²) 35 170 -135 21% Concessions Area (m²) 66 55 +11 121% Airline & Airport Admin Area (m²) 46 60 -14 77% Offices Circulation Area (m²) 286 220 +66 130% Toilets Area (m²) 73 110 -37 66% Services & Structure Area (m²) 42 70 -28 Pick-Up/Drop-Off Kerbs Length (m) 40 120 -80 33% Totals Area (m²) 1385 2660 -1275 52% Notes: 1. Allows for simultaneous domestic and international check-in operations 2. Assumes Self-serve check-in and bag drop would not be implemented 3. Assumes Smart Gates would not be implemented for Passport Control 4. Combined size of airside departure lounge includes café space and associated seating area 5. Immigration space and processing facilities based on international passengers only 6. Assumes the same baggage claim belt is used for both domestic and international flights and that arriving domestic and international flights would not occur at the same time.
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4.2 Passenger Apron
The current RPT traffic demand requires at least two Code C stands are available to accommodate an RPT service from Australia (Brisbane or Sydney) and the RPT service from Auckland. Although these operations are currently not scheduled to occur at the same time, due to delays, the two flights can be on the ground at the same time. The current capacity of the apron is for two Code C aircraft and therefore, the apron is operating at capacity at times. In addition, there are instances where the airport receives an itinerant aircraft from neighbouring countries, or from New Zealand and Australia. When more than two of these aircraft arrive, and/or one of the RPT services is early or late, the airport does not have capacity to accommodate all aircraft. The apron therefore needs to be increased in size to accommodate additional parked aircraft to ensure that demand for both RPT and itinerant aircraft parking can always be accommodated through the Master Plan period.
4.3 Air Freight Facility
The existing Air Freight Facility is too small for the current air freight volumes and would block any expansion, or redevelopment, of the Passenger Terminal. New locations for the Air Freight facility have been identified to allow for freight processing and staging of freight. A new freight facility is needed to cater for processing and staging of air freight for a single B737 freighter as well as for belly cargo shipments.
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5.0 SITE DEVELOPMENT CONCEPTS
5.1 Passenger Terminal
As the capacity analysis shows, the existing passenger terminal building is too small to handle the current and forecast number of passengers as summarised in the “current” and “required” columns in the demand-capacity assessment shown in Exhibit 4-1.
The master planning process has included a task to identify options for how the capacity shortfall might be addressed. The Norfolk Island Regional Council (NIRC) has requested that several solutions be considered, investigated and incorporated where feasible, and this section addresses that request. NIRC has particularly requested that the following passenger terminal options be considered for the Master Plan:
1. Development of a ‘standalone’ structure adjacent to the existing terminal building to enable the arrival and departure processing functions to be split between the existing terminal and a new building; 2. Addition of an air bridge (or passenger boarding bridge) to enhance the embarking and disembarking process; and 3. Construction of a new passenger terminal designed and sized to accommodate the necessary passenger flows and services within a single new structure.
The option to develop a separate, standalone, structure, as requested by the NIRC, has not been developed further due to practical considerations which favour centralised passenger processing with all functions under one roof. Also favouring the centralised approach is the matter of staffing and staff deployment, as well as efficiency in provision and use of facilities, services and systems required in the building.
Similarly, the request for an option where an airbridge would be provided, has been considered, but not pursued in detail. The suggestion to provide an airbridge would both facilitate disabled passengers, or passengers requiring special assistance, and provide protection for passengers from rain when enplaning or deplaning. However, while an airbridge would address these issues, incorporating an airbridge does present other issues that would then need to be solved. For example, an airbridge allows passengers to access an aircraft at the level of the aircraft door sill (i.e. 2.8m to 3.5m above apron level), which is a similar height to the floor height of the first story of a double story building. This means that passengers would need to be transported to an upper level of the terminal building in order to use an airbridge, and this would then require an additional floor level, ramps, escalators and lifts to be installed into the building. The present building would not be able to incorporate a second-floor level and, therefore, the fixed portion of the airbridge would extend a separate structure, from the face of the building and encroach onto the apron. Use of an airbridge would also require additional aircraft handling equipment to be available as aircraft
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would have to be pushed back from a parking stand, rather than to use a self-manoeuvring operation (as is the current practice). Mobile ramp solutions are available, and Burnt Pine Travel has procured a mobile ramp system from Aviramp that is expected to be in service during 2020. The mobile ramp will allow wheelchair bound passengers to be assisted down the sloped ramps along with ambulatory passengers, and this solution would provide a similar level of service as available from an airbridge, and would remove the need for the complexity in building design represented by the need for a second floor on the terminal building to accommodate an airbridge.
Considering the various possibilities, including the suggestions from the NIRC, the master plan team has identified three alternative options for the terminal building that would address the space deficiencies, and bring the level of service of the building up to the IATA ‘Optimum’ standard. Each alternative takes a slightly different approach, and are defined as follows:
1. Terminal Option T1 – Minimal Development of the Existing Terminal, 2. Terminal Option T2 - Medium Level Development of the Existing Terminal, and 3. Terminal Option T3 - Development of a New Terminal Building
5.1.1 Terminal Option T1 - Minimal Development Option
This option aims to meet the minimum requirements of the passenger forecast at a minimal cost while limiting disruption to the existing terminal building. The aim of this option was to investigate an “add-on” approach, similar to adding a separate stand-alone structure, but by means of an expansion of the existing building to resolve the space deficiency of the existing terminal.
This option requires renovation of the existing building as well as extensions to the structure to provide the necessary additional space. An additional vault would be added to each end of the building and the landside forecourt would be enclosed. The resulting terminal building increases in floor area by 976m². All buildings surrounding the passenger terminal such as the old freight facility and GSE maintenance facility would be removed. The result is an improved Level of Service which will provide the IATA Optimum level of service in most parts of the terminal. However, the added space does not fully make up for the assessed space deficiency and therefore this approach fails to address all of the identified issues. A perspective, illustration of the floor plan, and passenger flow plan for Option T1 can be found in Exhibit 5- 2, 5-3 and 5-4, while a description of the features of Option T1 is provided in the table in Exhibit 5-1. An analysis of the space provision and capacity of Option T1 (and for Options T2 and T3 for comparison is provided in Exhibit 5-13).
Option T1 - Functional Description: • Demolish existing internal areas
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o Baggage claim o Customs and Biosecurity o Check-in area, and o Arrivals amenities • Demolish exiting structure o Baggage make-up area o Cargo terminal, and o Baggage breakdown, Customs and Biosecurity offices • Construct new addition to: o Central forecourt enclosure o North-eastern extension for check-in, baggage make-up and departure lounge o South-western extension for baggage claim, Customs and Biosecurity, and o Extension to existing arrivals hall • Reconfigure: o Existing concourse for new passenger security screening and international departure lounge o Arrivals hall amenities o Immigration, customs and quarantine areas • General renovation and modernization of external finishes, and • Reconfiguration of car park
Option T1 - Benefits • Terminal can remain partially operational during works • Likely to cost less than new terminal • Café/Bar moved to airside to increase effective lounge area and encourage passengers to move through to lounge earlier • More orderly and safer kerbside interface • Existing architectural style is retained, and • Simplified and more efficient baggage handling process
Option T1 - Drawbacks • Construction works will need to be staged to limit disruption to terminal operations • Domestic departure lounge still not optimal size when an international flight is also departing • Arrivals hall and baggage claim area not at optimal size
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• No covered meet and greet area immediately outside terminal • Existing terminal may have to be brought up to current building standards due to proportion of additional works. This may add additional cost/complexity • Some areas are slightly constrained due to the existing structural layout • Terminal location is already fixed • As terminal floor level is fixed, the apron will remain higher than the terminal
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Exhibit 5-1: Summary Table of Features of Option T1
Check in 1A Current number of check-in desks is suitable for the current number of scheduled aircraft. An additional check-in desk for smaller operator or international flight has been provided Slight Insufficiency arises if an international flight or different airline is checking-in simultaneously 2A More queuing space provided. Additional circulation space behind should allow for some overflow Security 3A Sufficient space provided for equipment and PAX processing (combined) 4A Short divestment length 5A Composure area provided 6A Dedicated queue space provided. Size is adequate for the number of peak hour passengers 7A Sufficient number of security lanes provided 8A No design solution is feasible as this is reliant on operational procedures Emigration 9A Dedicated area provided to allow international operations Departure Lounge - 10A Departure Lounge holding area increased by 91m2. Domestic Adding an airside café/bar will also provide additional dwelling space for passengers thereby increasing lounge capacity to within 9% of “optimum” level of service. 11A When international flights are not occurring simultaneously, the international lounge will be combined with the domestic lounge to achieve an “optimum” level of service Departure Lounge - 12A New international departure lounge added which satisfies “optimum” International level of service requirements
Immigration 13A Adequate number of immigrations desks 14A Queue location is separate from other passenger flows 15A Immigration located prior to baggage claim Baggage Claim - 16A There is sufficient bag retrieval area around the baggage claim Domestic carousel, however circulation between the customs area is limited. Note: Also refer to Baggage Break-Down 27A 17A Sufficient frontage length provided Baggage Claim - 18A It is assumed that providing an additional baggage claim device International solely for international operations would be an unnecessary expense Customs 19A Customs layout facilitates orderly operations. Arrivals Hall 20A Arrivals hall is small however, being connected directly to the landside concourse there is considerable room to spill over. In such circumstances there may be a clash between passengers entering the passenger screening area and meeters and greeters. Operational controls may therefore need to be implemented. Baggage Make-up 21A Slightly smaller than recommended however it will accommodate a tug towing up to 2 baggage trailers 22A Forward in-forward out flow is achieved allowing more efficient loading of baggage Security CBS 23A There is sufficient circulation space around the CBS machine 24A CBS is connected to check-in conveyor alleviating some manual handling
Baggage Break 25A Suitable Area Down 26A Accommodate a tug towing up to 3 baggage trailers and adequate conveyor unloading length. Forward in-forward out flow is achieved allowing more efficient loading of baggage
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27A Fully covered Concessions 28A Airside concession provided adding capacity to Domestic Lounge Offices 29A Larger number of offices provided Circulation 30A Circulation has been provided within holding areas and between processing areas except for baggage claim area. Toilets 31A Number of toilets have been increased. Kerbside 32A Closest drop off lane is approximately 10m from the terminal which may increase security concerns due to proximity of vehicles to the terminal. However, the 10m distance does allow enough room for passenger safety 33A Two drop-off lanes have been provided so up to 6 buses/mini vans can park end to end with direct access for passengers from the kerbside. Services 34A Services requirements to be determined during detailed design of future option 35A Services requirements to be determined during detailed design of future option Other 37A Design requirements to be determined during detailed design of future option No open courtyards to overlook airside 38A Terminal is recommended to be fully enclosed Note: 1. 36 not included in this table 2. Not all numbers are displayed on circulation analysis plan
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5.1.2 Terminal Option T2 - Medium Development Option
This option aims to meet the minimum requirements of the passenger forecast through expansion of the existing terminal. The aim was to investigate how the additional area required to increase the terminal to an “optimum” level of service might be accommodated. This Option was conceived on the basis of providing an airbridge access for Code C aircraft as had been requested in the initial brief. However, as operational processes and alternative equipment were identified that superseded the need for an airbridge, it was no longer deemed necessary to incorporate the airbridge into the concept. However, the overall space provision in the Medium Option (T2) provides a better level of service than the Minimal Option (T1) and for that reason has been retained as a significantly improved solution for consideration.
Option T2 comprises renovation of the existing terminal and the addition of three new vaults, along with enclosing the central courtyard and forecourt. This option adds 1,060m² to the floor area of the current passenger terminal, which comes close to making up for the present space deficiency. To construct the additional two vaults to the northeast end of the building, and a single vault to the southwest end of the building, the existing freight facility and GSE maintenance facilities will need to be removed. A perspective, illustration of the floor plan, and passenger flow plan for Option T2 can be found in Exhibit 5-6, 5-7 and 5-8, while a description of the features of Option T2 is provided in the table in Exhibit 5-5. An analysis of the space provision and capacity of Option T2 (and for Options T1 and T3 for comparison is provided in Exhibit 5-13).
Option T2 - Functional Description • Demolish existing internal areas o Baggage claim o Customs and Biosecurity o Check-in area, and o Arrivals amenities o Departure lounge amenities • Demolish exiting structure o Baggage make-up area o Cargo terminal, and o Baggage breakdown, Customs and Biosecurity offices • Construct new addition to: o Central landside forecourt enclosure o Central airside extension for domestic departure lounge o New north-eastern extension for check-in, baggage make- up, security and emigration
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o Baggage claim, Customs and Biosecurity extension to existing arrivals hall • Reconfigure: o Existing concourse for new airside and landside amenities o Arrivals hall amenities o Immigration, customs and quarantine areas • General renovation and modernization of external finishes, and • Reconfiguration of car park
Option T2 - Benefits • Terminal can remain partially operational during works • Likely to cost less than a new terminal • Café/Bar moved to airside to increase effective lounge area and encourage passengers to move through to lounge earlier • More orderly and safer kerbside interface • Existing architectural style is retained, and • Simplified and more efficient baggage handling process
Option T2 - Drawbacks • Construction works will need to be staged to limit disruption to terminal operations • Domestic departure lounge still not optimal size when an international flight is also departing • Arrivals hall and baggage claim area not at optimal size • No covered meet and greet area immediately outside terminal • Existing terminal may have to be brought up to current building standards due to proportion of additional works. This may add additional cost/complexity • Some areas are slightly constrained due to the existing structural layout • Terminal location is already fixed • As the terminal floor level is fixed, the apron will remain higher than the terminal. .
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Exhibit 5-5: Summary Table of Features of Option T2
Check in 1B Provided number of check-in desks is suitable and allows for multiple domestic or international airlines operating simultaneously 2B More queuing space provided. Additional circulation space behind should allow for some overflow Security 3B Sufficient space provided for equipment and PAX processing (combined) 4B Short divestment length 5B Composure area provided 6B Dedicated queue space provided. Size is adequate for the number of peak hour passengers 7B Sufficient number of security lanes provided 8B No design solution is feasible as this is reliant on operational procedures Emigration 9B Dedicated area provided to allow international operations Departure Lounge - 10B Departure Lounge holding area increased by 33m2. Domestic Adding an airside café/bar will also provide additional dwelling space for passengers but will only increase lounge capacity to within approximately 50% of the “optimum” level of service requirement. It should be noted that additional circulation space and the second concession stand will increase the holding capacity of the room 11B When international flights are not occurring simultaneously, the international lounge will be combined with the domestic lounge to achieve an “optimum” level of service Departure Lounge - 12B New international departure lounge added which satisfies “optimum” International level of service requirements
Immigration 13B Adequate number of immigrations desks 14B Queue location is separate from other passenger flows 15B Immigration located prior to baggage claim Baggage Claim - 16B There is sufficient retrieval area around the baggage claim carousel, Domestic however circulation between the customs area is limited. Note: Also refer to Baggage Break-Down 27B 17B Sufficient frontage length provided Baggage Claim - 18B It is assumed that providing an additional baggage claim device International solely for international operations would be an unnecessary expense Customs 19B Customs layout facilitates orderly operations. Arrivals Hall 20B Arrivals hall is small and meeters and greeters will most likely need to congregate outside the terminal. Baggage Make-up 21B Slightly smaller than recommended however it will accommodate a tug towing up to 3 dollies 22B Forward in-forward out flow is achieved allowing more efficient loading of baggage Security CBS 23B There is sufficient circulation space around the CBS machine 24B CBS is connected to check-in conveyor alleviating some manual handling
Baggage Break 25B Slightly less than required but still suitable for proposed operations Down 26B Accommodate a tug towing up to 3 dollies and adequate conveyor unloading length. Forward in-forward out flow is achieved allowing more efficient loading of baggage 27B Fully covered Concessions 28B Two airside concessions provided adding capacity to Domestic Lounge Offices 29B Larger number of offices provided
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Circulation 30B Circulation has been provided within holding areas and between processing areas except for baggage claim area. This helps wayfinding, creates smoother passenger flows and therefore adds to the level of service experience Toilets 31B Number and layout of toilets have been increased including door- less entry where possible Curbside 32B Large separation between traffic and terminal façade provides increased security 33B A single drop-off lane has been provided so up to 4 buses/mini vans can park end to end with direct access for passengers from the kerbside Services 34B Services requirements to be determined during detailed design of future option 35B Services requirements to be determined during detailed design of future option Other 37B Design requirements to be determined during detailed design of future option No open courtyards to overlook airside 38B Terminal is recommended to be fully enclosed Note: 1. 36 not included in this table 2. Not all numbers are displayed on circulation analysis plan
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5.1.3 Terminal Option T3 - New Terminal Development Option
This option aims to meet the requirements of the passenger forecast based on a “start-from-scratch” approach, with a new building built to accommodate future passenger traffic and processing needs. A new passenger terminal is proposed, either on the site of the existing passenger terminal building or on a new site at the airport. This approach allows for better planning of space allocation and passenger flow. The concept provides a roof supported by columns around the outside, permitting a fairly flexible interior space layout with non-structural partitions that permit reconfiguration of internal spaces in the future. This New Terminal Option results in 2950m2 of terminal floor space, which meets the space requirement determined through the capacity analysis, and also enables an efficient layout, a better level of service than the other options considered that renovate and expand the existing building. The layout also permits the ability to change and modify the layout and space allocation to accommodate changes in traffic characteristics and processing requirements. As conceived, the new terminal would be constructed on the site of the present building, which would be demolished. This makes construction of the new terminal difficult, as passenger processing would still need to be carried out during construction and it is likely that some form of temporary accommodation for passenger processing would need to be provided during the construction works. This option was conceived based on placing the new terminal in the same site as the existing terminal but a new terminal building could also be placed further towards the Power Station, re-oriented through 90 degrees, or at a new location, resulting in a redevelopment of the current terminal site to accommodate a re-oriented apron. If this option is pursued, an exercise in optimising the location, constructability and cost would need to be undertaken as an initial step in the design process. A perspective, illustration of the floor plan, and passenger flow plan for Option T3 can be found in Exhibit 5-10, 5-11 and 5-12, while a description of the features of Option T3 is provided in the table in Exhibit 5-9. An analysis of the space provision and capacity of Option T3 (and for Options T1 and T2 for comparison is provided in Exhibit 5-13).
Option T3 - Functional Description • Demolish existing terminal and carpark • Construct new terminal and carpark
Option T3 - Benefits • Terminal can be relocated to maximise other airside and landside functions • Café/Bar moved to airside to increase effective lounge area and encourage passengers to move through to lounge earlier. • Additional retail area accommodated in airside and possible landside areas may lead to additional revenue • More orderly and safer kerbside interface
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• New architectural style • Future proofing can be implemented • Simplified and more efficient baggage handling process • This has the largest domestic lounge of all options considered • Designed for easier future expansion • Will comply with the current building codes
Option T3 - Drawbacks • Likely to be highest cost option • Terminal operations will be disrupted by demolition of the existing terminal
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Exhibit 5-9: Summary Table of Features of Option T3
Check in 1C Provided number of check-in desks is suitable and allows for multiple domestic or international airlines operating simultaneously 2C More queuing space provided. Additional circulation space behind should allow for some overflow Security 3C Sufficient space provided for equipment and PAX processing (combined) 4C Short divestment length 5C Limited composure area provided 6C Dedicated queue space provided. Size is adequate for the number of peak hour passengers 7C Sufficient number of security lanes provided 8C No design solution is feasible as this is reliant on operational procedures Emigration 9C Dedicated area provided to allow international operations Departure Lounge - 10C Departure Lounge holding area increased by 95m2. Domestic Adding an airside café/bar will also provide additional dwelling space for passengers thereby increasing lounge capacity to within 13% of “optimum” level of service. It should be noted that additional circulation space and the second concession stand will increase the holding capacity of the room. 11C When international flights are not occurring simultaneously, the international lounge will be combined with the domestic lounge to achieve an “optimum” level of service Departure Lounge - 12C New international departure lounge added which satisfies “optimum” International level of service requirements
Immigration 13C Adequate number of immigrations desks 14C Queue location is separate from other passenger flows 15C Immigration located prior to baggage claim Baggage Claim - 16C There is sufficient retrieval area around the baggage claim carousel, Domestic however circulation between the customs area is limited. Note: Also refer to Baggage Break-Down 27C 17C Sufficient frontage length provided Baggage Claim - 18C It is assumed that providing an additional baggage claim device International solely for international operations would be an unnecessary expense Customs 19C Customs layout facilitates orderly operations. Arrivals Hall 20C Arrivals hall is suitable and being connected directly to the landside concourse there is considerable room to spill over. Baggage Make-up 21C Slightly smaller than recommended however it will accommodate a tug towing up to 3 dollies 22C Forward in-forward out flow is achieved allowing more efficient loading of baggage Security CBS 23C There is sufficient circulation space around the CBS machine 24C CBS is connected to check-in conveyor alleviating some manual handling
Baggage Break 25C Suitable Area Down 26C Accommodate a tug towing up to 3 dollies and adequate conveyor unloading length. Forward in-forward out flow is achieved allowing more efficient loading of baggage 27C Fully covered Concessions 28C Two airside concessions provided adding capacity to Domestic Lounge
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There is considerable space in the landside concourse to accommodate a small landside concession in the future Offices 29C Larger number of offices provided Circulation 30C Circulation has been provided within holding areas and between processing areas except for baggage claim area. This helps wayfinding, creates smoother passenger flows and therefore adds to the level of service experience Toilets 31C Number and layout of toilets have been increased including door- less entry where possible Curbside 32C Large separation between traffic and terminal façade provides increased security 33C A single drop-off lane has been provided so up to 4 buses/mini vans can park end to end with direct access for passengers from the kerbside. Services 34C Services requirements to be determined during detailed design of future option 35C Services requirements to be determined during detailed design of future option Other 37C Design requirements to be determined during detailed design of future option No open courtyards to overlook airside 38C Terminal is recommended to be fully enclosed Note: 1. 36 not included in this table 2. Not all numbers are displayed on circulation analysis plan
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Exhibit 5-13 Capacity Analysis for Norfolk Island Airport Passenger Terminal Building Passenger Terminal Building Capacity Analysis –IATA Optimum Level of T1 T2 T3 Service Processor Area / Units Current Required Surplus Capacity Value Surplus % Valu Surplus % Value Surplus % Provision (+) Condition (+) e (+) (+) Shortfall (Existing Shortfall Shortfall Shortfall (-) as % of (-) (-) (-) Required) Check-In Area (m²) 129 230 - 91 59% 247 +17 107% 254 +24 110% 281 +51 122% 1 Counters 4 5 -1 80% 5 0 100% 6 +1 120% 6 +1 120% (No.) Self-Serve 0 0 0 N/A (Note 0 0 N/A 0 0 N/A 0 0 N/A 2 (No.) 2) (Note (Note (Note 2) 2) 2) 2 Bag Drop 0 0 0 N/A (Note 0 0 N/A 0 0 N/A 0 0 N/A (No.) 2) (Note (Note (Note 2) 2) 2) Security Area (m²) 49 150 -101 33% 142 -8 95% 151 +1 101% 151 1 101% (Combined) Security 1 1 0 100% 1 0 100% 1 0 100% 1 0 100% Lanes (No.) Passport Area (m²) 0 60 -60 0% 58 -2 97% 53 -7 88% 56 -4 93% Control Passport 0 2 -2 0% 2 0 100% 2 0 100% 2 0 100% (Emigration) Control Desks 3 Smart Gates 0 0 0 N/A (Note 0 0 N/A 0 0 N/A 0 0 N/A (No.) 3) (Note (Note (Note 3) 3) 3) Departure Area (m²) 138 270 -132 51% 264 -6 98% 200 -70 74% 319 +49 118% Lounge Dom+Cafe 437 +437 162% 292 +292 108% 431 +431 160% (Domestic) Dom+Int 4 376 +106 139% 313 +43 116% 384 +175 165% Departure Area (m²) 0 90 -90 0% 112 +22 124% 113 +23 126% 126 +36 140% Lounge (Note 4) (International) Passport Area (m²) 100 100 0 100% 123 +23 123% 86 -14 86% 110 +10 110% Control5 Passport 4 2 +2 200% 3 +1 150% 2 0 100% 2 0 100% (Immigration) Control Desks
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Smart Gates 0 0 0 N/A (Note 0 0 N/A 0 0 N/A 0 0 N/A 3 (No.) 3) (Note (Note (Note 3) 3) 3) Baggage Area (m²) 239 300 -61 80% 255 -45 85% 233 -67 78% 351 +51 117% Claim Carousels 1 1 0 100% 1 0 100% 1 0 100% 1 0 100% (Domestic) (No.) Bag Claim 35.4 39 -3.6 91% 45.8 +6.8 117% 43.5 +4.5 112% 47.7 +8.7 122% Length (m) Baggage Area (m²) 0 180 -180 0% 0 -180 0% 0 -180 0% 0 -180 0% Claim 6 Carousels 0 1 -1 (Note 6) 0 -1 (Note 0 -1 (Note 0 -1 (Note (International) (No.) 6) 6) 6) Bag Claim 0 12 -12 0 -12 0 -12 0 -12 Length (m) Customs Area (m²) 70 70 0 100% 138 +68 197% 152 +82 217% 159 +89 227% Customs 2 1 +1 200% 2 +1 200% 2 +1 200% 3 +2 300% Desks (No.) Arrivals Hall Area (m²) 48 180 -112 30% 30 -150 17% 93 -87 52% 166 -14 92% Services Baggage Area (m²) 64 260 -131 50% 113 -70 73% 136 -49 81% 141 -40 85% Make-Up 7 Security CBS Area (m²) 65 77 75 79 Baggage Area (m²) 35 170 -125 22% 141 -29 83% 124 -46 73% 141 -29 83% Breakdown 7 Concessions Area (m²) 66 55 +11 121% 204 +149 373% 123 +68 225% 186 +131 340% Airline & Area (m²) 46 60 -14 77% 61 +1 102% 75 +15 125% 77 +17 128% Airport Admin Offices Circulation Area (m²) 286 220 +66 130% 385 +165 175% 437 +217 199% 339 +119 154% Toilets Area (m²) 73 110 -37 66% 154 +44 140% 143 +33 130% 132 +22 120% Services & Area (m²) 42 70 -28 N/A 187 +117 N/A 188 +118 N/A 214 +144 N/A Structure Totals All Terminal Area (m²) 1385 2660 -1235 60% 2614 -46 98% 2561 -99 96% 2949 +289 111% Processing & Services Functions Notes: 1. Allows for simultaneous domestic and international check-in operations 2. Assumes Self-serve check-in and bag drop would not be implemented
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3. Assumes Smart Gates would not be implemented for Passport Control 4. Combined size of airside departure lounge includes café space and associated seating area 5. Immigration space and processing facilities based on international passengers only 6. Assumes the same baggage claim belt is used for both domestic and international flights and that arriving domestic and international flights would not occur at the same time. 7. Due to short duration of flights, the lower than optimal capacity in Baggage Makeup and Breakdown is acceptable. Planned circulation for both Baggage Makeup and Breakdown result in an orderly flow and additional circulation is not necessary
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5.2 Passenger Terminal Apron
Next to the Passenger Terminal, the Passenger Terminal Apron is a centre of activity on the airport. As demand grows for access to the Island, so will the need to park aircraft. RPT aircraft will be on the ground for as little time as possible but itinerant and GA aircraft will remain parked for longer. As discussed earlier in the Master Plan document, the current Passenger Terminal Apron can accommodate two Code C aircraft as used by Air New Zealand. With only a single flight operating at any one time, the rest of the apron can be used to accommodate up to two Code B aircraft or one Code C aircraft. If properly marked on the apron, this gives the airport the ability to accommodate a maximum of three aircraft at any one time which is more than the current RPT schedule. However, the airport does currently receive itinerant aircraft and has, at times, reached capacity an had to accommodate two itinerant aircraft and one scheduled RPT aircraft on the apron at the same time. During the site visit by the Consultants in November, there was a period where there were three aircraft parked on the apron, comprised of 1 RPT flight, a Royal New Zealand Air Force aircraft and a training aircraft from New Caledonia. Clearly, the airport apron is at capacity and has no room to accommodate additional aircraft without moving some itinerant aircraft onto the grassed area behind the apron. Use of the grassed area is possible, but is only possible for small GA type aircraft to be parked on the grass, as larger twin engine, turbo prop and business jet aircraft require to be parked on a hard apron surface due to their higher tyre pressures. All hard stands on the apron are currently self-manoeuvring and therefore operationally simple to manage as they do not require the use of tow bars and tugs.
The air traffic forecasts identify an increase in services on days that currently do not have RPT flights rather than increases in numbers of operations in the peak period. As such, the demand for aircraft apron parking does not change throughout the Master Plan period. However, as the current apron is at capacity already, there is a need for additional aircraft parking to address situations where aircraft are unable to depart, are delayed or additional General Aviation or itinerant aircraft arrivals occur. To accommodate additional aircraft parking, three options for development of the apron were generated.
5.2.1 Apron Option A1 - Minimal Expansion
The minimal expansion option increases the total number of stands to 4 aircraft parking stands. This option increases the available parking by 1 parking position, but only where the additional aircraft is a Code B sized aircraft. The two current Code C stands remain unchanged as Code C stands can these can be operated independently. The two new stands would be constructed to the West of the existing stands, and these can be used either as a single independent Code C stand, or as two independently
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operated Code B stands. Option A1 therefore, provides either three Code C stands or two Code C stands and two Code B stands. The minimal expansion option provides for limited expansion of passenger services as well as the ability to accommodate the current demand for itinerant aircraft operations. Option A1 is illustrated in Exhibit 5-14.
5.2.2 Apron Option A2 – Medium Expansion
Expanding the current apron as much as possible would enable the airport to accommodate up to 5 aircraft on self-manoeuvring parking stands. The 5 stands comprise 2 Code C stands and 3 Code B stands. This option is an expansion of Option A1 and, therefore, two of the Code B stands could be operated as a single Code C stand for larger aircraft giving a total of 3 Code C stands and 1 Code B stand. Although Option A2, as shown in Exhibit 5- 15, has been identified as a separate option, it represents the maximum that can be accommodated in the present area and therefore represents an ultimate development of the available space, where aircraft self-manoeuvre on the apron.
5.2.3 Apron Option A3 – Push Back
Options A1 and A2 allow aircraft to enter and depart the parking stands under their own power. The advantage to this arrangement is that the airport does not then need to have GSE to assist the aircraft, either into or out of a parking stand. The drawback to self-manoeuvring operations is that the stand and the manoeuvring area needs to be considerably larger, as obstacle clearances need to be provided between the aircraft wings and obstacles, or to other parked aircraft, as they complete the turn manoeuvre under their own power, while exiting the stand. Option A3 has been developed to examine the use of GSE to push the aircraft back off their parking stands, and therefore minimise the amount of pavement needed for aircraft parking. Option A3, as shown in Exhibit 5-16, can accommodate up to 4 Code C and 3 Code B aircraft. Power-In / Push-Back (PIPB) stands are common at large airports as they represent a more efficient use of apron space and, as large airports often use airbridges to enplane and deplane passengers, PIPB stands are common. They are rarely found at small and regional airports. As noted, PIPB stands require the use of a tug and tow bar to be available at the airport. Use of PIPB often takes slightly longer than operating from a self-manoeuvring stand and adds an additional level of complexity and a safety hazard. As such, most regional airports will attempt to accommodate self-manoeuvring operations where possible.
5.3 Air Freight
The remoteness of the island, and the limitations on sea freight, means that air freight forms an important part of operations at Norfolk Island Airport. Currently, Air New Zealand carries some freight in the belly of their A320 RPT operations to Norfolk Island, and Toll operates a single B737 Freighter 56
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once a week to Norfolk Island. The freight processing is currently conducted in the small freight building located immediately adjacent to the Passenger Terminal on its Northeast side. Expansion of the Passenger Terminal or development of a new Passenger Terminal will necessitate moving the freight facility and, therefore, there is an opportunity to locate the freight facilities in a location where the freight aircraft service can also be accommodated separately from passenger operations. Four freight handling options have been identified for consideration in the Master Plan, and these are discussed in this section.
5.3.1 Freight Option F1 – Minimal Expansion
The current freight handling operator has identified a plan for constructing a new freight facility to the east of the current PTB in an area that is currently grassed. This facility would include the freight handling operations as well as Burnt Pine Travel offices. The proposed freight facility would be a double story building with a total floor area of 1023m2 and a building height of 7.23m. Under this option the location of the facility would be removed from the eastern side of the terminal to permit expansion of the terminal building. However, its location restricts the ability of the apron to expand to accommodate additional aircraft parking positions as outlined in Section 4. The location proposed for the freight facility under this option also requires the current passenger apron be used for the weekly freighter aircraft operation. The location of Option F1 has been shown in Exhibit 5-17.
5.3.2 Freight Option F2 – Medium Expansion
The medium expansion option identifies a new site for freight operations. A reliance on air freight carried on passenger aircraft as belly cargo would suggest that the freight centre should be located close to the passenger terminal and/or passenger apron. Although an accumulation of the small freight volumes carried on individual passenger aircraft, combine to represent a fairly large volume over the course of a year, there are also dedicated freighter aircraft operations serving Norfolk Island Airport. These operations allow for inbound products and produce for the island but also carry off the island refuse and recycling materials that cannot be disposed of or recycled on the island. The use of a freighter aircraft as currently operated by Toll, would shift the best location for the freight centre to be near to where a freighter aircraft might be parked. Currently, the freighter aircraft uses a passenger aircraft parking stand. With additional freighter operations, longer turn-around times that freighter aircraft usually require, and the type of operation involved in servicing a freighter aircraft, means that a dedicated aircraft parking stand should be provided and this should be separated from the passenger apron operations. This would keep the freight operations separate and reduce potential FOD hazard when loading and unloading air freight, especially as the outbound freighter carries waste materials off the Island. An investigation of possible new sites for a freight facility has been carried out, with one of the proposed new sites for a freight facility located to the south of the passenger terminal, on the east side of the taxiway. The 57
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site is currently occupied by the airport maintenance facilities. Most of these maintenance structures are old and in need of repair and/or replacement. This option, therefore, provides an opportunity to place the freight facilities in a location that would be beneficial, while facilities that need to be relocated and are currently in poor shape and in need of replacement, can be demolished and replaced elsewhere. The new freight facility and its associated aircraft parking stand would be capable of accommodating a single Code C freighter, such as the B737 operated by Toll. A self- manoeuvring stand would enable aircraft such as the B737 currently serving Norfolk Island to operate into and out of the stand under its own power. However, as the aircraft exits the stand, the building and hard stand in front of the building would be subject to jet blast from the departing aircraft. The freight operator will therefore need to ensure all freight is cleared from the hard stand during a freight aircraft departure, or install suitable jet blast mitigation to ensure the safety of their staff and ensure that equipment and freight deliveries are not damaged by the jet blast from a departing aircraft. Development of a new freight building would serve to process all air freight, but development of the aircraft parking stand could be deferred as a future development project. All freight processing would be conducted at the new freight facility with road delivery and collection access off Ferny Lane, as illustrated in Exhibit 5-18.
5.3.3 Freight Option F3 - Western Expansion
Development of some of the land to the south of the MET Station for a freight centre would enable the freight facility to accommodate the current Code C freighter, as well as to be able to expand in the future, to accommodate an additional Code C freighter. The larger freight facility would be able to accommodate a single self-manoeuvring Code C freighter or 2 aircraft in a power in / push-back configuration. As the land slopes away towards the north-west, this option would need additional fill material to ensure the facility can be developed on level ground. Exhibit 5-19 shows Option F3 in a fully built configuration with 2 PIPB stands.
5.4 Commercial Leasable Reserve
The airport currently has 2 commercial lease areas in the form of a privately constructed hangar and a Council owned hangar leased to a private individual. With the relatively remote location of Norfolk Island and the small population of the island, flying activity by small General Aviation aircraft is limited. However, future tourism activity may provide opportunities for aviation business activity at the airport that will require commercial space. For example, if the tourism offering of the island is pushed to encourage higher end tourism, this would increase demand for visitation by light twin engine or corporate jet aircraft that can readily cross from Brisbane, Sydney or Auckland. These aircraft could generate opportunities for some FBO services at the airport such as aircraft cleaning and hangarage. Higher value tourism could also generate demand for services such as helicopter sightseeing tours. To accommodate business opportunities, the Airport 58
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needs to have identified where such business could and should be located if this sort of commercial opportunity were to come about. Failure to consider the potential for these opportunities now, could result in future management choosing locations to accommodate future commercial demand that block other development activities. For the Master Plan, therefore, a Commercial Development Reserve has been identified on the West side of the taxiway near the MET facility. Exhibit 5-20 shows the location of the Commercial Development Reserve. For illustrative purposes, the Exhibit identifies 4 lease lots with aprons in front of the hangars, however, the number, size and shape of hangars and aprons would be determined when commercial opportunities arise in the future.
5.5 Airport Maintenance Buildings
With the development of a new air freight facility, some of the airport maintenance stores, sheds and workshops will need to be relocated. As many of these facilities are in poor repair, they will need replacement in the near future in any case. To permit the full build of the new Air Freight facility, a new location for the Airport Maintenance facilities has been proposed on the West side of the taxiway. This location is close to the MET facility and the Council Electrical sheds, and behind the Commercial Development Reserve as shown in Exhibit 5-21.
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6.0 THE MASTER PLAN
A Master Plan represents an orderly plan for development for the airport site and its facilities over the defined horizon. In this case, as is typical for airports, the time period used for the planning horizon is 20 years. The full Master Plan development therefore identifies development that is expected to be required over the 20 year period to 2040. Passenger and freight traffic development may not, of course, develop exactly as forecast, while regulations may change, or geopolitics may result in changes to use of the airport facilities that can change how the airport should develop. Consequently, the Airport Master Plan will need to be updated periodically to ensure that lands are reserved on the airport site to ensure that the airport can develop in ways that suit the changes experienced. Passenger traffic to Norfolk Island is predominantly served from 3 origins: Sydney, Brisbane and Auckland. The Sydney and Brisbane sectors represent the majority of passenger arrivals and current peak period demand on these sectors is represented by the passenger loads carried to and from the Island by Air New Zealand using A320 aircraft. These services are underwritten by the Australian Commonwealth Government to ensure that a suitable connectivity is maintained for islanders and to support tourist visitor traffic which supports much of the local economy. The air traffic forecasts prepared for the Master Plan identified that growth in air passenger traffic is most likely to occur through additional air services being offered on days that are not currently served from Sydney and Brisbane, rather than by competing services provided by other carriers on the same days and times as currently operated. For future facility demands, this expectation means that while overall annual passenger traffic is forecast to increase, the number of passengers passing through the terminal building in the peak period of the day will not increase appreciably (even if the aircraft type used changes to the A321 instead of the present A320), and therefore the passenger processing facilities need only be planned to accommodate at an acceptable level of service the passenger demand levels represented by the existing aircraft operations or, at best, the possible ultimate use of the 185-passenger A321 aircraft on the mainland routes.
Where development has been identified in Section 5 of this document, the Council have reviewed the options available and identified which approach to development they prefer to follow to accommodate future operations or to safeguard for potential future changes or opportunities. The primary facility issues addressed earlier in the document, and for which development options were proposed, were:
• Passenger Terminal, • Passenger Apron, and • Freight Terminal.
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The selected options have been included in the Master Plan, which is presented in this section with the full Master Plan layout scheme depicted in Exhibit 6-1.
6.1 Passenger Terminal
The Airport Passenger Terminal option selected by the Council is to proceed with Terminal Option T3 and construct a new Passenger Terminal. The new Terminal would be constructed on the site of the existing terminal and therefore the present terminal would need to be demolished and the new terminal constructed. During the construction period, accommodation for temporary passenger processing would be needed. The new Passenger Terminal would provide a fresh purpose-built building that would accommodate the current passenger demands and would be able to accommodate the passenger complement of a slightly larger aircraft (the 185-seat Airbus A321) should the carriers choose to start flying this aircraft. Providing a passenger terminal to accommodate the A321 matches the recent pavement rehabilitation work done to provide pavement strength to accommodate this aircraft.
6.2 Passenger Apron
The current passenger terminal apron only has capacity to accommodate the current aircraft demand. However, its capacity is reached on occasions and therefore the apron is not able to accommodate any increase in aircraft parking. Additional aircraft parking space is needed to ensure that the apron does not become a constraint to the aircraft flight schedule. The Regional Council has accepted the need to expand the apron as proposed in the Master Plan Apron Option A1. This increases the size of the passenger terminal apron to allow for the current 2 Code C sized aircraft stands, along with an additional Code C aircraft stand, or sufficient parking space for 2 Code B aircraft to park on the apron simultaneously.
6.3 Freight Facilities
With any development of the terminal, the present freight facility will need to be relocated. The current freight building is too small for purpose, and would block either expansion of the terminal, or development of a new terminal building as preferred by Council. The Council has therefore selected Freight Option F2 which proposes location of a new Air Freight centre to the South of the Fuel Storage facilities. Freight Option F2 provides for a new Freight processing building, along with a reserve for an aircraft parking stand for a freighter aircraft. Future development of the stand would enable all air freight aircraft operations to be separated from passenger operations. NIRC or the developer of the freight facility will need to work with the appropriate Border
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Force agencies to arrive at a suitable internal layout and operational procedures to ensure all First Point of Entry requirements are met.
6.4 Phasing
Norfolk Island is in a unique situation of having a series of drivers for facility development that are not related to increases in peak hour traffic demands. Consequently, phasing of development on the airport that relates to forecast traffic growth and associated timelines is not particularly relevant to the Norfolk Island Airport situation. The facility developments proposed in the Master Plan are therefore triggered by opportunities that arise or by the need to expand or replace existing facilities. To accommodate this approach, the facility development proposed in the Airport Master Plan has been put forward as four ‘phases’, of which the first three phases are proposed to occur within the 20-year Master Planning period, while the 4th phase is reserved for longer-term, post-master plan, development needs that may be triggered by opportunities rather than traffic.
Phase 1: This phase represents the immediate developments that are needed and expected in the short term, such as within the first 5 years as shown in Exhibit 6-2. The initial development of the Passenger Terminal, which falls in the first phase of development, also triggers the need to relocate the freight processing facility to its new location. Phase 1 developments are therefore as follows: • Construction of a new Passenger Terminal • Construction of a new Air Freight Building
Phase 2: The second phase of development is expected to occur between 5 and 10 years, starting in approximately 2025. This phase would involve relocation of the Airport Maintenance function to a new Airport Maintenance Facility, located on the West side of the taxiway as identified in Exhibit 6-3.
Phase 3: The third phase of the Airport Master Plan shown in Exhibit 6-4, focusses on expansion of the Aircraft Parking Apron. Phase 3 is expected to be developed between 2035 and 2040.
Phase 4: The fourth Phase of development identifies the space planning reserves that could be developed as and when demand or opportunity dictates. It may be that the developments in Phase 4 as illustrated in Exhibit 6-5, represent future developments outside the Master Planning horizon, or where necessary these could be brought forward as opportunities arise. The Phase 4 space reserves are as follows: • Further Aircraft Parking Apron Expansion • Construction of a Freight Aircraft Parking Stand 62
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• Preparation of a Commercial Development Reserve
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7.0 FINANCIAL OVERVIEW
In order to understand the current financial position of Norfolk Island Airport, an assessment of the accounts was undertaken. Under the recently established financial system of the Norfolk Island Regional Council (NIRC), there are two cost centres that relate to Norfolk Island Airport operations. Hence, this assessment uses financial information obtained from the NIRC for the following two cost centres:
• The Airport – covers the Norfolk Island Airport operations from financial year 2016/17 to 2018/19 • The Airport Fire Service- covers the airport fire service-related income and costs for the financial year 2018/19
This financial assessment section discusses the sources of revenues and costs for these Norfolk Island Airport cost centres. The airport’s reliance upon aeronautical or non-aeronautical revenues and scale of the capital works programme has been evaluated. Also, the extent of the airport operating cash flow and profitability, or loss, was examined.
7.1 Revenue
There are two main types of source of income for an airport, aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues. Aeronautical revenues comprise mainly charges for services or facilities directly related to the processing of aircraft and their passengers and cargo. Non-aeronautical revenues have no connection with aviation activities in the airport and are mainly derived from activities relating to the rental income from lease of space within the airport property.
The operating revenues for the airport are generated mainly from the aeronautical charges levied for aeronautical purposes. Total operating revenues for financial year 2018/19 amounted to AUD 3,302,450 of which the principal source of revenue was derived from the passenger fees (as shown in Exhibit 7-1 below), which account for about 88% of the total revenue of the airport. .
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Exhibit 7-1: Composition of Norfolk Island Airport Revenue for FYE 2018/19
7.1.1 Aeronautical Revenue
Norfolk Island Airport’s aeronautical revenues comprises of passenger fees, aircraft landing fees, screening charges, charges for e-tops and non e-tops aircraft operations and aircraft waste disposal services. These are intended to cover the cost of providing airport services to airport users.
Passenger Fees are the most important revenue generator among the aeronautical charges, accounting for almost 88% of the total. The Airport charges a passenger fee to each embarking and disembarking passenger of AUD47.60 per passenger for all Regular Public Transport (RPT) flights. This fee is currently billed and collected by the NIRC directly.
Aircraft Landing Fees are charged at AUD 33.80 per movement for non RPT flights, while a security screening charge of AUD 380 is levied for all RPT flights for passenger and baggage screening services. E-tops operations are charged at AUD 1000 per call for the availability of Airport Rescue and Fire Fighting Services (ARFFS). For Non-e-tops operations, these are charged on a hourly basis with charges ranging from AUD 345 per hour to AUD 865 per hour, with higher fees levied for outside normal core working hours, weekends and public holidays. Other Sundry Income mostly relates to sorting and disposal of aircraft waste, and this is charged at AUD 100 per service rendered.
7.1.2 Non- Aeronautical Revenue
The non-aeronautical revenue for Norfolk Island Airport is derived from rental / lease charges which are levied on premises, or on land leased to tenants, based on the total areas occupied. Different rates apply for different
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purposes, such as use of space in the airport terminal building, aircraft hangarage, private aircraft parking and agriculture.
7.1.3 Other Fees and Charges
It is noted that although there is little or no contribution to the airport income, Norfolk Island Airport maintains a schedule of the following fees and charges:
• A charge of AUD 700 for each non RPT passenger and baggage for security screening services • A fee of AUD 33.80 per aircraft movement for non RPT flights including charter flights, general aviation and military flights • An aircraft parking fee of AUD 64.50 per hour, or part thereof, for aircraft with MTOW in excess of 20,000kgs • A charge of AUD 60 per hour, or part thereof, for runway lighting • A charge of AUD 190 for ASIC Application and processing • A minimum charge of AUD 51.35, or the actual costs incurred, for fuel spill clean up
7.2 Expenses
The major expenses of the Norfolk Island Airport include depreciation, staff related costs, maintenance and rates costs, utilities, sewerage and overheads cost, as well as other expenses. Operating expenses in the financial year 2018/19 amounted to AUD 3,183,436 and the main cost incurred was from is depreciation of assets, which accounted for almost 48% of total costs, as shown in Exhibit 7-2 below. The staff-related costs are the second highest cost item at 29% of total costs, and this is followed by airport maintenance at nearly 15% of total costs. Other costs recorded include utilities, sewerage and overheads cost as well as other expenses.
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Exhibit 7-2: Composition of Norfolk Island Airport’s Expenses for FY 2018/19
29.36% 47.78% Staff Related Cost
Utilities, Sewerage and Overheads Maintenance
Other Expenses 6.89% Depreciation
14.78%
1.19%
7.3 Airport Operations Profitability
In order to understand whether the Norfolk Island Airport is profitable in terms of its operations, an Operating Profitability Analysis has been prepared, which concentrates only on revenues and operating expenses, without taking into account the financial cost. As Norfolk Island Airport has not availed of any loan facilities, the only financial cost excluded in this analysis is the cost of depreciation. The following table details the operating profitability for the airport for:
• Airport Cost Centre for the last 3 years from financial year 2016/17 to 2018/19 • Combined Airport and Airport Fire Service Cost Centres for the most current financial year 2018/19
Exhibit 7-3: Norfolk Island Airport Operating Profitability for the Financial Year (AUD) . Combined Airport and Airport Cost Centre Fire Service Cost Centres
Description FY 2016/17 FY 2017/18 FY 2018/19 FY 2018/19
Aeronautical Revenue 1,806,871 2,628,877 3,040,025 3,257,779 Non-Aeronautical Revenue 50,288 47,379 44,671 44,671 Total Operating Revenue 1,857,099 2,676,256 3,084,697 3,302,450 67
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Staff Related Cost 320,913 483,517 614,300 934,663 Utilities, Sewerage and 42,962 232,081 166,337 219,292 Overheads Maintenance 257,583 501,873 295,674 470,587 Other Expenses 42,519 12,281 24,806 37,961 Total Operating Expenses 663,978 1,229,753 1,101,118 1,662,504
Operating Profit/ (Loss) 1,193,120 1,446,502 1,983,578 1,639,946
Depreciation 1,500,049 1,370,480 1,520,932 1,520,932
Net Profit/ (Loss) (306,929) 76,022 462,646 119,014
From the above analysis, it is apparent that the operating inflows (revenues) are sufficient to cover the airport operating costs, resulting in an operating profit in recent years. These excesses over cost have been kept as part of a cash reserve for future infrastructure improvement at the airport.
It is important to note that the Norfolk Island Airport experienced an increase in its profit in the last 2 years (FY 2017/18-2018/19), corresponding with the increase in the airport’s operating revenue. The growth in receipts for these years is mostly due to an increase in aeronautical revenues mainly contributed by passenger fees. Even though Norfolk Island Airport has experienced a growth in revenues, the airport has also incurred higher operating costs over the years, especially due to an increase in staff-related costs. In summary, Norfolk Island Airport provides a healthy return, and is financially profitable in terms of its operations.
7.4 Capital Expenses
Exhibit 7-4 below shows the details of capital expenses for Norfolk Island Airport from financial year 2016/17 to 2018/19.
Exhibit 7-4: Norfolk Island Airport Capital Expenses for the Financial Year (AUD)
Capital Works FY 2016/17 FY 2017/18 FY 2018/19
Slip Rehab - - 200,000
There is no borrowing / loan debt incurred by Norfolk Island Airport itself, as all capital investment is funded either by Commonwealth grant or from NIRC’s own Council Cash Reserves. Major capital works are being funded by the Commonwealth Government, while other infrastructure improvement works at the airport will be financed from the council’s cash reserves. There has not been much capital works planned at the airport for the past three years, mainly due to the fact that the NIRC was only established in June 68
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2016. However, the current runway overlay project represents a major recent and current capital item undertaken by the NIRC.
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8.0 Projected Financial Performance
The objective of this section is to assess the airport operational viability over the planning period. The model’s main parameters and assumptions are the following:
(i) The financial projections are based on actual financial information provided from NIRC from financial year 2016/17 to 2018/19, as well as budgeted financial information for financial year 2019/20.
(ii) Financial projections are based on the air traffic forecasts (medium growth) developed as part of this project.
(iii) It is assumed that Norfolk Island Airport’s management will be supported by the local NIRC’s staff. No change to that arrangement within the next 20 years, has been assumed.
(iv) All financial projections are shown in year 2019 nominal dollars with adjustment for inflation of 3.04%5 per annum.
(v) Revenues have been projected based on the existing scheme of charges without additions or significant adjustment to the current fee schedule.
(vi) Expenses are based on the expansion of Norfolk Island Airport’s operations and adjusted to take into account the additional costs necessary to operate and maintain the airport development projects.
(vii) For this analysis, capital costs are based on the budgeted and proposed capital expenditure plan for Norfolk Island Airport as described below. A total of AUD 871,174 has been budgeted and approved by NIRC for the projects listed below for FY 2019/20 and FY 2020/21.
Exhibit 8-1: Budgeted and Approved Airport Development Project Costs for Norfolk Island Airport
Capital Expenses Phase Project (AUD)
Budgeted and Approved Year 2019/20 Reseal of Airport Runway 50,000,000 Security Equipment 550,000 Year 2020/21 Plant and Equipment 321,174 Sub-Total 871,174
5 Norfolk Island’s average rate of Retail Price Index from FY 2013/14 to FY 2016/17. Any reliable data prior and after that period is not available for analysis. Based on data obtained from NIRC. 70
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(viii) In addition, under this Airport Master Plan, there will be additional capital investment required for the airport within the next 20 years for some major infrastructure upgrade works. The following table outlines the proposed projects for the Norfolk Island Airport, which is assumed to be fully funded by the Commonwealth and/ or by other local sources. As such, the capital costs of the Master Plan infrastructure has not been included in the cash flow analysis.
Exhibit 8-2: Proposed Airport Development Project Costs for Norfolk Island Airport
Start in Complete in Phase Proposed Project Financial Financial Year Year Construction of a new Passenger Terminal 2020/21 2024/25 1 Construction of a new Air Freight Building 2020/21 2024/25 Relocation of the Airport Maintenance function to a 2 2025/26 2029/30 new Airport Maintenance Facility 3 Expansion of the Aircraft Parking Apron 2035/36 2039/40
Aeronautical revenue projections are mainly derived from the air traffic forecast, using future traffic as the main variable. In addition, the non- aeronautical revenue forecast includes the rental/ lease income based on current agreements in place.
Maintenance expenses include various maintenance and repair related expenses in maintaining the airport facilities. These costs are inherently variable and depend mostly on the size and operations of the airport. Escalation of utilities costs for communication, power, waste management, etc., is also linked to the size of the airport. Therefore, with the developments anticipated at the airport, the operating and maintenance expenses of Norfolk Island Airport should increase in relation to the size of infrastructure at the airport. In addition, expenses forecast will also increase in line with the rate of inflation, which is expected to average about 3.04% per annum over the planning period.
All revenues and expenses in relation to Norfolk Island Airport’s operations have been summarized in a Projected Operating Profit/ Loss Statement shown in Exhibit 8-3 below. Norfolk Island Airport’s financial sustainability has been assessed where net operating profit/ loss is calculated after taking into account all revenue sources and operating costs for the first five years, the tenth year and last year of the projection, assuming all the budgeted and proposed ‘capital projects’ are implemented for the airport.
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Exhibit 8-3: Projected Operating Profit/ Loss Statement (AUD) for Norfolk Island Airport Operation
Description FY 2020/21 FY 2021/22 FY 2022/23 FY 2023/24 FY 2024/25 FY 2029/30 FY 2039/40
Aeronautical Revenue 3,560,046 3,802,614 3,897,910 3,991,825 4,123,707 4,484,061 5,119,227 Non-Aeronautical Revenue 52,298 52,298 52,298 52,298 52,298 81,573 83,245 Total Operating Revenue 3,612,343 3,854,912 3,950,207 4,044,123 4,176,004 4,565,633 5,202,472
Staff Related Cost 910,907 999,214 999,201 1,000,903 1,002,658 1,115,287 1,156,136 Utilities, Sewerage and Overheads 160,766 160,766 160,766 160,766 160,766 195,930 209,444 Maintenance 382,606 386,312 390,131 394,067 398,122 520,286 631,790 Other Expenses 33,654 34,680 35,737 36,826 37,948 44,094 59,532 Total Operating Expenses 1,487,932 1,580,971 1,585,834 1,592,561 1,599,494 1,875,597 2,056,902
Operating Profit/ (Loss) 2,124,411 2,273,940 2,364,373 2,451,561 2,576,511 2,690,036 3,145,570
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It is evident from the results that Norfolk Island Airport would be able to cover its own operating costs for the whole planning period from FY 2020/121 to FY2039/40. As the airport experiences higher growth in traffic due to increased flight operations from both Air New Zealand and Air Chathams, Norfolk Island Airport’s operating profitability also increases.
Airports are capital intensive businesses where the assets are often expensive to acquire or build, but have long asset lives (sometimes in excess of 50 years). It is very common for the high capital costs made today to take many years to be recovered. As Norfolk Island is a small and very remote community, capital works often are priced higher than comparable airports in the mainland, with higher costs for materials and transport. Such is the case with Norfolk Island Airport as the financial performance forecast for the next twenty years shows operating profits, the return gain is not sufficient to cover the cost of capital improvements proposed in this Airport Master Plan. Hence, the airport will still require full support from the Commonwealth to develop its facilities to ensure safe and efficient airport operations so that the Airport can reach its full potential and serve the population and local economy.
It is important to note that Norfolk Island Airport’s current projected operating profit/loss statement does not cover the capital financial cost involved, as depreciation cost is not being included in this projection.
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9.0 COVID-19 Impacts on Master Plan
During the development of the Airport Master Plan, there was a drastic reduction in traffic and travel patterns. This was caused by government restrictions on travel as a result of the Coronavirus 2019 Global Pandemic (COVID 19). Such changes to traffic will have a near-term impact on the use of the airport and the timing of needed development of the airport. This section has been added to the Master Plan Report to give some initial thoughts on the impact of reduced air traffic levels and how they might impact the Airport Master Plan.
The timing and pace of recovery of the travel industry post COVID 19, and how that will develop for Norfolk Island, is not yet known. However, this section has been added to the report to identify a likely outcome and expectation for the recovery and what the impacts would be for access to Norfolk Island and the development of the Airport Master Plan.
9.1 Air Traffic Post COVID-19
After a total collapse of air travel demand as well as supply of air services, it is difficult to assess how both demand and supply will re-emerge as the COVID 19 crisis recedes. On the one hand some passenger resistance to travelling by air can be expected, while on the other hand airlines themselves may be slow to provide passenger capacity or restore air service routes until travel markets can be confirmed. Many forecasters are collaborating and exchanging views on possible future scenarios for the aviation travel industry, and tend to agree on the following common themes:
• Regional and domestic traffic is likely to be restored before international traffic • Short-haul international traffic is likely to be serviced to before medium- and long-haul international traffic • VFR (visiting friends and relatives) traffic demand is likely to return to return before business and leisure travel • Business traffic is likely to be held discouraged by cost cutting measures (working from home) and the unexpected, but undeniable, success of virtual meetings (e.g. Zoom, Teams, Skype etc.) • Leisure travel may potentially be restrained held by a reduction in disposable household income levels and reduction in leave entitlement levels, due to the effect of COVID 19 on jobs and job security • For some time, domestic leisure travel is likely to replace international leisure travel
Clearly, these themes require a case by case analysis and present some opportunities for Norfolk Island and NIRC. Further in-depth analysis should be undertaken and marketing plans developed to capitalise on the situation, so as to better position Norfolk Island for the recovery in the travel industry.
On average, for the past decade, 85% of passengers accommodated at Norfolk Island Airport have been visitors to the island, and it can be assumed
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that in excess of 90% of those passengers travel to Norfolk Island for holiday purposes. This means that in excess of three quarters of airport passengers are inbound leisure travellers. As far as resident traffic is concerned, the regular demand peaks around the holiday periods, suggesting that there is a heavy VFR component to the outbound travel segment.
Considering the airport’s traffic mix, and possible traffic re-emergence patterns, it appears that Norfolk Island Airport should not be too heavily affected by the current COVID 19 crisis when air travel becomes possible and demand returns. However, from a current perspective, this may take up to three years, and possibly reach well into FY2023. Nevertheless, the expectation that international markets will remain closed much longer than domestic travel markets presents a considerable opportunity for Norfolk Island. As a unique combination of a domestic destination and a Pacific island destination, offering breathtaking natural beauty and (some) beaches, Norfolk Island could replace a number of international leisure destinations, and even some established domestic holiday locations.
To assess the potential, the size of the market was assessed from Australian Immigration data on Australian resident outbound international leisure travel during CY2018 and CY2019 :
• From New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and the Australian Capital Territory only, and • To Pacific Island destinations, excluding Hawaii and Fiji
This reasonable restrictive set of Australian East Coast outbound international traffic data amounted to around 132,000 trips in CY2018 and 137,000 trips in CY2019. If, theoretically, just 10% of these travellers could be converted to travel to Norfolk Island instead of the destinations recorded, this would represent around 13,500 incremental visitors, increasing the CY2019 visitation to the island by some 50%.
Similarly, to assess the potential of diverting Australian domestic travellers to Norfolk Island, the Australian National Visitor Survey (NVS) was interrogated, on the following:
• Australian resident domestic leisure travel during CY2018 and CY2019 • From New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and the Australian Capital Territory only • To Tasmania and the Northern Territory (so, consciously excluding quintessentially beach and family holiday destinations)
This reasonable restrictive set of Australian East Coast outbound domestic traffic amounted to around 1,010,000 trips in CY2018 and 1,224,000 trips in CY2019. If, theoretically just 1% of these travellers could be converted to travel to Norfolk Island instead of the recorded destinations, this would represent around 11,200 incremental visitors, increasing CY2019 visitation to the island by some 45%.
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In summary, and even if leisure travel takes a few years to return to pre COVID-19 levels, past volumes of East Coast based leisure travel to what are thought to be competing destinations, as well as the likelihood of longer international travel bans, make this arguably one of the best periods in the recent past to put Norfolk Island on Australia’s leisure destination map.
To help re-energise tourism to Norfolk Island and possibly make inroads by attracting travellers to the island that in the past may have travelled elsewhere, NIRC could possibly address 3 distinct areas:
1. Development of a Marketing Concept with particular emphasis on diverting travellers to the island 2. Engagement with the Federal Department of Infrastructure, Regional Development and Cities to maximise the benefit of Future Underwriting Agreements 3. Development of Route Business Cases and Marketing Presentations for Air New Zealand as well as other target airlines
9.2 Airport Master Plan Infrastructure
The COVID-19 situation has resulted in a dramatic decline in leisure travel worldwide as discussed in this section. However, the view put forward above identifies that Norfolk Island could possibly achieve a faster recovery of the air travel market due to an increased emphasis on domestic leisure travel. As air traffic returns, the target aircraft size and frequency is not expected to change and, therefore, the recovery would take the form of improving the aircraft load factors initially, leading to a subsequent increase in weekly flight frequencies to bring air services up to the forecast levels. This type of growth would not change the forecasted aircraft type, nor the peak hour passenger demand. Therefore, the passenger demand for the Passenger Terminal remains as per the peak hour demand forecast for the development of the Passenger Terminal in Section 5 of this Master Plan. Similarly, the need for the new Air Freight Centre and Aircraft Apron remains as per Section 5. The Airport Master Plan, therefore, does not need to change to reflect the COVID 19 effects or the possible Post-COVID recovery in passenger levels once leisure travel can be restored.
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Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan Appendix A
Appendix A
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Norfolk Island Airport Master Plan Appendix A
Appendix A – Obstacle Limitation Surfaces
CASA MoS 139 sets out the height limitations above the runways, to protect aircraft operations in and around the airport. The obstacle limitation surfaces also provide the Council with assistance to identify and limit the potential for building works which may result in penetrations of the OLS and limit or restrict operations to and around the airport.
The OLS has been provided in Exhibit A-1 and a detailed view of the runways has been provided in Exhibit A-2. An obstacle survey was conducted by JASCO Airport Services. JASCO performed an inspection on the airport between 15 and 18 October 2019 where JASCO catalogued obstacles penetrating the OLS Surfaces. The obstacles identified by JASCO have been included in Exhibit A-2.
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