CONTENTS Ministerial Foreword In the last few years, there has been a significant upturn in rail passenger growth in Northern Ireland. Passenger numbers have almost doubled since 2002. Whilst our railway service is not extensive, its role is increasing as a travel mode of choice in our transportation network. In 2013, I published a consultation paper inviting views on what should be the priorities for future investment in our railways network. This attracted a wide variety of informed responses from which I have developed this Strategy setting out a vision and strategic direction for future railways investment over the next 20 years and beyond. It will be important, in the present period of public expenditure restraint, to use whatever resources are available to sustain and make best use of the current railway system. However, I am convinced that rail travel can offer a safe, comfortable and efficient option, particularly for commuters and inter-city passengers. As and when additional resources become available, we should be ready to develop our rail network where there is the greatest potential for further passenger growth. This Strategy offers such a robust approach. I am particularly keen to extend the option of rail travel to commuters from mid-Ulster and to populations in the south and west within the catchments of Armagh and Dungannon. However, progress will depend on the amount of funding that can be made available from the Executive’s budget and, where possible, from European grant programmes. If delivered, this ambitious Strategy would allow for a significant enhancement of existing rail capacity, preparation for the future electrification of the network and the first major extensions to the railway since the closing of lines following the Benson Report in 1963. Danny Kennedy MLA Minister for Regional Development 1 Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 1. BACKGROUND 5 2. RAILWAY INVESTMENT PRIORITY THEMES 8 3. OVERVIEW OF PRIORITY THEMES 10 • PRIORITY 1: MAINTAINING AND IMPROVING PASSENGER 10 CAPACITY OF THE EXISTING NETWORK • PRIORITY 2: TEN-T NETWORK: REMOVING BOTTLENECKS 14 • PRIORITY 3: ENHANCING THE TEN-T COMPREHENSIVE 17 NETWORK 4. CONCLUSION 21 5. ANNEX A - PASSENGER USAGE ON RAIL NETWORK 22 6. ANNEX B - TRANS EUROPEAN TRANSPORT NETWORK 24 2 RAILWAY INVESTMENT PRIORITISATION STRATEGY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i. During 2013, the Department for Regional Development (“The Department”) carried out a public consultation on how we should take forward and prioritise future investment in the Northern Ireland railway network up to 2035. Following consideration of the consultation responses, this paper sets out: • a strategic direction for future railway investment over the next 20 years; and • high level initiatives to be delivered in support of that strategic direction. ii. An overview of the priority themes and associated key projects is set out in table 1 below.1 iii. In considering future investment, it must be acknowledged that while Northern Ireland Railways (NIR) owns and operates the network, rail does not generate surplus revenue. NIR is therefore dependent upon railways capital grant from the Executive to maintain and improve the track, rolling stock and other assets. For that reason, progress in delivering this strategy will depend upon the amount of funding that can be made available from the Executive’s budget. iv. In the current budget period, the Executive is providing railways capital grant at an average rate of £44 million per annum. If this level of investment in our railways is maintained over the 20 years following 2015, that would equate to a potential expenditure of £880 million at today’s prices. Whilst there are no guarantees in the present period of public expenditure restraint that this rate of investment can be maintained, it is important to note that it is estimated that some £620 million could be required just to maintain the current track network and rolling stock fleet. That would limit the resources that could be made available for enhancement or expansion. 1 When reference is made to specific railway projects within the strategy, this does not indicate a firm commitment to budget support by the Department. Each project will require completion of a satisfactory economic appraisal/business case before funding approval can be given. 3 v. While recognising the constraints on public funding, the initiatives identified in this paper have the potential to transform our rail network. The measures and strategic direction set out in this paper would significantly increase the capacity of our rail network, lay the foundations for its future electrification and facilitate the first significant expansion in that network for over 50 years. TABLE 1 OVERVIEW OF THE PRIORITY THEMES AND ASSOCIATED KEY PROJECTS Priority 1: To maintain and improve passenger capacity of the existing track network, rolling stock and other assets. Projects will include: • Completion of the Coleraine to Londonderry track relay • Track relays between Coleraine and Antrim and at Lurgan station • A rolling programme of track rehabilitation and signalling upgrades • Refurbishment of the Enterprise rolling stock • A programme of refurbishment of the Class 3000 and 4000 trains • Refurbishing stations and halts including Adelaide, Ballymena, Londonderry and Lurgan • Purchase of up to 60 extra carriages • A programme of new park and ride facilities • Development of new halts, particularly where linked to park and ride facilities • Passenger information and ticketing projects Projects will be delivered to allow for eventual electrification of the network in the longer term. Priority 2: To remove bottlenecks to service improvements and to assist development along the TEN-T Core Network Corridor. Projects will include: • Third track from Adelaide to Great Victoria Street to serve the new Transport Hub • Dualling of Dargan viaduct and Donegall Quay halt • Third line from Lagan Junction to Central Station Priority 3: To enhance or extend the TEN-T Comprehensive Network.2 Projects will include: • Enhancement of the Northern Line between Bleach Green and Antrim • Feasibility studies into longer term extensions of the network on following routes: - along the A6 corridor between Antrim and Castledawson roundabout - along M1/A4 or A3/A29 corridors towards Dungannon/Armagh - to serve Belfast International Airport 2 Although listed as Priority 3, the Department will be progressing the case for feasibility studies recognising the importance of new railway links felt by many people 4 1. BACKGROUND 1.1 Future Railway Investment: A Consultation Paper was published on 14th January 2013.3 This put forward a number of options for railways investment and sought the views of the public and various stakeholders on the prioritisation of that and any other strategic direction of investment in future budget rounds over the period 2015 – 2035. The consultation closed on 12th April 2013. 1.2 A summary of responses received was published in July 2013.4 The majority of respondents considered that the most important spending priority should be to maintain existing tracks and services, followed by measures to improve passenger capacity on the existing internal networks and work to move potential bottlenecks, thereby increasing network capacity and accommodating more trains. 1.3 There was a measure of support to enhance the cross –border Enterprise Service but also a view that electrification and development of a high speed intercity service should be deferred. Indeed, whilst there was recognition that electrification of the entire network is a desirable aim, in terms of operating efficiency and environmental benefits, most respondents regarded it as a longer term ambition due to the significant costs involved. 1.4 Beyond that, the consultation yielded a variety of suggestions for line extensions and new stations or halts. However, there was no widespread consensus of support for a prioritisation of these over the preferred options outlined above in 1.2. 1.5 Since the consultation there have key developments in relation to passenger growth and decisions on the TEN-T Network5. These are set out below. 3 “Future Railway Investment: a consultation paper” Department for Regional Development January 2013. http://www.drdni.gov.uk/publications‐details.htm?docid=8604 4 “Future Railway Investment: a summary of consultation responses” Department for Regional Development, July 2013. http://www.drdni.gov.uk/index/sustainable_transport_branch/future‐railway‐investment‐consultation.htm 5 Trans European Network (Transport) TEN‐T (Annex B) 5 1.6 The “Future Railway Investment” consultation included projections of passenger growth to the Northern Ireland network to reach 14.5 million per annum by 2035 from a baseline of 11.4 million in 2011/12 (Annex A: Figure 2). It noted that a further network enhancement could push usage above this level, within a tolerance limit of +/- 10%. 1.7 In the last few years there has been a significant upturn in the rate of passenger growth on internal services and, in 2013/14, NIR has carried a record 13.2 million passengers. Annex A provides statistics on the rate of passenger growth and includes a graph of trends in usage of each line on the network between 2001 and 2014. 1.8 Should the upturn in the growth rate since 2011/12 continue beyond 2015/16, instead of easing to the more moderate level forecast in the consultation paper, the long term passenger forecasts for the network will need revision. There will be an opportunity for a review of the forecasts in NIR’s planned “Network Utilisation Strategy”, which will be prepared in support of the Railway Investment Prioritisation Strategy and in line with EU requirements. 1.9 The implications of faster growth would not impact on the broad priorities for investment as set out in the Department’s Strategy. However, it could have a bearing on the timing of projects from the purchase of new rolling stock or tackling bottlenecks to the operation of longer and more frequent trains. 1.10 The Trans European Transport Network (TEN-T) Regulations confirmed the railway line from Belfast to Cork as part of the European core network.