Local Development Plan 2030 Evidence Paper Meeting the Needs of Society January 2017 This page is intentionally blank Page 2 January 2017 Meeting the Needs of Society Evidence Paper Table of Contents Executive Summary ..................................................................................... 5 1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 9 Council Policy Context ......................................................................... 11 Regional Policy Context ....................................................................... 11 2 Population ................................................................................................... 12 Population Profile .................................................................................. 12 Households and Household Composition ......................................... 18 Section 75 Groups ................................................................................. 22 Deprivation, Economic Activity and Qualifications ......................... 34 Population Projections .......................................................................... 38 3 Housing ........................................................................................................ 49 Existing Housing Stock Characteristics ................................................ 55 Recent Build Rates ................................................................................ 60 Housing Land Supply ............................................................................. 62 4 Community Facilities .................................................................................. 70 Education and Childcare Provision .................................................... 72 Health and Social Care ........................................................................ 78 Other Essential Public Services ............................................................ 82 5 Open Space, Sport and Outdoor Recreation ....................................... 85 Public Open Space Provision .............................................................. 91 Sports Facilities ....................................................................................... 92 Children’s play space ........................................................................... 94 6 Public Utilities ............................................................................................. 105 Electricity Network Extent and Characteristics ............................... 109 Gas Network Extent and Characteristics ......................................... 112 Telecommunications Network Extent and Characteristics ........... 114 Water Network Extent and Characteristics ..................................... 118 7 Transport .................................................................................................... 122 Regional Policy Context ..................................................................... 122 Existing Transportation Network ......................................................... 129 Future Transport Proposals .................................................................. 141 January 2017 Page 3 Evidence Paper Meeting the Needs of Society This page is intentionally blank Page 4 January 2017 Meeting the Needs of Society Evidence Paper Executive Summary Population 1. The estimated population of the Borough in mid-2015 was 140,467, which is 7.59% of the total Northern Ireland population of 1,851,621. 2. The Borough’s population increased by 6.1% in the decade from 2005-2015 this is a slower rate than the Northern Ireland average of 7.2%. 3. There were 54,035 households recorded in the Borough in the 2011 Census, which is 7.68% of the total Northern Ireland households numbering 703,275. 4. The Borough’s average household size in 2011 was 2.51 persons. 5. The Borough’s projected average household size in 2030 is 2.41 persons. 6. The projected number of households in the Borough in 2030 is 59,814. 7. The largest increases are projected in households comprising either one adult or two adults with no children. 8. The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) 2014 based population projections suggest that population growth in Antrim and Newtownabbey will be below the Northern Ireland average. The projection suggests the population of the Borough may increase from 140,467 in mid-2015 to 145,401 in mid-2030 amounting to an increase of 3.5% over this period. Housing 9. The NISRA Northern Ireland Housing Stock publication records 58,270 dwellings in the Borough on 1 April 2016. 10. The 2011 Census recorded that 72.22% of households in the Borough were in owner occupied housing compared to the 66.90% Northern Ireland average. 11. There were 7,875 social housing units in the Borough in 2015. 12. The Northern Ireland Housing Executive (NIHE) received 2,628 applications for social housing in the period 2014/15 but made only 584 allocations. 13. NIHE estimate a social housing need in the Borough of 803 new units in the period 2015-20. 14. NIHE research suggests that 37% of homes sold in the Borough in 2014 were considered to be affordable. 15. Recent build rates have fluctuated significantly having been influenced by recent changes in market conditions. The average annual build rate in the period 1998-2008 was 995 dwellings, for the 2012-2015 period the rate had dropped to 233 dwellings. 16. The Department for Infrastructure has defined a 2012-2025 housing growth indicator (HGI) for the Borough of 7,200 dwellings which equates to an annual average build rate of 554 dwellings. January 2017 Page 5 Evidence Paper Meeting the Needs of Society 17. The Borough contained a housing land supply of 570 hectares on 1 April 2015 which could accommodate an estimated 13,903 dwellings. Community Facilities 18. The Borough’s primary schools have an approved enrolment of 16,561 with 4,218 (25%) of these spaces unfilled. 19. The Borough’s secondary schools have an approved enrolment of 8,795 with 1,695 (19%) of these spaces unfilled. 20. The Borough contains further and higher education provision in the Northern Regional College Newtownabbey Campus, the College of Agriculture, Food and Rural Enterprise Greenmount Campus and Ulster University Jordanstown Campus. 21. Almost all nursery school places in the Borough are filled. 22. There are 378 registered childcare providers in the Borough. 23. A wide range of hospital services are provided in the Borough at Antrim Area Hospital, Whiteabbey Hospital, Holywell Hospital and Muckamore Abbey Hospital. 24. There are 17 GP practices located in the Borough with a total of 74 GPs. 25. There are 23 dental practices in the Borough with a total of 71 Dentists. 26. The Borough contains 30 pharmacies. 27. The Council provides a wide range of cultural and community facilities spread across the Borough. 28. There are 8 libraries in the Borough supplemented by 20 mobile library stops. 29. The Borough contains 168 places of worship. 30. There are 54 halls in the Borough providing space for a variety of community uses. 31. The Borough contains 2 police stations, 4 fire stations and 4 ambulance stations. 32. There are 23 post offices and 2 jobs and benefits offices in the Borough. Open Space, Sport and Outdoor Recreation 33. There is extensive open space sport and outdoor recreation provision across the Borough including a number of formal parks in the main urban areas. 34. There are 34 Children’s play areas in the Borough. 35. There are a range of opportunities for recreational walking and cycling in the Borough including the Newtownabbey Way and other shorter waymarked routes. Page 6 January 2017 Meeting the Needs of Society Evidence Paper 36. Other recreational activities available within the Borough include fishing, golf, paintballing and horseriding among others. Public Utilities 37. Electricity is available to consumers in all parts of the Borough. However there are some limitations to the ability of the network to receive additional input from renewable energy producers, particularly in the western part of the Borough around Randalstown and Toome. 38. A natural gas supply is available to a number of communities in the Borough including Metropolitan Newtownabbey, Antrim, Ballyclare, Doagh and Templepatrick. 39. Broadband speeds in the Borough are relatively good with only 9% of premises unable to achieve download speeds of >=10mbps, this compares favourably with other areas of Northern Ireland. There is also comparatively good coverage of mobile telecommunications networks across the Borough. 40. The Borough contains 6 main wastewater treatment works (WWTW), with those in Whitehouse, Antrim, Ballyclare and Roughfort containing some spare capacity, while those in Moneyglass and Cranfield are at capacity. Some wastewater is pumped out of the Borough to WWTW in the Creagh and Greenisland. 41. There are a number of very small WWTW works in some rural areas of the Borough that manage waste water for a few premises. Transport 42. The Borough is well located in relation to Northern Ireland’s strategic transport network. 43. The M2 and A8 from Greencastle to Ballynure are part of the Eastern Seaboard Key Transport Corridor (KTC). The M2/M22 and A6 from Sandyknowes to Toome are part of the North Western KTC and the A26 running north-south through Antrim is part of the Northern KTC. 44. The Borough has rail stations in Antrim and Mossley West on the Belfast to Derry~Londonderry line and in Whiteabbey