July 20, 2020

NEWS FLASH Scientists at Jenner Institute of Oxford University have said in research published in The Lancet medical journal that their experimental coronavirus vaccine has been shown in an early trial to prompt a protective immune response in hundreds of people who were administered a dose.

THE COVID BRIEF Executive Summary

COVID-19 is showing no signs of ebbing in India, and in fact the country continues to report cases by the droves. India has passed one million COVID-19 cases in under six months of reporting its first case. Only the United States and Brazil have reported more cases.

On July 19, India added 40,000 fresh COVID-19 cases. This rate of spread threatens to overwhelm the country’s healthcare system. It would also invite fresh restrictions in the form of lockdowns, which are hampering economic recovery.

A geographic break-up of COVID-19 cases in India suggests as many as 86% of India’s cases are from 10 states, and that Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu alone have 50% of the country’s COVID-19 cases. Ten districts within these states account for 53-54% of India’s case load.

Experts say India needs more labs to test for COVID-19, than the 1,262 as on July 19, and that more labs are needed in tier-II and -III towns. The cost of testing at private labs needs to come down further for it to be accessible to many more people. Additionally, some back penal action to ensure people use face masks and observe physical distancing norms.

According to data from the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India's recovery rate nears 63%, and recovered cases outnumber active cases by three lakh. India's tests per million are close to 10,000. Importantly, India has conducted the second highest number of tests for COVID-19 after the United States. India’s case load remains amongst the world’s lowest, when assessed relative to overall population.

But India must not let its guard down as a study conducted by IIT-Bhubaneswar and the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) has shown that the spread of COVID-19 may pick up pace during peak monsoon and winter as temperatures drop.

In this edition of the COVID Brief, we bring to you an update on the progress of vaccine development by seven Indian pharmaceutical companies.

We share an overview of Interactive Advertising Bureau’s (IAB) assessment of the advertising community’s view of market conditions in the United States. IAB’s report says the ad-frat sees ad spends falling 20% on year in 2020, due to the economic impact of COVID-19. Digital advertising spends are however seen growing 13% on year, in the second half of 2020.

Following this, we bring you a snapshot of findings from a 45-country consumer study by management consultancy McKinsey & Co, that spells out clear consumer trends and gives a peek into consumer behaviour going ahead. India Media Chatter around COVID-19

July 20 July 19 JuneJuly 1814 July 17 July 16

With Highest Single- Covid-19: India’s ICMR to conduct Confirmed COVID-19 UK, US, Canada accuse Day Spike Of 40,425 case fatality rate study on cases in Karnataka Russia of hacking Cases, India's ‘progressively effectiveness of at 51,422 vaccine trials COVID-19 Tally falling’, among BCG vaccine among Crosses 11 Lakh Mark lowest in world elders

July 15 July 14 July 13 July 12 July 11

Record 20,572 India's COVID-19 Confirmed COVID- Delhi puts on hold Confirmed COVID- patients recuperate tally crosses 9-lakh 19 cases in West plan to turn 19 cases in West in 24 hrs, says mark, death toll at Bengal cross stadiums into Covid Bengal cross health ministry 23,727 30,000 care centres; Bihar 30,000 records over 1k new cases for first time

Vaccine Update

“...This vaccine (Covaxin by Bharat Biotech) will definitely be there by (the) end of this year for sure. If the regulators are going to help us, (it) will be there before the end of this year."

“...many of the countries are going in a (for) fast track clearances, so I think...it (the vaccine) will be there by end of this year, in the sense, if it has completed a successful clinical trial, production is not an issue and will be there into the market."

Dr. Krishna Ella Chairman & Managing Director, Bharat Biotech International Limited.

The All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) in Delhi will start phase I/II of human clinical trials of Covaxin from July 20.

Nobody can put final dates... things might go wrong but the reality is that by working with a big pharma company, that vaccine could be fairly widely available around September and that is the sort of target they are working on.

David Carpenter Chairman of Berkshire Research Ethics Committee, which approved trial of Oxford University's coronavirus vaccine. The Race For A Vaccine

India is one of the world's largest manufacturers of generic drugs and vaccines. Many Indian pharmaceutical companies make vaccines for various diseases like polio, meningitis, rotavirus, measles.

As India has emerged as the country with the world's third largest number of COVID-19 cases, here’s a look at the progress made by Indian companies in making a vaccine for the disease.

Covaxin, Bharat Biotech The vaccine has been developed and manufactured in Hyderabad. Bharat Biotech started human trials of Covaxin last week. The company has received approval to conduct phase I and II clinical trials for its vaccine candidate.

AstraZeneca, Serum Institute of India The vaccine candidate is undergoing phase III clinical trials. The institute has said it will start human trials in India in August 2020 and is hoping that the AstraZeneca vaccine will be available by the year-end. ZyCoV-D, Zydus Cadila The pharma major has said it is looking to complete clinical trials of its Covid-19 vaccine candidate ZyCoV-D in seven months. The company had last week started clinical trials with the first human dosing.

Vaccine candidate from Panacea Biotec A yet unnamed vaccine is being developed by Panacea Biotec, which has set up a joint venture firm in Ireland with US-based Refana Inc for the purpose. It will manufacture over 500 million doses of the Covid-19 vaccine candidate. The company says over 40 million doses are expected to be available for delivery early next year.

Indian Immunologicals It is a subsidiary of the National Dairy Development Board (NDDB). Indian Immunologicals has signed an agreement with Australia’s Griffith University to develop a vaccine for coronavirus.

Mynvax The company is working on a vaccine candidate which it hopes to develop in 18 months. It will initially start with two dozen doses. It has petitioned the Biotechnology Industry Research Assistance Council (BIRAC) for an INR 15 crore grant. The vaccine candidate is currently at the pre-clinical trial stage.

Biological E The vaccine candidate being developed by the company is currently at pre-clinical trial level.

Sources: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/7-indian-firms-in-race-to-develop-covid-19-vaccine-who-stands-where/story- KKiXGhuhkPTki5ZtM0YshN.html Market Impact

Last 1 Month

Highlights from the Indian Market l Over the past month, India's S&P BSE Sensex has risen 7.2%, driven mainly by the gradual reopening of the economy, in hopes of a faster rebound led by rural India, and reports of good progress in COVID-19 vaccine trials. l India has added 40,000 new cases of COVID-19 over the past 24 hours. India now has 1.11 million infections. The country has also reported over seven lakh recoveries. According to data from the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, there are 390,459 active cases of COVID-19. l India's COVID-19 case fatality rate is progressively falling and is at 2.49%, as per health ministry data. With this, India has one of the lowest fatality rates in the world. l Aditya Puri, MD and CEO of HDFC Bank, India's largest private sector lender, has said Indian GDP will recover "very fast" and pointed out that it is essential to get the growth rate back to the pre-COVID levels. "The COVID crisis is a health crisis which killed supply and over a period of time demand as well. However, I am confident in the future of India and even brighter future of HDFC Bank. The GDP and the country will recover very fast," Puri said. l Domestic credit rating agency ICRA has revised its forecast for contraction in India’s GDP in the current fiscal to 9.5% from 5% earlier, as continued lockdowns in some states have affected the recovery seen in May and June. l India's debt to GDP could climb to 87.6% this fiscal, up from 72.2% last year, because of a collapsing GDP and consequently higher borrowings, SBI Ecowrap, a research publication of the State Bank of India, has said in a note. In absolute terms, SBI Ecowrap sees India's gross debt rising to around INR 170 lakh crore this fiscal. India’s GDP collapse is seen pushing up its debt to GDP ratio by at least 4%, implying that growth rather than continued fiscal conservatism is the only mantra to get us back on track, the publication said. l India's foreign exchange reserves increased by USD 3.108 billion during the week ended July 10. According to the Reserve Bank of India's weekly statistical supplement, the reserves grew to USD 516.362 billion from USD 513.254 billion reported for the week ended July 3. The value of India's gold reserves increased by USD 712 million to USD 34.729 billion. l According to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the South-west monsoon brought excess rain to all states barring Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Tripura and Mizoram. Monsoon is critical for India as it is responsible for 70% of the country’s rainfall. l The Union Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare has said crop planting in the country has increased by 21% over last year due to heavy monsoon. l Around 88% of sowing has already been completed in India and the easy availability of cheap labour in rural India is likely to help increase cultivation across the country this season. Agriculture experts reckon on-time rain, hike in Minimum Support Price (MSP) and the return of millions of people to villages due to lockdown are the main reasons behind revival of farming across the country. l India’s rural economy is expected to lead the country’s economic recovery. Highlights from Global Markets l On July 19, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a record increase in global coronavirus cases, with the total rising by 237,743 in 24 hours. l More than 14 million people around the world have been diagnosed with COVID-19, while over 7.8 million have recovered and more than 600,000 have died, according to data from the Johns Hopkins University. l On July 17, the United States reported more than 70,000 coronavirus infections for a second consecutive day. The US is nearing 3.9 million cases. l The U.S. economy is forecast to shrink by 6.6% in 2020 due to the shock of the coronavirus pandemic, but a resurgence in coronavirus infections and a systemic increase in poverty could worsen that outlook, the staff of the International Monetary Fund warned on July 17. l The eurozone’s nascent recovery from the economic damage done by the coronavirus pandemic faces several potential threats, Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, has warned, after keeping its monetary policy on hold. l The ECB governing council on July 16 hit pause after four months of ramping up its monetary stimulus, as it entered what analysts called “a wait and see” period to assess the speed of economic recovery before launching new measures.

Sources: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/indias-covid-concerns-country-goes-past-1-mn-mark-heres-what-the-current-situation-is/articleshow/77010579.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/covid-19-spread-may-spike-in-monsoon-winter-with-fall-in-temperatures-iit-aiims-study/articleshow/77050397.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/covaxin-human-clinical-trials-begin-at-aiims-delhi-on-monday-all-you-need-to-know/articleshow/77060257.cms https://indianexpress.com/article/india/live-coronavirus-india-news-latest-updates-today-lockdown-total-corona-cases-deaths-in-india-covid-19-tracker-vaccine-delhi-gujarat- 6512565/ https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1639740 https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/indian-economy-to-recover-very-fast-we-ll-emerge-stronger-aditya-puri-120061800945_1.html https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/indias-gdp-to-contract-9-5-in-fy21-icra/77016389 https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/indias-debt-to-gdp-may-hit-88-in-fy21-fiscal-deficit-goal-likely-only-in-fy30-sbi-ecowrap-6384141.htm https://www.newindianexpress.com/business/2020/jul/17/indias-forex-reserves-rise-by-over-3-billion-2171139.html https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/after-us-india-has-done-most-covid-19-tests-white-house/article32108964.ece https://www.news18.com/news/india/india-sees-boost-in-crop-cultivation-amid-covid-19-crisis-as-country-receives-18-excess-monsoon-rainfall-2720431.html https://www.ft.com/chttps://www.ft.com/content/c671e795-138a-4f45-a40f-012f5bbc4cccontent/c671e795-138a-4f45-a40f-012f5bbc4ccc Brandwatch Insights

Cases & Key milestone Covid 19 mentions Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, 02 Apr 2069 04 May Karnataka and Govt launches Fresh Guidelines Gujarat worst Aarogya Setu app of MHA Come PM Modi meets to self-assess affected states 26 Mar Into Effect coronavirus infection 20 Apr senior ministers, INR 1.7 Lakh Crore Welfare New Guidelines govt. officials to 20 Jul Package Come Into Effect 15 Apr review pandemic 05 May 24 Mar New Guidelines for 11,18,043 PM Announces 24 Mar India Records response Selective Operations 21 Day lockdown 536 Highest Released 28 Apr 29 Mar Single-Day 1024 31324 01 Jun 13 Jun 08 Apr Spike In Cases 18 Apr 5274 25 Apr Unlock 1.0 308,993 11 Jul 15724 26283 93,322 820,916 15 Mar 27 Jun 110 511,926

21 Apr 27 Mar 14 Apr 08 May RBI allows Banks to provide 23 Mar 20080 3-month moratorium 10,363 56351 Govt. Clarifies on loans, EMI repayment; spending of 01 May reduces key repo rates by Govt. Extends CSR funds 75 basis points to Lockdown to MHA Issues 4.4% to revive growth Fresh 11 Mar May 03 Guidelines Union Health Ministry First Covid Death in says 8 states Karnataka contributed 85% virus case load, 87% deaths

Reportage volume sees a slight uptick from July onwards as repercussions of the Coronavirus continuing with it’s momentum of cases continuing to rise in various parts of India.

Amongst our technology markers, we see a marked increase in conversations related to Artificial Intelligence over the last few weeks.

A lot of the news mentions covers the Google for India live webstream which had Sundar Pichai speaking to audiences about Google’s India Digitization Plan to invest $10 Billion into various facets and disciplines. The key focus areas will span across SMBs, consumer tech, education, health and agriculture. Specifically it’s looking at AI for social good in digital literacy, outbreak predictions and support for rural economies.

IIIT Delhi has also developed an AI model for repurposing existing antivirals into identification of possible treatment of Covid 19. This would help shortlisting from 100 plus existing antivirals for which running clinical trials is not feasible. Jaipur railway station has also piloted a contactless thermal imaging system to identify people possibly running a fever. Some Bengaluru startups have been in the news regarding the Covid response innovations which have been approved by the ICMR, including an AI based device that can detect coronavirus through X Rays.

In cybersecurity news, Twitter was hacked to scam users to send money to a bitcoin address in what appeared to be messages from well known twitterati such as Barack Obama, Michael Bloomberg and Elon Musk. Union IT and telecom minister has also stated, a few days back, how India’s Data Sovereignty cannot be allowed to be compromised. Sources: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/education/news/google-announces-partnership-with-cbse-to-train-1-million-teachers-on-digital- tools/articleshow/76938980.cms https://health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/medical-devices/iiit-delhi-develops-ai-model-to-repurpose-existing-drugs-to-treat-covid- 19/76939010 https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/jaipur/contactless-thermal-imaging-system-installed-at-jaipur-station/articleshow/76843542.cms https://tech.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/startups/bengaluru-startups-add-ammo-with-six-products-to-scale-up-pandemic-battle/76845025 https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/the-inside-story-of-the-attack-on-twitter-told-by-the-hackers/articleshow/77044390.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/india-important-digital-power-wont-compromise-on-data-sovereignty- prasad/articleshow/76840586.cms

Advertisers’ View

A survey conducted by Interactive Advertising Bureau among American advertising agencies, brands and marketing firms between May 29 and June 8 says advertising buyers expect 2020 ad spend to decline by 20% from 2019 due to the economic impact of Covid. l Amid the overall decline, digital ad spend is seen growing, with buyers expecting it to be up 13% on year, in the second half of 2020 l TV ad spend is expected to be flat for the third quarter of 2020, down in the fourth quarter, while connected TV/Over The Top investment is expected to increase significantly year over year l Nearly half of advertising buyers are confident their budgets are stable for the rest of 2020, but confidence in 2021 is much lower l 72% of advertising buyers say NewFronts are more important than ever before, but most want Upfronts & Newfronts to merge

Global Consumer Trends

American management consultancy McKinsey & Co has tracked consumer sentiment across 45 countries throughout the COVID-19 crisis. A recent report by the firm made the observation that consumer behaviors are settling into a new normal, as people everywhere learn to live with the reality of COVID-19 and as more countries reopen parts of their economies.

The report goes on to state that although the pandemic’s impact has varied across regions, five themes have become evident among consumers across the globe: l Shift to value and essentials l Flight to digital and omni-channel l Shock to loyalty l Health and “caring” economy l Homebody economy Shift to value and essentials Many consumers are continuing to see their income fall despite their country gradually reopening. They aren't too optimistic about their country's economic outlook.

Notably, consumers in China and India remain more optimistic than their counterparts in Asia, Europe or the United States.

Overall, consumers are being mindful of what they spend on and are trading down to less expensive products. Spends have shifted largely to essentials and household supplies as consumers prepare for a prolonged period of uncertainty.

Flight to digital and omnichannel Most categories of goods have seen an over 10% growth in their online customer base during the pandemic and many consumers say they plan to continue shopping online even when brick-and- mortar stores reopen.

In the UK and the US, which had moderate online conversion rates before the pandemic, e-commerce continues to grow across all product categories. The share of wallet spent online is expected to increase in China, which had a high rate of online shopping even before the pandemic.

Shock to loyalty Consumers were initially forced to try out different brands as supply chains were disrupted. Value, availability, and quality or organic products are the top three reasons for consumers trying a different brand.

Over 60% of global consumers have changed shopping behavior, many of them for convenience and value.

Health and “caring” economy Across countries, consumers have said that when deciding where to shop, they look for retailers with visible safety measures such as enhanced cleaning and physical barriers.

Additionally, they buy more from companies and brands that have healthy and hygienic packaging and demonstrate care and concern for employees.

During these trying times, consumers have a heightened awareness of how businesses interact with stakeholders, local communities, and society more broadly. The actions that businesses take during this pandemic are likely to be remembered long after COVID-19 has been conquered.

Homebody economy In most countries, more than 70% of survey respondents said they don’t yet feel comfortable resuming their “normal” out-of-home activities. For more than three-quarters of consumers who adjust their behaviors due to the health crisis, the easing of government restrictions won’t be enough. Instead, they’ll wait for guidance from medical authorities, reassurance that safety measures are in place, and the development of a COVID-19 vaccine and/or treatments.

Consumers do plan to resume some of their out-of-home activities soon, and shopping is first on the list. Large events and air travel, on the other hand, are last on the list.

Sources: https://www.iab.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/IAB-BuySide_Ad_Spend__3_FINAL.pdf https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/marketing-and-sales/our-insights/a-global-view-of-how-consumer-behavior-is-changing-amid-covid-19 Methodology Social listening across select open platforms, news impressions and social engagements, and search data were used for, with a focus on recently trending content. We crawled the top 21 news publishers* and 25 Twitter handles* for our analysis. The 21 news publishers are some of the mainstream English media that have focused on COVID-19 stories the most through local coverage, worldwide coverage update, special discussions and conversations with experts, and through dissemination of gathered information via social platforms. While there are many others (probably all) who have covered COVID-19 updates continuously and exhaustively, we have chosen the below-mentioned publications for the purpose of this document. For this report, we have selected Twitter handles of experts across different sectors who, because of their credentials, or experience or by way of representing an organisation, are bonafide authorities in their field and have been regularly engaging with the public on updates and advisories.

*List of news publishers

1. Times of India 5. Livemint 9. DNA 13. Amar Ujala 17. Deccan Herald 21. The Newsminute 2. Indian Express 6. India Today 10. The Tribune 14. Scroll 18. Telegraph India 3. Financial Express 7. Economic Times 11. The Pioneer 15. Quint 19. New Indian Express 4. The Hindu 8. Business Standard 12. Dainik Bhaskar 16. ABP News 20. The Hindu Businessline

Sources to follow Follow these handles on Twitter to get live updates on the COVID-19 pandemic from national and global perspectives.

1. PHFI @thePHFI Public Health Foundation of India 14. CDC @CDCgov Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, USA 2. ORF @orfonline 15. NHS @NHSuk National Health Service, UK 3. Brookings @BrookingsInst 16. Abantika Ghosh @abantika77 Journalist with Indian Express 4. Kaiser Family Foundation @KFF 17. Anoo Bhuyan @AnooBhu Journalist with The Wire and Outlook 5. RAND Corporation @RANDCorporation 18. Cynthia H. Craft @cynthiahcraft Director of Engagement for 6. Dr. Ian M Mackay @MackayIM Virologist the Association of Health Care Journalists 7. Global Virus Network @GlobalVirusNews 19. Pia Christensen @AHCJ_Pia Managing editor, Association of 8. Dr. Robert Gallo @DrRobertCGallo Director, Institute of Health Care Journalists Human Virology 20. Tedros Ghebreyesus @DrTedros Director-General, WHO 9. VignuzziLab @VignuzziLab 21. James Chau @jameschau UN Goodwill Ambassador 10. Terry Simpson @terrysimpson Virologist 22. UNICEF @UNICEF 11. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare @MoHFW_INDIA 23. Henrietta H. Fore @unicefchief UNICEF Executive Director 12. Dr Harsh Vardhan @drharshvardhan Union Minister for 24. Mona Juul @UNECOSOC United Nations Economic and Social Health & Family Welfare Council (UNECOSOC) President 13. PIB Fact Check @PIBFactCheck

WhatsApp State COVID-19 Helpline: WhatsApp continues to publish state helplines across various regions

Delhi: +91 88000-07722 Maharashtra: +91 20261-27394 Punjab: +91 73801-73801 Gujarat: +91 74330-00104 Andhra Pradesh: +91 82971-04104 Odisha: +91 93379-29000 Kerala: +91 90722-20183 Madhya Pradesh: +91 78349-80000 Karnataka: +91 87509-71717 Telangana: +91 90006-58658

Disclaimer: This report is an analysis of media stories and conversations around the developing COVID-19 situation. This report is not an advisory and should not be treated as such. All information included in this report has been collected from news and other online sources. While we have made an attempt to put information which are available on different sources, please verify / cross check any information with official sources. We have listed twitter handles of some official sources as part of the report. MSL is not liable for the accuracy of any information. Any person relying on this or taking any decision based on this report shall be doing so on their own volition and MSL shall not be held responsible or liable for the same.