July 20, 2020 NEWS FLASH Scientists at Jenner Institute of Oxford University have said in research published in The Lancet medical journal that their experimental coronavirus vaccine has been shown in an early trial to prompt a protective immune response in hundreds of people who were administered a dose. THE COVID BRIEF Executive Summary COVID-19 is showing no signs of ebbing in India, and in fact the country continues to report cases by the droves. India has passed one million COVID-19 cases in under six months of reporting its first case. Only the United States and Brazil have reported more cases. On July 19, India added 40,000 fresh COVID-19 cases. This rate of spread threatens to overwhelm the country’s healthcare system. It would also invite fresh restrictions in the form of lockdowns, which are hampering economic recovery. A geographic break-up of COVID-19 cases in India suggests as many as 86% of India’s cases are from 10 states, and that Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu alone have 50% of the country’s COVID-19 cases. Ten districts within these states account for 53-54% of India’s case load. Experts say India needs more labs to test for COVID-19, than the 1,262 as on July 19, and that more labs are needed in tier-II and -III towns. The cost of testing at private labs needs to come down further for it to be accessible to many more people. Additionally, some back penal action to ensure people use face masks and observe physical distancing norms. According to data from the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India's recovery rate nears 63%, and recovered cases outnumber active cases by three lakh. India's tests per million are close to 10,000. Importantly, India has conducted the second highest number of tests for COVID-19 after the United States. India’s case load remains amongst the world’s lowest, when assessed relative to overall population. But India must not let its guard down as a study conducted by IIT-Bhubaneswar and the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) has shown that the spread of COVID-19 may pick up pace during peak monsoon and winter as temperatures drop. In this edition of the COVID Brief, we bring to you an update on the progress of vaccine development by seven Indian pharmaceutical companies. We share an overview of Interactive Advertising Bureau’s (IAB) assessment of the advertising community’s view of market conditions in the United States. IAB’s report says the ad-frat sees ad spends falling 20% on year in 2020, due to the economic impact of COVID-19. Digital advertising spends are however seen growing 13% on year, in the second half of 2020. Following this, we bring you a snapshot of findings from a 45-country consumer study by management consultancy McKinsey & Co, that spells out clear consumer trends and gives a peek into consumer behaviour going ahead. India Media Chatter around COVID-19 July 20 July 19 JuneJuly 1814 July 17 July 16 With Highest Single- Covid-19: India’s ICMR to conduct Confirmed COVID-19 UK, US, Canada accuse Day Spike Of 40,425 case fatality rate study on cases in Karnataka Russia of hacking Cases, India's ‘progressively effectiveness of at 51,422 vaccine trials COVID-19 Tally falling’, among BCG vaccine among Crosses 11 Lakh Mark lowest in world elders July 15 July 14 July 13 July 12 July 11 Record 20,572 India's COVID-19 Confirmed COVID- Delhi puts on hold Confirmed COVID- patients recuperate tally crosses 9-lakh 19 cases in West plan to turn 19 cases in West in 24 hrs, says mark, death toll at Bengal cross stadiums into Covid Bengal cross health ministry 23,727 30,000 care centres; Bihar 30,000 records over 1k new cases for first time Vaccine Update “...This vaccine (Covaxin by Bharat Biotech) will definitely be there by (the) end of this year for sure. If the regulators are going to help us, (it) will be there before the end of this year." “...many of the countries are going in a (for) fast track clearances, so I think...it (the vaccine) will be there by end of this year, in the sense, if it has completed a successful clinical trial, production is not an issue and will be there into the market." Dr. Krishna Ella Chairman & Managing Director, Bharat Biotech International Limited. The All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) in Delhi will start phase I/II of human clinical trials of Covaxin from July 20. Nobody can put final dates... things might go wrong but the reality is that by working with a big pharma company, that vaccine could be fairly widely available around September and that is the sort of target they are working on. David Carpenter Chairman of Berkshire Research Ethics Committee, which approved trial of Oxford University's coronavirus vaccine. The Race For A Vaccine India is one of the world's largest manufacturers of generic drugs and vaccines. Many Indian pharmaceutical companies make vaccines for various diseases like polio, meningitis, rotavirus, measles. As India has emerged as the country with the world's third largest number of COVID-19 cases, here’s a look at the progress made by Indian companies in making a vaccine for the disease. Covaxin, Bharat Biotech The vaccine has been developed and manufactured in Hyderabad. Bharat Biotech started human trials of Covaxin last week. The company has received approval to conduct phase I and II clinical trials for its vaccine candidate. AstraZeneca, Serum Institute of India The vaccine candidate is undergoing phase III clinical trials. The institute has said it will start human trials in India in August 2020 and is hoping that the AstraZeneca vaccine will be available by the year-end. ZyCoV-D, Zydus Cadila The pharma major has said it is looking to complete clinical trials of its Covid-19 vaccine candidate ZyCoV-D in seven months. The company had last week started clinical trials with the first human dosing. Vaccine candidate from Panacea Biotec A yet unnamed vaccine is being developed by Panacea Biotec, which has set up a joint venture firm in Ireland with US-based Refana Inc for the purpose. It will manufacture over 500 million doses of the Covid-19 vaccine candidate. The company says over 40 million doses are expected to be available for delivery early next year. Indian Immunologicals It is a subsidiary of the National Dairy Development Board (NDDB). Indian Immunologicals has signed an agreement with Australia’s Griffith University to develop a vaccine for coronavirus. Mynvax The company is working on a vaccine candidate which it hopes to develop in 18 months. It will initially start with two dozen doses. It has petitioned the Biotechnology Industry Research Assistance Council (BIRAC) for an INR 15 crore grant. The vaccine candidate is currently at the pre-clinical trial stage. Biological E The vaccine candidate being developed by the company is currently at pre-clinical trial level. Sources: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/7-indian-firms-in-race-to-develop-covid-19-vaccine-who-stands-where/story- KKiXGhuhkPTki5ZtM0YshN.html Market Impact Last 1 Month Highlights from the Indian Market l Over the past month, India's S&P BSE Sensex has risen 7.2%, driven mainly by the gradual reopening of the economy, in hopes of a faster rebound led by rural India, and reports of good progress in COVID-19 vaccine trials. l India has added 40,000 new cases of COVID-19 over the past 24 hours. India now has 1.11 million infections. The country has also reported over seven lakh recoveries. According to data from the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, there are 390,459 active cases of COVID-19. l India's COVID-19 case fatality rate is progressively falling and is at 2.49%, as per health ministry data. With this, India has one of the lowest fatality rates in the world. l Aditya Puri, MD and CEO of HDFC Bank, India's largest private sector lender, has said Indian GDP will recover "very fast" and pointed out that it is essential to get the growth rate back to the pre-COVID levels. "The COVID crisis is a health crisis which killed supply and over a period of time demand as well. However, I am confident in the future of India and even brighter future of HDFC Bank. The GDP and the country will recover very fast," Puri said. l Domestic credit rating agency ICRA has revised its forecast for contraction in India’s GDP in the current fiscal to 9.5% from 5% earlier, as continued lockdowns in some states have affected the recovery seen in May and June. l India's debt to GDP could climb to 87.6% this fiscal, up from 72.2% last year, because of a collapsing GDP and consequently higher borrowings, SBI Ecowrap, a research publication of the State Bank of India, has said in a note. In absolute terms, SBI Ecowrap sees India's gross debt rising to around INR 170 lakh crore this fiscal. India’s GDP collapse is seen pushing up its debt to GDP ratio by at least 4%, implying that growth rather than continued fiscal conservatism is the only mantra to get us back on track, the publication said. l India's foreign exchange reserves increased by USD 3.108 billion during the week ended July 10. According to the Reserve Bank of India's weekly statistical supplement, the reserves grew to USD 516.362 billion from USD 513.254 billion reported for the week ended July 3.