Martin Gardner's Last Column | Our Neandertal Cousins | Nostradamus | an Unlikely Séance

SI Sep/Oct 2010 v1_SI JF 10 V1 7/22/10 4:24 PM Page 1

MARTIN GARDNER'S LAST COLUMN | OUR NEANDERTAL COUSINS | NOSTRADAMUS | AN UNLIKELY SÉANCE

THE MAG A ZINE FOR SCI ENCE AND REA SON Vol ume 34, No. 5 • September / October 2010

A Tribute & Celebration Ray HYMAN James RANDI Paul KURTZ James ALCOCK Kendrick FRAZIER

Joe NICKELL Robert SHEAFFER

ADDITIONAL TRIBUTES FROM Robert CARROLL TreatingTreating Heart Bryan FARHA Disease & Stroke: John Allen PAULOS A Skeptic’s Evaluation Scott O. LILIENFELD Christopher C. FRENCH

Neil DEGRASSE TYSON Should ChiChiropractorsropractors Jay PASACHOFF TreatTreat Children? Martin BRIDGSTOCK Luis Alfonso GÁMEZ Benjamin RADFORD Timothy BINGA SI Sept/Oct pgs_SI MJ 2010 7/22/10 4:40 PM Page 2

FORMERLY THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL (CSICOP). AT THE CEN TER FOR IN QUIRY /TRANSNATIONAL. A Paul Kurtz, Founder Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Richard Schroeder, Chairman Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow Ronald A. Lindsay, President and CEO Benjamin Radford, Research Fellow Bar ry Karr, Ex ec u tive Di rect or Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow

James E. Al cock, psy chol o gist, York Univ., Tor on to Thom as Gi lov ich, psy chol o gist, Cor nell Univ. Robert L. Park, professor of physics, Univ. of Maryland Mar cia An gell, M.D., former ed i tor-in-chief, New Eng land Jour - Sus an Haack, Coop er Sen ior Schol ar in Arts and Sci en ces, pro- Jay M. Pasachoff, Field Memorial Professor of Astronomy and nal of Med i cine fessor of phi los ophy and professor of Law, Univ. of Mi ami director of the Hopkins Observatory, Williams College Kimball Atwood IV, M.D., physician, author, Newton, MA Harriet Hall, M.D., family physician, investigator, Puyallup, WA John Pau los, math e ma ti cian, Tem ple Univ. Steph en Bar rett, M.D., psy chi a trist, au thor, con sum er ad vo cate, C.E.M. Han sel, psy cholo gist, Univ. of Wales Massimo Pigliucci, professor of philosophy, City Univ. of Al len town, PA David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy, Columbia Univ. New York-Lehman College Willem Betz, M.D., professor of medicine, Univ. of Brussels Doug las R. Hof stad ter, pro fes sor of hu man un der stand ing and Stev en Pink er, cog ni tive sci en tist, Harvard Ir ving Bie derman, psy chol o gist, Univ. of South ern Cal i for nia cog ni tive sci ence, In di ana Univ. Philip Plait, astronomer, lecturer, and writer Sus an Black more, Vis it ing Lec tur er, Univ. of the West of Ger ald Hol ton, Mal linc krodt Pro fes sor of Phys ics and pro fes sor Mas si mo Pol id oro, sci ence writer, au thor, ex ec u tive di rect or, Eng land, Bris tol of his to ry of sci ence, Har vard Univ. CI CAP, It a ly Hen ri Broch, phys i cist, Univ. of Nice, France Ray Hy man, psy cholo gist, Univ. of Or e gon James “The Amazing” Randi, magician, CSICOP founding Jan Har old Brun vand, folk lor ist, pro fes sor emer i tus of Eng - Le on Jar off, sci en ces ed i tor emer i tus, Time member, founder, James Randi Educational Foundation lish, Univ. of Utah Stuart D. Jordan, NASA astrophysicist emeritus, science Mar io Bunge, phi los o pher, McGill Univ. advisor to Center for Inquiry Office of Public Policy, Mil ton Ro sen berg, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Chic a go Robert T. Carroll, emeritus professor of philosophy, Washington, D.C. Wal la ce Sam pson, M.D., clin i cal pro fes sor of med i cine, Stan - Sacramento City College, writer Ser gei Ka pit za, former ed i tor, Rus sian edi tion, Sci en tif ic Amer i can ford Univ., ed i tor, Sci en tif ic Re view of Al ter na tive Med i cine Sean B. Carroll, molecular geneticist, vice president for science Law rence M. Krauss, foundation professor, School of Earth Am ar deo Sar ma*, chairman, GWUP, Ger ma ny education, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Madison, and Space Exploration and Physics Dept., director, Origins Ev ry Schatz man, former pres i dent, French Phys ics As so ci a tion Wisconsin Initiative, Arizona State Univ. Eu ge nie Scott, phys i cal an thro pol o gist, ex ec u tive di rect or, John R. Cole, an thro pol o gist, ed i tor, Na tion al Cen ter for Sci - Harry Kroto, professor of chemistry and biochemistry, Florida Na tion al Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion ence Ed u ca tion State Univ.; Nobel laureate Rob ert Sheaf fer, sci ence writer K.C. Cole, science writer, author, professor, Univ. of Ed win C. Krupp, as tron o mer, di rect or, Grif fith Ob ser va to ry Southern California’s Annenberg School of Journalism. El ie A. Shne our, bi o chem ist, au thor, president and research Paul Kurtz, professor emeritus of philosophy, SUNY at Buffalo Fred er ick Crews, lit er ary and cul tur al crit ic, pro fes sor emer i tus director, Bi os ys tems Re search In sti tute, La Jol la, CA of Eng lish, Univ. of Cal i for nia, Berke ley Law rence Kusche, sci ence writer Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute, Mountain Rich ard Dawk ins, zo ol o gist, Ox ford Univ. Le on Le der man, emer i tus di rect or, Fer mi lab; No bel lau re ate in phys ics View, CA Ge of frey Dean, tech ni cal ed i tor, Perth, Aus tral ia Scott Lil i en feld, psy chol o gist, Emory Univ. Dick Smith, film pro duc er, pub lish er, Ter rey Hills, N.S.W., Aus tral ia Cor nel is de Ja ger, pro fes sor of as tro phys ics, Univ. of Utrecht, Rob ert Stein er, ma gi cian, au thor, El Cer ri to, CA The Neth er lands Lin Zix in, former ed i tor, Sci ence and Tech nol o gy Dai ly (Chi na) Dan i el C. Den nett, Univ. pro fes sor and Aus tin B. Fletch er Pro - Je re Lipps, Mu se um of Pa le on tol o gy, Univ. of Cal i for nia, Berke ley Vic tor J. Sten ger, emer i tus pro fes sor of phys ics and as tron o my, fes sor of Phi los o phy, di rect or of Cen ter for Cog ni tive Stud ies Eliz a beth Loftus, pro fes sor of psy chol o gy, Univ. of CA, Ir vine Univ. of Ha waii; ad junct pro fes sor of phi los o phy, Univ. of CO at Tufts Uni v. Da vid Marks, psy chol o gist, City Univ., Lon don Jill Cor nell Tar ter, as tron o mer, SE TI In sti tute, Moun tain View, CA Ann Druyan, writer and producer, and CEO, Cosmos Studios, Mar io Men dez-Acos ta, jour nal ist and sci ence writer, Mex i co Car ol Tav ris, psy chol o gist and au thor, Los Ange les, CA Ithaca, NY City, Mex i co Da vid Thom as, phys i cist and math e ma ti cian, Per al ta, NM Ken neth Fed er, pro fes sor of an thro pol o gy, Cen tral Con nec ti cut Kenneth R. Miller, professor of biology, Brown Univ. Steph en Toul min, pro fes sor of phi los o phy, Univ. of South ern CA State Univ. Marv in Min sky, pro fes sor of me dia arts and sci en ces, M.I.T. Neil de Gras se Tyson, as tro phys i cist and di rect or, Hay den Barbara Forrest, professor of philosophy, SE Louisiana Univ. Da vid Mor ri son, space sci en tist, NA SA Ames Re search Cen ter Plan e tar i um, New York City An drew Fra knoi, as tron o mer, Foot hill Col lege, Los Al tos Hills,CA Rich ard A. Mul ler, pro fes sor of phys ics, Univ. of Ca lif., Berke ley Ma ri lyn vos Sa vant, Pa rade mag a zine con trib ut ing ed i tor Kend rick Fra zi er*, sci ence writer, ed i tor, SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER Joe Nick ell, sen ior re search fel low, CSI Christopher C. French, professor, department of psychol- Stev en Wein berg, pro fes sor of phys ics and as tron o my, Univ. of Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician, Waalre, The ogy, and head of the Anomalistic Psychology Research Tex as at Aus tin; No bel lau re ate Netherlands Unit, Goldsmiths College, Univ. of London. Lee Nis bet, phi los o pher, Med aille Col lege E.O. Wil son, uni ver si ty pro fes sor emer i tus, Har vard Univ. Yv es Gal i fret, executive secretary, l’Union Rationaliste Steven Novella, M.D., assistant professor of neurology, Rich ard Wis e man, psy chol o gist, Uni ver si ty of Hert ford shire Luigi Garlaschelli, chemist, Università di Pavia (Italy), and Yale Univ. School of Medicine Benjamin Wolozin*, professor, department of pharmacology, research fellow of CICAP, the Italian skeptics’ group Bill Nye, sci ence ed u ca tor and tel e vi sion host, Nye Labs Boston Univ. School of Medicine Maryanne Garry, professor, School of Psychology, Victoria Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand James E. Oberg, sci ence writer Marv in Zel en, stat is ti cian, Har vard Univ. Mur ray Gell-Mann, pro fes sor of phys ics, San ta Fe In sti tute; Irm gard Oe pen, pro fes sor of med i cine (re tired), Mar burg, Ger ma ny * Mem ber, CSI Ex ec u tive Coun cil No bel lau re ate Lor en Pan kratz, psy chol o gist, Or e gon Health Sci en ces Univ. (Af fil i a tions giv en for iden ti fi ca tion on ly.)

The SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER (ISSN 0194-6730) is pub lished bi month ly by the Com mit tee for Skeptical Au thors for for mat, ref er en ce requirements, and submittal re quire ments. It is on our Web site at Inquiry, 3965 Rensch Road, Amherst, NY 14228. Print ed in U.S.A. Pe ri od i cals post age paid at Buf - www.csi cop.org/publications/guide and on page 56 of the March/April 2008 is sue. Or you may send fa lo, NY, and at ad di tion al mail ing of fi ces. Sub scrip tion pri ces: one year (six is sues), $35; two years, a re quest to the ed i tor. $60; three years, $84; sin gle is sue, $4.95. Ca na di an and for eign or ders: Pay ment in U.S. funds drawn Ar ti cles, re ports, re views, and let ters pub lished in the SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER rep re sent the views and on a U.S. bank must ac com pa ny or ders; please add US$10 per year for ship ping. Ca na di an and for - work of in di vid u al au thors. Their pub li ca tion does not nec es sa ri ly con sti tute an en dorse ment by CSI eign cus tom ers are en cour aged to use Vi sa or Mas ter Card. Canada Publications Mail Agreement No. or its mem bers un less so stat ed. 41153509. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: IMEX, P.O. Box 4332, Station Rd., Toronto, Cop y right ©2010 by the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry. All rights re served. The SKEP TI CAL IN - ON M5W 3J4. QUIR ER is avail a ble on 16mm mi cro film, 35mm mi cro film, and 105mm mi cro fiche from Uni ver si ty In quir ies from the me dia and the pub lic about the work of the Com mit tee should be made to Barry Mi cro films In ter na tion al and is in dexed in the Read er’s Guide to Pe ri od i cal Lit er a ture. Karr, Executive Director, CSI, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Tel.: 716-636-1425. Fax: Sub scrip tions and chan ges of ad dress should be ad dressed to: SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER, P.O. Box 703, 716-636-1733. Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Or call toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (out side the U.S. call 716-636-1425). Man u scripts, let ters, books for re view, and ed i to ri al in quir ies should be sent to Kend rick Fra zi er, Old ad dress as well as new are nec es sa ry for change of sub scrib er’s ad dress, with six weeks ad vance no - Ed i tor, SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER, 944 Deer Drive NE, Al bu querque, NM 87122. E-mail: kendrickfrazier tice. SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER sub scrib ers may not speak on be half of CSI or the SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER. @comcast.net. Fax: 505-828-2080. Be fore sub mit ting any man u script, please con sult our Guide for Post mas ter: Send chan ges of ad dress to SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. SI Sept/Oct pgs_SI MJ 2010 7/29/10 10:11 AM Page 3

Skep ti cal In quir erARTICLES September / October 2010 • Vol. 34, No. 5 43 A Skeptic’s View of Prevention and Treatment of Heart Disease Martin Gardner, 1914–2010 and Stroke A Tribute and Celebration REYNOLD SPECTOR 28 Martin Gardner: A Polymath 50 Should Chiropractors to the Nth Power Treat Children? RAY HYMAN SAMUEL HOMOLA 30 Martin Gardner Has Left Us JAMES RANDI COLUMNS 31 Martin Gardner’s Contributions FROM THE EDITOR to the World of Books Martin Gardner and the Skeptical Movement Today ...... 4 PAUL KURTZ NEWS AND COM MENT Study Links Carbon Dioxide to Near-Death Experiences / 32 We Have Lost an Icon Alternative Medicine Guru Nearly Killed by Own Supplements / What’s New? Observations on Science and Fringe Science from JAMES ALCOCK Bob Park ...... 5 32 A World Treasure NOTES OF A FRINGE WATCHER KENDRICK FRAZIER Swedenborg and Dr. Oz MARTIN GARDNER...... 10 34 Martin Gardner’s Presence IN VES TI GA TIVE FILES JOE NICKELL Nostradamus: A New Look at an Old Seer 35 The Humble Demigod JOE NICK ELL...... 12 ROBERT SHEAFFER NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD An Unlikely Séance 36 Additional tributes by: MAS SI MO POLIDORO...... 17 SCIENCE WATCH ROBERT CARROLL JAY M. PASACHOFF Startling Reflections in the Neandertal Genome KENNETH W. KRAUSE...... 19 BRYAN FARHA MARTIN BRIDGSTOCK THINK ING ABOUT SCI ENCE JOHN ALLEN PAULOS LUIS ALFONSO GÁMEZ The Internet Is Really Bad—Or Is It? MAS SI MO PI GLI UC CI...... 22 SCOTT O. LILIENFELD BENJAMIN RADFORD PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS CHRISTOPHER C. FRENCH TIMOTHY BINGA Night Vision Optics Reveal Fleets of UFOs ROBERT SHEAFFER...... 24 NEIL DEGRASSE TYSON THE SKEPTICAL INQUIREE The Truth about the 9/11 Truthers BENJAMIN RADFORD...... 27 SPECIALCOMMENTARY REPORT FORUM Paranormal Beliefs and Schizophrenia 8 Illusionists at Work JONATHAN C. SMITH ...... 54 How to ‘Prove’ That Bogus Treatments LETTERS TO THE EDITOR...... 62 Are Effective EDZARD ERNST THE LAST LAUGH ...... 66

REVIEWS

Scientific Paranormal Investigation: The Greatest Show on Earth: The Evidence for Evolution How to Solve Unexplained Mysteries Richard Dawkins Benjamin Radford JAMES CRISLER...... 59 ROBERT CARROLL ...... 56 On Fact and Fraud: Cautionary Tales from the Evolution: How We and All Living Things Came to Be Front Lines of Science Daniel Loxton David Goodstein HARRIET HALL...... 57 PETER LAMAL...... 60

Faking the Ancient Andes The Nature of Existence Karen O. Bruhns and Nancy L. Keller Roger Nygard, director CAROL HAYMAN...... 58 RICHARD CARRIER...... 61 SI Sept/Oct pgs_SI MJ 2010 7/23/10 12:41 PM Page 4

From the Editor Skep ti cal In quir er™ THE MAG A ZINE FOR SCI ENCE AND REA SON

ED I TOR Kend rick Fra zi er ED I TO RI AL BOARD James E. Al cock Martin Gardner and the Skeptical Movement Today Thom as Cas ten Ray Hy man Joe Nick ell Am ar deo Sar ma artin Gardner’s passing and the latest successful skeptic’s conference are both causes for Benjamin Wolozin Mreflection on where the skeptical movement Gardner helped found stands now. CON SULT ING ED I TORS I begin these comments as I depart The Amazing Meeting 8 (TAM8), the James Randi Sus an J. Black more Ken neth L. Fed er Educational Foundation’s big skeptics conference in Las Vegas. Martin Gardner’s legacy was much Barry Karr in evidence, and indeed Gardner received a moving tribute from Randi at the beginning of a late- E. C. Krupp Scott O. Lil i en feld afternoon panel on the origin of the skeptics movement. Randi, Ray Hyman, and Paul Kurtz— Da vid F. Marks three giants who, with Gardner, were present at the beginning—and I talked about the events that Jay M. Pasachoff Eu ge nie Scott led to the creation of CSICOP (now our Committee for Skeptical Inquiry) in 1976. Ray’s, Randi’s, Rich ard Wis e man and Paul’s reminiscences also lead off this special Martin Gardner Tribute Issue of the SKEPTICAL CON TRIB UT ING ED I TORS INQUIRER, pp. 28–42. Many other colleagues and I also contribute, and we’ve added a small taste Austin Dacey D.J. Grothe of Martin’s writings. Harriet Hall Back when Martin Gardner was writing his Kenneth W. Krause Chris Moon ey groundbreaking Fads and Fallacies in the Name of James E. Oberg Rob ert Sheaf fer Science, he was a lone voice exposing pseudosci- Karen Stollznow entists and their foibles. But in the 1970s he was Da vid E. Thom as joined by Randi, Hyman, and a few others. Soon MAN A GING ED I TOR Paul Kurtz, with his organizational genius, had Ben ja min Rad ford ART DI RECT OR them (and fifty other scholars and investigators) Chri sto pher Fix assembled as our Committee for the Scientific PRO DUC TION Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSI- Paul Loynes ASSISTANT EDITORS COP, now CSI). Paranormal claims were ram- Julia Lavarnway D.J. Grothe D.J. pant, and voices representing scientific thinking Hyman, Kurtz, Randi, and Frazier at TAM8. Gretchen McCormack were much needed. CAR TOON IST From that single centralized group, the modern skeptics movement was born. The movement, Rob Pu dim WEB DEVELOPER has proliferated and is now much more diverse. Groups, publications, Web sites, podcasts, blogs, Jon Childress and innovative programs have spread across the planet. Some of the participants are well aware of PUB LISH ER’S REP RE SENT A TIVE how it all started; others came independently and are just doing their own thing. The Amazing Bar ry Karr Meeting seemed to be the chance for everyone to come together. Thirteen hundred people showed COR PO RATE COUN SEL up and packed a huge ballroom devoted to all the sessions. CSI, for the first time, was a co-spon- Bren ton N. Ver Ploeg sor of the event, along with the Skeptics Society. BUSI NESS MAN A GER Pa tri cia Beau champ Women are now much more a part of the scene, which is a very welcome improvement. At a FIS CAL OF FI CER panel on women and skepticism, six prominent women skeptics (Ginger Campbell, Pamela Gay, Paul Pau lin Harriet Hall, Jennifer Michael Hecht, Carol Tavris, and Rebecca Watson) pondered this topic and VICE PRESIDENT OF PLANNING AND DE VEL OP MENT welcomed the significant proportion of females in the audience. All audiences were younger than Sherry Rook usual, too—another welcome sign. Just as new generations of students need to be educated, new DATA OF FI CER generations of skeptics are learning the ropes, with many already hard at work, much of which is Jacalyn Mohr excellent. Skeptical inquiry is not only important, it is fun, and that aspect draws in even more peo- STAFF Pa tri cia Beau champ ple. All this is refreshing. We need all these talented, diverse people. That’s because the venues for Cheryl Catania uncritical promulgation of unsupported claims have likewise proliferated as endless cable TV chan- Roe Giambrone Leah Gordon nels and constantly multiplying new electronic media. An tho ny San ta Lu cia Marcella Overton Some criticism at the conference was directed at fellow skeptics. Such self-criticism is another John Sul li van healthy sign. Astronomer Phil Plait gave heartfelt warnings for skeptics to be careful of their tone Vance Vi grass if they want to be effective. Philosopher/biologist Massimo Pigliucci spoke out against skeptics who PUB LIC RE LA TIONS allow their ideology to trump objective science and argued that one of skepticism’s roles is to sup- Nathan Bupp IN QUIRY ME DIA PRO DUC TIONS port good science, not undermine it. Thom as Flynn Martin Gardner didn’t go to conferences, but I think he would have liked this one. He would DI RECT OR OF LI BRAR IES have enjoyed seeing a movement he inspired be so alive, vital, robust, and mature—while appeal- Tim o thy S. Binga ing to and drawing in motivated new generations. The SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER is the of fi cial jour nal of the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry, —KENDRICK FRAZIER an in ter na tion al or gan i za tion.

COMMITTEE FOR SKEPTICAL INQUIRY “...promotes science and scientific inquiry, critical thinking, science education, and the use of reason in examining important issues.” SI Sept/Oct pgs_SI MJ 2010 7/22/10 5:00 PM Page 5

NEWS AND COMMENT

Study Links Carbon Dioxide to Near-Death Experiences

According to a new study published in Heart attacks occur when the supply of as euphoria and the feeling of moving the April 8, 2010, issue of the medical blood (and therefore oxygen) is blocked toward a white light) are also symptoms journal Critical Care (“The Effect of Car - from the heart. The heart stops circulat- of oxygen deprivation. In fact, several bon Dioxide on Near-Death Experi ences ing blood, and as a result, the brain is sub stances have been found to cause in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Sur - deprived of oxygen. This in turn can near-death or out-of-body experiences, vivors: A Prospective Observa tional increase carbon dioxide in the blood. including ketamine (a hallucinogen sim- Study”), people who have elevated levels Carbon dioxide is toxic in high concen- ilar to PCP that is used mainly as an of carbon dioxide in their blood report trations, starting at about 1 percent of the anesthetic). having experiences identical to near-death inhaled air (10,000 parts per million). Though many believe that near-death experiences. Pain-killing endorphins are released in experiences provide evidence of life after The study examined fifty-two heart response to the stress of the heart attack, death, the fact that such experiences can attack patients in three large hospitals. Of and they dull the pain and can cause ela- be chemically induced points to a nat- those, eleven reported experiences such as tion or hallucinations. ural—instead of supernatural—cause. moving toward a bright light, feelings of The link between oxygen deprivation —Benjamin Radford peace and joy, and profoundly spiritual in the brain and near-death experience moments. Studies suggest that between has been suggested for many years. Benjamin Radford is managing editor of the one in four and one in ten heart attack British researcher Susan Blackmore, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER and author of the new survivors report having such experiences. author of Dying to Live: Near-Death Ex - book Scientific Paranormal Investi ga tion: The exact cause has remained a mys- peri ences, notes that many characteristics How to Solve Unexplained Mysteries. His tery, but the new study provides a clue. of typical near-death experiences (such Web site is at www.radfordbooks.com.

Alternative Medicine 1994, “The dietary supplement manufacturer is responsible for ensuring that a Guru Nearly Killed by dietary supplement is safe before it is Own Supplements marketed. ... Manufac turers must make sure that product label information is Health guru Gary Null, nutrition au thor truthful and not misleading.” and marketer of dietary supplements, Indeed, there is no requirement that including Gary Null’s Ultimate Power these substances be scientifically tested Meal, filed a lawsuit against a manufac- for safety or efficacy, and many have turer because he claims that he nearly been proven ineffective for the condi- died after taking his own supplements. tions for which they are used. Supple - Null claims that after consuming two doses of his Ultimate Power Meal each ments often contain doses and ingredi- day for a month as directed, he experi- ents wildly different than what is indi- enced severe kidney damage, “excruciat- cated on their labels, as this case demon- ing fatigue along with bodily pain,” and strates. The vitamin and herbal supple- bleeding “within his feet.” Null claims ment industry, a multi-billion-dollar that the manufacturer, Triarco Indus tries, business, has lobbied hard to keep its put 1,000 times the correct dose of Vita - products from being regulated by the ment was linked to over one hundred min D in his product. According to FDA. As a result, the FDA can step in deaths. Null’s attorney, at least a half-dozen other only when something goes wrong, such Ironically, Null and his customers consumers also became sick from the as after people have been injured or would likely not have been poisoned if tain ted supplement. killed by natural herbs. That happened his products were held to the same stan- Alternative medicines, herbal reme- in 2004, when the FDA banned dards and regulations that pharmaceuti- dies, and dietary supplements are not ephedra, an her bal remedy used in tradi- cals are subjected to—and which Null regulated by the Food and Drug Admin - tional Chi nese medicine for thousands and others in the “alt med” industry istration because they are not marketed of years. Mill ions of consumers took the have long rejected. as drugs. According to the Dietary Sup - herb on the belief that it was natural, ple ment Health and Educa tion Act of safe, and effective—until the supple- —Benjamin Radford

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER September / October 2010 5 SI Sept/Oct pgs_SI MJ 2010 7/22/10 4:40 PM Page 6

What’s New? Observations on Science and Fringe Science from Bob Park

Cell Phones: Lawyers May Be mark. JNCI 93 [2001]: 2037). The study was based entirely on existing public records: the Danish Can cer Registry, Planning a Mass Tort Blitz mobile phone charges, death records, subscriptions, etc. The conclusion was unequivocal: there is no correlation between On June 15 the San Francisco Board of Supervisors voted cell phone use and the incidence of brain cancer. 10–1 to require retailers to post the “specific absorption rate” It was nice to have that fact confirmed, but it was not a sur- (SAR) of cell phones. Others will follow. The story began in prise. I was invited to write an editorial on how scientists 1988 when David Reynard gave his wife, Susan, a cell phone. should respond to the cell phone/brain cancer question for the She died of brain cancer four years later; as David explained same issue of JNCI. Cancer agents act by creating mutant on Larry King Live, “she held it against her head and talked strands of DNA. In the case of electromagnetic radiation, there on it all the time” (What’s New, January 29, 1993). With is a sharp threshold for this process at the extreme blue end of such compelling evidence, David Reynard sued the cell the visible spectrum. Albert Einstein explained this with the phone industry. Con fronted with pseudoscience, the first photoelectric effect in 1905, for which he received the Nobel question is: who profits by this? With an estimated five bil- Prize in 1921. Cell phones operate at a frequency about one lion cell phones in use, it’s fertile soil for a “mass tort blitz,” million times lower than the ultraviolet threshold and hence the dream of every tort lawyer. As in the asbestos and tobacco cannot be a cause of cancer. It’s important to recognize that the industries, some companies face so many lawsuits that it frequency, not the intensity, of radiation makes it a cancer becomes cheaper to settle than to defend. (June 18) agent. (June 25) (For more on the cell phone scare, see the September/October 2009 issue of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER.) Cell Phones: The High Cost of Scientific Ignorance COSMOS: An Acronym I Am at Present Unable to Decipher An opportunity to explain one of the simplest and most powerful concepts of science to the public is slipping away. A The WHO study that prompted the board’s decision seemed month ago the World Health Organization (WHO) released to settle nothing. Indeed, even as the non-results were its long-awaited Interphone study of cell phones and brain announced, still another mobile phone study, the COSMOS cancer in thirteen countries. The ten-year, $14 million, case- cohort study of health effects in five European countries, to control study reports that “no increase in risk of glioma or be carried out at Imperial College London over a period of meningioma was observed with the use of mobile phones.” thirty years, was announced. It must be a joke; in thirty years That’s the right answer, so what’s the problem? We already the technology will be completely different. (June 18) knew that cell phones don’t cause cancer. We’ve known it for years. From the media coverage, you would think these guys just discovered it. Let’s go to the next sentence: “There were Fake Bomb Detector: The High suggestions of an increased risk of glioma at higher exposure Cost of Ignorance levels, but biases and error prevented a causal interpretation.” So is there a supernatural interpretation? That one sentence According to a story in The Independent (U.K.) on June 8, undoes everything in the study. Case control requires human the investigation into the sale of fake bomb detectors has recollection; at their best, case-control studies are to science been expanded to a number of firms in the U.K. That golfers as polls are to elections. They may come out the same, but were buying fraudulent golf-ball finders seemed comical you can’t count on it. (June 25) fourteen years ago. The Quadro Tracker was nothing but an “antenna” mounted on a pistol grip with a swivel that was free to rotate 360 degrees. An almost imperceptible deviation Conservation of Energy: Yes, of the swivel from horizontal would cause the antenna to Biology Must Also Obey the Law rotate under the force of gravity to its lowest point. To a credulous observer it might seem to be controlled by some mys- Ten years ago a group in Denmark published a beautiful epi- terious external force. Quadro soon began marketing the demiological study of cell phones and brain cancer in the tracker to law enforcement agencies and the Department of Journal of the National Cancer Institute (JNCI) (Johan sen, C., Defense for $995 each to search for drugs and weapons. Boice, J.D., Jr., McLaugh lin, J.K., Olsen, J.H. Cellu lar Tele - But it failed a simple scientific test. Sandia National Labs phones and Cancer—A Nationwide Cohort Study in Den - took one apart and found it contained no internal parts. The

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FBI shut Quadro down and arrested its officers (What’s New, very-low-frequency electromagnetic radiation, which of January 26, 1996). However, the device soon reappeared in course does nothing at all to the water. However, Nativis is the U.K. as the ADE 651, sold by ATSC for prices as high as convinced that the ordinary water will now behave like med- $48,000. At least 1,500 were sold to the government of Iraq icine. This is lunacy, and not even original lunacy. as bomb detectors at a cost of millions of dollars, as What’s In 1988 Jacques Benveniste, a French biochemist, con- New reported in January (What’s New, January 29, 2010). The vinced himself that water can be made homeopathic by expos- fake bomb detectors have reportedly contributed to hundreds ing it to low-frequency electromagnetic waves. I challenged of bomb deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan, including British him publicly in the May 17, 1999, issue of Time magazine to and American troops. (June 11) (For more on fake bomb an intercontinental test involving an exchange of samples. detectors, see SI News and Comment, May/June 2010.) Ben veniste agreed but said he needed a little time. Weeks grew into months. Months into years. He died five years later with- Magical Thinking: Dowsing Is Not out completing the test. I think I know why. Homeopaths see ordinary water and convince themselves it’s magic water. Illegal in the U.S. or the U.K. Nativis must do the same. (June 4) In spite of the heinous nature of the ATSC crime, it may be difficult to ob tain a conviction. The defense of those charged Acupuncture: Gimpy Mice with selling fake bomb detectors will be that they believe the Bamboozle Nature Magazine devices work. Their defense will point to the hundreds or thousands of people who openly market their services to A team at Rochester University led by neuroscientist Maiken dowse for water or other substances. Some times called water- Nedergaard studied the production of adenosine when pain is witching, dowsing is said to rely on supernatural influence inflicted on the hind paw of a mouse. Adenosine is a neuro- over the muscles of the person holding a willow fork or an modulator that reduces pain. If the mouse is then stuck with ADE 651. Dowsing doesn’t always work, but what does? The an acupuncture needle, the production of adenosine persists prosecution will find itself hip deep in arguments over how for a longer time. I suppose it might last longer still if the an ADE 651 differs from prayer. Magical thinking will be mouse’s tail is pulled. Nedergaard says her study may open the with us until children are taught that observable effects result way to making acupuncture more effective. Even Daniel only from physical causes, and they must be taught at the Cressy, writing in Nature, said the study “makes acupuncture time they are learning their first language. (June 11) seem less alternative,” but I can’t see how. The acupuncture needle was inserted just below the knee in the Zusanli point, Lies: The Animal That Talks which is supposedly for the stomach, not paws. This study does nothing to answer the basic scientific questions: what is Often Tells Lies the evidence for the meridians or the mysterious qi, and how The polygraph can’t tell a lie from the sex act. But four years are acupuncture points determined? Pressed on these points, ago we predicted that functional magnetic resonance imag- acupuncturists fall back on the Yellow Emperor’s Classic of ing (fMRI) might (What’s New, June 23, 2006). The defen- Internal Medicine, but that book is at least 2,000 years old. No dant in a Ten nessee court case sought to use fMRI to demon- matter—they freelance a lot. (June 4) strate his veracity. The judge did not allow it. Good! The only thing worse than a lie detector that doesn’t work is one that Jesus Statue: Gaze on My Works does. It would be the ultimate invasion of privacy. (June 11) Ye Mighty and Despair

Nativis Inc.: Haunted by the Ghost A familiar landmark in southwestern Ohio, the six-story of Jacques Benveniste statue of Jesus from the torso up, was nicknamed Touch down Jesus because the arms were raised like a referee signaling a A start-up in La Jolla, California, expects to transform the touchdown. Con structed of plastic foam over a steel frame, way medicine is delivered. The company says it’s based on it was consumed by fire after being struck by lightning, as if the work of several Nobel physicists including Paul Dirac and to invite comparison. (June 18) Richard Feynman. A video of Feynman giving a talk on —Robert L. Park quantum electrodynamics (QED) is posted on its Web site. Based on QED, Nativis claims pharmaceuticals have electro- Robert L. Park is professor of physics at the University of Mary - magnetic signatures that convey the same effect as the drug land and author of Voo doo Science and Superstition. He is a itself. It’s homeopathy done backwards. Homeopathy starts Committee for Skeptical Inquiry fellow. These items are from his with medicine and dilutes it sequentially until it’s just water. weekly What’s New electronic newsletter (archives at www.bob- Nativis, by contrast, starts with pure water and exposes it to park.org). E-mail: [email protected].

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COMMENTARY

Illusionists at Work How to ‘Prove’ That Bogus Treatments Are Effective

EDZARD ERNST

t is not difficult to set up experi- and well-known drug, say paracetamol ease. Twenty patients are randomized to ments that seemingly “prove” that (known in the U.S. as acetaminophen). be treated with either ap proach. The Ibogus treatments work. Health jour- Take two hundred patients with a results demonstrate that the carefully cho- nalists, in particular, are regularly taken sprained ankle and randomize them to sen endpoint (e.g., a symptom score) re - in by such bogus studies, and the mistake homeopathic arnica (the experimen- veals no differences between the groups. leading results are subsequently reported tal treatment) or paracetamol (the control The conclusion: homeopathy is as effec- in the press, perpetuating the public’s treatment). One or two days later, mea- tive as standard treatment of Crohn’s disbelief in these treatments. sure the swelling of the injured ankle as an ease. The headline this time? “Homeo - I will give several examples from the undeniably objective outcome measure. pathy Scien tifically Proven to Work for realm of “alternative” medicine. They The results will show that the swelling Life-Threatening Diseases.” are, of course, entirely fictitious. Not diminished in both groups and that no The trick here is to underpower the that there is a shortage of real ones, but difference between the two groups study dramatically. Underpowered equiv- these days one has to be careful not to emerged. The conclusion, therefore, is alence trials will tend to (falsely) suggest end up in the hands of libel lawyers (see that both are equally effective; however, equivalence between the two tested “Keep Libel Out of Science,” SI, May/ homeopathy (not having any actual active approaches—a safe bet for illusionists. June 2010). ingredient) caused fewer adverse events. The headline in the papers might read: Bogus Experiment No. 3 Bogus Experiment No. 1 “Homeo pathy Better than Paracetamol.” Another approach is to conduct a “prag- Most clinical trials test whether one The trick here is to select an outcome matic” trial. Such studies are currently treatment is better than another. These measure that is not affected by the very popular because, according to their studies are called “superiority trials.” “accepted and well-known” drug. Para - proponents, they best reflect the “real Other studies are aimed at testing cetamol does not reduce swelling, and few life” situation of clinical practice. In this whether one therapy is as effective as people would claim otherwise. Thus, it trial, chronically ill patients are random- another. They are called “equivalence acts as a placebo. Comparing two differ- ized to receive either standard care (the trials.” My first example is an equiva- ent placebos should always result in control group) or standard care plus lence trial comparing a highly dilute equivalence. Yet the illusion can be quite homeopathy (the experimental group). homeopathic remedy with an accepted convincing. The primary measure of outcome for that study could be patient satisfaction, Edzard Ernst, MD, PhD, is in Bogus Experiment No. 2 well-being, quality of life, or some other the Complementary Medicine My second fictitious study is also an equiv - subjective endpoint. Due to the regular, unit, Peninsula Medical School, alence trial. It compares homeopathic care lengthy, empathetic encounters received Uni versities of Exeter and against conventional medicine for a seri- by the latter group, patients are bound Plymouth, U.K. ous chronic condition, say Crohn’s dis- to feel better and improve. Illusionists

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will then interpret this benefit as being caused by the specific effects of the homeopathic There’s much more remedies. The headline: “Homeopathy Proven to Help Chron ically Ill Patients.” The trick, in this case, is that A (standard care) plus B (homeopathy) is al ways more Skep ti cal In quir er than A alone (A < A + B)—unless, of course, B content available on our Web site! is zero. But an empathetic encounter does, of course, have an impact on many subjective outcome measures. If, in clinical trials, we do Here’s just a sample of what you’ll not control for nonspecific effects, it is always easy to make a treatment look effective, even find at www.csicop.org: in a randomized trial. Test Tube Diplomacy Bogus Experiment No. 4 Austin Dacey questions whether the Obama My last illusionists’ stunt is an animal study. administration’s decision to put science and Such experiments, it is often (falsely) claimed, technology at the forefront of U.S. efforts to are not affected by placebo effects. Ten experi- engage the Muslim world will work. mental rats receive a diet to which either a homeopathic product or a placebo is added. The aim here is not to test for therapeutic effects but to find out whether homeopathy Biggening Minds with Embiggen Books can cause a biological effect in principle. All Kylie Sturgess reports on Embiggen Books conceivable types of bias and confounding are in Queensland, Australia, a bookstore excluded. The study can be designed to be devoted to rationalism and science. completely watertight. The rats receive the treatments and are observed for several weeks. At the end of this period, all rats in the homeopathy group have died, but all of the control animals are alive. The conclusion: homeopathy generates biological effects and is thus different from placebo. The headline: “Animal Experi - ments Prove the Principles of Homeopathy.” The trick is simple: we need only to select the right “remedy” (and “hide” this in the small print of the experiment). For my fictitious experiment, I chose a “mothertincture” of arsenic. This is pure, undiluted, and very toxic arsenic, yet it is strictly speaking a homeopathic preparation. The conclusion? Bogus experiments are not difficult to set up, and it is not difficult to fool uncritical people with their results. But they are still only tricks of illusionists who aim to mis- lead us. It follows that, if we fail to apply our skills of critical assessment or, worse still, we For more online columns, features, and special content, never had such skills, illusionists pretending to visit www.csicop.org/whatsnew. be scientists can be a menace.

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NOTES OF A FRINGE WATCHER MARTIN GARDNER

Swedenborg and Dr. Oz

orn in Cleveland to Turkish immi- William James’s father, and John Chap - Life on Other Worlds, contains—fasten grants and raised a secular man—better known as Johnny Apple - your seatbelt!—detailed accounts of his BMuslim, Dr. Mehmet Cengiz Oz seed—Swedenborg is now almost for- out-of-body travels to the five then- is vice-chair and professor of surgery at gotten except for a small cult following. known planets, the Moon, and five Columbia University. Thanks to his Here is a thumbnail biography. planets outside the solar system. On many appearances on The Oprah Winfrey Emanuel Swedenborg (1688–1772) each of these worlds he was able to chat Show, and now with his own Oprah- was a respected Swedish scientist until with the human inhabitants and the sponsored The Dr. Oz Show, he has sud- middle age, when Jesus appeared to him bodiless spirits of deceased humans who denly become the nation’s most famous in a vision. The Lord persuaded him to serve the inhabitants. He also visited the heart surgeon. Each year he performs abandon science and devote the rest of his heavens and hells of some worlds, where more than three hundred cardiac opera- life to theology. After Swedenborg’s death, he spoke with humans who became tions at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital his followers in England founded The angels and humans evil enough to be - in Man hattan. His speaking fee is Church of the New Jerusalem based on come demons. Some of these trips “lasted $100,000. Author of hundreds of techni- his fifty or so books. Remnants of this a day,” he writes, “others a week, and yet cal papers and a series of YOU books— church still flourish in England and in the others for months.” the most recent is YOU: Having a Baby— United States, where Swedenborgians Swedenborg’s first visit was to Mer - his admirers are now in the millions. number an estimated 6,000. cury. Its spirits were able to invade his It is not widely known that Oz has Swedenborg never doubted that every brain, searching for facts and knowledge been profoundly influenced by Emanuel verse in the Bible was God inspired. His but having no interest in ideas or opin- Swedenborg, a Swedish Protestant funda- deviations from orthodoxy resulted from ions. The most notable spirit he meets is mentalist who, late in life, became a spir- endless trances that today would be called none other than Aristotle. We are told itualist and Sweden’s most famous trance OBEs (out-of-body experiences). Among he was a wise man in contrast to his medium. In the November/December his many books, the most popular by far many “foolish” Earth followers. 2007 issue of Spirituality and Health, a was Heaven and Hell. Sweden borg claim - The human inhabitants of Mercury glossy bimonthly devoted to New Age ed to have visited both regions in his are slimmer than earthlings. Their women topics, Oz coauthored an article titled trances, where he supposedly spoke with have smaller faces. Their clothes are tight “Mehmet Oz Finds His Teacher,” about angels, devils, and spirits of the departed. fitting. In spite of Mercury’s nearness to how his wife Lisa introduced him to the His book contains detailed descriptions the sun, its atmosphere shields the planet theology of Sweden borg. (Lisa, by the of heaven and hell. from the sun’s heat, producing a climate way, is a Reiki Master. Reiki is a Japanese All of Swedenborg’s books were writ- “not too hot or too cold.” form of alternative medicine developed ten in Latin. A series titled Heavenly Se - Swedenborg then visits Jupiter. Its by a Buddhist monk.) crets consists of eight volumes. Al though land is called “fertile.” (Swedenborg had Once greatly admired by thinkers as he never married, Conjugal Love was a no way of knowing that Jupiter has no diverse as Emerson, Goethe, Blake, widely read treatise. Another popular land.) Its inhabitants’ main concern is book, Apocalypse Revealed, is a verse-by- bringing up their children, whom they Martin Gardner submitted this column May 12, verse analysis of the Bible’s Book of dearly love. They are free of all evil 2010, ten days before his death. See tributes in Revelation. impulses, such as stealing and greater this issue. Swedenborg’s most worthless book, crimes. They know nothing of wars but

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are a “gentle and sweet” people who live bined with charity, or good works.) rate species, but people who are regener- in a state of “blessedness” and “inner hap- If you are interested in reading Life ate—literally reborn humans.” This, of piness.” Their clothing is made of “bluish on Other Worlds, a paperback translation course, is contrary to what the Bible says bark or cork.” When they sit down to eat titled Life on Other Planets was pub- about angels and demons. they do not use chairs or benches but lished in 2006 by the Swede n borg Swedenborgism, Oz believes, is close instead sit on piles of fig leaves. Their Foundation in West Chester, Penn - to Buddhism. “Zen Master D.T. Sesuki,” horses resemble ours, only smaller. sylvania, and the Sweden borg Soci ety in Oz writes, “once referred to Swe den borg I was further informed by the spirits London. Copies are readily available on as ‘the Buddha of the North.’” A devout from that world about various matters the Internet. Christian, Sweden borg would have vio- concerning its inhabitants, such as lently disagreed. their way of moving, and their food The number of alternative medicines and houses. When moving, they do that Oz favors is not known. He believes, not walk upright like the inhabitants of this and many other worlds; nor do contrary to most doctors, that acupunc- they go on all fours like animals, but ture really works, that its effect on pain is when they walk they help themselves more than a placebo. Acupuncture should with the flat of their hands, at every always be supplemented, says Oz, by what other pace half rising to their feet. As he calls the Dr. Oz Diet to lose weight. they move, at every third pace they turn their faces to one side and look On an episode of The Oprah Winfrey behind them, making a slight twist, Show Oz supervised an acupuncture treat- quickly accomplished, of the body. ment for a pain in Oprah’s shoulder. This is because they think it impolite Oprah said she could hardly feel the nee- to be seen by others except face to face. dles and that the pain had vanished after I spare the reader Swedenborg’s ac - the treatment. In the April 2010 issue of counts of the inhabitants and spirits on O, Oprah’s magazine, Oz’s daughter Mars and Saturn. Venus is more inter- Daphne authored an article on “The Se - esting because its humans are of two crets of Acupuncture.” kinds: one “gentle” and “humane,” the It is hard to believe, but Oz also rec- other as fierce as wild animals. The two ommends homeopathy! Homeopaths are groups, along with their spirits, live on The book contains a lengthy intro- convinced that the more dilute a drug, opposite sides of Venus. Their heavens duction by Raymond Moody, author of the more potent it is. Accordingly, they and hells are nearby. many books about NDEs (near death dilute their medications until only a few Swedenborg devotes only three pages experiences) of persons whose hearts or no molecules remain. Somehow, in a to the spirits and inhabitants of the momentarily stopped beating and who way totally unknown to science, the di - Moon. The humans are small as dwarfs, had visions of entering heaven, some- lutant “remembers” the missing mole- but when they speak, their voices— times even seeing Jesus. Moody believes cules! Mainstream doctors like to tell of which come from their abdomens— NDEs are genuine out-of-body events the homeopath who forgot to take his roar like thunder. Swedenborg assures us similar to Swedenborg’s trances. He daily pill and died of an overdose. that the moons of other solar-system strives mightily, without success, to find In the November 2009 issue of O, Oz planets are also inhabited by humans something of lasting merit in Sweden - recommended homeopathy for treat ing and their spirits, but he gives no details. borg’s crazy book. migraines. “Acupuncture and ho me - His trip to our moon is followed by vis- Now for Dr. Oz’s fascination with opathy are worth considering,” he wrote, its to five planets in what he calls our Swedenborg’s other, saner writings. “as adjunct therapies once you are sure “starry sky,” far beyond our sun. “When Lisa and I got married,” he the headache is not a sign of a serious I should add that the humans on our writes in Spirituality and Health, “there disorder.” planets all worship Jesus, although he was no ’til death do us part in the cere- Ophthalmologists all agree that eye was incarnated only on Earth. Sweden - mony.” Swedenborg had convinced Oz refraction problems, such as near- and borg devotes a chapter to explaining and Lisa that marriages are intended to far-sightedness and astigmatism, can be why Jesus chose our world as a place to last forever in paradise. relieved only by corrective lenses or eye live as a man and die for our salvation. “After death the veil that separates surgery. Oz thinks otherwise; search In other writings Swedenborg claims the spiritual from the material world is Google for “Dr. Oz, eye exercises.” Also that the Lord’s Second Coming, and the lifted,” Oz goes on, “and we continue in search on Oz and acupuncture, home- judgment of who is to be saved and who our true selves—either as angels or evil opathy, remedies, and cancer. is not, actually took place in our heaven spirits, depending on whether we have Oz is a fine cardiac surgeon. Unlike in 1757. (He was convinced, by the way, internally made a heaven or hell for our- the Wizard of Oz, he is not a humbug, that faith in Jesus is insufficient for selves while living here.” Angels, as de - but one should be wary of his far-out escaping hell. That faith must be com- scribed by Swedenborg, “are not a sepa- medical advice.

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INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL

Nostradamus: A New Look at an Old Seer

ostradamus, history’s most fa - vague, symbolic language meant that mous prophesier, continues to they could be interpreted in different Nfascinate. Claims that he fore- ways in different times, and—by a saw the rise of Napoleon and of Hitler, process known as retrofitting (after-the- among other world events, are being fact matching)—an event could in hind- supplemented by assertions that he sight look as if it had been predicted by divined the terrorist strikes of Sep tember the supposed seer. 11, 2001, and the end-times brouhaha It is sometimes said that Nostra damus over 2012. wrote in “Old French” (Stray 2009, 264), I have taken a fresh look at several of but that term is reserved for the French his more famous quatrains, translating language of the ninth to fourteenth cen- them from sixteenth-century French turies. Nostradamus actually wrote in into rhymed English verses—no easy Middle French, which was used in the fif- task! teenth and sixteenth centuries. (Modern French has been used from the seven- Background teenth century to the present. See Encyclo - Mìchele de Notre-Dame (1503–1566), pedia Britannica 1960, s.v. “French Lan - better known by the Latinized Nostra - guage.”) Nostra damus’s quatrain lines damus, was a French physician and have ten syllables each and a mid-line astrologer who has been variously de - pause, or caesura, for rhetorical effect. The scribed as a scholar, a sorcerer, and a lines rhyme ABAB. The constraints of fraud. He became wealthy and honored, this poetic form caused him to engage in especially at the French court where Nostradamus’s major work was a col- various verbal strategies, such as using Henry II’s queen, Catherine de Medìci lection of quatrains (four-line rhyming compressed language, even abbreviations. (1519–1589), was a patron of astrologers verses) numbering one thousand and Translating Nostradamus is difficult and sorcerers. arranged in groups of a hundred called at best, and one who would translate centuries. The first 353 quatrains were into verse must—like the original versi- Joe Nickell, PhD, is CSI’s senior research fellow. published in 1555 as Les Prophéties de fier—make things fit. I have tried to fol- His many books include Real-Life X-Files, Entities, M. Michel Nostradamus, and they were low Nostradamus’s word choice when and Adventures in Para normal Investigation. followed by other volumes. The verses’ possible, but out of necessity I have

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occasionally used synonyms, altered the preted by some Nostradamians as (Another quatrain [VIII:1] that is syntax, and made other modifications— “wounds” (from Greek klasis).1 (It may also said to refer to Napoleon begins including sometimes settling for near mean “classes” or “knells” or—if the with the three words Pau, Nay, Oloron, rhyme rather than full rhyme. word is really the Latin classis—“fleets.”) which are interpreted [Robb 1961, The sense of the verse is that an old 43–44] as an imperfect anagram [“Nay- The Quatrains leader is slain by a younger one, thus pau-lon-Roy”] of Napoleon Roi [“King”]. Here are ten of Nostradamus’s most sig- unifying their forces. However, Napoleon was not a king, and nificant quatrains first given in the orig- 2. The Coming of Napoleon. A the words are simply the names of three inal Middle French and then recast into rather typical Nostradamus quatrain, proximate French towns [Randi 1982, modern English verse and discussed. number I:60, illustrates how very differ- 207–212].) 1. The Death of King Henry II. ent interpretations can be drawn from a 3. The Rise of Adolph Hitler. One of Nostradamus’s most famous single cryptic verse. Nostradamus (1555) Another quatrain, II:24, is said to refer proph ecies—number I:35—is also “the wrote: to Adolph Hitler most specifically. Nos - verse that made his reputation” (LeVert Vn Empereur naistra pres d’Italie, tradamus (1555) wrote: 1979, 67): Qui a l’Empire sera vendu bien cher, Bestes farouches de faim fluues tranner: Diront auecques quels gens il se ralie Le lyon ieune le vieux surmontera, Plus part du camp encontre Hister Qu’on trouuera moins prince que En champ bellique par singulier duelle, sera, boucher. Dans caige d’or les yeux luy creuera: En caige de fer le grand fera treisner, Deux classes vne, puis mourir, mort Quand Rin enfant Germain obseruera. cruelle. I translate the quatrain provisionally as: My translation: They’ll swim the rivers, fiercely fam- The young lion shall overcome the ished brutes: old, Most of the army shall range the On field of battle by single duel; Ister; He’ll smash his eyes with a casing of In an iron cage will be drawn The gold: Great Two fleets one, then to die, a death When Rhine’s child shall Germany cruel. watch over. Published in 1555, this verse is said to Hister is said to denote “Hitler,” and predict the accidental death of King in the late 1930s Nazi propaganda min- Henry II, the quatrain’s “old lion.” Re - ister Josef Goebbels, whose wife was “an portedly, during a French jousting tourna- avid Nostradamian,” exploited this and ment in 1559, a splinter of a broken lance other quatrains that supposedly prophe- went through the visor of the King’s sied France’s fall after a German invasion golden helmet (Nostradamus’s “cage of (Hogue 2003, 313). gold”) and thence through his eye into his Hister, or rather Ister, is actually an old brain. He subsequently suffered and died name for the lower Danube River. The “a cruel death” (Roberts 1949, 20). I translate the rather plain text of qua- last line of the quatrain is rather confus- Alas, the quatrain was clearly not train I:60 as follows: ing, and translators have given many dif- intended to refer to Henry. Just three A ruler will be born near Italy, ferent renderings. Some later texts re - years after publishing it, in mid-1558, Whose cost to the Empire shall be placed Rin with Rine (“the Rhine”) or Nostradamus penned a letter to the quite dear; rien (“nothing”). And Ger main can mean king, saying that he expected him to live They will say from those whom he “Germany” or another word of the exact a long life and predicting wonderful shall rally same spelling, i.e., “brother” or “cousin.” That he is less a prince than a butcher. things in his future. Moreover, a tourna- And so the verse could read, “When a ment is not a “field of battle”; the verse The phrase “near Italy” covers a lot of child [of the] Rhine shall keep watch over refers to “eyes,” plural; and there is no ground, from Austria and Corsica to his brother” (LeVert 1979, 111), or known precedent for a golden helmet France and Switzerland, and Greece and “When the Ger man child watches the (gold is a soft metal), certainly not in the Yugoslavia. The verse is usually held to Rhine” (Robb 1961, 47), or “When the case of Henry (Randi 1993, 175). So refer to Napoleon (1769–1821), but Ger man child will observe nothing” Nostradamians are simply retrofitting, other candidates include the Holy Roman (Leoni 1982, 169), or other possibilities. attempting to adapt later events to the Emperor Ferdinand II (1578–1637) and How ever, because Hister, Rin, and French seer’s murky statements. The even Adolph Hitler (1889–1945). (See Germain are all capitalized (Nostra damus same is true of the word classes—inter- LeVert 1979, 80; Randi 1982, 34.) 1555), thus consistent with proper

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names, and also because Nostradamus Nostradamus’s verse does specifically Protestants, many of whom were burned [III:58] uses Rin for “Rhine” elsewhere, I mention London and people burned. at the stake. Her atrocities resulted in her translate the words as “Ister,” “Rhine,” The falling of the “old lady” (La dame downfall. The word antique in the third and “Germany.” LeVert (1979, 111) ob - antique) is said to be “the subsequent line usually means “ancient” but can also serves that, to Nostra damus’s contempo- falling of the statue of the Virgin from mean “eccentric” or “senile.” Mary was raries, the “Child of the Rhine” would St. Paul’s steeple” (Roberts 1949, 6), considered de ranged and at her death indicate Charles V (1500–1558). though there appears to have been no was incoherent and apparently insane 4. The Great London Fire. This ob - such statue (Randi 1993, 191). The (LeVert 1979, 123–24; Randi 1993, scure verse—quatrain II:51—has re ceived phrase that translates as “twenty three 191–92). 5. A Mysterious Forecast. Among Nostra damus’s cryptic verses is quatrain III:58, which while historically murky is None of the Nostradamians seems willing to accept in another sense quite illuminating. The the more obvious explanation that Nostradamus seer wrote (Nostradamus 1555): Aupres du Rin des montaignes was a failed seer. Noriques Naistra vn grand de gents trop tard venu, Qui defendra SAVROME & Pannoniques, increasing attention, some believing that the six” (or “sixes”)—three times twenty Qu’on ne saura qu’il sera deuenu. it forecast the Great Fire of London in plus six—could suggest the year ’66. 1666. Nostradamus (1555) wrote: However, line two is missing a syllable I translate the quatrain this way: Le sang du iuste à Londres fera faute and may be corrupt. Printers of the era Close by the Rhine from the Noric Bruslés par fouldres de vint trois les six. sometimes set type as someone read the mountains, La dame antique cherra de place text aloud (Gaskell 1972, 49, 112–13), so A great one’s born of people come haute: what sounded like Bruslés par fouldres de too late. De mesme secte plusieurs seront occis. He’ll defend Saurome and vint trois les six might actually have read, Pannonians; I translate the quatrain thusly: Bruslés par fouldres plus de vint trois saisis It shall not be learned what has been (“Burned by lightnings, more than his fate. Blood of the just in London shall be twenty-three seized”). In any case, Nos - scarce, Nostradamus predicts the birth of a With twenty three seized, by thun- tradamian skeptics propose a reasonable “great one” whose people are late arrivers derbolts burned. explanation of this verse—that it is a con- to a region “near the Rhine from the The senile lady shall fall from high temporaneous reference to Queen Mary place: Noric mountains” (the Noric Alps). This Tudor of England (“Bloody Mary” Of the same sect many more will be leader will defend “Saurome” (as it slain. [1516–1558]) and her persecution of should be spelled, a Slavic area, now Lithuania) and the “Pan nonians” (apparently Hungarians), though his end will be unknown (LeVert 1979; Roberts 1949, 96; Leoni 1982, 611; Hogue 1997, 265–66). Nostra damians are puzzled by the quatrain, although Leoni (1982, 611) suggests an interpretation such that “the prophecy was fulfilled in reverse” and notes that some others have applied the quatrain to Hitler. Less torturously, Roberts (1949, 96) holds that “it obviously refers to an event and character in his time now lost in the maze of history.” None of the Nostradamians seems willing to accept the more obvious explanation that Nostradamus was a failed seer. When he says of the “great one” that “it will not be learned what will become of him,” the prognosticator tacitly admits that he, too, is unable to Woodcut of the Great Fire of London see what the future holds!

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6. Failed Prophecy of Persia. Here as an anagram for Mongolois [Mongols— There, at the foot of Mount Gaussier, is one of Nostradamus’s predictions, in see Leoni 1982, 434–35, 750], the speci- is a celebrated once-supposed “mau- quatrain III:77, that gives a specific date fied events did not occur.) soleum” (actually only a monument) of of occurrence (Nostradamus 1555): 7. The Invention and Flight of the Sextus. (Hence, Nostradamus’s “Sext. Le tiers climat soubz Aries comprins Montgolfier Balloon. In quatrain V:57, mansol” is obviously a reference with Lan mil sept cens vingt & sept en Nostradamus (1557) wrote: another printer’s error: an inverted u Octobre, Istra du mont Gaulfier & Auentine, having become an n.) Nearby are the Le roy de Perse par ceux d’Egypte Qui par le trou aduertira l’armée: deux rocz (“two rocks”) and le trou prins: Entre deux rocz sera prins le butin, (“hole”) through the mountain that Conflict, mort, pte: à la croix grãd De Sext. mansol faillir la renommee. opprobe. Nostrada mus surely refers to (see Leoni I offer the following translation: 1982, 266, 649; Randi 1993, 184). I translate quatrain III:77 as follows: Going from Mount Gaussier and Therefore, the quatrain does not repre- The third climate, under Aries’ list- Aventine, sent a prophecy of balloon flight but is ing, Through the hole one notifies the instead a murky reference to some October, seventeen twenty-seven, army; obscure incident—real or imagined— Those of Egypt capture the Persian Two rocks the booty is taken from the boyhood of Nostra damus, who King. between, Conflict, death, loss: the Cross dis- For Sext. Mausol. to lose celebrity. was born at Saint-Remy (see also Roberts graced even. 1949, 164). Basically, the quatrain states The second line of Nostradamus’s how, once in the region, passage through astrological forecast is usually under- “the hole” was effected to alert an army stood to give the date as “1727 in and a certain butin (plunder) taken October” (Leoni 1982, 213; Robb between two rocks, causing the Sext[us] 1961, 59). However, LeVert (1979, Mausol[eum] to lose its renown. 181), calling attention to the caesura 8–9. The Terrorist Strike on New (the mid-line pause common to qua- York City. Some say the following quatrains), observes that it could be read trains—VI:97 and X:49 (text from 1557 “one thousand seven hundred [pause] and 1568 editions, respectively)—pre- twenty and seven in October,” i.e., dict the attack of September 11, 2001: Octo ber 27, 1700, but this seems over- Cinq & quarante degrés ciel bruslera, reaching.2 Feu approucher de la grand cité Whatever date in the eighteenth cen- neusue,4 tury is chosen, the prophecy is clearly a Instant grand flamme esparse saultera, Quãt on voudra des normãs faire failed one. Some Nostradamians attempt preuue. to interpret the verse’s “those of Egypt” as Turks who conquered Egypt in 1517, Iardin du monde aupres de cité neufue, Dans le chemin de montaignes cauees but as Leoni (1982, 614–15) observes, Sera saisi & plonge dans la Cuue, the Turks “did not, by any stretch of the Beuuant par force eaux soulfre enuen- imagination, capture (or even defeat) the imees. Persian ruler.” Neither was any particular Some Nostradamians (e.g., Ionescu Here are my translations of the two qua- shame brought to Christendom. “And if 1987) have interpreted the quatrain as trains: ‘Egypt’ is taken literally, there has been predicting the invention of the Mont - no war between Egypt and Persia since golfier balloon, the hot-air craft used for At forty-five degrees shall burn the 1555 (or in fact since the 6th century the first successful human flight in 1783. sky, Fire to approach the new grand city BC), though there may well be one in the Stuart Robb (1961, 143) views it as “one thence; future.” Leoni concludes that Nostrada - of the most amazing prophecies of the Instantly great scattered flames will mus’s prophecy is therefore “a well-dated French seer.” Supposedly, the quatrain arise, failure” (Leoni 1982, 615).3 specifically cites Montgaulfier [sic]; the When one shall seek the Normans’ (Neither is this quatrain the only one word trou or “hole” refers to the balloon’s evidence. with a dated prediction that has failed. opening; and so on. Unfor tunately, Garden of the world near the new Quatrain X:72 forecast, for the seventh Gaulfier is an obvious printer’s error, a city, month of the year 1999, the coming common misreading of the Middle- In the pathway of cavernous moun- “from the sky” of a “great King of Terror” French long s (it resembles f ), coupled tains, Seized and plunged into a cauldron from a place called Angoulmois [Nostra - with an early version of the name of a hill shall be, da mus 1555]. Whether the word is inter- near Saint-Remy (Gaulsier), actually Forced to drink water that’s sulfur- preted as the French district Angoumois or spelled Gaussier. poisoned.

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Following the September 11 terrorist All at once vengeance will be seen to Notes strike on New York City, a fake prophecy vex. 1. Since 1568, the original text’s Deux classes attributed to Nostradamus told of an A comet’s pass—bloody hand, vne has been rewritten as Deux plaies une (“Two hunger, thirst. wounds, one”) so that it would better fit King attack on the “City of York.” The real Henry’s death in 1559. Actually, Nostradamus’s Nostradamian prophecies refer only to The word mabus is unidentified, but classes means “fleets” everywhere else in the qua- “the new city” and “the new grand city.” some Nostradamians believe it refers to trains (Leoni 1982, 576). One verse’s “hollow mountains” are inter- Saddam Hussein, noting (incorrectly) 2. Roberts (1949, 102) attempts to convert the preted as skyscrapers, and there is no that mabus spells sadam when held be - date to 2025 using a “special chronology” he divines from Nostradamus. doubt—with references to flames and fore a mirror. (In fact it reads sudam— 3. See Robb (1961, 59–61) for a contrary view. waters poisoned by sulfur—that Nostra - with the s and a backward [see Andrews 4. Here is another s/f mistake: cité neusue damus is forecasting calamity (Hogue and Andrews 2008].) A more likely pos- should be cité neufue as in the other of the pair of 2003, xii–xiv). sibility is that the handwritten word was quatrains (X:49)—in modern French, cité neufve. However, before the terrorist attacks misread by the typesetter’s reader, that it References Nostradamians were offering non-terror- was actually malus, meaning “the evil ist explanations. Roberts (1949, 96) inter- Andrews, Synthia, and Colin Andrews. 2008. The one.” Also, the first word of the last line, preted the first quatrain as saying, “A cat- Complete Idiot’s Guide to 2012: An Ancient cent (“one hundred”), is more likely the Look at a Critical Time. New York: Alpha aclysmic fire shall engulf the greatest and similar-sounding sang (“blood”) (see Books. newest of the world’s big cities.” Of the LeVert 1979, 129). Bleiler, E.F. See LeVert 1979. second, he said (1949, 328): “This star- The Classic French Dictionary. 1944. Chicago: tling prophecy of a catastrophic event at a Nostradamus predicted many calami- Follett Publishing Co. pleasure resort not far from the great new ties—often heralded by a comet, accord- Gaskell, Philip. 1972. A New Introduction to Bibli - ography. New York: Oxford University Press. city, predicts a tremendous tidal wave of ing to a superstition of his time. However, he did not make a doomsday prophecy, Hogue, John. 1997. Nostradamus: The Complete poisoned waters that shall sweep in from Prophe cies. Shaftesbury, England: Element the resort and overwhelm the man-made merely stating in a later preface that his Books. mountain-like skyscrapers of the city.” forecasts “extend from now to the year ———. 2003. Nostradamus: A Life and Myth: The Neither of these scenarios is compatible 3797” (qtd. in Leoni 1982, 127). Never - First Complete Biography of the World’s Famous theless, Twenty-twelvers seem to be “des- and Controversial Prophet. London: Element with a terrorist attack on New York, Books. whether by nuclear means or not (Hogue perately trying to find a way of decoding Ionescu, Vlaicu. 1987. Nostradamus: L’Histoire 2003, xiii). Indeed, Nostradamus would a 2012 prediction from Nostradamus’ Secréte du Monde. Paris: Félin; cited in Randi seem to be speaking of Europe, at least in quatrains” (Stray 2009, 268). 1993, 177. the first verse with its reference to “the Leoni, Edgar. 1982. Nostradamus and His Proph e - * * * * cies. New York: Bell Publishing Co. Normans.” (In any case, New York City is LeVert, Liberté (pseud. of E.F. Bleiler). 1979. The not at forty-five degrees latitude but As these examples show, one cannot Prophecies and Enigmas of Nostradamus. Glen instead well under forty-one.) claim that Nostradamus successfully pre- Rock, NJ: Firebell Books. 10. The ‘2012’ Predictions. Several Nickell, Joe. 1989. The Magic Detectives. Buffalo, dicted the future. In his book The Occult NY: Prometheus Books. of Nostradamus’s quatrains supposedly Conceit, Owen Rachleff (1971, 138) Nostradamus. 1555. Les Propheties de M. Michel anticipate the year 2012, the last year on characterized Nostradamus’s proph e cies Nostradamus. Lyon: Chés Macé Bonhomme. the Mayan calendar (Hogue 1997). as “exquisite examples of ambiguity, aid - ———. 1557. Les Propheties de M. Michel Nostra - Twenty-twelvers believe that something damus. Lyon: Chez Antoine du Rosne. ed by a keen sense of history.” How ever, ———. 1558. Epistle to Henry II, June 27. Text portentous will occur then—if not the James Randi (1993, 223) did see the in Roberts 1949, 231–41. end of the world, perhaps some New future regarding Nostradamus, predict- ———. 1568. Les Propheties de M. Michel Nostra - damus. Lyon: Benoist Rigaud. Awakening of Consciousness and blah, ing many years ago that his legend would blah, blah. Quatrain II:62 has been men- Rachleff, Owen. 1971. The Occult Conceit. survive: Chicago: Cowles. tioned in this regard (Nostradamus 1555; Randi, James. 1982. Nostradamus: The prophet An ever-abundant number of inter- see Andrews and Andrews 2008, 265): for all seasons. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 7(1): preters will pop up to renew the shabby 30–37. Mabus puis tost alors mourra, viendra exterior of his image, and that gloss will ———. 1993. The Mask of Nostradamus: The De gens & bestes vne horrible defaite: serve to entice more unwary fans into Prophe cies of the World’s Most Famous Seer. Puis tout à coup la vengence on verra acceptance of the false predictions that Buffalo, NY: Prometheus Books. Cent, main, soif, faim, quãd courra la have enthralled millions in the centuries Robb, Stewart. 1961. Prophecies on World Events by comete. since his death. Shame less rationaliza- Nostradamus. New York: Ace Books. Here is how I translate quatrain II:62: tions will be made, ugly facts will be Roberts, Henry C. 1949. The Complete Prophecies ignored and common sense will con- of Nostradamus. New York: Nostra damus, Inc. Mabus then afterwards will die; tinue to be submerged in enthusiasm. Stray, Geoff. 2009. Beyond 2012: Catastrophe or comes next Awakening? A Complete Guide to End-of-Time A horrible defeat of men and beasts: Amazing! Every word has come true! Predictions. Rochester, VT: Bear and Com pany.

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NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD MASSIMO POLIDORO

An Unlikely Séance

nce the most common kind of breezes, and smelled scents. Maybe a Teodosio Lavinia, from the town of “spiritual” gathering, and for feeble light flickered or moved around Potenza in southern Italy. He claimed he Osome an alternative form of the room. It soon took the shape of a could evoke spirits to move and shake entertainment, the séance is extremely human form or a face. A ghost! The any three-legged table. “Table tipping” rare today. Mediums are no longer what strange entity moved around the room, had been a standard of séances, but he they used to be. They now contact “enti- speaking to and touching participants. had something new to offer: he claimed ties” in daylight, without going into a The table rocked, the medium levitated he did not need to touch the table for it trance, in front of hundreds of people in the air, or flowers fell from the ceil- to move. It sounded interesting. and on television. Or so they claim. But at the turn of the ninetenth century, a séance could be a truly touching, emotional, and even scary experience. You were invited to someone’s house, It was all very spooky, especially if you did not where a medium tried to contact your know about the medium’s unseen assistants, deceased loved ones. People sat around a table or held hands while the medium dressed in black and creating the phenomena was enclosed in the spirit cabinet. Lights were lowered or extinguished, and then occurring around the room. the wait began. In the dark, people could pray, sing spiritual anthems, or simply breathe in unison and follow the medium’s instructions. ing. Finally, everything turned quiet. ‘This Room Is No Good!’ It might take ten minutes, half an The lights were turned up, and every- RAI, an Italian TV network, somehow hour, or even more time before anything thing looked normal once again. heard about this challenge and asked happened. And the anticipation grew. It was all very spooky, especially if you permission to film the test live. We plan- Then, suddenly, you thought you were did not know about the medium’s unseen ned to conduct the experiment in the on another planet. You started hearing assistants, dressed in black and creating the laboratories of the Department of whispers, strange voices coming from phenomena occurring around the room. Chemistry at the University of Pavia, afar. You heard steps around you, felt When we were approached by an where we had often conducted testing of Italian spirit medium who said he wan- psychic claimants. Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the para- ted CICAP (the Italian skeptics group) On the agreed-upon morning, the normal, lecturer, and co-founder and head of to test his “powers,” we agreed right medium arrived quite early. He wanted CICAP, the Italian skeptics group. His Web site is at away. He called himself “Magus Math - to check the conditions of the test. We www.massimopolidoro.com. eus Faust,” but his real name was Signor had searched for different kinds of three-

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legged tables, at his specific request, and The Table Tilts He then placed his fingers on the surface came up with five of different heights and As we usually do before such tests, we of the table and pushed down. Again, weights. He examined each one of them asked the medium to give us an infor- the table tilted, but he added a new twist carefully, lifting and touching them one mal demonstration. We wanted to be to the trick. When the table was incli- by one. Finally, he chose one that he said sure that his powers could work well in ned on two legs, he removed his hands could work for the test. But something that particular room and that the lights, and left it in this precarious position. was wrong. cameras, and people present would not Then it was apparent how he usually “There is a problem here,” he said in affect his ability. In case of a failure succeeded in this demonstration: he was a thick Southern Italian accent. under test conditions, those elements going to claim that any movement cau- “What problem?” we asked. could not then be blamed as the possible sed by us in the attempt to keep the “The floor is no good!” he said. source of the failure. table still was actually produced by the He meant that it was not sufficiently smooth. The small cracks between the tiles might prevent the table from sli- ding. We suggested placing the table on top of a large wooden platform. After we He then felt confident of his success in the same did so, he waved his hands on the table (Merlin style) a few times, examined the place where he had earlier claimed it could not platform, and then shook his head. “No good!” he repeated. “No good at be done at all. The fact that the TV crew was all!” growing impatient may have had something The wood, he explained, stopped the “spiritic fluid” that apparently came from to do with his decision. underground and needed direct contact with the legs of the table. The table could not move under such conditions. When examining people claiming ps - ychic powers, it is important that test He looked at us suspiciously at first fluid emanating from his hands, which conditions are as favorable for the claim - but then agreed: “OK, I can do this!” he kept dramatically waving in the air. ant as possible—provided, of course, He asked us to sit around the table We decided we would not give him that they do not allow for misinterpreta- and place the tips of our fingers on the the chance to pull this on us in front of tions or trickery. This way, any possible surface of the table. He did the same. the camera. So we immediately put the failure cannot be attributed to unfavora- Suddenly, without even attempting to table back on the floor and asked him to ble conditions or the skepticism of the hide it, he started to push down on his move it from that position; just a few experimenters. side of the table, forcing it to tilt. millimeters would have been enough. Patiently, we searched for another “What are you doing?” we asked. The medium appeared to be shocked place to perform the test. The only appa- “You are pressing on the table!” by this change in the program. He said rently suitable room we could find “Ah! But you know nothing!” he re - he could try and appeared to concen- without cracks between tiles was a cram- plied. “I am not pressing. It is the fluid trate for a while. It took only a few ped space under a staircase. Psychic, table, coming from my fingers that presses minutes before he stopped and said that and crew moved to the new location, but down.” he had had enough. alas, nothing could be done there either. “But you said you did not need to “The spirits are a-gone! They don’t like “Here’s too gloomy,” the medium touch the table in order to move it,” we it in here,” he said to explain his failure. said. “I can’t breathe in here!” reminded him. Before the end of the filming, however, Back again to the original room, “That is very difficult! I can only try we explained to the TV viewers how the where the psychic said he could try to that once, during the official test, not medium had really been able to incline perform the test. now.” We did not argue any longer but the table by pressing on it. “Ok, much better now!” he said, instead put the table back in place and When his turn came to explain his quite relieved. “It will work here.” decided to start the actual test. failure and reply to our accusations, he He then felt confident of his success Cameras rolling, we took our places merely shrugged his shoulders. “It’s their in the same place where he had earlier around the table and put our fingers on fault, not mine!” he said. “They lack the claimed it could not be done at all. The it as before. After a few seconds, the psychic energy!” fact that the TV crew was growing medium started to moan and call for the He was the medium, but if we want impatient may have had something to spirits in his heavy accent. Oddly, he to see real psychic powers at work, we do with his decision. didn’t do any of this during the trial test. had better provide it ourselves.

18 Volume 34, Issue 5 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER SI Sept/Oct pgs_SI MJ 2010 7/29/10 10:14 AM Page 19

SCIENCE WATCH KENNETH W. KRAUSE

Startling Reflections in the Neandertal Genome

onsidered neither chic nor sleek, as Neandertals vanished from the record ably pigment. They hunted ex pertly with Neandertals were once the around 28,000 years ago. stone points as well as implements CRichard Nixons of extinct hom - Bell chested and burly, with protrud- crafted from wood and bone. In 2007, inins. But thanks to a newly published ing brow ridges and feeble chins, Nean - Johannes Krause (also a member of draft sequence of our (kissing?) cousins’ der tals suffer much abuse in the popular Pääbo’s team) reported that Nean dertals nuclear genome, we don’t have Neander - imagination. Traditionally they have carried FOXP2, the gene that allows tals to kick around anymore. In fact, one been portrayed crudely as dullards humans to speak. And whatever the could argue—as Svante Pääbo, paleoge- because of their brutish appearance. causes of their eventual passing may have neticist at the Max Planck Institute in Their reputation as one-trick ponies fol- been, Neandertals ruled Eurasia’s volatile Leipzig, Germany, and leader of this project recently has—that Neandertals aren’t really extinct at all. Modern humans and Neandertals Neandertals were once the Richard Nixons of extinct share a common ancestor that lived hom inins. But thanks to a newly published draft between 270,000 and 400,000 years ago, according to Pääbo’s new estimate. This sequence of our (kissing?) cousins’ nuclear genome, ancestor lived in Europe and Asia—only as far east as southern Siberia and only as we don’t have Neander tals to kick around anymore. far south as the Middle East. Fossil evidence suggests that modern humans and Neandertals encountered one another in some way in the Middle East from at least lows their inability to survive either environs for more than 200,000 years— 80,000 years ago, and then later in irregular climate circumstances or (alter- longer than our species has existed. Europe. But, for reasons highly contested natively) the invasion of Cro-Magnon But the biggest news has just arrived. and yet unclear, Homo sapiens pressed on man during the late Pleistocene Epoch. Neandertals, it turns out, are human— But science has recently rehabilitated or at least a significant portion of most Kenneth W. Krause is a contributing editor and the Neandertal narrative. For whatever humans. In the May 7 issue of Science, books editor/columnist for the Human ist and a it’s worth, their brains were probably as Pääbo’s international team of scientists contributing editor and science news columnist large as (or larger than) ours. Apparently published a draft sequence of the Nean - for the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. He may be reached at gifted with symbolic thought, they deco- dertal genome composed of four billion [email protected]. rated their bodies with jewelry and prob- nucleotides from three individuals. To

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER September / October 2010 19 SI Sept/Oct pgs_SI MJ 2010 7/29/10 10:14 AM Page 20

their great surprise, they discovered that Neandertal mitochondrial DNA showed fossil evidence has long suggested inter- between 1 and 4 percent of the modern, that it consistently fell outside of the vari- breeding. For example, the 24,000-year- non-African human genome is derived ation found in contemporary humans. old Lagar Velho child, found in Portu gal from our maligned and misunderstood On the other hand, many paleoanthro- in the late 1990s, presents a mixture of relatives. In other words, Neander tals pologists rather expected these results. Neandertal and H. sapiens traits. and modern humans interbred. Milford Wolpoff of the Uni versity of Pääbo’s team assembled the genome This outcome stunned Pääbo and his Michigan and João Zilhão of the Uni - primarily using DNA from three Nean - colleagues because previous analyses of versity of Bristol in England argue that dertal limb bones—each from a separate female individual—found in Vindija Cave, Croatia and dated at 38,000 to 44,000 years old. They confirmed the sequence with smaller samples from El Sidrón, Spain; Neander Valley, Ger - many; and Mezmaiskaya, Russia—none of which differed significantly from the Vindija specimens. By contrasting their results with the chimpanzee genome, Pääbo’s team was able to distinguish ancestral genetic variants from their derived counterparts. To find out whether Neandertals are more closely related to some contemporary humans than to others, Pääbo then compared the derived Neandertal variants to those contained in the genomes of five living humans—a San from Southern Africa, a Yoruba from West Africa, a French European, a Papua New Guinean, and a Han Chinese. The San and Yoruba were deemed appropriate proxies for genetic diversity in Africa be - cause of their exceptionally ancient heritage. If gene flow between Neandertals and H. sapiens occurred prior to differ- entiation among human populations, Pääbo hypothesized, the Neandertal alleles would match those of individuals from some regions of the world more often than those of others. And the results revealed exactly that. After ruling out the ever-present possibility of contamination, the team concluded that “Neandertals share significantly more derived alleles with non- Africans than with Africans.” More specifically, Neandertals shared the same number of derived alleles with both the European and the Asians, but significantly more with either the European or the Asians than with either African. Notably, no Neandertal specimen has ever been found as far east as China or New Guinea. Thus, Pääbo inferred, because Nean - der tals are more closely related to all present-day non-Africans, and equally so,

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Neandertals and non-Africans must have pertain to cognitive development, muta- screening process for positive selection interbred with their common ancestors tions of which are presently implicated in and to follow up on specific candidate shortly after they de parted from Africa causing autism (CADPS2, AUTS2), schiz- genes, the function of which may have into the Middle East but before their fur- ophrenia (NRG3), and Down syndrome been altered during recent human evolu- ther migration into Eurasia. Such genetic (DYRK1A). Still others could be impor- tion. He hopes as well to explore the exchange could have taken place about tant for gene transcription (TTF1), Neandertal sequence more fully to iden- 80,000 years ago when Neandertal re - wound healing (PCD16), energy metabo- tify features unique to the species (or sub- mains began to show up in Israeli caves lism (THADA), and the beating of the species) and to illuminate Neandertal already occupied by humans (Qafzeh, sperm flagellum (SPAG17). genetic variation by analyzing the remains Skhul, and Tabun, for example), or even The team couldn’t say, however, of additional specimens. Additionally, later, about 50,000 to 60,000 years ago, whether these specific substitutions were perhaps his team will scrutinize the when a second group of H. sapiens set out the result of random drift or positive genomes of other extinct hominin forms from Africa. Even so, the team wouldn’t selection. They also searched the modern to determine whether they, too, have con- completely exclude an alternative possibil- human sequence for “selective sweeps”— tributed to the human blueprint. ity—that their results might instead reveal lengthy swaths of DNA in cluding muta- Regardless, Pääbo and his colleagues an “old substructure” in Africa that lasted tions absent in the Nean dertal and chimp have already advanced humanity’s self- from Neandertal origins until non- African migration. In any case, a prominent and long- standing debate in paleoanthropology has finally been resolved. The Nean - dertal genome does indeed live on in In any case, a prominent and long-standing debate present-day humans. But “the most in - teresting development,” Pääbo re cently in paleoanthropology has finally been resolved. told me, may be “the identification of The Nean dertal genome does indeed live genes that were positively selected in humans after their divergence from on in present-day humans. Neandertals.” In other words, the Neandertal sequence has begun to reveal some of the recently evolved traits that make us uniquely human. But there were surprises lurking here too. Using the chimpanzee, orangutan, genomes. Extensive affected regions, the knowledge by meteoric leaps and and rhesus macaque genomes in addi- prevailing theory goes, imply relatively bounds. We now have confirmation that tion to those of modern humans and intense selective pressures. Again through the genomes of long-extinct hominins Neandertals, the team located only sev- genomic comparisons, Pääbo successfully can be reliably salvaged. We know that enty-eight recent nucleotide substitu- identified 212 such sweeps in the modern the strictest “out of Africa” hypothesis of tions capable of altering the protein-cod- human genome, many surrounding human origins is untenable, and that the ing capacity of genes where moderns are genes commonly thought to involve environment—whether natural or man- fixed for a derived state and where brain function in some way. made—continues to shape the contours Neandertals bear the ancestral, more The new Neandertal sequence is im - of our epic evolutionary adventure. We chimp-like version. And just five genes perfect to say the least. Although Pääbo’s should appreciate as well that genetic had accumulated multiple substitu- team decoded roughly 5.3 billion nucleo - rifts between modern human populations—a shockingly small number, given tides in total—the human genome con- tions can run quite deep indeed, and the ample span of time. Indeed, changes tains about 3 billion—much of that total thus they can be ignored only at our to human accelerated regions (HARs)— consists of duplications. The team con- common peril. conserved throughout most of vertebrate fesses as well that more than one-third of And hopefully we’ve gained a great evolution but altered drastically during the genome remains unsequenced. Pääbo deal more respect for our exceptionally hominin evolution—tended to predate expects his fair share of criticism at some intimate relatives, the Neandertals. Far the human–Neandertal split. point, but he says it’s a bit too early to from ugly, dim-witted, or incompetent, Even so, Pääbo was able to identify expect serious reproaches from other sci- our “sister group,” as Pääbo’s team has general roles, if not specific functions, entists. The religious community re mains dubbed them, will have much to teach associated with some of our newly altered silent as well, which Pääbo finds some- us in the coming years. But many of us genes. Three alleles carrying multiple sub- what surprising. can’t really talk about Neandertals as stitutions affect skin physiology, including Meanwhile, science turns its collective “them” anymore because, in fact, pigmentation (TRPM1). Others might gaze forward. Pääbo wants to improve the Neandertals are “us.”

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER September / October 2010 21 SI Sept/Oct pgs_SI MJ 2010 7/22/10 4:41 PM Page 22

THINKING ABOUT SCIENCE MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI

The Internet Is Really Bad—Or Is It?

uman civilization, it seems, is the introduction of new technologies dinner plans, and he has trouble focus- finally coming to an end. and ways of learning and communicating on his family. ... He goes to sleep HSurprisingly, the culprit is nei- ing. As Jonah Lehrer reminds us in his with a laptop or iPhone on his chest, ther the proliferation of nuclear weapons New York Times review of Carr’s book and when he wakes, he goes online. ... nor climate change, but the Inter net. At (May 27, 2010), Socrates thought that When he rides the subway to San least that’s the impression one gets these books were a really bad idea, taking Francisco, he knows he will be offline days from reading a number of articles on away from our ability to memorize and [for] 221 seconds as the train goes how the ’net is rewiring our brains or transmit oral traditions. And in the sev- through a tunnel.” Mrs. Campbell reading books like Nicholas Carr’s The enteenth century, Robert Burton com- “makes breakfast and watches a TV Shallows: What the Internet Is Doing to plained of the chaos and confusion cre- news feed in the corner of the computer Our Brains. In his book, Carr compares ated by the availability of so many screen while [Mr. Campbell] uses the his brain to that of HAL9000, the con- books. That was a full four centuries rest of the monitor to check his e-mail.” scious computer of 2001: A Space Odyssey. Just like HAL felt his brain being deacti- vated by his human antagonist in the movie, Carr feels that his own little grey Socrates thought that books were a really bad idea, cells are being reprogrammed so that he can only skim the surface of readings and taking away from our ability to memorize and trans- is no longer able to immerse himself in mit oral traditions. And in the seventeenth century, the depths of a serious task. Apparently that didn’t stop him from writing a book, Robert Burton complained of the chaos and confusion an enterprise that I can assure you is made created by the availability of so many books. much easier by the existence of the Internet and requires a significant ability to focus for sustained periods of time. Carr is only the latest in a long tradi- before Amazon.com. Okay, that really does call for medical tion of intellectuals who complain about Of course, it is not difficult to come intervention, but contrary to the New up with real life examples of people York Times commentary, this isn’t “your Massimo Pigliucci is professor of philosophy at whose lives have, in fact, been signifi- brain on computers”; it’s the Campbells’ the City University of New York–Lehman cantly disrupted by the new technology. brains on computers. College, a fellow of the American Association The New York Times published a long What makes current complaints for the Advance ment of Science, and author of article (June 6, 2010) on the Campbell about the Internet something more than Nonsense on Stilts: How to Tell Science from family of San Francisco. Mr. Campbell the latest Luddite rant is that they ap - Bunk. His essays can be found at www.ratio- “craves the stimulation he gets from his pear to be based on science, not just nallyspeaking.org. electronic gadgets. He forgets things like anecdotal evidence. Carr, for instance,

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refers to a study of scientific citation compare how well you do with two ranging from visual perception to—sur- patterns revealing an increasing trend to experimental groups: so-called low and prisingly—sustained at tention). We cite chiefly the recent literature. The high multitaskers. The latter are the should pay close attention to what science allegation is that the Internet is making Internet-damaged poor devils who can’t has to say about all aspects of our lives, all of us read the same stuff, but a more focus and only fool themselves into but I was struck by the sudden spate of sensible interpretation would be that thinking they are multitasking. Even doomsday scenarios that cite science to scientists tend to cite more recent works though I’m a high multitasker and a support them while curiously neglecting because they focus on the latest ad - heavy user of the Internet (and of my vances, not on the history of the field. In Droid and Kindle), I actually scored the considerable amount of science that fact, the availability of online databases better than the average low multitaskers reaches different conclusions. of journal articles and books that go (the control group) and easily crushed In the end, of course, new technol- back many decades makes it possible for the high multitaskers. This is, of course, ogy will turn out to be a mixed blessing, us to look at a much larger chunk of the anecdotal evidence based on a sample just like Socrates feared. And, as usual, literature in a much shorter period of size of one, but what are the chances the problem is not the technology itself time than ever before. that I am beyond the nintey-ninth per- but how we use it. My new apartment in Perhaps the most compelling re - centile in this regard? New York is entirely physical-book free, search so far on the dangers of multi- The reality is that we don’t know a situation that will probably horrify tasking with new technologies is the one much about what the Internet is doing to many readers. Yet I have tripled the that The New York Times uses as the our brains. It is certainly affecting them number of books I read since I moved to basis for a test (which, apparently with- because anything we do affects our brains, out irony, you can take online at particularly when it comes to intellectual the Kindle—not an insignificant posi- http://nyti.ms/axA8qk) that measures activities. But the available research is a tive result, especially when coupled with your ability to focus and juggle tasks. I mixed bag, showing both potential prob- the much better use of my small city took the test because I was somewhat lems, at least for some people, and some abode and lower carbon footprint of my skeptical of the claims. The idea is to definite gains (e.g., in cognitive tasks paper-free surroundings.

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER September / October 2010 23 SI Sept/Oct pgs_SI MJ 2010 7/22/10 4:41 PM Page 24

PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER

Night Vision Optics Reveal Fleets of UFOs

s an amateur astronomer partici- http://tinyurl.com/mqbfpq, and http:// you non-Cali fornians), one could hardly pating in science-education out- tinyurl.com/283pj29, which seem to see stars fainter than about magnitude A reach, I often encounter beliefs show a bright satellite passing). The night two (the stars in the Big Dipper). But and questions about UFOs, extraterres- vision equipment reveals objects that are using the night vision device, which inter- trials, and other unusual subjects. How - too faint to be seen by the unaided eye. If estingly did not magnify objects but sim- ever, until recently, never before had I you see something you can’t identify, then ply amplified light, I could easily see all of encountered such a well-organized, ded- it must be a UFO. Sometimes the men the stars in the sickle of Leo and the faint icated, but ultimately clueless group of UFO watchers as those who turned up at one monthly public star party conducted by the San Diego Astronomy Association just outside the Fleet Science They were participating in one of UFOlogy’s latest Center in San Diego’s Balboa Park. Five fads: using pricey high-technology night vision young adult men, joined later by several women, were showing off their new night equipment to reveal things that the naked eye doesn’t vision binoculars and cameras while asking all manner of questions about tele- see—and calling what they don’t understand “UFOs.” scopes. It turns out that they were participating in one of UFOlogy’s latest fads: using pricey high-technology night vision equipment to reveal things that the naked eye doesn’t see—and calling what they pointed a powerful green laser at such stars of Ursa Major as if I were out under don’t understand “UFOs.” objects so others can try to see them. I dark skies in the country. Sud denly, a very They were inspired by claims they warned them that if you are pointing a bright white object dashed through my had heard from a number of sources, laser at an aerial object and you don’t field of view, covering the distance from including Coast to Coast AM, the well- know what it is, you might be shining it zenith to about 20 degrees elevation in a known late-night paranormal and con- into the cockpit of an aircraft. The point few seconds. A flying saucer? But it spiracy-fest radio show hosted by George was appreciated. banked and turned back in my direction, Noory (see http://tinyurl.com/3465no3, When it was my turn to look through and I could detect the flapping of wings. the night vision binoculars (which I An owl had been spotted several times cir- Robert Sheaffer’s “Psychic Vibrations” column believe sell for approximately $2,500), I cling the lighted buildings nearby. When has appeared in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER for the was astonished at how much I could see. that owl flew directly over us, it was too past thirty years. He is also author of UFO Standing under the light-polluted urban dark to be seen with the naked eye, but Sightings: The Evi dence (Prometheus 1998). His skies, with many nearby streetlights and a the goggles easily picked it up. Web site is at www.debunker.com. marine layer developing (that’s “fog” to I was told that the group had captured

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objects moving along like satellites that seriously believe that all of these angle telescope of three or four inches suddenly stopped and reversed them - astronomers are not seeing this or, is it diameter or, better yet, large binoculars in selves, which no satellite could do. How - possible that these astronomers see what which one side is for the observer who ever, none of the video clips they showed he sees and can readily identify them?” tracks and the other is for the camera. me on their camera confirmed this claim. The night vision UFOlogists I en - However, even if there were some- They did show a clip of two satellites countered wanted to buy a telescope, and thing spooky up there to track, this traveling side-by-side in tandem. I ex - they were apparently willing to spend approach is unlikely to yield high-reso- plained that they had very likely cap- $1,000 or more on it to get close-up lution images. Night vision optics trade tured one of the clusters of the Naval videos of these objects. They were think- sensitivity for resolution, and bright Ocean Surveillance System satellites (see ing about getting a Cassegranian reflect- objects spill out into a circle of light that www.satobs.org/noss.html). The U.S. ing telescope as large as eight inches in in no way reflects their angular size. A Navy operates several clusters of two or diameter, which can easily deliver a useful good pair of binoculars will reveal three satellites that maintain a strict for- magnification of at least 400x. (Cheap fainter objects than night vision coun- mation and are apparently used to pin- telescopes sold in department stores often terparts, albeit with a smaller field of point the source of radio and radar lure the unsophisticated with promises of view but with much better resolution. transmissions. Normally they are too magnifications of 600x or more. How - There’s nothing in the sky that a night faint to be easily seen by the unaided ever, although any telescope can theoreti- vision device can see that I can’t also see eye, although occasionally the sun angle cally achieve any magnification if you in my 10x50 binoculars, and I can see brightens them to naked-eye visibility. throw enough doubling lenses onto it, details much more clearly. But now that When UFO seekers stumble across one the image quality is so poor it is useless.) the fad for imaging UFOs in night of these clusters using optical magnifica- The group would then demonstrate the vision has started and sophisticated tion or amplification, they often con- existence of secret, off-the-record surveil- equipment is being used eagerly by the clude that they have discovered a forma- lance satellites or even actual extraterres- unsophisticated, we can look forward to tion of UFOs. Tim Printy has some interesting articles on night vision UFOlogy in his Web ’zine Sunlite (see http://home.comcast.net/~tprinty/UFO/SUNlite2_2.pdf). He notes that Ed Grimsley claims to have recorded “space battles” of UFOs in which there are as many as forty-five “kills” in one battle, which he is selling on DVDs. “Whoever it is we are battling, it is very serious and a threat to our National Security,” Grimsley warns on his Web site. In fact, Grimsley claims to have been watching UFOs battling it out in the sky since he was a boy in 1961. Printy counters that it is “aston- ishing in that no astronomical telescopes or astronomers (professional or amateur) have seen these events even though Grimsley was able to see them with his unaided eye before he obtained his night trial vehicles. After all, didn’t some ama- many more UFO claims from perfectly vision goggles.” teur photographers capture the Inter - sincere persons who do not have a clear Printy continues, “Amateur and pro- national Space Station (ISS) clearly idea of what can be seen in the sky. fessional astronomers have been monitor- enough to reveal its shape? Yes, that’s ing the skies with equipment far superior true, I explained. But there exists soft- * * * to what Grimsley is using for many years. ware to track Earth satellites using a tele- Spiral UFOs strike again! On December For instance, you can read [online articles scope with a go-to mount, and the 9, 2009, news organizations worldwide that describe the astronomers’ photo- objects that you want to image are on reported sightings of a “mysterious giant graphic sky survey programs]. ... These unknown paths, so they must be tracked spiral of light” over Norway (see my articles have been written in the past manually. The greater the magnification, “Psychic Vibrations” column, SI, March/ decade but the footnotes demonstrate the smaller the field of view and, hence, April 2010). Despite breathless specula- that people have been doing this kind of the more difficulty there is in tracking. I tion along the lines of “the space specta- work for some time. Does Mr. Grimsley suggested they look into a small, wide- cle is an entirely new astral phenome-

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non,” the object turned out to be a ground track of a satellite launched from been a couple of hundred kilometers up.” Russian Bulava missile spinning while Cape Canaveral on the same day (the Then Moffett, who seems not to venting propellant, much like a spinning SpaceX Falcon 9), which placed the ob - understand the concept of “orbit,” asked, garden sprinkler. ject right over eastern Australia at the time “Why would anyone launch a rocket on On the morning of June 5, 2010, at of the sightings. a maiden test flight with a trajectory that approximately 5:50 AM local time, many However, Doug Moffett of UFO would take it over the most heavily pop- observers in eastern Australia reported Research NSW wasn’t buying any of that ulated parts of Australia?” seeing a “strange spiral light” moving “rocket booster” business: “Firstly, the Plait responded, “If the rocket failed, across the sky, and several captured it on time of the launch was 18.45 GMT, it would have done so over the Atlantic. video. James Butcher of Canberra told which translates to 4.45am [Australian] That’s why we launch rockets from Flor - Australian Broadcasting, “It had a dis- EST, the duration of the flight was 9 min- ida in the first place!” If the rocket made tinct bright centre, much like a bright utes 38 seconds—this is a full hour before star, indicating an object shedding light the reported sightings.” it as far as Australia, it did so because it trails, spiralling and fattening out from it. Plait countered, “This isn’t a starship, was safely in Earth orbit. The effect lasted only two or three min- it’s a rocket, and takes time to go around And finally, Moffett speculated, utes, moving and descending quick ly out the Earth. An orbit is usually 90 minutes “How big must this rocket have been to of view” (see http://tinyurl.com/Aussie in period, so it takes about 45 minutes or be seen so clearly, at the same time, over Spiral). UFO enthusiasts on Web sites so to get from Florida to Australia. Plus, such a vast distance?” such as abovetopsecret.com quickly spun since this was a launch it wasn’t moving at Plait replied, “Anyone familiar with far-out explanations of what it might be, top speed the whole time; it took a few the sky knows that satellites are easy to such as activity from “Australia’s area 51.” minutes to accelerate to orbital speeds. spot with just your [naked] eye. Rockets But the Bad Astronomer, Phil Plait, That makes the timing about perfect.” can be even easier, especially when got right on it. In a posting on his Bad Moffet’s next objection was, “Where they’re spewing out gas! This is some- Astronomy blog titled “Oh, Those Falcon was the glow from the boosters or from thing I’ve been saying for years: if you UFOs,” Plait explained that as soon as he the friction created by the craft moving know what you’re looking at in the saw the Australian videos, he was through the atmosphere, where was the sky—meteors, satellites, planets, and so reminded of the Norway spiral from last tail of the rocket?” on—a lot of UFO stories evaporate. The December and surmised that it was prob- Plait responded, “The Falcon 9 was fact that so many reported UFOs turn ably a rocket booster venting excess pro- up and outside the atmosphere in the out to be mundane objects is a pretty pellant (see http://blogs.discovermagazin first few minutes of flight, when it was good sign that more than a few UFO e.com/badastronomy/2010/06/05/oh- barely over the Atlantic! So by the time it enthusiasts aren’t terribly familiar with those-falcon-ufos/). He ob tained the was passing over Australia it would’ve observing the sky.”

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26 Volume 34, Issue 5 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER SI Sept/Oct pgs_SI MJ 2010 7/22/10 4:41 PM Page 27

THE SKEPTICAL INQUIREE BENJAMIN RADFORD

The Truth about the 9/11 Truthers

executed by conspirators. The question, often uses a demonstration using three cardboard boxes to make his Q What’s up with the “9/11 of course, is who those conspirators : point. ... In fact, it is an excellent Truth” movement? From what I gather, were. Osama bin Laden and the crew of (mostly Saudi Arabian) hijackers were example of pseudoscience. What’s 9/11 Truthers believe that the Sep tem ber actually relevant here is load vs. struc- 11 terrorist attacks were an inside job by part of the conspiracy, but what about ture: the fact that dynamic loads are the U.S. government—and some scien- President Bush and Vice President Dick not the same as static loads. ... Once tists support their claims. Is this true? Cheney? Did top Bush advisors, includ- the top floors of the towers fell even ing Paul Wolfowitz and Donald Rums - one floor’s height, the horrifying —F. Nocedal feld, collaborate with bin Laden or in - “piledriver” collapse became in evit - tentionally allow the attacks to happen? able. I showed how WTC 7 had been severely damaged by debris from Perhaps no event in the past few Put another way, was it an inside job? A: Tower 1 and showed evidence (rou- Groups such as the 9/11 Truthers be - decades has spawned more conspiracy tinely ignored by “Truthers”) of the theories than the September 11, 2001, lieve it was and point to a catalog of sup- severe fires that burned for many terrorist attacks. The confusion and posed inconsistencies in the “official ver- hours in Tower 7. chaos of the event bred myths and mission” of the attacks, often based on real information that remain long after the or perceived “anomalies.” Many of the Thomas cautions, “Don’t smugly as - toxic dust settled over Manhattan. Some technical conspiracy claims were de - sume this conspiracy is confined to the stories were outright hoaxes, such as the bunked by Popular Mechanics magazine lunatic fringe. After years of polishing and infamous photo of a doomed tourist in March 2005, while other claims are refinement, 9/11 Truth efforts have per- taken atop one of the World Trade Cen - refuted by simple logic: If a hijacked air- suaded many citizens, including some of ter towers just before a plane hit. Some plane did not crash into the Pentagon, as my relatives and close friends, to consider were well-intentioned myths about the is often claimed, then where is Flight 77 the attacks an ‘inside job.’” In many con- terrorists and their victims. In the ab - and its passengers? Are they on ice with spiracy theories, bureaucratic incompe- sence of clear and immediate answers, the Roswell aliens at Hangar 18? tence is mistaken for conspiracy. Our gov- wild speculation ran rampant, and con- The claims of 9/11 Truthers are far ernment is so efficient, knowledgeable, spiracy theorists inevitably latched onto too varied and detailed to go into here, and capable—so the reasoning goes— the biggest conspiracy since the Kennedy but CSI Fellow Dave Thomas recently that it could not possibly have botched assassination or the Roswell crash. described his experience debating a 9/11 the job so badly in detecting the plot The evidence that the terrorist at - Truther in our December 2009 Skeptical ahead of time or responding to the tacks were indeed the result of a con- Briefs news letter. Thomas notes: spiracy is overwhelming. There’s no attacks. I’m skeptical. None of the 9/11 Truth claims really doubt about it: a close (or even cursory) hold up under scrutiny. For example, Note: The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER will have more on look at the evidence makes it clear that regarding the Twin Towers’ collapse, the September 11 conspiracy claims in a future the attacks were carefully planned and [California architect Richard] Gage issue.

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MARTIN GARDNER 1914—2010

A Tribute and Celebration

Martin Gardner, the polymath writer, critic, and column appears on page 10.) Throughout his life, and mind, we here present invited tributes from a skeptic who is widely regarded as the father of Gardner wrote knowledgeably about an astonish- number of noted skeptics and scholars. We begin modern skepticism, died May 22, 2010, in Norman, ing range of topics with a combination of clarity, with two of his closest friends and colleagues, Ray Oklahoma, at the age of ninety-five. He helped wit, and critical intelligence that delighted readers Hyman and James Randi. Like him, they were found- found our Com mittee for Skeptical Inquiry (then worldwide. Those who knew him regarded him as ing fellows of CSICOP and original and longtime members of its executive council. CSICOP) and wrote for this magazine since its a dear friend, a modest man, and a national intel- inception. (His final “Notes of a Fringe Watcher” lectual treasure. In a celebration of his life, writings, —The Editor

Martin Gardner: In the Name of Science (1952). The book was re-issued in 1957, with some updat- A Polymath to the Nth Power ing, under the title Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science. It serves as the proto- RAY HYMAN type for modern skeptical criticism. From 1958 to 1961, while I was doing Persi Diaconis phoned me on May 17, supported by the evidence. He felt that psychological research for General Elec - 2010. He told me he recently spoke his background as a magician enabled tric, I lived in Hartsdale, about twenty- with Martin Gardner by phone. Among him to explain how many alleged psy- five miles from Martin Gardner’s home other things, they had talked about me. chic occurrences were due to trickery or on Euclid Avenue in Hastings-on-the- He also said that Martin sounded fine mundane causes. Hudson, New York. During this period and seemed to be as cognitively sharp as I first met Martin in 1950 at the my wife and I would get together with always. I had not spoken with Martin home of Bruce Elliot in Greenwich Martin and his wife, Charlotte, for din- for quite a while. I made a note on my Village in New York. Bruce published a ner. I also was able to visit and talk with calendar to call him on Saturday, May 22. magazine on magic, The Phoenix, and him about our mutual interests. On that Saturday, I was about to call wrote several books about magic. Every When I moved to Oregon in 1961 to Martin when I got a phone call from Saturday he hosted a gathering for magi- work at the University of Oregon, Martin Martin’s son, James. James told me that cians from New York or who happened phoned Jerry Andrus and told him I had his father had passed away a few moments to be in the vicinity. I was twenty-one moved into his neighborhood. He sug- earlier. years old when I was invited to attend. gested that Jerry contact me. Jerry did and Many persons—too many—would This was the first time I met many we became close friends until Jerry’s seek mystical meaning in this “coinci- celebrity magicians such as Dai Vernon, unfortunate death in dence.” Martin, of course, devoted Jay Marshall, and Martin Gardner. August 2007. Martin much of his life to teaching us how eas- Martin and I became good friends. I and Jerry are the two ily our minds create meaning out of post knew him as a magician, a creator of most impressive indi- hoc juxtapositions of random events. magic effects, and a writer of excellent viduals I have ever Although he thought that most believers books on magic. In addition, we shared known. Both were es - were impervious to reason, he perse- an interest in investigating and challeng- sentially self-taught in vered in his quest to show that most, if ing paranormal claims. Soon after our magic, philosophy, sci- not all, paranormal claims cannot be first meeting, Martin published his classic ence, and other areas.

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You can gain some insights into the ates from speed reading classes who made it clear that nothing that this range and impact of Martin’s productive claim to be reading 1,000 or more alleged psychic did had anything to do life by reading the many obituaries that words per minute are actually skipping with the paranormal. Soon after that, have appeared online. In the remaining over large chunks of text by exploiting Randi observed Geller at the offices of few lines at my disposal, I will discuss redundancy. When they are given text to Time magazine in New York. He, too, only a couple of my many personal sto- read from domains with which they are saw through Geller’s pretensions. ries involving this Renaissance man. unfamiliar, their reading drops to the I have always been interested in how same speed as those who have never In 1973, Randi phoned me from Port - productive individuals organize their taken a special course. land, Oregon. He was touring with Alice lives and manage their data. Soon after Cooper and asked me to travel from Martin’s operation for cataracts, I asked Eugene to Portland to meet him. While I him how he managed to read and review was in Portland, Randi reviewed our so many books while continuing his pro - experiences with Geller and suggested digious literary output and maintaining that we get together with Martin Gardner a colossal correspondence. Martin told and form a group to counter false claims me that, in most cases, he did not actu- of the paranormal. He suggested we call ally read the books he reviewed. Instead, he simply scanned the index, which pro- the group SIR (Sanity in Research), which vided all the information he needed for evoked the acronym SRI. his review. Randi and I soon afterwards spent a I was incredulous at first, but on sec- day with Martin at his home in Hastings- ond thought I realized that this was con- on-Hudson preparing a detailed docu- sistent with my research on information ment of the goals and hopes for our new theory and redundancy. I had already group. In 1976, SIR joined forces with discovered that I could scan the indices Paul Kurtz, who was already publishing of textbooks in statistics, perception, skeptical articles in The Humanist, which and cognitive psychology and know all I needed to know about how the book he edited at that time. The resulting orga- handled its topic. For example, by not- Martin not only wrote the seminal nization became known as CSICOP ing the topics the author listed and, textbook for the modern skeptical (now CSI), and the contemporary skepti- more importantly, the ones she did not, movement, but he was also central to cal movement was born. I could confidently guess her stance on the actual founding of the movement. various issues. This was because I In December 1972, I was sent by the Ray Hyman is emeritus professor of psychol- already knew these areas quite well. De fense Department to observe Uri ogy at the University of Oregon. An expert in Martin’s ability to exploit redundancy Geller and the researchers at the the psychology of self-deception, he is a induced me to conduct research on Stanford Research Institute (SRI). My founding fellow of CSICOP and founding speed reading. I discovered that gradu- report, which I shared with Martin, member of the CSICOP executive council.

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MARTIN GARDNER

Martin Gardner Has Left Us admiration for the Alice stories by Lewis Carroll. He pored over every sentence JAMES RANDI that Carroll had constructed and ex - tracted from them every sort of nuance he could, and of course he recorded his Where to begin? I’ve really no idea Arthur C. Clarke, and maybe a magician observations in writing—to the delight of where or exactly when I first met Martin colleague of mine, since his writings so his many, many fans over the years and Gardner. I believe our first meeting frequently touched on the sort of exper- around the globe. Martin’s spectrum of occurred in the offices of Scientific tise that only such a trio could summon interest was very broad. His coterie of American magazine more than six up. They were appropriately amazed and friends included major professional magi- decades ago, but it seems that I have edified when I assured them that this cians, mathematicians of every sort, always known him. He became such a paragon was actually a single person, a philosophers, a few scoundrels, and a suf- fixture in my life, such a dependable real human being who was quite as ficient variety of weirdos to round out his part of my world. I was so very accus- accomplished as he ap peared to be. perception of the world. As an atheist tomed to picking up the telephone to Another matter on which I was myself, I admit that I was somewhat sur- call him or answering a call from him queried from time to time was whether prised that this man was a deist. When I that always resulted in an improvement or not Martin actually had academic inquired about this apparent lapse of of my knowledge of the universe. degrees in mathematics—which he did logic, he calmly informed me that he was not. As he once ex - well aware the atheists had a much better pressed it to me, after argument than he did and that in fact he beginning his column had no supporting evidence for his accep- in Scientific American tance of a deity. It simply made him “feel (SA), he sort of learned more comfortable,” and knowing Martin it as he went along. as I did, I merely accepted that fact and And I must say that I somewhat celebrated it. Anything that believe that was true. improved Martin’s life improved mine. He always ex pressed his At our next Amaz!ng Meeting in July, delight at something we of the James Randi Educational Foun - that he had just stum- dation will certainly not hold any sort of bled upon or that had memorial to Martin Gardner. That would occurred to his agile have embarrassed him hugely, I’m quite mind as he applied it to sure. His son Jim, calling me to announce a problem at hand. his father’s demise, added that the will he Indeed, “delight” was a major characteristic of left behind specified that there be no this man’s makeup. funeral and that cremation would be pre- That enthusiasm cer- ferred. That’s my Martin, and I expected tainly carried over into no less. No, at the July conference we will his books and his SA celebrate the existence of this fine gentle- column. He was con- man, one of my giants, a huge intellect, a stantly celebrating dis- prolific author, and a caring, responsible, Martin Gardner (front) and James Randi at the very first CSICOP meeting, coveries, expanding on citizen of the world. If we can manage it, August 1977 in New York City. them, and looking for we’ll have balloons and dancing girls— new ways to communi- which would have titillated Mr. Gardner, Traveling the world, as I have done cate them to the public—and especially to I guarantee you. most of my life, I’ve found that some young people. He was never happier than Yes, he’s gone away, but his wise words academics doubt that I actually knew when he was in the company of kids to and his great love for reason and compas- this legendary figure in person. I recall whom he would present a brain teaser, sion will remain with us forever. I loved that when I delivered a lecture to the sys- followed by the “Aha!” phase in which he him dearly, but I leave him to the ages. tems engineers of IBM many years ago, a would provide an answer—usually totally talk during which I referred to Martin, I unexpected—that made everything quite Magician, investigator, and writer James was besieged by a group from the audi- clear. Randi is founder of the James Randi ence who asked me to settle whether That lucidity of his work made him a Educational Foundation. Randi was an origi- Martin was an actual individual or per- great teacher. His weaving of a story nal member of the CSICOP executive council haps an amalgamation of Isaac Asimov, might have been inspired by his total and is a founding fellow.

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A Tribute and Celebration

Martin Gardner’s Contributions such as in his book Urantia: The Great Cult Mystery (1995, revised 2008). Martin to the World of Books told me that he maintained extensive clippings on a wide range of topics and so PAUL KURTZ could bring empirical facts to bear to expose the beliefs held. Martin Gardner was a unique man of let- An important book by Martin was ters, a science writer who not only wrote Great Essays in Science (1994), which columns for Scientific American and the includ ed thirty-one of SKEPTICAL INQUIRER but who was a pro- some of the best writ- lific author of over seventy books! Perhaps ings in science over the his reputation in the past 100 years. These long run will depend in clud ed thought-pro- on the provocative voking contributions books that he au - that represented the thored over the years. peak of accomplish- Al though we may be ments in science. at “the beginning of Prometheus also published a novel by the end of the Age of Martin called The Flight of Peter Fromm Books” (alas!), Gard - (1994), which seemed to echo his own ner stands out as a religious beliefs. I was curious that Martin heroic author whose books on pseudo- himself clung to his religious faith in God, science we hope will be read in the future somewhat apologetically. “I can’t prove with relish and delight—as reminders of it,” he seemed to say, “but I am attached how easy it is to be deceived. to it.” I found this statement rather I know Martin Gardner best as a book Martin Gardner (right) talking with Paul Kurtz at charming, if only because it contradicts author; Prometheus Books published at 1989’s CSICOP Executive Council meeting in Tampa, doctrinaire atheists who insist that any least twenty-five of his books. Several of Florida. Gardner rarely attended meetings, and his true skeptic must be an atheist. these were new editions of books previ- legendary elusiveness seems evident even here, with Gardner’s last new book with Prome - his back mostly to the camera. ously published. I founded Pro metheus theus was The Jinn from Hyperspace and in 1969, and it has devoted more atten- mon sense.” It was a nominee for a Other Scribblings—Both Serious and tion than any other press to publishing national book award. So his career with Whimsical (2007). New Scientist re - books on scientific skepticism and the Prometheus got off to a rousing start. We viewed the book by paranormal. Martin was tickled pink that would hear from him almost biweekly stating that it was Prometheus Books was willing to take on thereafter, as he kept proposing books “clear, closely argued, the paranormalists. and then saw them through the editorial and entertaining . .. I first got to know Martin when I process until publication. Martin had a a fascinating insight founded the modern skeptics movement keen intelligence and a sharp wit, which in to the breadth of (in the guise of CSICOP, later CSI), so he used with consummate skill. in terest and fecun- to speak, and invited him to the inau- We were intrigued with the titles that dity of the man now gural meeting at the State University of he came up with, such as On the Wild in his nineties.” New York at Buffalo on April 30, 1976. Side (hardcover 1992, paperback 2004), To which I say I was delighted when he accepted and which dealt with the big bang, ESP, the amen about all of Gardner’s books, an even more so when he appeared. His Beast 666, levitation, rainmaking, inexhaustible treasury of insight and publishing romance with Prometheus trance-channeling, séances, ghosts, and wisdom. Martin Gardner played a key began a few years later. He shared with more. Another one was How Not to Test role in his time as a keen advocate of sci- us a devotion to books—the idea that a Psychic (1989). (Incidentally, the com- ence, a luminary in the constellation of books should be cherished as virtually plete list of Martin Gardner’s books still skeptics. He will be sorely missed. “sacred” because of their enduring con- available from Prometheus Books may Paul Kurtz is the founder of the Com mittee tributions to culture. be read online.) for Skeptical Inquiry, the Coun cil for Secular Martin’s first book with Prometheus It was amazing to me how Martin Humanism, the Center for Inquiry, and was Science: Good, Bad and Bogus was able to delve into what many con- Prometheus Books. He is emeritus professor (1981). The New York Times described it sidered nutty claims. He took them seri- of philosophy, State Uni versity of New York at as “a valuable book . . . an ally of com- ously and made them seem even nuttier, Buffalo.

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We Have Lost an Icon ment, I was delighted that I would rub shoulders with the man himself, for he JAMES ALCOCK was one of the founders of CSICOP and a member of its executive council. I soon learned, however, that he was averse to It takes a special kind of person to write apparent paucity of critical literature on travel and did not usually attend council insightfully about quantum mechanics the subject? I dug out Fads and Fallacies in meetings. I therefore had to wait to meet and mathematics—and literature and reli- the Name of Science and let Martin intro- him until a meeting was held in Atlanta, gion and pseudoscience and conjuring duce me to the subject. That simple which was near enough to his home at the and philosophy. And it takes a very special beginning unexpectedly led me into time that he did indeed attend. Martin kind of person to be able to do so in a way decades of critical commentary and the man proved to be as impressive as that is comprehensible, enlightening, debate with regard to parapsychology. Martin the icon. He was gentle, intelli- entertaining to the intelligent layperson, Later on, as a young psychology pro- gent, witty, modest, curious, and filled and worthy of the respect of experts. Such fessor, I was researching how people with creative energy and imagination. A a rare person was Martin Gardner, and his maintain their beliefs in the face of con- longtime fan such as I could not avoid achievements are all the more impressive tradictory evidence. I wanted a demon- feeling a little star-struck, although it was given that he was largely self-taught and stration that would confront subjects with very clear that stardom was the last thing without advanced degrees in physics, ostensible evidence that something they that he wanted. I remember our first con- mathematics, literature, or philosophy. held to be absolutely true was apparently versation very well: he was a major con- I knew Martin Gardner the icon rather false. Where to begin? I turned to Martin tributor to the conjuring literature, and well, and I owe him a considerable debt Gardner once again: I began re-reading when he learned that I was an amateur for what I have learned from him over the some of his books and articles and soon magician, he im mediately and graciously years. When I was an undergraduate came across the perfect vehicle for my responded by sharing with me a new physics student, my classmates and I research—a puzzle, invented a century magical effect that he had just invented. I avidly devoured his “Mathematical earlier by Sam Lloyd but preserved and was struck by his warmth, his lack of pre- Games” column in Scientific American, analyzed by Gardner, in which a piece of tense, and his excitement about sharing along with his published collections of paper of a certain area, when cut into new ideas. mathematical puzzles and enigmas and pieces and the pieces rearranged, appears As I reminisce, I see that Martin has his other books on science and mathe- quite clearly to have gained in area. This had an important influence on me—as he matics. He helped make mathematics and was ideal for my purpose, for psycholo- no doubt has had upon countless others physics delightful to pursue. Later on, gists had long believed that all of us who have been devoted to his scholar- when I switched disciplines and became a acquire in childhood a firm belief in “con- ship—for a very long time. Whether as graduate student in psychology, I turned servation of area,” so that we “know” that Martin the icon or Martin the man, he has to his writings once again when I was area cannot be changed by the re arrange - enriched our lives. We shall all miss him. asked—nay, virtually ordered—by the ment of component parts. department chair to prepare a critical I had always been very impressed by James Alcock is professor of psychology at examination of extrasensory perception Martin Gardner the icon, but I was fortu- Glendon College, York University, Toronto, and (ESP) for presentation to undergraduate nate enough to be able to meet Martin author of such books as Parapsy chology: students who were clamoring for such a Gardner the man. This came about when Science or Magic? He is a founding CSICOP fel- talk. I knew nothing of the subject at the I was made a member of the CSICOP low and became a member of the executive time; so where was I to begin, given the executive council. With this ap point - council in 1983. A World Treasure powers. The other two subjects were likewise attracting a lot of media and popu- KENDRICK FRAZIER lar interest. We had done our best to treat them carefully and with some skepticism, but except for the one on Geller, One day back in 1974, when I was edi- gift in graduate school. I loved it. Mar - Martin didn’t think we’d done a particu- tor of Science News in Washington, DC, tin’s letter gently but firmly criticized us larly good job and was worried we’d put the mail brought a letter from Martin for a series of three articles we had run aside our usual scientific standards by Gardner. I knew of him, of course, as the over a period of months dealing with writing about them at all. “Mathematical Games” columnist in Sci - some fringe science matters: Uri Geller, I wasn’t at all offended by his criti- entific American and as author of the Kirlian photography, and Transcendental cism; in fact, I welcomed it. I wrote him seminal work about pseudoscience and Meditation. Readers had requested the back. I told him science writers and edi- crackpots, Fads and Fallacies in the Name articles. This was the heyday of Geller’s tors like me had few resources for check- of Science. I’d had a copy of that fascinat- then-rising popularity, and Geller had ing the validity of these kinds of claims. I ing book since a friend gave it to me as a some (naive) scientists vouching for his told him we needed people like him who

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had the necessary critical perspective and which he and I later renamed “Notes of a Jean Houston, Doug Henning, and information to help us. Some sort of Fringe Watcher”) ap peared in every issue Phillip Johnson to maverick Cornell group of scientific experts was needed to of SI from Sum mer 1983 to January/Feb - astronomer Tommy Gold (twice); and give us that kind of help. ruary 2002. He recently resumed it on an everything from James Randi’s Project So it was perhaps not surprising that in irregular basis, and his last one, mailed to Alpha (his first SI topic) to weird water, the spring of 1976 I found myself covering me May 12, ten days before his death, fuzzy logic, reflexology, urine therapy, for Science News an unusual conference on appears on page 10. psychic astronomy, the Klingon language, “The New Irrationalisms: Pseudo science Martin was an editor’s delight. His and the humorous yet profound question and Anti-Science” at the brand new columns always arrived early, usually of whether Adam and Eve had navels. SUNY Buffalo campus, at which philoso- weeks ahead of deadline. Sometimes he Every few years he would collect the SI pher Paul Kurtz an nounced the creation would check with me in advance about a col umns, together with a few reviews and of the Com mittee for the Scientific possible subject; more typically he just essays published elsewhere, in a new Investigation of Claims of the Para - mailed in a new column, surprising me book. The first were The New Age: Notes normal. It was exactly what I had asked for. My subsequent article for Science News—our cover pictured a small knight- like skeptic with only a sword of reason challenging a giant multi-headed dragon of pseudoscience (May 29, 1976)—stim- ulated more reader response than any other subject we had ever written about, which told me that this was a rich topic meriting much further examination. The nicest and most unexpected letter I re - ceived—I just now rediscovered it in my archives of those early events—was from Martin Gardner. He thanked me for the article, praised its accuracy, and called it a “wind of fresh air, long overdue.” One year later I was an invited guest and speaker at the first meeting of the CSICOP Executive Council, held at the Martin Gardner (with glasses) is at back left in this historic photo of the first CSICOP meeting, in August 1977 in New York City. From left are Lee Nisbet, Ray Hyman, James Randi, Gardner, and (at end of table) Paul Kurtz. old Biltmore Hotel in New York City (CSICOP archives) with Paul Kurtz, Ray Hyman, Phil Klass, and others including Martin Gardner with the topic. A new one’s arrival was of a Fringe Watcher and On the Wild Side. himself, to my delight. The next day I was always the high point of my day. They The latest three are Are Universes Thicker asked to join the organization as editor of were clear, concise, involving, revealing, Than Black berries? (2003), The Jinn from its new magazine (then called The Zetetic, knowledgeable, relevant, and usually Hyperspace (2008), and When You Were a renamed the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER the witty—the product of a lively, extraordi- Tadpole and I Was a Fish (2009). next year). So Martin Gard ner was not narily well-informed, unique mind. His On September 11, 2001 (yes, that only my introduction to any kind of sys- columns were substantive but at the same same terrible day), I opened a letter from tematic skepticism and one of my early time eminently readable. He typed them Martin that I had dreaded recieving. His encouragers, but he was also there when I double-spaced on an electric typewriter, beloved wife, Charlotte, had died earlier actually joined the effort. and the newspaperman in him (which he of a stroke, and he was getting two Over the ensuing three-plus decades, it had once been for awhile after studying columns to me quickly because he knew was my—and our readers’—pleasure to philosophy at the Uni versity of Chicago) he would soon go into a depression over have Martin Gardner write regularly for carefully corrected any typos or made her loss and be unable to write any more. SI. At first he wrote only occasional short short word changes with black ballpoint And, besides, he was eighty-seven. “I’ve articles and reviews. When he retired his pen. Also in the newspaper tradition, he had a long run,” he ended, “and doing the Scientific American column after thirty revised sections by cutting and pasting, column has been a great pleasure.” It was years, I wrote and asked if he’d like to con- which was always done impeccably. I sel- a sad day for all of us. But in 2005 I saw sider writing a regular column for SI on dom had to do any real editing. a new book review he had published else- pseudoscience and fringe science. I was Over the years his columns covered where, and I wrote and invited him to delighted when he agreed. Let’s give it a everyone from Russell Targ, Margaret once again write for SI if he felt he could. try, he answered, and see how it goes. Mead, Shirley MacLaine, Arthur Koest ler, His first was a two-article series on “The That column (“Notes of a Psi-Watcher,” Rupert Sheldrake, Marianne William son, Memory Wars.” We published it in our

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January/February and March/April 2006 conferences or spoke at public gatherings. other things—a brilliant and essentially issues. The first part appears in our latest Although this was a disappointment to self-taught intellectual who had the SI anthology, Science Under Siege (Pro - his myriad fans, I think he felt his time respect of the world’s greatest scientists metheus, 2009). was better spent doing his own kind of and academics. The grandfather of the He was prolific to the end. We had research, reading up on the latest claims of modern skeptical movement, he was an two columns from him during the pro- nonsense and crackpottery and buffoon- extraordinarily knowledgeable skeptic duction of our March/April 2010 issue. ery, and giving his unique critical perspec- with a uniquely whimsical and easily So we published the shorter one (about tive in clear, concise prose. But he was a amused mind who never took himself fatal sweat lodge guru James Arthur Ray) wonderful correspondent. Any letter to over-seriously, a great teacher through as his regular column and the longer one Martin drew an almost immediate type- example of what skepticism and skeptical (about Oprah Winfrey and her gullibility written response. That was true of my inquiry are all about, a clear writer and on pseudo-medical matters) as an article. experience, and I have heard the same thinker, a peerless critic of nonsense, and Perhaps surprising for such a towering from others. His letters were always a steadfast advocate of science and rea- intellect, Martin was a modest and unas- friendly, direct, relevant, useful, and con- son—in short, a national treasure. No; suming man. Kindly, I would say. Ob - cise. He never wasted words. I have quite make that a world treasure. viously highly intelligent and a supremely a collection of such short letters from Kendrick Frazier is editor of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, clear thinker, he showed no sign of ego. A Martin and will always treasure them. a fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry, somewhat shy person, he never attended Martin Gardner was—among many and a longtime member of its executive council.

Martin Gardner’s Presence [March/April 1998], “I just play all the time, and am fortunate enough to get JOE NICKELL paid for it.”) In 1952 he published the first edition of his seminal book, now known to skep- Martin Gardner gone? Skeptics, say it isn’t so! SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Martin thought - tics worldwide as Fads and Fallacies in the From my earliest days as a magician, fully wrote a personal note of apprecia- Name of Science. The book proved to be skeptic, and investigative writer, Martin tion. the seed that blossomed into the modern was there—a presence as reassuring as And he thought of this same writer in skeptical movement. Gardner mentored a that of a beloved relative whom one could 2002 when he ended his long-running small group of skeptical activists—includ- always count on when needed but who column for SI (since 1983), “Notes of a ing magician James Randi, psychologist showed up in person only at the occa- Fringe Watcher.” Asked who he thought Ray Hyman, and several others—a group sional family reunion. Extraordinarily shy, might succeed him as leading columnist that in 1976 philosopher Paul Kurtz Martin avoided public appearances and for the magazine, he wrote, “Joe Nickell?” expanded and turned into an interna- didn’t lecture, grant media interviews, or I did not meet Martin in person until tional organization known as the Com - even accept awards when they were con- 1989 when he uncharacteristically ap - mittee for the Scientific Inves tigation of ditional on his appearing. peared at a CSICOP Executive Council Claims of the Paranormal (presently the Still, he was there. When I was trans- meeting in Tampa, Florida. He did not Committee for Skeptical Inquiry). forming myself into “Mendell the Men tal - usually wear ties, but someone got him Now Martin Gardner belongs to his- ist” as a young magician, Martin helpfully one for a formal group photo, and I was tory, to the pantheon of great intellects of pecked out on his typewriter a suggestion: able to give it a straightening just in time. the twentieth century—many of whom a mind-reading effect based on a principle At the 1996 Gathering for Gardner in were his admirers. A one-man think tank usually embodied in a close-up trick that Atlanta, Georgia, I brought a tape re - and the father of modern skepticism, he he very cleverly adapted to the stage. corder on behalf of Prometheus Books was a presence indeed. But he remains a Once, while I was working as a and recorded Martin in his hotel room presence, still alive in our minds, often researcher on a certain project, Martin reading the introduction to the audiotape smiling amid the juggled words, still invited me to visit his home in Hen - version of Science: Good, Bad and Bogus. teaching us to think—and to not forget to dersonville, North Carolina, and use his Time spent with him was precious. have fun. extensive personal library. (This I de - But it was as a writer that his presence clined, of course, for it would have been was most clearly felt. Despite his personal Joe Nickell is CSI’s senior research fellow and SI’s too great an imposition on too generous a shyness, his writings were those of a polar “Investigative Files” columnist. He is author of friend.) opposite: a bold, courageous critic, a pro- dozens of books about his skeptical investiga- When I reviewed an event held in lific correspondent, and a towering think - tions, such as Real or Fake, Adven tures in honor of the shy genius (who had made er and polymath. (Never mind that he Paranormal Investigation, Relics of the Christ, an exceedingly rare appearance) for the once said in an interview in these pages Real-Life X-Files, and Looking for a Miracle.

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The Humble Demigod realize that Sheaffer had his tongue in his cheek.” ROBERT SHEAFFER Later Gardner asked me if I wanted him to mail me his UFO files, saying I was aware of Martin Gardner at least plained that he was not an expert in that I would make better use of them since I was in high school in Illinois dur- mathematical puzzles or even a big fan than he could. I gladly accepted his ing the 1960s. I hung around as much of them; he just kept writing them up offer. The files were not extensive, con- as I could with friends who were inter- because that was what the readers of sisting mostly of clippings from newspa- ested in science and philosophy, and in Scientific Amer ican wanted, and typi- pers and magazines of the 1950s and such circles Gardner was already consid- cally he was just one puzzle ahead of the ’60s, but they contained a number of ered a demigod, at the very least. I for- magazine’s deadline. We also discussed hard-to-find items. I gratefully merged get exactly when I first read his Fads and the famous Cottingley Fairy photos, them with my own files. Fallacies in the Name of Science, but I which had fooled Sir Arthur Conan After Gardner moved to North Caro - was enormously impressed by it. He lina, I never saw him in person again. covered so many subjects in such detail, But we remained in touch on a number using such impeccable logic. (From a of subjects. I remember one time when current standpoint, what’s sobering is I contacted him for information about a how many of these fads and fallacies, specific cult. He said that the most know - thoroughly debunked almost sixty years ledgeable critic of that group was a certain ago, are still peddled, usually in nearly the same form!) individual who I had never heard of. “But I first met Gardner at one of the very be careful in your dealings with him,” early CSICOP functions in New York Gardner said. “He is obsessed with this City in 1977 or ’78. He was still living in cult, and he has a history of unstable New York at the time (appropriately on behavior.” I cautiously followed up on his Euclid Avenue in Hastings-on-Hudson). lead and discovered that, as usual, Martin CSICOP held several press con ferences to had gotten it exactly right. offer itself as a resource for responsible sci- Looking back on his career, perhaps ence journalism, as well as to de nounce the most surprising thing is not only the the often-uncritical coverage of “paranor- quantity and the quality of his output but mal” subjects in the media. This was long the fact that all of it was written without before CSICOP sponsored any public benefit of a computer or word processor! events. I had been working fairly closely I cannot write anything worth publishing with the noted UFO skeptic, the late unless I revise it three or four times. He Philip J. Klass, one of the founding fel- had an amazingly clear writing style: lows of CSICOP, who helped me get everything Martin Gard ner wrote, no involved with the organization and its activities. Gardner attended all of the matter how technical, is explained so CSICOP events in New York City but well that the average reader can under- never spoke to the public or to the press. stand it, and every conclusion he reaches I remember being awestruck to have the follows directly from the information he Elliott Erwitt / Magnum Photos opportunity to meet, and get to know, just set forth. this soft-spoken, extraordinary man. Doyle, and how at that time UFOlogist Some of the late founding fellows of I was even more awestruck when he Jerome Clark, then an editor at Fate CSICOP, whose names today are house- suggested we go down to the hotel magazine, was claiming the photos as hold words, had egos the size of Texas, if restaurant to have lunch together. I real- proof of some sort of “alternate reality.” not Alaska. This stands in enormous ized even at that time that this was an Gardner wrote about that in the notes contrast with Martin Gardner, a man for extraordinary privilege. I asked him and also in a postscript to his essay “The whom they all genuinely proclaimed about his training in mathematics, Irrelevance of Conan Doyle,” published their admiration yet was nonetheless expecting to hear him rattle off a list of in Science: Good, Bad and Bogus. He also one of the most sincere and likable studies and degrees. “I didn’t take much wrote there about my own hoax article human beings I have ever met. math,” he re plied. “I studied philoso- suggesting that the Cottingley Fairies phy.” I expected to hear that mathemat- were Winged UFO Occupants: “It was Robert Sheaffer is a fellow of CSI and has been ical puzzles flowed effortlessly out of his printed in Official UFO magazine, SI’s “Psychic Vibra tions” columnist for more brain, but that was also not so. He ex - October 1977, by editors too stupid to than thirty years.

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Exposing Crackpots A Martin Gardner Sampler and Charlatans ROBERT CARROLL It is not at all amusing when people are misled by scientific claptrap. Martin Gardner’s writings on the paranor- Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science (Dover), p. 6 mal and pseudoscience profoundly influ- There is a type of self-styled scientist who can legitimately be called a crank. enced a generation of writers, in cluding It is not the novelty of his views or the neurotic motivation behind his work me, as can be seen by the many references that provide the grounds for calling him this. The grounds are the technical to his works in The Skeptic’s Dictionary. He criteria by which theories are evaluated. If a man persists in advancing views introduced us to a bizarre world populated that are contradicted by all available evidence, and which offer no reason- by the likes of L. Ron Hubbard, Rudolf able grounds for serious consideration, he will rightfully be dubbed a crank Steiner, Edgar Cayce, Bridey Murphy, and by colleagues. a host of other characters on the fringe. He taught us that crackpots and charlatans are Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science, p. 8 dangerous. They should not be ignored but instead thoroughly exposed for what The modern pseudoscientist . . . stands entirely outside the closely integrated they are by detailed critical analysis. channels through which new ideas are closely integrated and evaluated. He My introduction to Gardner was works in isolation. through his Scientific American column Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science, p. 11 on brain teasers and logic puzzles. When he gave up writing that brilliant and Even when a pseudoscientific theory is completely worthless there is a cer- much-missed column, Douglas Hofstad - tain educational value in refuting it. ter picked up the mantle. My obsession Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science, p. 321 with Gardner’s writings on the paranormal and pseudoscience began after reading a I’m not sure why I enjoy debunking. Part of it surely is amusement over the fol- Hofstadter column titled “World Views in lies of true believers, and [it is] partly because attacking bogus science is a Collision: The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER versus painless way to learn good science. You have to know something about relativity theory, for example, to know where opponents of Einstein go wrong. ... the National Inquirer.” Hofstadter’s pane- Another reason for debunking is that bad science contributes to the steady gyric to CSICOP and SI is one of the sem- dumbing down of our nation. Crude beliefs get transmitted to political leaders inal essays in the history of scientific skep- and the result is considerable damage to society. ticism. Every skeptic should keep it at the ready for inspiration and revitalization. “A Mind at Play,” interview in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, March/April 1998, p.36–37 (The essay, reprinted in Hof stadter’s Meta - Although “debunker” is often considered a pejorative term, I do not find it so. magical Themas: Quest ing for the Essence of A major purpose of SKEPTICAL INQUIRER has always been to debunk the most out- Mind and Pattern, in cludes an account of rageous claims of bogus science. I make no apologies for being a debunker. I Gardner’s split with Marcello Truzzi over believe it is the duty of both scientists and science writers to keep exposing how best to deal with Immanuel Veli - the errors of bad science. kovsky and other pseudoscientists.) Did Adam and Eve Have Navels? (W.W. Norton), p. 2 Hofstadter’s essay inspired many teach- ers to become followers of SI, which For every example of a crank who later became a hero there were thousands inevitably led us to become followers of of cranks who forever re mained cranks. Martin Gardner’s many inquiries. In fact, Science: Good, Bad and Bogus (Prometheus), p. xiii many of us became somewhat fanatical about our inquiries into what Gardner Cranks by definition believe their theories and charlatans do not, but this called “wild beliefs.” We can’t stop investi- does not prevent a person from being both a crank and a charlatan. gating and writing about them. Thanks to Science: Good, Bad and Bogus, p. xiv Martin Gardner, James Randi, and others of like spirit, we won’t be quiet until the In discussing extremes of unorthodoxy in science I consider it a waste of time last bit of bogus science is buried with the to give rational arguments. Those who are in agreement do not need to be educated about such trivial matters, and trying to enlighten those who dis- last charlatan claiming paranormal or agree is like trying to write on water. ... For these reasons, when writing super natural powers. about extreme eccentricities of science, I have adopted H.L. Mencken’s sage Robert Carroll is emeritus professor of philoso- advice: one horse-laugh is worth ten thousand syllogisms. phy at Sacramento City College and creator of Science: Good, Bad and Bogus, pp. xv, xvi The Skeptic’s Dictionary Web site. He is a CSI fellow.

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Visits to Martin BRYAN FARHA I cannot recall when or why I first became interested in pseudoscience. . . . Not It was serendipitous that Oklahoma City being a scientist, but only a science journalist, I have always been in trigued by University (where I teach) brought in fringe science, perhaps for the same reason that I enjoy freak shows at carni- James Randi to speak several years ago. vals and circuses. Pseudo scien tists, especially the extreme cranks, are fasci- While here, Randi asked me to take him nating creatures for psychological study. Moreover, I have found that one of the to visit his beloved friend, Martin, in best ways to learn something about any branch of science is to find out where its crackpots go wrong. nearby Norman, Oklahoma. Martin had been in an assisted living center there On the Wild Side (Prometheus), p. 7 since 2002. Randi introduced us, and this As all magicians know, physicists are among the easiest people in the world to began my personal connection to Martin. be fooled by magic tricks. They are so used to working with Mother Nature, Since that day, I periodically visited who never cheats, that when confronted with the task of testing a psychic Martin in his room. Two visits stand out. charlatan they have no comprehension of how to set up adequate controls. ... On one occasion the visit was profession- Am I saying that all psychic re searchers should be trained in magic, or seek ally motivated because an author asked the aid of magicians, before they test miracle workers? That is exactly what I me to interview Martin for his book. am saying. The most eminent scientist, untrained in magic, is putty in the hands About midway through, Martin turned of a clever charlatan. the tables and he became the interviewer. “Lessons of a Landmark PK Hoax,” Gardner’s first SKEPTICAL INQUIRER column, I was surprised at his sudden interest in Summer 1983, p. 18; reprinted as “Project Alpha” in The New Age me. What stood out most was his inquir- (Prometheus), 1991 paperback edition ing about my beliefs and view of reli- I like to think I am unduly harsh and dogmatic only when writing about a pseu- gion—just before I was going to ask him doscience that is far out on the continuum that runs from good science to bad, similar questions on the same subject. He and when I am expressing the views of all the experts in the relevant field. Where sensed my frustration in not knowing there are areas on the fringes of orthodoxy, supported by respected scientists, exactly how to “label” my beliefs. After I try to be more agnostic. giving him a lengthy explanation, he said, “A Mind at Play,” interview in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, March/April 1998, p. 37 “I know how to label your beliefs.” He continued, “You’re a philosophical theist, Finding 666 in the names of famous people is a number-twiddling pastime that like me.” It was great to finally be able to has obsessed numerologists ever since the Book of Revelation was written. With patience and ingenuity it is not difficult to extract 666 from almost any concretize my position. Until that time, I person’s name. For example, using Blevins’s Bible code, I discovered that sun, really didn’t know what to call it. When moon, and Pat J. Buchanan each adds to 666. The same code yields 666 if you my interview of Martin concluded, I apply it to Hal Lindsey B, the B standing, of course, for Beast. went home and immediately Googled the term. The first thing I found was “The Second Coming of Jesus,” “Notes of a Fringe Watcher” a Wikipedia definition. The end of the column, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, January/February 2000, p. 11 entry now states, “Martin Gardner The steady expansion of scientific knowledge is one of the few aspects of (1914–2010) was a contemporary def - human history—perhaps the only aspect—about which we can say dogmatically ender of philosophical theism.” It was that genuine progress takes place. Moreover, the progress itself progresses. obvious Martin knew what he was talk- The expansion occurs with steadily increasing rapidity. ing about. The Ambidextrous Universe (Scribner), preface to the Second Edition The other visit that stood out was per- I continue to be amazed that any professional mathematician would suppose that sonally motivated; I took my nine-year- mathematics has no reality apart from human cultures. I am even more old nephew, Cole, to meet this extraordi- astounded that there actually are physicists who think the moon would not be nary man. Martin amazed Cole with “out there” if no one (not even a mouse? Einstein liked to ask) observed it. visual illusions, which were displayed throughout his room. Particularly eye- The Jinn from Hyperspace (Prometheus), introduction to Ch. 9, “A Defense of Platonic Realism,” p. 93 catching to Cole was the “Paper Dragon” illusion—designed for a special gathering If God or the gods, or the Old One (as Einstein liked to call Everything), had a honoring Martin. He had a very effective transcendent reason for bringing us into existence, what does it matter way of using entertainment as an educa- whether the first man and woman were formed in one day from the dust of the tional tool. It certainly worked for Cole. Although Cole may not have had a full continued appreciation for the magnitude of

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John Allen Paulos is professor of mathematics at Temple University and author of such books ground, as Genesis has it, or evolved over billions of years from the dust of a as Innumeracy, A Mathe matician Reads the primeval fireball? The fact that we are here proves that we derive, in some Newspaper, and Once Upon a Number. He is a crazy sense, from the fireball, and I for one find this more miraculous than the CSI fellow. Genesis story. A review of Steven Weinberg’s book, The First Three Minutes, re printed in Order and Surprise (Prometheus), p. 319 Characterizing the For as long as I can remember I have been impressed, perhaps overwhelmed Hermit Scientist is more accurate, by the vastness of the universe and the even greater vastness of the darkness that extends beyond the farthest frontiers of scientific SCOTT O. LILIENFELD knowledge. I had been deeply interested in scientific The Night Is Large: Collected Essays 1938—1995 (St. Martin’s Press), p. xvii skepticism for a solid fifteen years before I We are all little children walking down a road of yellow brick in a crazy, out- read Martin Gardner’s classic book Fads landish, Ozzy sort of world. We know that wisdom, love, and courage are essen- and Fallacies in the Name of Science, first tial virtues, but like Dorothy we cannot decide whether it is best to seek for published as In the Name of Science in better brains (our electronic computers grow more powerful every year!) or 1952. In fact, for quite some time I had for kinder, more loving hearts. resisted reading it. No book that old, I Introduction to the 1960 Dover edition of The Wonderful Wizard of Oz assumed, could possibly offer much to us by L. Frank Baum today. Moreover, I thought, Gardner’s examples must surely be outdated.

Martin Gardner quotes compiled by Kendrick Frazier Nothing, I soon discovered, could be further from the truth. Indeed, on finally reading Fads and Fallacies, I was amazed by how fresh and relevant it is to modern skepticism—and to the psychology of Martin’s brilliance, one day he will. I remember reading his books on rec - pseudoscience. As all dedicated skeptics As close as my proximity to Martin reational math as an undergraduate and know, in this book Gardner delineated was, I’m sorry I didn’t visit him more being eager to explain the puzzles in them the core characteristics of the “hermit sci- often—my loss. I’ve had many favorite to whoever would listen. In a couple of entist,” whom we might regard as the pro- issues of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER over the cases I even used them to win small bets. totypical pseudoscientist. For Gardner, years. I suspect this issue will climb to the Over the years we exchanged a couple of the hermit scientist (1) “considers himself top of my list. book blurbs, a benign log(arithm)-rolling as a genius,” (2) “regards his colleagues, without ex ception, as ignorant block- Bryan Farha is a professor at Oklahoma City that was a signal honor for me, and we heads,” (3) “be lieves himself unjustly per- University, where he coordinates the graduate also corresponded a bit about his novel secuted and discriminated against,” (4) program in applied behavioral studies, and is edi- The Art of Peter Fromm and other topics, “has strong compulsions to focus his tor of Paranormal Claims: A Critical Analysis. jokes in particular. Once he sent me a letter with some quite funny, quite non-G- attacks on the greatest scientists and the rated examples. Later, in the Scientific best established theories,” and (5) “has a Amer ican, he published a very elegant tendency to write in complex jargon, in The Connoisseur many cases making use of terms and illustration of a religious hoax I proposed phrases he himself has coined.” of Paradox based on Kruskal’s theorem. These psychological attributes ring as His interests ranged from Lewis Car - true today as they did nearly sixty years JOHN ALLEN PAULOS roll and the philosophy of mathematics to ago. Although some of the lyrics of the A connoisseur of paradox, Martin Gard - scientific hoaxes and popular culture. song may have changed (Hollow Earth - ner had a fittingly paradoxical career. Even in his last essay for the SKEPTICAL ers, orgone theorists, and Lyksenkoists are Although he majored in philosophy and INQUIRER (March/April 2010) published no longer central foci of skeptical took no mathematics courses after high in his lifetime, he took on Oprah inquiry), the music hasn’t. In contempo- school, he probably did more to stimulate Winfrey’s pseudo-cures. A modest man, a rary psychological lingo, we might say an appreciation for, curiosity about, and clear-eyed skeptic, and an expositor extra- that Gard ner hit upon many of the fea- discussion of mathematical ideas than ordinaire, he was a cogent beacon of san- tures of pseudoscientists that predispose scores of us mathematics professors. ity to the end. them to confirmation bias: the tendency

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to seek out evidence consistent with one’s the first publication of his that I ever read, hypotheses and to deny, dismiss, or dis- I simply cannot remember which one it tort evidence that isn’t. When one reads was. Memory is a funny thing, as Martin “Martin Gardner is one of the great Gardner’s twenty-five remarkable case Gardner well knew, and it feels to me as if intellects produced in this country in studies of thinking gone haywire, it is not his books have been in my life for as long this century.” difficult to discern a common thread run- as I can remember, like those really good ning through their enormous surface friends that we all take for granted. —Douglas Hofstadter, author of diversity: the persistent refusal of propo- By a process of deduction, I can work Gödel, Escher, Bach, on the nents of pseudoscience to allow contrary out that I must have read his collections of cover of Gardner’s The Night evidence to penetrate their web of beliefs. recreational mathematics columns from Is Large (1996) More than anything else, Gardner’s first Scientific American, published under such book is a powerful cautionary tale of the titles as Mathematical Circus, many years “For more than half a century, Martin Gardner has been the single brightest perils of intellectual hubris. before I read his skeptical classic Fads and beacon defending rationality and good I regard Fads and Fallacies as the most Fallacies in the Name of Science. The for- science against the mysticism and significant work in the history of scientific mer books entertained and educated me. anti-intellectualism that sur round us.” skepticism, as its message remains every They made math fun—at least for a self- bit as pertinent to the vexing problem of professed nerd like me! —The late Stephen Jay Gould, pseudoscience today as it was in the 1950s. But Fads and Fallacies had a much Harvard University, on the Gardner’s passing gives all of us an oppor- more profound impact on me than those back cover of Gardner’s The tunity not only to mourn the loss of one of stimulating collections of brainteasers. It Night Is Large (1996) the founders of the modern skeptical was one of the first books on skepticism movement but to revisit the wisdom and that I read, along with James Randi’s insights he imparted so many years ago. Flim-Flam! and The Truth About Uri Geller and David Marks and Richard and the delightful Annotated Alice Scott O. Lilienfeld is professor of psychology at Kammann’s The Psychology of the Psychic. books), I felt that I did know Martin Emory University, editor in chief of The The truth is, dear reader, that until well Gardner even though I never actually Scientific Review of Mental Health Practice, into early adulthood I was . . . well, I met him. I would like to have met him. and lead author of 50 Great Myths of Popular guess I have to come clean . . . a believer I am sure I would have liked him. Like Psy chology. He is a CSI fellow and SI consult- in the paranormal! The book that actually thousands of other fans around the ing editor. opened my eyes to the wonderful world globe, I will miss him. of skepticism was James Alcock’s Para - psychology: Science or Magic?, but I quickly Christopher C. French is head of the Ano - The Friend followed that excellent volume with the malistic Psychology Research Unit at Golds - skeptical works of Gardner, Randi, miths College, University of London, and editor I Never Met Marks, and Kammann. in chief of The Skeptic (U.K.). He is co-editor of CHRISTOPHER C. FRENCH One thing is notable about all five of the new book Why Statues Weep: The Best of these books: they have all withstood the The Skeptic. I never had the pleasure of meeting test of time wonderfully. Indeed, all five Martin Gardner, but I feel as if I have are still on reading lists for the course on known him as a friend for decades. Over anomalistic psychology that I teach as Last of the a long and prolific career, he published part of the BSc Psychology program at over seventy books and countless newspa- Goldsmiths College, University of Polymaths per and magazine articles. These include London (along with lots of more recent NEIL DEGRASSE TYSON his regular column for the SKEPTICAL IN- texts, of course!). But it should be borne QUIRER, “Notes of a Fringe Watcher,” in mind that all of those classics but one With a career spanning most of a century, which ran for almost twenty years and his were written in the early 1980s. Fads and Martin Gardner was the last of the poly- “Mathematical Games” column, which Fallacies is now well over half a century maths. Nearly everyone in the skeptic ran in Scientific Amer ican for some twenty- old and is still well worth reading. It is, community, across multiple generations, five years. of course, somewhat depressing that was directly influenced by his writings. As I cannot claim to have read everything most of the fads so devastatingly cri- a kid, reading his monthly columns for that this great man ever wrote, of course, tiqued in this wonderful volume are still Scientific American, I naively believed that but I may well have more books on my going strong today. the simultaneous breadth and depth of bookshelves written by him than by any Through these works and others Gardner’s interests was common. Now I other author. When I try to think back to (notably, Science: Good, Bad and Bogus am certain it was unique.

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Neil deGrasse Tyson, an astrophysicist, is direc- A Blowtorch Martin Bridgstock is a senior lecturer at the tor of the Hayden Planetarium at the American School of Biomolecular and Physical Sciences at Museum of Natural History and a CSI fellow. Turned on Jell-O Griffith University, Queens land, Au stralia, and author of the new book Beyond Belief: His most recent book is The Pluto Files. MARTIN BRIDGSTOCK Skepticism, Science and the Para normal. He is a Martin Gardner burst into my awareness CSI scientific consultant. The Roots in the 1960s. I remember myself as a trou- bled boy in my early teens, mooching of Skepticism through the weekly market in Grimsby, a Goodbye, Master U.K. fishing port. I picked up a copy of JAY M. PASACHOFF Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science of Journalists I have often cited two books as formative for five British shillings—about 40 U.S. LUIS ALFONSO GÁMEZ of my career: Martin Gardner’s Fads and cents in today’s money—and read it. Fallacies in the Name of Science (I can pic- Then I read it again, and again. Here was Martin Gardner was the master for those of us who believe that teaching science ture the cover of the Dover edition, which a grown-up with massive intellectual should include denouncing bunk. “I have came out in 1957 while I was at the powers focusing critically upon paranor- found that one of the best ways to learn Bronx High School of Science) and C.P. mal claims. It was a bit like watching a blowtorch being turned on Jell-O. I was something about any branch of science is Snow’s Two Cultures and the Scien tific shocked, amused, and delighted. Why to find out where its crackpots go wrong,” Revolution (which I bought when it first wasn’t anyone else doing this? he wrote in On the Wild Side (1992). came out in 1959, at a bookstore in San Gardner taught me a lot. First, that all Exactly so. In a world in which so many Francisco while attending a summer math humans, without exception, can be feel attracted to the paranormal, this research program at Berkeley—just prior wrong. And since all books, papers, and maxim should guide the work of journal- to my starting Har vard as a freshman). In paranormal theories are produced by ists who inform the public about science. the fifty-plus years since, I have tried to humans, they can be wrong too. There is Too often we have irresponsibly avoided conduct my science, my life, and my no way out, except to check the evidence criticizing pseudoscience, considering it career with the ideals of both of those and think for yourself. Second, he taught undignified. authors in mind: eschewing fads, fallacies, me the importance of clarity in writing We should take advantage of flying and pseudoscience of all kinds and trying through his ability to skewer pseudoscien- saucers, Atlantis, extrasensory perception, to be educated in both science and the tists with a few words of description or and creationism to hook the public and humanities. criticism. I am no Gardner, but these teach them to appreciate biology, psychol- A few years ago, I started teaching a messages sank into my bones. ogy, geology, history—science and knowl- seminar at Williams College on “Science Years later, I discovered Gardner’s edge in general. We should use pseudo- and Pseudoscience” to about a dozen mathematical column in Scientific Amer - science as the hook to teach science and juniors and seniors. I started out with C.P. ican. My math was barely good enough to critical thought. Martin Gard ner did it Snow’s book and ideas as a frame to the follow the arguments, but Gardner’s for decades with the clarity of someone seminar and then had one of the twelve delight in human inventiveness shone who considered himself “basically a jour- weekly sessions devoted to Martin Gard - clearly through every paragraph. He loved nalist.” His books are always at hand ner’s work, with a reading list (and library producing dizzying paradoxes from sim- to consult to remember what he said about so many of the absurdities that sur- reserve) that included all of his relevant ple assumptions and throwing light on round us. books. The course has been quite popular, whole new fields of mathematical Today the world is a little darker; rea- straining the limit of twenty that I subse- thought. It was the other side of his criti- son’s flame dims in the darkness because quently adopted, with students begging cisms of pseudoscience: use your mind, we are without Martin Gardner. We will to be admitted. The discussions have been and wonders will follow. Obfuscate, and miss him. I will continue to have him lively and interesting. I look forward to there is disaster ahead. In a very real sense, Martin Gardner with me daily, as I have since I read him next spring’s version. for the first time, as an example of what a So I am back to my roots in Martin cannot die. Like David Hume, he is a living thinker whose ideas will remain rele- scientific journalist must be. Luckily, we Gardner’s important plea for rationality, have his books to guide us. and I am very grateful to him for his ideas. vant as long as human foolishness persists. Among much else, he was one of the Luis Alfonso Gámez is a journalist, scientific Jay M. Pasachoff is the Field Memorial Pro - founders of the modern skeptical move- consultant for CSI, and author of Magonia fessor of Astronomy at Williams Col lege, Wil - ment, and his truth really will go march- (http://magonia.es), the most important Span - liamstown, Massachusetts, and a CSI fellow. ing on! ish-language skeptical blog. He is a CSI fellow.

40 Volume 34, Issue 5 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER SI Sept/Oct pgs_SI MJ 2010 7/22/10 4:42 PM Page 41

A Tribute and Celebration

What Martin Some of Gardner’s Taught Me Notable Books BENJAMIN RADFORD ... About Pseudoscience Although I met Martin only once in per- and Fringe Science son, I worked with him as his editor for In the Name of Science (1952), repub- his SKEPTICAL INQUIRER column for lished as Fads and Fallacies in the about eight years. When I first started Name of Science (1957) with the magazine, I knew who he was by Science: Good, Bad and Bogus (1981, reputation, but I don’t think it was until 1983, 1989) later, as I was reintroduced to his columns How Not to Test a Psychic and earlier work, that I really gained a true The New Age: Notes of a Fringe appreciation for his genius. Watcher* (1998, 1991) I remember getting a column from On the Wild Side* (1992) Martin for the first time. To be honest, I Weird Water and Fuzzy Logic* (1996) don’t remember what the topic was, but I Did Adam and Eve Have Navels?* (2000) do remember being slightly annoyed. You The Jinn from Hyperspace* (2008) When You Were a Tadpole and I Was a see, it was typewritten and photocopied Fish* (2009) (with a few handwritten editorial correc- *In part, collections of his SI columns, tions). I was used to e-mailed attachments you fax it to me?” While I was willing and able to help, it and columns submitted on CDs and ... About Science floppy discs—what was this typewritten seemed like a bit of a steep request to stop stuff? As the years went on I came to trea- what I was doing, look through two Relativity for the Million The Ambidextrous Universe sure and look forward to seeing his three- dozen back issues, find the article, and fax The New Ambidextrous Universe page, double-spaced columns in the dark it to the man, long distance, at our ex - Great Essays in Science (ed.) black, old-school typewriter font. It re - pense! Besides, I was skeptical that the payphone would be able to receive the minded me of good, old-fashioned skep- ... On Other Topics ticism. It reminded me of notes and let- fax. And what was the urgency anyway? Mathematics, Magic, and Mystery ters my grandfather—a veteran journalist The man put another quarter in the The Scientific American Book of and skeptic himself—would write to me phone and explained that he feared that his younger brother was becoming in - Mathematical Puzzles and Diversions when I was a teenager. The Annotated Alice volved in a cult. He was driving out to see One thing I learned from Martin, The Annotated Ancient Mariner albeit indirectly, was how skeptical his brother and was desperately trying to Aha! Insight research and investigation can make a real think of ways to reason with him. He The Sixth Book of Mathematical Games difference in people’s lives. It’s all well and remembered that Martin had written a from Scientific American good to write skeptically about UFOs or column on the cult years before and Mathematical Carnival ghosts in the abstract, but it’s a different hoped the information would provide Aha! Gotcha matter when you’re dealing with real peo- skeptical facts and criticisms. He was call- Order and Surprise ple and real problems. ing from outside a copy shop with the The Whys of a Philosophical Scrivener One day in 2000 I got a call at the shop’s fax number handy so he could The Magic Numbers of Dr. Matrix office from a man at a payphone some- receive the fax there and go see his brother Knotted Doughnuts and Other where in Arizona. The man had a soft armed with more than just concerns. I Mathematical Entertainments (short stories) voice—he sounded like he was in his early hung up the phone, sifted through the The No-Sided Professor The Wreck of the Titanic Foretold? (ed.) fifties—and wanted some information on back issues on my shelf, copied the rele- Time Travel and Other Mathematical vant pages, and faxed them off. I never an article he had read a long time ago in Bewilderments the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER but didn’t have heard back from the man; I hope he was Gardner’s Whys and Wherefores an issue date or year. “It’s an article by able to reason with his brother using Penrose Tiles to Trapdoor Ciphers Martin Gardner,” he said. “It’s on a cult.” Martin’s work, and I liked the idea that The Healing Revelations of Mary Baker I told him that I’d try to locate the article Martin’s keen mind and research might Eddy and issue and forward his call to the front help save a man’s life. Urantia: The Great Cult Mystery desk where he could purchase the issue, if I shared this story with Martin last The Universe in a Handkerchief he wished. year as I was preparing my latest book, to “No, no,” he said. “I need it now. Can which Martin kindly contributed, and he

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER September / October 2010 41 SI Sept/Oct pgs_SI MJ 2010 7/22/10 4:42 PM Page 42

MARTIN GARDNER

was very pleased indeed. Martin kept need to go in order to help select the Statistically, he stated, the fact that this working and writing and corresponding materials and then help box them up, was all coincidental fell within the realm to the very end of his life. I don’t believe something not uncommon for some of of possibility. He went on to tell me that in an afterlife, but Martin may have; if our acquisitions. I again tried to defer; I there is “something” that makes us all he’s there, he’s certainly earned his rest. had things that needed to get done, and want to believe in something greater than couldn’t this wait until the fall? Barry told ourselves and that those who believe in Benjamin Radford is a research fellow of the me that Martin Gardner had decided to ESP and related phenomena use Futility Committee for Skeptical Inquiry, managing edi- give us some of his papers and a collection and the other works mentioned in his tor of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, and author of the of books, all related to our mission at the book as examples of these phenomena. new book Scientific Paranormal Investigation. Center. I asked him when I could hit the He then pointed out the idea of selective road. memory, where one remembers only the Martin Gardner, “father of the mod- hits, not the thousands of misses, which is My Reminiscence ern skeptical movement,” had asked us to why some people believe in psychics; they of Martin Gardner: select materials from his collection, box forget all the misses and remember only them up, bring them back to our Amherst the things guessed correctly. In the case of A Lesson offices, and maintain his collection on all the Titanic, there were thousands of sto- matters of the paranormal, fringe claims, TIMOTHY BINGA ries at the time about ships traveling the pseudoscience, etc. His book Fads and Atlantic that did not hit an iceberg (but Back in 2002, I was asked by Barry Karr, Fallacies in the Name of Science kicked off might have had a Captain Smith). the executive director of CSICOP, if I this movement. He was a founding fellow I asked him why the Titanic was so would be able to leave right away on a trip of CSICOP, a writer for Prometheus popular for those trying to prove the exis- to acquire some materials for the Center Books, and a fellow Titanic aficionado tence of psychic phenomena. He coun- for Inquiry Libraries. It was during our (Wreck of the Titanic Foretold?, edited and tered by asking me why I thought the annual Summer Institute, and I was sup- with an introduction by Gardner, and Titanic struck such a chord with our cul- posed to be teaching our students how several short stories and other hard-to- ture. Because I had studied this myself, I libraries organize materials that are associ- find Titanic- and ESP-related materials told him that it was because it marked the ated with our various organizations. I did- were included in the collection). I was end of an age: the disaster hit all the vari- n’t think I should go; couldn’t we just have ready to go right there and then. ous levels of society at one time (the the items shipped? Barry told me I would We made plans, and I picked up boxes microcosm of society on the boat), and so and headed out to Hender son ville, North many half-truths and myths surrounded Carolina, in my wife’s van the next morn- the Titanic. Everyone could find some- The Martin ing. I drove all day, staying in a hotel close thing they could relate to and would find to his home. I called him early the next of interest. He looked at me and said that Gardner Collection day and headed over to his house. I had answered my own question. He greeted me at the door, took me When I finished packing up the books The Center for Inquiry Libraries at into his library, and pointed out what and loading the van with the cabinets and CFI’s headquarters in Amherst, New items he wanted me to take. We then boxes, I went back in to say goodbye. It York, have approximately twelve lin- began to select the various items from his was with more than a hint of sadness that ear feet of papers donated by Martin collection. he thanked me for taking his materials. It Gardner. The papers are arranged as I was a little put off at first; I had met was then that I realized that this was a created by Gardner himself: three him once before in Amherst, but he small part of himself being packed up; he drawers of materials are organized seemed distracted to me, distant, not was “downsizing” in preparation for a alphabetically by name; the remain- wholly there while we went through the move (to be near his son in Okla homa, I ing drawers are organized by topic, books. We continued going through the found out later). I then thanked him for including all the various fields of skep- shelves, placing the materials to one side his donation, telling him that I would ticism, the paranormal, religious criti- so I could box them up later. He pointed take very good care of his books and files. cism, etc. Approximately 450 books to a couple of filing cabinets, telling me I He said, “I know you will.” I headed back are similarly categorized. No books or should take those too. to Buffalo feeling very fortunate to be able papers concerning Gard ner’s mathe- I finally got up the courage to ask him to have shared a little time with him. matical interests or his Scientific about the Titanic, letting him know I also (See sidebar, “The Martin Gardner American columns are located at the had an interest. He told me the same Collection.”) Center, unless they relate to the above things I had gleaned from his book: the topics. coincidences were not evidence of ESP or Timothy Binga is director of the Center for precognition but a product of the times. Inquiry Libraries in Amherst, New York.

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A Skeptic’s View of Prevention and Treatment of Heart Disease and Stroke

Notwithstanding the great progress made against heart disease and stroke, there is substantial underuse of effective medical therapy and tremendous overuse of coronary angiography, stenting, and coronary artery bypass surgery. REYNOLD SPECTOR

ince 1950, death rates from heart disease and stroke (adjusted for age and size of the population) have Sdecreased by 64 and 74 percent, respectively—an impressive result. Still, in 2006 heart disease killed 632,000 Americans (26 percent of all deaths) and stroke killed 137,000 (6 percent of all deaths). The prevalence of chronic heart disease, stroke, and other related conditions in the U.S. adult population in 2006 are shown in table 1 (American Heart Association 2010). Prevalence indicates the number of people living with the disease. For comparison purposes, cancer killed 560,000 Americans (23 percent of all deaths) in 2006. It is worth noting that 50 percent of the American population over age forty will develop cardiovascular or cerebrovasculardisease—

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diseases in whichblood flow through essential arteries is blocked From these considerations, I will explain the scientific hypothe- (American Heart Association 2010). ses about what is wrong and why, and the implications for ther- Since 1950, three general approaches to the prevention and apy. Finally, I will describe how the clinically operational treat ment of cardiovascular disease (coronary artery disease [CAD]) hypotheses differ from the scientific hypotheses and the real and cerebrovascular disease have evolved: world consequences of these differences. To make these analyses 1. Medical therapy with drugs, weight loss, diet, exercise, and valid, I will use only the highest quality evidence from “gold stan- smoking cessation dard” clinical science (e.g., controlled randomized trials). 2. Interventional cardiology or neurology with angiography Moreover, I will judge results on the basis of the effects on (insertion of catheters into the coronary or carotid arteries and patients in terms of heart attacks, strokes, and death—the so- injection of radio-opaque dye to see postulated narrowings called “hard endpoints.”1 [lesions] with X-rays); angioplasty (opening of narrowed or plaque-filled arteries with intravascular balloons); and stenting Table 1 (placing a small mesh-work tube to keep the artery open)—often U.S. Cardiovascular and Stroke Summary Statistics—2006 termed percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to treat CAD or percutaneous carotid intervention to treat cerebrovascular disease Disease or Problem Prevalence (%)* 3. Surgery with either coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), † which “jumps” over narrowed (stenotic) CAD lesions; or carotid Coronary heart disease 17.6 (7.9) endarterectomy (CEA), which removes the obstructing athero- High blood pressure 74.5 (33.6) sclerotic plaque inside the carotid artery Stroke 6.4 (2.9) However, in recent years, critics of interventional cardiology Heart failure 5.8 (2.6) ‡ and neurology, and coronary and carotid surgery—especially Myocardial infarction 8.5 (3.6) § PCI and CABG—have emerged (Diamond and Kaul 2008). (In Angina pectoris 10.2 (4.6) this article I will lump together the various types of PCI with Smoking 48.0 (20.6) stenting. I will do the same with CABG, which is now some- *In millions and percent of population over age twenty, times performed without opening the chest.) The critics claim except smoking, for which the prevalence is in millions and percent of population over age eighteen. that underuse of effective medical therapy and overuse of these invasive procedures cost tens of billions of dollars in the U.S. per †The number of patients having survived a heart attack year. In fact, many patients are harmed by unnecessary use of and/or with angina pectoris. ‡ these procedures, as discussed below. It is worth noting that there Myocardial infarction (MI) = heart attack with heart muscle damage. In common language, MI is equated are approximately 3, 2, and 1 percent procedure-related mortal- with heart attack. ity rates associated with CEA, CABG, and PCI, respectively §Pain in chest due to coronary artery disease. (American Heart Association 2010). In this article I will review the current approach to—and the results of the prevention and treatment of—CAD and vascular Heart Anatomy, Physiology, and Pathophysiology stroke. Before beginning, however, I must define terms, briefly The heart and brain require constant blood flow to survive. The describe the anatomy and physiology of the heart and brain cir- left ventricle of the heart pumps blood into the major systemic culations, and then summarize what goes wrong in the coronary artery, the aorta, to nourish the body. At the base of the aorta, and cerebrovascular circulations in disease (pathophysiology). right and left coronary arteries supply the right and left halves of the heart. These coronary arteries then branch into smaller con- Reynold Spector, MD, has served as a professor of medi- duits to supply the entire heart. The blood is driven through the cine (and pharmacology and/or biochemistry) at the coronary arteries’ lumen by higher pressure in the aorta down a University of Iowa, Stanford, and Harvard-MIT. Dr. Spector pressure gradient. In a normal individual, if these arteries are is currently a clinical professor of medicine at Robert Wood acutely blocked (e.g., by a clot), the heart tissue downstream (dis- Johnson Medical School (New Jersey) and is the author of tal) will die due to lack of oxygen and nutrients (i.e., a heart almost two hundred peer-reviewed scientific papers and one textbook. His attack occurs). However, in patients with chronic CAD and award-winning work has principally concerned drug and vitamin function, patchy atherosclerotic narrowing of the artery, a process known transport and homeostasis in the central nervous system, the effect of food as collateralization often occurs (see figure 1). Basically, small on the function of the kidney, and the treatment of the poisoned patient. He arteries (branches off the main coronary artery) before a narrow- also served at Merck from 1987 to 1999, retiring as executive vice president ing (stenosis) join up with small arteries after the stenosis and in charge of drug development. There he oversaw the introduction of fifteen carry blood into the post-stenotic artery. (Alternatively, branches new drugs and vaccines, several of which are useful in the prevention and from other coronary arteries may also supply the distal region.) treatment of heart disease and stroke. He previously wrote “Science and This amazing phenomenon explains why some patients may Pseudoscience in Adult Nutrition Research and Practice” in our May/June have a totally closed-off (occluded) artery and yet suffer no ill 2009 issue, “The War on Cancer: A Progress Report for Skeptics” in our effects—because the collateral vessels supply the distal heart mus- January/February 2010 issue, and “A Skeptic’s View of Pharmaceutical cle. In one sense, such a “patient” is functionally normal—his Progress” in our July/August 2010 issue. heart is perfectly well supplied with blood. Higher up on the

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aorta, two carotid arteries (in the front of the neck) and two ver- tem (which causes the orderly beating of the heart) and the heart tebral arteries (in the back of the neck) branch off on each side muscle are sensitive to interrupted blood flow. to supply the right and left half of the brain. Pathologically, atherosclerosis is an often patchy thickening In coronary artery and cerebral artery disease, four atheroscle- and hardening of the arterial wall, as depicted in figure 1. Under rotic processes can occur (see figure 1): diffuse narrowing of the the microscope, atheroscerosis is the unnatural buildup of fats, lumen due to disease-induced thickening of the artery wall (B), fibrous tissue, and inflammatory cells in the vessel wall. focal narrowing (stenosis) (C), rough plaques (E) on which clots Gradually the tissue “hardens” due to calcium inflow. There can occur (with sudden interruption of blood flow and a heart appear to be many causes of atherosclerosis (see table 2). How - attack or stroke), and collateralization (D) if the atherosclerotic ever, this is just a hypothesis at present, and the details of the process is slow. The collateral shown in figure 1 is larger than causal mechanisms in an individual patient remain controversial. most collaterals in living patients. Table 2 A NORMAL A Putative Causes of Atherosclerosis LUMEN B 1. Excess weight 6. Smoking 2. Diet 7. Inflammation DISEASED B 3. Blood pressure 8. Aging LUMEN BLOOD FLOW 4. Genetics 9. Intravascular ATHEROSCLEROTIC 5. Cholesterol clotting (platelets) THICKENING C Three Surprising Clinical Facts STENOSIS C Approximately twenty-five years ago, an Iowa cardiology group showed that the degree of stenosis as measured by angiography ARTERY WALL (injecting a radio-opaque dye into a diseased coronary artery and E D watching the dye traverse the arterial lumen in real time with an COLLATERAL ROUGH PLAQUE E X-ray machine) did not correlate with maximal blood flow to the heart distal to (downstream from) the stenosis (White et al. 1984). In other words, some severely stenotic lesions had normal blood flow on the distal side of the stenotic lesion under conditions requiring high flow, a surprising result. The authors said, “The BLOOD FLOW results of these studies should be profoundly disturbing to all physicians who have relied on the coronary angiogram to provide accurate information regarding the consequences of individual Figure 1. A longitudinal schematic section of a severely diseased coronary artery. (A) shows the normal luminal (interior) diameter; (B) shows the coronary stenoses.” Which is to say, these data should have under - narrowed luminal diameter due to diffuse coronary artery disease (ather- cut the reliance on the coronary angiogram and degree of steno- osclerosis); (C) shows a severe stenosis; (D) shows a large collateral vessel with blood flow bypassing the stenosis; and (E) shows a rough plaque on sis as bases for PCI or surgery, but they did not until very recently which a clot can form. Similar findings occur in the cerebral circulation. (see below). Second, in past studies of the natural history of angina pec- I will now focus on the consequences of obstructive lesions toris, before current medical, PCI, and CABG therapy, several due to atherosclerosis in the heart: In some cases there may be no investigators found that the angina spontaneously resolved in 20 or minimal clinical symptoms if there is adequate collateraliza- to 30 percent of angina patients, presumably due (in many cases) tion; angina pectoris (cardiac pain in the chest) if there is a severe to collateralization (see figure 1) (Fry 1976). This fact must be stenotic lesion that manifests its presence during exercise when kept in mind when evaluating clinical studies using angina as an the heart muscle requires more blood (the attendant process is endpoint. called myocardial ischemia [lack of blood]); or a heart attack when Third, surgery and invasive procedures have a large placebo a clot suddenly forms on a plaque and the distal heart muscle tis- effect on subjective endpoints like angina pectoris (Preston 1977; sue dies. Most heart attacks occur due to plaques that rupture or Beecher 1961). This result was shown in studies in which “sham” are very rough, forming a sticky nidus for clot formation and a procedures were performed on coronary patients—now consid- subsequent cardiac catastrophe (see figure 1). Heart attacks occur ered unethical experiments. But the results were clear—these less often due to tight stenotic lesions. (Similar processes occur in sham procedures eliminated 40 to 70 percent of anginal the cerebral circulation; however, only 20 percent of strokes are episodes. Thus, angina is not a “hard endpoint” for clinical trials due to disease in the carotid arteries and are therefore accessible of invasive cardiac procedures because the perception of angina is to surgical or percutaneous interventions.) In the heart, ineffec- subject to psychological and other subjective factors (Preston tive cardiac pacing or heart stoppage and sudden cardiac death is 1977). One needs to look at death, heart attacks, strokes, and associated with these atherosclerotic processes, especially if there other hard endpoints (as discussed below) to be certain of clini- is an acute closure of a coronary artery. The heart’s electrical sys- cal benefit.

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pressure, smoking, and cholesterol) (Dawber 1980). Others have Table 3 added body weight, renal function, and the resting electrocar- Risk-Factor Modification diogram (EKG). These simple measurements (the Framingham risk score) predict subsequent cardiovascular events and stroke. 1. Normal weight 2. Balanced diet Other more aggressive methods to assess risk in patients with- 3. Blood pressure control with diet and drugs out symptoms (like screening with exercise testing using EKG 4. Cholesterol control with diet and statins changes, cardiac isotope heart distribution studies after exercise 5. Smoking cessation or taking drugs, cardiac calcification and/or coronary angiogra- 6. Exercise phy) add relatively little to the simple and easily obtained 7. In diabetic patients, reasonable blood sugar control Framingham risk score (Scott 2009). Moreover, because of the many false positives and false negatives, these types of tests may do as much harm as good. For example, cardiac angiography has a 0.1 percent in-hospital death rate, 1.3 percent major complica- Table 4 tion rate, and mean hospital charges of $31,000 (American Secondary Prevention in Cardiovascular and Heart Association 2010). In other words, no one has ever shown Cerebrovascular Patients that if you do these tests in asymptomatic patients, the patients 1. Risk-factor modification as in table 3—all patients are better off in terms of hard endpoints than if you just treat the 2. Drug therapy—most patients* Framingham risk factors vigorously. Moreover, a recent review of a. Statins (e.g., simvastatin) coronary angiography showed just how tremendously overused b. Aspirin c. Beta blocker (for years after heart attack) coronary angiography is in the U.S.—at enormous cost (Patel et d. ACE inhibitors (e.g., enalapril) al. 2010). The authors concluded that because PCI and CABG e. Calcium channel blockers (e.g., amlodipine) do not save lives or prevent heart attacks and strokes in asymp- 3. In carefully selected cases, invasive cardiovascular or cere - tomatic patients more than appropriate medical therapy (but brovascular procedures, if necessary (e.g., PCI, CABG, or may relieve angina somewhat more in symptomatic patients, as CAE) discussed below), it makes little sense to angiogram an asympto- *These generally useful drugs are all generic and inex- matic patient; by definition that person does not have angina pensive if brand name drugs are not employed. Nitrates remain useful for anginal episodes. (Patel et al. 2010). In summary, Framingham-type risk-factor modification slows or stops the atherosclerotic process and saves lives; there is no evidence that further testing is useful in the vast Approach to the Problem majority of patients (Scott 2009). In thinking about prevention and treatment of heart disease and Primary prevention of severe carotid stenosis with CEA is stroke, we conventionally divide prevention into two categories: controversial (see below). primary (treatment in high-risk patients to prevent disease) and secondary (treatment to prevent further disease, such as the use of Secondary Prevention drugs, procedures, or surgery to ameliorate the disease). Secondary prevention in the approximately twenty-five million surviving Americans with chronic coronary heart disease and Primary Prevention stroke is effective (see table 4). There is little argument about the In the prevention of heart disease and stroke, primary prevention utility of risk-factor modification (table 3) and drug use (table 4) generally refers to modifying risk factors. Primary prevention because these practices are based on a large number of conclusive evolved when the Framingham investigators and others followed controlled clinical trials (Wijeysundera et al. 2010). (The drugs up with large numbers of healthy people. The investigators mea- in table 4 are typically useful, but the exact drug program must sured hypothesized risk factors like blood pressure and serum be tailored to each individual patient.) When used in secondary cholesterol and observed what happened over time (Dawber prevention, statins alone cause a 30 percent decrease in cardiac 1980). They found that people who had, for example, high mortality over five years and about a 20 percent decrease in blood pressure and/or high cholesterol had more angina pectoris, stroke (Scandinavian Simvistatin Survival Study Group 1994). heart attacks, and strokes. They called these variables (e.g., high Statins work by stabilizing unstable plaques and preventing clots, blood pressure and high cholesterol) risk factors. Subsequently, thus preventing some heart attacks and strokes; aspirin in sec- other investigators showed that lowering blood pressure and cho- ondary prevention decreases intravascular platelet clumping lesterol led to less angina pectoris and fewer heart attacks and (clotting) on rough plaques and subsequent heart attacks and strokes, thus proving that risk-factor modification was helpful strokes (Antithrombotic Trialist’ Collaboration 2009); and blood (see table 3). pressure–lowering drugs work, in part, by lowering pressure and These measures are not controversial and are widely acknowl- thus preventing arterial wall damage by excessive pressure. It is edged to be based on sound clinical science. For example, blood worth noting that statins have little effect on the atherosclerotic pressure control alone has had an enormous impact on stroke process per se (Blankenhorn et al. 1993). and death from stroke. From these data came the Framingham What is controversial, however, is the appropriate role of PCI clinical risk score, which summarizes risk factors (age, sex, blood and CABG in secondary prevention. But before discussing this

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point, we need to return to the pathophysiology of coronary spread heart disease and at least one severely stenotic lesion seen heart disease. As noted in figure 1, there are four main issues: dif- on angiography was performed. This trial compared optimal fuse atherosclerotic narrowing, rough plaques, focal stenoses, and medical therapy (OMT) (see table 4) with OMT plus PCI (the collaterals. At present, little can be done medically or interven- Courage trial) (Boden et al. 2007). After 4.6 years, there was no tionally about diffuse atherosclerotic coronary narrowing. significant difference in deaths, heart attacks, or strokes (primary Second, to prevent heart attacks, one must stabilize rough events) between the OMT group and the OMT plus PCI group. plaques so clots will not form and suddenly stop blood flow to In fact, there were more primary events (211) in the OMT plus the distal heart muscle and cause a heart attack. This can be done PCI group than the OMT group (202). The PCI added nothing to a certain extent with statins and aspirin. However, PCI does but cost and tribulation. However, 33 percent of the OMT nothing to stabilize rough plaques. Third, focal stenoses in prin- group and 22 percent of the OMT plus PCI group did not do ciple can be dilated and stents put in to hold open narrowed well and required a PCI or CABG later. At one year, 66 percent arteries, or “jump” bypass grafts (CABG) can be placed surgi- of the patients in the PCI group were angina free, versus 57 per- cally—similar to natural collaterals (see figure 1). In principle, cent in the OMT group (p < .05), but this advantage disappeared this approach to focal stenoses should be helpful. In other words, by three years. Whether this early advantage of PCI on angina is to control angina and myocardial ischemia, the cause of angina, real, or a placebo effect due to the invasive procedure (as I dis- one should focus on focal stenoses that significantly impair blood cussed earlier), is unknown. The authors concluded that inex- flow (see below). Finally, it is not currently possible to increase pensive OMT (see table 4) should be at tempted in all compara- the size and number of collaterals. ble patients because approximately 70 percent of such patients Notwithstanding these considerations, at present the overrid- will do well on just OMT. Thus, the standard interventional ing hypothesis for many interventional cardiologists and surgeons approach is not initially justified for such patients with CAD, who employ, respectively, PCI or CABG surgery, is that the focus including those with significant stenosis, in terms of hard end- should be on dilating all significant stenoses with stents (PCI) or points. This is an important discovery because each PCI costs “jumping” the stenotic lesions with arterial or venous bypass about $51,000 (total hospital costs) (American Heart Association grafts (CABG) irrespective of the functional consequences of the 2010) compared with approximately $500 per year for treatment stenosis (Diamond and Kaul 2008). (The work of the Iowa with generic drugs (at low-cost pharmacies) (see table 4). Two very group [White et al. 1984] is ignored.) This philosophy is recent analyses of all the trials comparing stenting versus medical espoused in the American College of Cardiology/American therapy in CAD also concluded that OMT should be attempted Heart Association guidelines (Smith et al. 2005). Some critics first, before consideration of angiography, PCI, or CABG pejoratively call this luminology—excess focus on the anatomical (Trikalinos et al. 2009; Wijeysundera et al. 2010). stenosis and not enough focus on functional stenosis; other critics call this approach the oculostenotic reflex: if you see a signifi- What is really missing for progress in cant coronary or carotid stenosis on angiography, dilate and stent it (PCI) or, in other cases, “jump” it or remove it surgically coronary artery disease and stroke (CABG or CEA, respectively) (Diamond and Kaul 2008; prevention are better drugs and Pfisterer et al. 2010). (I should note, however, that in the recently lifestyle changes to slow or stop the updated guidelines, there is somewhat more emphasis on medical therapy [Patel et al. 2009].) atherosclerotic process. But what are the clinical facts supporting the standard interventional (PCI) or surgical (CABG and CEA) approaches, based Fourth, recently, the FAME (FFR vs. Angiography for on luminology and the oculostenotic reflex? The results are sur- Multivessel Evaluation) investigators carried out a critical study prising and, on first blush, may seem counterintuitive to some. attempting to improve on the philosophy of just treating stenotic First, when occluded coronary arteries were opened with balloon lesions seen on angiography with PCI and stents (Tonino et al. angioplasty (i.e., opening severe stenoses or completely closed 2009). Like the Iowa group twenty-five years ago, the FAME arteries by blowing up micro-balloons in the stenotic area), col- investigators hypothesized that you should stent only lesions that lateral vessels substantially regressed during the five months of are functionally important—not those that are just anatomically follow-up (Werner et al. 2003). This shows the dynamic nature present. They used a technique called fractional flow reserve (FFR) of collaterals and the danger that if by ill luck an opened stenotic at the time of angiography to select functionally important lesion clotted, there would be insufficient collateral blood flow to lesions, and then randomized 1,005 patients to either standard protect the distal myocardium, and a heart attack would occur. PCI or PCI guided by FFR. The results were surprising to the It is worth noting that many arterial collateral vessels are too cardiology community, which has practiced standard PCI for small to be seen on routine angiography. over twenty years. First, the average number of stents placed in Second, as I have already noted, the presence of even a severe the standard PCI group was 2.7, versus 1.9 in the FFR-guided angiographic stenosis does not establish the clinical importance of group (p < .001). More over, the primary endpoint of death, heart the stenosis, in part because in many cases collaterals can maintain attack, or repeat revascularization was 18 percent in the standard blood flow to the heart distal to the stenosis (see figure 1). group and 13 percent in the FFR group (p < .05). There were Third, a large randomized trial in 2,287 patients with wide- fifty-five deaths or heart attacks (11 percent) in the standard

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group versus thirty-seven (7 percent) in the FFR group (p < .05). the FDA and regulatory agencies throughout the world follow for Thus, with fewer stents, clinically there was a much better result. approval of the sale of drugs. The authors conclude that stenting stenotic lesions that do not What is absolutely clear is that in both primary and secondary have adverse functional consequences is actually harmful, proba- prevention, medical therapy works (see tables 3 and 4) and lessens bly because the stenting breaks off small clots and may clog use- heart attacks, strokes, and death substantially. Medical therapy is ful collaterals. A skeptic might reasonably ask: why did it take inexpensive (if generic drugs are used), and the risk–benefit ratio twenty-five years for someone to conduct a trial like the FAME for either primary or secondary prevention is strongly in patients’ trial after the Iowa group reported that the degree of stenosis did favor. Moreover, the results of medical therapy for CAD are con- not correlate with its functional consequences? (Please see dis- sistent with the hypothesis that heart attacks are generally due to cussion about table 5 below.) acute clotting on rough plaques, and angina is usually due to impaired blood flow through stenotic lesions. Do PCI and CABG surgery as now practiced—based on Table 5 opening or bypassing stenoses—appear rational? And do they Explanation for Overuse of Stents (PCI) work? As noted above, just bypassing or opening all stenotic and Jump Bypass Grafts (CABG) lesions is not helpful (FAME trial). In fact, at least one-third of 1. Many interventional physicians “believe” in what such lesions should not be stented. Second, at present there is evi- they do. dence that these procedures are not needed in approximately 70 2. Physicians prefer action. percent of patients currently undergoing these procedures 3. Physicians often see cause–effect relationships, even in their ab sence. (Courage trial). Moreover, 21 percent of patients who initially 4. Physicians depend too much on personal judgment. had PCI required a repeat PCI (Courage trial). PCI and CABG, 5. When things go wrong, physicians often chalk it up to unlike medical therapy, do nothing for rough plaque—the initi- chance. ating cause for most heart attacks. Thus, the luminology theory 6. There are huge economic incentives to perform (i.e., heart disease and stroke occur due to high-grade stenosis, PCI/CABG/CEA. and all you need to do is fix the stenosis) is extremely incomplete 7. Patient pressure secondary to medical hype. and borders on pseudoscience. Whether CABG or PCI truly improve angina much more than modern optimal medical ther- Fifth, another controlled trial (Inspire) approached the prob- apy is open to question because these interventions have a large lem from a different viewpoint (Mahmarian et al. 2006). They placebo effect, as I have noted earlier. took post–heart attack patients who showed ischemia and ran- It is worth noting the economic consequences of this tremen- domized the patients to either OMT or angiography/PCI. (The dous overuse of PCI and CABG. In 2006, 1.3 million PCIs were post-PCI drug regimen was not quite as intense as with the performed in the U.S. at a mean hospital cost of $51,000 each OMT patients). After two months, there was a comparable (American Heart Association 2010). Assuming one-quarter are decrease in myocardial ischemia in both groups. These results done justifiably for acute indications and three-quarters for help to explain the Courage study described above—OMT alone chronic heart disease (a conservative estimate), and 70 percent of is as good as angiography/PCI plus medications in patients with the latter are not initially necessary (Courage trial), approxi- myocardial ischemia. mately $35 billion per year is spent with no tangible benefit. Finally, the recent Syntax trial compared PCI and CABG Similarly, if 70 percent of the 250,000 yearly CABG operations surgery in 1,800 patients with major CAD (Serruys et al. 2009). are unnecessary at $112,000 hospital cost per operation, approx- This trial was randomized and the results conclusive. At one year, imately $20 billion is spent on unnecessary CABG surgery. (This death from any cause, heart attack, or stroke occurred in 7.7 per- assumes that PCI and CABG are equivalent as per the Syntax cent (PCI) and 7.6 percent (CABG) of patients. There were, trial referred to earlier). If this quantity of procedures were not however, more strokes in the CABG group (2.2 vs. 0.6 percent; performed, we would also need many fewer surgeons, interven- p < .001). On the other hand, 13 percent (PCI) versus 6 percent tional cardiologists, operating suites, etc. than are currently used. (CABG) of patients required repeat intervention, generally PCI If the evidence is clear, why is there a disconnect between (p < .001). In summary, on hard endpoints, these Syntax results good clinical science and actual practice? Why is OMT under- show that there is no overall advantage of CABG over PCI in used in cardiac patients (secondary prevention) and PCI and severe coronary disease; CABG patients suffer more strokes, but CABG overused? Diamond and Kaul (2008) offer five reasons, PCI patients require more revascularizations. and I would add a sixth and seventh (see table 5). Diamond and In the case of symptomatic patients with severe carotid steno- Kaul (2008) suggest that if properly designed economic incen- sis, there is clear evidence that CEA is useful in carefully selected tives were established, there would be much less PCI and CABG. patients, as I discuss below. The situation with secondary prevention of stroke is somewhat different. In symptomatic patients with severe stenotic Interpretation carotid lesions, there is clear evidence that CEA is useful (Meier In clinical medicine, there is general agreement that therapy (ei - 2010). Moreover, recent evidence reveals that, in appropriate ther preventive or treatment, as I defined above) must be proven symptomatic patients, carotid stenting after three years yields effective and be in the patient’s best interest. In other words, the comparable results to CEA if done by experienced operators, but risk–benefit ratio must favor the patient. This is the standard that the long-term utility of stenting remains to be determined (Meier

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2010). Notably, fewer cranial nerve injuries and heart attacks stroke. It is worth noting that the risk of sudden out-of-hospital death from car- occurred in the stented group. In asymptomatic patients with diac electrical malfunction secondary to heart attack is substantial. In fact, over 300,000 Americans die of sudden cardiac death (within one hour of the precipi- severe carotid stenosis, controlled trial evidence indicates that tating episode) yearly—largely secondary to coronary heart disease (Lloyd-Jones CEA is slightly better than medical therapy, with 1 percent fewer et al. 2010). strokes per year (Chambers and Donnan 2008). References Where Should We Go From Here? American Heart Association Update. 2010. Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics. Antithrombotic Trialists’ (ATT) Collaboration. 2009. Aspirin in the primary and First, we need to employ optimal medical therapy (OMT) more secondary prevention of vascular disease: Collaborative meta-analysis of indi- frequently and more intensively (Diamond and Karl 2008) in vidual participant data from randomized trials. The Lancet 373: 1849–1860. Beecher, H.K. 1961. Surgery as placebo. Journal of the American Medical CAD and cerebrovascular patients. The tremendous decline in Association 176: 1102–1108. cardiovascular and stroke deaths is due, in large part, to primary Blankenhorn, D.H., S.P. Azen, D.M. Kramsch, et al. 1993. Coronary angiographic changes with Lovastatin therapy: The monitored atherosclerosis and secondary prevention (see tables 3 and 4). We need to do regression study (MARS). Annals of Internal Medicine 119: 969–976. everything possible to make sure patients are compliant with Boden, W.E., R.A. O’Rourke, K.K. Teo, et al. 2007. Optimal medical therapy these programs. with or without PCI for stable coronary disease. New England Journal of Medicine 356: 1503–1516. Second, we need to better understand which patients will Chambers, B.R., and Donnan G. 2008. Carotid endarterectomy for asympto- benefit from PCI or, if necessary, CABG. There is some evidence matic carotid stenosis. The Cochrane Library 4: 1–7. Dawber, T.R. 1980. The Framingham Study: The Epidemiology of Atherosclerotic that cardiac patients with a major functionally important steno- Disease. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. sis (e.g., those with major lack of blood flow on exercise or its Diamond, G.A., and S. Kaul. 2008. The disconnect between practice guidelines equivalent, as measured by exercise-induced EKG changes or and clinical practice—stressed out. Journal of American Medical Association 15: 1817–1818. other methods) may benefit more from PCI than OMT. Fry, J. 1976. The natural history of angina in a general practice. Journal of the However, this is controversial and unproven; the Inspire trial did Royal College of General Practitioners 26: 643–646. Lloyed-Jones, D., R.J. Adams, T.M. Brown, et al. 2010. Heart disease and stroke not find such a difference, but this was not an endpoint trial statistics—2010 update: A report from the American Heart Association. (Mahmarian et al. 2006). In the Inspire trial, medical therapy Circulation 121: e46–e215. and PCI had comparable effects on myocardial ischemia, as Mahmarian, J.J., H.A. Dakik, N.G. Filipchuk, et al. 2006. An initial strategy of intensive medical therapy is comparable to that of coronary revascularization noted earlier. However, on hard endpoints, the Inspire trial was for suppression of scintigraphic ischemia in high-risk but stable survivors of too small to record enough deaths or heart attacks to be defini- acute myocardial infarction. Journal of the American College of Cardiology 48: 2458–2467. tive. If patients who would benefit from PCI or CABG were pre- Meier, P., G. Knapp, and U. Tamhane, et al. 2010. Short term and intermediate selected, progress might be made in the more rational use of PCI term comparison of endarterectomy versus stenting for carotid artery steno- and CABG. However, this will not cure the problem of athero- sis: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled clinical trials. British Medical Journal 340:c467: 1–9. sclerosis, rough plaques, clots, and heart attacks. We must also Patel, M.R., G.J. Dehmer, J.W. Hirshfeld, et al. 2009. ACCF/SCAI/STS/ remember that the use of invasive procedures engenders a large AATS/AHA/ASNC 2009. Appropriateness criteria for coronary revascularization. Circulation 119: 1330–1352. placebo effect in angina studies. PCI and CABG will not be Patel, M.R., E.D. Peterson, D. Dai, et al. 2010. Low diagnostic yield of elective major solutions to the vascular problems in table 1, but their use, coronary angiography. New England Journal of Medicine 362: 886–895. with further study, can hopefully be rationalized. Pfisterer, M.E., M.J. Zellweger, B.J. Gersh. 2010. Management of stable coronary artery disease. The Lancet 375: 763–772. Finally, what is really missing for progress in CAD and stroke Preston, T. 1977. Coronary Artery Surgery: A Critical Review. New York: Raven prevention are better drugs and lifestyle changes to slow or stop Press. Scandinavian Simvistatin Survival Study Group. 1994. Randomized trial of cho- the atherosclerotic process. Indeed, as a nation, with the American lesterol lowering in 4444 patients with coronary heart disease (4S). The population increasing in weight and the attendant increase in dia- Lancet 344: 1383–1389. Scott, I.A. 2009. Evaluating cardiovascular risk assessment for asymptomatic peo- betes, we are going in the wrong direction. (In adult-onset dia- ple. British Medical Journal 338:a2844: 164–168. betes, weight control is by far the most important modifiable risk Serruys, P.W., M-C. Morice, P. Kappetein, et al. 2009. Percutaneous coronary factor.) Notwithstanding these worrying trends in weight, the intervention versus coronary-artery bypass grafting for severe coronary artery disease. New England Journal of Medicine 360: 961–972. approaches in tables 3 and 4 have been useful for many people. Smith, S.C., T.E. Feldman, J.W. Hirshfeld, et al. 2005. ACC/AHA/SCAI 2005 But, as shown in table 1, there is still a huge burden of heart and guideline update for percutaneous coronary intervention—summary article: A report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cerebrovascular disease in the U.S. population. We need to better task force on practice guidelines (ACC/AHA/SCAI writing committee to understand the atherosclerotic process and then intervene to fix it. update the 2001 guideline for percutaneous coronary intervention). Current drugs, although useful—or even the future rational use of Circulation 113: 156–175. Tonino, P.A., B. De Bruyne, N.H. Pijls, et al. 2009. Fractional flow reserve ver- PCI and CABG—is not the final solution. sus angiograph for guiding percutaneous coronary intervention. New England Journal of Medicine 360: 213–224. Acknowledgments Trikalinos, T.A., A.A. Alsheikh-Ali, A. Tatsioni, et al. 2009. Percutaneous coronary interventions for non-acute coronary artery disease: A quantitative 20- I thank Michiko Spector for her help in manuscript preparation and year synopsis and a network meta-analysis. The Lancet 373: 911–918. June Spector, MD, MPH, for her constructive criticism. Werner, G.S., U. Emig, O. Mutschke, et al. 2003. Regression of collateral function after racanalization of chronic total coronary occlusions. Circulation 108: Note 2877–2882. White, C.W., C.B. Wright, D.B. Doty, et al. 1984. Does visual interpretation of 1. I will not deal with non-cerebrovascular and non-coronary heart disease the coronary arteriogram predict the physiologic importance of a coronary (e.g., valvular disease). I should also emphasize that acute chest pain (heart stenosis? New England Journal of Medicine 310: 810–824. attacks) and strokes require immediate medical attention and are not covered in Wijeysundera, H.C., B.K. Nallamothu, H.M. Krumholz, et al. 2010. Meta- this analysis. Patients with acute chest pain and stroke must seek medical care as analysis: Effects of percutaneous coronary intervention versus medical ther- soon as possible because there are effective treatments for acute heart attack and apy on angina relief. Annals of Internal Medicine 152: 370–379.

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Should Chiropractors Treat Children?

Parents should be made aware of possible risks associated with chiropractic treatment of children, particularly the services offered by “pediatric chiropractors.” SAMUEL HOMOLA

n March 18, 1993, The Wall Street Journal publish - ed a front-page article dealing with chiropractic Otreatment of children. Labeling chiropractic as a nineteenth-century philosophy wearing the white smock of science, the article castigated chiropractors for treating children for “legions of childhood afflictions” (Smith 1993). A year later, on February 4, 1994, ABC’s 20/20 aired “Han - dle with Care,” an episode based on secretly videotaped visits to the offices of seventeen chiropractors who treated ear infections in children. All of the chiropractors offered treatment lasting from several weeks to a lifetime. Treatment methods were based on diagnoses ranging from subluxated vertebrae to nutritional deficiency, weak glands, food sensitivity, and a short leg.

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Chiropractic treatment of children has not been curtailed 2005). For wellness and preventive care, parents are advised by such bad publicity. Today, building on a program that that children should be checked for subluxations by a chiro- began in 1993, the International Chiropractic Association of - practor six to twelve times per year (Fallon 2005). fers a postgraduate “Diplomate in Clinical Chiropractic A 2009 survey of chiropractors and parents of chiropractic Pediatrics” (DICCP) and publishes the “peer reviewed” pediatric patients, conducted by the International Chiro - Journal of Clinical Chiropractic Pediatrics. The diplomate pro- practic Pediatric Association, revealed that “the indicated pri- gram is a thirty-module, 360-plus-hour classroom course that mary reason for chiropractic care of children was ‘wellness takes place during weekends over a three-year period. There is care’” (Alcantara 2009). The reasons given for such care would no hospital training and no contact with diseased or injured indicate that normal spines of healthy children are being children—only a “mandatory observational/training weekend manipulated for “subluxation correction.” at a chiropractic center for special needs children under multi- disciplinary care” (ICA Council 2009). Both American chiropractic associations endorse chiropractic care for children. In a June 2008 joint press release, for example, the American Chiropractic Association’s (ACA) Coun cil on Chiropractic Pediatrics and the Council on Chiro - practic Pediatrics of the International Chiropractors Associa - tion (ICA) announced that the DICCP is now recognized by the ACA and its council as the official credential for special- ization in chiropractic pediatrics (ACA 2007). Noting increasing public support for chiropractic treatment of children, a January 2009 press release from the ACA offered this observation: “Survey data indicates that the percentage of chiropractic patients under 17 years of age has increased at least 8.5 percent since 1991. ... Studies are begin- Photograph by Judith Calson/San Jose Mercury News ning to show that chiropractic can help children not only with There is no credible evidence to support the contention typical back and neck pain complaints, but also with issues as that subluxation correction will restore or maintain health or varied as asthma, chronic ear infections, nursing difficulties, that such subluxations even exist (College 1996; Mirtz 2009). colic and bedwetting” (ACA 2009). Chiropractic journals publish hundreds of subluxation-based A trend toward greater use of chiropractic by children has studies supporting chiropractic treatment for children but not gone unnoticed by the medical profession. An article in only a few studies disputing such treatment. Most medical the January 2007 issue of Pediatrics (the official journal of the researchers feel that claims based on the chiropractic vertebral American Academy of Pediatrics) described chiropractic as the subluxation theory do not have sufficient basis to warrant most common complementary and alternative medicine prac- investigation. But such claims should not go unchallenged, tice used by children, who made an estimated thirty million especially when they involve treatment of children. visits to U.S. chiropractors in 1997 (Vohra 2007). In 1998, children and adolescents constituted 11 percent of patient vis- Contrary Opinions its to chiropractors (Lee 2000). To date, legitimate properly controlled studies have failed to sup- Promoting a broad scope of practice for chiropractors who port the claims of chiropractors who treat children for organic treat children, the ICA Council on Chiropractic Pediatrics ailments. In the case of asthma, for example, a randomized, con- offers links to abstracts from chiropractic journals that support trolled trial of chiropractic spinal manipulation for children with chiropractic treatment for a variety of childhood ailments mild or moderate asthma published in the New England Journal (ICA Pediatrics 2009). Chiropractors commonly claim to have of Medicine revealed that “the addition of chiropractic spinal an effective treatment for otitis media, asthma, allergies, infan- manipulation to usual medical care provided no benefit” (Balon tile colic, and enuresis. While many of the pediatric conditions 1998). A randomized, controlled trial of infantile colic treated treated by chiropractors are self-limiting, treatment is offered with chiropractic spinal manipulation, published in a 2001 issue for such serious conditions as cerebral palsy, epilepsy, myas- of Archives of Diseases in Childhood, concluded that “chiropractic thenia gravis, uveitis, ADHD, and Tourette’s syndrome. For spinal manipulation is no more effective than placebo in the the most part, treatment for all these conditions is based upon treatment of infantile colic” (Olafdottir 2001). A recent system- detection and correction of vertebral misalignment (subluxa- atic review of randomized clinical trials concluded that “there is tion) or spinal joint dysfunction (vertebral subluxation complex). An article titled “The Child Patient: A Matrix for Chiro - Samuel Homola is a retired chiropractor and a critic of the practic Care” in the Journal of Clinical Chiropractic Pediatrics, chiropractic vertebral subluxation theory. He feels that chi- for example, stated that “any alteration in form or function in ropractic treatment should be limited to mechanical-type the child may signal the presence of subluxation, and the sub- neck and back problems and related musculoskeletal prob - luxation may in turn alter the physiology of the child” (Fallon lems. His e-mail address is [email protected].

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no good evidence to show that spinal manipulation is effective detectable. “The incidence of subtle growth plate fractures fol- for [treating] infant colic” (Ernst 2009). lowing high-velocity [manipulation] techniques in children is There is evidence to indicate that soft-tissue manipulative surely under-appreciated because of the occult nature of these techniques applied over the neck area might aid recovery from injuries” (O’Neal 2003). secretory otitis media (inflammation of the middle ear) by The cartilaginous, flexible spine of a child is not as easily in - opening the eustachian tube to facilitate drainage of fluids jured as an adult’s spine under normal circumstances. Referred from the middle ear (Mills 2003). Chiropractors who manip- pain caused by organic disease is not commonly experienced by ulate a child’s neck to correct subluxations might provide some children. When back pain in a child does occur, it is potentially symptomatic relief for otitis media by inadvertently stretching more serious than back pain in an adult and should always be the eustachian tube. But the risk of such treatment would out- brought to the attention of a board-certified pediatrician. weigh any possible benefit. (Although otitis media is normally Although spinal manipulation has the potential to injure self-limiting, it should be kept under observation by a pedia- the spine of a child, few such injuries have been reported in the trician who can prescribe antibiotics, if needed, when there is literature. A systematic review of thirteen studies, published acute otitis media with bacterial infection. Otitis media com- up to June 2004, uncovered fourteen significant manipula- monly occurs in children under three years of age. As the child tion-related injuries in children up to eighteen years of age, grows older, an increase in the length and angle of the nine of which were serious (e.g., subarachnoidal hemorrhage, eustachian tube reduces chances of bacteria or viruses traveling paraplegia) and two of which were fatal (one child died from from the throat to the middle ear.) a brain hemorrhage and another from dislocation of the atlas following neck manipulation). Ten of the injuries were attributed to manipulation done by chiropractors, one to manipu- I have always suspected that chiroprac- lation by a physiotherapist, and one to manipulation by a medical doctor; two injuries were caused by unspecified tors who say they can use their finger- providers of manipulation. In twenty cases of harm caused by tips to feel subluxations in a baby’s delayed diagnosis as a result of using manipulation, seven involved a delayed diagnosis of cancer; two children died spine are either deceiving themselves or because of delayed treatment for meningitis (Vohra 2007). misinterpreting what they feel. The incidence of spinal injuries in children is reported to be 2 to 5 percent of all spine injuries (Hayes 2005).

A Questionable Approach Considering the implausibility of the chiropractic vertebral High-velocity, low-amplitude thrusting, commonly used by subluxation theory, there is good reason to question the ability of chiropractors, is usually the type of manipulation that injures a chiropractors to diagnose and treat childhood ailments. A correct child’s spine. Most chiropractors who manipulate an infant’s diagnosis notwithstanding, there is no evidence to support the spine may simply use light thumb pressure to “adjust” an belief that manipulating the spine of a child to correct vertebral allegedly misaligned vertebra, thus reducing possibility of subluxations would be appropriate treatment. A 1993 risk–ben- injury. Although such treatment may be harmless, it has no efit analysis of spinal manipulative therapy (SMT) for relief of known beneficial effect other than the calming effect of human lumbar or cervical pain, published in Online Neurosurgery, touch. Some chiropractors may use a spring-loaded stylus or an advised neurosurgeons that “potential complications and electrically powered mallet in an attempt to tap vertebrae into unknown benefits indicate that SMT should not be used in the alignment. Chiropractors who adjust newborn babies to correct pediatric population” (Powell 1993). subluxations may concentrate on the upper cervical (neck) area Considering the damage that manipulation might do to of the spine. The upper neck is more likely to be injured by cartilaginous growth centers, there is no known justification delivery during birth and is most vulnerable to injury caused by for using spinal manipulation on an infant or a preadolescent manipulation. Pediatricians have observed that “the most com- child. Yet, many chiropractors recommend that the spine of a mon traumatically injured region of the immature spine is the newborn baby be adjusted at birth to correct subluxations. first and second cervical vertebrae” (O’Neal 2003). According to the ICA Council on Chiropractic Pediatrics, There is no credible evidence that chiropractors are able to “chiropractic care can never start too early” (ICA Home 2009). find subluxations in the spine of an infant. It seems unlikely Generally, pediatricians classify a child as being under eigh- that a chiropractor could detect vertebral misalignment by pal- teen years of age—before vertebral end plate growth is com- pating the flexible, cartilaginous spine of an infant through a plete. In a child under the age of eight to ten years, the carti- thick layer of baby fat. I have always suspected that chiroprac- laginous growth centers are too immature and too vulnerable tors who say they can use their fingertips to feel subluxations to injury to be subjected to spinal manipulation. There is some in a baby’s spine are either deceiving themselves or misinter- speculation that injury to growth plates might result in spinal preting what they feel. deformity (such as scoliosis or Scheuermann’s kyphosis) as Some chiropractors use surface electromyography, thermog- growth progresses (O’Neal 2003). Such injury might not be raphy, leg-length checks, or some other questionable device or

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approach to locate subluxations. It goes without saying that chi- tional advice and/or support and other palliative measures” ropractors should not expose a child to unnecessary radiation by (Christensen 2005). x-raying his or her spine in a search of elusive or nonexistent All things considered, it’s an understatement to say that “pedi- subluxations. In Canada, the Alberta Society of Radiology has atric chiropractic care is often inconsistent with recommended recommended that radiologists refuse requests from chiroprac- medical guidelines” (Lee 2000). Recommendation of any com- tors who ask for diagnostic imaging of any type involving chil- plementary alternative medicine (CAM) therapy that has a dren aged eighteen years or younger (Editorial 1998). risk–benefit ratio that is not acceptable and is not supported in Of all the claims made by chiropractors, I regard the claims medical literature may make a referring physician liable for neg- made by those who treat children to be the most problematic. ligence if the referral causes harm by delaying necessary conven- I have always advised against manipulating the spine of a small tional treatment (Cohen 2005). For this reason, and with the child or a newborn baby for any reason. Manipulation of the best interest of children in mind, few physicians would consider spine of an adolescent child under the age of eighteen should referring a child to a chiropractor. be done in concert with an evaluation and a diagnosis provided by an orthopedist, preferably a pediatric orthopedic spe- References cialist. Caring for children is very different from caring for ACA Council on Chiropractic Pediatrics. 2007. Pediatric diplomate certifica- tion recognized by both ICA and ACA. Available online at www.acapeds adults and requires a special expertise. Board-certified medical council.org/pressrelease.html (accessed September 21, 2009). and osteopathic pediatricians are best qualified to provide ap - ACA. 2009. Increasing numbers of children receive pediatric chiropractic care. January. Available online at www.acatoday.org/press_css.cfm?CID=3247 propriate care based on a correct diagnosis. (accessed September 21, 2009). Although spinal manipulation is often recommended as a Alcantara J., J. Ohm, and D. Kunz. 2009. The safety and effectiveness of pediatric chiropractic: A survey of chiropractors and parents in a practice- treatment for back pain, this recommendation does not often based research network. Journal of Science and Healing 5(5): 290–295. apply to children. When the U.S. Department of Health and Balon, J., et al. 1998. A comparison of active and simulated chiropractic manipulation as adjunctive treatment for childhood asthma. New England Human Services published guidelines suggesting that spinal Journal of Medicine 339(15): 1013–1020. manipulation might be helpful in treating low back pain with- Bigos, S.J., et al. 1994. Acute Low Back Problems in Adults. Rockville, out radiculopathy (sciatic pain) when used within the first Maryland: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. AHCPR Pub - lication No. 95-0642. month of symptoms, its recommendations did not apply to Christensen, M., et al. 2005. Job Analysis of Chiropractic. Greeley, CO: children younger than eighteen years of age “since diagnostic National Board of Chiropractic Examiners. Cohen, M.H., and K.J. Kemper. 2005. Complementary therapies in pedi- and treatment considerations for this group are often different atrics: A legal perspective. Pediatrics 115(3): 774–780. than for adults” (Bigos 1994). An adolescent child might ben- College of Physicians and Surgeons of the Province of Quebec. 1966. A scientific brief against chiropractic. New Physician. September. Available efit from appropriate manipulation designed to relieve symp- online at www.chirobase.org/05RB/CPSQ/00.html (accessed September toms caused by uncomplicated, mechanical-type back prob- 21, 2009). Editorial. 1998. Alberta radiologists target chiropractors. Canadian Medical lems, but only if a definitive diagnosis has been provided by an Association Journal 159(10): 1237. orthopedist or a pediatrician. Use of unnecessary spinal Ernst, E. 2009. Chiropractic spinal manipulation for infant colic: A system- manipulation in the treatment of children up to eighteen years atic review of randomized clinical trials. International Journal of Clinical Practice 63(9): 1351–1353. of age for subluxation correction may delay appropriate treat- Fallon, J. 2005. The child patient: A matrix for chiropractic care. Journal of ment based on a correct diagnosis. Clinical Chiropractic Pediatrics (Supplement) 6(3). Hayes J., and T. Arriola. 2005. Pediatric spinal injuries. Pediatric Nursing. Some chiropractors believe that manipulating a child’s spine 31(6): 464–467. will stimulate the immune system and help prevent infection. ICA Council. Diplomate in Chiropractic Pediatrics. Available online at www.icapediatrics.com/members-postgrad.php (accessed September 21, On September 8, 2009, for example, the Journal of Pediatric, 2009). Maternal and Family Health Chiropractic issued a press release ICA Pediatrics. Journal Abstracts. Available online at www.icapediatrics.com/reference-journals.php (accessed September 21, 2009). titled “Chiropractic Part of Swine Flu Prevention Program in ICA Home. Council on Chiropractic Pediatrics. Available online at www.ica- Children.” The editor of the journal recommended that all chil- pediatrics.com (accessed September 21, 2009). dren should be checked for vertebral subluxations before and Lee, A., D. Li, and K. Kemper. 2000. Chiropractic care for children. Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine 154: 401–407. during the flu season: “Since the nervous system has a direct McCoy, M. 2009. Chiropractic part of swine flu prevention program in chil- effect on the immune system and because the spine houses and dren. McCoy Press Research Update. September 8. Available online at http://researchupdate.mccoypress.net (accessed September 21, 2009). protects so much of the nerve system it is important to have your Mills, V., et al. 2003. The use of osteopathic manipulative treatment as adju- child’s spine checked for any interference” (McCoy 2009). vant therapy in children with recurrent acute otitis media. Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine 157(9): 861–866. Such extreme views find support in the basic definition of Mirtz, T., et al. 2009. An epidemiological examination of the subluxation con- chiro practic and in official chiropractic publications. The struct using Hill’s criteria of causation. Chiropractic and Osteopathy 17: 13. Available online at www.chiroandosteo.com/content/17/1/13 (accessed National Board of Chiropractic Examiners, for example, advises April 10, 2010). that “psychoneuroimmunology has revealed an interrelationship Olafdottir E., et al. 2001. Randomised controlled trial of infantile colic between the central nervous system and immunity (consistent treated with chiropractic spinal manipulation. Archives of Disease in Childhood 84(2): 138–141. with chiropractic philosophy). ... By manually manipulating O’Neal, M.L. 2003. The pediatric spine: Anatomical and dynamic considera- vertebrae into their normal physiological relationship, chiroprac- tions preceding manipulation. Comprehensive Therapy 29(2): 124–129. Powell, F.C., et al. 1993. A risk/benefit analysis of spinal manipulation ther- tic practitioners relieve interference with the nervous system apy for relief of lumbar or cervical pain. Neurosurgery Online 33(1): 73. along with accompanying symptoms.” Thus, “chiropractic man- Smith, T. 1993. Chiropractors seeking to expand practice take aim at children. Wall Street Journal. March 18, 4A. agement of childhood disorders primarily consists of adjusting Vohra, S., et al. 2007. Adverse events associated with pediatric spinal manip- concomitant spinal subluxations and providing specific nutri- ulation: A systematic review. Pediatrics 119(1): e275–e283.

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Paranormal Beliefs and Schizophrenia

JONATHAN C. SMITH

re true believers in the paranormal come from outside sources, like space tion or use sensible tools of critical think- crazy? Few scholars would seri- aliens, CIA operatives, therapists, their ing—possess a similar thinking process. A ously embrace this extreme char- mothers, and so on, trying to control their For example, Sue might believe that she acterization. However, there is a type of thoughts. Why do such delusions emerge? has been abducted by space aliens. Maybe “crazy thinking” that is worth exploring. One popular theory is that terrified one night she woke up paralyzed and saw Let me explain. and confused schizophrenics try to make the dark figure of a space creature that Schizophrenia is a serious mental dis- some sense out of a frightening world by stood by her bed, touched her, and took order characterized by distortions in per- concluding that the voices come from her breath away. Of course, there may be ception of reality, disorganized speech and an outside source, like space aliens. At numerous alternative explanations: per- thinking, and serious deterioration of the least this explanation reduces some of haps Sue experienced a sleep-related hal- ability to function with others. Contrary the anxious uncertainty of not knowing lucination, misinterpreted a shadow, or to popular myth, schizophrenics do not what’s going on. When such explana- has faulty memory. Maybe there is a nat- have “split” or “multiple” personalities. tions are challenged or don’t fit apparent ural explanation, one that current tech- Many schizophrenics have auditory hallu- reality (no flying saucers are found), the nology can’t measure. cinations in which they hear voices. patient patches up the false belief so it is However, Sue is convinced that her Actually, auditory hallucinations are rela- still believable. alien experience is real and can’t be tively common even among perfectly nor- Logically, there are only a few ways to explained through science—that it was a mal people. Often, schizophrenics claim do this. First, you can conclude you are paranormal event. Sue looks for reassur- their voices and perceptual distortions very special, a truly unique person, the ing answers. Like the schizophrenic, she only one who has paranormal abilities has two choices. that enable you to hear these voices. One possibility is that she is unique Jonathan C. Smith is a licensed Second, you can conclude that your voices and special. Sue may then seek out others clinical psychologist, professor could be heard by others if some external who have had similar experiences and of psychology at Chicago’s paranormal force or agency wasn’t pre- form a unique and special group, some- Roosevelt University (where he venting it. These two explanations may thing like the “Church of the Abductee.” heads the university’s Pseudo - account for why some schizophrenics have Their core belief is that space aliens have science and Paranormal Lab), and author of nine- delusions of grandeur (“I’m unique and selected them to communicate with the teen books. His most recent book, Pseudo science special”) or embrace delusional conspiracy people of Earth. (Every decade or so and Extraordinary Claims of the Paranormal: A theories (“God, fate, negative energies, another odd and occasionally deadly fly- Critical Thinker’s Toolkit (Wiley-Blackwell, 2010; space aliens, and the CIA are blocking ing saucer cult em erges; one has even see SI New Books, March/April 2010), is rapidly others from seeing the evidence”). become a world religion.) emerging as a popular college textbook. His Web I propose that perfectly sane, intelli- Alternatively, Sue (and her abductee page is at www.lulu.com/stress. E-mail: stressin- gent, and honest true believers in the friends) might favor an external explana- [email protected]. paranormal—those who refuse to question. There are two popular external

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explanations: First, scientists see no evi- Sane, intelligent, educated, honest, And the fact that many may have had dence for abductions because some and perfectly decent people are quite the same experience proves nothing. external paranormal force or agency is capable of experiencing profound delu- One thousand people seeing the same getting in the way. Perhaps scientific sions and distortions. They include mysterious flying-saucer–like light over skepticism or the cold atmosphere of a your favorite professors, preachers, and Kansas proves nothing. One thousand science lab emits a certain paranormal friends—even your mother. They can people seeing the Virgin Mary in a stain “negativity” that blocks alien energy or believe in their delusions and distor- on a Chicago freeway embankment (or scares the poor, sensitive aliens away. tions with convincing and authentic a grilled-cheese sandwich) proves noth- Maybe such skepticism annoys the intensity. These people are not crazy. ing. People have believed in the curses of witches for many millennia and put hundreds of thousands of “witches” to Like the schizophrenic, the believer in the paranormal death. Extra ordinary beliefs can have extraordinary consequences. may be motivated to “patch up” her beliefs when The schizophrenic may embrace para - confronted with conflicting evidence. She may spin normal explanations in a desperate at - tempt to reduce the terrors of a mysteri- a never-ending web of ad hoc rationalizations ous medical illness. For those blessed with at least a modicum of sanity, the tools of that render her claims unfalsifiable. critical thinking give some chance of remaining grounded in the world as it is.

© 2010, Jonathan C. Smith, PhD aliens. Similar explanations are often given for why scientific and objective evidence for paranormal phenomena is lacking. Second, evidence for alien abductions eludes scientists and experts because there is a conspiracy among those in power to keep us in the dark. Who is part of this conspiracy? Perhaps the U.S. government, the CIA, religious authorities, or the scientific community—or maybe even a medical community fearful that doctors would be put out of business if the common man had access to alien medicine. To be consistent, we would have to conclude that if the conspirers were any good, even this would be unclear. Like the schizophrenic, Sue may be motivated to “patch up” her beliefs when confronted with conflicting evidence. She may spin a never-ending web of ad hoc rationalizations that render her claims unfalsifiable. For the schizophrenic, such efforts help protect against fears of the unknown. Both a paranormal believer and a schizophrenic can create belief systems of exquisite complexity, rivaling ancient charts of astrol- ogy and acupuncture. Delusional systems can acquire a life of their own, protected from critical assessment through their own complexity.

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Raising the Bar for Investigating Paranormal Claims ROBERT CARROLL

Scientific Paranormal Investigation: How to Solve Unexplained Mysteries. By Benjamin Radford. Rhombus Publishing Co., Corrales, New Mexico, 2010. 311 pp. Softcover, $16.95.

n a chapter on how not to investigate Scien tific Paranormal Investigation would the paranormal in his new book, be a valuable addition to the library of IScientific Paranormal Investigation, every journalist and skeptic. But the thou- Benjamin Radford jokes that the entire sands of people who investigate weird or chapter could consist of just two words: mysterious things and the millions of watch television. He could have advised readers and viewers who follow their in - the reader to pick up almost any book vestigations would benefit the most. on ghosts, demons, spirits, aliens, lake I won’t relieve the lazy reader of the monsters, crop circles, the chupacabra, obligation to read Radford’s book by or other “strange and bizarre” things. summarizing the principles of a proper The bar for paranormal investigation in scientific investigation. Here I will sim- the popular media has been set very low, ply note that the goal of a proper inves- as evidenced by the overall poor quality tigation of the paranormal is neither to of work produced so far. Radford hopes prove nor disprove any particular claim. to raise the bar by clarifying and exem- Radford puts it this way: “Good science plifying the standards that should guide regularly reports on his field investiga- is not about advocacy; while all scien- a scientific investigator. tions and other skeptical topics in the tists have their biases and pet theories, Fortunately, not all paranormal in - SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. He is SI’s manag- their ultimate loyalty should be to the vestigations have been of poor quality. ing editor and a Committee for Skep - truth.” If you set out to prove or dis- Radford, Joe Nickell—the dean of scien- tical Inquiry research fellow.) prove the existence of a ghost at a par- tific paranormal investigation—and sev- Radford tells the reader that his book ticular location, you are not doing a sci- eral others have been exemplars for those “focuses on the practical aspects of entific investigation. If the show you are who wish to properly investigate paranor- applied skepticism . . . powerful, real- watching or the book you are reading mal claims. A special feature of Radford’s world ideas for critically examining does not consider alternative hypothe- book is that it consists largely of case everything from crime scenes to psychic ses, it is not conducting scientific inves- studies he has personally investigated. powers to personal decisions.” These tigation. If an author claims that the The reader can see how the principles of ideas have been drawn “largely from the subject of his attention or investigation investigation are applied to actual para- scientific process, psychology, criminal is “beyond science,” you’re dealing with normal claims. But the main value of investigation techniques, and logic.” As mysticism, not mysteries. Paranormal Radford’s book is that he lays out what such, the ideas Radford explores in the claims may mystify us, but if they are should and should not be done in a first few chapters have valuable applica- truly beyond science then they are proper scientific investigation. (Radford tions be yond paranormal investigations. beyond our ability to know or under-

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stand them. A book or film on such top- may have good intentions, but the road to tific gadgets is not as important as knowl- ics would be very short, unless it con- error is paved with good intentions. edge of the subject, knowledge of psy- tains much speculation and storytelling. Having the right tools is essential, but as chology, good logical reasoning skills, and Paranormal claims are investigated pre- Radford makes painfully clear, you can’t an open mind. cisely because they both mystify us and buy the most important tools you need. Radford’s book does what a scientific paranormal investigation should do: it present themselves as mysteries we can You can’t pick them up in a weekend helps the reader distinguish the real thing hope to solve. training session. It takes years of hard from the fake. Unfortunately, too many people who work to develop the knowledge and skills try to investigate rather than validate or needed to be a scientific paranormal Robert Carroll is emeritus professor of philoso- debunk paranormal claims are unpre- investigator. Contrary to what you might phy at Sacramento City College and creator of pared to do a proper investigation. They see on television, an abundance of scien- The Skeptic’s Dictionary Web site.

handles this neatly by saying that this is A Gifted Writer and a a question science can’t help with. He refers readers to their “family, friends, Book Worth Giving and community leaders.” (He avoids HARRIET HALL mentioning rabbis, imams, priests, or Flying Spaghetti Monsterologists.) Evolution: How We and All Living Things Came to Be. Loxton has a wonderful knack for By Daniel Loxton. Kids Can Press, Toronto, 2010. simplifying without condescending and ISBN: 978-1554534302. Hardcover, $18.95. for challenging young readers to grapple with complicated concepts. The book is t’s hard to believe that we still have Loxton covers the basics of evolu- aimed at eight–to thirteen-year-olds, so many evolution deniers among tionary theory; tells the story of Darwin, but it could be useful to even a sophisti- Ius. Understanding evolution is es - the Beagle, and the finches; and answers cated old coot. Some of his examples sential to understanding modern biol- the questions people commonly ask: might come in handy in your next dis- ogy as well as a host of other subjects. “But have we ever actually seen a new cussion with an intelligent design be - We need to get to young minds before species evolve?” Yes, both in the wild liever or a fence sitter. I loved his illustration of how evolutionary change is their neurons have a chance to congeal and in the lab. not a totally random process but builds into unscientific ideologies. Now we have “Where are the transitional fossils?” on patterns that were already there. He just the book to reach them. Everywhere. describes how hot-rod builders can lift a Daniel Loxton is the editor of the “Didn’t they find some human foot- car, drop it, chop the roof, and slap on “Junior Skeptic” section of Skeptic maga- prints together with dinosaur foot- new paint, but they are still stuck with zine, where he makes skepticism and prints?” No, they made a mistake. the basic pattern of a body and four critical thinking accessible and entertain- “How could evolution produce some- wheels (not two or seventeen). ing to the younger set. He has expanded thing as complicated as my eyes?” Lox - If you have children or grandchil- one of his “Junior Skeptic” subjects into ton shows us how complex eyes gradu- dren, this book would be a great way to a superb new book on evolution. ally developed from simple light-sensi- introduce them to the theory of evolu- The illustrations are colorful, infor- tive cells. tion. If you don’t, you still might want to mative, and whimsical. Loxton intro- “How could walking animals turn buy a copy, read it yourself, and donate it duces us to a blue bird that compro- into flying animals?” Perhaps from grad- to the local public or school library. mises on a tail that is “not too long, not ual alterations in tree-dwelling, gliding I hope Loxton will write many more too short,” some cute “Zooks” that animals. books like this on a wide variety of skep- move away and eventually lose the inter- Then the hard questions: “How did tical subjects. He has a gift, and we are est and ability to mate with the others, a life start in the first place?” Evolution fortunate that he is sharing it with us. boy overrun with bunnies that have doesn’t explain the origin of life, just reproduced without anything to limit how it changed over time. We don’t survival of the offspring, and some really know how life got started, but scientists Harriet Hall is a physician and SI contributing cool dinosaurs. They’re a joy to the eye, are working on it. editor who writes prolifically about pseudo- and the text is a joy to the mind. And “What about religion?” Loxton science and questionable medical practices.

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hand them over, the local potters produced new pieces. The Faked Artifact Bruhns and Keller describe the work- shops of several of the families produc- Business ing ceramics known to have been au - thenticated as ancient, which have CAROL HAYMAN ended up in museums and galleries. Faking the Ancient Andes. By Karen O. Bruhns and Nancy L. Some of the craftspeople have been Keller. Left Coast Press, Walnut Creek, California, 2010. trained at the Bellas Artes in Lima and ISBN: 978-1-59874-395-1. 192 pp. Paperback, $29.95. schools abroad. Their work was in - tended as replicas and may even have been signed, but they have no control over it after it leaves their hands. aking the Ancient Andes by Karen and their collection of hats stolen. They Although the work can be finely de - O. Bruhns and Nancy L. Keller is later showed up in a glossy catalog from a signed and crafted, it cannot receive the California museum. Fa call for anyone associated with recognition it deserves because muse- Some feel that the market in forgeries ancient art to refrain from actively ums and collectors will not pay for mod- encouraging the wholesale destruction lessens the pressure on archaeological ern interpretations; they want only the of the world’s artistic heritage. What sites, but it is all part of the same prob- old stuff. does it matter to the average museum lem. Forgeries authenticated by so-called In the Indian Market in Lima, I visitor that much of what is on display is experts end up in collections and muse- bought one of the Nazca pieces illus- less than genuine? Everyone who looks ums, confusing casual visitors and future trated on page 97 of Bruhns and Keller’s the other way is contributing to the pol- scholars alike. Misled scholars will create book, described there as being sold and lution of scholarship and distortions of an imagined, fraudulent history. The bought as a genuine antiquity. In Ica, I history and science. Looting and forgery huge sums of money paid for looted or saw for sale in a museum shop what I go hand in hand, destroying cultural forged pieces perpetuate the industry. now believe must also have been a piece patrimony for profits. Both are driven There are all manner of forgeries: fake by one of the artists mentioned in the by the desire of collectors to have some- ceramics, gold objects, wood carvings, book. They were anomalies because Ica thing ancient and the excuse of Western and textiles. Some are entirely new cre- had almost no crafts for sale, and these museums that the countries of origin ations; some are new ceramics created pieces were impressive in both price and can’t protect their heritage. It is true that from authentic old molds using clay quality. Sadly, I wasn’t tempted to buy many local museums are desperately from the original sources, then aged in one because the price was so much underfunded, but much of what disap- chicken manure; some are new designs higher than for the ceramic items in the pears from a country is driven by collec- carved from ancient wood or new wood markets in Lima. tors’ personal acquisitiveness. chemically aged; and some are all kinds It is a pity that so many of these forg- I worked briefly at a museum in Arica, of ancient broken bits and pieces glued eries are taken seriously. Bruhns and northern Chile, in 1991. The museum together to make something more attrac- Keller do a good job of explaining why. was filled with textiles from mummies tive to a collector. Where does restora- There is tremendous pressure and incen- from the surrounding area of the Ata - tion end and forgery begin? And who tive throughout the museum industry to cama Desert that were well preserved can blame the potters who are making pass off these fakes as genuine. The because it never rains there. In pre-Inca pots in the traditional way to support authenticators earn a percentage of the times, the local population wore lavishly their families? Dealers increase the value appraised value of an object when it is dyed and woven garments. (After the and profit mightily for themselves when sold, not a flat fee. Authentication is Inca conquest all the decorated textiles they pass the goods on to the eager col- often based on intuition, not science. were sent to Cuzco for the emperor, and lector. The potters sometimes know they Scientific technology, where available the locals had to wear undecorated plain- are being cheated by the dealers, that for dating, is expensive, cumbersome, weave garments.) Part of the local style their creations gain tremendous value often requires a bit of the item to be were some unusually constructed square after they leave their hands, but often destroyed for data, and can be fooled by hats. The director, Lilliana Ulloa, then at have no legal protection and need the the genuine bits in a pot that is a collage the University of Tarapaca, described money. If the potters sign their work, the of restored shards. Museums often don’t how the museum had been broken into identifying marks can be sanded off. Some artisans probably knowingly make want to know the number of forgeries in Carol Hayman is a professor of anthropology at forgeries, a practice that began at least as their collections, and looted pieces come Austin Community College. She takes students early as the conquest, when the Spanish with a dubious provenance. Curators are on a study abroad program to Lima, Peru, every clergy urged the natives to give up their unwilling to acknowledge fakes in their summer. idols. To avoid punishment for failing to collections because the public would

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lose faith in the museums, reputations authors also write that the “idea that well as the extreme diffusionists who wish would be tarnished, and donors would Spondylas was brought to southern Peru to prove that the Chinese, Welsh, or a lost stop donating. Bruhns and Keller also by shaman-traders is also ludicrous, given tribe of Israel reached the new world mention the somewhat racist idea that what is known about the structure of before Colum bus. It is an industry sup- “primitive” art isn’t real art anyway. exchange in ancient Peru” (157). Well, ported by the credulous. The book gives numerous references what is known about exchange back There is a companion volume on to art books and museum and auction then? Inquiring minds would like to Mesoamerica that is probably equally catalogs, but few are reproduced; perhaps know. enlightening. A final word of advice they were refused copyright permission. Faking the Ancient Andes will appeal to from the authors: “As you stare long- The index and references could be more readers of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER be - ingly at … the dazzling golden artifact extensive, and the book contains some cause the authors come down firmly on in the dealer’s window, stop and think omissions. For example, the authors say the side of science. In addition to the fine for a moment before you buy it. If it is that “there is a giant and rather hilarious art market, they offer a discussion of the authentic, you are as much a grave- literature on the supposed uses and “lunatic fringe of collectionism.” This robber as the huaquero who dug it up, beliefs surrounding mirrors” (p. 151), profitable market caters to the demand and if it’s not, then you are about to be but they don’t inform readers where to for artifacts showing humans, dinosaurs, swindled. Wouldn’t you really rather look for it for our amusement; the and extraterrestrials as contemporaries, as buy a nice Andy Warhol?” (17).

cess of natural selection (which entails Elegantly Explaining modifying the materials already present) with the process of building an airplane and Extolling Evolution from scratch. A notorious example of “bad design” offered by Dawkins is the JAMES CRISLER male urethra passing through the prostate gland, resulting in frequent The Greatest Show on Earth: The Evidence for Evolution. blockages. By Richard Dawkins. Free Press, 2009. 480 pp. What may be the most enlightening Hardcover, $30. chapter of the book is ironically titled “There Is Grandeur in This View of ichard Dawkins is known as ar - deniers in the United States, it is nice to Life,” after Charles Darwin’s lyrical guably the greatest living popular- see the scientific community at its best in crescendo. Dawkins dissects each line of izer of evolution. His magnum combating such myths. this peroration while further imprinting R the main concepts of evolution into the opus, The Selfish Gene, influenced a whole The greatest show on Earth is, without generation of scientists and freethinkers, a doubt, evolution. Dawkins entices the reader’s mind. Bits of this dissection while works such as The God Delusion are reader into subjects including genetics, include the irrelevance of morality to at the pinnacle of esteem for atheists who embryology, paleontology, anatomy, and evolutionary discussions, the lack of may be struggling to find their way out of molecular biology, explaining every com- need for an omnipotent designer, the the closet. monly held myth about evolution. descent of all living things from a single Dawkins’s newest book, appropriately Dawkins refers to evolution as a fact and ancestor, the fact that organisms are titled The Greatest Show on Earth, intro- playfully uses the word theorem, borrowed fixed to the environment, and the evolu- duces the concept of evolution to the from mathematics, in place of the seem- tion of evolvability. general public. With recent books such as ingly contentious word theory when refer- Dawkins notes that his book is not Jerry Coyne’s Why Evolution is True, ring to facts that no ordinary person only for evolution deniers but for all Daniel Loxton’s Evolution: How We and would deny, such as the theory of gravity. academics and nonacademics alike. It is All Living Things Came to Be, and Donald Dawkins discusses the complexity of also aimed at those who could use more Prothero’s Evolution: What the Fossils Say Richard Lenski’s research; almost every thought-provoking material with which and Why It Matters, it seems almost a rite major mechanism for adaptive evolu- to educate friends and family about the of passage to communicate the vast set of tionary change is demonstrated by marvels of evolution. Dawkins does not disappoint. I highly recommend The ideas and evidence about evolution to the Lenski’s work in building phylogenetic public in simple, comprehensible terms. trees through molecular genetics. Just as Greatest Show on Earth. Dawkins has his own “patterned” way of impressive is Dawkins’s case for “bad making even the most complicated con- design” in nature (the opposite of what James Crisler is a graduate student at Wichita cepts understandable. With the gut- you would expect from a benevolent State University. He conducts re search with wrenching over-abundance of evolution creator), in which he contrasts the pro - halophilic bacteria.

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tific glory, fame, and reputational immortality. Goodstein outlines the When Scientists Go Awry eleven steps leading to the pinnacle of PETER LAMAL the reward system. The authority structure involves power and influence. On Fact and Fraud: Cautionary Tales from the Front Lines of The first of the cases of alleged fraud Science. By David Goodstein. Princeton University Press, or misconduct Goodstein describes is New Jersey, 2010. ISBN: 978-0-691-13966-1. 168 pp. that of the physicist Robert A. Milli kan. Hardcover, $22.95. Millikan was accused of cheating with respect to data he published and then lying about it. At Caltech in the late 1980s, two ap - oncerns over the integrity, or lack he drew up, is included as an appendix. parently unrelated instances of re search thereof, of scientists periodically It is important to be aware that fraud misconduct in one of its biology laborato- Crise to the level of a public issue. in science, regardless of whatever other ries surfaced. In one instance, Vipin Ku - The continuing debate over global cli- negative connotations it may have, is a mar had faked a figure in one of his pub- mate change has included charges that violation of the scientific method. lished articles and also made misleading some scientists who have concluded that In almost all recent cases of scientific statements in another published article. human behavior is a significant cause of fraud, three motives have been present. Kumar was fired from his postdoctoral global warming have selectively presented Career pressure is a motivating factor. position. The other researcher, James Ur - only data and arguments that support Goodstein stumbles when he asserts that ban, disappeared from the scientific scene. their presuppositions. In the midst of that “all scientists at all levels, from fame to The high-profile case of virologists furor, a December 2009 Rasmussen Re - obscurity, are pretty much always under Robert Gallo and David Baltimore illus- ports poll found that 59 percent of career pressure” (p. 4). It seems that he is trates, Goodstein says, the poor attempt Americans think it is “somewhat likely” or unfamiliar with the many institutions of by the federal government to address sci- “very likely” that climate scientists have higher education at which, once tenure is entific misconduct. The question re - falsified data to fit their own opinions secured, many faculty feel no publishable garding Gallo was whether his lab had about global warming. (Subsequent inves- research pressure at all. In fact, at some wrongly claimed credit for discovering the tigations determined that the accusations institutions faculty are encouraged to AIDS virus. A colleague of Balti more was were unfounded [see SI, July/August focus on teaching and service and may accused by a postdoctoral student of falsi- 2010].) even be discouraged from spending time fying data that were published in an arti- In May 2010, the doctor who con- on research. And further on, Goodstein cle of which Baltimore was listed as one of vinced millions of parents worldwide acknowledges that faculty who do not the authors. But Baltimore himself was that a common vaccine for children have positions at research universities never charged with any wrong doing. could cause autism was barred from often opt out of research (22). Neither Gallo nor Baltimore was found practicing medicine in his native A second motive for fraud is “know- guilty of misconduct. Britain. The doctor’s peer-reviewed ing the answer,” which refers to those Many readers will doubtless recall the study in the respected journal The who think they know how the research media coverage of Martin Fleischmann Lancet was widely discredited when it would come out if it were actually done and Stanley Pons’s announcement in was found to be based on unethical properly; they decide that it is not nec- 1989 that they had induced nuclear behavior, and other studies found no essary to go to the trouble of doing it fusion reactions on their laboratory link between the vaccine and autism. properly. bench—cold fusion. Others raced to David Goodstein has been a profes- If a scientist believes that his or her replicate the achievement but could not sor of physics for more than forty years fraudulent research is very unlikely to be do so. Within a matter of months, the at the California Institute of Tech - repeated by others, this factor may moti- claim was discredited. Goodstein dis- nology, and in 1988 he became Caltech’s vate the scientist to submit it for publi- cusses whether Fleischmann and Pons vice provost. On Fact and Fraud focuses cation. Goodstein points out that stud- were guilty of scientific misconduct or primarily on cases in which Goodstein ies are seldom repeated by others, and in self-delusion. was involved during his career. Caltech’s biology exact reproducibility of results is Two cases of high-profile cheating in Policy on Research Miscon duct, which often thought impossible. physics, by Jan Hendrik Schon at Bell Peter Lamal is emeritus professor of psychology Two important components of the Labs and Victor Ninov at Lawrence at University of North Carolina–Charlotte and a scientific research enterprise are the Berkeley National Laboratory, conclude fellow of the Division of Behavior Analysis of the reward system and the authority struc- the examples of scientific cheating or American Psycho logical Association. ture. The reward system deals with scien- misconduct. Schon and Ninov were

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found to have published false data a covered high-temperature superconduc- act: faking or fabricating data or plagiar - number of times. tivity. Their discovery was first greeted ism” (132). The last case Goodstein considers is with some disbelief but then accepted This book is accessible to the general that of Karl Alexander Muller and J. when replicated by others. reading public, although some readers Georg Bednorz, who in 1986 were Goodstein says the “take-home les- may not be very interested in the working in a field about which most son in all of this is that scientific fraud descriptions of some subjects, like high- researchers had given up hope; they dis- consists of an explicit and well-defined temperature superconductivity.

wrote the popular underground book Sense and Goodness without God, in which The Meaning of Life I confront the meaning of life from a god- less perspective and advocate constant RICHARD CARRIER questioning, exploration, and answering of the big questions, from which Nygard’s The Nature of Existence. Roger Nygard, director. Roger film takes a cue. My book takes a scien- Nygard and Paul Tarantino, producers. Walking Shadows. tific and philosophical approach that is 93 minutes. systematic and comprehensive. Nygard’s film takes the ap proach most people actu- he Nature of Existence (whose that it doesn’t explore why anyone believes ally take: asking the self-proclaimed tagline is “Every mystery of what they assert in the movie (more on experts of different views what they think. Thuman existence . . . explained in that below), it’s evident from what is pre- That’s not to say that many actually travel one movie!”) is a new documentary by sented that most of these people (which the world to do this (as Nygard astonish- Roger Nygard, who brought us the means most people) pay little attention to ingly does—pay close attention to how charming documentaries Trekkies and evidence and logic when deciding what global this film is and ponder what it took Trekkies II (both of which I highly recom- the answers are. I also wanted to hear for Nygard to make it). But most people mend). He has a reputation for treating more about how he found and chose the do something similar, on a local level, via his subjects respectfully but with kind- people he interviewed. The collection is the Internet and multicultural reading. hearted humor, and he lives up to that surprising, ranging from Mormon sci-fi Their experience is likely to be as shallow reputation in this film. He traveled all author Orson Scott Card to unheard-of as this film. But like this film, there is a over the earth posing to wildly diverse gurus in India to nuclear physicists at great deal of depth under the surface people the question “What’s the meaning Oxford and wildly beyond. But clearly waiting to be explored. After you know of life?” along with various other ques- with so much to show, elements of back- other views are out there, you can never tions that came up, from the purpose of story had to be sacrificed. go back to thinking yours is the only way sex to the basis of morality. This film has Now the good: The Nature of Existence of thinking. pleased some and disappointed others. I is more intelligent than Religulous and And that’s this film’s biggest asset. can say that while it has its flaws, it also nicer than The God Who Wasn’t There with You will see and hear more opinions has its virtues and uses. dryer, kinder humor. It’s also more from more diverse people on the big First, the bad: I found his trek com- respectful of its subjects and their faiths questions of life than you likely ever pletely disorganized and random. Though (with some well-deserving exceptions). would have otherwise, even by copious after a second viewing (and rethinking This film is tailor-made to be enjoyed by reading. And most seem as sane (or as conversations I had with him when he believers as much as nonbelievers and crazy) as everyone else. You’ll often see interviewed me for the documentary a thus won’t please religion-bashers. Nygard yourself in these others who think few years ago) I realized that was partly lets people of a dozen different faiths sim- entirely different things. It will force you the point; what he found was completely ply speak for themselves without any to ask: are you just like them? If all these disorganized and random. The movie Michael Moore “gotcha” tactics, and he people are wrong (and because they dis- reflects humanity. Also, no conclusions leaves the audience to draw their own agree, almost all of them have to be), are drawn and no loose ends tied up. It’s a conclusions. Nygard captures the views of odds are, you are wrong too. So how do film without a resolution or any coherent religious fanatics, scientists, and even a theme other than the obvious: there is so seven-year-old girl. And not just Richard Carrier (www.richardcarrier.info) is an much overconfident disagreement on the Westerners—he travels to India and expert in Greco-Roman intellectual history, editor most fundamental issues of life that China, too. It’s a snapshot of humanity. emeritus of The Secular Web (www.infidels.org), humans clearly need to get a clue. I am quoted once in the film (very and author of Sense and Goodness without God: Though one major defect of the film is briefly). Nygard found me because I A Defense of Metaphysical Naturalism.

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you really know you’re the lone excep- something different. You thus need a do they believe that? I know he has tion, the only one who just happens to method that can tell the difference, and answers in the can (he has several hundred be right? That’s exactly the question you need to apply it. Nygard doesn’t do hours of footage that include answers to posed by The Chris tian Delusion, a new that. He just puts a mirror up to that very question). There is some addi- book from Pro metheus Books edited by humanity and reveals the problem. tional footage available on the film’s Web John Loftus (and to which I contributed Hence it’s a movie I would feel comfort- site (www.thenatureofexistence.com), two chapters), which came out just in able recommending to religious friends which may become extras in the eventual time for The Nature of Existence to prove and family. They won’t be put off by it. its point: you have to seriously question They’ll even like it. Yet it will haunt DVD release. But the movie doesn’t tackle whether you are that exception or just them for years. the why. Nygard says that if this film is another human in error. And you can’t After I saw the film, I asked Nygard successful, a sequel will explore that next answer that by simply asking experts why The Nature of Existence didn’t ask the level. For now, The Nature of Existence just what they think because they all think question I kept asking as I watched it: why looks in the window to see what’s there.

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

of ways that humans have found to deal with life. It was to promote the abundance of the uncertainties of life. Hope for an afterlife game, survival from illness, human fertility, is just one of those ways. Furthermore, noth- and later the fertility of the fields and the ingness isn’t a malady but a solution to a cooperation of the weather. In times when problem for many people: the problem of men lived at the mercy of nature, these things living a few more years without hope of were more important than what happens recovery from the torments of injury, disease, after death. Indeed, many primitive people or the ravages of old age. There is no reason have rituals to insure that the dead stay dead. to believe that religion’s promise of an after- The historically new religions such as life won’t one day be seen as an obstacle to Christianity and Islam used the idea of the solving the most pressing problem humans afterlife as a recruitment tool. Only the have ever faced: the problem of living in a adherents had a chance at a rewarding after- body for dozens of years beyond the point life; all others were to be punished in where life can be said to have any meaning. Hell. At the same time, Judaism also adopted The part of the article I found interest- some of these ideas, although the Jewish reli- ing was the part that discussed the various gion does not condemn all nonbelievers to physiological effects of positive socialization. Hell or reserve Heaven for believers alone. Again, however, the authors fail to establish Jerry Hershberg any necessary connection between these Torrance, California effects and religion. Our Brains and Beliefs Bob Carroll McGuire and Tiger summarized the evolu- I enjoyed the interesting but poorly argued Davis, California piece by Michael McGuire and Lionel Tiger tionary pressures that maintain religious belief on why religion endures (“Brain Science, in the absence of empirical evidence. God Science,” SI, May/June 2010). (I leave I agree with the authors’ basic notion that the However, they also unwittingly illustrated the aside their speculations as evolutionary psy- success of religion is closely related to the orga- primacy of belief over rationality in their fail- chologists regarding both the origin of reli- nization and chemistry of the human brain. ure to apply this reasoning to their preferred gion and the nature of the brain.) According But I take issue with the notion that religion is religious belief, atheism. As they noted, evi- to them, religion will endure “as long as life the result of the fear of death and the desire for dence of belief in deities and an afterlife dates generates problems” because religion pro- an afterlife. back at least 70,000 years. Far from being vides answers and relief to problems. This Many western classical religions such as comforting, however, the anthropological would make sense only if there were some those of the Greeks and Romans, and even record suggests that those beliefs were an problems that must be resolved and if reli- Middle Eastern religions such as ancient oppressive system for enforcing cultural mores gion were the only way to resolve them. The Judaism, did not emphasize the afterlife. To through irrational fear of powerful gods and only problems the authors discuss that seem them the dead descended into Tartarus or the uncertainly of a terrifying afterlife. Tribal remotely related to the category of “problems she’ol and lived a dreary, uneventful exis- people throughout Asia, Africa, the Americas, that must be resolved” are what they call “the tence—not something that anyone would and the Pacific feared punishment from the malady of nothingness” and the problem of desire. Nor did early forms of these religions gods or spirits of the dead. living with uncertainty. The only unique promise the average person a rewarding To free humans from that fear and oppres- thing religion offers as a solution to these life after death. These ideas developed toward sion, the Greek philosopher Epicurus promul- problems is the promise of an afterlife. the height of the Roman Empire and got their gated a contrary religious belief, atheism, The authors don’t prove that the promise greatest impetus with the birth of Christianity. based on the materialism of Democritus. of an afterlife is the only way to resolve these The original purpose of superstition and Lucre tius de scribed Epicurus as a benefactor problems. How could they? There are dozens religious ritual was to ensure survival in this of humanity who freed us from fear of gods

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and an afterlife by reassuring us of benign psychologist and the author of a book on which it is not our place to try to produce here. annihilation at death. Wishful thinking and evolutionary psychology, I think McGuire However, it is precisely this range and in - intolerance of ambiguity led the Greeks to and Tiger have missed the point on what our tensity that provide us a sense of justification for em brace materialism and atheism, which re - brain does. We have evolved a symbolic the approach we took in “Brain Science, God duced nature to comfortingly inanimate brain that produces symbolic models to Science.” This approach was to suggest a way of chemical reactions. understand ourselves and the world we live in understanding an array of religious and reli- Embracing either theism or atheism in the ... now and thousands of years ago. Evolution gious-like behavior grounded in new neuro- absence of empirical evidence is equally the has seen fit to tie our beliefs to our emotions physiological data and the possible interpreta- result of our fear of ambiguity and uncertainty and our emotions to our bodily functions. tions these data may support. and is an emotional rather than rational choice. That’s why the placebo and nocebo effects The answers proposed will never cause con- tented stillness in the chapel or evaporation of Bruce Greyson influenced our health even before modern the chapels themselves. But at least there may be Carlson Prof. of Psychiatry and medicine arrived. This was just as important as a sturdier-than-ever factual basis for approach- Neurobehavioral Sciences lessening our anxiety. Religion certainly played ing such a massive and influential matter as Director, Division of Perceptual and still plays an important role in our lives what people and societies conclude about the Studies since medicine can’t control death and our limits of reality, the geography of mortality, and University of Virginia Health models are not sufficient to understand it. But what the organic brain does amid all this. It’s System we keep trying! neither easy nor necessary to take sides in favor Charlottesville, Virginia Herman Kagan of one or another facet of an intricate prism, Ventura, California and we didn’t want to do that. How ever, sacred buildings and stories and their doubtful and “Brain Science, God Science” leaves me, irritated critics all exist and even co-exist color- ahem, skeptical. The authors suggest that reli- I found the article “Brain Science, God fully, often with massive impact. Of this we gion is inevitable because it has necessary Science” by Michael McGuire and Lionel sought to be accountants, not judges. stress-reducing properties. But some features Tiger fascinating. of a pseudoscientific approach appear in the The part that I question is the statement, development of the theory, which is not pre- “a god or some equivalent is a product of the Comets and Mammoths sented as what it is: speculation about a normal human brain.” I can only infer from vaguely defined question. Positive statements this that my brain is not “normal.” I suppose I wish to expand on David Morrison’s excel- (“like it or not, the brain will continue to I can take solace in the fact that nearly 94 lent special report (SI, May/June 2010) on secrete religion as long as life generates prob- percent of those who do the heavy lifting in the widely publicized claim that a huge bro- lems”) suggest a level of certainty inappropri- the brains department, the National Acad - ken-up comet collided with Earth just ate for this more or less “sitting-around-the- emy of Sciences, are also missing a normal 13,000 years ago, wiping out mammoths, cider-barrel” discussion. The generality of the brain. Perhaps a study of these “abnormal” Clovis culture, and so on. As he explains, this conclusion is in no way supported by the brains and why they function as they do poorly supported, speculative scenario is built loose connections made among seeing famil- might be productive. upon an earlier pseudoscientific trade book iar faces at services, oxytocin, “the factor of by the lead author of the original Proceedings predictability,” and the persistence of religious Charlie Sitzes of the National Academy of Sciences paper. belief. Scientific élan is added with liberal dis- Bloomington, Indiana I wish to add that PBS televised, in spring cussion of brain physiology, hormones, and 2009, an hour-long episode of NOVA sup- archaeological data, none of which can be tied porting this incredible hypothesis. Shock - to the premise by any ex perimental results. The May/June 2010 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER ingly, this program has since been awarded In fact, it could be argued that religious discusses the pervasiveness of belief in a god. the top prize for a TV science documentary by belief and its attendant practice are often This should not surprise us. Generations the American Association for the Advance - causes of stress, as when there are persecu- ago, Kurt Gödel used mathematical symbols ment of Science (AAAS) at its annual meeting tions or a particular cult or sect makes to demonstrate that every coherent system of in February 2010. Mark Boslough, whose unusual demands on its followers—a con- statements relies on at least one unprovable sidebar accompanies Mor rison’s article, cept that the article fails to address. I wish assumption. appears on the NOVA program as the lone the authors had adopted a lighter tone. Moreover, for us rational humans to make sense of the world, we need to make that skeptic. Most of this flashy show touts the Paul Bedard assumption—it is a requirement. The reli- untenable arguments described by Morrison Port Huron, Michigan gious among us call that assumption “God.” and purports to show that new evidence from Greenland supports the story. Geoffrey Milos The normal course of science didn’t lead to While the authors tried to hit the subject ball [email protected] Greenland. Instead, NOVA actually funded out of the park, I would call it only a double. the expedition to Greenland, a questionable First of all, they seem to believe that the Michael McGuire and Lionel Tiger respond: journalistic practice. I have seen a manuscript brain instinctively creates God or an equiva- submitted to the AAAS journal, Science, lent. This is close to Dean Hamer’s concept We are grateful for the thoughtful, often angu- which the authors hoped would be published of a “God Gene.” However, he admits that lar, and always appropriate responses to our simultaneously with the NOVA broadcast. some of the most spiritual people he inter- article. In fairness, the zest and variety of com- Indeed, the NOVA producer coauthored the viewed didn’t believe in a deity at all. As a ments compel a reply longer than the original, would-be Science paper, seemingly inconsis-

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tent with requirements that coauthors actually impact frequency suggested that only about what astronomers know about our planet’s cos- are researchers. The article never appeared in one super-Tunguska could be expected to hit mic environment or geologists’ understanding of Science, perhaps because it was submitted too Earth in the past 13,000 years. The chance Earth’s recent impact history. This is not just late for the usual refereeing and publication of two such extremely unlikely swarm improbable; in common usage we would have to processes to meet NOVA’s broadcast schedule. impacts happening within the past few thou- call it impossible. Nor has the Greenland paper been published sand years is worse than negligible.” A new twist on the YD impact story is a paper in any peer-reviewed scientific journal during If he meant, as it seems, that given that published in Geophysical Research Letters by the subsequent year. Tunguska indeed happened, the chance that Andrew Scott and colleagues suggesting an alter- It is a travesty that the AAAS has given another such event happened (to form the native explanation for the tiny carbonaceous this unpublished work such a prestigious Carolina Bays) within geologically recent spherules that have been cited as evidence for the award. Such august scientific institutions as history is therefore really small, then I must YD impact. Scott’s team found that these NOVA, AAAS, and the National Academy take issue. Assuming that the impact proba- spherules from the YD boundary are indistin- have been drawn into a race to the bottom bilities in two different years are indepen- guishable from lightly charred fungal sclerota and that has been a trend for some time on cable dent, the probability of two such events in a “fecal pellets, probably from termites.” This channels and other popular science media. It few thousand years is indeed very, very low, hypothesis is described by Richard Kerr in Sci - is sensational, controversial, and increasingly but the probability of two such events— ence (June 17, 2010) under the headline pseudoscientific topics that raise the ratings given that one event (Tunguska) occurs in “Mammoth-Killer Nothing More Than Fungus and readerships. Whether the hyped research that period—is about the same as the uncon- and Bug Poop.” Of course, this interpretation has is likely to be correct, was done by unim- ditional probability of a single event. That is, not been independently verified, but it does peachable researchers, was critically evalu- Tunguska does not “protect” us from imme- appear in a peer-reviewed journal. ated before publication by other experts, and diate future impacts. was actually published in a reputable journal Paul Hilfinger all fall by the wayside. Department of Electrical When Scientists Change Though I am a fellow of the AAAS, my Engineering and Computer complaint about a process that could make Their Minds Sciences such an award was ignored until I insisted on University of California, Berkeley an answer. The relevant AAAS official then Regarding my short piece “When Scientists replied that the award is made by strictly Actually Change Their Minds,” accompanying David Morrison responds: independent committees of scientists and David Morrison’s special report on cosmic im - journalists. The AAAS plays no role. Yet pacts and mammoths (SI, May/June 2010): Clark Chapman’s account of the AAAS prize some entity must appoint the committees Another significant new development has given to a NOVA documentary that provided and establish criteria. As newspapers, maga- caused Wallace Broecker to rethink his posi- uncritical support for the speculative YD impact zines, and TV networks increasingly sideline tion . . . again. A recent paper in the journal hypothesis is indeed disturbing. As for the NOVA many of the best science journalists in the Nature reports evidence for the late ice-age show itself, it is consistent with a trend in all nation, one wonders if enough remain to flood of meltwater he had postulated as the media to emphasize form over function, even serve on such a committee. Younger Dryas trigger event. Broecker didn’t when discussing scientific discoveries. Considered I fear that we are entering a Dark Age in see evidence when he flew over the area drama, the show was highly successful, illustrat- the reporting and communication of rational because he was looking in the wrong ing science in action in the spectacular environ- science, which bodes ill for scientific literacy place. The floodwaters appear to have gone ment of the Greenland icecap. The scientists of the next generation of Americans. This is the opposite direction from what he had brave cold and potential danger to collect data, not news to readers of SI, but the AAAS expected. Instead of pouring down the St. and when the lead scientist finds what he was award to NOVA’s portrayal of the putative Lawrence River into the North Atlantic, the looking for, he tears up on camera. In effect, this Younger Dryas comet impact shows that the new evidence suggests that the flood fol- is “reality TV” brought to a science program. trend is accelerating and has penetrated some lowed the Mackenzie River into the Arctic. Such a documentary may well increase public of the most respected institutions of science. Broecker is quoted in a Nature news story as interest in science and inspire students to seek sci- saying that the flood “would solve a big Clark R. Chapman ence careers. The only thing wrong was the sci- problem if it actually happened.” The best Senior Scientist ence itself, which was at best problematic and scientists follow the evidence wherever it Dept. of Space Studies probably simply wrong. leads them, and sometimes it turns out to be Southwest Research Institute Paul Hilfinger correctly criticizes my con- back where they started. Boulder, Colorado densed discussion of impact probabilities. The [email protected] point I intended to make was that a Tunguska- Mark Boslough type event is seen on Earth only once every few Albuquerque, New Mexico centuries, and a super-Tunguska (large enough I read with interest David Morrison’s discus- to form a shallow crater) is expected no more sion of the YD impact hypothesis but did than once in the past 13,000 years. In contrast, Winter of Our Discontent stumble a bit over one computation. In com- these authors suggest one and perhaps two multi- menting on Richard Firestone’s suggestion ple impact events (the Carolina Bays and the YD Opening the May/June 2010 issue of SI, I that the Carolina Bays formation might have impact), each of them involving tens of thou- was astounded to find the following state- been created by a Tunguska-like event, sands of super-Tunguskas. Such huge swarms of ment concerning global warming in Ken - Morrison writes, “But calculation of average super-Tunguska impacts are inconsistent with drick Frazier’s otherwise informative “From

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the Editor” column: “Globally 2009 was . .. ~0.025°C, which is the reason for stating that letter to the editor. In the May/June 2010 only a fraction of a percent cooler than the these five years are tied for second warmest. issue, Ilkka Pyysiäinen’s article, “How Reli - warmest year, 2005.” By the way, data show that 2010 is well on its gion Resists the Challenge of Science,” iden- Expressing a temperature change as a per- way to becoming even warmer than 2009 (and tifies three cultural biases that keep us believ- centage is of course completely without mean- 1998 and any of those other years mentioned). ing. George Anhang’s letter concerning ing—the value of the percentage change corre- “Maher’s Ludicrous Comment” illustrates two sponding to a given temperature change will of those three biases. Maher, referring to 9/11 depend on the zero of the temperature scale in and our retaliation, claimed lobbing missiles use (Celsius or Fahrenheit, for example). Self- Bogus Bomb Detectors from 2,000 miles away was cowardly; staying styled global warming skeptics might legiti- in the plane as it hit the building was not. mately point out that on the Kelvin scale of The dowsing-rod–like bomb detectors used These are “un-American” sentiments and temperature (i.e., relative to absolute zero, the in Iraq and elsewhere (News and Comment, thus condemned by conformist bias. ABC only really meaningful zero in such matters) SI, May/June 2010) do work to a certain cancelling Maher is a perfect case of “punish- the global change of some 0.6 degrees C over extent, or they did until they were “ex posed.” ing for fear of being punished for not punishing.” the last thirty to thirty-five years is itself only a Remember, the horse Clever Hans really could Stripped of “us versus them” context, Maher is fraction of a percent of 288 K, the mean tem- correctly answer some arithmetical ques- correct. No courage is required to launch a perature of the planet. tions. You noted that the devices are “sensitive missile. We do not praise Wernher von This is not a trivial distinction; it is funda- to the subconscious hand movements of the Braun’s courage for raining V-2’s on London. mental to all informed understanding of cli- operator.” Operators could be responding sub- The whole purpose of Maher’s show was to mate change. On the very day I received the consciously to body-language cues of nervous- get us beyond the politically correct words to issue in question I came across Georg Hoff - ness of those carrying bombs and fearful of see the reality of the human condition. In mann’s demolition of Claude Allègre’s The Cli - detection. There is another possible mecha- this case he simply overstepped by skewering mate Imposture on www.realclimate.org. In this nism: operators could be responding quite two cows that American conformist bias holds book the former French minister demonstrates consciously and deliberately by pointing the absolutely sacred: the evil of the 9/11 perpe- to his own satisfaction that anthropogenic device at those they believe to be carrying trators and the bravery of all American global warming is hogwash. Among his num- bombs, perhaps with good cause, and yet still troops, no matter what they might be doing. berless absurdities, Allègre ridicules the claim fend off accusations of bias or profiling by Thanks to Ilkka Pyysiäinen we can see that in a certain period “. . . the global mean attributing the response to the device. And a clearly the cultural mechanisms at work. temperature rose by 0.6%.” device costing tens of thousands of dollars is Robert D. Veitch Hoffmann politely lets this go as a typo; more believed in, and therefore works better, Minneapolis, Minnesota after all, Allègre may have meant the 0.6 than a tree branch. degrees C figure mentioned above. True be - Howard J. Wilk lievers in the Big Bad Global Warming Con - Philadelphia, Pennsylvania spiracy are not so polite and will not hesitate to jump on similar errors in publications like SI, especially in cases like this where the word percent was actually spelled out. Faith and the 9/11 Perpetrators The letters column is a forum on mat - John Eades ters raised in previous issues. Letters [email protected] should be no longer than 225 words. Much has been studied and said of Sep tem - Due to the volume of letters we ber 11, including “Bill Maher: Crank and Kendrick Frazier responds: receive, not all can be published. Comic” (SI, November/December 2009) Send letters as e-mail text (not and George Anhang’s letter (“Maher’s Ludi - attachments) to letters@csicop. org. Touché. I should have said fraction of a crous Comment,” SI, May/June 2010). In the subject line, provide an infor- degree—although I picked up that “fraction of Sam Harris firmly posits: “The men who mative identi fication, e.g.: “Letter on a percent” phrase from the text of a NASA pod- committed the atrocities of September 11 Jones evolution art icle.” In clude your cast about data then just released by NASA’s were certainly not ‘cowards,’ as they were re - name and ad dress at the end of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, “2009 letter. You may also mail your letter Global Temperature Package: Year Tied as peatedly described in the Western media, nor to the editor to 944 Deer Dr. NE, Second Hottest,” January 28, 2010. were they lunatics in any ordinary sense. They Albuquerque, NM 87122, or fax it to Here, from an online paper at that same were men of faith—perfect faith, as it turns 505-828-2080. time, is how noted NASA-GISS climate scientist out—and this, it must finally be acknowl- James Hansen and four colleagues put the matter: edged, is a terrible thing to be” (The End of Faith: Religion, Terror, and the Future of Check us out on Figure 1a shows 2009 as the second warmest Reason, 2004, p. 67). year, but it is so close to 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, and 2007 that we must declare these David W. Alspaugh years as being in a virtual tie as the second Three Lakes, Wisconsin warmest year. The maximum difference We have a Cause and a Fan Page: among these in the GISS analysis is ~0.03°C Cause: Committee for Skeptical Inquiry/ (2009 being the warmest among those years SKEPTICAL INQUIRER magazine and 2006 the coolest). This range is approxi- The SKEPTICAL INquIRER sometimes rewards Fan Page: SKEPTICAL INQUIRER mately equal to our 1‐sigma uncertainty of us with articles that are then illustrated in a

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER September / October 2010 65 SI Sept/Oct pgs_SI MJ 2010 7/29/10 10:17 AM Page 66

THE LAST LAUGH BENJAMIN RADFORD, Editor

Famous Anniversaries HIDDEN MESSAGES by Dave Thomas in Skeptic History The following letters are a simple substitution cipher. If R stands for L, it will do Sixty-three Years Ago: so everywhere. Solution is by trial and error. Hint: Look for patterns in words; for example, the scrambled phrase “JRXJ JRQ” might represent “THAT THE.” The Modern UFO Craze Kicks In

PUZZLE In Tacoma, Washington, during the summer of 1947, boaters Harold Dahl and Fred Crisman claim to have spotted a number of hovering “G NGKHFRKH HADKI CIDCOI ZAD VXDZ KD doughnut-shaped UFOs, which drop metallic debris that kills Mr. Dahl’s dog, damages his boat, and injures his son’s arm. Luckily Mr. Dahl takes ZIOO ZAUH YDN ZUXHK HAIQ HD ND MIEURKI G a picture of the spacecraft, but after an unpleasant and threatening encounter with some “men in black,” Mr. Dahl reports that the photo- XDHGEI GH UOZUBK EDGXEGNIK ZGHA HAIGF graph is useless because it shows too little “doughnut” and too much “hole.” Mr. Dahl’s son recovered nicely from his arm injuries. A couple of days later, Kenneth Arnold claims to have observed sev- DZX NIKGFIK.” eral unexplained aircraft around Yakima, Wash ington, which he accu- rately and unequivocally describes as “saucer-shaped,” “disk-shaped,” —KRKUX M. UXHADXB “pie-pan shaped,” “bat-shaped,” “a pie plate” or “pie plate cut in half,” CLUE: V = K “flat,” “saucer-like,” “flopping like fish,” “crescent-shaped,” and on and on to an impatient reporter who eventually condenses it to the now-

PREVIOUS PUZZLE SOLUTION (MAY/JUNE 2010): “I AM AGAINST RELIGION BECAUSE famous “flying saucer” so he can squeeze the rambling story into his IT TEACHES US TO BE SATISFIED WITH NOT UNDERSTANDING THE WORLD.” daily column.

— RICHARD DAWKINS Thirty-eight Years Ago: Therapeutic Touch SUPER-SECRET WORD: Strangled (Instructions: www.nmsr.org/secretword.htm) Is Discovered Out of Thin Energy In the early 1970s, nurse Dolores Krie ger, along with professional theosophist Dora Kunz, discovers she can cure patients by using her Hidden Messages Puzzle Contest energized, magical hands to manipulate her patients’ “human energy Submit your solution by e-mail to [email protected] field,” which after thirty-seven years is still undetectable by the primitive or via postal mail to: Benjamin Radford, The Last Laugh, P.O. Box 3016, instruments of modern science. After a few false starts, including the Corrales, NM 87048. Winner will be chosen at random from the first three unfortunate roasting of a patient’s liver, she eventually perfects the tech- correct submissions received by both e-mail and postal mail. nique. Thanks to her first book Therapeutic Touch: How to Use Your Hands to Help or to Heal or to Create Curative Shadow Puppets and her This issue's prize is a copy of the new Charles Darwin film Creation, starring Paul perseverance, in combination with the public’s insistence in its inalien- Bettany and Jennifer Connelly, now available on DVD from Lions Gate Films. able right “not to know,” TT is now practiced in hundreds of hospitals, taught in many medical schools, and is effective against scores of con- May/June 2010 Hidden Messages ditions and illnesses caused by the obstruction of the free flow of the Puzzle Contest Winner: Steve Mattison elusive energy field permeating the human body. – Paul DesOrmeaux

xkcd “Psychic” www.xkcd.com

66 Volume 34, Issue 5 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER SI Sept/Oct pgs_SI MJ 2010 7/22/10 4:43 PM Page 67

Gary Bauslaugh, editor, Humanist Perspectives, Victoria, B.C., Canada Gerald Goldin, mathematician, Rutgers University, New Jersey Mental Health Services, Los Angeles Richard E. Berendzen, astronomer, Washington, D.C. Donald Goldsmith, astronomer; president, Interstellar Media Matthew C. Nisbet, assistant professor, School of Communication, Martin Bridgstock, Senior Lecturer, School of Science, Griffith Alan Hale, astronomer, Southwest Institute for Space Research, American University University, Brisbane, Australia Alamogordo, New Mexico John W. Patterson, professor of materials science and en - Richard Busch, magician/mentalist, Pittsburgh, Penn. Clyde F. Herreid, professor of biology, SUNY, Buffalo gineering, Iowa State University Shawn Carlson, Society for Amateur Scientists, East Greenwich, RI Terence M. Hines, professor of psychology, Pace University, James R. Pomerantz, professor of psychology, Rice University Roger B. Culver, professor of astronomy, Colorado State Univ. Pleasantville, N.Y. Gary P. Posner, M.D., Tampa, Fla. Felix Ares de Blas, professor of computer science, University of Michael Hutchinson, author; SKEPTICAL INQUIRER representative, Daisie Radner, professor of philosophy, SUNY, Buffalo Basque, San Sebastian, Spain Europe Robert H. Romer, professor of physics, Amherst College Sid Deutsch, engineering consultant, Sarasota, Fla. Philip A. Ianna, assoc. professor of astronomy, Univ. of Virginia Karl Sabbagh, journalist, Richmond, Surrey, England J. Dommanget, astronomer, Royale Observatory, Brussels, Belgium William Jarvis, professor of health promotion and public health, Robert J. Samp, assistant professor of education and medicine, Nahum J. Duker, assistant professor of pathology, Temple Loma Linda Uni versity, School of Public Health University of Wisconsin-Madison University I.W. Kelly, professor of psychology, University of Saskatchewan Steven D. Schafersman, asst. professor of geology, Miami Univ., Ohio Taner Edis, Division of Science/Physics Truman State Univ ersity Richard H. Lange, M.D., Mohawk Valley Physician Health Plan, Chris Scott, statistician, London, England Barbara Eisenstadt, psychologist, educator, clinician, East Schenectady, N.Y. Stuart D. Scott, Jr., associate professor of anthropology, SUNY, Greenbush, N.Y. Gerald A. Larue, professor of biblical history and archaeology, Buffalo William Evans, professor of communication, Center for Creative Media University of So. California Erwin M. Segal, professor of psychology, SUNY, Buffalo Bryan Farha, professor of behavioral studies in education, William M. London, California State University, Los Angeles Carla Selby, anthropologist/archaeologist Oklahoma City Univ. Rebecca Long, nuclear engineer, president of Geor gia Council Steven N. Shore, professor and chair, Dept. of Physics John F. Fischer, forensic analyst, Orlando, Fla. Against Health Fraud, Atlanta, Ga. and Astronomy, Indiana Univ. South Bend Eileen Gambrill, professor of social welfare, University of Thomas R. McDonough, lecturer in engineering, Caltech, and SETI Waclaw Szybalski, professor, McArdle Laboratory, Univ ersity of California at Berkeley Coordinator of the Planetary Society Wisconsin–Madison Luis Alfonso Gámez, science journalist, Bilbao, Spain James E. McGaha, astronomer, USAF pilot (ret.) Sarah G. Thomason, professor of linguistics, University of Pittsburgh Sylvio Garattini, director, Mario Negri Pharma cology Institute, Chris Mooney, journalist, author, Washington correspondent, Tim Trachet, journalist and science writer, honorary chairman of Milan, Italy SEED Magazine SKEPP, Belgium Laurie Godfrey, anthropologist, University of Massachusetts Joel A. Moskowitz, director of medical psychiatry, Calabasas David Willey, physics instructor, University of Pittsburgh

United States Organizations ILLINOIS. Rational Examination Association of Lincoln Land mail: [email protected]. PO Box 282069, Columbus OH (REALL) Illinois. Bob Ladendorf, Chairman. Tel.: 217-546- 43228 US. South Shore Skeptics (SSS) Cleveland and ALABAMA. Alabama Skeptics, Alabama. Emory Kimbrough. 3475; e-mail: [email protected]. PO Box 20302, counties. Jim Kutz. Tel.: 440 942-5543; e-mail: jimkutz@ Tel.: 205-759-2624. 3550 Water melon Road, Apt. 28A, Springfield, IL 62708 US. www.reall.org. Northport, AL 35476 US. earthlink.net. PO Box 5083, Cleveland, OH 44101 US. KENTUCKY. Kentucky Assn. of Science Educators and Skep - www.southshoreskeptics.org/. Association for Rational ARIZONA. Tucson Skeptics Inc. Tucson, AZ. James Mc Gaha. E- tics (KASES) Kentucky. 880 Albany Road, Lexing ton, KY mail: [email protected]. 5100 N. Sabino Foot - Thought (ART) Cincinnati. Roy Auerbach, president. Tel: 40502. Contact Fred Bach at e-mail: fredwbach@ya 513-731-2774, e-mail: [email protected]. PO Box 12896, hills Dr., Tucson, AZ 85715 US. Phoenix Skeptics, Phoenix, AZ. hoo.com; Web site www.kases.org; or (859) 276-3343. Michael Stack pole, P.O. Box 60333, Phoenix, AZ 85082 US. Cin cinnati, OH 45212 US. www.cincinnati skeptics.org. LOUISIANA. Baton Rouge Proponents of Rational Inquiry and OREGON. Oregonians for Science and Reason (O4SR) CALIFORNIA. Sacramento Organization for Rational Think ing Scientific Methods (BR-PRISM) Louisiana. Marge Schroth. Oregon. Jeanine DeNoma, president. Tel.: (541) 745- (SORT) Sacramento, CA. Ray Spangen-burg, co-foun der. Tel.: Tel.: 225-766-4747. 425 Carriage Way, Baton Rouge, LA 916-978-0321; e-mail: [email protected]. PO Box 2215, 70808 US. 5026; e-mail: [email protected]; 39105 Military Rd., Carmichael, CA 95609-2215 US. http://home.comcast.net MICHIGAN. Great Lakes Skeptics (GLS) SE Michigan. Lorna J. Monmouth, OR 97361 US. Web site: www.04SR.org. /~kitray2/site/. Bay Area Skeptics (BAS) San Francisco— Simmons, Contact person. Tel.: 734-525-5731; e-mail: PENNSYLVANIA. Philadelphia Association for Critical Think - Bay Area. Tully McCarroll, Chair. Tel.: 415 927-1548; e-mail: [email protected]. 31710 Cowan Road, Apt. 103, West - ing (PhACT), much of Pennsylvania. Eric Krieg, Presi dent. [email protected]. PO Box 2443 Castro Valley, CA land, MI 48185-2366 US. Tri-Cities Skeptics, Michi gan. Tel.: 215-885-2089; e-mail: [email protected]. By mail 94546-0443 US. www.BASkeptics.org. Independent Investi - Gary Barker. Tel.: 517-799-4502; e-mail: [email protected]. C/O Ray Haupt 639 W. Ellet St., Philadelphia PA 19119. gations Group (IIG), Center for In quiry–West, 4773 Holly - 3596 Butternut St., Saginaw, MI 48604 US. TENNESSEE. Rationalists of East Tennessee, East Ten nessee. wood Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90027 Tel.; 323-666-9797 ext. MINNESOTA. St. Kloud Extraordinary Claim Psychic Teaching Carl Ledenbecker. Tel.: 865-982-8687; e-mail: Aletall@ 159; Web site:www.iigwest.com. Sacramento Skeptics Society, Investigating Community (SKEPTIC) St. Cloud, Minne - aol.com. 2123 Stony brook Rd., Louis ville, TN 37777 US. Sacramento. Terry Sandbek, Presi dent. 4300 Au burn Blvd. sota. Jerry Mertens. Tel.: 320-255-2138; e-mail: gmertens@ TEXAS. North Texas Skeptics NTS Dallas/Ft Worth area, John Suite 206, Sacramento CA 95841. Tel.: 916 489-1774. E- stcloudstate.edu. Jerry Mertens, Psychology Department, Blanton, Secretary. Tel.: 972-306-3187; e-mail: skeptic@nt mail: [email protected]. San Diego Asso ciation for Rational 720 4th Ave. S, St. Cloud State University, St. Cloud, MN skeptics.org. PO Box 111794, Carrollton, TX 75011-1794 US. Inquiry (SDARI) President: Paul Wenger. Tel.: 858-292-5635. 56301 US. www.ntskeptics.org. Program/general information 619-421-5844. Web site: www. MISSOURI. Skeptical Society of St. Louis (SSSL) St. Louis, VIRGINIA. Science & Reason, Hampton Rds., Virginia. sdari.org. Postal address: PO Box 623, La Jolla, CA 92038-0623. Missouri. Michael Blanford, President. E-mail: info@skep Lawrence Weinstein, Old Dominion Univ.-Physics Dept., COLORADO. The Denver Skeptics Meetup Group. Elaine ticalstl.org. 2729 Ann Ave., St. Louis, MO 63104 US. www. Norfolk, VA 23529 US. Gilman, President. Skype address: elaine.gilman. 965 S. skepticalstl.org. Miller Street, 302, Lakewood, CO 80226. Web site: http:// WASHINGTON. Society for Sensible Explan ations, Western NEVADA. Skeptics of Las Vegas, (SOLV) PO Box 531323, Washington. Tad Cook, Secre tary. E-mail: K7RA@ skeptics.meetup.com/131/. Henderson, NV 89053-1323. E-mail: rbanderson@skeptics arrl.net. PO Box 45792, Seattle, WA 98145-0792 US. CONNECTICUT. New England Skeptical Society (NESS) New lv.org. Web site: www.skepticslv.org./. England. Steven Novella M.D., President. Tel.: 203-281- NEW MEXICO. New Mexicans for Science and Reason http://seattleskeptics.org. 6277; e-mail: [email protected]. 64 Cobblestone Dr., (NMSR) New Mexico. David E. Thomas, President. Tel.: PUERTO RICO. Sociedad De Escépticos de Puerto Rico, Luis R. Hamden, CT 06518 US. www.theness.com. 505-869-9250; e-mail: nmsrdave @swcp.com. PO Box 1017, Ramos, President. 2505 Parque Terra Linda, Trujillo Alto, D.C./MARYLAND. National Capital Area Skeptics NCAS, Peralta, NM 87042 US. www.nmsr.org. Puerto Rico 00976. Tel: 787-396-2395; e-mail: Lramos@ Maryland, D.C., Virginia. D.W. “Chip” Denman. Tel.: 301- NEW YORK. New York Area Skeptics (NYASk) metropolitan NY escepticospr.com; Web site www.escepticor.com. 587-3827. e-mail: [email protected]. PO Box 8428, Silver Spring, area. Jeff Corey, President. 18 Woodland Street, Hunting - MD 20907-8428 US. http://www.ncas.org. ton, NY 11743, Tel: (631) 427-7262 e-mail: [email protected], FLORIDA. Tampa Bay Skeptics (TBS) Tampa Bay, Florida. Gary Web site: www.nyask.com. Inquiring Skeptics of Upper The organizations listed above have aims similar to Posner, Executive Director. Tel.: 813-849-7571; e-mail: New York (ISUNY) Upper New York. Michael Sofka, 8 those of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry but are [email protected]; 13014 N. Dale Mabry Hwy., Box 363 Providence St., Albany, NY 12203 US. Central New York independent and autonomous. Representatives of Tampa, FL 33618-2808. www.tampabayskeptics.org. The Skeptics (CNY Skeptics) Syracuse. Lisa Goodlin, President. these organizations cannot speak on behalf of CSI. James Randi Educational Foun dation. James Randi, Tel: (315) 446-3068; e-mail: [email protected], Web site: Please send updates to Barry Karr, P.O. Box 703, Director. Tel: (954)467-1112; e-mail [email protected]. 201 cnyskeptics.org 201 Milnor Ave., Syracuse, NY 13224 US. Amherst, New York 14226-0703. S.E. 12th St. (E. Davie Blvd.), Fort Lauderdale, FL 33316- OHIO. Central Ohioans for Rational Inquiry (CORI) Central 1815. Web site: www.randi.org. Ohio. Charlie Hazlett, President. Tel.: 614-878-2742; e-

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