Skeptical Inquirer THE MAGAZINE F O R SCIENCE AND REASON Volume 27, No. 1 • January / February 2003 How Not to lest Mediums Critiquing the Afterlife Experiments 4t, :,,., ,*"

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Beliefs on Trial and lift ifiiB.gc Pliny the Elder: the Standard of Credulist, Skeptic, Reasonableness or Both? S2HWARU. Pk.l. Placebos, Nocebos, Mark Twain Debunks and Chiropractic a Mesmerizer

Published by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION of Claims off the Paranormal AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNATIONAl (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) • AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Paul Kurtz. Chairman; professor emeritus of philosophy, State University of New York at Buffalo Barry Karr, Executive Director Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow Lee Nisbet. Special Projects Director FELLOWS James E. Alcock* psychologist, York Univ., Sciences, prof, of philosophy. University of Miami Loren Pankratz, psychologist. Oregon Health Toronto C E. M. Hansel, psychologist, Univ. of Wales Sciences Univ. Jerry Andrus, magician and inventor, Albany, Al Hibbs. scientist. Jet Propulsion Laboratory John Paulos, mathematician, Temple Univ. Oregon Douglas Hofstadter, professor of human Steven Pinker, cognitive scientist, MIT Marcia Angell, M.D., former editor-in-chief, New understanding and cognitive science, Massimo Polidoro, science writer, author, execu­ England Journal of Medicine Indiana Univ. tive director CICAP, Italy Robert A. Baker, psychologist, Univ. of Kentucky Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of Physics Milton Rosenberg, psychologist. Univ. of Stephen Barrett M.D , psychiatrist, author, con­ and professor of history of science, Harvard Chicago sumer advocate, Allentown, Pa. Univ. Wallace Sampson, M.D.. clinical professor of Barry Beyerstein,' biopsychologist, Simon Ray Hyman,' psychologist, Univ. of Oregon medicine, Stanford Univ., editor, Scientific Leon Jaroff, sciences editor emeritus, 77me Fraser Univ., Vancouver, B.C., Canada Review of Alternative Medicine Sergei Kapitza, former editor, Russian edition. Irving Biederman. psychologist. Univ. of Amardeo Sarma. engineer, head of dept Southern California Scientific American at T-Nova Deutsche Telekom, executive Susan Blackmore, Visiting Lecturer, Univ. of the Philip J. Klass,* aerospace writer, engineer director, GWUP, Germany. Lawrence M. Krauss, author and professor of West of England, Bristol Evry Schatzman, former president, French Henri Broch, physicist, Univ. of Nice, France physics and astronomy. Case Western Reserve Physics Association Jan Harold Brunvand, folklorist, professor University Eugenie Scott physical anthropologist, executive emeritus of English, Univ. of Utah Edwin C. Krupp. astronomer, director, Griffith director. National Center for Science Education Vern Bullough, professor of history, California Observatory Robert Sheaffer, science writer State Univ. at Northridge Paul Kurtz." chairman. Center for Inquiry Elie A. Shneour, biochemist, author, Mario Bunge, philosopher, McGill University Lawrence Kusche, science writer John R. Cole, anthropologist, editor. National Leon Lederman, emeritus director, Fermilab; director, Biosystems Research Institute, La Jolla, Calif. Center for Science Education Nobel laureate in physics Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey Hills, Frederick Crews, literary and cultural critic, pro­ Scott Lilienfeld, psychologist. Emory Univ. fessor emeritus of English, Univ. of California, Lin Zixin, former editor, Science and Technology N.S.W.. Australia Berkeley Daily (China) Robert Steiner, magician, author. F. H. C. Crick, biophysicist. Salk Inst, for Jere Lipps, Museum of Paleontology, Univ. of El Cerrito. Calif. Biological Studies, La Jolla, Calif; Nobel Prize California, Berkeley Victor J. Stenger, emeritus professor of physics laureate Elizabeth Loftus, professor of psychology, Univ. and astronomy, Univ. of Hawaii; Visiting fellow Richard Dawkins. zoologist. Oxford Univ. of Washington in philosophy, Univ. of Colorado Cornells de Jager. professor of astrophysics Paul MacCready, scientist/engineer, Jill Cornell Tarter, astronomer. SETi Institute, Univ. of Utrecht, the Netherlands AeroVironment, Inc.. Monrovia, Calif. Mountain View, Calif. Paul Edwards, philosopher, editor, Encyclopedia John Maddox, editor emeritus of Nature Carol Tavris, psychologist and author, Los of Philosophy David Marks, psychologist, Oty University, London. Angeles, Calif. Kenneth Feder, professor of anthropology. Mario Mendez-Acosta, journalist and David Thomas, physicist and mathematician, science writer, Mexico City, Mexico Central Connecticut State Univ. Peralta, New Mexico Marvin Minsky, professor of media arts and sci­ Antony Flew, philosopher, Reading Univ., U.K. Stephen Toulmin, professor of philosophy, Univ. ences, M.I.T. Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer. Foothill College, of Southern California David Morrison, space scientist, NASA Ames Los Altos Hills, Calif. Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist and director, Research Center Kendrick Frazier,* science writer, editor. Hayden Planetarium. New York City Richard A. Muller, professor of physics. Univ. of SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Marilyn vos Savant Parade magazine contribut­ Calif., Berkeley Yves Galifret, vice-president. Affiliated ing editor and CBS News correspondent H. Narasimhaiah. physicist, president. Bangalore Organizations: France Steven Weinberg, professor of physics and Science Forum, India Martin Gardner,* author, critic Dorothy Nelkin. sociologist. New York Univ. astronomy, Univ. of Texas at Austin; Nobel Prize Murray Gell-Mann. professor of physics, Santa Joe Nickell,* senior research fellow, CSICOP laureate Fe Institute; Nobel Prize laureate Lee Nisbet* philosopher, Medaille College Richard Wiseman, psychologist. University of Thomas Gilovich, psychologist, Cornell Univ Bill Nye, science educator and television host, Hertfordshire Henry Gordon, magician, columnist. Toronto Nye Labs Marvin Zelen, statistician. Harvard Univ. Saul Green, PhD, biochemist, president of ZOL James E. Oberg, science writer * Member. CSICOP Executive Council Consultants, New York. NY Irmgard Oepen. professor of medicine (retired), Susan Haack, Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts and Marburg. Germany (Affiliations given for identification only.)

Visit the CSICOP Web site at http://www.csicop.org

The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER (ISSN 0l°-4-6"30) is published bimonthly by the Committee for the Ankles, reports, reviews, and Icttcn published in the SKEJTKIAI INQUIRER represent the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal. 1310 Sweet Home Rd.. Amherst. NY view, and work of individual authors Their publication does not necessarily constitute an 14228. Printed in U s. V Periodicals postage paid at Buffalo. NY. Subscription prices: one year endorsement by CSICOP or its members unless so stated. (sue issues). $35; two yean. $60; three year-.. S84; single issue. $4,95. Canadian and foreign orders: Copyright ©2003 by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the laymcni in U.S. hinds drawn on a U.S. bank must accompany orders; please add USS10 per year Paranormal. .All rights reserved. The SKEFIICAI INQUIRER b available on 16mm microfilm. for shipping. Canadian and foreign customers are encouraged to use Visa or MasterCard. 35mm microfilm, and 105mm microfiche from Univcnity Microfilms International and is Inquiries from the media and the public about the work of the Committee should be made indexed in the Reader's Guide to Periodica) Literature. to Paul Kurtz. Chairman. CSICOP. Box 703. Amherst. NY U226-0703. Tel: ^16-636-1425. Subscnptions and changes of address should be addressed to. SKlMit.u INQUIRE*. Box FAX: 716-636-1733. 703. Amherst. NY' 14226-0703- Or call toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (outside U.S. call 716-636- Manuscripts, letters, books for review, and editorial inquiries should be addressed to Kendnck 1425). Old address as well as new are neccssarv for change of subscriber's address, with -.n Frazier. Editor. Swr-noAl INQUIRER. 944 Deer Drive NE, Albiiquctque, NM 87122. Fax 505- weeks advance notice. SKFPTKAI INQI 1RER subscribers mav not speak on behalf of CSICOP 828-2080. Before uibmitting any manuscript, please consult our Guide for Authors for format and or the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. references requirements, ti is on our Web site at http://wsvw'.csicop.c^si»'guidc-for-authors.html Postmaster Send changes of address to SKEPnCAl INQUIRER. Box ?03. Amherst. NY and on page 60 of this issue. Or you may send a (ax request to the editor. 14226-0-0 V Skeptical Inquirer COLUMNS EDITOR'S NOTE January/February 2003 • VOL 27, NO. 1 Death of the Afterlife Experiments? 4

NEWS AND COMMENT ARTICLES National Academy of Sciences Report Says Polygraph Testing Too Flawed for Security Screening / Sandia Tests MOLE 20 How Not to Test Mediums Detector, Finds Only Chance Performance / Pop Singer's Death Reveals Visits to New Age 'Miracle Worker' / Baraka Buys Critiquing the Afterlife Experiments Bunk: Furore Over Poet's Conspiracy Paranoia / Brain Site Professor Gary Schwartz makes revolutionary claims that he Located that Induces Illusory Out-of-Body Experiences 5 has provided competent scientific evidence for survival of INVESTIGATIVE FILES consciousness and—even more extraordinary—that medi­ Amityville: The Horror of It All ums can actually communicate with the dead. He is badly JOE NICKELL 13 mistaken. The research he presents is flawed, and in numer­ ous ways. Probably no other extended program in psychical THINKING ABOUT SCIENCE research deviates so much from accepted norms of scientific Causes and Correlations methodology as this one. MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI 15 RAY HYMAN NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD Don't Try This at Home 31 Beliefs on Trial, and the MASSIMO POLIDORO 17

Legality of Reasonableness NEW BOOKS 52 Ever thought about becoming a lawyer? Here's your chance to don a black robe and horsehair wig, and apply some SCIENCE BEST SELLERS 52

legal principles to skeptical inquiry. FORUM RICHARD M. FISHER Shattering the Crystal Sphere RALPH ESTLING 55 35 Placebos, Nocebos, and Chiropractic Adjustments FOLLOW-UP The Mars Effect Cannot Be Pinned on Cheating Parents Appropriate spinal manipulation provides both real and SUITBERT ERTEL 57 placebo benefits in the treatment of mechanical-type neck Response to Ertel and back problems. But chiropractic adjustments based on the vertebral subluxation theory may offer a placebo effect GEOFFREY DEAN 59 that is outweighed by a nocebo effect. GUIDE FOR AUTHORS 60 SAMUEL HOMOLA, D.C.

READERS FORUM 39 Pliny the Elder Can We Respond More Rationally to Terrorism? 61 Rampant Credulist, LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 64 Rational Skeptic, or Both? Pliny the Elders Natural History was the premier source of REVIEWS information about the natural world for fifteen hundred years. Yet it contains blatant absurdities. What does that The Oxford Companion to the Body Colin Blackmore and Sheila Jennett tell us about Pliny, and, perhaps, ourselves? ROBERT H. CORMACK. ROBERT HOLSON. KEN PAREJKO AND MARK C. SAMUELS 47

43 Unfazed: Mark Twain Debunks the Mesmerizer Mark Twain's career as a debunker of charlatans began earlier than most people realize. As a fifteen-year-old, American Exorcism: Expelling Demons m the Land of Plenty Twain's life-long skepticism was triggered by his encounter Michael Cuneo with a traveling mesmerizer. KEVIN CHRISTOPHER 48 GEORGE ENGLEBRETSEN Anatomy of a Life Possessed Maria Ferrara Petna JOSEPH P. SZIMHART 51 ABC's Primetime Examines the Amityville Horror Cover Stills from Dateline NBC November 17. 2000 KEVIN CHRISTOPHER 53 EDITOR'S NOTE Skeptical Inquirer THf MAGAZINE fOR SCIENCE AND REASON

EDITOR Kendrick Frazier Death of the Afterlife Experiments? EDtTORIAL BOARD James E. Alcock Barry Beyerstein very few years seems to bring a new set of "best case" claims of scientific Thomas Casten Martin Gardner Eevidence for psychic powers. The latest are the "afterlife" experiments by Ray Hyman Gary E. Schwartz, professor of psychology and psychiatry at the University of Lawrence Jones Philip J. Klass Arizona. In a series of experiments that began garnering publicity in 1997, Paul Kurtz Schwartz and coworkers have done what they contend are good scientific stud­ Joe Nickell Lee Nisbet ies of mediums such as John Edward. Schwartz's credentials as a Harvard- Amardeo Sarma Bela Scheiber trained professor and his position have lent seeming credibility to this work. Eugenie Scott He asserts mat this work supports the mediums' claims that they arc actually CONSULTING EDITORS Robert A. Baker communicating with the dead. Schwartz has collected tJiese studies in a new Susan J. Blackmore book, The Afterlife Experiments. John R. Cole Kenneth L. Feder C. E. M Hansel In this issue we present an audioritative, thorough, detailed evaluation of E. C. Krupp Schwartz's evidence by psychologist Ray Hyman. It is longer than most analyses Scott O. Lilienfeld David F. Marks we publish, but we felt the seriousness of both Schwartz's claims and of Hyman's James E. Oberg evaluations of them merit the extra space. The article is fascinating and instruc­ Robert Sheaffer David E. Thomas tive reading. Hyman, emeritus professor of psychology at die University of Richard Wiseman Oregon, has devoted more than half a century to the study of psychic readings MANAGING EDITOR Benjamin Radford and cold readings. He is arguably the most insightful, careful, and respected critic ART DIRECTOR of serious parapsychological claims. Lisa A. Hutter PRODUCTION Schwartz has made revolutionary claims diat he contends are backed up by Paul Loynes Christopher Fix competent scientific evidence. "This," says Hyman bluntly, "is badly mistaken. CARTOONIST Probably no other extended program in psychical research deviates so much from Rob Pudim WEB PAGE DESIGN accepted norms of scientific mediodology as diis one does." Patrick Fitzgerald, Designer Hyman describes eleven types of "major flaws" in Schwartz's research. Any Amanda Chesworth Kevin Christopher one "by itself would suffice to invalidate his experiments as acceptable evidence." Rob Beeston

These major flaws include inappropriate control comparisons, inadequate PUBLISHER'S REPRESENTATIVE precautions against fraud and sensory leakage, failure to use double-blind pro­ Barry Karr CORPORATE COUNSEL cedures, inadequate "blinding' in "single-blind experiments," failure to inde­ Brenton N. VerPloeg pendently check on facts the sitters endorsed as true, and so on. In addition to BUSINESS MANAGER Sandra Lesniak these defects in the conduct of the experiments and the gathering of the data, FISCAL OFFICER he finds other problems in the way Schwartz interprets and presents the results Paul Paulin CHIEF DEVELOPMENT OFFICER of his research, such as using inappropriate probability calculations, inflating Arthur Urrows significance levels, and reinterpreting failures as successes. DEVELOPMENT OFFICER James Kimberly Hyman also analyzes a fifth experiment that was conducted double-blind CHIEF DATA OFFICER but shows why Schwartz's claims about its "breathtaking" success don't stand Michael Cione STAFF up at all. "By commonly accepted scientific practice, die experiment has failed Darlene Banks to support the hypothesis it was planned to test." Patricia Beauchamp Jennifer Miller Hyman says die worst mistake Schwartz and his colleagues made was pub­ Heidi Shively Ranjit Sandhu lishing "their very inadequate studies" and demanding that skeptics "'explain Anthony Santa Lucia away' their defective data." By doing so, he says, diey, and the journals that John Sullivan Vance Vigrass published the work, have lost credibility. The studies are "methodologically PUBLIC RELATIONS DIRECTOR defective" in important ways, Hyman says, and as a result die claims have no Kevin Christopher YOUNG SKEPTICS PROGRAM DIRECTOR scientific validity. Amanda Chesworth INQUIRY MEDIA PRODUCTIONS Thomas Flynn DIRECTOR OF LIBRARIES Timothy S. Binga

The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is the official journal of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, an international organization.

4 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

National Academy of Sciences Report Says Polygraph Testing Too Flawed for Security Screening

KENDRICK FRAZIER committee that wrote the report and underpinning to polygraphy, and history professor of statistics and computer sci­ showing that convicted spies had passed A long-awaited report on polygraphs from ence at Carnegie Mellon University. polygraph tests while they had been the National Academy of Sciences says the "The belief in its accuracy goes beyond engaged in espionage. (See "Polygraphs U.S. Government should not rely on poly­ what the evidence suggests." and the National Labs: Dangerous Ruse graph examinations for screening employ­ Concerned about potential security Undermines National Security," Com­ ees to identify spies or other national secu­ violations at its national laboratories mentary by Alan P. Zelicoff, SKEPTICAL rity risks because the test results are too and criticized about congressionally INQUIRER, July/August 2001.) inaccurate when used this way. mandated plans to expand its polygraph The NAS committee said polygraph Much of the evidence assess­ testing rests on weak scientific ing the validity of polygraphs, underpinnings. And much of popularly called "lie detectors," the available evidence for judg­ is based on their use in the ing its validity lacks scientific investigation of specific, known rigor. "Almost a century of events such as crimes. In these research in scientific psychology cases, said the NAS committee, and physiology provides little lie-detector tests can differenti­ basis for the expectation that a ate lying from telling the truth polygraph test could have at rates well above chance, but extremely high accuracy," says they are far from perfect. the report. The report, issued at a news Using these tests in pre- conference at the Academy's employment screening is even headquarters in Washington more complicated because October 8, 2002 (www.nas. examiners make inferences edu), concludes that the poly- about individuals' future graph's accuracy is not good behavior based on information Stephen E. Fienberg. Professor of Statistics and Computer Science. Carnegie enough for security screening Mellon University. Pittsburgh, and Chair of the Committee to Review the about previous deeds, which for two reasons. First, accuracy Scientific Evidence on the Polygraph. may differ widely from the is almost certainly lower when the tests program, the U.S. Department of offenses authorities hope to prevent. are used this way rather than in the Energy asked the Academy to conduct a The committee concluded that poly­ investigation of specific incidents. study of the scientific validity and relia­ graph testing is less accurate for Second, the large groups of people bility of polygraph testing to identify employee screening than for investigat­ being checked include only a tiny per­ personnel who may jeopardize national ing specific incidents. centage of individuals who are guilty of security. Employees who work in sensi­ On a more basic level, theories the targeted offenses; tests that are sen­ tive positions at DOE labs and similar about how deception is linked to the sitive enough to spot most violators federal sites are subject to testing by law. physiological responses being measured will also mistakenly mark large num­ However, the new report says that when have not been verified, the report says. bers of innocent test takers as guilty. polygraph exams are used this way, the A variety of mental and physical fac­ Tests that produce few of these types drawbacks of current polygraph exams tors, such as anxiety about being tested, of errors, such as those currently used are abundantly dear. can affect polygraph results—making by several federal agencies, will not The proposed wider use of polygraphs the technique susceptible to error. Also, catch most major security violators— as a screening tool at the national labs people can learn ways to mimic some and still will incorrectly flag truthful became intensely controversial among physiological responses of truthful test people as deceptive. many labs scientists. They criticized die takers. This is a particular concern "National security is too important idea as highly damaging to morale due to when dealing with deceptive individu­ to be left to such a blunt instrument," the large false-positive rates in polygraph als who have strong incentives to per­ said Stephen E. Fienberg, chair of the exams, the lack of any serious scientific fect certain "countermeasures" or ploys

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2O03 S NEWS AND COMMENT to appear honest and avoid detection. developing a new polygraph program The MOLE programmable detec­ Available research sheds little light on over the ensuing several months. U.S. tion system, made by Global Technical how well examiners can systematically Senators Pete Domenici and Jeff Ltd. of Kent, United Kingdom, has a expose such people. Bingaman of New Mexico sponsored search handle with a radio-type Despite its weak science base, poly­ legislation in 2001 requiring DOE to antenna that can freely pivot. The graph testing is commonly believed to overhaul its polygraph program based product is advertised to operate using be a highly valid procedure for detect­ on the findings in the NAS report, static electricity only and requiring no ing lies. The report notes that popular which Bingaman had requested. It now batteries or other power sources. The culture and the mass media often por­ has six months to do so. Two of the antenna can be balanced to protrude in tray lie detectors as magical mind-read­ nation's three national laboratories with front of the operator but is free to ing machines. The mystique surround­ responsibilities for nuclear weapons are swing to either side with a slight tilt of ing the exams—instead of a solid scien­ located in New Mexico. the operator's hand. A positive indica­ tific foundation—may account for Bingaman and Domenici issued a tion is said to occur when the antenna much of their usefulness to authorities, joint statement after the report was pivots across the operator's body and the committee noted. Examiners' field released calling on DOE to "abolish its points toward the target material. reports and indirect scientific evidence current policy of using extensive poly­ Prior to operation a specific program­ indicate that testing programs may graph testing as a screening tool" for ming card designating the substance to deter potential security violators or DOE and national defense labs employ­ be searched for is inserted into a card­ elicit confessions from some offenders ees. Added Bingaman, Chairman of the holder clipped to the operator's belt. who, unaware of the tests' weaknesses, Energy and Natural Resources Com­ MOLE was brought to the attention believe that a lie detector would surely mittee, "From a practical standpoint, of NLECTC and subsequendy an offer to catch them. this policy never made sense to me. demonstrate the product was made. The The federal government relies heav­ Now we have scientific evidence that it NLECTC contacted Sandia for assistance ily on polygraph testing to identify peo­ doesn't work. It's time to change this in conducting a field test of MOLE. ple who have committed or might com­ flawed policy." Dale Murray of Sandia's Entry mit espionage and sabotage. However, Control and Contraband Detection Kendrick Frazier is Editor of the the report warns that overconfidence in Department was assigned to help design SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. this method may endanger national and conduct the field test. security objectives by creating a false Because the MOLE's detection capa­ sense of security among lawmakers, Sandia Tests MOLE bility is subject to human interaction government employees in sensitive jobs, Detector, Finds Only and interpretation, Sandia suggested and the general public. As a result, that the test should be "double blind." other ways to ensure safety could be Chance Performance This is a typical test approach used neglected, creating situations that when the outcome of trials is dependent might increase the risk of security The MOLE programmable detection on human influences or interpretation. lapses. Also, retention of highly skilled system, a device advertised for an ability The field test was conducted earlier and valuable government workers could to detect a variety of substances, includ­ this year at NLECTC's office in Denver. suffer because employees might fear ing explosives, has been tested in dou­ The test plan was designed to be sim­ being falsely identified as dishonest. ble-blind experiments by Sandia ple to implement but scientifically and The report says some potential alter­ National Laboratories and found to per­ statistically rigorous. natives to polygraphs show promise, form no better than random chance. Four cardboard boxes were labeled to but none has led to scientific break­ The tests were undertaken at the represent "heads" and "tails" of a coin throughs in lie detection. Moreover, the request of the Rocky Mountain office of toss (Box I labeled HH for heads-heads. federal government has not seriously the National Law Enforcement and Box 2 HT for heads-tails, etc.) This way, developed the science base of any Corrections Technology Center the box in which to place the target sub­ method to detect deception through the (NLECTC) in Denver. Sandia, a U.S. stance could be determined in a random analysis of individuals' psychological Department of Energy national labora­ fashion with two coin tosses. All this and physiological reactions. tory headquartered in Albuquerque, ensured that the location for each trial The study was sponsored by the New Mexico, is the technology partner would be truly random. Department of Energy, whose National for the center, which is a program As with any double-blind test, those Nuclear Security Administration said funded by the National Institute of administering the test were separated the agencies would "carefully review" Justice, the research arm of the U.S. from those being tested so that the the report and consider the findings in Department of Justice. testers could not subconsciously provide

6 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

nonverbal cues to indicate where the tar­ Twenty separate double-blind trials tion process," concludes Murray in the get material is located. were conducted. Following die tests, the Sandia report he authored, "Double- The four boxes were placed in die four participants reconvened to score the Blind Field Evaluation of the MOLE corners of a hall extending around the results. Programmable Detection System." The perimeter of the building's second floor. Since the target was in one of four full report is on an NLECTC Web page This allowed sufficient separation of die locations, by random selection alone it at: www. nlectc.org/vi rlib/TopicList.asp? boxes for unique identification and ample is expected that of the 20 trials, approx­ intTopicID=34. angular access to each (90 degrees) for tri- imately 5 selections would be the cor­ In follow-up discussions Balais angulation of positions, if necessary. rect location. Murray said the probabil­ expressed puzzlement at the low perfor­ For the demonstrations and tests ities, based on random chance, are that mance of MOLE in the tests. He sug­ approximately 20 grams of C4 explosive the three most likely results would be gested that perhaps the four cardboard were placed in a plastic bag, which was 5, 4, and 6 correct selections. Summing box containers had somehow all become tied shut and placed inside a plastic 35 probabilities, he said, shows that ran­ contaminated with explosive powder. mm film canister. Then the lid was domly selecting correct boxes between This seemed unlikely, but the boxes 3 and 7 times during a 20-trial test placed on the canister. A sales representa­ were all wrapped in clear plastic and sent would be expected to occur 81 percent tive, Robert Balais, showed how MOLE to Sandia for analysis with an ion mobil­ of the time. ity spectroscopy explosives detector worked, first searching for a shotgun shell capable of detecting less than a single and a small-caliber bullet. He stood sta­ However, if the product worked as fingerprint of explosive material. The tionary and die antenna moved, pointing advertised, he said, the number of cor­ results for all surfaces were negative. to the ammunition, in plain view of rectly identified boxes would be statisti­ This, says the Sandia report, rules out everyone. He did the same thing with the cally more significant, at least 12 to 13 correct "hits," or a little better than half. any possibility that contamination explosive material when it was in plain occurred during die test. view on die conference room table. He In fact, the test results showed that cor­ stated diat he had been better than 95 rect boxes had been selected only 6 The Sandia report notes diat MOLE percent accurate in locating and identify­ times, consistent with random chance. appears "physically nearly identical" to a ing substances widi MOLE. "Based on statistical analysis of the product Sandia examined in October He agreed to the planned test condi­ double-blind test results, the MOLE 1995 called die Quadro Tracker, then tions—having the explosive material performs no better than a random selec­ marketed by a South Carolina company. placed in one of the four cardboard boxes at die corners of the hall. First a baseline test was conducted, to Four cardboard boxes were labeled to represent heads and tails of a coin toss... This way. the box in which to place the target substance make sure die test parameters were agree­ could be determined in a random fashion with two coin tosses. All Mr. Reining's able to all. The target was placed in a box, this ensured that the location for each trial would be truly random. Office selected by dice dirow, in full view of every participant. Five baseline trails were conducted, and each time Balais used the -Box 3 Box 4 MOLE to point to the (known) box, even though he said he didn't need such prior knowledge. Such baseline trials are Conference considered essential to make sure any test problems are identified and corrected Room before die formal testing. With the baseline trial complete, he stated that die test parameters were acceptable and fair and said he had no trouble locating the targets. The participants then divided into two groups and proceeded to die dou­ I- Box 2 ble-blind phase of the testing. The Box 1 search group was not privy to die coin toss and placement of die target, and die placement group was not present for the actual search. Floof plan of the double-blind field test of MOLE detectc* carried out by Sandia National Labs.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2003 7 NEWS AND COMMENT

The visible physical differences between site to his version of the story. the two products appear to be the product A spokesman for the American labels and the handle-programming embassy in the capital city of chip—interchangeable on the Quadro Tegucigalpa said that Lopes "got into Tracker, permanently fixed on the the cultural-ethnic thing, and then into MOLE. Additional information on the this New Age, pan-African spirituality. Quadro Tracker can be located by per­ .. .There's a lot of strange things going forming a search on the World Wide Web on out there." using the key words Quadro and Tracker. —Benjamin Radford This article appeared originally in the Benjamin Radford is Managing Editor of Sandia Lab News, Sandia National the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico. —Kendrick Frazier Baraka Buys Bunk: Furore Over Poet's Pop Singer's Death Conspiracy Paranoia Reveals Visits to New Age 'Miracle Worker' Amiri Baraka, formerly LeRoi Jones, is a well-known American playwright, poet, In April 2002, when pop singer Lisa Lisa "Left Eye" Lopes. Tsunt/lmageDirect author, and activist, and one of the main "Left Eye" Lopes, of the successful R&B leaders and inspirations of the Black group TLC, died in a road accident in Anyone with cash is welcome to be Arts Movement. Honduras, it made international head­ healed of whatever ails them by Sebi and Baraka recently found himself the lines. The reason she was in the Central his unorthodox treatments: "Yes, we center of controversy after reading a American country, however, was less offer what you consider to be a miracle. poem titled "Somebody Blew Up well reported. We call it common sense. Electric body. America" at the September 19, 2002, Lopes was visiting a New Age health Electric therapy. With this method, dia­ Geraldine R. Dodge Poetry Festival in spa near Sambo Creek for one of her betes, leukemia, sickle cell, impotence, Stanhope, New Jersey. In it, he asks periodic "cleansing" treatments offered blindness, AIDS, and many, many oth­ who is responsible for a wide variety of by a man known as "Dr. Sebi." In addi­ ers have been cured or reversed." current and historical atrocities, tion to a strict diet of various medicinal Sebi claims to use the Bible as a including the September 11, 2001, ter­ plants and herbs, visitors to the Usha guide to healing. He subscribes, at least rorist attacks on the World Trade Herbal Research Institute practice yoga, in part, to the ancient belief that dis­ Center. One verse in particular incited meditate, and take mud baths. Lopes eases are caused by an imbalance in the outrage among several prominent had visited the facility regularly for body's four humors: yellow bile, black Jewish groups. The offending verses are years, and had recently purchased land bile, blood, and phlegm. It is this last as follows: nearby, planning to build a home there. substance that seems to have captured Who knew the World Trade Center Sebi, whose real name is Albert Sebi's imagination; he believes that all was gonna get bombed Baldwin (or Alfred Bowman, depending medical problems are caused by exces­ Who told 4,000 Israeli workers at the on the source), has no actual medical sive (or contaminated) mucus: "Every­ Twin Towers To stay home diat day training, though he claims on his Web thing is mucus, from AIDS to blind­ Why did Sharon stay away? site (www.sebithehealer.com) to be an ness is mucus in the system that needs "Intra-Cellular Therapist, Biochemist to be swept out." Apparently simply The verses allude to an anti-Semitic and Naturalist." Sebi claims that treat­ blowing one's nose is not sufficient to rumor that Israelis and Jews who worked ments such as his "African bio­ effect a cure; fasting and a diet of herbs at the World Trade Center knew about electric cell food dierapy" are effective are needed. die terrorist attacks beforehand, and were for "reconnecting die African widi the In 1997, Sebi was briefly arrested in absent from dieir jobs at the World Trade nutritional compounds designed by New York on charges of publishing false Center diat day. The rumor, circulated by nature for their maximum health." health claims and practicing medicine conspiracy dieorists and less-dian-profes- Though Lisa Lopes went to die vil­ without a license. Sebi does not deny the sional news agencies (such as Lebanon's lage for "deansings," many foreigners charge and in fact takes some measure of Al-Manar and Russia's Pravda), is base­ visit Sebi for his reputed miracle cures. pride in it, devoting a page on his Web less. It is often paired widi die assertion

S January/february 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT that Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad, writes Baraka, "is fundamentally an with an attempt to defend the claim of orchestrated the attacks. attempt to defame me. And with that, 4,000 Israeli/Jewish September 11 Interviewed by the North Jersey an attempt to repress and stigmatize absentees, citing, of all things, Michael News, Shai Goldstein, New Jersey direc­ independent thinkers everywhere. This Ruppert's conspiracy video. The Truth tor of the Anti-Defamation League trashy propaganda is characteristic of and Lies of 9-11: "It is the Green said, "Unfortunately, this lie, like so right-wing zealots who are interested Party's Ruppert who makes the most many others, has been reported on 60 only in slander and character assassina­ effective case for the 4,000 Israeli Minutes as being viewed as the truth in tion of those whose views or philoso­ workers (Not Jewish Workers!) but much of the Arab world. [Baraka's] phies differ from or are in contradic­ Israeli nationals. . . . statement goes to reinforce that lie and tion to theirs." "He goes on, and this seems true to I'm sure it will be published me. It is 'Nonsense' to say the out there." Israelis did it. They were Baraka had been ap­ warning the U.S. hand over pointed to a two-year term fist.' Ruppert speculates fur­ as poet laureate in Sept­ ther 1. The U.S. did not lis­ ember 2001 with endorse­ ten 2. They needed the ments from the New Jersey attacks, which I leave to time, Council for the Humanities as Malcolm X s[ai]d, Time and the state's Council on will tell. the Arts. In reaction to the "But die most stunning outrage over "Somebody revelation is this, again Blew Up America," New Ruppert, 'We reviewed the Jersey Governor James list of former tenants of the McGreevey requested that World Trade Center at the Baraka apologize and resign on-line Wall Street Journal from his post; Baraka The Poet Laureate of New Jersey. Amiri Baraka (formerly LeRoi Jones), defends his poem site. And there's die Web site. refused. New Jersey state law •Somebody Blew Up America" at the Bowery Poetry Club on October 17.2002. Baraka. whose It is an alphabetical list of poem concerns the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center, has been called anti-Semitic by makes no provision for the Anti-Defamation League because of references that Israel was aware that the attack was tenants. Scroll to the very removing a poet laureate to take place. (O Richard B. Levine) bottom and notice die mov­ from the post. However, ing date for die office of Zim McGreevey has sought the power to do In the hope of quelling accusations American-Israeli Shipping to Norfolk so from state legislators, according an of anti-Semitism, Baraka cites other Virginia. They were in the World Trade October 7, 2002, New York Times story. verses in the poem which discuss the Center. They must have had Mossad (or "We applaud Governor McGree- Holocaust and other abuses of Jews: Shabak-AB) input because diey vacated vey's request to have Baraka resign," the ". . . the ADL disingenuously makes no one week before September and diey New Jersey News quotes Goldstein as mention of my probing into the cre­ broke their lease. The Israelis didn't pull saying, "What he [Baraka] did is insult­ ators of the holocaust, e.g., 'who put the the attack, but they were smart enough to ing to the residents of New Jersey. He Jews in ovens, / and who helped them get their people out of the way. How has insulted the memory of everyone do it, / Who said 'America First'/ and come our government didn't do die same who died 9/11 by making the outra­ Ok'd die yellow stars,' which of course thing for us.' (Statement & Quote geous claim that it was not al-Qaeda is a reference to America's domestic fas­ by George DeCarlo, Coordinator of but Israel [who attacked the United cists just before World War @ [sic] and Union County Greens, Co Founder of States]. The best way for him to apolo­ the Nazi Holocaust." die NJ Lavender Greens—included in gize is to resign." "Nor do these ADL purveyors of false­ media pkg.)" On October 2, 2002, Baraka issued hood mention the poem's listing of some In addition to Ruppert's video, Baraka a statement defending his poem and his of the Jews across the world, oppressed, points to sources "everywhere on the right to retain his post as New Jersey imprisoned, murdered by actual Anti- Internet" for various allegations. Baraka's Poet Laureate (see www.amiribaraka. Semitic forces, open or disguised. The research leaves much to be desired. com/speech 100202.html). "The recent poem asks 'Who killed Rosa Luxem­ dishonest, consciously distorted and bourg, Liebnecht/Who murdered the • If Baraka had gone to www.mfa. gov.il/mfa/go.asp?MFAH0mdb0, he insulting non-interpretation of my Rosenbergs/ And all the good people iced, might have wondered who in Mossad poem, 'Somebody Blew Up America' tortured, assassinate, \sic\ vanished.'" forgot to tell Alona Avraham, Leon by the Anti-Defamation League," Nevertheless, Baraka then proceeds Lebor, Shay Levinhar, Daniel Lewin.

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and Haggai Sheffi—all Israeli and all cal purpose of his poetry, he has an ous and dramatic, scientists have long killed in the attacks—to stay away obligation to motivate people through realized that they have natural neuro- from the World Trade Center and com­ truth, not lies. physiological explanations. mercial passenger flights on that day. The researchers implanted and stim­ —Kevin Christopher ulated electrodes at various sites on the • If Baraka had gone to http://usinfo. patient's brain in an effort to locate the state.gov/topical/pol/terror/01091 Kevin Christopher is Public Relations focus of epileptic seizures she had been 4l7.htm, he might have asked who Director for CSICOP. came up with the figure that 4,000 suffering from for eleven years. (She Israeli citizens worked at the World had given informed consent for these Trade Center, when an official from Brain Site Located that procedures.) That site was indeed the Israeli Consulate in New York located, in the medial temporal lobe, estimated that no more than 100 Induces Illusory Out-of- but in finding it the researchers also dis­ Israelis worked there. Body Experiences covered, five centimeters away in the brain's right angular gyrus, a site that • If Baraka had visited www.hreda. com, he would have found out that Apparently the part of the brain that can stimulated OBEs. the Zim American-Israeli Shipping induce out-of-body experiences has Initial stimulation of this site led the company's move from New York City been located. patient to report that she was "sink­ to Hampton Roads, Virginia, was an­ ing inro the bed" or "falling from a nounced publicly in a press release The finding is the result of diagnostic height." Increased current amplitude (3.5 issued on April 2, 2001, by the research in which out-of-body experi­ Hampton Roads Economic Develop­ ences and otJier illusions about a patient's milliamps) led to an OBE. "I see myself ment Alliance. This was a business body were induced when a specific site of lying in bed, from above, but I only see decision and a matter of public her brain was electrically stimulated. my legs and lower trunk," the patient knowledge, not a mysterious, surrep­ told the researchers. Two further stimula­ titious, last-minute flight from tions induced the same sensation, which impending danger. included an instantaneous feeling of "lightness" and "floating" about two • Recent news reports indicate that meters above the bed, close to the ceiling. terrorist leader Mohammed Atta Asked to watch her legs, she reported announced the planned date of the attacks to his roommate-conspirator seeing them "becoming shorter." If they Ramzi Binalshibh in Hamburg, were bent, she reported that her legs Germany, on August 29, 2001 (sec appeared to be moving quickly toward www.cbsnews.com/stoties/2002/ her face, and she took evasive action. 10/09/60II/main524947.shtmI). If These and other like observations Zim's chief officers planned to bail lead the researchers to conclude tJiat out from the World Trade Center because of a known terrorist plans, OBEs and complex body-sensory illu­ they had knowledge of the attack sions can be artificially induced by elec­ date nearly five months before the trical stimulation of the cortex. "The terrorist's inner circle of operatives association of these phenomena and and confidants even knew. This their anatomical selectivity suggest that makes psychic precognition an even they have a common origin in body- more plausible explanation than a tip related processing, an idea that is sup­ from Mossad. ported by the restrictions of these visual experiences to the patient's own body." I don't believe that Amiri Baraka is The neurological mechanisms diat the taging anti-Semite that some in cause OBEs aren't fully understood, the Jewish advocacy groups and the media In a report in the September 19 researchers say. But the facts that that have portrayed him to be in past Nature (419: 269-270), Olaf Blanke and sensations of levitation and lightness weeks. His conspiracy paranoia is not neurological colleagues with the accompanied the OBEs in their patient focused on Israel or Jews. However, he University Hospitals of Geneva and and also that the core region of die is certainly a unrepentant sucker for Lausanne report that they repeatedly human vestibular cortex is situated close induced out-of-body experiences "purveyors of falsehood" and "trashy to the angular gyrus may be significant. (OBE)—in which a person feels propaganda." Although "Somebody "It is possible that the experience of detached from her own body and sees it dissociation of self from the body is a Blew Up America" is poetry, not jour­ from above—in a forty-three-year-old result of failure to integrate complex nalism, poetic license should not female patient. somatosensory and vestibular informa­ absolve Baraka, who professes to use People who experience OBEs often tion," diey conclude. poetry to make provocative social and interpret them as a paranormal experi­ political statements. If that's the ethi­ ence, but while they are admittedly curi­ —Kendrick Frazier

12 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL

Amityville: The Horror of It All

he bestselling book The Amityville threw open windows, bending their supposedly paranormal phenomena, Horror: A True Story was followed locks; caused green slime to ooze from a including inflicting a priest with inex­ Tby a movie of the same title and a ceiling; peered into the house at night plicable, painful blisters on his hands. sequel, Amityville II: The Possession. with red eyes and left cloven-hooved Local New York television's Channel Although the original event proved to be a hoax, ttiat fact does not seem well known to the general public. [For more on the Amityville story, see "The ABC- Although the original event proved to ville Horror," p. 53 of this issue—Eds.) be a hoax, that fact does not seem well Now a new book sheds new light on the sordid affair and reviews the multiple- known to the general public. murder case that preceded it- Written by Ric Osuna, it is tided The Night the DeFeos Died: Reinvestigating the Amityville Murders. /a tf 5 "investigated" the alleged haunting by The saga began on November 13, bringing in alleged psychics togedier widi 1974, with the murders of Ronald DeFeo "demonologist" Ed Warren and his wife Sr., his wife Louise, and their two sons Lorraine, a professed "clairvoyant." The and two daughters. The six were shot group held a series of seances in the while they slept in their home in house. One psychic claimed to be ill and Amityville, New York, a community on to "feel personally threatened" by shad­ Long Island. Subsequently die sole re­ owy forces. Lorraine Warren pronounced maining family member—Ronald Jr., that there was a negative entity "right nicknamed "Butch"—confessed to the from the bowels of die eanh." A further slaughter and was sentenced to twenty- seance was unproductive but psychics five yean to life. Just two weeks after his TIN: NIGHT agreed a "demonic spirit" possessed die sentencing late the following year, house and recommended exorcism George and Kathy Lutz and their three (Nickell 1995). children moved into the tragic home p; Mm Dim In September 1977 The Amityville where—allegedly—a new round of hor­ Horror. A True Story appeared. Written by rors began. Jay Anson, a professional writer commis­ The six-bedroom Dutch Colonial sioned by Prentice-Hall to tell die Lutzes' house was to be the Lutzes' residence for only twenty-eight days. They Joe Nickell is CSICOP's Senior Research claimed they were driven out by sinister tracks in the snow outside; infested a Fellow and author of numerous investiga­ forces that ripped open a heavy door, room in mid-winter with hundreds of tive books, and a column in the Skeptical leaving it hanging from one hinge; houseflies; and produced myriad other Briefs.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER lanuary/Februjry 2003 13 story, it became a runaway best seller. ing the extensive damage to doors and For his part, Osuna has his own story Anson asserted: "There is simply too windows detailed by the Lutzes, she to tell. He buys Ronald "Butch" DeFeos much independent corroboration of their noted that the old hardware—hinges, current story about the murders, assur­ narrative to support the speculation that locks, doorknob, etc.—were still in place. ing his readers that it "is true and has they either imagined or fabricated these Upon close inspection, one could see that never been made public" (18, 22). events," although he conceded that the there were no disturbances in the paint DeFeo now alleges that his sister Dawn strange occurrences had ceased after the and varnish (Nickell 1995). urged him to kill the entire family and Lutzes moved out. In time, Ronald DeFeo's attorney, that she and two of Butch's friends had Indeed, a man who later lived there William Weber, told how the Lutzes had participated in the crimes. for eight months said he had experienced come to him after leaving the house, and In fact. Butch maintains that Dawn began the carnage by shooting their dom­ ineering father with the .35-caliber Marlin rifle. Butch then shot his mother, Barbara Cromarty told me not only that her family whom he felt would have turned him in had experienced no supernatural occurrences in for the crime, but claims he never intend­ ed to kill his siblings. He left the house to the house, but that she had evidence look for one of his friends who had left the whole affair was a hoax. the scene and, when he returned to find that Dawn had murdered her sister and other two brothers, he was enraged. He fought with her for the gun and sent her nothing more horrible than a stream of he had told them their "experiences" flying into a bedpost where she was gawkers who tramped onto the property. could be useful to him in preparing a knocked out. He then shot her. Similarly the couple who purchased the book. "We created this horror story over Osuna tries to make this admittedly house after it was given up by the Lutzes, many botdes of wine that George Lutz "incredible" tale believable by explain­ James and Barbara Cromarty, poured ice was drinking," Weber told the Associated ing away contradictory evidence. He water on the hellish tale. They confirmed Press. "We were creating something the accepts DeFeo's claim that he altered the the suspicions of various investigators public wanted to hear about." Weber later crime scene and asserts that the authori­ that it was a bogus admixture of phe­ filed a two-million-dollar lawsuit against ties engaged in abuses and distortions of nomena: part traditional haunting, part the couple, charging them with reneging evidence to support their theory of the poltergeist disturbance, and part de­ on their book deal. The Cromartys also crimes. Even so, Osuna concedes that monic possession, including elements sued the Lutzes, Anson, and the publish­ "Butch had offered several different, if that seemed to have been lifted from the ers, maintaining that the fraudulent ludicrous, versions of what had movie The Exorcist. haunting claims had resulted in sightseers occurred" (33), and that he might again Researchers Rick Moran and Peter destroying any privacy they might have change his story. But he asserts that Jordan (1978) discovered that the police had. During the trials the Lutzes admitted "Too much independent corroboration had not been called to the house and that that virtually everything in The Amityville exists to believe it was just another one there had been no snowfall when the Horror was pure fiction (Nickell 1995; of his lies" (370). Lutzes claimed to have discovered cloven Kaplan and Kaplan 1995). I remain unconvinced. Butch DeFeo hoofprints in the snow. Other claims Now Ric Osuna's The Night the has forfeited his right to be believed, and were similarly disproved (Kaplan and DeFeos Died adds to the evidence. his current tale is full of implausibilities Kaplan 1995). Ronald DeFeos wife Geraldine allegedly and contradictions. Osuna appears to I talked with Barbara Cromarty on confirms much of Weber's account. To me to simply have become yet another of three occasions, including when I visited her, it was clear that the hoax had been his victims. Amityville as a consultant to the In planned for some time. Weber had Search Of television series. She told me intended to use the haunting claims to References not only that her family had experienced help obtain a new trial for his client Anson, Jay. 1977. The Amityville Horror. A True Story. New York; Bantam Books. no supernatural occurrences in the house, (Osuna 2002, 282-286). Kaplan, Stephen, and Roxanne Salch Kaplan. 1995. but that she had evidence the whole affair As to George Lutz—now divorced from The Amityville Horror Conspiracy. Lacyville, Pa.: Belfry Books. was a hoax. Subsequendy I recom­ his wife and criticized by his former step­ Moran, Rick, and Peter Jordan. 1978. The mended to a producer of the then-forth­ sons—Osuna states that "George informed Amityville Horror hoax. Fate. May, 44-46. Nickell, Joe. 1995. Entities: Angels. Spirits, Demons. coming TV series That's Incredible, who me that setting die record straight was not and Other Alien Beings. Amherst, N.Y.: had called for my advice about filming as important as making money off fictional Prometheus Books, 122-129. (Background for the present article has been abridged from dlis inside the house, diat they have Mrs. sequels." Osuna details numerous contra­ source.) Cromarty point out various discrepancies dictions in die story that Lutz continues to Osuna, Ric 2002. The Night the DeFeos Died: Reinvestigating the Amityville Murders. N.p.: for close-up viewing. For example, recall­ offer versions of (286-289). Xlibris Corporation.

14 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER THINKING ABOUT SCIENCE MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI

Causes and Correlations

ne of the most common fallac­ the dream is not followed by their multiple causes, a subset of which may ies committed by believers in call; yet, because of an innate tendency be sufficient to generate the effect. The Othe paranormal is what in phi­ of the human brain to remember hits brother could call for other reasons than losophy is known by the Latin name of and forget misses, we pay attention to the dream, notwithstanding a true causal post hoc, ergo propter hoc, which loosely die exceptions and charge them with connection between dreaming and call­ translates to "after this, therefore special meaning. ing. Or, the dream may be causing the because of this." Surely you have heard But the good skeptic could go further brother to have the impulse to call, but some version of it: "I dreamed of my and ask herself what exacdy we mean by he can't do it because he is at a vacation brother the other night, and the follow­ causation to begin with. If a correlation spot where there are no phones in sight ing morning he called me, though he is not the hallmark of a causal relation­ (as hard as diis may seem to believe). rarely does." The implication here is ship, what is? The modern study of cau­ Scottish skeptic philosopher David that there is some causal connection sation started with die Italian physicist Hume made the next important contri­ between the dream and the phone call, Galileo Galilei, who viewed causes as a bution to our understanding of causality, that one happened because of the other. set of necessary and sufficient conditions one that many philosophers (and a few We all know what is wrong with this for a given effect. According to Galileo, scientists) are still grappling with. Hume argument: a correlation between two the dream can be considered a cause of argued that we never actually have any events does not constitute good enough die call only if every time the subject evidence that causal connections arc real, evidence of a causal connection between dreams of his brodier, die following we only have perceptions of the likely them. In the case of die dream as pre­ morning the brodier actually does call. association between what we call a cause cognition, we probably dream of our The problem with this idea is that it is and an effect. Here Hume was being a relatives often enough, and most often too restrictive: many phenomena have good empiricist, something that a skeptic

Introducing a New Column

"Thinking About Science" is a new reg­ sor in the Departments of Botany and ular SKEPTICAL INQUIRER column starting in Ecology & Evolutionary Biology at the this issue. The series of short columns University of Tennessee at Knoxville and will focus on issues of scientific method­ author of the new book Denying ology in conducting research, both in Evolution: Creationism, Scientism, and skepticism and more generally in sci­ the Nature of Science (Sinauer 2002). His ence. The goal is to share with SI readers earlier SKEPTICAL INQUIRER articles include the conceptual difficulties of doing gen­ "Hypothesis Testing and the Nature of uinely good research and testing Skeptical Investigations" (November/ hypotheses. Some, like this first one, will December 2002), "Design Yes. Intelli­ gent No" (September/October 2001), deal with conceptual issues, others will and "Where Do We Come From? A be tied to specific examples of research Humbling Look at the Biology of Life's in skepticism or science to illustrate Origins" (September/October 1999). His what works and what doesn't. Author Web site is www.rationallyspeaking.org. Massimo Pigliucci is an associate profes­

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2003 15 ought to appreciate. For him, talk of nomena, we have to be able to do exper­ the probability of getting cancer is mea­ "causes" sounded as strange as talking of iments that allow us to manipulate the surably higher when the subjects smoke action at a distance, which in pre- conditions so that only one factor at a than when they don't. Other factors here Newtonian times was an exercise for time is allowed to change. A series of are taken into consideration statistically, mystics, not scientists. So Hume decided these experiments will eventually pin­ not necessarily by experimental manipu­ to setde on a very pragmatic concept of point the cause(s) of certain effects. lation. That is, one carries out the inves­ causality. He suggested that we are justi­ While Mill's idea has been of funda­ tigation taking care of sampling individ­ fied in talking about causes and effects if mental importance for modern science, uals with different socio-economic back­ three conditions hold: 1) the first event the problem with it is that it imposes on grounds, diets, exercise habits, and genetic constitution. If, when these other (say, the dream) precedes the second one the investigators logistic requirements variables are kept in check statistically, we (say, your brothers call); 2) the two that arc often too restrictive. What if it is still detect an increase in the likelihood of events are contiguous in time, i.e., your not possible to control all variables but getting cancer in the smokers compared brother called the morning after the one during an inquiry? Carefully con­ to the nonsmokers, we are justified in dream, not a month or a year later; 3) trolled manipulative experiments are pos­ tentatively accepting a causal connection. there is a constant conjunction between sible only in certain fields and under very Notice, however, that while the prob­ the two events, i.e., every time you taxing conditions. Should we dien give up abilistic account of causality is indeed dream of your brother, he will call. As the the concept of causality for the much very powerful in practice, conceptually reader will have noticed, however, the larger number of instances in which such it brings us back toward Hume: the only latter clause is very similar to Galileo's manipulations are not possible, unethical, reason we are talking about causality is idea of necessary and sufficient condi­ or simply too expensive? That would be because we perceive a series of regulari­ tion, and will not actually help the scien­ problematic because, for example, we ties, not because we know that actual tist in real situations. could not conclude that smoking causes causes are at play. So, in science as in John Stuart Mill, well known as a cancer. It is simply not possible to do the skeptical investigations, we might have utilitarian, proposed a concept of causa­ right experiment, especially with human to admit that the most we can get is a tion that is at the basis of much modern beings: mere are too many variables, not certain probability of being right. experimental science and, hence, of to mention deep ethical issues. Definitive truth is a chimera that does skeptical investigations. Mill argued that What then? One of the most modern not belong to science after all. causality simply cannot be demon­ conceptions of causality is the so-called strated without experimentation. Essen­ probabilistic one. According to proba­ Further Reading tially, Mill said that in order to establish bilistic causality we can reasonably infer David Hum 1739-1740). A Treitise of Human a causal connection between two phe­ that, say, cancer is caused by smoking if Nature. D

ASKE - The Association for Skeptical Enquiry ECSO - European Council of Special Organizations CSICOP - The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal 11th European Skeptics Congress September 5-7,2003 • London, England

This congress will be held in the center of London, an exciting meeting place for skeptics from the world over to talk about, listen to. discuss, and debate current controversies.

The congress will consist of: • Keynote addresses by invited speakers • "Make your point" sessions: brief presentations, • One or more debates on contentious issues following which the audience will discuss and • Thirty-minute talks and discussion by participants challenge the issue raised by each presenter. There will be a sequence of symposia devoted to different areas of interest to skeptics, although one symposium may be a miscellany of topics. The others are Science, Health and Medicine; Parapsychology, Anomalistic Psychology; and "Scientists on the Defensive," the last-mentioned being in the form of a debate.

For further details visit the ASKE Web site (www.aske.org.uk) or contact The 11th European Skeptics Congress. ASKE, P.O. Box 5994, Ripley, DE5 3X, UK (e-mail: [email protected]).

16 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NOTES ON A STRANOE WORLD MASSIMO POLIDORO

Don't Try This at Home

ome of the most astonishing feats of Claims of the Paranormal) has twice unfortunately not one of them was ever accomplished (or supposedly invited Premanand to Italy in order to authentic, they were all accomplished Saccomplished) by men are the present his work to die Italian public. by trickery." incredible demonstrations of Indian Luigi and I spent hours with him dis­ "What kind of trickery?" we asked. fakirs and gurus. The word fakir often cussing Indian fakirs and gurus; he is a "You see, there arc four different brings to mind the image of a thin, old very likeable fellow, kind and helpful in ways to obtain a 'miracle': by sleight of Indian man, lying on a bed of nails, walking on hot coals or accomplishing any other kind of apparently impossi­ Basava Premanand has devoted his abilities and full ble demonstration. It is said that years time work to the investigation of supernatural of practice and meditation are needed in order to master these peculiar abili­ claims in India and the subsequent revelation ties and that they arc precluded from of the tricks and frauds he found. mere mortals. Since these are just the kind of claims that provoke the curiosity of hand, by the use of chemical people like myself and my compounds, by mechanical friend Luigi Garlaschelli, means, and, finally, using a chemist at the University of some little-known facts about Pavia and a noted expert on the human body." religiously related paranormal Premanand then went on claims, a few years ago we to describe all of the tricks he decided that we were going found and that we subse­ to test some of the fakir quently put in practice. demonstrations. We asked him how he The episode that sparked became interested in such phe­ our curiosity was a meeting nomena. "When I was a kid," with famed Indian skeptic Premanand told us, "I believed Basava Premanand. Prcman- Luigi Garlaschelli hokk a (laming torch lot a demonstration in miracles. I was fascinated by and, who was born in Calcutta stories of magic powers and in 1930, is an Indian magician and leader all of his descriptions and has a good yogis. Being a Hindu boy, I too wanted of me Indian Skeptics; he has devoted his sense of humor, especially when relating to possess diese powers and so I set forth abilities and full time work to die investi­ some of die most bizarre episodes he hap­ gation of supernatural claims in India pened to be involved in. Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the and the subsequent revelation of the "Have you ever seen a real miracle?" paranormal, author, lecturer, and co- tricks and frauds he found. CICAP (the we asked him. founder and head of CICAP, the Italian Italian Committee for the Investigation His response: "I've seen a lot, but skeptics group.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2003 17 looking for a guru willing to teach me. into some sort of Occidental disciples of of the information contained in these My search took me to various gurus: Premanand. pages. In other words do not try this at among the first was Swami Sivananda Here, for your enjoyment, are some home.'Wc discuss them^r informational Maharaj, then the only living disciple of very impressive feats that may give purposes only. Ramakrishna Parmahansa, the guru that the impression that one is a "human Playing with Fire Any demonstration that involves fire has quite a strong impact on the lay public, since anyone knows from childhood the While yogis kept explaining to kind of threat it represents. However, if others how to obtain perfect health, handled very carefully and if one takes all the necessary precautions, it is possible they themselves had various kinds to demonstrate feats that appear to be of health problems. more impressive and dangerous than they really are. It is possible, for example, to light a torch and pass it close to the skin claimed he had seen God and had without getting burned. How? shown It to his disciples. I went to Well, first of all you prepare die the Swami and asked him to show torch: you need a wooden stick me God, exactly like Parmahansa about an inch thick; wrap a rope had shown It to him; he confessed quite a few times around one end of he hadn't really seen It. In chose the stick and then immerse this end days, furthermore, I observed a in kerosene. Let the excess drip off recurring fact: while yogis kept on and then light the rope with a explaining to others how to obtain lighter or a match. With kerosene perfect health, they themselves had you obtain quite a big flame, with various kinds of health problems: dark smoke, that you can pass rheumatisms, liver deficits, asthma, under your forearm without burn­ diabetes, cancer. ... I asked one of ing your skin (though your hair the gurus about this and he said: 'I probably will get burned). Always could instantly be healthy if I want keep the flame in motion and never to, but I am voluntarily paying for stop it close to the skin. You can die sins I committed in a previous start by moving the flame from your life.' It was quite clear even then that elbow and then finish by passing my attitude was not welcome and, under your hand and finally away. usually, when I started questioning what I saw I was inevitably asked to Fire-eating leave the temple." You don't really "eat" fire, but you Premanand, who is also the can put a flame in your mouth author of thirty books in malay- Famed Indian skeptic Basava Premanand "eals" fire. without getting burned. You need a alam (the language of his country) torch built as described above and and five in English, told us of his salamander," a fireproof man or woman! some kerosene. Immerse the torch in ultimate goal. Premanand taught us these demonstra­ kerosene and then light it. Again, let the "My desire is to build a research cen­ tions and, since we ourselves were able excess kerosene drip off before you ter in India where all the miracles and to perform them, we think that anyone, attempt your demonstration. Tilt your psychic phenomena will be exhibited with due care and preparation, could be head backward, open your mouth and and explained with a library on religion, able to present them. Before going any slightly breath out: never breath in! Put magic, science, etc. But this costs money further, however, you should take note the torch in your mouth, without rush­ and, unfortunately, I cannot conjure up that we strongly discourage any attempt ing but also without hesitation: instantly money from diin air!" to reproduce the demonstrations close your mouth. You won't feel any It was right after meeting this very described here, unless you arc being pain and the torch will extinguish itself: peculiar and inspiring man diat we helped by some expert in the field, and this happens because without oxygen the decided to put his suggestions to practi­ that we cannot be held responsible for flame can't stay alive. Be careful only to cal use and see if we could turn ourselves anydiing arising from an improper use use kerosene, never use alcohol, gasoline.

18 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER or any kind of solvent: their flames are This time, I didn't need to wait for my delight to watch and speak with too hot and can easily burn you. Prcmanand to tell us the solution to some of the old-timers there, and one this mystery. When I was living in chap used to astonish me by washing Camphor Eating Florida to work with James Randi, he his hands, scooping the dross from the Prcmanand also showed us how you can once told me a very revealing story: "In surface of some molten metal, then keep a piece of flaming camphor in your my youth, I worked Saturdays at an splashing his hands in it! Told by him mouth (the kind used to keep insects aluminum foundry in Canada. It was that I could do another related stunt, I away from your clothes) or toss it from one hand to the other without damage. "In 1977," Premanand told us, "a film artist of Kerala published an article chal­ lenging me to burn camphor on the You can keep the burning camphor hand and wave it before the idol in the temple. He said that his godman, Swami on the palm of your hand as long Saryananda Saraswathi, the International as it never remains in the same place. President of Vishwa Hindu Parishad, burns camphor on his hand and waves it before the idol of Shri Rama in his tem­ ple. This was considered to be a miracle. I told him that this stunt can be done by got my nerve together and alone one children of five. And in the end they afternoon in the garage of my home, I even eat the fire. If this godman really heated a soldering 'copper' in a blow­ has supernatural powers let him keep the torch flame, and when it was glowing camphor in his beard, light it, and wave brightly red, I licked it with my bare it before the idol without getting his tongue. As I brought the thing close to beard singed. The godman did not my face, I felt the extreme heat of it on accept the challenge." my face, to the point where it was almost unbearable. I rushed indoors to For these demonstrations you need a examine my tongue in the bathroom large camphor cube (pure, not syn­ mirror. It was intact, and hasn't stopped thetic) and a match box. Hold the cam­ moving since. There was no trace of phor cube between the thumb and any burn, and I was ecstatic. My index finger and light it. You can keep mother never found out." the burning camphor on the palm of At the end of the lengthy discussions your hand as long as it never remains on we had with Premanand on the myster­ die same place but is moved about on ies of the East, which no longer the palm as you wave your hand. When appeared as mysteries, there was one the palm gets hot transfer the camphor more thing that Basava Premanand told to the other hand and wave it as before. us. "You know, I told you I had one Later, when both the hands have desire: to create a research center in absorbed enough heat and might burn, India for the investigation of psychic place the burning camphor on your phenomena. Well, to tell you the truth I tongue. When you feel the tongue get­ also have one other wish." ting hot, blow out the fire by breathing "And what is it?" we asked. out, or close your mouth and the fire "It's simple, I'd like to witness a real will get extinguished by itself. miracle before dying." I think that could be a wish that Licking Red-hot Rods many of us would subscribe to. . . . "While talking to the District Further Reading Education Officers at Delhi," Pre­ Dalai. S. (Editor). 1997. Swami and Manna. manand said, "one of them from Kaufman and Co: Washington. Gharwal district told me he had seen Fisher. J. 1976. Body Magic. Stein and Day: New York. an oracle, possessed by the deity, lick­ Lever. D. 1961. Stranger than Fiction. The ing a red hot poker until it was cold. Supreme Magic Co.: Bideford. He wondered how a person could lick Ovette, J. 1947. Miraculous Hindu Feats. Lloyd & Jones: Pomeroy. Ohio. a red-hot iron unless he had super­ Prcmanand. B. 1993. Science versus Miracles. natural powers." Indian CSICOP, Podanur.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2«03 19 How Not to Test Mediums Critiquing the Afterlife Experiments

Professor Gary Schwartz makes revolutionary claims that he has provided competent scientific evidence for survival of consciousness and—even more extraordinary—that mediums can actually communicate with the dead. He is badly mistaken. The research he presents is flawed, and in numerous ways. Probably no other extended program in psychical research deviates so much from accepted norms of scientific methodology as this one.

RAY HYMAN

ary Schwartz is professor of psychology, medicine, neurology, psychiatry, and surgery at the University Gof Arizona. After receiving his Ph.D. in personality psychology from Harvard University, he taught at Harvard and then at Yale University for twenty-eight years as a pro­ fessor of psychology and psychiatry. He has published more than 400 scientific papers. He came to the University of Arizona in 1988 to do research on, among other things, the relationship between love and health. In 1993 he met Linda Russek and married her soon after. Linda was still grieving over the death of her father. Soon after she met Schwartz, Linda asked him, "Do you think it is possible that my father is still alive?"

20 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER That question triggered a research program to answer it and associates observed mediums give readings to sitters "in strin­ the more general question of survival of consciousness. At first gently monitored experiments." Schwartz does admit that his the program was conducted in secret and then became public experiments were not ideal. For example, only the very last in around 1997. Since 1997, Schwartz has reported a number of his sequence of studies used a truly double-blind format. Yet studies in which he and his coworkers have observed some tal­ he insists that the mediums, although often wrong, consis­ ented mediums such as John Edward and George Anderson tently came up with specific facts and names about the sitters' give readings to sitters in his laboratory. This work has departed friends and relatives that the skeptics have been attracted considerable attention because of Schwartz's creden­ unable to explain away as fraud, cold reading, or lucky guesses. tials and position. Even more eye-opening is Schwartz's appar­ He provides several examples of such instances throughout the ent endorsement of the mediums' claims that they are actually book. These examples demonstrate, he believes, that the read­ communicating with the dead. ings given by his mediums are clearly different from those For Schwartz this conclusion follows from the famous prin­ given by cold readers and less gifted psychics. "If cold readings ciple known as Occam's Razor. Schwartz paraphrases Occam's are easy to spot by anyone familiar with the techniques, the principle as "All things being equal, the simpler hypothesis is kinds of readings we have been getting," he asserts, "in our lab­ usually the correct one."; As Schwartz sees it, "The best exper­ oratory are quite different in character." iments [supporting the reality of communicating with the dead] can be explained away, only if one makes a whole series Could It Be Cold Reading? of assumptions. . . ."These assumptions include: 1) that medi­ Now it so happens that I have devoted more than half a century ums use detectives to gather some of their information; 2) that to die study of psychic and cold readings. I have been especially sitters falsely remember specific facts such as the names of rel­ concerned with why such readings can seem so concrete and atives; 3) that the mediums are super guessers; 4) that medi­ compelling, even to skeptics. As a way to earn extra income, I ums can interpret subtle cues such as changes in breathing to began reading palms when I was in my teens. At first, I was infer specific details about the sitter and her relatives; and 5) skeptical. 1 thought that people believed in palmistry and other that the mediums use super telepathy to gather facts about the divination procedures because they could easily fit very general sitter's deceased friends and family. According to Schwartz, statements to tfieir particular situation. To establish credibility such assumptions create unnecessary complexity. "However, if with my clients, I read books on palmistry and gave readings we were to apply Occam's Razor to die total set of data col­ lected over the past hundred years, including the information Ray Hyman is professor emeritus of psychology at the University of you have read about in this book, there is a straightforward Oregon. His lifelong research interests include examination of hypothesis that is elegant in its simplicity. This is the simple alleged psychic readings and the psychology of deception and self- hypothesis that consciousness continues after death. This deception. Many of his critiques parapsychological experiments hypothesis accounts for all the data" [p. 254]. and related matters were collected in his book The Elusive Schwartz's new book The Afterlife Experiments presents evi­ Quarry (Prometheus 1989). Address: 5205 Nectar Way Eugene, dence from a series of five reports in which Schwartz and his OR 97405- E-mail: [email protected].

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/Febfujry 2003 21 according to the accepted interpretations for the lines, shape of principles go under such names as the fallacy of personal vali­ die fingers, mounds, and orfrer indicators. I was astonished by dation, subjective validation, confirmation bias, belief perse­ the reactions of my clients. My clients consistently praised me verance, the illusion of invulnerability, compliance, demand for my accuracy even when I told them very specific things characteristics, false uniqueness effect, foot-in-the-door phe­ about problems with their health and other personal matters. I nomenon, illusory correlation, integrative agreements, self- even would get phone calls from reference effect, the principle of indi­ clients telling me that a prediction that viduation, and many, many others. I had made for them had come true. Much of this is facilitated by the illu­ Within months of my entry into palm sion of specificity that surrounds lan­ reading, I became a staunch believer in guage. All language is inherently its validity. My conviction was so ambiguous and depends much more strong that I convinced my skeptical than we realize upon the context and high school English teacher by giving nonlinguistic cues to fix its meaning him readings and arguing with him. I in a given situation. later also convinced the head of the Again and again, Schwartz argues psychology department where I was an that the readings given by his star undergraduate. mediums differ greatly from cold read­ When I was a sophomore, major­ ings. He provides samples of readings ing in journalism, a well-known men- throughout the book. Although these talist and trusted friend persuaded me samples were obviously selected Gary E. Schwartz to try an experiment in which I would because, in his opinion, they represent deliberately read a clients hand oppo­ mediumship at its best, every one of site to what the signs in her hand indi­ THE diem strikes me as no different in kind cated. I was shocked to discover that from those of any run-of-the-mill psy­ this client insisted that this was the chic reader and as completely consis­ most accurate reading she had ever AFTERLIFE tent with cold readings. In August experienced. As a result, I carried out 2001, Schwartz assembled a panel of more experiments with the same out­ seven experts on cold reading, includ­ come. It dawned on me that some­ EXPERIMENTS ing me, to instruct him on the topic. thing important was going on. We were shown videotapes of Suzane Whatever it was, it had nothing to do Northrup and John Edward giving with the lines in the hand. I changed readings in his laboratory. Most mem­ my major from journalism to psychol­ bers of the panel were openly sympa­ ogy so that I could learn why not only thetic to Schwartz's goals and pro­ other people, but also I, could be so gram. Yet we all agreed that what we badly led astray. My subsequent career saw Northrup and Edward doing was has focused on the reasons why cold no different from what we would readings can appear to be so com­ expect from any cold reader. pelling and seemingly specific. I am sure that Professor Schwartz Psychologists have uncovered a will strongly disagree with my obser­ number of factors that can make an vation that the readings he presents as ambiguous reading seem highly spe­ GARY E. SCHWARTZ. Ph.D. strong evidence for his case very much cific, unique, and uncannily accurate. • IK William 1 SIMM resemble the sorts of readings we And once the observer or client has it II IEIMI CNQCM would expect from psychic readers in been struck with the apparent accu­ general and cold readers in particular. racy of the reading, it becomes virtually impossible to dislodge This disagreement between us, however, relies on subjective the belief in the uniqueness and specificity of the reading. assessment. That is why we have widely accepted scientific Research from many areas demonstrates this finding. The mediods to setde the issue. That is why it is important, espe­ cially for the sort of revolutionary claims that Schwartz wants to make, that it be backed up by competent scientific evidence. Throughout his 2002 book The Afterlife Experiments, Schwartz The Afterlife Experiments: Breakthrough Scientific implies that he has already provided such evidence. Evidence of Life After Death. By Gary E. Schwartz, Ph.D. with William L Simon. Pocket Books, New York, This, as I will explain, is badly mistaken. The research he 2002. ISBN 0-7434-3658-X. 374 pp. Hardcover, $25. presents is flawed. Probably no other extended program in psychical research deviates so much from accepted norms of scientific merJiodology as tfris one does.

22 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Is the Research Fundamentally Flawed? the research program were not compromised by these defects, Although never going so far as to claim his research method­ the claims being made would require replication by indepen­ ology is ideal, he apparently believes it is adequate to justify his dent investigators. Perhaps Schwartz's most serious miscon­ conclusions that his mediums arc communicating with the ception is seen in his attempt to shift the burden of proof from dead. He writes, "Skeptics who claim that this is some kind of himself to the skeptics. fraud the mediums are working on us have nonetheless been The worst mistake made by Schwartz and his colleagues was unable to point out any error in our experimental technique to to publish the results they have obtained so far. Instead, they account for the results" (p. xxii). Later he asserts, "The data should have first tried to gather evidence for their hypothesis that appear to be real. If there is a fundamental flaw in the totality would meet generally accepted scientific criteria. By submitting of the research presented in these pages, the flaw has managed their very inadequate studies to public scrutiny and by demand­ to escape the many experienced scientists who have carefully ing that skeptics "explain away" their defective data, they have examined the work to date" (p. 13). lost credibility. In addition, the journals that did accept these These statements perplex me greatly. I have carefully item­ studies for publication and Schwartz's panel of Friendly Devil's ized not one but several "fundamental" flaws in Schwartz's Advocates have also suffered gready in credibility. afterlife experiments. I confronted Schwartz with this listing of flaws at two public meetings where we shared the same The worst mistake made by Schwartz and his platform. I also brought diem up again at colleagues was to publish the results they have the panel on cold reading that he convened. The other members of the panel also obtained so far. Instead, they should have first tried pointed to flaws. And Wiseman and to gather evidence for their hypothesis that would OKeeffe1 pointed to serious problems with Schwartz's first two published studies in the meet generally accepted scientific criteria. areas of judging bias, control group biases, and sensory leakage. I would have to make this article almost Schwartz's Inadequate and Inappropriate as long as Schwartz's book to explain adequately each flaw. Response to Criticisms Because any one of these flaws by itself would suffice to inval­ idate his experiments as acceptable evidence, I will discuss only Schwartz's responses to criticisms such as those made by a few of these here. First, I will list here the major types of Wiseman and O'Keeffe obscure rather than clarify matters.* flaws in the experiments described in his first four reports (I For example, regarding his failure to provide safeguards against will deal with the fifth report separately below): sensory leakage, he complains that Wiseman and O'Keeffe "curiously did not mention that we were fully cognizant of such 1. Inappropriate control comparisons issues and were actively researching them at the time the 2. Inadequate precautions against fraud and sensory leakage 3. Reliance on non-standardized, untested dependent variables Schwartz et al. paper was published." The fact that the 4. Failure to use double-blind procedures researchers were aware that they had not provided adequate 5. Inadequate "blinding" even in what he calls "single blind- safeguards against sensory leakage does not in any way make experiments their data more acceptable. Indeed, if they were aware of how 6. Failure to independently check on facts the sitters endorsed to properly control for this flaw, it is even more inexcusable that as true 7. Use of plausibility arguments to substitute for actual they failed to do so. Why did they publish data they knew to controls be compromised and try to pass them off as legitimate science? Indeed, Schwartz actually states that he deliberately allowed The preceding list refers to defects in the conduct of the for some sensory leakage to see if "the remaining subtle cues" experiments and in the gathering of the data. Other very seri­ could explain the subsequent accuracy of the mediums' state­ ous problems appear in the way Schwartz interprets and pre­ ments. He also states that he wanted to begin with "a semi- sents the results of his research. These include: naturalistic design ... to develop a professional relationship 8. The confusion of exploratory with confirmatory findings with the mediums. . . ." If, in fact, this was his rationale for 9. The calculation of conditional probabilities that are inap­ using an inadequate design, then he should have treated the propriate and grossly misleading 10. Creating non-falsifiable outcomes by reinterpreting fail­ study as a preliminary probe to see if the mediums could work ures as successes under laboratory conditions. Such a preliminary or pilot study, 11. Inflating significance levels by failing to adjust for multi­ however, should then be followed up with a formal, properly ple testing and by treating unplanned comparisons as if conducted experiment. Knowing how to properly control for the)' were planned. sensor)' leakage in no way licenses the publishing of flawed Other problems involve failure to use adequate randomiza­ data to support a hypothesis. tion procedures, using only sitters who are predisposed to the In defending himself against the charge of sensor)' leakage, survival hypothesis, inappropriate statistical tests, and other Schwartz uses another tactic that violates acceptable scientific common defects that plague new research programs. Even if conduct. He tries to shift the burden of proof onto the

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER ]anuary/Febru»ry 2003 23 skeptic: "Skeptics who speculate that 'cold reading' can achieve ums. There is no way that the results from this control group similar results have a responsibility to show that identical find­ could provide a comparison or baseline for simple guessing. ings can be obtained under the conditions used in the Schwartz The mediums are free to make statements about possible et al. research (e.g., the single-blind sitter-silent condition that contacts, names, relations, causes of death, and odier matters. effectively rules out pre-experimental information and verbal In the earlier experiments they were given "yes" and "no" replies feedback). We welcome such experiments." from the sitters and in later experiments they typically began a segment without feedback and then went through an additional segment with feed­ This control group in no way provides a proper back. The sitters were free to find matches within the output of the medium to fit their comparison or baseline for the "accuracy ratings" particular circumstances. Later the sitter was of the mediums by the sitters. The control group given a transcript of the entire reading and rated each statement for how accurately it was given a task that differed in very important applied to her situation. The statements that ways from that of the mediums. got the highest rating were counted as hits. The proportion of such hits varied Irom approximately 73 to 90 percent in the ear­ Sorry, Professor Schwartz. The skeptics and the scientific lier experiments and somewhat lower in the later ones. community have no responsibility to show anything until you In contrast, the control subjects were given a series of ques­ provide them with data collected according to well-established tions based on a reading given to their first sitter. Statements and acceptable standards. The responsibility is yours to first from the readings were converted into questions that could be provide us with evidence for your hypothesis of survival of answered in such a way that the answer could be scored cor­ consciousness that is gathered according to the appropriate sci­ rect or incorrect. For example, if the medium had correctly entific standards which include controlling for sensory leak­ guessed the cause of the sitter's mother's death, a question age; devising dependent variables that are relevant, reliable, given to the controls might be, "What was the cause of her and valid; and using control comparisons that are meaningful. mother's death?" Schwartz and his colleagues report thai the Schwartz's rejoinders to Wiseman and O'Keeffe's other two average percentage of correct answers by the controls was 36 topics of criticism are even more disturbing. His response to percent. Because the "accuracy" of the mediums was much the charge of possible judging bias is that, "The purpose of the higher, the researchers conclude that the mediums had access original Schwartz et al. experiments (2001) was not to rule out to true information that cannot be explained away as guessing. possible rater bias, but to minimize it." He again tries to shift Wiseman and O'Keeffe correctly point out that this is an the burden of proof to the skeptic, by arguing that it is implau­ inappropriate comparison. Although Schwartz claims that, if sible to speculate that his sitters would exhibit rater bias on anything, the controls had an advantage over the mediums, such things as names, relationships, and the like. Indeed, it is the use of the results for the control groups as a baseline for the highly plausible to me that some sitters might acquiesce to mediums is completely meaningless. Wiseman and O'Keeffe statements that are demonstrably false. However, science exists provide several reasons why. In addition to the reasons they as a way to avoid arguments over plausibility. Minimizing rater give, a more fundamental one is that the score for the controls bias is not the same as precluding it. If he wants to claim sci­ does not involve subjective ratings by the sitters while the accu­ entific acceptance for his evidence then he has to gather the racy scores for the mediums depend entirely upon the judgment of data under conditions that eliminate or adequately correct for these sitters. We have no idea how well the mediums could do such bias. Even worse is his rejoinder to the claim that he used if given the same task as the controls. I strongly suspect they an inappropriate control group. "The purpose of the origi­ could not perform any better. nal...experiments was not to include an ideal control group, The accuracy score for the medium is completely depen­ but rather to address, and possibly rule out (or in) one possi­ dent on the subjective decisions of the sitter. The very first ble explanation for the data—i.e., simple guessing." example of a reading provided in this book begins as follows: This last statement is both confusing and wrong. I suspect The first thing being shown to me is a male figure that I would that Schwartz means by "an ideal control group" one made up say as being above, that would be to me some type of father of individuals who are the same age and have the same son of image. . . . Showing me the month of May. . . .They're telling experience as his mediums. Since his actual control group con­ me to talk about the Big H-um, the H connection. To me this an H with an N sound. So what they are talking about is sisted of undergraduate students who had no prior experience as Henna, Henry, but there's an HN connection, (p. xix) mediums, die group was obviously not ideal in this sense. However, what Wiseman and O'Keeffe are criticizing is that this The sitter identified this description as applying to her late control group in no way provides a proper comparison or base­ husband, Henry. His name was Henry, he died in the month line for the "accuracy ratings" of the mediums by the sitters. of May and was "affectionately referred to as the 'gentle This is for the simple reason that the control group was given a giant.'" The sitter was able to identify other statements by the task that differed in very important ways from that of the medi­ medium as applying to her deceased spouse.

24 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Note, however, the huge degree of latitude for the sitter to 1. What was the relation of the deceased to the sitter? fit such statements to her personal situation. The phrase "some 2. What was the name of the sitters husband? type of father image" can refer to her husband because he was 3. In what month did he die? 4. How was he described by his friends? also the father to her children. However, it could also refer to her own father, her grandfather, someone else's father, or any The control students would have to come up with the male with children. It could easily refer to someone without answers husband. Henry, May, and big to get a perfect score. children such as a priest or father-like individual-including The likelihood of anyone, including the mediums, gening all Santa Claus. It would have been just as good a match if her these correct, or even a high percentage of them correct, is very husband had been born in May, had married in May, had been small indeed. It is obvious that this a completely different task diagnosed with a life-threatening illness in May, or considered from the one performed by the mediums. A strikingly obvious May as his favorite month. The "HN" connection would fit difference is that the sitter's judgments and biases are com­ just as well if the sitter's name were Henna or her husband had pletely removed from the task given the controls. Indeed, it is a dog named Hank. just these potential biases and subjective judgments being Schwartz concludes that, "No other person in the sifter's made by the sitters that obviously cries out for controlling. family fit the cluster of facts 'father image, Big H, Henry, month of May' except her late husband, Henry." Of course Conditional Probabilities not! If that person, or any other, also found a match for their One way that Schwartz assesses the likelihood that his medi­ personal life, it too would be unique. When I put myself in the ums are obtaining their "hits" just by chance guessing is to cal­ shoes of a possible sitter and try to fit the reading to my situ­ culate conditional probabilities of getting a certain pattern of ation, I can find a good fit to my father, who was physically statements that would match the sitter's situation. In the large, whose last name was Hyman, and for whom, like any excerpt from the reading I have been using as an example, he human on this planet, experienced one or more notable events might estimate the probability of getting the gender of the sit­ in the month of May. Other things in the reading also can eas­ ter's husband as 1/2; the probability of indicating that he was ily be fitted to my father. Neither the original sitter nor any­ dead as 1/2; the probability of correctly guessing that deceased one else would fit this cluster of facts! Schwartz makes much person was the sitter's husband as, perhaps, 116; the probabil­ of the fact that the cluster of facts that a sitter extracts from a ity of guessing the month of death as 1/12; the probability of reading tend to be unique for that sitter. He even calculates the getting the correct name as 1/15; and the probability that of conditional probabilities of such a cluster occurring just by knowing that he was described by friends as "big" as 1 /20 (of chance. Naturally, these conditional probabilities are extremely course, the particular probabilities being made in most of these low—often with odds of over a trillion-to-one against chance. cases have to be based on assumptions and guesswork, but The "accuracy" score for the medium, as calculated by the Schwartz claims that he errs on the conservative side in mak­ experimenters, depends critically on the sitter's ratings. This ing such estimates). The combined probability of correctly allows subjective validation' and uncontrolled rater biases to getting this particular pattern of matches just by chance would enter the picture on the side of the mediums. The sitters were simply be the product of these separate probabilities. In my deliberately selected because they were already disposed example, the probability of achieving this particular pattern of towards the survival hypothesis (that consciousness survives matches would be less than 1 out of 86,000. death). Given the statement "some type of father image," the Such a low probability would seem to clearly rule out sitter easily fit this to her late husband who was the father of chance as an explanation for the results. Most of Schwartz's her children. For her, this would get the highest accuracy rat­ actual calculations typically lead to probabilities of less than ing. A more skeptical sitter, realizing the ambiguity in the one out of a million or even millions. In one case he calculated statement, might give it a lower rating. Given the statement the probability that the results could have been obtained by "showing me the month of May," the committed sitter would guessing as 1 in 2.6 trillion! If these calculations were appro­ rate it accurate because her husband actually died in the priate they certainly would clearly rule out guessing as an month of May. A less committed sitter might rate it as less explanation for the mediums' apparent successes. accurate because she realizes that this statement could apply to Probability, however, is a very slippery concept. Even any significant event that happened to her husband, herself, or experts have gone badly astray in trying to apply it to situa­ her family in May. From the example above, if I were a com­ tions in the real world. Some of the reasons why Schwartz's mitted sitter receiving the same reading, I could see myself giv­ conditional probability calculations are inappropriate and mis­ ing it a score of five out of five (or 100% accuracy) because my leading in this context involve highly technical considerations father (obviously a type of father image), experienced one or concerning conditional probabilities, independence, sample more significant events in May (showing me the month of May), spaces, and the like. However, you can realize something must was large and overweight and named Hyman (about the Big be wrong here when you consider that these same types of cal­ H-um, the H connection...an H with an N sound). culations also provide very low probabilities for any set of matches that any person—the sitter or someone else—finds in Compare this with the task confronting the control sub­ a given reading. For example, the pattern of matches that I jects. They would be given a series of questions based on this find in the sample reading with respect to my late father yields reading which might go as follows:

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2003 25 a probability of guessing that is so low as to also rule out or adequately corrects for such possible biases. This is why a chance. And this will be true for any pattern of matches that properly conducted research program requires carefully stan­ anyone can find in the same reading. One problem is that dardized, reliable, and valid dependent variables; truly double- Schwartz's calculations do not take into account the enormous blind procedures; appropriate control comparisons; and variety of possible combinations that could be extracted from proper controls for sensory leakage. All of these requirements, a single reading. Each one would be unique to the person for as I have explained, are lacking in the afterlife experiments. whom that pattern makes sense. Schwartz has tried to counter some of these criticisms Ironically, such conditional probability calculations could by pointing to the fact that much of the information be justified (with some important reservations) for the task provided by the medium consists of factual material that given to the control students. Each question they were posed can be independently checked (for example, specific names, has an explicit answer. If we can make relationships, careers, gender, etc.). reasonable assumptions about the Yet he has never bothered to make an probability of getting each answer just independent check on these "facts." by chance, and if we can assume that He simply accepts the sitters' state­ the answers to each question are inde­ ments. He argues that it is completely pendent of each other, then we might unreasonable to believe that one of legitimately try to estimate the proba­ his trusted sitters would say "yes" to a bility of getting all the answers correct fact that was untrue. This, of course, by multiplying together the probabili­ is using a plausibility argument in the ties of correct answers for all the ques­ place of a control that should have tions. Notice that we can do this only Gary Schwartz examines data from his experiments. Frames been incorporated into the research. because we defined the total set of pos­ from Dateline NBC. Perhaps it is unlikely that a sitter sibilities and have not selected, after would acquiesce to a factual state­ the fact, just those questions that were ment that she or he knows to be answered correctly. untrue. However, his own excerpts from readings given in his book pro­ Reliance on Uncorroborated vide one or more examples. In one Sitter Ratings case, one of his best sitters keeps This discussion of the reasons why the acquiescing to John Edward's mis­ control comparison and the calcula­ taken belief that her husband is dead, tion of conditional probabilities are even though he is alive and sitting in inappropriate points to one of the the next room. As he does over and One of the tested mediums, left, tries to get information most serious weaknesses in this from the sitter over again when he encounters what research program. The "accuracy" rat­ looks like a miss, Schwartz manages ings of the mediums depend entirely to find a convenient explanation to upon the judgments of the individual this peculiar situation. He suggests sitters. Each sitter is solely responsible that this could be case of precogni­ for validating the reading given to him tion because the sitter's husband was or her. Each sitter is carefully chosen killed in an accident some months to be someone who is favorably dis­ after the reading. posed to the survival hypothesis and who wants the medium to be able to The Laurie Campbell "White communicate with their departed Crow" Readings family and friends. Schwartz admits John Edward is tested by Gary Schwartz The book begins with a quotation that the "accuracy" ratings from sitters from William James. "In order to dis­ who are not so favorably disposed are much lower. Although prove the law that all crows are black, it is enough to find one this is consistent with rater bias, Schwartz has other explana­ white crow." James was interested in the possibility of psychic tions. He also believes that just as some mediums are "white phenomena. He believed that it was sufficient to find one truly crows," there are also sitters who are "white crows"—that is, indisputable example of a psychic occurrence to demonstrate some sitters are prone to get especially good results. In other that violations of natural law were possible. Schwartz claims he words, some sitters are more prone to give higher ratings of has uncovered several white crows. The performance of his accuracy than do other sitters. mediums, especially Laurie Campbell and John Edward, earn One simple explanation, consistent with Occam's Razor, is them the accolade, in his judgment, of "white crow" mediums. that some sitters are more susceptible to response biases. He has also found at least one "white crow" sitter in one of his Schwartz, I am sure, will strongly disagree. This, again, high­ participants, GD. lights the need for properly conducted research that precludes GD is a psychiatric social worker who lost his partner.

26 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Michael, to AIDS. GD discovered he had mediumistic powers each of the four primary people described accurately by Campbell, and believed he was in contact with his deceased partner. He but four additional facts not known by GD and later confirmed took part as one of three sitters in an experiment with the by sources close to GD indicated that exceptionally accurate medium Laurie Campbell. The researchers reported that, information was obtained for GD's deceased and close friends." "Statistically significant evidence for anomalous information Because of this, Schwartz argues that the medium is most likely retrieval was found for each of die three sitters investigated in getting her information from the deceased individuals rather this experiment. However, it is the uniqueness and extraordi­ than from the sitter's thoughts. At the time of the reading, GD narily evidential nature of the particular reading highlighted in mistakenly thought that Campbell had erred by stating that the this detailed report that justifies focusing on this 'white crow' granddaughter of his aunt Alice was named "Katherine" research reading." In other words, the researchers base tJieir because he believed the name was spelled "Catherine." When report entirely on the results with this one sitter. Although one of the criteria for the selection of the sitters was their willingness to rate the transcripts of their readings, such The medium throws out initials, names, and ratings were apparently not done at the time this report was written. The experi­ vague statements that appear to me to characterize menters report that GD estimated that the the readings from the many psychic readers and information given by the medium was at least 90 percent accurate. Presumably this mediums I have studied over the past sixty years. was simply a subjective estimate. In the pre­ vious experiments the "accuracy" rating was obtained by calculating the proportion of highly rated items GD later checked, he discovered that his cousin's name was among all of the rated items. indeed spelled with a K instead of the C that he was thinking Schwartz et al. state that the complete reading took over an during the reading. Another striking example is where hour. They promised that the full transcript will be made avail­ Campbell said "that M [Michael] showed her where he lived; able at some future date. So far, I have not seen it, so I cannot somewhere in Europe, and his parents have a 'heavy accent' (M judge to what extent this reading might be qualitatively differ­ was German). Laurie Campbell reported that M was showing ent from the readings that I have witnessed or read that have her a big city, and then M was traveling through the country­ been given by Laurie Campbell. In the readings I am familiar side to his home. . . . Campbell claimed that M showed her an with, Campbell throws out initials, names, and vague state­ old, stone 'monaster)'' on the edge of the river on the way to his ments that appear to me to characterize the readings from the parent's home. This information was not known to GD prior many psychic readers and mediums I have studied over the to the reading. After the reading, GD telephoned Ms parents past sixty years. I witnessed a public demonstration by her at a in Germany and learned that there was an old abbey church conference sponsored by Gary Schwartz and Linda Russek in along the river's edge on the way to their house, and that they Tucson in March 2001. I have also carefully studied the com­ had held a service for M in this monastery-like stone building plete transcripts of two readings by Campbell. a few weeks prior to the experiment." At first blush the reading given for GD appears qualitatively These are examples from this reading that Schwartz insists different. From what we are told, Campbell apparently stated that the skeptics cannot explain away in terms of normal that die recipient of the reading was named George (true) even causes such as guessing and cold reading, fraud, or unwitting though she was supposedly completely blind to his identity. sensory leakage. However, the experiment is compromised by She also correctly indicated that the primary deceased person so many serious defects that it would be futile for a skeptic to for GD was a male named Michael (true). She also provided accept this challenge. This would be another example of plac­ the name "Alice" and later, during the interactive part of the ing the burden of proof on the wrong shoulders. Although the reading, correctly stated that this was GD's deceased aunt. experimenters try to make a plausible argument against collu­ Among the list of names she included in her reading was one sion between Campbell and GD, as well as against the possi­ that she said sounded like Talya, Trya, or Tilya. GD has a friend bility that Campbell might somehow have gotten access to the that he calls "Tallia." Campbell mentioned a deceased dog manuscript of GD's forthcoming book (a copy of which was whose name began with an "S." GD had a beloved dog with an in Schwartz's) possession, the actual controls against such sen­ "S" name (but not die name used by Campbell). Other names sory leakage were not very convincing. Indeed, the authors were also relevant including that of GD's father "Bob." The partially acknowledge this defect. "Since the exceptional researchers cite other qualitative hits that they believe provide nature of the data reported here was not anticipated ahead of powerful evidence that Campbell is getting information from a time, the experiment did not include additional desirable con­ paranormal source. trols. . . ." Although I see no reason to assume that fraud did This paranormal source, the authors argue, is not simply occur in this instance, I believe that the experimenters have an extrasensory perception based on GD's thoughts. This is obligation to their mediums and sitters, as well as to the sci­ because in the interactive phase of the reading "not only were entific community, to take all reasonable steps to preclude

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Jinu*ry/Febru*ry 2003 27 fraud as a possibility. By taking such steps they protect their the readings, Campbell and the sitters had no contact and the subjects from any suspicions that might arise in this area. two experimenters who were with Campbell were blind to the The results would have become more interesting if they had order in which the sitters were run. Later each sitter was sent been collected under double-blind conditions—that is, under two transcripts to judge. One was of the actual reading for that conditions where Campbell, GD, and the experimenter, sitter and the other was of a reading given to another subject. Schwartz, were all in ignorance of one another at the time of the The sitters were given no clues as to which was their actual reading. Schwartz calls the experiment "single-blind" because at reading. "The question was, even under blind conditions, the time of the reading (at least the first portions of it), GD did could the sitters determine which of the readings was theirs?" not know who the medium was and Campbell did not know The findings were breathtaking. Once again it was George who the sitter was and was separated from him by a thousand Dalzall's [GD's] reading [that] stood out. .. . This provided miles. Unfortunately, the experimenter, who did know the iden­ incontrovertible evidence in response to the skeptics' highly tity of the sitter as well as quite a bit of his personal history, was implausible argument against the single-blind study that the sit­ with Campbell at the time she was giving much of the reading. ter would be biased in his or her ratings (for example, misread­ ing his deceased loved ones' names and relationships) because he Psychical researchers have a long history of dismissing data col­ knew the information was from his own reading.... The skep­ lected with this weakness as non-evidential. tics' complaint becomes a completely and convincingly impos­ Probably the most serious weakness of this experiment is sible argument in the case of the double-blind study.... It that its outcome relies entirely upon the uncorroborated judg­ appeared to be the ultimate "white crow" design.... (p. 236) ments of the sitter GD. Again, Schwartz relies on plausibility As these quotations reveal, Schwartz believes this double- arguments for the reliability and validity of GD's ratings of the blind experiment has put to rest all the skeptical arguments reading. This is a major defect for many reasons. One is sim­ against his evidence. One of Schwartz's mantras in relation to his ple rater bias. Individuals can differ widely as to what they will afterlife experiments is let the data speak. When I read the full the or will not accept as valid for their personal situation. When report6 of this "ultimate 'white crow' design," the data did speak Campbell says that she is hearing a name that sounds like loud and clear. However, the story the data told is just the oppo­ Talya, Tily, or Tilya, a sitter with a strict criterion might not site from the one that Professor Schwartz apparently hears. accept this as referring to a friend whose name is Tallin. On the The plan of the study was admirably simple. Campbell other hand, a sitter with a looser criterion and who is con­ gave readings to the six sitters in an order that neither she nor vinced that the medium is talking about his situation might the experimenter who was with her knew. In this way neither accept Campbell's probe as referring to a friend with the name the medium nor the person in her presence was aware of who of Tanya, Tina, Tilda, Tony, Dalia, Natalie, or a variety of other the sitter was at the time of the reading.' At the time of the possibilities. Schwartz may be right that it is unlikely that GD reading, the sitter was physically separated from the medium. would misremember or misreport having a friend by the name The medium gave her readings in Tucson, Arizona, while the of Tallia. However, if the outcome of this reading is so earth- sitters were in their homes in different parts of the country. shaking and scientifically revolutionary as he claims it is, I Subsequently, each sitter was mailed two transcripts. One of would think that he should at least make the effort to inde­ the transcripts was the actual reading for that sitter and the pendently check on some of these facts. other was from the reading of another sitter. Each sitter rated This is especially true for "facts" that were unknown to GD the two transcripts, not knowing which was the one actually at the time of the reading, but were later discovered by him to intended for her or him, according to instructions provided by be true. For example, when GD called Ms parents in the researchers. The sitter first circled every item in the tran­ Germany, how did the questioning take place? Did they speak scripts which they judged to be a "dazzle shot." "For you, a in German or English? How well does GD speak German? dazzle shot is some piece of information—whatever it is to you, How well do Ms parents speak and understand English? Did that you experience as 'right on' or 'wow' or 'that's my family.'" GD ask the questions in a leading way? Certainly it would Next, the sitter was instructed to go through the transcripts have been highly desirable for the experimenters to have inde­ again and score each item as a hit, a miss, or unsure. pendently communicated with the Ms parents. Indeed, it Finally, the sitter designated which of the two transcripts would have been better if they, rather than GD, did all the was the one that actually was intended for him or her. checking. Instead, everything depends upon GD. Such The hypothesis was that if Campbell could truly access reliance on a single individual in such circumstances is called information from the sitter's departed acquaintances, this by psychologists "the fallacy of personal validation." would show up on all three measures. In other words, the sit­ "Replication" of the Laurie Campbell/GD Reading ters would successfully pick their own reading from the two in a Double-Blind Experiment transcripts; they would record significantly more dazzle shots What is required, of course, is a successful replication of these in their own transcripts as compared with the control tran­ apparently spectacular results in a reading conducted under scripts; and they would find many more hits and fewer misses properly double-blind conditions. Indeed, this is precisely in the actual as opposed to the control transcript. Each one of what Schwartz claims he has achieved. He and his colleagues these three predictions failed. Four of the sitters did correctly finally conducted a double-blind experiment using Campbell pick their own transcript, but this is consistent with the chance as the medium and six sitters, one of whom was GD. During expectation of three successes. On the two more sensitive

28 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER measures, there were no significant differences in number of results do not warrant claiming a successful replication of pre­ dazzle shots or hits and misses. vious findings. For scientific purposes, diis is all diat need be The authors admit that for the overall data, "there was no said. However, it may be edifying to discuss some additional apparent evidence of a reliable anomalous information reasons why the claim for a successful "replication" is highly retrieval effect." So how can they use these results to proclaim suspect in the present case. Three of the six sitters for this a "breathtaking" vindication of their previous findings? This is experiment were selected just because Campbell had provided because, when they looked at the results separately for each sit­ "successful" readings for them in previous experiments. They ter, they discovered diat in die case of GD, who had been die were included to see if she could do so again. For two of them. star sitter in a previous experiment with Campbell, he not only successfully identi­ fied his own transcript but also found nine The authors admit that for the overall data, dazzle shots in this transcript and none in "there was no apparent evidence of a reliable the control. The results for the hits and misses were equally striking. He found only anomalous information retrieval effect." a few misses in his own transcript and a So how can they use these results to proclaim large number of misses in the control. He found many hits in his own transcript and a "breathtaking" vindication of their not a single one in die control transcript. previous findings? Given this "unanticipated replication," the authors hail the results as compelling sup­ port for their survival hypodiesis. However, for anyone trained the authors admit that she failed. So it is only for GD diat, in in statistical inference and experimental methodology, this will their view, she apparently succeeded. appear as just anodier blatant attempt to snatch victory out of Comparing the two readings that Campbell gave GD, I the jaws of defeat. An accepted principle of research method­ find little to support die claim diat die second one replicates ology is that the reporting of statistical significance from the apparent success of the first one. Although a full transcript experimental findings derives meaning from the fact that the of the first GD reading is still not available, what was included experimenter specifies in azivance which comparisons he or she in the first report strongly suggests that the second reading will test. If the experimenter plans to make many comparisons, cannot be considered to be aimed at the same individual for then the criteria for statistical significance must be adjusted to whom the first one was given. GD's major interest in medi- take into account that the more comparisons that will be made umship is to establish contact with his deceased partner the more chances there will be to find something "significant" Michael. Campbell is given credit in die first reading for stat­ just by chance. In the present case, it was obvious diat the ing that there was a deceased friend named Michael and then planned comparisons involved the overall differences between later diat he was the primary person for diis sitter. The name the ratings of die actual and the control transcripts. The Michael or a deceased partner does not come up in die second authors do not indicate whether they intended to make adjust­ reading. Ironically, the name Michael does appear in the con­ ments for the fact that they were using three different mea­ trol reading. In the first reading Laurie Campbell mentions a sures, but, in any case, it does not matter because there were strange name that sounded like Talya, Tiya, or Tilya. GD no meaningful differences on any of the three indicators. stated that he indeed had a friend (living) named Tallia. No Of course, these strictures do not preclude die investigators such name appears in die second reading. Indeed, of the from noticing unexpected outcomes in their data. Such twenty names Campbell produced in die first reading only unplanned outcomes can serve as hypotheses for new experi­ three come up in the second reading, and these arc such com­ ments. When an experimenter finds unanticipated, but inter­ mon ones as George, Robert or Bob, and Joe or Joseph. In none esting, quirks in die data, he or she cannot draw conclusions of these three cases does she identify whether the person is liv­ until the surprise finding has been cross-validated with new ing or dead or what relationship he has to GD. None of die data. The reason for diis is simple. Any set of data that is rea­ "specific" facts diat she apparently stated during the first read­ sonably complex will always, just by chance, display peculiari­ ing come up in the second one. ties. Some statisticians and methodologists do allow testing for Schwartz claims diat the rater bias could not have affected unexpected findings by means of "post hoc" tests. Such tests the ratings of this double-blind experiment. A look at GD's require diat the departures be much greater dian those needed dazzle shots and his discussion of die hit and miss data sug­ for planned comparisons before they can be declared "signifi­ gests otherwise. His first dazzle shot is "Bob or Robert." These cant." Furthermore, such post hoc tests on specific subparts of names occur early in die reading in a statement that goes, "And the data are typically licensed only when the overall tests are then I could feel like what I thought was like a divine presence significant, which is not die case for die present situation. and the feeling of a name Mary or Bob or Robert." This So, by commonly accepted scientific practice, the experi­ appears in a context with odier names and other general state­ ment has failed to support the hypodiesis it was planned to ments, none of which even hint of a fadier. The second dazzle test. Furthermore, because nothing significant was found, the shot is "George." Again diis appears in a context with no hint

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Hnu»iy/Febfuary 2003 29 that this could be referring to the sitter. Campbell states, "I got Again, I suspect that Schwartz will disagree with my inter­ like some names like a Lynn, or Kristie, a George." His third pretation. After all, he has already gone on record that this dazzle shot is the statement, "I had the feeling of a presence of study "provided incontrovertible evidence in response to the an Aunt." GD identifies this aunt as his aunt Alice, although skeptics' highly implausible argument against the single- Campbell does not provide the name Alice anywhere in the blind study that the sitter would be biased in his or her rat­ reading. I count at least twenty-seven names thrown out by ings (for example, misrating his deceased loved ones' names Campbell during this second reading. Actually, she covers a and relationships) because he knew that this information was much broader range of names because she typically casts a from his own reading." Nevertheless, the data are quite con­ wide net with statements like: "And an 'M' name. More like a sistent with the possibility that all we have to do to account Margaret, or Martha, or Marie, something with an 'M.'" It is for his "breathtaking" findings is to assume that they are due up to the sitter to find a match. As indicated by his dazzle to rater bias. shots, GD is strongly disposed to do so. In his qualitative commentary, GD was obviously influenced Conclusions in selecting one of the transcripts as his reading because it begins So what is the bottom line? The Afterlife Experiments with the statement, "I kept feeling die presence of a male." The describes a program of experiments described in four reports control reading happens to begin with die statement, "Now, um, using mediums and sitters. The studies were methodologi­ to start with I felt like a woman's energy." GD wrote, "I was cally defective in a number of important ways, not the least impressed that the reading is gender specific and accurate... ." of which was that they were not double-blind. Despite these Instead of assuming that Campbell was somehow conveying defects, the authors of the reports claim that their mediums information to GD from his departed relatives, it is just as plau­ were accessing information by paranormal means and that sible to assume that once GD decided diat the actual transcript the application of Occam's Razor leads to the conclusion that was meant for him, then subjective validation took over and did the mediums are indeed in contact with the departed friends the rest. There is, of course, a 50/50 chance that the actual read­ and relatives of the sitters. Schwartz's demand that the skep­ ing is the one that GD will decide is meant for him. From then tics provide an alternative explanation to their results is on, he would read that transcript as if it were truly describing his clearly unwarranted because of the lack of scientifically departed relatives and reject die odier as not relevant. acceptable evidence. A fifth report describes a study that was This conjecture fits well with everything we know about designed to be a true double-blind experiment. The out­ subjective validation and the acceptance of personality come, by any accepted statistical and methodological stan­ sketches that one believes was meant for one's self. Is this far­ dard, failed to support the hypothesis of the survival of con­ fetched in GD's case? To me, it seems quite obvious just read­ sciousness. Yet the experimenters offer the results as a ing the transcript and looking at GD's ratings. The entire "breathtaking" validation of their claims about the existence case for the reading's validity is based on the assumption that of the afterlife. This is another unfortunate example of trying Campbell is describing GD's summer vacation home on to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Lake Erie in upstate New York. Given this assumption every­ thing is then interpreted within this context. Of course, Notes Campbell never states that she is describing a summer vaca­ 1. Fans of Martin Gardner will recognize the similarity of this title to that of Martin's book How Not to Test a Psychic (1989, Prometheus Books). 1 thank tion home. It is GD who makes this connection. As just one Martin Gardner for his agreeing to let me adapt his title for this review. of many examples of how GD is creative in making the read­ 2. The principle usually attributed to William of Occam is typically stated ing fit his circumstances, he gives Campbell credit for having as "entities arc not to be multiplied beyond necessity." This statement, as such, cannot be found in the extant writings of William. The principle was known identified the color of their summer cottage which was before William was born. However, he did write many different statements painted yellow with white trim on the windows. Campbell that are consistent with die principle such as, "It is vain to do with more what does, at one point, say, "And I kept getting colors of like yel­ can be done with fewer." 3. Wiseman, R., and C. O'Keeffe. 2001. Accuracy and replicability of low and white." This is in a context where she is talking anomalous after-death communication across highly skilled mediums: A cri­ about a woman who spends all her time in the kitchen. One tique. The Paranormal Review, 19: 3-6. (Also in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. could construe this as perhaps describing the interior colors November/December 2001.) 4. Schwartz, G.E. 2001. Accuracy and replicability of anomalous after- of the kitchen, the woman's clothing, the old mixer she is death communication across highly skilled mediums: A call for balanced evi­ described as using, among other possibilities. However, the dence-based skepticism. The Paranormal Review. 20. statement is far removed for any mention of the exterior of 5. For discussion of this concept and for a very striking illustration of sub­ jective validation in operation see Marks, D. (2000, second edition), The the house as such. Earlier in the reading she mentions a white psychology of the Psychic. Amherst, N.Y.: Prometheus Books. house. A little bit further on, she again mentions a house. 6. Schwartz, G.E., S. Geofftion, J. Shamini, S. Lewis, and L Russek. She immediately follows this with "And I kept seeing the col­ (Submitted to die Journal of the Society for Psychical Research.) Evidence of anomalous information retrieval between two research mediums: Replication ors of like grays and blues, but that looked real weathered." in a double-blind design. (I obtained a copy of this report from Professor Obviously, if the house had been gray and blue, Campbell Schwartz in August 2001.) would have been given credit for a direct hit. GD manages to 7. Unfortunately, the double-blind procedure was not ideal. The research coordinator, who was aware of the sitter's identity, phoned Laurie Campbell ignore this and gives Campbell credit for having correcdy and the sitter just before the reading. In this way. the medium had contact described the house as yellow and white. with someone who was aware of sitter's identity just prior to the reading. D

30 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Beliefs on Trial, and the Legality of Reasonableness

Ever thought about becoming a lawyer? Here's your chance to don a black robe and horsehair wig, and apply some legal principles to skeptical inquiry.

RICHARD M. FISHER

et's face it: skeptics are party poopers. Who can deny how wonderful it is to harbor a hope that we might one Lday see with our own eyes a captured, living specimen of a previously unknown animal from a highland lake, or a dead but very real ex­ traterrestrial, wheeled out for public display by a sheepish and apolo­ getic Defense depart­ ment? Who wouldn't appreciate confirmation of a remote letter or telepathic phone call from a departed loved one saying that all is well in the next world, espe­ cially one that chides us to "stay in touch"? How comforting it would be to know that we interest than you do in holding onto a belief for a cure. are not alone in the universe, and that we need never be lonely Consequently, we can see that quantifying the amount of in the here or hereafter. evidence required to discharge a burden of proof can be quite The skeptic stands in stark contrast to this desire for belief subjective. The critical juncture at which I have seen enough in what sustains us emotionally. Arms folded sternly, a skeptic evidence in order to be convinced of the truth of a claim could has the affront to rain on everyone's parade by demanding not be very different from yours, in some cases dramatically so. only proof of an assertion, but extraordinary proof to boot. In order to equalize the playing field, skeptics turn to sci­ And therein lies the rub. Believers can claim that they can't sat­ ence, or the scientific method, for help. The scientific method isfy a skeptic, because the standard of proof demanded by skep­ demands absolute objectivity and a rigorous framework for tics is too high. They'll argue that maxims like "extraordinary investigating phenomena. A hypothesis is erected, and data are claims demand extraordinary prOOr would never stand up in a gathered, with the result that the hypothesis is ultimately court of law. To require that a claimant has to provide extraor­ accepted or rejected. The person proposing the hypothesis dinary proof would be tantamount to requiring proof not just bears the burden of proof. The standard of proof in discharg­ ing it, in many instances, is one based on probabilities. For publishing in most scien­ tific journals, the minimum standard is P < Key legal concepts, such as burden of proof 0.05. In other words, in order to convince and standards of proof, can add value to skeptical me, and others, that the results are valid, you must be able to show, by statistical inquiry. Since trial lawyers are essentially paid analysis, that if you repeated the experiment skeptics, it seems only fair to ask if they have 100 times, you would be expected to get the same result 95 times out of 100. It any useful investigative tools to offer. would be even nicer if you agreed to a more stringent standard of P < 0.01 (99 times out of 100) or P < 0.001 (999 times out of beyond a reasonable doubt, but beyond all possible doubt. 1000). [But also see "Hypothesis Testing and the Nature of Stated another way, people are currently doing life for murder Skeptical Arguments," by Massimo Pigliucci, SKEPTICAL on a lesser standard than a skeptic would require. Is that fair? INQUIRER, November/December 2002.) Key legal concepts, such as burden of proof and standards of proof, can add value to skeptical inquiry. Since trial lawyers Skepticism as a Matter of Law are essentially paid skeptics, it seems only fair to ask if they have Scientific measurements of probability work well when inves­ any useful investigative tools on offer. I argue that skeptics do tigating phenomena like ESP, which lend themselves to repet­ themselves a disservice by acting as judge, juror, and execu­ itive experimentation. However, they fail us when claims tioner in debunking paranormal phenomena. Instead, I intro­ involve presence or absence arguments, as in the existence of duce an interesting character called "the reasonable person," an unknown animal. In those circumstances, we must assess a and explain how deference to this lively sprite allows tor a prag­ claim objectively, by reference to the type of claim being made, matic, objective approach to investigations of the unknown. the bona fides of the claimant, and other relevant circum­ stances. We are no longer dealing with the issue as one of Scientific Standards and the Burden of Proof experimentation. Rather, we have become triers of fact. We The general maxim in most inquiries is that the burden of have put the claimant "on trial," and, like any good justice sys­ proof lies on the party making the claim (or a claim that con­ tem, we seek cogent and persuasive arguments both for and tradicts established theory; see Caso 2002). However, the point against the claim. We weigh that evidence objectively, and ulti­ at which the burden of proof is discharged is much harder to mately deliver a verdict as to our acceptance or rejection of the resolve. Even if we establish with certainty who is ultimately claim under scrutiny. responsible for carrying the burden of proof, we haven't speci­ If we follow our legal line of reasoning a little further, we fied the amount of evidence that will be required to discharge can see that we must give the claimant an opportunity to call it. For example, a salesman might be able to convince me, but witnesses in support of the claim, and to adduce any other evi­ not you, that his snake oil will cure my corns. That may be dence we jointly agree is relevant to the factual issues at hand. because I'm a real rube compared to you. Or it may be diat my The claimant should have a full and fair opportunity io pre­ corns are really killing me at the moment, so I'm going to be sent a case. We in turn should have an opportunity to cross much more likely than you to take a stab at any cure, no mat­ examine the claimant's witnesses, and afterwards to adduce our ter how far-fetched it is. That's because I have a greater vested own evidence, possibly by way of expert testimony. Ultimately, a verdict of acceptance or rejection is rendered, based on the Richard M. Fisher, Ph.D., LLB, is a scientist and lawyer. He totality of the evidence presented. teaches at International Pacific College in Palmerston North, New Approaching paranormal and other phenomena as a legal Zealand. E-mail: [email protected]. inquiry offers many advantages. For one thing, it allows us to

32 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER specify the legal standard of proof that will be required to dis­ is judged to have acted reasonably, and is exonerated. charge the burden on any party. I'll return to this theme While RP can't be expected to have the deductive power of momentarily. More important, it gives decision-making power a Ph.D. in science, there isn't room for gullibility in RP's to die people who need it: not you and me, but ordinary peo­ makeup either. The reasonable person standard in tort law, for ple sitting on die jury. Why is that important? Consider for example, doesn't allow a defendant to argue diat he had an a moment. Since you and I both read this magazine, it honest but mistaken belief in the value of pouring gasoline on is likely that we already share a healthy dose of skepticism regarding what we see and experience. What we have to remember is that, as skeptics, our role is not necessarily An honest belief that poltergeists caused pictures well served by sitting as judge and jury. to move in a house which is otherwise located on Rather, we are better off acting as lawyers, distasteful though that concept may be a known fault line won't cut it as an explanation, at first glance. if a reasonable person would conclude it Believe it or not, lawyers are "officers of the court," and as such are required by law was more likely due to a mild tremor. and by ethical standards to uphold the prin­ ciples of truth and fairness. The value of acting as lawyers it that it allows us to seek out and discredit a smouldering fire in order to put it out. The standard refers false and perjurious statements, to put relevant facts before the to an ordinary person with like skills and experience as the court, and to ensure that both sides of a claim are given full defendant, standing in his shoes. Standing back from the mat­ hearing. Ultimately, it is the jurors who make the call, not you ter in this way, its pretry obvious that throwing gasoline on a or I. Who are diey? By rights, the)- include the gullible, the fire is unacceptably stupid from RP's point of view. Similarly, financially vulnerable, the terminally ill, and the bereaved. It is an honest belief that poltergeists caused pictures to move in a these folks who are most likely to be swayed towards false house which is otherwise located on a known fault line won't beliefs, for all the wrong reasons. These are the people we cut it as an explanation, if the reasonable person would con­ should be trying to reach. These are the people we should be clude it was more likely due to a mild tremor. trying to empower, by allowing them to sit in informed judg­ One might therefore argue that RP generally acts in sup­ ment on paranormal and other claims. port of Occam's Razor. The razor is a principle diat tells us not A cynic might interject at this point that it's not possible to to needlessly multiply the number of entities in order to get a balanced "jury of peers" when it comes to debunking the explain what we see. In science, for example, our best explana­ paranormal. I wouldn't go so far, although I would agree that tions are those that explain the most with the fewest number we must do what we can to guard against a loaded jury. Even of causal variables. RP isn't as slavish as the razor at accepting a loaded jury must submit to your argument, if it is sufficiently die simplest explanation, however, and takes us away from it powerful and persuasive. At the end of the day, the risk of a bad jury must be weighed against the opportunity to allow odier people besides us into the decision-making process, and Reasonable Phrases thus "reach out" to the widest possible audience. Don't say. Have I been shown enough evidence to be per­ sonally convinced? The Reasonable Person Do say. Would a reasonable person be convinced of the The law has given us a number of helpful principles that can claim, based on die totality of evidence for and against it? help in judging skeptical claims. They include such things as Don't say. The person making the claim always has the bur­ stare decisis, a common law principle whereby the rulings in den of proof. previous cases wiuH similar fact evidence are to be followed, Do say. While the claimant may have the ultimate burden of proof, I am prepared to accept an evidential burden of wherever possible. That means that someone now claiming to providing contradictory proof, as and where necessary. have the power of ESP, following a long line of ESP cases that have not shown persuasive proof of die claim, will be decided Don't just say. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. die same way, barring new and novel evidence. Do say, in addition: It's reasonable in some circumstances to Another very interesting legal principle is "die reasonable require mat extraordinary claims require extraordinary person [RP] standard." Although largely a child of tort and proof. contract law, RP wanders extensively throughout most areas of Try not to say (even if it requires some tongue biting on jurisprudence. In a claim of negligence, for example, RP is the your pan): The claimant is a quack/crackpot/fool, ctc standard to which the behavior of a defendant is compared. II Try to say. with charity. The law teaches us mat ad Imminent a reasonable person, with like education, experience, and attacks are unhelpful in seeking truth. It instructs us to capacity as the defendant, would have acted in the same way concentrate on die evidence. Where is yours? when faced with die same circumstances, than the defendant

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/Februaty 2003 33 whenever it would be reasonable to do so. the evidential burden then falls on us to refute the evidence The Reasonable Person also protects us from extraordi­ shown, or provide other, contrary evidence. The evidence that nary claims made by experts. This is very useful, because we each of the parties provides is assessed, in terms of its "proba­ often seek to defer to the expert opinions of those more tive value." That value is equivalent to the weight of a given trained than ourselves. Unfortunately, some of these folks piece of evidence in proving or disproving a fact at issue. The aren't as skeptical as we are, and some are out-and-out flakes. probative value of a blurry photo will be low, an organic tissue That's a problem, because the credentials of professionals sample very high. lend credence to their beliefs, however outrageous. A fair generalization is that in law there are many moments Fortunately for us, RP will have none of it. For example, if when the evidential burden can be shifted from one side to the other, as and when parts of a claim are proved or disproved. As a result, we don't need to spend time worrying about where Suppose someone wanders into town with the burden of proof compass points, because we are much more likely to be a story of an encounter with Bigfoot, interested in assessing the claim in its including some photos. If we use a legal entirety. If, after weighing all the evidence, a jury would believe the claimant's Bigfoot framework, they would have the legal burden story, then the equivalent of that party's of proving the existence of the creature. legal burden has been discharged. Which Standard of Proof? The Reasonable Person revisits us in terms an air traffic controller makes a claim that he or she has wit­ of legal standards of proof. In criminal law, reasonableness is nessed a UFO on a radar screen, RP demands an answer to central to "proof beyond a reasonable doubt," although fur­ the following question: "Would a reasonable air traffic con­ ther explanation of this application is necessary, as it would troller, with similar background and experience to the be in any jury trial. If in a mock trial of paranormal phe­ claimant, have been led to the same inescapable conclusion?" nomena, for example, we demanded that a claim of clair­ This line of inquiry weeds out extremists really quickly, voyant power was proven beyond a reasonable doubt, the including experts. trial judge would be required to explain to the jury what "beyond a reasonable doubt" meant before sending them off Burdens of Proof to consider a verdict. There are standard definitions to Thanks to the O.J. Simpson trials, most people now know which judges refer when defining the term to juries. One that there are different legal standards of proof, including a from Lord Denning in the United Kingdom (quoted by civil standard of "proof on the balance of probabilities," and a Mathieson 1997) runs like this: more stringent criminal standard of "proof beyond a reason­ Proof beyond a reasonable doubt does not mean proof beyond able doubt." They also know, again thanks to O.J. Simpson, the shadow of a doubt. The law would fail to protect the com­ that applying the different standards can lead to drastically dif­ munity if it admitted fanciful possibilities to deflect the course ferent outcomes. of justice. If the evidence is so strong against a man as to leave only a remote possibility in his favour, which can be dismissed Before we apply the standards, however, we need to know with the sentence "of course it is possible but not in the least who has the legal burden of proof. The law is much more probable" the case is proved beyond reasonable doubt, but fluid in this regard than you might think. In a criminal nothing short of that will suffice. charge, for example, it's not always the case of "innocent until proven guilty." There are many charges for which you Note that we are applying reasonable doubt in a civil con­ are considered guilty unless proven to the contrary by you. text, so that the burden lies on the claimant, for reasons we just They include traffic infractions like speeding and parking, discussed. Why should we use a criminal standard of proof in and strict liability offenses like some pollution offenses, debunking phenomena, rather than a lesser one "on the bal­ where you are considered guilty subject to your success in ance of probabilities"? We could offer the lame—although cor­ raising a due diligence defense. rect—answer that proof beyond a reasonable doubt is a strin­ Let's put our legal training to work in a hypothetical fact gent, and therefore useful, model available to us from hun­ case. Suppose someone wanders into town with a story of an dreds of years of law practice. Further, we are only borrowing encounter with Bigfoot, including some photos. If we use a the procedural elements of the standard, and are not applying legal framework, that person would have the legal burden of them stricdy in die context of guilt or innocence. However, proving the existence of the creature throughout all that fol­ lows. However, by handing us some photos, and an eyewitness BELIEFS ON TRIAL AND THE LEGALITY story, they have discharged an evidential burden of proof. That OF REASONABLENESS is, they have provided evidence, sketchy though it may be, and Continued on page 38

34 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Placebos, Nocebos, and Chiropractic Adjustments

Appropriate spinal manipulation provides both real and placebo benefits in the treatment of mechanical-type neck and back problems. But chiropractic adjustments based on the vertebral subluxation theory may offer a placebo effect that is outweighed by a nocebo effect.

SAMUEL HOMOLA, D.C.

he word placebo, which is Latin for "I shall please," first appeared in the literature in 1785 and was even­ Ttually defined as "make-believe medicine." Physi­ cians have long known that if a patient believes in a doctor or a remedy, the response to treatment is better—even if the treatment is a sham. Doctors quickly learned to make an effort to cultivate the confidence of their patients in order to make treatment more effective. The beneficial effect of faith or belief in a treatment method is now known as a "placebo effect," which can occur when treatment is pretended or as an additional benefit when the treatment is real. Of course, a placebo works pri­ marily on the mind, making the patient believe that he or

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER lanuj.y'Ftbruary 2003 she is feeling better, even though there may be no real effect on patients into depending upon a nonsensical treatment the disease itself. But there is reason to believe that a placebo method. An alternative healer might interpret the placebo effect may offer some temporary physical benefit. effect as proof that his particular remedy is a truly effective treatment for disease. And when remission or natural recovery Placebo Controversy occurs, as often happens, anecdotal evidence derived from It's well known that faith in a make-believe treatment may actu­ patients' testimony is offered as proof that a cure has occurred. ally help relieve pain by stimulating the brain's production of Many alternative medicine practitioners using methods endorphins. But according to an article in the May 24, 2001, based on vitalistic nonsense capitalize on the placebo effect by using it to sell courses of treatment to suggestible persons. In some cases, a treat­ Reviews of the literature suggest that spinal ment that initially has a positive placebo manipulation is effective in the treatment of some effect can ultimately have a negative nocebo effect, leading to dependence upon types of neck and back pain, but this has nothing the treatment. This happens most often to do with the chiropractic subluxation theory. when the remedy used to treat the disease is also used to "remove the cause of dis­ ease." Probably the best example of treat­ issue of the New England Journal of Medicine (Hrobjartsson and ment that has both placebo and nocebo effects is a chiro­ Gotzsche 2001), such pain relief is too small to warrant use of practic spinal adjustment based on the vertebral subluxation placebos except in clinical trials. The researchers concluded theory. Active medications of real value can also produce that there is little evidence that placebos have any powerful nocebo effects when a patient is fearful and has expectations clinical effects or any significant effect on objective outcomes. of adverse effects, though benefit may outweigh risk (Barsky Three months after that report, a study published in et al. 2002). But when a patient receives repeated spinal Science (Fuente-Fernandez, Ruth, and Sossi 2001) reported adjustments to correct imaginary subluxations believed to be that Parkinson's disease patients who took an inactive placebo a cause of disease, risk outweighs benefit. drug experienced a substantial increase in release of a brain chemical called dopamine, temporarily relieving their symp­ The Nocebo Effects of Chiropractic Spinal toms. "This is not a small effect,' the researchers noted. "This Adjustments is a big effect." The February 7, 2002, issue of Sciencexpress There is plenty of evidence to indicate that spinal manipula­ also reported findings challenging the NEJM report suggesting tion has beneficial effects—both real and placebo. When that the placebo effect is not significant. Using positron emis­ spinal manipulation is based upon the vertebral subluxation sion tomography, scans of the brain showed that inactive med­ theory, however, as presented by some chiropractors who offer ication and placebos, like opioids, influenced brain centers to "spinal adjustments" as a treatment for organic disease, nocebo produce pain relief (Ingvar 2002). effects outweigh the placebo effects. Spinal manipulation used No physician would knowingly substitute an inert placebo to relieve back pain or restore joint mobility ends when symp­ for a proven treatment. No one would seek out a physician toms are relieved and the patient is released. But when the who treats primarily with placebos. But like it or not, the benefits of spinal manipulation are attributed to correction of placebo effect is a part of ever)' treatment administered by life-threatening subluxations, fear perpetuates treatment. every trusted and well-liked physician or therapist. And this is Many chiropractors believe that subluxations "compromise okay if the placebo effect is associated with an evidence-based neural integrity and may influence organ system function and treatment and the patient is not given misinformation. general health" (Association of Chiropractic Colleges 1997) and that spinal adjustments to correct subluxations will restore Placebos and Quacks and maintain health—a scientifically indefensible position. The placebo effect opens a window of opportunity for quacks There is no evidence that such subluxations exist. Reviews of and cultists who take advantage of the effect to obtain testi­ the literature suggest that spinal manipulation is effective in monial-type support for a variety of unsubstantiated treatment the treatment of some types of neck and back pain (Coulter et methods. A true quack may offer a placebo or a make-believe al. 1996; Bigos et al. 1994), but this has nothing to do with treatment along with a fabricated explanation that misleads the chiropractic subluxation theory. One prominent researcher in the field of complementary medicine has suggested that Samuel Homola, D.C., is the author of thirteen books, including ". . . the therapeutic success of spinal manipulation is largely Bonesetting, Chiropractic, and Cultism (1963) and Inside due to a placebo effect" (Ernst 2000). When manipulation is Chiropractic: A Patient's Guide, published in 1999 by Prometheus used inappropriately as an ongoing treatment for elusive chi­ Books. His latest book. The Chiropractor's Self-Help Back and ropractic subluxations, however, the nocebo effect may be Body Book, was published by Hunter House in August 2002. He more prominent than the placebo effect. retired in 1998 after forty-three years of full-time practice as a chi­ Placebo effects are especially prominent in unconventional ropractor. His e-mail address is [email protected]. healing because of personal attention, compassionate care.

36 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER enhanced expectations, and other effects of a close patient- forcefully separated by manipulation is meaningless. This physician relationship. A hands-on chiropractic adjustment to sound is most often produced by cavitation that pulls in nitro­ remove "nerve interference" caused by a "subluxated vertebra" gen gas to fill the vacuum created when the fiuidic attraction will have a temporarily positive influence. When self-limiting between joint surfaces is broken. Chiropractic patients, and conditions are involved, this placebo effect may outweigh the many chiropractors, interpret this sound as proof that a sub- effects of an evidence-based treatment method. But when luxated vertebra has been moved back into alignment. The there is a specific disease requiring a specific treatment, a rela­ truth is that perfectly normal spinal joints will pop when tively impersonal, evidence-based treatment method is ulti­ manipulation forces movement into the paraphysiologic space mately more effective than a placebo. When spinal manipula­ (beyond the normal range of passive movement). Once a joint tion is used inappropriately as an ongoing treatment for elu­ pops, it will not pop again until the gas is absorbed and the sive chiropractic subluxations, however, the nocebo effect will joint surfaces settle back together, usually in about half an eventually become more prominent than the placebo effect. hour. It is essentially the same as cracking one's knuckles. An asymptomatic and elusive chiropractic subluxation is not If a patient is told that the pop heard during spinal manipu­ the same as an orthopedic subluxation that can be confirmed lation means that the cause of a problem has been corrected, this with both subjective and objective signs. Spinal manipulation can have a very powerful placebo effect, which may relieve pain from a medical perspective is not the same as a "chiropractic as well as convince die patient diat the treatment is effective. But adjustment." Although some chiropractors prefer to use "joint since the vertebrae pop each time the adjustment is repeated, the dysfunction" or some other term rather than subluxation, patient may become convinced that vertebrae are constantly there is no reason to believe that vertebral misalignment or any slipping in and out of place, indicating an ever-present cause of other dysfunction in structures of the spinal column can cause disease in the spine. The patient may then believe that illness organic disease (Nansel and Szlazak 1995). will occur if the imaginary spinal subluxations are not corrected by regular adjustments—a very powerful nocebo effect. Popping as Proof Some chiropractors take advantage of a patients fear ot sub­ Many chiropractic patients who receive spinal adjustments to luxations by recommending regular "preventive maintenance" restore and maintain health become convinced that they have spinal adjustments, which contribute more to the chiropractor's vertebrae out of place when they hear popping sounds during pocketbook than to the patient's health. Patients of such chiro­ treatment. Except in rare cases when a joint is truly locked or practors become psychologically addicted to treatment they do binding, the popping sound heard when joint surfaces are not need. James Cyriax, a prominent English orthopedic surgeon

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2003 37 who specializes in the use of spinal manipulation, has referred to shelter under the broad umbrella of alternative medicine, this fear as "chiropractogenic neurosis" (Cyriax 1955). depending upon anecdotal placebo evidence and the nocebo response to justify continued use of spinal adjustments to Patient Re-education "restore and maintain health." In my forty-three years of practice as a chiropractor, 1 often Without the support of evidence-based medicine, chiro­ had a difficult time convincing patients that they did not have practic may remain a marginal, unproven alternative healing vertebrae out of place and did not need regular spinal adjust­ method, making it necessary to rely upon practitioners in the ments. On many occasions, when one of the local chiroprac­ field of physical medicine to supply appropriate spinal manip­ tors was out of town, I would receive frantic calls from some ulative therapy. Although many chiropractors do a good job of the chiropractor's patients requesting an "emergency" treating neck and back pain, chiropractic treatment based on adjustment. "I stumbled," the patient might say, "and I have the vertebral subluxation theory may do more harm than jerked some of my vertebrae out of place. My doctor is out of good, with many chiropractic patients becoming victims of town and I need my alignment corrected." the nocebo effect (Homola 2001). Fearful that delay in correcting subluxations in the spine might trigger development of illness, some chiropractic patients References become permanent patients—victims of the nocebo effect. Association of Chiropractic Colleges. 1997. A position paper on chiropractic. J Manipulative Physiol Ther. 19: 633-637. When I was forced to see such patients, I was compelled to Barsky. A., R. Saintfort, M. Rogers, and J. Borus. 2002. Nonspecific medica­ inform them that nothing was wrong with their spine and that tion side effects and the nocebo phenomenon. Journal of the American they had been misinformed. Some of these patients were actu­ Medical Association 287(5): 622-^27. Bigos, S., O. Bowyer. and G. Braen. ct al. 1994. Acute Low Back Problems in ally fearful of bending over to pick up a newspaper or turn their Adults. Agency Cot Health Care Policy and Research: AHCPR publication head while backing a car lest they disturb the alignment of their 95-0642. vertebrae. They were literally vertebral cripples as the result of a Coulter I., E. Hurwitz. A. Adams, ct al. 1996. The Appropriateness of Manipulation and Mobilization of the Cervical Spine. RAND 18-43. totally imaginary problem—products of the practice-building Cyriax. J. 1955. Journal of Textbook of Orthopedic Medicine. London: Cassell. efforts of a few unscrupulous or misinformed chiropractors. Ernst, E. 2000. Does spinal manipulation have specific treatment effects? Family Practice 17(6): 554-556. Fuente-Fernandez, R„ T. Ruth, and V. Sossi, ct al. 2001. Expectation and Appropriate Spinal Manipulation is Not dopamine release: Mechanism of the placebo effect in Parkinsons disease. Alternative Medicine Science 295: 1164-1166. Homola, S. 2001. Chiropractic: Does the bad outweigh the good? SKEPTICAL Appropriate spinal manipulation is used for a specific reason INQUIRER 25(1): 50-53. for specific mechanical-type problems; when it is indicated, Hrobjartsson, A., and P. Gotzsche. 2001. Is the placebo powerless? An analy­ there is no better alternative. Spinal manipulation based upon sis of clinical trials comparing placebo with no treatment. New England Journal of Medicine 344: 1594-1602. an unproven theory that encompasses the gamut of human ail­ Ingvar M. 2002. Scans show placebo acts on brain's pain center. Sciencexpress ments, however, is unproven treatment, falling in the category (online edition of Science) 10 (February 7): 1126. of alternative medicine, a haven for a variety of nonsensical Kaptchuk, T. 2002. The placebo effect in alternative medicine: Can the per­ formance of a healing ritual have clinical significance? Ann Intern Med treatment methods. 136: 817-825. If the chiropractic profession fails to prove or abandon the Nansel, D., and M. Szlazak. 1995. Somatic dysfunction and the phenomenon subluxation theory and train properly limited chiropractors of visceral disease simulation: A probable explanation for the apparent effectiveness of somatic therapy in patients presumed to be suffering from who specialize in the care of back pain, it may continue to seek true visceral disease. / Manipulative Physiol Ther. 18: 379-397. D

BELIEFS ON TRIAL AND THE LEGALITY at my attempts to transfer legal principles. This should in no OF REASONABLENESS way be interpreted as an attempt on my part to cop out with a last-minute waiver on the value of what I've attempted. I From page 34 think that the most useful aspect of applying a legal frame­ work to skeptical inquiry is that, by and large, people respect why not let RP leap to the rescue? According to RP, the stan­ the law. It is something to which people can relate, unlike a dard of proof will depend on what is reasonable in the cir­ single, wavering candle of science. The candle burns entic­ cumstances. Stated another way, it may be perfectly reasonable ingly, but is always in danger of being snuffed out. Perhaps to require not just proof beyond a reasonable doubt, but extra­ more important, science can teach us only what is possible; ordinary proof, if that is what would be expected from any the law teaches us what is permissible. In deferring to it, we other person standing "in the shoes of the claimant," in other can bring science and all that it offers to a public place, where words someone with like qualifications and experience, in the people can judge its value for themselves. Such an approach same circumstances. is, after all, only reasonable.

Some Final Advice References I've suggested a fresh approach to skepticism by referring to a Caso, A. 2002. Three skeptics' debate tools examined. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 26(1): 37—41. rich history of skeptical investigation that has been occurring Mathieson. D.L (ed) 1997. Cross on Evidence. 6th New Zealand edition. in courts for a very long time. Legal professionals may growl Butterworths. Wellington. D

38 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Pliny the Elder Rampant Credulist, Rational Skeptic, or Both?

Pliny the Elders Natural History was the premier source of information about the natural world for fifteen hundred years. Yet it contains blatant absurdities. What does that tell us about Pliny, and, perhaps, ourselves?

KEN PAREJKO

ew biological adaptations such as hemoglobin, feathers, placenta, or eyes are not produced by nat­ Nural selection de novo. It is likely that good evolu­ tionary reasons, which increased the biological fitness of our ancestors, resulted in the human brain's ability to consider, weigh, and decide. It seems too that the easy acceptance of superstition may have served the species in some way, or magical thinking would not have arisen and survived. The battle between magical and more scientific thinking did not begin yesterday. Imagine yourself eavesdropping by a Paleolithic campfire:

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2003 Lagen, torch in hand, rises: "Well, time to get back in the cave Some would say there are aspects of the Dionysian we may need, and paint another bison. " to be healthy humans. But whether superstition and the primi­ Murd, shaking his head: "I don't know why you bother. ..." tive will-to-power can be destructive or not is no longer open to debate, given our history of religious fanaticism, Inquisitions, Lagen: "You want to eat, don't you! It's by capturing the spirit- power of the buffalo that they allow us to kill them. " tribal nationalisms and more recendy, New Age credulity. In their study of the natural world Aristotle and his student Murd: "What a silly idea. You'd be better off spending your time Theophrastus provided the fundament of Roman natural philos­ down by the river, studying the herd." ophy. In 22 A.D. Gaius Plinius Secundus, usually referred to as Pliny the Elder to dif­ ferentiate him from his nephew Pliny the Younger, was born into a Roman culture with Pliny's Natural History, an encyclopedic one foot still deeply implanted in the cult of compendium of Roman knowledge, magic and supernaruralism and the other resting more timidly in the landscape of was called "one of the most precious monuments Thales and Aristotle's rational empiricism. that has come down to us from ancient times." Pliny was a dyed-in-the-wool Stoic. The early Stoic Chrysippus, who some say was a better logician than Aristotle himself, described phi­ losophy as an orchard, with logic its walls, That conversation continued ten millenia ago, when of the natural philosophy (later called science) its trees, and ethics its five million or so of us on earth only a few were just beginning fruit. The primary purpose of a Stoic life is to live virtuously. This to farm and keep animals. Without the rational thinking and means to live according to natural law (to "follow nature"), and the empirical method it is likely no crops or cattle would have to understand natural law one needs to study and understand the been domesticated, no advances made in metallurgy or pot­ world. Stoic ethics, in other words, is informed by and grows nat­ tery; yet cave-paintings, grave-sites, and other artifacts are evi­ urally out of science (Becker 1998). dence of a world-view saturated with magical thinking. Pliny's Natural History, an encyclopedic compendium of Until 495 B.C. the city of Miletus was the greatest of the Roman knowledge, was called by Cuvier "one of the most pre­ Greek cities when, after an unsuccessful revolt against the cious monuments that has come down to us from ancient Persian tyrants who controlled it, the city was destroyed. In the times" (Cuvier 1854). Though from his work comes the mod­ Western philosophical tradition, it was in Miletus that the first ern usage of the word "encyclopedia," Pliny did not invent the clearly recognizable steps toward rational empiricism took place. genre. Compendia of Roman knowledge were quite popular at There Thales provided carefully thought-out natural rather than and around his time, when we have Seneca's Natural supernatural explanations for phenomena such as eclipses. From Quaestiones, Celsus's Artes, Varro's Disciplinae, Columella's De our perspective his conclusions might seem quaint (e.g., that the Re Rustica. and Dioscorides's medical encyclopedia. But Pliny fundamental element of the universe is water, and that Earth is took the genre to the extreme. In his introduction he claims to floating in a great cosmic sea). But it was the methodology of cite 100 authors of some 2,000 books, from which he claims rational inquiry which set Thales, Anaximander, Empedocles, to discuss 20,000 topics. He is one of the first authors to pro­ Leucippos, and Anaximenes apart from their colleagues. vide citations at the end of each chapter, and to organize his Alongside the Milesians there remained a strong school of work with a table of contents. mysticism and other-worldliness, derivative of Orphism and Though there may be 20,000 topics in his Natural History, represented in the philosophical tradition by the great mathe­ the simple fact is that far too many of the "facts" Pliny provides matician Pythagoras (whose religion, Bertrand Russell says in us are not facts at all, but unverified anecdotes reported as his History of Western Philosophy, was based on two principles: facts. If we were to swing an imaginary "B.S." detector over first the transmigration of souls and secondly the sinfulness of Pliny's book, the meter would read off-scale. What do we eating beans). The contrast between the rational and mystical make of this? How does it affect our judgment of poor Gaius aspects of life is often epitomized as the conflict between the Plinius? Is he a rampant credulist, rational skeptic, or both? Apollonian and the Dionysian. Like a vestigial organ which The evidence he leaves in his Natural History suggests that once served a purpose, the Dionysian remains and is likely to Pliny was no different from most of us. His belief system and remain so long as the species exists. Intuition and magical think­ the structure by which he explained the world grew naturally ing have long been used to explain or control those phenomena out of the culture in which he was raised and lived, and though beyond the ken of the empirical method. As science has come to he might now and then reach beyond that culture, unlike either explain more and more of the natural world, the utility of mag­ Thales or Aristotle, Pliny was neither genius nor pioneer. ical thinking, though perhaps not its ubiquity, has declined. Yet Pliny stood at a significant decision point of Western history, when one pathway to the future could have followed The author is a professor of biology at the University of Wisconsin- Stoic ethics towards the close study of nature and our role in it. Stout. E-mail: [email protected]. Instead, within a few centuries of his death the dark barbarity

40 lanuary/febtuary 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER of the Church fell over Europe, arresting the nascent rational­ should eat a rat. (30.46) ity of pagan philosophy. The evidence we have, as we read his If you've hit or thrown something at someone, and regret it, merely spit in the palm of the hand which did the deed, and Natural History, suggests Pliny was a conflicted man, with a all resentment on the part of die other will disappear. (28.7) deep belief in skepticism and rational inquiry, yet unable to rise (Before reporting this, Pliny says: "It is surprising, but easily out of the magical thinking endemic around him. tested....") What follows is evidence first of Pliny's gullibility, then of his skepticism, and then of that boggy ground in which Pliny Pliny the Skeptic wavers between the two. If space allowed, it would be possible Regarding astrology, he notes that people may be born the to expand these examples many times over. Book and chapter same moment but have entirely different fates. (7.50) citations to Pliny's Natural About the afterlife: We do not History are provided. breathe differently from the other animals, and there are some Pliny the Credulist which live longer than us, so why do we not assume they, too arc That the water sheep and cattle immortal? And, if the soul does drink turn them hl.uk. white, or not have substance, how can it red. (2.106) think, or hear, see or touch? That the human body weighs Where arc all the souls of the more after death or when a- countless dead? . . . "These are sleep. (7.18) fictions of childish absur­ That in Ethiopia one can find dity. ..." (7.56) winged horses with horns, called He quotes the Greek author pegasi, the mantichora, with the Euanthes, who describes a were­ lace of a man, body of a lion, and \ '• - sCv** , '.N^_ wolf. Pliny then adds: "It is really tail of a scorpion, and the cato- J^j^Skp. wonderful to what a length the blcpas, a look into the eyes of credulity of the Greeks will go! '•' which causes the looker to fall There is no falsehood, if ever so dead. (8.30) barefaced, to which some of The porcupine can shoot its EB them cannot be found to bear A k t. quills. (8.53) L< r testimony." (8.34) If a shrew runs across a whecl- Some say the reason no one rut, it dies. (8.83) has ever seen a vulture's nest is Frogs melt away into slime in because thc}~ nest in the opposite the fall and come back together as hemisphere: but in fact it is frogs in the spring, by some "hid­ Kifekl %/^ A because they nest high up in den operation of nature." (9.74) : mountains. (10.7) A fish called the anthiae, '' \ '4*ri flWr0^ '- Regarding a bird called the which rescue their hooked com­ |fl|^ sangualis, while some say it has panions by cutting the fish-line jffc not been seen in Rome since the with their fin. (9.85) time of Mucius, "for my part I Plagues of flies in Egypt are think it much more likely that in killed by sacrifices to Isis. (10.40) : the general slackness that prevails (Pliny, like many Romans, ••^^..f'--^^S^/y ^9?. they have not been tecognized." appears especially gullible to (10.8) (Pliny is warning here that Egyptian religious rituals: but *t£& when interest in knowledge that may simply represent his ^.Jv . ,-*> I wanes, false inferences are more . y-s *i V- 1 desire to please his patron, the &£ common; a topical observation?) 1 •Cy*- emperor Titus, who was very M -Crv- £N£«--T ^ He says "I know for a fact" taken with things Egyptian.) Pliny meets his demise at Mt Vesuvius that owls landing on roofs are not Thunder addles eggs, the cry of portents of evil. (10.16) a hawk spoils them. (10.75) "A story is told about the mournful song of swans at their After covering, the marc runs north if she's just conceived death—a false story as I judge on the strength of a certain a mare colt, south if a stallion colt. (10.83) number of experiences." (10.32) In India there arc three-foot locusts, which people dry uSe While soothsayers claim the settling of a swarm of bees is bodies of and use the legs for saws. (11.35) (Here, Pliny hedges an evil omen, a swarm settled in Drusus's camp when he had his bets, prefacing this report with "it is said that.. ..") a victory at Arbalo. (11.18) In Cyprus there lives an insect like a fly that lives in fire, "And I think that the story about screech-owls, that they which dies if it leaves the fire. (11.42) drop milk from their teats into the mouths of babies, is a fab­ There are trees which have spoken and have marched rication." (11.95) across a highway. (17.38) "For my part I am surprised that Aristotle not only To protect apples from insect attack, have a menstruating believed but published his belief that our bodies contain pre­ woman walk around the orchard naked. (17.38) monitory signs of our career.. . ." (11.114) When wheat gets diseased, it turns into oats. (18.44) Timacus says that leaves fall from trees when the sun is in Diamonds can be shattered with male goats' blood. (20.1) Scorpio because at that time of year a venom falls on them If a pregnant woman wants a child with black eyes, she from out of the sky; "but then we may justly wonder why the

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2003 41 same influence is not operative against all these trees. Most That eating rabbit makes you beautiful is just a play on trees shed their leaves in autumn, but some lose them words, "lepos" meaning graceful and "lepus" meaning a hare; later. ..."(16.34) "but [this is] so strong a belief that it must have some justifi­ When discussing Asclepiadcs, who Pliny considers a fraudu­ cation." (28.79) lent doctor, he states that the knowledge of remedies is besr acquired by personal examination and actual experience. (26.7) Reading Pliny's work one can't help but remark his blatant He will not, he says, mention love-philtres or abortives, inconsistency, on the one hand accepting patent absurdities "unless it be by way of warning or denunciation, especially as while skeptically questioning others. To Stoics like Pliny nature was God, and one view is that though he might deny God omnipo­ "For my part I am surprised that Aristotle tence—God cannot kill himself, make mortals immortal, change the past, or not only believed but published his belief make two times ten equal anything but that our bodies contain premonitory twenty (AW 2.5)—Pliny was using these mirabilia as evidence of God's ability to signs of our career...." overstep natural law, which the divinity- was sometimes required to do in order to punish human hubris. I have utterly condemned all faith in such practices." (25.7) Beagon (1992) suggests that Roman explorers who were The plant vervain is used by some for telling the future, traveling beyond the boundaries of the empire toadied to the "but it is the magicians that give utterance to such ridiculous follies...." (25.59) need of their readers by reporting as fact the most sensational He calls statements Theophrastus has made about an aphro­ anecdotes they heard in their travels. There is, she shows, a disiac "fabulous," a plant which is supposed to allow a man to strong culture of paradoxography in the first and second cen­ make love seventy times in a row—then Pliny notes (with turies, an obsession with the strange and unusual, which regret?) diat Theophrastus has (ailed to name the plant. (26.63) would have tainted Pliny's primary sources. With respect to the peony [plant], and the need to pull it up at night, and likelihood of being attacked by the wood­ Pliny dedicates his work to his friend Titus, son of the pecker of Mars while doing so and of getting hemorrhoids: "I emperor Vespasian, to whom he was also a close confidante. hold to be a fundamental lie, calculated to exaggerate the Vespasian rose out of the middle class to become emperor, and facts." (27.60) may have needed all the auctoritas he could garner to convince "Shameless beyond belief is the treatment prescribed by very famous authorities" which suggests that human semen the Roman public of his right to rule (Scott 1975.) There were cures the scorpion sting. (28.13) said to be omens predicting Vespasian's emperorship; and Examples of Pliny's disdain for magicians include: "Such is though Pliny denigrates the ubiquitous belief in Fortune, the clever cunning of the Magi in wrapping up their frauds..." skepticism of all omens and mirabilia may not have been polit­ (29.12) "But all these are nothing compared with a mixture ically wise. But perhaps Pliny is in being both credulist and that the lying Magi assert makes men invincible ..." (29.19); "Here moreover we have quite the most blatant instance of skeptic merely covering his bases, appealing to as many read­ effrontery on the part of the Magi..." (37.60) ers as possible in order to increase subscription to his book. He doubts that owi egg really helps grow hair, "Who in any Nearly two thousand years later, like Pliny we retain a neu­ case could have tried it, particularly on the hair?" (29.26) roanatomy that is surprisingly adept at accepting both the latest science and oldest superstition. Newspapers commonly feature Pliny the Uncertain articles about the cloning of humans or photos made by the About snake charming .. . "insomuch as experience has not Hubble Space Telescope alongside daily horoscopes or a descrip­ decided whether it is true or false..." (8.19) tion of an apparition of the Virgin Mary or Christ. Not long ago He argues diat air must be soluble in water, for fish respire a local paper featured an article on Jasmuheen, a "Breatharian" as we do, and air is required for the senses of hearing and who claimed never to have to eat, reported as fact. Perhaps we smell, which fish clearly possess. But then he adds: "... it is open to every person to form whatever opinion about these ought to give Pliny the last word here: "Among all things, this matters he pleases." (9.6) alone is certain—that nothing is certain, and that there is noth­ About die opinion that sea-stars give off so much heat dicy ing more proud or more wretched than man." (2.5) scorch everything they come into contact with, (9.86) he says: "I cannot readily say by what experiments this has been ascer­ tained, and I should consider a fact that dierc is daily oppor­ References tunity of experiencing to be much more worth recording." Regarding the phoenix he says "though perhaps it is fabu­ Becker, Lawrence C. 1998. A New Stoicism. Princeton. N.J.: Princeton lous " (10.2) University Press. Regarding dreams: "Here an important topic invites us and Beagon, Mary. 1992. Roman Nature: The Thought of Pliny the Elder. New York. N.Y.: Clarendon Press. one fully supplied widi arguments on both side—whether Cuvier, Baron G.L.C. F.D., quoted in iMichaud. 1854. Biogrophie Universelle. there are certain cases of foreknowledge present in the mind Vol. 35. anidc Pline. during repose, and what causes them, or whether it is a matter Pliny, the Elder. 1997. Natural History. Locb Classical Library. Cambridge. of chance like most things." (10.98) (Here he seems to recog­ Massachusetts: Harvard University Press. nize the human need to assign meaning to random events.) Scon, Kenneth. 1975. The Imperio Cult under the Flavians. New York: Arno Press O

42 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Unfazed: Mark Twain Debunks the Mesmerizer in his book Christian Science in 1907. He called Eddy "die queen and make the people laugh and shout and admire I had a of frauds and hypocrites" and feared that the rising popularity of burning desire to be a subject myself." her new religion would give her so much power that the U.S. To that end the often fractious young Twain managed to Congress itself would succumb. It took courage for Twain to have himself placed among the candidates for mesmerism on take on Christian Science at that time. During the period in the stage for three consecutive evenings. He tells us that in question she had acquired not only her own church but a spite of his eagerness to be taken under "the enchanter" Simmons's spell, to become sleepy gazing into the mesmerizer's magic disk, nothing Young Twain managed to have himself happened. He had to sit there on stage enduring the humiliation of watching placed among the candidates for mesmerism other subjects "scamper and jump" and be on the stage for three consecutive evenings. taken as heroes by the crowd. It particu­ larly galled Twain that a relatively inarticu­ He tells us that in spite of his eagerness to late man named Hicks, a local journey­ be taken under the spell, to become man, had become a crowd favorite. But on the fourth night Twain could resist the sleepy gazing into the mesmerizer's temptation no longer. This time he pre­ magic disk, nothing happened. tended to be sleepy and began to nod. He followed all of Simmons's orders and sug­ gestions and performed publishing company, a college, and heaps of money and influ­ ... all the customary marvels. But not in the customary way. ence. Perhaps as a consequence Twain had difficulty publishing I was cautious at first and watchful, being afraid the professor his book, which was rejected by Harper (infuriating Twain). Less would discover that i was an imposter and drive me from the well-known is Twain's debunking of Lorenzo Fowler, one of the platform in disgrace: but as soon as I realized that I was not in danger, I set mysell the task of terminating Hicks's useful­ deans of phrenology in the 1870s, though D.J. Lopez (2002) has ness as a subject and of usurping his place. recendy done a superb job of drawing attention to that effort It was a sufficiently easy task. Hicks was born honest, I and, in so doing, revealing not only Twain's powers of analysis, without that incumbrance—so some people said. Hicks saw critical eye, and wit, but his all-too-human failures as well. Twain, what he saw and reported accordingly, I saw more than was who was generally immune to the kinds of religious and pseudo- visible and added to it such details as could help. Hicks had no imagination; I had a double supply. He was born calm, I scientific quackery that beguiled many, was himself a model of was born excited. No vision could start a rapture in him and gullibility when it came to gei-rich-quick schemes. he was constipated as to language, anyway; but if I saw a An even earlier debunking campaign of Twain's is even less vision I emptied the dictionary onto it and lost the remnant well-known. In his encounter with mesmerism, Mark Twain of my mind into the bargain. revealed his Mencken-Randi-Sokal persona better than ever. At the end of my first half-hour Hicks was a thing of the past. . . . "Success to crime!". . . the magician soon found out The encounter took place about 1850, when Twain was a that when it came to seeing visions of a stunning and mar­ teenager, but he recounted it vividly in his autobiography. For ketable sort I could get along better without his help thin two weeks in May a Mr. Simmons, the traveling "mesmerizer," with it. astonished (and bilked) the citizens of Hannibal, Missouri. As clearly illustrated here, a combination of boldness, imagi­ "Not many people attended the first night but next day they nation, and articulate expression are essential to the debunker. had so many wonders to tell that everybody's curiosity was The absolute need for the first two of these is illustrated by fired and after that for a fortnight the magician had a prosper­ Twain's response to one of the mesmerizer's more difficult ous times." (All quotes are from Neider 1959.) challenges. Simmons would stand behind a subject and Notice that Twain characterized him straightaway as a attempt to "drive a mental suggestion into" him. "magician." The teenage Twain's initial intention had nothing to do with debunking Simmons. "1 was fourteen or fifteen Inasmuch as I was an imposter I dreaded to have this test put years old, the age at which a boy is willing to endure all things, upon me, for I knew the professor would be "willing" me to suffer all things short of death by fire, if thereby he may be do something, and as 1 couldn't know what it was, I should be exposed and denounced. However, when my time came, I conspicuous and show off before the public; and so, when I took my chance. I perceived by the tense and expectant faces saw the 'subjects' perform their foolish antics on the platform of the people that Simmons was behind me willing me with all his might. I tried my best to imagine what he wanted but nothing suggested itself. George Englebretsen teaches philosophy at Bishop's University in Lennoxville, Quebec. He is the author of numerous books and Twain feared exposure of his (not Simmons's) fraud was at articles, primarily dealing with logic. His address is Department hand. But then, eager to "go out most sensationally and spec­ of Philosophy Bishops University Lennoxville, Quebec, Canada, tacularly," his fertile imagination offered an idea that would JIM 1Z7. require fearless audacity.

44 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER There was a rusty and empty old revolver lying on the table Twain of course did not endure this pain and perform his pub­ among the "properties" employed in the performances. On lic antics in order to debunk the mesmerizer. His debunking was May Day two or three weeks before there had been a celebra­ tion by (he schools and I had had a quarrel with a big boy who merely an unintended ancillary to his campaign to become a was the school bully and I had not come out of it with credit. local hero and impress the girls. But he was genuinely and That boy was now seated in the middle of the house, halfway rightly skeptical throughout. And he was not alone in his skep­ down the main aisle. 1 crept stealthily and impressively toward ticism—at least during the early stages of his career as the mes­ the table, with a dark and murderous scowl on my face, copied from a popular romance, seized the revolver suddenly, flour­ merizer's puppet: "Up to that time a dozen wise old heads, the ished it, shouted the bully's name, jumped off the platform intellectual aristocracy of the town, had held out as implacable and made a rush for him and chased him out of the house unbelievers... . That handful of ovcrwise old gentlemen kept before the paralyzed people could interfere to save him. on shaking their heads all the first week saying they had seen no There was a storm of applause, and the magician, addressing the house, said, most impressively—"That you may know how really remarkable this is and how wonder­ They would stick a pin in my arm and bear on it fully developed a subject we have in this boy, I assure you that without a single spoken until they drove it a third of its length in, and word to guide him he has carried out what I mentally commanded him to do, to the then be lost in wonder that by a mere exercise of minutest detail. I could have stopped him at a moment in his vengeful career by a mere will power the professor could turn my arm to iron exertion of my will, therefore the poor fellow and make it insensible to pain. Whereas it was not who has escaped was at no time in danger." So I was not in disgrace. I returned to the insensible at all; I was suffering agonies of pain. platform a hero and happier than I have ever been in this world since. As regards mental suggestion, my feats of it were gone. I judged that in case I failed to guess what the professor might be willing me to do, I marvels there that could not have been produced by collusion; could count on putting up something that would answer just and they were pretty vain of their unbelief too and liked to show as well. 1 was right, exhibitions of unspoken suggestion it and air it and be superior to the ignorant and the gullible." became a favorite with the public. Whenever 1 perceived that I was being willed to do something I got up and did some­ But his performance, as he somewhat ruefully admitted a thing—anything that occurred to me—and the magician, not half-century later, conquered even them. Among that skeptical being a fool, always ratified it. clique was a Dr. Peake, the hardest nut to crack, the last to be conquered by Twain. As it happened, three or four years earlier After that performance Twain became Simmonss "king bee" Twain had been in the parlor of his home when a conversation and sole subject for the remainder of the two weeks. Notice transpired between Dr. Peake and some others. That group, that what Twain had realized was that it was not the mesmer- mostly former Virginians, were unaware of the boy's presence. izcr who is the active partner but the subject. The latter per­ The conversations concerned the burning of the Richmond the­ forms and the former merely "ratifies" it. Wasn't it Randi who ater thirty-six years earlier. Dr. Peake then spoke of his old home defined hypnotism as "two people lying to each other"? in Richmond. In describing it Peake mentioned that a hole in Not all of the mesmerizer's act was without some peril for the wall near the front entrance had been made by a British can- the subject. Having put a subject under his spell, Simmons nonball during the Revolutionary War. The boy was impressed would invite audience members to come on stage and stick enough by this ever-so tangential touch of history that he pre­ pins into the supposedly insensate victim. Naturally most sub­ served these elements of the conversation in his memory. Now, jects would wince, requiring Simmons to make elaborate three years later, on stage with Simmons, Twain was being prod­ excuses. Twain was resolved to maintain his status as a "won­ ded by the mesmerizer to conjure up a vision. Just then Dr. derfully developed" subject. Peake entered the theater.

. . . Hicks "wasn't sufficiently under the influence." But 1 did­ Without suspecting it. Dr. Peake, by entering the place, had n't wince; I only suffered and shed tears on the inside. The reminded me of the talk of three years before. He had also fur­ miseries that a conceited boy will endure to keep up his "rep­ nished me capital and was become my confederate, an accom­ utation"! . . . That professor ought to have protected me and I plice in my frauds. I began on a vision, a vague and dim one often hoped he would, when the tests were unusually severe, (that was pan of the game at the beginning of a vision; it isn't but he didn't. It may be that he was deceived as well as the oth­ best to sec it too dearly at first, it might look as if you had come ers, though 1 did not believe it nor think it possible. Those loaded widi it). The vision developed by degrees and gathered were dear good people but they must have carried simplicity swing, momentum, energy. It was the Richmond fire. Dr. Peake and credulity to the limit. They would stick a pin in my arm was cold at first and his fine face had a trace of polite scorn in and bear on it until they drove it a diird of its length in, and it; but when he began to recognize that fire, that expression then be lost in wonder that by a mere exercise of will power changed and his eyes began to light up. As soon as 1 saw that. 1 the professor could turn my arm to iron and make it insensi­ direw the valves wide open and turned on all the steam and gave ble to pain. Whereas it was not insensible at all; I was suffer­ those people a supper of fire and horrors that was calculated to ing agonies of pain. last mem one while! They couldn't gasp when I got dirough—

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Januity/f*bru*fy 2003 45 they were petrified. Dr. Peake had risen and was standing—and him—after all. Twain had been a mere boy at the time! She breathing hard. He said, in a great voice: "My doubts are ended. calmly refused to believe his protestation that when stuck with No collusion could produce that miracle. It was totally impossi­ pins he had been in real pain, replying that he had simply for­ ble for him to know those details, yet he has described them with the clarity of an eyewitness—and with what unassailable gotten there was no pain. She went to her grave convinced that truthfulness God knows 1 know!" no child could ever fashion such a hoax. I saved the colonial mansion for the last night and solidified The entire episode involving his collusion with the mes­ and perpetuated Dr. Peake's conversion with the cannon-ball merizer, his deluding of Dr. Peake and the other town skeptics, hole. He explained to the house that I could never have heard of and his failed attempt to come clean taught Twain some valu­ that small detail, which differentiated this mansion from all able lessons, which he applied many times over for the temain- other Virginian mansions and perfectly identified it, therefore the fact stood proven that I had seen it in my vision. Lawks! der of his life. Near the end of his life he concluded: It is curious. When the magician's engagement closed there So, Simmons, the mesmerizer, with the help of the fraudu­ was but one person in the village who did not believe in mes­ lent young Twain, had fooled everyone in town. Eventually (in merism and I was the one. All the others were converted but I just a few weeks) Twain grew weary of his status as a local hero, was to remain an implacable and unpersuadable disbeliever in mesmerism and hypnotism for close upon fifty years. This was and as it wore away he had only the guilty conscience to remind because I never would examine them, in after life. I couldn't. him of his sham triumph. As most readers of this journal know, The subject revolted me. Perhaps it brought back to me a pas­ few things are more difficult than convincing the gulled that sage in my life which for pride's sake I wished to forget; though they have been hoaxed—even when the one revealing the scam I thought, or persuaded myself I thought, I should never come is the perpetrator himself. Conan Doyle wouldn't accept across a "proof" which wasn't thin and cheap and probably had a fraud like me behind it. Houdini's repeated insistence that he was just a magician with­ out occult powers. Some of the editors of Social Text continued When it came to bunkum (as long as it offered no quick finan­ to take Sokal's hoax essay at face value even after he had cial rewards) Twain, at the tender age of only fifteen, had revealed his dupery. Twain wrote, "How easy it is to make peo­ become fraud-proofed. ple believe a lie and how hard it is to undo that work again!" Thirty-five years after his encounter with the mesmerizer Twain References was intent on confessing his lies and charlatanery to his mother. Lopez, Delano Jose. 2002. Snaring the Fowler: Mark Twain debunks phrenol­ ogy. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 26 (l): 33-36. He failed. She simply refused to believe him. She said she had Neider, Charles (cd.). 1959. TlxAuwbiograplnofMark Twain. New York Harper. heard what Dr. Peake had said in the theater and believed Twain, Mark 1993 [1907]. Christian Science. Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books. D

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46 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

A Maddeningly Gullible Oxford Companion ROBERT H. CORMACK, ROBERT HOLSON, and MARK C. SAMUELS

The Oxford Companion to the Body. Colin Blackmore (editor) Sheila Jennett (editor). Oxford University Press Inc., New York, 2002. ISBN 0-19-852403-X. 752 pp. Hardcover, $75.

or the skeptical reader, The Nostradamus and ouHcr "seers" arc men­ enrich scientific investigation." Oxford Companion to the Body is tioned without a hint of skepticism. Under the subject heading moon, we Fmaddening. Why? There is a Turning next to palmistry, this read that murder, suicide, madness, and wealth of solid information about the topic gets a substantial entry complete other mental disorders have been human body, including valuable med­ with a large diagram showing the main thought to be driven by lunar cycles. ical data. The topics covered are fasci­ Though this entry states that this topic nating (from Achilles' heel to pubic has been scientifically investigated, no wigs to zombies). Beautiful and useful results are revealed, and it never says illustrations, some full-page and col­ that studies find absolutely no evidence ored, are found throughout. Topics are m. for such lunar influences. nicely arranged alphabetically. There Among treatments we find an entry are some very good critiques of ques­ TIM.] on chiropractic, with a highly favorable tionable ideas (e.g., cures for baldness () \ 1 (> B1) review. We quote: "Chiropractic treat­ • o\ir\\i i Till and Charles Atlas ads). One can find ment is suitable for people of any age, fair and even-handed articles on con­ including babies, pregnant women, and troversial issues (e.g., near-death expe­ the elderly and for a wide range of con­ riences and ectoplasm). The editors are ditions, including back pain; sciatica; well known and highly respected and B< tension headaches; migraine; neck, ;J*JI, I:«mH IN shoulder and arm pain; sports injuries; the book has received good reviews. _/8IIF.II \ "i II More than 150 contributors provide a repetitive strain injury; and many other wealth of knowledge, opinions, and joint and muscle disorders." Readers of advice. So how can the book be mad­ SI are aware that chiropractic massage dening? It is because of the gullible and and manipulation can provide some uncritical treatment of many extraordi­ lines and features of the palm. While relief for pain in some of these areas, but nary and controversial claims. mentioning a couple of criticisms of they are also aware that such manipula­ Let us begin with the entry on clair­ palm reading, the article is essentially tions can be dangerous, especially when voyance that states, "On some level every­ uncritical. The second-to-last para­ the neck is involved. Also in this entry one possesses the ability for prophetic graph reads, "Today, in a world where we find, "Patients may also be treated sight: ... a man decides not to board a people are alienated in an increasingly for a range of other conditions such as plane only to learn later that his flight has technological environment, more and asthma, indigestion and the irritable crashed. Often clairvoyant abilities sur­ more are rediscovering the cultural bowel syndrome, palpitations, high face during or following times of height­ importance of hand reading for pro­ ened stress, such as serious illness or acci­ viding inner meaning to their lives. At Robert H. Cormack, Robert Holson. and dent, extreme physical danger, or near a time when science is increasingly Mark C. Samuels are faculty in the death experiences." The claim is made investigating the interrelationship of Department of Psychology, Neiv Mexico diat some people have developed die abil­ consciousness with matter, the study Institute of Mining and Technology, ity and can control it to some degree. of hand reading could significantly Socorro. NM 87801-4796.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/Febtuary 2003 47 BOOK REVIEWS blood pressure, period pains, infantile Freudian theory by modern neurological accounts, is clearly in the skeptical colic, and other conditions which may and behavioral sciences. camp. There is a good entry on not be directly related to the spine or Many entries on controversial topics pedophilia that avoids the public panic joints." No evidence whatsoever is given show healthy skepticism. The entry on regarding satanic child abuse cults and in support of these claims. There is no herbal medicine, for example, clearly the alleged horrible consequences while mention of the elusive subluxations, explains the dangers of unquestioned giving a good critical account of the very little detail regarding the theory of use of herbs and the discussion of extent of the problem. chiropractic, and no discussion of scien­ homeopathy uncompromisingly ex­ While we would like to recommend tific research concerning the effective­ poses the nonsense of the theory. The the book for its solid articles and for its ness of treatment. entry on out-of-body experiences wide coverage of novel and enticing top­ The entry on reflexology is totally makes reference to neurological events ics, we cannot do so without serious gullible, lacking even a trace of critical produced by drugs, electrical stimula­ caveats. There is just too much misin­ thinking. The accompanying diagram tion, or other causes, and while sympa­ formation and maddeningly little criti­ shows the areas on the soles of the feet thetic to historical and contemporary cal analysis of important issues. rjiat are supposedly in some way related to the various body organs. Reflexology is described as a form of complementary A Sociologist's Journey medicine, suitable for people of both sexes and all ages. The claim is made into the American Heart that "a wide range of disorders can be helped by reflexology, including back­ of Darkness ache, digestive disorders, hormonal KEVIN CHRISTOPHER imbalances, and circulatory problems." There is no mention of any research— American Exorcism: Expelling Demons in the Land of or the need for any. Plenty. By Michael Cuneo. Doubleday, New York, 2001. ISBN: 0-385-50176-5. Hardcover, $24.95. Other entries, such as those on extrasensory perception, meteopathy, and the Alexander technique, are also or skeptics and most other people, Roman Catholic ritual, Cuneo is quick egregiously uncritical. Still other topics, the word exorcism immediately to disabuse readers of the common including acupuncture, hypnosis, and Fevokes images of Catholic priests, assumption that the task of expelling lobotomy, could have benefited from a holy water, and bizarre, other-worldly demons is limited to priests. His later more skeptical approach. behavior. Most of the popular literature chapters closely examine the history and Many of the topics arc cast almost and media coverage focus exclusively on current practice of Middle-America entirely in a classical mold. Beginning this Hollywood version of modern exor­ exorcism—the deliverance ministries of with what Roman and Greek authorities cism, a vicarious adventure into the dan­ Baptist, Charismatic, and Pentecostal and mythology had to say about the gerous side of religious experience. churches and deliverance groups. Cuneo topic, the authors go on to include American Exorcism takes us beyond such is also careful to make sure die reader Biblical ideas and opinions, and curi­ cliche1 into the real believing subculture understands that although Protestant ously often fetch up somewhere in the and the broader phenomena of deliverance ministry and the resurgent Middle Ages or the nineteenth century, demonology and ritual. Catholic rite of exorcism are essentially hence ignoring the bulk of modern sci­ Author Michael Cuneo—who grass-roots practices, the renewed popu­ entific contributions to the topic! Of teaches anthropology and sociology at lar belief can be credited almost entirely greater concern to skeptics is that many Fordham University in New York to Hollywood. of the articles that include classical City—delves deeply into modern "This conjuncture of commercialism mythology also wax eloquent about American beliefs in demon possession and religious ritual, of profits and piety, Freudian attitudes to subjects as diverse and the various practices of demon should come as no surprise," Cuneo as castration, eroticism, hymen, hyste­ expulsion. Altiiough his opening chap­ writes. "Over the course of the twentieth ria, libido, and weaning. This is cer­ ters focus mostly on exorcism as a century the popular cultural industry, tainly informative, but many entries with its endless run of movies, books, and that include Freudian beliefs seem to Kevin Christopher is Public Relations digital delights, has gained a pervasive accept these as at least provisionally cor­ Director for the Committee for the influence over the national consciousness. rect, a curious point of view given the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the It has become part of die very air that definitive debunking of much of Paranormal. Americans breathe and, as such, it has

48 January/febrjary 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

attained an enormous capacity for shap­ American imagination." Modern Digging further, Cuneo finds "fairly ing everyday beliefs and behaviors. . . . Catholic liberals had hoped that exor­ reliable evidence" that Martin threw When Hollywood and its allies put out cism would be relegated to Church his­ away his religious career in the wake of the Word, somebody's guaranteed to be tory along with the other medieval trap­ "romantic intrigue"—an affair that listening" (p. 50). Cuneo repeatedly pings and customs. What such Catholics occurred in 1964 while he taught theol­ reminds the reader of the role of never anticipated, according to Cuneo, ogy part-time at Loyola University of American media in the resurgence of die was die modern media's role in breathing Chicago's Rome Center. belief in demonic possession. Only die new life into the ancient rite of exorcism. If readers are to believe Martin, Satan most willfully naive reader could over­ In the first four chapters Cuneo was hard at work in New York City in look the role of motion pictures, TV talk deftly sketches out the sundry sources the 1970s. He claims that the posses­ shows, book publishers, and the insa­ of the exorcism renewal. He begins with sions and exorcisms described in Hostage tiable appetite for publicity among exor­ the well-know pop Ursprung. William are true accounts. Cuneo checks with cism authors and self-styled "researchers" Peter Blatty's 1971 novel. The Exorcist, Catholic experts, including Franciscan after reading Cuneo's perceptive accounts and the 1973 film of the same title that Father Benedict Groeschel, the expert of the rise of demonic awareness in the it inspired. He characterizes Blatty's Catholic officials turned to in the 1970s land of plenty. work as massive structure of fantasy and 1980s when they were confronted American Exorcism is a remarkable resting on a flimsy foundation of a with the "inexplicable." Groeschel was synthesis of interviews, historical re­ priest's 1949 diary account of the pos­ not aware of anything on the scale search, media studies, and hands-on field session of a young boy in Mount Martin portrays. Furthermore Groeschel research. He interviews the various play­ Ranier, Maryland. and others insist that for the mainstream ers in the modern exorcism revival. He Cuneo then introduces the reader to Catholic Church, exorcism was the last offers compelling assessments of desires fascinating and seldom-cited sources: ex- resort; earthly explanations were pre­ and motives of the exorcists and the pos­ Jesuit priest Malachi Martin, author of ferred and pursued first. sessed—tempered by objective evidence the 1976 book Hostage to the Devil, para­ In his 1983 book People of the Lie: and judgment. He shows forbearance normal authors Ed and Lorraine Warren, The Hope for Healing Human Evil Peck and sympathy to diose who participate in and, surprisingly, the grandfather of is unequivocal about his belief in exorcism and deliverance ministry, but he pop-psychology and self-help, The Road demonic possession and remains a is also skeptical and frank. Less Traveled author Scott M. Peck. staunch believer in supernatural Cuneo begins his book with a Malachi Martin pronounced his final demonic possession to this day. Many in poignant and timely lamentation of the vows as a Jesuit in 1960 and took a posi­ the charismatic deliverance movement modern Catholic priesthood: "The past tion at the Vatican's Pontifical Biblical see People of the Lie as a mainstream val­ three decades haven't been particularly Institute. He abruptly left his post in idation of their beliefs. When Cuneo kind to the Catholic priesthood. One 1964 and the Society of Jesus in 1965. asked Peck in a phone interview would be hard-pressed to find another after being granted a provisional release whether he thought that exorcism profession that has fallen harder or fur- by Pope Paul VI. Nearly fort)' years later, would someday become the serious sub­ dicr from grace in so short a period of there are conflicting accounts of why ject of scientific investigation. Peck time." He notes the dramatic thinning Martin, such a promising scholar, left expresses doubt for absolutely shocking of the ranks beginning in the 1960s and everything behind. Cuneo writes: reasons. He is not pessimistic due to the 70s, the frantic scramble to find rele­ According to the most popular account fact that there is no credible evidence for vance in the modern world, and the (which is the one usually favored by the reality of demonic possession. endless sexual scandals. The image of Martin himself), he felt morally com­ Instead he asserts—in the tradition of a the Catholic priest, writes Cuneo, "has pelled to leave the priesthood in protest dime-a-dozen pseudoscientist rather over the new, decidedly more liberal, more often been the priest as pious direction the Catholic Church was tak­ than a trained psychiatrist—that the fraud, the priest as philanderer, the ing as a result of the Second Vatican "country's intellectual and religious priest as yesterday's man—equivocat­ Council. Unfortunately this siricken- elites," are to blame, including "the lead­ ing, beleaguered, and thoroughly soldicr-of-conscicnce version of events ership of the American Catholic hasn't always squared with the bets, hi redundant." from being a tormented conservative Church," who "have seemed deter­ In one exceptional area, however, the during his years in Rome. Martin was mined to keep the door shut." priest remains a cultural hero. "That actually a theological liberal, and while In Pan III: "Charismatic Deliverance the council was in full swing, he was area," writes Cuneo, "is exorcism, and it Ministry," Cuneo sets Catholicism aside closely (and publidy) aligned with such is die priest-as-exorcist that has some­ leading liberal lights as Monsignor and begins with an account of a fifteen- how managed, in defiance of all odds, to George Higgins and the eminent minute exorcism of a young man named retain a heroic grip on the popular American Jesuit John Courtney Murray. Paul. Paul, plagued by years of aberrant

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2003 49 BOOK REVIEWS

sexual fantasies and violent feelings, had Mike Theirer, "the hardest working of deliverance ministry and exorcism driven 200 miles to Kansas City to exorcist in America." His account stands will almost certainly disappoint many obtain an exorcism from Protestant in complete contrast to the more private SKEPTICAL INQUIRER readers who feel deliverance ministers Ellen and Felix. and peaceful affair described above. that the throat of patently unscientific The rite Cuneo describes is not an all- Theirer's deliverance sessions are audito­ nonsense should be slit wide open. night vigil of sweating priests dodging rium affairs. "Throughout the audito­ Cuneo reserves judgment on many projectile vomit. It involved a prayer, a rium, demoniacs are paired off with matters for which skeptics will see a recitation of Psalm 37 and Luke exorcism ministers," writes Cuneo, who clear verdict. After sitting in on fifty 10:17—19, some speaking in tongues, a himself rushed help wrestle down a par­ exorcisms, he is unequivocal about the prayer of repentance followed by a ticularly violent demoniac to prevent fact that he saw nothing supernat­ prayer of exorcism appealing to the him from further battering Pastor Mike. ural—certainly nothing out of The power of Jesus Christ, repeated six times People belched and (literally) vomited Exorcist or Malachi Martin's salacious for each demon within Paul. Cuneo their demons out in an intense charis­ pulp-religion paperbacks. However, he remarks that "whole business" was matic spectacle. remains equivocal about the possibility "orderly and efficient." He also includes Cuneo's close involvement with con­ that demons exist. While his views on a postscript stating that six months later, gregations practicing deliverance min­ the efficacy of exorcism are tempered Paul claimed that he had not experi­ istry gives him a compelling inside look by documented tragedies of exorcists enced any of his old symptoms and "for and first-hand perspective on the con­ inadvertently killing their hapless sub­ the first time in his life felt truly at peace formist (sometimes cult-like) pressures jects, Cuneo, who conducted follow-up with himself (81). exerted on members regarding belief interviews of people whose exorcism he Cuneo then recounts the history of and practice. had observed, apparently accepts that exorcism have been a useful "therapy" the rise of modem Pentecostal and Considering also the distinctive style Charismatic deliverance ministry. of so many charismatic prayer groups: for some. Although it dates as far back as the very the ecstatic worship the gushing emo­ Cuneo does emphasize one conclu­ beginning of Pentecostalism on Asuza tionalism, the breathless solidarity. All sion that all skeptics will gladly of this gave rise, as often as not, to an embrace. The Holy Army of priests, Street in Los Angeles in 1906, the mod­ atmosphere of suggestibility, of hot­ ern revival can be traced to the 1960s. house conformity. Individual charis­ ministers, and laity who do battle with At that time, deliverance ministry was a matics, even relative newcomers, eas­ demons vying against God for the souls sporadic guerrilla movement, led by ily surmised what was expected of of men itself benefits from the power them in the way of belief and con­ of one subtle creature which unques­ mavericks like Disciples of Christ minis­ duct, and there was no shortage of ter Don Basham, Pentecostal minister cues to help them along. Imagine a tionably influences the hearts and Derek Prince, and, among Charismatic fairly new recruit to the renewal opinions of millions: American mass Catholics, a Dominican priest named movement, impressionable, eager to media. Without Hollywood, ABC, or please, seeing two or tnrec, or fifteen Malachi Martin's publisher, the exor­ Francis MacNutt. or sixteen spiritual brethren writhing Cuneo's historical account of the and moaning in demon-induced tor­ cism business would never have gotten deliverance ministry from the 1960s ment. And then seeing the perfor­ off the ground. While Cuneo may in mance repeated time and again. It through the 1980s is filled with quotes some cases be slow to condemn what is would take an iron act of will, scientifically damnable, I believe that out of his interviews, providing an arguably, for such a person not to go intense human portrait of what both along fot the ride. no skeptic's library on occult or super­ leaders and followers in the movement natural claims would be complete without American Exorcist. Cuneo felt and the role deliverance ministry Cuneo describes how he himself was has done quality research on all level played in their lives. Readers will also find confronted by an overly zealous charis­ and from many angles. He opens the a continuing interplay between Catholic matic convinced that he was possessed door for readers into a strange but and Protestant brands of exorcism. For at a 1997 symposium on deliverance. amazing world, where people fervently instance, Malachi Martin's Catholic pulp He also describes interview accounts of believe that Satan and his minions are thriller Hostage to the Devil was a great fascistic group leaders who quashed dis­ at work in a struggle that is simultane­ influence on some of the modern senters by attributing their complaints ously personal and cosmic. He also Charismatic deliverance ministers Cuneo to demons of willfulness and condemn­ does an excellent job tracking the spoke with, and many Catholics turned ing them to corrective exorcisms. He media's role in popular belief, and he is to charismatics in their quest to infuse stresses, however, that such abuses are refreshingly scathing in pointing out their faith with renewed fervor. the exception rather than the rule. those who see religious beliefs as a Cuneo spends time at the Hegewisch Michael Cuneo's conclusions on the means to pop fame. Baptist Church in Indiana with Pastor actual existence of demons and the use

50 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

the paralytic. Pema suffers bouts of immo­ A Personal Mythology bility and pain. At one stage she goes to see JOSEPH P. SZIMHART Gurumayi at her South Fallsburg, New York, ashram. While mere Pema gets no Anatomy of a Life Possessed. By Maria Ferrara Pema. Winner relief and reports diat this guru, a protege Episode Press, P.O. Box 1530, New York, NY 10021-0093, of the controversial Swami Mukatananda, 2002. ISBN 0-9719221-5-2. 342 pp. Paperback, $19.95. who died in 1982, is a paranoid and manipulative cult leader. By die time Pema writes this book, she aria Ferrara Pema, born in and sought contact with prominent tells us she manages to stay stable or "un­ 1933 and raised in Poland, gurus including the Maharishi Mahesh possessed" with the help of "medicines," Mbelieves that for decades a Yogi (whose Transcendental Meditation but she does not specify what diese are. In Catholic monk telepathically and hyp­ cult attracted many celebrities world­ Pan 2 of her book, fully two-diirds of the notically possessed her. wide). She also turned to Catholicism text, Pema expands on her "letter to the The monk, a "Friar G.," is a stigmatic and various Christian sects at this time Pope" in which she complains about Friar (who bleeds with the wounds of Jesus) in her search for truth. G.'s use of "mind control" on her. After with a cult following in Italy. Friar G. Most of Pema's story is about what consulting some books critical of church knew Padre Pio, die newly canonized happened after she met Friar G., who she dogma and tradition, Pema rants on and saint, and apparendy "inherited" Pio's never names formally. Upon meeting on about how the Holy See managed to stigmatic condition. Anatomy of a Life Friar G. at his church, Pema felt a palpa­ hide the truth about the real Jesus. In her Possessed is die author's autobiographical ble connection widi his "energy," and view, Jesus was also possessed, as were testament about her origins, self-pro­ instandy she received telepathic messages most saints including Padre Pio. Pema claimed possession experience, struggle indicating diat die monk would use Pema utilizes published criticism about Pio in to maintain her sanity, and reactionary for a miracle. A paralyzed man was com­ her denunciation of the Church that she stance against the Roman Catholic ing to Friar G. for healing but without says colludes to blind the faithful to the Church Pema begins with her origins in success. Pema reports that Friar G. truth. On page 139 Pema cites Marija Poland where she was raised in privileged entranced her to use her body as a vehicle Gimbutas and other sources who claim circumstances with her twin brother. to heal the paralytic man. According to that the Church executed eight or nine Stalinism and communism were her first Pema, Friar G. needed a bona fide miracle million women during die "witch hunts" belief systems. At age sixteen she became to achieve recognition as a living saint. of die fifteenth to die eighreendi cen­ an accomplished ballet dancer in Warsaw Pema began to feel the paralysis as she felt turies (an unsupported exaggeration, as and later pursued an acting career in Italy. Friar G. directing her to nod her head research indicates less than one hundred Her rather was a Tibetan aristocrat and back and forth in a motion diat would thousand men and women were exe­ physician with Buddhist principles. He somehow trigger the spine of the paralytic cuted). Of course, Pema, who aligns with was at one time a doctor to the Russian to heal, as if by sympathetic magic. We many New Age writers, neglects to men­ Czar and his family when Rasputin was have no idea if Friar G. ever knew any­ tion criticism of Gimbutas, whose cir­ on die scene. Pema describes her mother thing about Pema's irrational compliance. cuitous logic does not convince nonfemi- as an elegant, overbearing woman who She does report that, in a rare personal nist scholars in her field. was more concerned widi appearances talk with die monk. Friar G. urged her to Pan 2 also contains die writer's specu­ than widi nurturing her children. see a psychiatrist. Many others in her life lation about cosmic reality and die mean­ As a young actress Pema worked in told her to do the same. Pema insists ing of life. In a chapter tided "The Fellinis La Dolce Vita and later married throughout her story that she was pos­ Physiology of Manipulation," Pema a famous entertainment lawyer. Max, sessed, not mentally ill. She denies specif­ anempts to explain in medical terms how who was rhirty years her elder. If you are ically and elaborately on page 105 that she her possession worked: "... my frequent a Fellini fan you will like some of the had manifestations of schizophrenia. outbursts and lack of any sense of shame author's insights into this innovative Her possession eventually strained her were because my hypothalamus was filmmaker. During this period, the marriage to die point where she lived apart thrown out of balance. I was forced to sur­ proverbial "sixties," Pema hung out with from her husband and later moved to New render control over my actions. Because it the hip elite, experimented with drugs, York. Still Friar G. telepathically managed exerts such influence over the autonomic to influence Pema across the Atlantic nervous system, the hypothalamus basi­ Joseph Szimhart is a cult research special­ Ocean. He causes her to engage in a sexual cally serves as die higher nervous center ist and consultant. He lives in Pottstown, relationship with a younger man and con­ governing the lower. By stimulating the Pennsylvania. E-mail: [email protected]. tinues to use her to sympadierically heal lower. Friar G. was able to make it prevail

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/februiry 2003 51 BOOK REVIEWS over the higher, controlling center." To me Ironically she finds Kurtz's atheistic philos­ that our cells make very good transmitters this rationalization parallels die theosoph- ophy to be die bedrock of reality, but and receptors; we can send our droughts ical speculation of New Age favorites like misses completely that Kurtz the skeptic and wills to influence people far away." Rudolf Steiner, not the medical knowl­ would never support her belief in tele­ Pema's intent in publishing her story edge of science. pathic possession. Pema expounds on is mentioned on the back page: "The Oddly, Pema attempts to educate the quantum theory and recites the New Age author plans to create a nonprofit orga­ reader about the dangers of cults and mind belief that modern physics has proved that nization whose mission is to protect control, possession, and religion. Her die brain, being of die same stuft as the innocent people, particularly children, quest for the big answer leads her to accept universe, can affect the physical and social from the dangers of religious cults by Confucianism and nonreligious environment through thought alone. This proposing to create new legislation." Buddhism as well as secular humanism. also explains why Pema holds the bizarre This book fails as a didactic tool, but it The latter in her mind is exemplified in notion that mind control is accomplished does present die personal mythology of a the work of Paul Kurtz, a skeptic and through telepathic thought transference. woman bent on reconstructing reality to founder of Free Inquiry magazine. On page 273 she states, "We already know sustain her denial of a mental illness. IZI

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52 lanuary/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER REVIEW The ABC-ville Horror

KEVIN CHRISTOPHER

The October 31, 2002, edition of ABC's leave twenty-eight days later, claiming have a priest. Father Pecoraro, seen here Primetime Thursday was standard fare in they were terrorized by supernatural hor­ with the Lutzes' children, bless the the media's obligatory Halloween hype rors; and how the Lutzes soon met up house. Lutz says the priest swore that in of the paranormal. The only exception with DeFeo's attorney William Weber, one room he felt an unseen hand slap this Halloween was that CSICOP and who himself was eager to write a bestseller him and heard a loud voice warn him." the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER staff were actu­ about one of the most heinous crimes ever Lutz said: "He heard the words 'Get ally looking forward to this Primetime committed on Long Island. Weber out' very strongly. He became ill. He program: Senior Research Fellow Joe teamed up with the Lutzes to put the had flu-like symptoms. His hands bled Nickell had been interviewed at the ABC story together. openly for a while." studios in New York City less tlian two Early on, Elizabeth Vargas inter­ Vargas continued: "The priest report­ weeks earlier for segments on The viewed reporter Laura Didio and "psy­ edly has since died, but within days Lutz Amityville Horror and TV mediums. [See chic researcher" Lorraine Warren about says his family also began to notice strange Nickell s column in this issue, page 13 the overnight stance and ghost hunt things about their new home." —Eds.] Watching the final product was a bittersweet affair. The final seg­ ment, on mediums, titled "Voices from George Lutz twice passed up the opportunity Beyond"—in which Nickell never to deny that he had concocted the story about appeared—featured magician Ian Row­ land, who capably demonstrated cold the horrors in order to turn a fast buck. reading. Rowland convinced a small group that he was in contact with dead loved ones, later revealing that his pow­ conducted at the Lutzes' home. The The Lutzes were embroiled in several ers rested on a worldly technique instead account of that night includes a group lawsuits regarding the book and story. of otherworldly messages. seance in which one psychic gets visibly Vargas was apparently unaware of the con­ The first segment, however, which upset, a series of time lapse photos—one tradictions that arose in trial testimony revisited The Amityville Horror case, thor­ of which shows the face of a little boy and interviews that appeared in major oughly negated any productive skepti­ peering from one of the bedrooms—and newspapers such as The Washington Post cism achieved in the segment on medi­ a room which Warren found disturbing. and Newsday in 1979. ums. Host Diane Sawyer introduced the George Lutz appears throughout the The Long Island newspaper Newsday, Amityville story with "And tonight, for segment describing slime, sleep paraly­ which covered the trials, interviewed Halloween, we investigate the facts sis, and a levitating Kathy Lutz, among Pecoraro. This is what reporter Michael behind one of the most enduring ghost other things. Kernan writes in a September 16, 1979, stories of our time: the Amityville The psychic claptrap and Lutz's article in The Washington Post: "Father Horror." They investigated facts; the unbelievable accounts are not the worst 'Mancuso' who Newsday said was Rev. problem was how few of the facts were failings of Primetime's Amityville seg­ Ralph J. Pecoraro, told the newspaper actually reported to viewers and how the ment. The worst problems involve the that he had known Kathy during her first obvious conclusions to be drawn from questions never asked, the facts never marriage and had instructed George, a them were blatandy ignored. researched (or at least reported), and Methodist (since converted to During the segment, Elizabeth Vargas ABC's cursor)- treatment of the sole Catholicism), before their marriage. But sketched the series of events behind the skeptic interviewed. he had never been near the house at 112 talc of horror at 112 Ocean Avenue in Ocean Ave., the paper reported, and had Amityville, New York, including how The Priest's Account referred the couple to the local parish Ronnie ("Butch") DeFeo, Jr., slaughtered Vargas described how the tainted history priest, to whom they never went." his family in that home in November of the house prompted the Lutzes to call The late parapsychologist Stephen 1974, how George and Kathy Lutz and on the services of a priest. "[T)he house's Kaplan, in his book The Amityville their family moved into the house, only to history did unsettle them enough to Horror Conspiracy, quotes another 1979

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER lanuary/February 2003 53 REVIEW

Newsday article which reported comment on the case for the upcom­ passed up the opportunity to deny that Pecoraro's trial testimony, maintaining ing Halloween special. We provided he had concocted the story about the that he had heard the words "Get out," Joe Nickell, who was set up from the horrors in order to turn a fast buck. but also admitting that "the resulting start to look ill informed. Vargas intro­ Then Vargas narrated a sugar-coated terrors which befell him in the book duced Nickell as the representative portrait of the Lutzes as beleaguered, never happened." of the "legions of professional skep­ self-sacrificing altruists who made only a So either George Lutz or Catholic tics" attracted to the Amityville case, paltry few hundred thousand dollars priest Father Pecoraro is mistaken or but denies him—and CSICOP—the from their story: lying. Yet Primetime never posed the basic courtesy of stating his full-time All told, the Amityville Horror book position as Senior Research Fellow. contradiction to Lutz. and movie netted the Lurzes about From here it only gets worse: "But $300,000, they say. Not bad, but cer­ William Weber's Account Nickell," Vargas narrates, "has never tainly not the multi-millions those Elizabeth Vargas interviewed DeFeo's been inside 112 Ocean Avenue. He with the rights to the book, movie attorney, William Weber, about a meet­ has never even met the Lutzes." She and all the sequels raked in. And the Lutzes gave up a lot along the way. ing with the Lutzes at his house. Weber neglects to mention that he had been Their home. Their business. Even is clear that he and the Lutzes began fab­ to the site, and had spoken with their children were taunted, they say, Barbara Cromarty. Vargas interviewed ricating much of the Amityville story when their story became known. that night, with the ultimate goal of Nickell at length in the studio, but cashing in on the tale they wove: only a few general comments about Finally, Vargas reported statements the suspicious elements in the Lutzes" made by Ronnie DeFeo, Jr., serving his Weber "I don't remember the num­ account survived editing. ber of bottles of wine that we had, but six consecutive life sentences in a New it was certainly more than four. There According to Nickell, some of die York State prison, in a phone interview was this give and take. And towards worst abuses never made it to the final with Primetime. "As for those ghosts, he the end we were creating ideas." cut. During the studio interview, when claims he lied and that there were no Vargas: "What do you mean, Nickell brought up the fact that police voices commanding him to kill." 'Creating'?" never came to the Lutzes' home to inves­ (Vargas noted earlier in the segment that Weber: "Creating. In other words, tigate alleged phenomena as claimed in the jury for Ronnie DeFeo's murder trial if you arc talking about the green The Amityville Horror: A True Story, did not believe DeFeo's claims that he slime, why couldn't it have come from a demonic source?" Vargas immediately accused him of heard strange voices in the house which ll-JL:... . I *ll \ vaigaa. uut uiu nc icn you nc was (."iiij'vinvi mill lu ism. making this up or did he tell you that in the book. In fact, it is, on page 157 of "There are tangible reminders of 'we also saw green slime'?" the original paperback. Clearly, Nickell what happened in Amityville," Vargas Weber: "He never told me he saw was not the ignorant party. concludes, mentioning the DeFeo green slime." gravestone and the house where the Vargas: "So, bottom line, do you Lutz Repeatedly Fails to Deny murders occurred. "And all those pho­ believe the Lutz's story about what Concocting the Amityville Story happened in those 28 days?" tographs inside the house. But no one Weber: "Absolutely not." After the brief excerpt from the Nickell has an explanation for this picture. Is it Vargas: "Why not?" interview, Vargas once again set the alle­ really an eerie looking little boy, and, if Weber (chuckles): "Because I gation of hoaxing for profit in front of not, what is it?" In fact, Nickell did know that they were making a com­ George Lutz: point out problems with the photo­ mercial venture out of this." Vargas: "What is your reaction to graph of the boy, which Primetime edi­ Vargas then posed Weber's allega­ people who say, 'Look, the Lutz fam­ tors omitted. tions for George Lutz's response. "We ily made up this entire talc to make So in the end, a spooky photograph know what happened to us," Lutz money. This was something that the)' trumps all the evidence that The decided to do, to stage, so that they replies, "And we remember." Amityville Horror is complete fabrica­ could sell a book, and (wow!) even Lutz does not directly deny Weber's tion. If this is what Diane Sawyer meant make a movie.'" allegations. Inexplicably, Vargas, who by "investigate" at the beginning of the George Lutz: "Well, we could've show, Primetime should stay away from presses Weber for the "bottom line," lets done it better. We should've done it investigative reporting. Lutz escape the obvious question. better if that was die plan." —Kevin Christopher Dismissing the Skeptic Vargas, for a second time, was con­ Primetime had called CSICOP in mid- tent to let Lutz get away with a blatant Kevin Christopher is Public Relations October 2002, looking for a skeptic to rhetorical dodge. George Lutz twice Director for CSICOP 0

54 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FORUM

Shattering the Crystal Sphere

RALPH ESTLING

ake no mistake, the Universe to the Universe itself. If we're to believe is an amazing, utterly mar­ the Big Bangers, the Universe started Mvelous place. So what a shame out simple, as simple as existence can to spoil all that marvel by populating it be, and then grew and developed and with our little gods, spirits, dreams, all transmogrified into a phantas­ that fact-free supernatural, paranormal magoria of complica­ garbage and pretend our Meccano- tion and inexplica­ Universe was hammered together and ble (to us) detail. bolted on for our pleasure and benefit, Natural selection and so all our questions are answered would men be right from the start, almost before ubiquitous, quite they're asked, and nothing is left out and literally a universal everything is accounted for, in this cute phenomenon, an little cosmos we construct, neatly unplanned, unpur­ ordered and arranged and put in its own posed but inescapable little place, proper and tidy, like cups built-in process within and saucers in the cupboard. existence. And then I suppose we do this, commit this sad would have to find out why. Not sacrilege against existence, because we've philosophically or metaphysically why, decided we can't figure existence out any but scientifically and logically why. "magnetic fields," "gravitational fields," other way. A shame. All that march of Really why. Assuming the question. "axion fields," "Higgs fields," and so forth, marvels that reality offers us counts for Why?, makes sense. to populate their empty ignorance and give nothing, which is a terrible waste of the It's easy to get mystical and New to airy nodiing a local habitation and a truly and totally wondrous. But we have Agey about this son of thing, for there's name. But if they're good physicists, honest decided we haven't the ability to cope nothing easier than creating mysticism ones, they know that all this naming of with it. Or the imagination. We must where there is mystery. But mystery is parts is just a veneer, a finish, to be painted have gods to do all the donkey work. only lack of knowledge, lack of under­ over rhe real, underlying, and, so far, So, what can we put in the place of standing, which is the norm, the natural unfathomable mystery bcnearJi. (1 have a gods? And should we worship it? state of man. There's nothing special, vision at this point of Quantum Fields It occurs to me (and has occurred to nothing remarkable or noteworthy staggering back and, hand to brow, mut­ others) that evolution might well be at about mystery. tering "Godfrey Daniel, I've been work all the way down, not just in biol­ Quite often, in order to come to hornswoggledT) ogy but in chemistry and physics, so that a working arrangement with mvstcries, sci­ Well, we can have mystery, unknow- it's not just life that must complexify (for entists create vast metaphors and vibrant ingness, and still not need gods. But some as yet unknown reason) but every­ analogies and call diese "wave functions" thing else must do so too (for an as-yet or "multiple worlds" or "force fields"— Our frequent columnist Ralph Estling even more unknown reason), right down "quantum fields," "electromagnetic fields," writes from llmiiuter. Somerset, England.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2003 55 FORUM

we're greedy for Certainty and will stuff like Nietzsche, knows something about Having thrived and thrilled on illusions ourselves full of it, even when we know conviction, has a name for this apathy: that promised the devout the gift of in our hearts it is a lie. Of course, being acedia (or accidie), which is laziness of Knowing for Sure, if only diey wor­ gentlemen and ladies, we don't call it a spirit, idleness of soul. Between mindless shipped them, with no questions asked, lie, we call it a mystery, a myth, a story, conviction and spiritual uncaring, truth or even contemplated (for thought is religion, poetry, a dream. But it is a lie, plods a perilous path. treason), the Believers came at long last to whatever we call it, and how furious we And yet, it moves. Slowly and realize their folly (as Believers sometimes become when someone brings this to our unsurely, often enough at the pace of an do) and, like children who wake up on attention and shatters the crystal sphere arthritic sloth, it moves. Never mind the Christmas Eve night and see that Santa wc have so carefully and with such postmoderns, the relativists, the neo- Claus is merely their father and mother meticulousness constructed around us, Kuhnians, it moves. There is a progress, tiptoeing and giggling around the tree, so that now that the crystal is smashed to real, not imagined, and there is beauty in decide to hate their parents the rest of pieces, reality pours in and engulfs us. this. Anyone who bothers to learn some­ their lives for having deceived them. Oh, I can see why we must have thing about the history of ideas knows Truth as trauma. gods. But it's a shame. For reality is mar­ this. Our knowledge (though not neces­ These Disillusioned have only de­ velous beyond all the gods man has ever sarily our wisdom) advances and ceived themselves and so, though self- created or will create. The trouble is, of improves over time. There are setbacks, hate might therefore follow in some course, reality owes nothing to us. calamities, disasters, letters to the editor, kind of half-assed, crazy-logic way, it is Is it a comedy or a tragedy mat we but the overall direction is, amazingly all an extravagance, an over-abundance have composed for ourselves? I'm not enough, forward, just as the course of of emotional discharge, uncalled for, sure, for the production has large and natural selection dictates, whatever some pointless, and really rather silly. liberal dollops of both. Perhaps then it's biologists may say as they condemn us in When (if) our crystal sphere of just as well to laugh at the human con­ their righteous wrath for what they call Ignorance is shattered and the light dition, the man-made human condi­ our hubris, our conviction that life is part rushes in, it's no surprise that we curse tion, for otherwise we wouldn't be able of a greater game called "Evolution of the brightness diat momentarily blinds to breathe for the tears and hiccups. Novelties of Increasing Complexity by us. But, if we are patient, and a little Convictions, said Nietzsche, are more Means of Natural Selection at Least in grown-up, we shall learn to see again. dangerous enemies of truth than lies. But the Long Run." Those who deny this, Only this time what we see will really be another great enemy of the truth is just whether scientist or non-scientist, are the there. And what we shall learn, at long the opposite of conviction: indifference. Disillusioned, those who have lost their last, to rage against will not be the light, The Roman Catholic Church, which, little gods and as a result hate everything. but its dying. Q You can make a lasting impact on the nature of skepticism...

when you provide for the Skeptical Inquirer in your will.

CSICOP and the Skeptical Inquirer changed the terms of discussion in fields ranging from pseudoscience and the paranor­ mal to science and educational policy. You can take an enduring step to preserve their vitality when you provide for the Skeptical Inquirer in your will. Your bequest to CSICOP, Inc., will help to provide for the future of skepticism as it helps to keep the Skeptical Inquirer finan­ cially secure. Depending on /our tax situation, a charitable bequest to CSICOP may have little impact on the net size of your estate—or may even result in a greater amount being available to your beneficiaries. We would be happy to work with you and your attorney in the development of a will or estate plan that meets your wishes. A variety of arrangements are possible, including: gifts of a fixed amount or a percentage of your estate; living trusts or gift annuities, which provide you with a lifetime income; or a contingent bequest that provides for the Skeptical Inquirer only if your primary beneficiaries do not survive you. For more information, contact Barry Karr, Executive Director of CSICOP, at 716-636-1425. All inquiries are held in the strictest confidence.

56 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FOLLOW-UP

The Mars Effect Cannot Be Pinned on Cheating Parents

SUITBERT ERTEL

he Mars Effect exists. This is pering hypothesis. Two rea­ premise A of one of the world's sons are straightforward, T leading critics in astrology more technical issues, inter­ (Geoffrey Dean: "Is die Mars Effect a twined as they are with tricky social effect?," SI May/June, 2002). Mars statistics, have been ad­ Effect only means correlations between dressed elsewhere.' First, birth frequencies of athletes and Mars posi­ Dean's hypothesis im­ tions at birth hours, as reported by the plies that nineteenth Gauquelins. The term as used here does century parents were not imply any astrological endorsement, already aware of as it usually does in public discussions. birth/planet connec­ Planet-birth correlations, the statistics, tions uncovered dirough have been die center of disputes over sev­ Gauquelins research eral decades. Dean long since confirmed in 1955. How could their reality, a stance based on his own the parents know at careful scrutiny of the Gauquelins' and that time, e.g., that their kids' die skeptics' birdi data files. Yet his message about planet-birth correlations, message (A), perhaps shock­ Dean long since confirmed the reality of ing for some, is immediately followed by planet-birth correlations, a stance based message (B) reassuring for the shocked: Forget about astrology altogedier. All on his own careful scrutiny of the Gauquelins' Mars, Moon, Jupiter, and Saturn effects and the skeptics' birth data files. ever reported by the Gauquelins and con­ firmed by others can be explained by human manipulation, not by Gauquelins chance at age twenty or so in athletics Why should they have been docu­ manipulation as many skeptics suspected would be better if they had been born mented? Suppose that Gauquelins "neo- in the past, but by cheating parents. The with Mars rising or culminating? Or that astrology" (which I will abbreviate as parents dutifully reported birdi dates and for their kids as actors twenty-five yean GN) came into existence as belief early hours at their registration offices, but after birth, a rising or culminating Jupiter on. In that case GN would have clashed some of them adjusted, less dutifully, at birth would be an advantage, or that for with astrology's core traditions, based birth hours of their children in order to their fame as scientists, at age thirty-five make them coincide with favorable plan­ or later, natal Saturn in that position etary positions. would count, etc.—to name diree of fif­ Suitbert Ertel is professor emeritus at I for one endorse Dean's message A teen confirmed planet/birth connections. Georg-Elias-Muller-Institut fur Psychologic (see Ertel in SI, 1992), but not B. Let me Such beliefs had never been documented Gottingen, Germany. E-mail: sertelQbuni- explain why I reject B, the parental tam­ in pre-Gauquelin times. goettingen. de.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2033 57 FOLLOW-UP primarily on Ptolemaic astrology and its ble through books, magazines, jour­ Ptolemaic descendants even under most derivatives. Consider, for example, that nals, conferences, TV, and the Inter­ favorable conditions today. And why in traditional astrology a planet passing net, yet such widespread awareness of didn't the time-tampering parents of through the house immediately after its the Gauquelin heresy did not effect modern film stars or Olympic winners rise ("house"—that is, sector, one- noticeable changes in existing astrolog­ found in the data lists of Gauquelin's twelfth of the daily circle) was consid­ ical belief systems—mini-concessions 1955 book not react by shouting in ered as weakly positioned while for to GN notwithstanding. How then public, "Wow! He found out!" Gauquelin's GN this sector was one of could GN, an elaborate astrological My second point of dissent is Dean's the two strongest. Consider further that system, ever conquer the minds of presupposition that parents were suffi­ for Ptolemaic astrology planetary aspects masses of nineteenth century people ciently informed, by almanacs, about (that is, pronounced angles between all over Europe, without modern planetary positions. Only one third of the planets) are of paramount importance media technology, without teachers, best of Dean's historical periodicals pro­ while for GN angles between planets are and even without using available vide information about the rise of Mars, entirely irrelevant. More contrasts means of publicity in those days: Jupiter, and Saturn, and if at all, then for between traditional astrology and GN leaflets, pamphlets, booklets? only one or two days of a month. exist. Had GN ever become an astrolog­ Dean faintly acknowledges the Moreover, almanacs were consider­ ical belief, then disputes over that heresy problems. Ptolemaic astrology was ably biased in favor of sights at night, by proponents and disbelievers would "dead" since the seventeenth century they dealt with visible planets. Also: par­ have found their way into written (Dean, p. 36), so it is difficult to ents without almanacs, dependent on works. Dean did not and certainly can­ attribute to nineteenth-century parents viewing conditions, could see planets at not provide any document proving that astrological motivations. But Dean night only. So if the parents fudged their GN-beliefs existed before 1955. simply fills the lacuna of beliefs with children's birth time, one should find more effects among night births than among day births. But when I tested this I found that daytime planetary effects were significantly more, not less pro­ nounced than night-time effects (see From Dean's total (N=15,942) daytime and nighttime births were selected. "Day" table 1, day 26.5 percent, night 24.6 means the sun is above the horizon, "night" below the horizon (Paris calendar). Dean's workable total for this test is based on professions with significant birth percent). This contradictory result surplus in rising and culminating sectors of Moon, Jupiter, or Saturn (Mars alone, I posit, disproves convincingly excluded because of "dawn effect" intrusion) (N = 10,457). Percent chance expec­ tation obtained from a control group of Gauquelins' ordinary people (day N = what Dean purports to be "so simple, so 8,685; night N = 9134). obvious" (p. 37). So what to conclude? Dean's message Total G-sector % G-sector % Expected (A) stands (planet-birth correlations), Daytime births 5,234 1,393 26.6 22.3 but his message (B) (parental tamper­ ing) must be renounced. No suitable Nighttime births 5,223 1,281 24.5 21.3 explanation for (A) has yet been offered. Tolerance of ambiguity, a scientist's strength, is still demanded.

Problems accrue. The Gauquelin GN, and he calls nineteenth-century Note data show that GN planetary effects GN, his invention, a "debased rem­ 1. See "Scrutinies of Geoffrey Dean's Parental occurred 1800—1950 all over Europe, nant" of Ptolemaic astrology. Tampering Claim." a scries by S. Ertel in from Italy, France, Germany, to Belgium Dean's contrivance suffers from an Correlation, of which arc published: (1) and Holland, without significant varia­ overload of puzzles. Whence do rotten "Tampering with birth daies should occur more often among rural than urban people." 2001, tion. Dean's tampering hypothesis thus remnants of a belief system, dead since 19(2): 37-46; (2) 2001, "Births of priests should presupposes that GN ideas spread 1650, receive sudden vitality in 1800? abound on feasts." 2001. 20(1): 30-36: (3) "Superstition should decline over lime," 2002, evenly among societies, overcoming all How can degenerating leftovers of 19(4): 39-48; Submitted: (4) "Thice tests, three linguistic, national, and cultural barri­ beliefs form new structures clearly dis­ failures." (5) "Whence midnight avoidance?" ers—all this occurring in obscurity. tinct from their origin? GN is not a These studies could not confirm Dean's idea mat Gauquelin planetary effects have anything to do Dean's speculation seems preposterous. remnant, rather an antipode of with superstition (belief in witching days, ghost More is on file. Since 1955, the Ptolemaic astrology, an independent hours etc.). In his SI article Dean missed referring to this work. U Gauquelin findings have been accessi­ multifaceted system, not digestible by

58 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FOLLOW-UP

Response to Ertel

GEOFFREY DEAN

ntil now the only adverse com­ the next best thing. What matters is that only that social effects exist in the ment on my SI article has been planetary information was available. Gauquelin data which need to be con­ Ufrom an astrologer complaining (3) Contrary to expectation, planetary trolled before we can proceed further. about "subtle negativity." So I thank effects by day exceed planetary effects by Where is the problem? Professor Ertel for raising specific issues. night. The expectation assumes people Of course a purely social explanation of Ertel says I claim planetary effects can had no access to almanacs, nights were planetary effects would be denied if it be fully explained by the faking of birth never cloudy, and views of die horizon could be shown that parents and children data. But as stressed in Si's editorial, I were never obstructed. But none of these did not have the information, opportu­ claim no such thing, see later. Ertel then arc likely in nineteenth century Europe. nity, and motivation to create them; and that planetary effects still emerged under gives four arguments against this non­ Figure 1. Finding the cul­ existent claim. They also neglect role- minating point by a conditions where social effects are absent, plumb bob so that "one playing, so they miss half the action.' may know the hours by as when parents are excluded from the night. .. and divers other reporting process and the child is igno­ (1) The necessary beliefs did not exist, things that may be prac­ and to have them all over Europe seems pre­ tised on the sky." From rant of its birth planets. But Ertel does an English translation posterous. Not so. The first major printed about 1516 of the best- none of these things. Worse, he gives no selling le Grand Calen­ hint of how the baffling Gauquelin puz­ compendium of religious and debased drier et Compost des astrological advice, Le Grand Calendrier Bergers {The Big Calendar zles might be explained if not by social and Compilation of Shep­ et Compost des Bergers, published in herds], of which one-fifth effects, which is like claiming that cars are was devoted to a debased propelled by means unknown but cer­ France in 1491, was still being printed astrology. Here shepherd largely unchanged more than 300 years means the Good Shep­ tainly not by chemistry.' herd and every man who later with equally long-lasting transla­ works. In her survey of French almanacs. 8olleme Notes tions in other countries. It says, for (1969) says 'Le Compost 1. End's arguments have been addressed by mc instance, mat the man born under Jupiter was not only the model of almanacs but also the in Dean (2000) and in an update, to which readers shall be "a fair speaker ... shall love to best expression of the should refer for more detail than is possible here. popular mentality . .. the 2. Ends arguments with my response in sing" whereas under Saturn he shall be level that the other parentheses arc briefly as follows: My requirement "full of debate .. . shall be wise in coun­ (almanac) texts tried to approach." that superstitious bdiefs be stronger in rural areas is seling," making them the planets of not supported by the results for 7.952 French pro­ choice for a family with traditions in act­ fessionals. (There is no such requirement.) On (4) Ertel"s five articles in the astrology Christian feast days die excess birth- for 2,390 ing or science respectively. There is also a priests and monks was not significantly more than woodcut showing how to find the culmi­ journal Correlation further disconfirm for 15.942 professionals. (The excess was 39% and nating point (figure 1), with a star just my ideas, period. Not so. See my sum­ 13%. both in the expected direction.) Superstition declined steadily from 1800 to 1950 but the avoid­ past culmination; note die exact match mary and response in note 2. ance of unlucky days etc did not. therefore avoid­ with Gauquelin's planetary findings. Since the death of Gauquelin in ance is not a valid measure of belief. (So people 1991, Ertel has been heroically champi­ avoided unlucky days because they were non-bdiev- (2) Almanacs gave less planetary infor­ en?) Friday the 13th is not especially avoided. (Not mation than I suppose. Not all almanacs oning the reality of planetary effects. So a European belief until after 1945.) Planetary effects gave rise times but many gave daily his eagerness to dismiss this new evi­ should be weaker on faked days, not stronger. (So die more the faking the less the effect?) Adding moon-planet aspects (for forecasting the dence for that reality is hard to under­ odier planets should increase the correlation with weather) plus moon rise, set, and often stand, as is his neglect of its most strik­ avoidances due to the extra information but it does ing feature—its close match to every not. (Why should adding non-relevant planets culmination times, which together were provide extra information?) A total of 320,817 baffling puzzle posed by Gauquelin's Geoffrey Dean is a technical editor in findings. This alone should prompt fur­ Perth. Western Australia (Box 466, ther consideration, not dismissal. After RESPONSE TO ERTEL Subiaco 6008, Western Australia). all, contrary to what Ertel says, I claim Continued on page 65

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The cover article of our September/October 2002 issue, "A Skeptical Look at September 11th: How We Can Defeat Terrorism By Reacting to it More Rationally" by Clark R. Chapman and Alan W. Harris, provoked, as we expected enormous reader response. Some was quite strongly stated; much was thoughtful. We provide here a representative cross-section of letters submitted to SI. In addition to these, the authors also received many letters and mes­ sages sent directly to them (not included here). As is often typical, those letters tended to be more supportive and less critical than those sent to SI for publication. At the end of this section. Chapman and Harris respond. —Kendrick Frazier, Editor

I suspect that I speak for more than a few and we can stop that by recognizing that skeptics by expressing disappointment at more people die from auto accidents or Clark Chapman and Alan Harris's article earthquakes abroad? The blindness of the calling for a "more rational" response to Skeptical Inquirer authors to the imminent threat facing us is Osama bin Laden's mass murder of thou­ made clear when they say that terrorism sands of innocent people. Chapman and "should concern us if we truly think that Harris begin by arguing that 2,800 deaths in future attacks might destroy our society. But the World Trade Center—they leave out the who believes that?" hundreds more who died at the Pentagon Certainly the "many friends and col­ and in Pennsylvania—weren't all that bad, leagues" to whom the authors are grateful, since there were "20,000 Indian earthquake and doubtless have similar political agendas, victims earlier in 2001," and look how many may not believe that. This disconnect from people die in auto accidents. reality reminds me of the bcfuddlcment of a This the type of warped logic that left us New Yorker writer when she learned that defenseless against bin Laden's fanatics in the Reagan had won the presidency. It's not pos­ first place. In 1990, one of bin Laden's follow­ sible, she complained. "I don't know a single ers assassinated Jewish militant Rabbi Meir person who voted for him." Kahane. The case was not properly investi­ gated—it was only one death, and more peo­ Albert J. Forman ple die in automobile accidents every day, after Palm City, Florida all. Thanks to the bungled investigation, the thirsty fanatics. That is a lesson we should assassin's associates were never apprehended, have learned from our failure to stop Hitler. Clark Chapman and Alan Harris miss the and they proceeded to bomb the World Trade The government's recent involvement with mark in their focus on the "rational" risks of Center in 1993, killing six more people, injur­ airport security may seem like an overreac- terrorism. While I can appreciate the goal of ing 1,000, and causing massive losses to the tion to Chapman and Harris, but until bin encouraging a logical outlook on life's risk, New York economy. But what's a mere six Laden is caught or killed, the danger to inno­ the authors are comparing apples and deaths? More people die in auto accidents cent passengers is very real, and the govern­ oranges when they analyze the terror attack every week, don't they? The 1993 bombing ment has responsibility for protecting them. in the context of more mundane hazards. suspects were never connected to Osama bin If other innocent Americans are killed in the Laden, and as a result, he went on to bomb the future, government officials—not their crit­ Government is, first and foremost, a Khobar Towers in Arabia, another American ics—are going to have answer for it... . compact for the prevention of violence base in Dhahran, our embassies in Kenya and between people and, most of all, for mutual Tanzania, and the U.S.S. Cole in Aden. But Richard Morrock defense. I quite reasonably expect my society that cost only about 30 or 40 lives, and more Bay Terrace, New York and my elected officials to take a more active people die in accidents every month. Since our interest in, and expend more resources to intelligence agencies never caught him, bin I read "A Skeptical Look at September 11 th" prevent, my being murdered by national Laden was able to get his followers to hijack with initial interest followed by stunned dis­ enemies (domestic or foreign) than my con­ sumption by a shark. four airliners and crash them into the belief. The subtitle, "How We Can Defeat Pentagon and the World Trade Center, killing Terrorism by Reacting to It More Chapman and Harris partially address approximately 3,000. That's not a real prob­ Rationally," suggested that perhaps the this concern by pointing out that domestic lem for Chapman and Harris, since more peo­ authors might speculate that it would be homicide is committed by malicious persons ple die in auto accidents every year. more rational to examine young Arabs more and kills many more people than terrorism, Chapman and Harris seem to regard the closely at airports than a senator, a former yet does not seem to concern us as much, World Trade Center attack as if it was an iso­ vice-president, or lirrle old Jewish lady. judging by how much they calculate diat we lated incident. It is, in fact, only die most Alas, the leitmotif of the piece can be spend on the problem. Poor example. One, spectacular terrorist action by a network of there is substantial disagreement over the summarized in diese words of the authors: pan-Islamist organizations which span the proper solutions to the problem of violent "By minimizing our negative reaction, we world and seek the extermination of all non- crime, but one thing is certain: none arc mil­ might contribute to undermining terrorists' Muslims, as well as all Muslims who don't go itary. Different hazards are, well, different, goals as effectively as by waging war on them along wirh their particular brand of Islam.... and demand different sorts of solutions: Sticking one's head in the sand and or by mounting homeland defenses." Even a some are more costly than others; one can­ "going about one's business" as if nothing jot of skeptical thought would show their not determine the seriousness of a society's serious was taking place is not the way to theme to fall somewhere between stupid and response based on dollar amount alone. Two, protect innocent people from these blood- insane. Terrorists are trying to destroy us.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2003 61 the level of violence in society varies year to attacks is eminently debatable by people of goal of science should be to understand year, but never goes away and is noc subject good will. As a board-certified, 24-carat "irrationality" better, not just to point to to absolute deterrence, as are attacks by skeptic, I see nothing to debunk. Reasonable irrationality. people of good will and intelligence can hold national enemies. Three, terrorism is politi­ John and Nancy Rice forth from both sides of this issue. cal murder, and represents a special threat to West Lafayette, Indiana our secular democracy. Four, the authors The authors, though, do make one of a series of basic errors, partly alluded to by ignore the very real threat of weapons of I generally agree with the authors. However, Kendrick Frazier in his editor's note. They foil mass destruction. I take issue with this statement: "Billions of to take into account the deaths that have A final point. Chapman and Harris scoff extra tax dollars arc sent on military opera­ already been prevented by our "irrational" at the threat that these terrorists might tions in Pakistan and Afghanistan rather response. The magnificent transformation, "destroy us as a society" by asking "who than on enhancing American productivity." by force of arms, of landlocked Afghanistan, believes that?" But while it may be that the Are die authors implying that we should not halfway around the world, from a blood­ jihadists cannot hope to destroy us entirely, have responded militarily against AJ Qaeda? thirsty medieval tyranny into a budding as long as we fight them more vigorously If so, what should we have done to enhance republic in a few months, is something to see. than the authors may like (and ignoring for American productivity? Send them flowers the moment the awful effects for world Deaths and potential deaths should be grown in America? peace, the world economy, and the future of properly plotted as a geometric curve democracy should we fail to defeat them) increasing over time to the most recent Jaime Arbona only an insane society would not act to 3,000 from Sept. 11 and projected into a Mayaguez, Puerto Rico thwart "lesser" yet still catastrophic threats, future of biological, chemical, and atomic such as a nuclear device being exploded in a attacks on our cities. The article contains much useful thought, major American city. The authors inexplicably ignore the dif­ but the premise that the terrorist threat is not ference between ordinary, traditional deaths serious is silly. Evan Kaiser and risks that we have long since come to After the flowering of Greek and Roman Seekonk, Massachusetts terms with, and those inflicted by new, vio­ civilizations the world did regress into the lent foreign enemies who consciously pursue Dark Ages. Whether due to barbarians at the Chapman and Harris make a good case for the goal of murdering us and eliminating our gates or contagion within, the world did rational risk analysis, but much of die time way of life. Any sane analysis will conclude indeed succumb. Now there are new barbar­ they are comparing apples with oranges. Sure, that national survival, itself, is uniquely at ians at the gates and the threat they pose is the figures for U.S. deaths by automobiles, stake from die latter, and that a large and far greater than the threat to Rome. homicides, S1 Us, and home accidents are proportional reaction is called for. High technology and religious fanaticism huge and horrible. But these are reflections of arc a potent mix; smart bombs pale by com­ Don Vandervelde a large population; their causes are diffuse and parison. In the weeks after the attacks, my Gig Harbor, Washington varied. The effects of a terrorist attack, on the engineer friends and I spent time at lunch other hand, are concentrated—the result of a dreaming up terrorist scenarios. We soon malicious, organized, and deliberate action. Chapman and Harris make an excellent rational and objective analysis of the 9/11 stopped when it became clear to us that it was And more of the same is promised. easy to do far worse than topple the World That said, however, 1 must admit that the attack and our reaction to it. Unfortunately, it is a poor scientific analysis. It is based on Trade Centers. American reaction has been about as rational assumptions about "objective" reality: a pre­ as die behavior of a flock of decapitated hens. Thomas R. Freeman mature death here is worth a premature The next big terrorist attack will probably have Columbia, South Carolina death there, a dollar here is worth a dollar nothing to do with air transport; diey've been there, a job here is worth a job there, etc. Your "Skeptical Look at September 11 th" is diere, done that, and we have been warned. It Even when the characteristics of these items the best and most reasoned analysis of that should suffice to make cockpit doors really appear almost identical, casual observation tragic event that I have read. hard to penetrate, and permit pilots to carry shows that people do not value them in this weapons if they so desire. Equipment to sniff "objective" manner. A good scientific analy­ I wish the article could be disseminated for explosives in luggage can follow. sis is to provide understanding, insight, and to a larger audience. A whole new Federal organization for air­ (sometimes) predictive power. Since the Alfred N. Bederman port safety is surely overkill. But politicians authors' assumptions are not even close to Wilmette, Illinois have gotten into the act. What counts for valid, their conclusions are of little scien­ tific interest. them is money, publicity, and power (espe­ This rational look at the disproportionate cially power). They must be seen as doing What would be of great interest is to find reaction to the terrorist attacks rang true for something; it doesn't much matter what. value systems that make a person's, a group's, me, as I have been more and more disturbed So I don't have much confidence that or a nation's actual actions rational. Perhaps about the flag waving, the baseless rounding Chapman and Harris will have any great effect. die the authors could shed light on why soci­ up and incarceration of individuals fitting Charles H. Chandler ety almost completely ignores the large risks certain ethnic profiles, empowerment of a Lexington, Massachusetts of asteroids and yet demands strong action law enforcement agency above the guarantees to combat the very minor risks of West Nile of the Constitution, all in die name of a sad I found "A Skeptical Look at September virus, shark attacks, and power lines. Why is but anomalous act of terrorism. I have read die world up in arms about twenty or thirty 11th" very encouraging. If we've so thor­ the article over and over again since my mag­ innocent people killed each year by the U.S. oughly exposed all the traditional scams that azine arrived, and again today, September 11, judicial system, yet pretty comfortable about we must now turn to discussing interna­ 2002, after watching the anniversary activi­ 200.000 to 300,000 innocent people killed tional relations, then we've arrived! ties, and weeping, even though / knew what or maimed each year by drunk drivers? The However, the proper reaction to the was going on with my feelings.

62 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1999 (vol. 23. no. 6): The Universe and Carl Sagan. Davidson I The millennium FILL IN THE GAPS IN YOUR thought contagion, lynch / Debunking the debunkers: A response to astrology. Kelly I The physics behind four amazing demonstrations, Wiiley I Another lunar effect put to rest. Sweet / Special Report: Blooming Skeptical Inquirer COLLECTION shroud claims. Nickell I The star of Bethlehem. Gardner. • 15% discount on orders of $100 or more • SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1999 (vol. 23, no. 5): Special • $6.25 a copy, Vols. 1-18 ($5.00 Vols. 19-25). To order, use reply card insert • Report: Flash! Fox news reports aliens may have built the pyramids. Carrier I Where do we come from?, Pigliucci I Profits and prophecy, Wise / Projective mea­ NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2002 (vol. 26. o. 6): Politi- ter-century of skeptical inquiry, Paul Kurtz I Thoughts sures of personality and psychopathology: How well cizing the Virgin Mary, Eve I Hypothesis testing and id skepticism in the twenty-first century, do they work?. Lilienfeld I What every skeptic ought the nature of skeptical investigations . Pigliucci I tier I Proper criticism, Ray Hyman I The to know about subliminal persuasion, Epley, Savitsky. Intelligent design: Dembski's presentat ion without if skepticism, Pudim I A skeptical look at and Kachelski I Carlos Castaneda and New Age arguments. Perakh I Hugo Gernsback, Karl Popper. Gardner. anthropology, Gardner skeptical crusader. Miller I Alternative MAY/JUNE 2001 (vol. 25. no. 3): The shrinking filedrawer. Stokes / The JULY/AUGUST 1999 (vol. 23. no. 4): Special Issue: medicine and pseudoscience. Morn- Science and Religion. Conflict or Conciliation? stein I Are skeptics cynical?. Mole I Pokemon Panic of 1997. Radford I The Antinous Prophecies, Pickover I Celebrating creation, Raymo I Should skeptical Psychic pets and pet psychics, Nickell. Common myths of children's behavior. inquiry be applied to religion?. Kurtz I The 'Science SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2002 (vol. 26. no. Fiorello I Bertrand Russell and critical and Religion' movement. Scoft / Science and the ver­ 5): Special Report: Circular Reasoning: receptiveness. Hare I CSICOP 25th sus of religion. Palevitz I Science vs. religion. The 'mystery' of crop circles and their Anniversary section: From the editor's Pazameta I Anthropic design, Stenger I Scientific 'orbs' of light. Nickell. Fourth World seat: 25 years of science and skepticism, skepticism. CSICOP. and the local groups. Novella and Skeptics Conference Report / A skeptical Kendrick Frazier I Science vs. pseudo- Bloomberg I Two mind-sets, Allen I God is dead, after look at September 11th. Chapman and science, nonscience. and nonsense. the weather and sports, Reiss I Whence religious Harm I Sheldrake's Crystals, van James Alcock l CSICOP timeline /Primal belief?. Pinker I Non-overlapping magisteria. Gould I Genderen. Koene and Nienhuys I scream: A persistent New Age therapy. You can't have it both ways. Irreconcilable differ­ Teaching skepticism via the CRITIC Gardner. ences?, Dawkins I The concerns of science. Mayr I The acronym, Bartz / Skepticism under the big religious views of Stephen Gould and Charles Darwin, Gardner sky. Schwinden, Engbrecht Mercer and MARCH/APRIL 2001 (vol. 25, no. 2): Patterson I Why was The X-Files so Darwin in mi d, Edis / A bit confused, MAY/JUNE 1999 (vol. 23, no. 3): Special Section: Urban appealing?, Goode I Winchester mystery he Roche I What cca n the paran rmal teach us about con- legends. The snuff film. Sn'ne / Bitter harvest The luse. M'dreff. sciousness?. Bl. kmore I Sp itaneous human confab jrsion of Harry Houdini, organ-snatching urban legends. Radford I Bigfoot's JULY/AUGUST 2002 (vol. 26. no. 4): Sp Kial Report: ulation, Nienhuys I Italy )f 'demon' and 'alien' vis- screen test Daegling and Schmitt I Tracking Bigfoot Alternative medicine and the White House commission, rVrsber / A psychological case itation, Reisner I Distant he iling and Elizabeth Targ, on the Internet. Zuefte / Statement analysis. Shearer I Gorski, London I Special Section: Science and pseudo- Gardner. NAGPRA. science, and the demon-haunted world, science in Russia, Kurtz. Efremov. Kruglyanov / wno Clark I Urine therapy. Gardner. abused lane Doe? Part 2. toftus and Guyer I The high JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2001 (vol. 25, no. 1): Special MARCH/APRIL 1999 (vol. 23. no. 2): Special Report: Section: Issues in Alternative Medicine: Medicine wars, cost of skepticism. Tavris I Graham Hancock's shifting cat­ The ten-percent myth. Radford I Superstition and the Seidman I Herbal medicines and dietary supplements. regression effect. Krvger, Savitsky. and Gilovich I aclysm. Brass I The Mad Gasser of Matloon. Ladendort Allen I Psychoactive herbal medications. Spinella I and Bartholomew I Moscow mysteries, Nickell. Chiropractic. Homola I Damaged goods? Science and Psychology of the seance, Wiseman I Dowsing and MAY/JUNE 2002 (vol. 26, no. 3): Who abused Jane child sexual abuse. Hagen / Special Report: Science archaeology, van Leusen I Hidden messages in DNA?. Doe? Part 1, toftus and Guyer / Is the Mars Effect a indicators 2000 / Facilitated communication. Gardner. Larhammar and Chatzidimitriou I The real Chief social effect?. Dean I Gray Barker's book of bunk. NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2000 (vol. 24, no. 6): The face Seattle was not a spiritual ecologist, Abruzzi I Joint pain and weather. Quick I Acupressure, zone therapy, Sherwood I The king of quacks: Albert Abrams, M.D., behind the Face on Mars. Posner I The new paranat- ural paradigm. Kurtz I Trancis Bacon and the true ends and reflexology, Gardner Haines / Benny Kinii. nedlei ui hypiiulisl?. Nickell. of skepticism, Friedberg I Worlds in collision: Where MARCH/APRIL 2002 (vol. 26, no. 2): Special Reports: reality meets the paranormal, Radford I Why bad JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1999 (vol. 23. no. 1): Special Bioterrorism and alternative medicine. Atwood I beliefs don't die, tester / Supernatural power and cul­ Report: Armageddon and the prophets of doomsday. •Mothman' solved! Nickell I Bigfoot at fifty. Radford I tural evolution, tayng / The brutality of Dr. Fears of the apocalypse, Kurtz I The Bible and the Cripplefoot hobbled, Daegling I Pseudohistory in Bettelheim. Gardner. prophets of doom. Larue I Science and pseudoscience ancient coins. Carrier I Are science and religion com­ in Russia, Kapitza I Testing dowsing: The failure of the patible?, Kurtz I The emptiness of holism, Ruscio I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2000 (vol. 24. no. 5): Voodoo sci­ Munich experiments, Enright IA fallibilist among the ence and the belief gene. Park I Rogerian Nursing Undercover among the spirits. Nickell. cynics, Haack I The internet: A world brain?. Gardner. Theory. Raskin / Sun sign columns. Dean and Mather I NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1998 (vol. 22, no. 6): Gaps in JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2002 (vol 26. no. 1): Myths of The psychic staring effect, Marks and Colwell I the fossil record: A case study, Thomas I The Martian murder and multiple regression. Goenzel I Education, Management of positive and negative responses in a Panic sixty years later Bartholomew I The perils of scientific knowledge, and belief in the paranormal, spiritualist medium consultation, Greasley I The laws of post-hockery, Ruscio I May the force be with you. nature: A skeptic's guide. Pazameta I Special Report: Goode / A university's struggle with chiropractic. Krauss / The Mead-Freeman controversy: On ear cones and candles. Kaushall and . DeRobertis I Snaring the Fowler: Mark Twain debunks A fresh look: Much ado about nothing Kaushall I Little Red Riding Hood. phrenology, Lopez I Three skeptics' debate tools The 'Fateful Hoaxing' of Margaret Gardner. examined, Caso / Mickey Mouse discovers the 'real' Mead. Cote / Margaret Mead. Derek Atlantis. Hardersen I Atlantis behind the myth, JULY/AUGUST 2000 (vol. 24, no. 4): Freeman, and the issue of evolution, Christopher 110th European Skeptics Congress report. Thought Field Therapy: Can we really tap Shankman I Second World Skeptics Mahner I Voodoo in New Orleans. Nickell I Some our problems away?, Gaudiano and Congress Science and reason, foibles Herbert I Absolute skepticism equals thoughts on induction. Gardner. and fallacies, and doomsdays / Science dogmatism, Bunge I Did a close NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2001 (vol. 25. no. 6): A cri­ and the unknowable. Gardner. tique of Schwartz et al.'s after-death communication encounter of the third kind occur on a studies. Wiseman and O'Keeffe 1 Magical thinking in Japanese beach in 1803?, Tanaka I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1998 (vol. 22, no. Rethinking the dancing mania, Barth­ complementary and alternative medicine. Stevens / 5): Special Section: What are the olomew I Has science education become Educational malpractice. Moore I Philosophers and chances?. Coincidences: Remarkable or an enemy of scientific rationality?, £de / random?, Martrn / Numerology: Comes psychics. The Vandy episode. Oldfield I CSICOP 25th Krakatene: Explosive pseudoscience from Anniversary section: The origins and evolution of CSI­ the revoljtion, Dudley I Calculated risks. the Czech Academy of science. Slanina I Cole I How to study weird things, Trocco COP. Nisbet I Never a dull moment. Karr / John David Bohm and Krishnamurti, Gardner. Edward: Hustling the bereaved. Nickell I Ernest / Why would people nor believe weird Hemingway and Jane, Gardner. MAY/JUNE 2000 (vol. 24. no. 3): Special things?. Anderson / Starkle. starkle. little Report: The new bogus MJ-12 docu­ twink. Hayes / Of planets and cognitions: The use of SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2001 (vol. 25. no. 5): Special ments, Mass / Mass delusions and hysterias of the past deductive inference in the natural sciences and psy­ millennium. Bartholomew and Goode I Doomsday Issue: Science and Religion 2001. Holy wan. Tyson / chology. Schlinger Jr. I What's going on at Temple fears at RHrC. Guiterrez I Save our science: The struggle University?. Gardner. The dangerous quest for cooperation between science for rationality at a French university. Broth / and religion. Pandian I Design yes. intelligent no. Paraneuroscience?. Kirklandl Bohm's guided wave the­ JULY/AUGUST 1998 (vol. 22. no. 4): Special Report: Pigliucci I A way of life for agnostics?. Lovelock I ory, Gardner. Mars Global Surveyor photographs 'Face on Mars'. Science, religion, and the Galileo affair, MoylThe god Morrison I Magnetic therapy: Plausible attraction, of falling bodies. Stenger I The relationship between MARCH/APRIL 2000 (vol. 24, no. 2): Risky business: livingston / Biomagnetic pseudoscience and nonsense paranormal beliefs and religious beliefs. Sparks I Vividness, availability, and the media paradox, Ruscio I Physics and the paranormal, 7 Hooft I Efficacy of claims. Sabadell I Catching up with eighteenth century Science and religion in an impersonal universe. Young prayer, Tessman and Tessman I Can we tell if someone science in the evaluation of therapeutic touch. Ball / Arthur C. Clarke's 'Credo.' Clarke / A designer uni­ is staring at us?. Baker I Assessing the quality of med­ verse?, Weinberg I An evolutionary-genetic wager. and Alexander I Paranormal depictions in the media: ical Web sites, levi / The demon-haunted sentence. How do they affect what people believe?. Sparks / Avise / Shroud of Turin scandals. Nickell / Multiverses Byrne and Normandl Mad messiahs. Gardner. and blackberries, Gardner. Planting a seed of doubt Shneour I Essiac The not-so- JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2000 (vol. 24, no. 1): Special remarkable cancer remedy. McCutcheon I Near-Earth JUIY/AUGUST 2001 (vol. 25. no. 4): Confronting vet­ Report: The ten outstanding skeptics of the twentieth objects: Monsters of Doom?. Gardner. erinary medical nonsense. Imrie I Junk science and the century / Two paranormalisms or two and a halt ?. Goode law. Codes / Chevreul's report on the mysterious oscil­ I Anna Eva Fay. Polidoro I The pseudoscience of oxygen lations of the hand-held pendulum. Spitz and therapy. Allen I Confessions of a (former) graphologist. For a complete listing of our back issues, call 800-634- Marcuard I CSICOP 25th Anniversary section: A quar- Thpician I The Second Coming of Jesus, Gardner. 1610. or see http:"ww«.cs>cop.org.'si/back-issues.html When I have tried to talk with family and about things that affect their beliefs. Their about killing Americans. ... friends about the points in the article, how­ mindset is further solidified by the hype of It offends me to see intelligent individu­ ever, die argument I received was about how media and politicians, the one interested als whining about the necessary usurpation September 11 was an attack on our shores the only in making money, the other in being re­ of economic and social agendas while the likes of which has not happened since Pearl elected. So overreaction is built into the country is at war . . . "the economic and Harbor, and how the national reaction that American psyche. The pendulum is always emotional damage unleashed by 9/11, which time was for the U.S. to join the Allies to swinging too far in one direction or the touched the lives of all Americans, resulted t the fascists, and as an American Jew, I'm other. One of the roles of skeptics is to damp mostly from our own reactions to 9/11 and glad they did. However, people conveniently these swings with practical rationality, not the anthrax scare, rather than from objective forget the unfair and unconstitutional actions necessarily to overreact to incidental stupidi­ damage." All of those things that Chapman against innocent Japanese Americans and ties along the way. and Harris seek to reinstate with diverted German Americans—and the many excesses funds from homeland security would not J.C. Toomay committed against blameless American citi­ exist if we weren't willing to defend ourselves Carlsbad, California zens during the McCarthy-era witch hunts by widi necessary force. the FBI, and later described as regrettable, all in the name of patriotism.... I think everyone can agree that, in the face of Bryan Schomakcr an emotionally overwhelming event as Atlanta, Georgia So—when I see the flags waving and hear September 11 di, a rational reflection of the the exhortations to "patriotism" in a way that event and what's happened since is of die excuses government from constitutionality, It's a shame that these two authors could not essence. However, Clark Chapman and Alan I'm skeptical, but I'm not sure how to bal­ articulate their valid points regarding "accept- Harris give us mere intellectual clutter when ance the grief I feel for innocents retained at able risk" and the costs of overreaction to the they compare the destruction of the twin Manazanar against rhe elation of seeing the terrorist attacks without injecting their polit­ towers to traffic fatalities and deaths from footage of the liberation of die Nazi dcadi ical agendas, or using sarcastic put-downs. hurricanes and floods. Certainly in raw num­ camps—I'm not sure how to validate a pro­ They also fail to understand the validity bers diey may be greater but when making a tester's First Amendment right to express of an intensive counterattack on those that moral evaluation is not motive also to be anti-war sentiments, and at the same time support terrorism. Our country was attacked judged? The motives of legislators who don't honor a Viet Nam veteran who served fund cancer or AIDS research as well as they and it's valid to assume that an overwhelm­ because wirJi die information available to should which may result in deaths, for exam­ ing military response can act as a deterrent him or her at the time it seemed like the ple, is surely rationally distinguishable from a for future barbaric acts of this type. right thing to do. When I just go ahead and totalitarian ideology where people murdered It is natural for the reaction to such speak my mind, inevitably it comes out because they're too contemptible to live. shocking events to be disproportional; the sounding like I am an insensitive, unsympa­ real issue is what happens in the long term. thetic rationalist. I admire tiiat the audiors Already we are beginning to see some of the admitted that they were touched by the TV Gus Rudelich "knee-jerk" security measures being relaxed. coverage of 9/11, even rhough they knew Milwaukee, Wisconsin Eventually, and I predict quite soon, we will their feelings were being manipulated. We are at war. We may not have a clearly return to "business as usual," but hopefully I suppose I am confused because I am defined enemy, but nonedieless war has been with a few well thought out changes. trying to compare this terrorist attack and declared on America. In the contract of war, Finally, it does your publication a disser­ the military responses to it, the details of it is our obligation to respond. Otherwise, vice when your editors don't assure that sub­ which arc either hidden from die public or we may as well open the doors and say, missions stick to the subject. It appears that are not yet calculable, with historical con­ "Come kill our citizenry. We don't care." The the real issue for these authors is that dicir flicts, which have had outcomes tiiat arc societal danger is much greater with terror­ asteroid impact project has not received die themselves sometimes ambiguous. ism and war than with natural disasters and funding they desire. Nor have we as a society SI was very brave to run this story. Thanks. random accidents. spent our money on the political agendas that Wendy Hughes Are Chapman and Harris saying that we the authors personally feel arc important. N. Hollywood, California shouldn't respond to declarations of war? Neither of these have any relevance to What about WWII and the cost of entering terrorism and didn't belong in the article. I am impressed with die audiors' appeal for the conflict after America was attacked? The The fact is, we do not have a "zero-sum bud­ more objective analyses on public spending, cost was great, but what choice did we have? get" as they claim (as is evident in the bud­ and of their interesting data (although not Should we have adopted a more "objective" get deficits caused by security-related spend­ new) on the relative risk of various factors response rhen? WWII would have gone away ing). Their arguments for rational response if we just ignored it? which threaten our lives. But the ivory tower to terror would have far more weight if they of planetary science is not the real world. On September II, Americans on didn't use the article as a forum for their "Rational analyses" based on die the concept American soil were attacked by a renegade unrelated politics. that all lives arc of equal value arc unaccept­ band of intelligent, well-organized thugs able for two reasons: The first is that the bent on declaring war with our country. David Shier World Trade Center arrack was not just "mali­ These are megalomaniacs with the guts to Newport Beach, California cious," it was part of a ruthless long-term declare war even when they have no conven­ effort to bring us down. Our response, as with tional army and with no regard for the con­ The entire theme of the article is advocating die sinking of die Maine, die Lusitania, and ventions of one of civilization's oldest social non-emotional responses to the terrorists. die attack on Pearl Harbor, was from deep in structures. They have reduced the conven­ Does either author truly feel that an analytical our gut, rationality be damned. tion of war to irresponsible and indefensible approach to terrorism will deter future acts of butchery. These are people who don't care The second is that human beings are violence? Does either gentleman actually about winning a war as much as they care genetically incapable of thinking objectively think that by attempting to minimize the

64 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER events of that day and subsequent days that should treat their threat as perilous. One man about whether government expenditures on the people will come to their senses (in the may declare war on the U.S.A.; but surely the impact hazard should be increased; we merely authors' opinions)? That we look upon die level of our response must depend on analyzing offered this as one more point-of comparison September 11 attacks as a math problem of his capabilities: is he a blithering fool in an with the massive post-91 II expenditures. All the number of lives lost that day versus floods, asylum who could do little harm, a Timothy such comparisons we posed as questions for dis­ diseases, traffic fatalities, homicides, and any McVeigh who could harm some but hardly pre­ cussion, unlike the assertions common in many other statistic that is thrown into the mix will vail, or a dictator with his finger on the button of these letters. make the attacks pale in comparison? of a vast arsenal of nuclear-equipped long- Unfortunately, hype by media and politi­ These were attacks on American soil by range missiles? Osama bin Laden is closer to a cians of both parties has had a chilling effect on fanatical, cowardly people who had, and McVeigh than to a Khrushchev, in our opinion, frank dissent concerning our headlong rush those of dieir still intact regime continue to but let's debate the facts instead of just presum­ toward "at war" national priorities. We are have, a burning hatred of all that is ing or asserting that war and massive home­ grateful, however, to the many readers who American—which includes the ability of the land defense are necessary responses. empathized with, and supported, our analysis authors to pursue their lives as they see fit in A couple letter writers confidently adopt a and wrote to us privately a country that is free and where the people "geometric curve" analogy to forecast devastat­ We'll close by quoting more fully from arc not dictated to on how to feci about ing future deaths. They join the ranks of for­ Franklin D. Roosevelt's 1933 first inaugural events that occur or how much emotion they tune tellers (more often debunked in these address (it had nothing to do with Pearl are allowed to express. ... pages) whose forecasts may or may not be true. Harbor), which seems very appropriate for our Perhaps the authors should have [gone to By now we should all realize "Past performance times. He asserted his firm belief "thai the only Ground Zero and] spoken with people who is no indication of future growth. " Other letters thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, were there to learn and understand what the offer versions of a common logical fallacy: unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes attacks really mean. Then I believe the for­ because Hitler had small beginnings, any tin­ needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. " mation for their call tor a rational approach horn fanatic is likely to become a Hitler . . . might have been tempered with exactly what when in fact most will not (and it is problem­ they seem to fear—emotion. atic to identify which if any might). RESPONSE TO ERTEl Patricia M. Browne Some writers insist that we are "at war, ° From page 64 Ha/let, New Jersey as President Bush has said, though few Americans act as if it were so. This "war" hospital births in 1987-1994 showed a strong Clark Chapman and Alan Harris respond- resembles the "War on Drugs" or the "War on midnight avoidance, disaffirming any link with Some readers still react viscerally to the Cancer": well-motivated but endless endeav­ witches. (Avoidance was only of the witching ors that sometimes progress, often not. Despite minute 0:00, not of 0:01 onwards, despite a ten­ September II attacks. Arguments based on what Richard Morrock suggests, the capture dency to round to the nearest five minutes, so it "you hud to be tlieie " (in New York City) or on was only to avoid ambiguity. If anything it supports or death of Osama bin Laden will not cleanly some moral imperative to respond maximally to nineteenth century beliefs about the witching end terrorism. Europeans have long lived hour 0:00-0:59.) ruthless, bloodthirsty fanatics reflect under­ with terrorism; it is not demanded of their 3. Ertel (1990) had thirty students son the standable emotional reactions to a horrific leaders that other societal goals be sidelined Gauquelin professions into alike groups, e.g.. actors event. But they are not a rational basts for until they have met their "obligation" to end and musicians seemed more alike rhan actors and responsible policies of a great twenty-first cen­ all terrorism. Terrorism uniquely stirs our soldiers. A cluster analysis of their results, and of planetary effects, gave similar clusters, broadly Art tury nation. Some feel that the terrorists' hate­ emotions, but—in the end—/'/ really is just (e.g. painters). Science (e-g., scientists), and Action ful motives somehow demand revenge and ret­ another serious hazard that we would do (e.g, soldiers and sports champions), showing that ribution; but that "logic" is for schoolyards and well to analyze dispassionately and respond to planetary effects are not haphazard but conform to human views. But this is exactly what social effects alleyways, not the pages of SKEPTICAL proportionately. Otherwise, by our own over- reactions (as the terrorists hope), we further would predict. In my update I show that day avoid­ INQUIRER. ances give similar dusters. That is. whether dus- endanger our country, its values, and its eco­ Most letters have at least an internal logic: icred by students, by planetary effects, or by day nomic well-being. avoidances, the ten Gauquelin professions give for those who believe that the barbarians are broadly similar results, which should not be if there truly at the gate, that our nation is on the We never did suggest not responding at all was no link between sodal and planetary effects. brink of destruction, that national survival is "sticking our head in the sand " "not acting to really at stake, and that we're seriously in dan­ thwart," or "just ignoring " the 9/11 assaults, as References ger of extermination, then surely a massive some readers accuse. We advocated "prudent, response is appropriate. We wrote: "But who fbcussed improvements in security" and "plug­ Bolleme, G. 1969. IJS almanacks populaires aux XVIle et XVlIIe siecles: Essai J'histoirr sociale. believes that?" Obviously, some SI readers do ging security loopholes" lest thousands or mil­ Paris: Mouton. page 41. believe that, though not even the most hawkish lions more might be killed. We advocated more Dean, G. 2000. Attribution: A pervasive new arti­ policy-makers in the Bush Administration have "balance.' That it "could be as important to fact in the Gauquelin data. Astrology under argued that Al Qaeda—or even Saddam combat our emotional vulnerability to terrorism Scrutiny 13: 1-72. A four-page update (May Hussein—is powerful and capable enough to as to attack AJ Qaeda"—not that we shouldn't 2002) covers points raised by readers and pre­ credibly threaten our nation's existence. Surely sents new tests that support the original find­ attack AJ Qaeda al all Please re-read our arti­ ings. An abstract and information on how to any skeptic must acknowledge that such a cle and reflect on the words we actually wrote. obtain copies are at www.astrology-and- premise is at least rationally debatable: most of sdence.com/. We regret that a reader fell we inserted some the world apparently disputes the U.S. govern­ personal agenda into our article by mentioning End, S. 1990. Gauquelin'scontention s scrutinized. ment's post-9/11 assessments and policies. In G.J.M. Tomassen. W. de Graaff. A.A. a hazard concerning which we are experts—the Knoop. and R. Hengeveid (eds.). Gnwwmic fust because terrorists have "declared war' threat of asteroid or comet impact on Earth. In rrlations: The earth and its macnhenvinnmenL and seek to destroy us hardly means that we reality, we have both been publicly ambivalent Wageningcn: Pudoc, pages 255-266.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2003 65 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Also see "Readers Forum: Can We Read More forms . .. each corresponding to a local 2. Bernstein, Joel. 2002. Polymorphism in Rationally to Terrorism?" on pages 59-65. energy minimum that differs a bit from the Molecular Crystals. Oxford University Press, p. 23. —EDITOR others." However, contrary to Sheldrake's belief, the Gibbs free-energy function has William B. Jensen everything to do with this picture as it is the Oesper Professor of free-energy values of the various polymorphs Chemistry Sheldrake's Crystal Claims that define the depth of each (free) energy University of Cincinnati minimum and determine which of the vari­ Cincinnati, Ohio I read with interest the article by van ous coexisting polymorphs is the thermody­ Genderen, Koene, and Nienhuys (Sept­ namically stable form. It is also important to ember/October 2002), concerning Rupert note that the thermodynamically stable poly­ If morphic resonance causes the melting point Sheldrake's morphogenetic rationale of the morph generally has a higher melting point of crystalline compounds to rise, then when a apparent time-dependent shifting of the than the kinetically metastable forms. Thus newly synthesized substance crystallizes for melting points of organic crystals. Though I the kinetically metastable forms of the com­ the first time, shouldn't the melting point rise have no doubt that many of the instances pound sulphathiazole melt at 175°C, as each successive crystal is formed, or is there whereas the thermodynamically stable form a minimum number of crystals that must melts at 200°C. form before a measurable increase in melting point occurs? On rhc other hand, considering The free energy maxima (known as free the vastness of the universe, it is highly energies of activation) separating the various unlikely that there is any compound that has minima also determine the rate at which the not existed somewhere, either naturally or kinetically metastable forms irreversibly con­ artificially, at some time during the past bil­ vert to the thermodynamically stable form— lions of years. Since Sheldrake's morphogenic a process which is accelerated not by a so- fields propagate instantaneously throughout called morphogenetic field, but by heating, the universe without loss of strength, all by contact with a solvent or moisture, by chemical compounds should by now have contact with a foreign substance (such as reached their equilibrium melting points. dust or hair), by melting and rccrystalliza- cited by Sheldrake may be explained, as sug­ tion, or by contact with a seed crystal of the gested by the authors, as examples of freez­ stable form. ing-point depression due to the contamina­ Art Davison tion of the crystals by the preparative Indeed, the latter mechanism forms the Edmonton, Alberta reagents and/or by-products, by thermal basis of Kurt Vonnegut's famous novel Cat's Canada decomposition products, or by imperfect Cradle, in which it is discovered that normal resolution of optical enantiomers in the case ice is actually kinetically metastable relative of chiral materials, there is a second possible to a recently discovered polymorph known Sheldrake's morphogenetic field: First, it 1 explanation which, in some ways, better fits as ice-nine. Unlike normal ice, which melts sounds a lot like it came out of David Brin's the facts, though it in no way supports at 0°C at 1 atmosphere, ice-nine melts at novel The Practice Effect. Second, the authots Sheldrake's morphogenetic hypothesis. This 54.4°C or 130°F. Contact of water with ice- mention that these fields (according to has to do with the phenomenon of crystal nine crystals eventually converts all of the Sheldrake) do not diminish with distance. If polymorphism, or the fact that many mole­ water on Earth to a solid at room tempera­ this is true, then anything that has been crys­ cules are capable of adopting more than one ture, with predictable consequences for the tallized anywhere in the universe by anyone or intermolecular arrangement in the solid existence of life. anything would contribute to this field. So if state. These alternative arrangements or As indicated in the recent monograph by Sheldrake is right and this effect can be polymorphs not only have distinctive shapes, Joel Bernstein,' the initial crystallization of a detected, then Earth is the only planet with they may also differ in their color, solubility, new organic compound often corresponds to life on it in the univetsc. And if it can't be chemical reactivity, and melting points. a metastable polymorph with a lower melt­ detected, then aliens and life must therefore be somewhere else. So Sheldrake's fields are In the ideal thermodynamic case, each ing point, and this, over the course of time, unfalsifiable if you belong to the UFOlogist polymorph is stable over its own individual is eventually converted to the thermodynam­ crowd. . . . range of temperatures and pressures and, ically stable form with the higher melting when that range is exceeded, it changes into point. He further notes that, once the ther­ a new polymorph. These interconversions modynamically stable form is prepared, it William McDaid are reversible and occur at a fixed transition may be impossible to again prepare the ini­ Assistant Professor of temperature analogous to the melting and tial metastable form (shades of Vonnegut!). Astronomy freezing points which separate the solid and Bernstein also notes that synthetic organic Sacramento City College liquid states. In actual practice, however, sev­ chemists are frequently unaware of the com­ Sacramento, California eral polymorphs may coexist at the same plications produced by polymorphism and temperature and pressure, in which case only cites several lawsuits over pharmaceutical patents based on a misunderstanding of this one of them is thermodynamically stable. In I am not a chemist but I believe my modest phenomenon. this case the other polymorphs are said to be background in physics qualifies me to com­ "kinetically metastable." This picture is vir­ ment on Sheldrake's statements and hypothe­ tually identical to that which the authors References sis, and I won't need pages of chemical analy­ attribute to Sheldrake in which a substance sis to do so. First, I believe we can pass over the exhibits "many slightly different crystal 1. Vonnegut, Run. 1966. Cats Cradle. Holt. Rinehart and Winston. comments regarding natural "laws" since the

66 ianuary/february 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

scientific community is well aware of what is Is it not about time for it to become gen­ proponents: If the goal is to teach ID/crcarion- meant by "laws." I don't think die debate is erally recognized that Nelson correcdy identi­ isin in public schools along with or instead of about whether all natural laws are subjea to fies why methodological naturalism should be evolutionary theory, which version of die cre­ change. It will be time enough to address that omitted from definitions of science? Science is ation story would the ID folks promote? issue when and if it is determined that die properly defined not by the "naturalness" of There is the Biblical version, the Native melting point of some chemically pure sub­ the concepts (e.g.. matter and energy) used in American version, the Hindu version, the stance is not constant over time when deter­ its explanations, but by such "metaphysically Shinto version, etc. Surely schools teaching mined under standard conditions. If I were neutral" criteria as testability, parsimony, falsi- ID/creationism should be obliged to teach confronted with the claim that the melting fiability, fruitfulncss, ten rati veness, and an every version of the Creation story and let the point of a certain substance was not a constant absence of preconception. Defined in this students compare and contrast them. This I would want to know the purity of the sam­ way, science is not subject to Nelson's charge way, intellectual honesty would be achieved. ple, sample size, number of samples tested, test that it fails to consider the full range of possi­ Unless, of course, it's not really about conditions, reliability of data, and the reputa­ ble explanations. intellectual honesty after all tion of the tester before I accepted the claim as Science currently uses "natural" explana­ David F. DeLuca valid. An application of Occam's Razor would tions, not because of any a priori assumption, Hightstown, New Jersey lead me to reject any conclusions as to the but because such explanations have been cause of the variance based on hypothetical found to meet the above neutral criteria much morphic fields and morphic resonances, the better than all known alternatives, including operations of which seems to mc to border on intelligent design and other "supernatu- Questioning Psychic the paranormal and be akin to homeopathy. ralisms." Research

Lynn A. Smitherman John G. Fletcher Reading Gary E. Schwartz's Follow-up in Alpine, Arizona Livermore, California your September/October issue, I was struck by the possibility that psychic researchers arc running a con game. This would explain why As a nonscientist I was both troubled and puz­ they keep doing experiments which they Dinosaurs and DNA zled by Wesley Elsberry's explanation of the know full well lack adequate controls against "wedge tactic" of the Intelligent Design move­ various forms of bias and cheating. It's always Nothing makes mc happier than hearing ment. Troubled because I think that it implies the next experiment which will correct the about people who try to introduce critical a "descent" of science (after 500 years of flaws. They always need just a bit more time thinking to the general public ("Skepticism "ascent") and puzzled over how this may be ... and funding. It seems a very easy way of Under the Big Sky," September/October brought about. Can the creationists really making a living, and they receive the respect 2002). Although I very much enjoyed most of make an "end run" around the scientific com­ and authority afforded real scientists to boot. the authors' anecdotes I had to pause when munity and effectuate the political acceptance Perhaps it's time for SKEPTICAL INQUIRER they compared reconstructing a dinosaur of ID theory in our educational system? If so, to stop playing along with these "researchers." this would seem to represent some sort of using "a few fragments of DNA" with build­ If they have a history of nothing but positive Americanized version of "Lysenkoism." ing the space shuttle using only "a few strands results with flawed experiments, and have of wire and a piece of the tail fin." I don't In The Demon-Haunted World the late Carl been told over and over how to design a think most people expect a piece of the space Sagan described how the politically correct but proper experiment, they should be called out shunk- to contain a partial or even complete scientifically erroneous genetic theories of as intentional frauds. micro-blueprint of the entire shuttle, but they Trofim Lysenko were imposed on the Soviet are aware that "a few fragments of DNA" may educational system by Stalin and later Allen Gilliam contain a great deal of information about a Khrushchev resulting in an egregious setback Winter Park. Florida dinosaur. for genetic theory in that country. Sagan went on to observe: "Americans tend to shake their Brian Fuss heads in astonishment at the Soviet experi­ One question I have never had answered Stanford Linear Accelerator ence. The idea that some state-endorsed ideol­ regarding mediums is why they have to ask Center (SLAC) ogy or popular prejudice would hog-tie scien­ questions of their "sitters" in the first place. Stanford University tific progress seems unthinkable." Yet, it seem Schwartz, explaining how the experiment Stanford, California to mc, this is precisely what the Discovery attempted to eliminate sensory clues, states it Institute hopes to accomplish. allowed "... only yes/no responses from sit­ The remarks attributed to William ters. ..." It seems to me that if someone is Intelligent Design Debate Dembski were particularly frightening and, to communicating with a deceased relative, there mc, demonstrate that he is neither a scientist would be absolutely no reason to ask any ques­ The summary in die September/October nor a philosopher. He is a demagogue. tions or receive any confirmation whatsoever. A medium should be able to say something 2002 issue of the Fourth Worid Skeptics J. Alan Bock like, "I am talking with your mother Susan Conference quotes intelligent design advocate Pittsford, New York Paul Nelson as saying, "Why not suspend nat­ who says to tell your father Steve that she loves uralism as an a priori hypothesis and let the him and that he will be successful in his sales presentation at 1:00 P.M. next Tuesday. Also, evidence decide? The dilemma the scientific As I read the accounts of the ID versus evolu­ she says to pass on her love to your sisters Sally community faces is not being open to all pos­ tion debate, I trembled at the notion ili.it no and Sarah and your brother Steve, Jr." It seems sibilities." I here is no indication that diis crit­ one promoting evolution had the courage to strange to me that any medium would be able icism was answered or, if so, how. ask a simple question of the ID/creationism

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Unuary/Febfuary 2003 67 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

to pick up only one letter of a name, a generic took on this movie in the same issue, since it Andrew R. Joppa cause of death, an approximate date for some presents and implies a number of anti-science Assistant Professor of event, or any other fuzzy information. They viewpoints. Management/Leadership should never have to ask the sitter for confir­ Spurred on by Joe's article, as well as gen­ Mercy College mation of any sort, especially for things that erally positive reviews and box office longevity, Dobbs Ferry, New York the deceased would know with certainty. If I decided to wander over to the neighborhood the deceased is actually speaking through the Gigaplex and check it out. The film itself was medium, they should be able to state the infor­ a ghasdy conglomeration of mushy illogic. Donna M. Brown includes one statement that mation unequivocally, shouldn't they? The low point, for me at least, was the seg­ every critic of the schools can endorse: ment where the space aliens show up in "Cultural values in America uniquely impact Glenn Rimbey earnest, and a TV commentator boldly upon how American students spend their time Seattle, Washington announces that "everything in the science in school." It is clear that her own values, and books is wrong." This nonsensical statement those that prevail in the public schools today, was repeated at least once in the course of the assign a low status to academic knowledge. Crop Circles movie. I guess I've missed reading all those sci­ Students in other countries, she says disparag­ ence books thai deny the possibility of other ingly, are pressured to maintain excellent life forms in the universe. And even if such a I much enjoyed Joe Nickell's article "Circular grades, while Americans are "broadly" edu­ statement ever had appeared in a reputable Reasoning" (SI September/October 2002) cated through sports, clubs, community ser­ publication, the arrival of aliens certainly about the artificiality of "crop circles" or agri­ vice, and part-time jobs. If, while in school, wouldn't be cause to dismiss "everything" cultural graphics as photographer Yann they do not acquire basic competence in sci­ related to science.... Arthus-Bertrand (The Earth from the Air 365 ence and mathematics, or even in reading and writing, never fear; they will pick it up later. Robert W. Smith Where and how? From watching TV? Harahan, Louisiana David A. Shotwell Alpine, Texas America's Public Schools

The Forum column by Donna Brown, I have a problem with Donna Brown's analysis "American Schools: How They Measure Up" on American schools. My experience as an (September/October 2002), theoretically electrical engineer has made me come in con­ offers information establishing that American tact wich many American and foreign engi­ schools stack up well with international com­ neers and within the last fifteen years I have Days by Arthus-Bertrand) terms them. A petitors. Her column, in reality, does nothing found that very few Americans want to major further interesting observation is how appar­ of the sort. At best, it establishes differences in in the sciences or math. In the trade journal ently law-abiding the creators of these graph­ the American system as compared to foreign Microwave Theory and Techniques, there are lit­ ics are. As noted by the BBC News (http:// models. She then loads this "objective" piece erally no American authors writing the techni­ news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/sci/tech/1496296. with suggestions, without validation, of the cal papers and furthermore when one looks at stm) and by myself on my Web site last year, high level quality of the American student and the university student and faculty members in at the time of the UK's hoof and mouth epi­ the schools that created them. the electrical engineering departments, you demic, where I wrote, "In general the aliens, will see mostly people from Asia or Europe. I great ones, magnetic vortices, human artists The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER should be true to was told by an American high school student seem to have heeded the British government's its paradigm. The position that must be who studied in Germany for three years that strict rules regarding countryside access dur­ viewed "skeptically" is the ongoing rationaliza­ his senior year here in the states was so easy he ing the recent foot and mouth disease epi­ tions of the American educational "profession­ literally had to do nothing. So I wonder if the demic amongst livestock. Then, when the als." American students, whether they are article really addresses the problem in this restrictions were lifted circles bloomed...." It compared by "average to average" or "top end country with the science and math issues. is good to know respect for the law still runs to top end," perform at some of the lowest lev­ strong with who or whatever makes these els in the industrial world. Additional infor­ William J. Garner often beautiful designs. mation confirms that our high school gradu­ [email protected] ates know little about history (including our Thank you for SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, own) and all too many cannot make sense of which I consider essential reading. the New York Times. Their math skills, com­ Brown's educant apology for the production of Ross Sargent pared to much of the world, are thin, with lit- ignorant students consists of the same bunch Folkestone, Kent de potential to be applied. Most of the human of alibis and rationalizations we've been fed by United Kingdom events that preceded them on this planet are education professors and the NEA for decades. seen as boring and useless. We wouldn't need this litany of excuses for our If the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is to be true to schools if they measured up. I read with some interest Joe Nickell's typically its mission it must realize that the absurd belief Her arguments have been devastatingly excellent article on crop circles, and assume systems that characterize America (probably refuted many times. It would be fatuous and that this article was published in response to the most primitive in the industrial worid) arc tedious for me to in and do it all over again in the recent popular movie Signs. I was some­ direct extensions of the absurdities taught in a letter. For anyone interested, I suggest they what disappointed that no one on your staff many of our public schools. read The Feel-Good Curriculum: The Dumbing

68 January/February 2003 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Down of America's Kids in the Name of Self researchers calculate the p-value is nor impor­ My Close-Up Encounter Esteem by Maureen Stout, and Inside American tant," he's not evincing ignorance or suggest­ Education: The Decline, the Deception, the ing neutrality regarding what constitutes a With An MFO Dogmas by Thomas Sowell. good or bad p-value. He's simply telling the (Misidentified Flying reader (who's probably a layman) that it's Object) Don Hirschberg important for him to know what a p-value is Horseshoe Bend, Arkansas and why it's important, but not how p-values Nighttime. Sitting in my backyard. It had fin­ are derived and all the issues attendant ished raining and the sky became clear. thereto. Hines is correct, of course, to point Looking between two buildings in the dis­ Junk Science Judo out that a lot of mischief can occur beneath tance, I can sec three, sometimes four, bril­ that radar screen, but authors who write for liant white spheres against the dark sky. They After reading Terence Hines's vitriolic review laymen have to pick and choose their scien­ are like flattened circles—disc-like. This clus­ of Steven Milloy's Junk Science Judo ("A tific battles lest they lose the audience they ter of light-beaming objects are hovering— Blunderbus Approach to Criticism of wish to keep engaged. Statistics," September/October 2002). I can moving speedily back and forth but staying in The same issue arises in Hines's argument only conclude that Mr. Hines has a generalized the same general location. After looking for that the book is derelict by not tearing apart contempt for books not aimed at fellow acad­ some time in wonderment, the skeptic in me the alleged economic costs that smokers sup­ emics. He's got a right to his own preferences, investigates. Walking toward the fence staring, posedly inflict on society. While Hines is cor­ of course, but his nasty review of Mr. Milloy's I think these glowing spheres look like rect that there's much that could be said here, book did a great disservice to your readers. unidentified flying saucers. Closer to the fence Milloy is writing a book about junk science, I discover that these things are ten inches Sure, the book failed to target all the junk not junk economics. away—a mere ten feet away from where I first science that deserved to be shot apart. That's In sum, hammering a book for being nar­ observed them! because, first, such an effort would turn a rowly focused and aimed at laymen instead of I assumed that the objects were far away quick primer into a very long book, which being broadly focused and aimed at the pro­ and behaving like so many accounts of saucer might chase away the readers Milloy was hop­ fessoriate is hardly fair. If Fred Seirz, a past ship maneuvers. ing to attract. Second, and more important, president of the National Academy of What happened? After a rain, if you look the author was primarily concerned with illus­ Sciences, found the book unobjectionable closely, you will find many spider webs trating the typical problems with alarmist junk from a scientific perspective, I suspect that being created. science (the common denominators, if you fair-minded readers are safe relying on its con­ One such web line B-lincd from my patio will), not with a point-by-point refutation of tents as well. every crackpot study that has hit the media. umbrella to the fence (a distance of four feet). Examples were used to illustrate the proce­ Jerry Taylor On it were several globules of rain, three or dural criticisms, and only one or two were nec­ Director, Natural Resource four of which were exposed to the light from essary to explain the weaknesses of this or that Studies a nearby street lamp. methodology. Still, Hines is clearly in error Cato Institute With this new understanding, I kept look­ when he complains that the book ignored the [email protected] ing. The globules of rain, too small to fall off hysterias surrounding electromagnetic fields by their own weight, moved back and forth as surrounding power lines or breast implants. the web strand wavered in the gende breeze. Readers will find reference to those issues on Those lea Stones Close up, I could see the lamp gleaming along pages 76 and 13-15, respectively. the single section of web string. This illustrated to me yet another example Hines's accusation that Milloy fails to Massimo Polidoro's "lea Stones: Yabba- of how people are fooled by what they see and understand or appreciate statistical analysis is Dabba-Do!" (September/October) has a glar­ how contrasting an alternative explanation absurd. Milloy does not argue that statistics are ing omission. These alleged antiquities were can be found upon objective investigation. useless, just that they're not the whole story. first made famous by Eric von Daniken—and devastating^ refuted as evidence for "ancient Hines's suggestion that statistics can indeed be Robert K. Chapman astronauts" or anything other than fraud. Carl used to prove causc-and-effcct relationships Hamilton, Ontario Sagan's PBS/Nova broadcast, "The Case of the evinces the problem. There simply must be a Canada biological explanation to support a statistical Ancient Astronauts" (1978), showed von association in the field of public health or the Daniken pontificating on several stones and then showed the stones being engraved and environmental sciences. Despite what Hines The letters column is a forum for would have us believe, inferential statistical artificially aged (sic) by forgers. Shown the views on matters raised in previ­ analyses aren't particularly helpful in health clear evidence, von Daniken seemed momen­ ous issues. Letters should be no studies because that form of analysis assumes tarily nonplused. This program was broadcast more than 225 words. Due to the volume of letters not all can be that the data arc precisely what they appear to several times and then distributed as film and video for classroom use. It was one of the most published. Address letters to represent. As Milloy points out time and rime Letters to the Editor, SKEPTICAL devastating exposes of von Daniken's prepos­ again, however, they frequendy arc not. INQUIRER. Send by mail to 944 Deer terous claims, and the lea stones were one of Dr. NE. Albuquerque. NM 87122; Can Milloy really be blamed for not the clearest major features which von Daniken by fax to 505-828-2080; or by e- inflicting on laymen a thorough discussion of could not refute or explain away, since we saw mail to letters©csicop.org (include inferential statistical analysis or p-values, par­ them being faked, firsthand. name and address). ticularly when one doesn't need to know the details of those fields to smell a scientific rat? John R_ Cole When Milloy, for instance, writes "how Oakland. California

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2003 69 THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION of Claims of the Paranormal AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNATIONAL (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Network of Affiliated Organizations International AUSTRALIA. Canberra Skeptics. Canberra CHINA. China Association for Science and KAZAKHSTAN. Kazakhstan Commission for Australia. Peter Barrett. President. PO Box 555, Technology. China. Shen Zhenyu Research the Investigation of the Anomalous Civic Square ACT 2608 Australia. Australian Center, P.O. Box 8113. Beijing China. Hong Phenomena (KCIAP) Kazakhstan. Dr. Sergey Skeptics Inc.. Australia. Barry Williams, Kong Skeptics. Hong Kong. Brad Collins. P.O. Efimov, Scientific Secretary. E-mail: efimO Executive Officer. Tel. 61-2-9417-2071; e-mail: Box 1010. Shatin Central Post Office, Shatin NT afi.south-capital.kz. Astrophysical Institute [email protected]. PO Box 268, Roseville China. 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Manuel Abraham Australia. Dr. John Happs. President. Tel.: 61-8- Cedex 2 France, www.unice.fr/zetetique/. Paz-y-Mino. Tel.: +51-1-9215741; e-mail: cip- 9448-8458; e-mail: wa.skepticsOaustraliamail. GERMANY. Gesellschaft zur wissenschaft siperuOyahoo.com. El Corregidor 318 Rimac, com PO Box 899. Morley, WA 6062 Australia. lichen Unterrsuchung von Parawissen- Lima 25 Peru, www.geocities.com/cipsiperu. BELGIUM. Comite Beige Pour .'Investigation schaften (GWUP) Germany. Amardeo Sarma. POLAND. Polish Skeptics. Poland. Adam Scientifique des Phenomenes Reputes Chairman. Tel.: 49-6154-695023. E-mail: Pietrasiewicz. E-mail: redaktorOiname.com. Pananormaux Comite Para. Belgium. J. infoOgwup.org. Arheilger Weg 11 D-64380 www.biuletynsceptyczny.z-pl. Dommanget. President of the Committee. E- Rossdorf, Germany, www.gwup.org. European PORTUGAL. Associacao Cepticos de Portugal mail: omer.nysOoma.be. Observatoire Royal Council of Skeptical Organizations (ECSO) (CEPO) Portugal. Ludwig Krippahl. 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Atheist Centre, Dr. Vijayam, Executive SINGAPORE. Singapore Skeptics. Contact: Gutman. Tel.: 55-21-548-2476; e-mail: fernan- Director. Benz Circle. Vijayawada 520 010. Ronald Ng. E-mail: ronaldngOiname.com. dogutmanOhotmail.com. Rua Santa Clara, 431 Andhra Pradesh. India. Tel.: 91 866 472330, Fax: www.skeptic.iwarp.com. Bloco 5, Apt. 803. Copacabana-Rio de Janeiro 91 866 473433. E-mail: atheistOvsnl.com. SLOVAK REPUBLIC (SACT). Slovak Republic. Igor 22041-010 Brazil, www.opcaoracional.com.br. Maharashtra Andhashraddha Nirmoolan Kapisinsky Pavla Horova, 10 Bratislava 841 07 BULGARIA. Bulgarian Skeptics, Bulgaria. Dr. Samfti (MANS) states of Maharashtra S Goa. Slovak Republic Vladimir Daskalov. E-mail: egoshev0einet.bg. Dr. Narendra Dabholkar. Executive President. SOUTH AFRICA. Marian Laserson. P.O. Box 46212, Krakra 22 BG-1504 Sofia. Bulgaria. Tel.: 91-2162-32333; e-mail: ndabholkarOhot- Orange Grove 2119 South Africa SOCRATES. CANADA. Alberta Skeptics. Alberta. Greg Hart, mail.com. 155, Sadashiv Peth Satara 415001 South Africa. Cape Skeptics. Cape Town. Dr. Chairman. Tel.: 403-215-1440; e-mail: hartg India, www.antisuperstition.com. Indian Leon Retief. Tel.: 27-21-9131434; e-mail: Ohumaneffort.com. PO Box 5571. Station Rationalist Association, India. Sanal Edama- leonrOiafrica.com. 5N Agapanthus Avenue, •A'. Calgary. Alberta T2H 1X9 Canada. ruku. E-mail: edamarukuOvsnl.com or IRA© Welgedacht Bellville 7530 South Africa. http://abskeptics.homestead.com. Alberta rationalistinternational.net. 779. Pocket 5. SPAIN. El Investigador Esceptico. Spain. Felix Skeptics, British Columbia Skeptics. BC and Mayur Vihar 1. New Delhi 110 091 India. Ares de Bias Gamez/Ares/Martinez. P.O. Box 904. Alberta. Lee Moller. Tel. 604-929-6299; e-mail: Dravidar Kazhagam. southern India. K. Donostia-San Sebastian 20080 Spain. ARP- leemollerOshaw.ca. 1188 Beaufort Road. N. Veeramani, Secretary General. Tel.: 9144- Soo-dad para el Avance del Pensamiento Vancouver. BC V7G 1R7 Canada. Ontario 5386555; e-mail: periyarOvsnl.com. Periyar Critico ARP-SAPC Spain. Sergio Lopez. Skeptics, Ontario. Canada Eric McMillan. Thidal, 50. E.F.K. Sampath Road Vepery, Chennai Borgonoz. Tel.. 34-933-010220; e-mail: arpOarp- Chair. Tel.: 416-425-2451; e-mail: ericOwe-com- Tamil Nadu 600 007 India. www.Periyar.org. sapc.org. Apartado de Correos. 310 pute.com. P.O. Box 53003. 10 Royal Orchard Indian CSKOP. India, B. Premanand. Convenor. E-08860 Caslelldefels, Spain, www.arp-sapc.org. Blvd., Thornhill. ON L3T 7R9 Canada. Tel.: 091-0422-872423; e-mail: dayaminiOmd4. SWEDEN. Swedish Skeptics. Sweden. Dan www.astro.yorku.ca/~mmdr/oskeptics.html. vsnl.net.in. 11/7 Chettipalayam Road Podanur Larhammar, professor chairperson. Tel.: 46-18- Toronto Skeptical Inquirers (TSI) Toronto. Tamilnadu 641 023 India 4714173; e-mail: vetfolkOphysto.se. Medical Henry Gordon, President. Tel: 905-771-1615; e- ITALY. Comitato Italiano per il Controllo delle Pharmacology BMC Box 593, Uppsala 751 24 mail: henry_gordonOhotmail.com. 343 Clark Affermazioni sul Paranormale (CICAP) Italy. Sweden, www.physto.se/-vetfolk/index.html. Ave.. W.. Suite 1009, Thornhill, ON L4J 7K5 Massimo Polidoro. Executive Director. Tel.: 39- TAIWAN. Taiwan Skeptics. Taiwan. Tim Holmes. Canada. Ottawa Skeptics. Ottawa. Ontario. 049-686870. e-mail: polidoroOcicap.org. P.O. PO Box 195, Tanzu. Taiwan Perspective. Greg Singer. E-mail: skepticOottawa.com. PO Box 1117 35100 Padova. Italy, www.ckap.org. UNITED KINGDOM. The Skeptic Magazine. United Box 1237, Station B, Ottawa, Ontario KIP 5R3 JAPAN. Japan Anti-Pseudoscience Activities Net­ Kingdom. Toby Howard. E-mail: tobyOcs.man Canada.www.admissions.carleton.ca/-addalby/ work (JAPAN) Japan. Ryutarou Minakarm. chair­ ac.uk PO Box 475 Manchester M60 2TH cats/skeptic.html. Sceptiques du Quebec. person. E-mail: skepticOe-mail.ne.jp. c/o Ohta United Kingdom. Quebec. Alan Bonnier. Tel.: 514-990-8099. CP. Publishing Company. Epcot Bid, IF. 22. Arakfcho, VENEZUELA. La Asociacion Rational y Esceptka de 202, Succ. Beaubien Montreal. Quebec H2G 3C9 Shinjuku-ku Tokyo 160-8571 Japan. Japan Venezuela (A.R.E.V.). Guido David Nunez Canada, www.sceptiques.qc.ca. Skeptics Skeptics Japan. Dr. Jun Jugaku. E-mail: Mujica, 10th Street 13th av. comer. Mini ceniro Quint*. Bill Broderick. 2262 Shannon Rd. R.R. jugakujnOcc.nao.acjp. Japan Skeptics, Business comercial Oasis, Valera. Trujilio state. 1. Shannonville. ON KOK 3A0; e-mail: Center for Academic Societies. Japan 5-16-9 Honk- Venezuela. Web site: www.geocities.com/escep brodericOkos.net. omagome, Bunkyo-ku Tokyo 113-8622 Japan. tkosvenezuela. IOWA. Central Iowa Skeptics (CIS) Central Iowa. Rob Central New York Skeptics (CNY Skeptics) United States Beeston Tel. 515-285-0622; e-mail ciskepticsOhot- Syracuse. Lisa Goodlin, President Tel: 315 446-3068; mail.com. 5602 SW 2nd St. Des Moines. IA 50315 e-mail: imacshivaOsyracusenet.net 201 Milnor ALABAMA. Alabama Skeptics. Alabama Emory US. www skepticweb com. Ave.. Syracuse. NY 13224 US Kimbrough. Tel. 205-759-2624 3550 Watermelon ILLINOIS. Rational Examination Association of NORTH CAROLINA. Carolina Skeptics North Road, Apt 28A. Northport, AL 35476 US Skeptics Lincoln Land (REALL) Illinois. David Bloomberg. Carolina Eric Carlson, President Tel: 336-758-4994; Freethought Forum of Alabama Skeptics Chairman. Tel.: 217-726-5354; e-mail: chairman e-mail: ecarlsonOwfu.edu Physics Department. Freethought Forum. Richard Rich. 1801 Beech St. SE. Oreall.org PO Box 20302. Springfield, IL 62708 US. Wake Forest University. Winston-Salem. NC 27109 Decatur. AL 35601-3511 US. E-mail rrbama660hot- www.reall.org US www.carolinaskeptics.org. mail.com KENTUCKY. Kentucky Assn. of Science Educators OHIO. Central Ohioans for Rational Inquiry (CORD ARIZONA. Tucson Skeptics Inc. Tucson, AZ. James and Skeptics (KASES) Kentucky Prof. Robert Central Ohio. Charlie Hazlett. President. Tel.: 614- McGaha E-mail: JMCGAHAePimaCCPima.EDU 5100 Baker. 3495 Castleton Way, North Lexington, KY 878-2742; e-mail. charlieOhazlett.net. PO Box N. Sabino Foothills Dr.. Tucson, AZ 85715 US. 40502 US. Contact Fred Bach at e mail fredw- 282069. Columbus OH 43228 US. South Shore Phoenix Skeptics. Phoenix. AZ. Michael Stackpole, bachOyahoo.com. Skeptics (55S) Cleveland and counties Jim Kutz P.O. Box 60333. Phoenix. AZ 85082 US. LOUISIANA. Baton Rouge Proponents of Rational Tel. 440 942-5543: e-mail: jimkut2Oeanhlink.net CALIFORNIA Sacramento Organization for Rational Inquiry and Scientific Methods (BR PRISM; PO Box 5083, Cleveland, OH 44101 US www.south Thinking (SORT) Sacramento. CA Ray Spangen- Louisiana Marge Schroth Tel. 225-766-4747 425 shoreskeptics.org/ burg, co-founder. Tel: 916-978-0321; e-mail Carriage Way, Baton Rouge. LA 70808 US. Association for Rational Thought (ART) kitrayOquiknet.com. PO Box 2215, Carmichael. CA MICHIGAN. Great Lakes Skeptics (GLS) SE Michigan Cincinnati Roy Auerbach. president Tel 513-731 95609-2215 US. www.quiknet.com/-kitray/index1 Lorna J. Simmons, Contact person. Tel.: 734-525-5731; 2774, e-mail: raaOcinci rr com. PO Box 12896, html Bay Area Skeptics (BAS) Sar Francisco—Bay e-mail: Skeptic310aol.com. 31710 Cowan Road. Apt. Cincinnati, OH 45212 US. www.cincinnati skept Area Tully McCarroll Chair. Tel 415 927-1548; e- 103. Westland. Ml 48185-2366 US Tri-Cities icsorg mail: tullyannOpacbell net PO Box 2443 Castro Skeptics. Michigan. Gary Barker. Tel: 517-799-4502: OREGON. Oreoonians for Rationality (04R) Oregon Valley, CA 94546-0443 US. wwwBASkeptics.org. e-mail barkergOsvol org 3596 Butternut St., Dave Chapman, President Tel 503 292-2146. e-mail Sacramento Skeptics Society, Sacramento. Terry Saginaw. Ml 48604 US Sandbek. President 4300 Auburn Blvd Suite 206, dchapmanOiccom com 7555 Spring Valley Rd NW. Sacramento CA 95841 Tel 916 489-1774. E-mail MINNESOTA. St. Kloud Extraordinary Claim Salem. OR 97304 US www.o4r.org terryOsandbeck.com. http://my.iipchannel.com/ Psychic Teaching Investigating Community PENNSYLVANIA. Paranormal Investigating Com­ -tsandbek/Skeptics/skeptics htm San Diego Asso­ (SKEPTIC) St Cloud. Minnesota Jerry Mertens Tel mittee of Pittsburgh (PICP) Pittsburgh PA ciation for Rational Inquiry (SDARI) President 320-255-2138; e-mail: gmertensOstcloudstate Richard Busch, Chairman Tel.: 412-366-1000; e- Todd Rockhold Tel.: (Todd's personal phone) 760 edu. Jerry Mertens. Psychology Department, 720 mail mindfulOtelerama com. 8209 Thompson Run 943-8977 Web site: www.sdan.org. E-mail: 4th Ave S, St Cloud State University, St. Cloud, MN Rd.. Pittsburgh, PA 15237 US Philadelphia infoOsdari org PO Box 623. La Jolla, CA 92038-0623 56301 US. Association for Critical Thinking (PhACT), much of Pennsylvania Eri: Krieg, President. Tel 215-885- MISSOURI. Gateway Skeptics. Missouri, Steve Best. 2089; e-mail ericOohact org PO Box 1131, North COLORADO. Rocky Mountain Skeptics (RMS) Colo, 6943 Amherst Ave.. University City, MO 63130 US. Wales, PA 19454 US. www.phact org/phact Wyo. Bela Scheiber. President. Tel 303-444-7537. e- Kansas City Committee for Skeptical Inquiry. mail: rmscentralOmindspring.com PO Box 7277. Missouri. Verle Muhrer. United Labor Bldg. 6301 TENNESEE. Rationalists of East Tennessee, East Boulder, CO 80306 US. hnp://bcn. boulder Rockhill Road, Suite 412 Kansas City, MO 64131 US Tennessee. Carl Ledenbecker Tel 865-982-8687, e- eo.us/community/rms NEBRASKA. REASON (Rationalists. Empiracists mail: AletallOaol.com 2123 Stonybrook Rd., CONNECTICUT. New England Skeptical Society and Skeptics of Nebraska), Chris Peters. PO Box Louisville, TN 37777 US. (NESS) New England Steven Novella MD. President 24358, Omaha, NE 68134; e-mail: reasonOIOhot- TEXAS. North Texas Skeptics NTS Dallas/Ft Worth Tel.: 203-281-6277; e-mail boardOtieness.com. PO mail.com, Web page: www.reason.ws. area. John Blantor, Secretary Tel: 972-306-3187. Box 185526, Hamden, CT 06518-5526 US www NEVADA. Skeptics of Las Vegas, (SOLV) PO Box e-mail skepticOntskeptics org PO Box 111794. theness.com. 530392, Henderson, NV 89053-0392. E-mail: rban- Carrollton. TX 75011-1794 US www.ntskeptics org DC/MARYLAND. National Capital Area Skeptics dersonOskepticslv.org Web site: www.skepticslv. VIRGINIA. Science & Reason. Hampton Rds, Virginia NCAS. Maryland. 0.C, Virginia. D.W. "Chip- org./ Lawrence Wemsten, Old Dominion Univ -Physics Denman. Tel: 301-587-3827 e-mail: ncasOncas.org NEW MEXICO. New Mexicans for Science and Dept.. Norfolk, VA 23529 US. PO Box 8428. Silver Spring, MD 20907-8428 US Reason (NMSR) New Mexico David E. Thomas, WASHINGTON. Society for Sensible Explanations. http7Avww.ncas.org. President. Tel.: 505-869-9250; e-mail, nmsrdave Western Washington. Tad Cook. Secretary. E-mail: FLORIDA. Tampa Bay Skeptics (TBS) Tampa Bay. Oswcp.com PO Box 1017, Peralta. NM 87042 US. k7wvOarrl.net PO Box 45792. Seattle. WA 98145-0792 Florida. Gary Posner. Executive Director. Tel.: 813- www.nmsr.org. US. http://seattleskeptics.org 584-0603; e-mail: tbskep0aol.com. 5319 Archstone NEW YORK. New York Area Skeptics (NYASk) met­ Dr. «102. Tampa. FL 33634 US. http7/members ropolitan NY area Ted W. Debiak. President Tel.: The organizations listed above have aims similar to aol.com/tbskep. 516-735-8739; e-mail- infoOnyask com 57 South those of CSICOP but are independent and GEORGIA. Georgia Skeptics (G5) Georgia. Rebecca Windhorst Ave, Bethpage. NY 11714-4931 US. autonomous Representatives of these organizations Long. President. Tel.. 770 493-6857. e-mail: arlong www.nyask.com. Inquiring Skeptics of Upper cannot speak on behalf of the CSICOP Please send Ohcrc.org 2277 Winding Woods Dr.. Tucker. GA New York (I5UNY) Upper New York. Michael updates to Bela Scheiber. PO Box 4482. Boulder, CO 30084 US Sofka, 8 Providence St., Albany, NY 12203 US. 80306

SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL CONSULTANTS

George Agogino, Dept of Anthropology, Eastern New Laurie Godfrey, anthropologist University of Massachusetts Massimo Pigliucd, professor of evolutionary biology. Mexico University Gerald Gokfin, mathematician. Rutgers University, New Jersey University of Tennessee Gary Bauslaugh. educational consutant Center for Donald Goldsmith, astronomer; president Interstellar Media James Pomerantz, Provost and professor of cognitive Curncjlum, Transfer and Technology, Victoria, B.C. Canada Alan Hal*, astronomer, Southwest Institute for Space and linguistic sciences. Brown Univ. Richard E. Berendzen, astronomer, Washington, D.C Research. Alamogordo. New Mexico Gary P. Posner. MD., Tampa. Fla. Martin Bridgstock. lecturer. School of Science, Griffith Clyde F. Hen-eid, professor of biology, SUNY, Buffalo Daisie Radner. professor cf philosophy, SUNY, Buffalo University, Brisbane, Australia Terence M. Hines. professor of psychology. Pace Michael Radner, professor of philosophy, McMaster Richard Busch, magtcian/mentalist Pittsburgh, Penn. University, Pleasantville, N.Y University, Hamilton, Ontario. Canada Shawn Carlson. Society for Amateur Scientists. East Michael Hutchinson, author; SXEPTIOU. INOUHW represen­ Robert H. Romer, professor of physics, Amherst College Greenwich, Rl tative. Europe Karl Sabbagh, journalist. Richmond, Surrey, England Roger B. Culver, professor of astronomy. Colorado State Univ. Philip A. lama, assoc professor of astronomy Univ. of Virginia Robert J. Samp, assistant professor of education and Felix Ares de Bias, professor 01 computer science. William Jarvis. professor of health promotion and public medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison University of Basque, San Sebastian, Spain health, loma Linda University, School of Public Health Steven D. Schafersman, asst. professor of geology, Michael R. Dennett writer, investigator, Federal Way, I. W. Kelly, professor of psychology, University of Miami Univ., Ohio Washington Saskatchewan Bela Scheiber," systems analyst Boulder. Coio. Sid Deutsch, consultant Sarasota, Fla Richard H. Lang*. MB. Mohawk Valley Physician Health Chris Scott, statistician, London. England J. Dommanget astronomer. Royale Observatory, Plan, Schenectady. N.Y Stuart D. Scott Jr, associate professor of anthropology. Brussels. Belgium Gerald A. Larue, professor of biblical history and archae­ SUNY, Buffalo Nahum J. Duker. assistant professor of pathology. ology. University of So California. Erwin M Segal professor of psychology, SUNY, Buffalo Temple University William M. London, consumer advocate. Fort Lee. New Jersey Carla Selby, anthropologist /archaeologist Barbara Eisenstadt psychologist educator, clinician. East Rebecca Long, nuclear engineer, president of Georgia Steven N. Shore, professor and chair. Dept of PhysKs and Greenbush. N.Y Council Against Hearth Fraud. Atlanta, Ga. Astronomy, Indiana Unrv South Bend William Evans, professor of communication. Georgia Thomas R. McOonough. lecturer in engineering, Cattech. Waclaw Srybalskl, professor. McArdle Laboratory. State University and SETI Coordinator of the Planetary Society University of Wisconsin-Madison John F. Fischer, forensic analyst Orlando, Fla James E. McGaha. Major. USAF; pilot Ernest H. Taves, psychoanalyst Cambridge. Mass Robert E. Funk, anthropologist New York State Museum Joel A. Moskovntz. director of medical psychiatry, Sarah G. Thomason. professor of linguistics. University of & Science Service Calabasas Mental Hearth Services, Los Angeles Pittsburgh Eileen Gambrill, professor of social welfare. University of Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician. Univ. of Tim Trachet journalist and science writer, honorary chair­ California at Berkeley Eindhoven, the Netherlands man of SKEPP, Belgium Sylvio Garattini, director. Mario Negri Pharmacology John W. Patterson, professor of materials science and • Member, CSICOP Executive Council Institute. Milan. Italy engineering. Iowa State University •Associate Member, CSICOP Executive Council

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CHANDRA/HUBBLE SPACE X-RAY/OPTICAL COMPOS A composite image of the Crab Nebula showing the X-ray (blue), and optical (red) images superimposed. The size of the X-ray image is smaller because the higher energy X-ray emitting electrons radiate away their energy more quickly than the lower energy optically emitting electrons as they move.

Credits for X-ray Image: NASA/OGC/ASU7J. Hester et al. Credits for Optical Image: NASA/HST/ASU/J^ Hester et al.

Skeptical Inqui THE MAGAZINE FOR SCIENCE AND REASON

The Committee is a nonprofit scientific and educational organization. • The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is its official journal.

The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the such inquiries to the scientific community, the media, and the Paranormal encourages the critical investigation of paranormal public. It also promotes science and scientific inquiry, critical and fringe-science claims from a responsible, scientific point of thinking, science education, and the use of reason in examining view and disseminates factual information about the results of important issues.

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