Fluids, Heat and Mass Transfer, Mechanical and Civil Engineering Develop Trip Generation Model for Alexandria City - Egypt AHMED ELKAFOURY1,*, ABDELAZIM M. NEGM1, MOHAMED H. ALY2, MAHMOUD F. BADY3 1 Environmental Engineering Department, Egypt-Japan University of Science and Technology (E-JUST), P.O. Box 179, New Borg Al-Arab City, 21934 Alexandria, Egypt. 2 Transportation Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, University of Alexandria, 11432 Alexandria, Egypt. 3 Energy Resources Engineering Department,, Egypt-Japan University of Science and Technology (E-JUST), P.O. Box 179, New Borg Al-Arab City, 21934 Alexandria, Egypt. * Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract— This paper tends to introduce a trip generation model for Alexandria city-Egypt. This model can be implemented in the transportation planning process of the city since the city suffers from harsh transportation and travel problems. The model relates daily exchanged numbers (Q and Z) of trips at different Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZs) to its socio-economic data. Analysis of socio-economic and demographic data of different TAZs has been performed. Zonal data has been involved in Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) technique. Investigate attributes affect each of trip generation and trip attraction, the significant level of individual socio-economic variables for Q and Z has been statistically evaluated. Statistical indicators have been used to assess and verify the performance of the developed trip generation models. The model shows good performance since the models introduced acceptable CR values of 0.55 for Q model and higher value of 0.72 for Z model, NMSE 0.39 and 0.11 for Q and Z models respectively, and MG of 0.73 and 0.85 respectively. Key-Words—Alexandria, Socio-economic data, Transportation planning, Trip generation model, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) daily trips is a function of set of independent variables. This method can be applied to any situation since the data is 1. Introduction Thanks to the rapid increase in population numbers and regression analysis provided [4]. associated economic growth, the travel demand in urban areas Alexandria city, second largest city in Egypt after Cairo, is explicitly increasing. Under the umbrella of sustainable and with its 32 km along the coast of Mediterranean, it holds two environmental urban development planning, the role of the major Egyptian seaports named Alexandria seaport and El transportation planner is to manage and introduce different Dekhela seaport which handles about 80% of the Egyptian transportation policies to give urban authorities the tool to import and export movements. It has suffered from severe cape with this increase in travel demand. This is performed transportation problems. The review showed little number of through modeling the transportation behavior and the research papers and studies related to transportation system transportation system to infer the problem key issues. And analysis of the city. The objective of this research is to consequently, proposing different tested alternatives to relieve develop a trip generation (production / attraction) model for these problems daily trips in Alexandria city. First, the zoning system of the In the four-stage prediction method, trip generation city has been introduced. On Transportation Analysis Zone predictions are the first step of the traffic demand prediction (TAZ) level, socio-economic, demographic, and trip process in the traditional four stage prediction method. It interchange data has been canalized. Multiple linear predicts the number of trips originating in or destined for a Regression (MLR) technique has been incorporated to develop particular traffic analysis zone. Every trip has two ends - trips the trip generation models. Finally, performance of the models origin zone and trips destine zone [1]. The reliability of has been statistically analyzed. This model helps mainly in the forecasting results influences the following steps such as trip urban transportation planning process of the city. distribution, mode split, and traffic assignment. Therefore, 2. Alexandria city transportation zoning improved trip generation models are needed to improve system forecasting precision [2]. To analyze the transportation and traffic situation in the From the transport demand perspective, the users’ most study area, there should be a proper splitting of the area into relevant characteristic is their socioeconomic level [3]. One of traffic analysis zones (TAZ). TAZs are the way to inventories the widely used of these methods makes use of regression the socio-economic, transportation systems, and traffic-related analysis using data collected in travel survey. The number of data of the study area on a geographical scale, aiming to ISBN: 978-1-61804-358-0 153 Fluids, Heat and Mass Transfer, Mechanical and Civil Engineering divide a large set of region information into a number of have an explicit influence on the daily trip production rates. spatially contiguous regions [5]. For Alexandria city as the This is because those two categories represent the student and study area in this research, the system invoked coincide with the employees respectively. the administrative division (zones) of Alexandria city. This As shown in Fig. 1, on the districts scale, a reflection of the means that there are 13 TAZs for Alexandria city. They are, El same age categories trends for the whole city is noticed. Only Monatza, El Raml, Sidi Gaber, Moharam Bek, Bab Sharq, El El Amria district breaks this role as only 16% of its population Atarin, El Manshia, El Gomrok, El Laban, Mina El Basal, is between 35 to 60 years old and about 17% of population is Karmoz, El Dekhela, and El Amria. The selection of this between 25 to 35 years old. This can be accounted for that this transportation zoning system is to ensure accurate data district is an industrial and hand working area in which these providence since the socio-economic and travel demand data age categories are the power for that type of work. provided is at the nexus of the administrative division scale. 3.3 Income Levels The investigation of income level data of population reflects 3. Analysis of socio-economic and its implication on the quality of life. Usually, as the income demographic data level increases, the trip production rates increase in the sequel. This section analysis the socio-economic characteristics for Old TAZs of Alexandria which have high density population Alexandria city's 13 TAZs in year 2006 Based on data including Moharam Bek, El Manshia, Karmoz, El Laban provided from [6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11]. besides Mina El Basal zones, are the settle of high proportion of low income households. About 35%, 29%, 64%, 35%, and 3.1 Population 40% of population in those zones respectively represents low In year 2006, Alexandria city holds about 4 million income satisfaction. The biggest portion of population among inhabitants representing 5.6% of total population number of all Alexandria city zones that reported high income level is in Egypt. the analysis of population characteristics in Alexandria Sidi Gaber. In which about 81% of population have high city zones (Table 2) indicates that the most populous zone is income level. Also, big portion of families reside the low El Monatza which holds 1,173,803 inhabitants representing population densities zones (Bab Sharq, El Dekhela, and El % of total population in the city. In the second rank, El Monatza) reports high income level. See Fig. 2. Raml zone holds 19% of the total city population (752,371 inhabitants). The least number of populations among all zones 3.4 Illiterate levels exists in El Manshia which holds only 1% of the city The illiterate levels in Alexandria city districts increases in population (23,616 inhabitants). This can be explained as this western districts than eastern districts. This is clear in Figure 5 zone is a trading zone and did not hold many residential which illustrates the illiterate levels in population with ages buildings. between 15 to 45 years old in different districts for year 2006. As an indicator, high population density areas increase the This reveals the relation between portions of population of low cost of urban transport systems, but for example less for the income level in the district and the illiterate levels. implementation of rail system than other modes [12]. A look on the population density (person/km2) all over the city zones of the zones indicates relatively high gross population density (The number of people inhabiting an urban area / total area of urban land) and residential population density (The number of people living in an urban area divided by the area of residential land). For the whole city, the average gross population density and residential population density are 25,706 (persons/km2) and 125,644 (persons/km2) in order. Old zones including Moharam Bek, El Manshia, Karmoz, El Laban are indicated as high density population zones as these are the origin place of Alexandrian inhabitants of the city. All over Alexandria city, the average annual percentage increase in population numbers is 1.6%. This rate is less than Fig. 1 Distribution of population of different districts among different the yearly national rate of increase in population in the same age groups in year 2006. time period which is 2.05%. In El Montaza districts, which contain only 7.42% of the population with low income level, the illiterate level is the 3.2 Age Characteristics smallest among all districts. As the low income portion of The trip production rates distinguish for different age population increases in western districts, the illiterate level categories. For Alexandria city, the majority of the population increases to reach its peak in El Amria district. In which, the (42%) in year 2006 is less than 15 years old. The second illiterate level is about 22% of population with ages between dominating age category in the city is the population who has 15 to 45 years.