University of Kentucky UKnowledge Political History History 1985 The Mood/Interest Theory of American Foreign Policy Jack E. Holmes Hope College Click here to let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Thanks to the University of Kentucky Libraries and the University Press of Kentucky, this book is freely available to current faculty, students, and staff at the University of Kentucky. Find other University of Kentucky Books at uknowledge.uky.edu/upk. For more information, please contact UKnowledge at [email protected]. Recommended Citation Holmes, Jack E., "The Mood/Interest Theory of American Foreign Policy" (1985). Political History. 16. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/upk_political_history/16 The Mood/ Interest Theory of American Foreign Policy This page intentionally left blank The Theory of American Foreign Policy JACK E. HOLMES With a Foreword by Frank L. Klingberg THE UNIVERSITY PRESS OF KENTUCKY Publication of this book has been aided by a grant from Hope College. Copyright O 1985 by The University Press of Kentucky Scholarly publisher for the Commonwealth, sewing Bellmine College, Berea College, Centre College of Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky University, The Filson Club, Georgetown College, Kentucky Historical Society, Kentucky State University, Morehead State University, Murray State University, Northern Kentucky University, Transylvania University, University of Kentucky, University of Louisville, and Western Kentucky University. Editorial Wces: Lexington, Kentucky 40506-0024 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Holmes, Jack E. The moodlinterest theory of American foreign policy. Bibliography: p. Includes index. 1. United States-Foreign relations. 2. United States -Foreign relationsPublic opinio-History. 3. Public opinio-United States-History. 4.United States-History-Philosophy. I. 'Title. E183.7.H65 1985 327.73 84-25679 ISBN 0-8131-1533-7 To Professors Frank L. Klingberg and Robert E. Elder, Jr., and my students at Hope College who provided the encouragement and suggestions to express my thoughts in written form. This page intentionally left blank Contents List of Figures Foreword by Frank L. Klingberg Preface Introduction 1. Liberalism, Moods, and American Foreign Policy 2. Alternate Methodologies and Foreign Policy Concepts 3. American Foreign Policy Interests: Their Moody Relation to Policy 4. MoodJInterest Pluralism 5. American Introversion 6. Conclusion Tables Notes Bibliographical Essay Index This page intentionally left blank Figures 1 American Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Parameters 3 2 The American Liberal Mood Curve 4 3 United States Politico-Military Interests 5 4 The MoodlInterest Conflict (abbreviated) 7 5 Fluctuating Average Power Divergence Scores and the Mood/Interest Curve 43 6 The MoodlInterest Conflict 76 7 Support for Increased Defense Spending, 1935- 1982 145 This page intentionally left blank Foreword In this book, Jack E. Holmes has made a major contribution to the understand- ing of American foreign policy, by developing his mood/interest theory and relating it to other major approaches. His analysis helps Americans to under- stand themselves and other nations to understand America. American foreign policy has often seemed to be unpredictable and unde- pendable, especially to observers overseas. The American system has some- times been regarded as fickle, with sudden changes of policy. Often given is the example of President Woodrow Wilson's role as the chief architect of the League of Nations, followed quickly by the league's repudiation in the Senate in 1919. A common theory in the inter-World War period was that the United States was traditionally and powerfully isolationist, so that World War I appeared to be an aberration. After World War 11, it could be argued either that this second war could prove to be only another aberration, or that the American people had been forced by the war to drop political-military introversion (or isolationism) forever. My 1947 study of American diplomatic history showed that not only had the United States become deeply involved in world affairs from about 1893 to 1919 and then "isolationist" from 1919 to 1940, but that such an alternation had occurred ever since 1776. When this theory was published in 1952, it was applied to the future to suggest that the American people would support a strong extrovert policy at least until the late 1960s, when they would be likely to revert again to a relative introversion (a leveling-off of political-military involvement). The theory was little noticed until 1967-1969, when it looked as if the predicted introversion was coming to pass. The State Department, some colum- nists, and some scholars discussed the idea in relation to the growing reaction against "Vietnam. " Holmes began work on the theory in 1969 and continued to develop and apply it in many ways, while presenting many professional papers on it. The present book is a most fruitful result of his research, as he took the mood theory and developed it into his "liberal mood/interestWtheory. Holmes helps explain the fairly regular alternation of long-time foreign policy moods by positing America's basic liberal stance (whether "reform" liberal or "business" liberal) as the steady motivating force in inducing mood shifts. Since liberals tend to dislike the exercise of concentrated power, es- xii Foreword pecially military, except when a crusading spirit takes hold, there is a fundamen- tal conflict between the liberal moods and America's political-military interests (which require the use of some degree of power). A new mood may originate with political leadership, Holmes writes, but once it is grasped by the people, it is they who dictate its continuation. In an introvert mood, one generation of Americans will underestimate the political- military factor until the security of the country appears to be endangered, inducing a shift to extroversion. In an extrovert mood, the next generation may stress the political-military factor so much as to finally violate America's liberal norms. %us, Dr. Holmes supports basic democratic pluralist theory, believing that the mass public has commendable intelligence, even though it may be lacking knowledge, and that it sets the parameters within which political leaders must act. He avers that the impact of public moods on foreign policy has been insufficiently identified and analyzed, since perhaps most scholars have sup- ported an "elitist" view of the determination of policy. At the very least, the public chooses which of the competing elites it desires to place in power. In Chapter 2, Professors Holmes and Robert E. Elder, Jr., evaluate and compare a number of behavioral or statistical studies to show that they lend general support to the theory. Then, in addition to analyzing the "elitist" approach, Dr. Holmes demonstrates how the "liberal mood/interest" theory of alternation tends to dominate or explain the application of other common theories, including pragmatism, moralism, conservatism, fortunate circum- stances and modem technology, and the recurrence of certain types of "events. " After applying the theory to America's whole historical development since 1776 in Chapter 3, the author similarly clarifies United States policy in the six major regions of the world, enabling him to discuss America's current problems in all of them, including the role of nuclear weapons. In Chapter 4, there is a full analysis of the impact of the theory on the formulation of foreign policy by the United States government, as affected by pressure groups, business, the press, and the general public. Evidence is presented to show that the presidency has been strong during extrovert phases, while the influence of Congress and pressure groups has increased in introvert phases. The president indicates direction and is informed by the federal bu- reaucracy, but is normally guided by the public mood, particularly as delineated in the press. There is a good discussion of the "military-industrial complex," showing that its influence depends largely on the public mood. The author notes that the general American liberal spirit rather consistently supports economic and humanitarian activity on the world scene, so that only political-military actions are normally subject to the alternations of moods. With a full analysis of the current dominant mood of introversion, charac- terized in part by a lack of basic consensus, the book is up-to-date and projects Foreword xiii the theory onto the future, noting the possibility that America could again allow introversion to endanger its political-military interests in the world, and lead toward a major crisis. For example, other powers could try to take advantage of this introvert mood just when a new spirit of American extroversion would be ready to respond. The next mood of extroversion can be expected by the late 1980s, if the historical pattern continues. Dr. Holmes sees a particular danger in the tendency of each of the alternating foreign policy moods to move to extremes and suggests ways in which these extremes might be prevented or minimized. Modem weapons of destruction, he writes, cannot be combined with the past degree of mood extremes. Educators have a special opportunity and responsibility, he believes, to help explain America's historical foreign policy in terms of these alternating moods, to prepare students and the public for coming shifts, and to try to develop a broader understanding of America's interests which could reduce these extremes and perhaps even help "break the pattern." The author also points out areas where further research would be helpful, such as in studying elitelmass interaction, the role of competing elites, legislative-executive com- petition in the light of the mood/interest theory, and the like. The book is well-written and convincing, with a balanced and fair point of view. A large number of American foreign policy studies are used and logically analyzed. This fresh and broad perspective and the coverage of all the basic topics affecting American foreign policy make the book suitable indeed for use as fascinating text or for general reading by students, policy makers, and the interested public.