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Kaliningrad and Baltic Security CORE Metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk Provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2001-06 Kaliningrad and Baltic security Collins, Arthur Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/2695 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS KALININGRAD AND BALTIC SECURITY by Arthur Collins III June 2001 Thesis Advisor: Mikhail Tsypkin Co-Advisor: Rodney Kennedy-Minott Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2001 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: Kaliningrad and Baltic Security 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S): Collins III, Arthur 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING / MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast (Region) has a history of being terra incognita. In defiance of geographic and historical realities, the Allied leaders of World War II carved the oblast from the northern third of East Prussia and awarded it to Stalin’s Soviet Union. As the Soviet empire disintegrated around it, Kaliningrad became lost in the shuffle of a new world order. Its very existence as a Russian exclave within an increasingly interdependent Europe brings the Oblast to the forefront of the Baltic region’s future. Kaliningrad plays an important part in the wider pan-European context of regional security and regional stability. Using a traditional state-centric paradigm of definitive interstate borders makes the Kaliningrad riddle impossible to solve. By shifting the paradigm toward regional development and regional cooperation to address common problems, the future security relationship of the Baltic littoral becomes more optimistic. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF International Relations, European Security, Security Dilemma, Regional Security, Baltic Sea Region, PAGES Kaliningrad, Russia. 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF REPORT CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT PAGE OF ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited KALININGRAD AND BALTIC SECURITY Arthur Collins III Major, United States Marine Corps B.S., Marquette University, 1987 M.S., Troy State University, 1992 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2001 Author: ___________________________________________ Arthur Collins III Approved by: ___________________________________________ Mikhail Tsypkin, Thesis Advisor ___________________________________________ Rodney Kennedy-Minott, Thesis Co-Advisor ___________________________________________ James Wirtz, Chairman Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast (Region) has a history of being terra incognita. In defiance of geographic and historical realities, the Allied leaders of World War II carved the oblast from the northern third of East Prussia and awarded it to Stalin’s Soviet Union. As the Soviet empire disintegrated around it, Kaliningrad became lost in the shuffle of a new world order. Its very existence as a Russian exclave within an increasingly interdependent Europe brings the Oblast to the forefront of the Baltic region’s future. Kaliningrad plays an important part in the wider pan-European context of regional security and regional stability. Using a traditional state-centric paradigm of definitive interstate borders makes the Kaliningrad riddle impossible to solve. By shifting the paradigm toward regional development and regional cooperation to address common problems, the future security relationship of the Baltic littoral becomes more optimistic. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 A. THESIS ............................................................................................................ 1 B. BACKGROUND.............................................................................................. 1 C. FROM KÖNIGSBERG TO KALININGRAD ............................................. 3 1. World War I ......................................................................................... 3 2. World War II........................................................................................ 5 3. “Sovietization”...................................................................................... 9 4. Post-Soviet Kaliningrad..................................................................... 10 D. FROM FORTRESS TO GARRISON ......................................................... 12 II. REGIONAL SECURITY ......................................................................................... 19 A. HARD SECURITY ....................................................................................... 19 1. NATO’s Open Door ........................................................................... 19 2. NATO and Kaliningrad..................................................................... 21 3. Rational or Irrational Fears?............................................................ 29 B. SOFT SECURITY......................................................................................... 31 1. Environment ....................................................................................... 33 2. Organized Crime................................................................................ 34 3. Public Health ...................................................................................... 36 III. REGIONAL STABILITY....................................................................................... 41 A. SECURITY THROUGH STABILITY........................................................ 41 B. SOURCES OF INSTABILITY .................................................................... 41 1. Social and Political ............................................................................. 41 2. Economic............................................................................................. 47 C. OBSTACLES AND OPPORTUNITIES ..................................................... 55 1. Russia’s Center-Region Relationship............................................... 55 2. Fear of Separatism ............................................................................. 56 3. Two Faces of the European Union.................................................... 59 IV. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................ 63 WORKS CITED.............................................................................................................. 67 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST .................................................................................. 71 vii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Kaliningrad ......................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2. Effect of soft security threats on Europe .......................................................... 32 Figure 3. Perception of Russia as a Military Threat in Northern Europe......................... 42 ix THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK x LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Changes in Kaliningrad’s Military Strength ...................................................... 14 Table 2. Force Comparisons Among Selected Baltic Nations......................................... 16 Table 3. Kaliningrad’s Economic Program Failures........................................................ 49 Table 4. Foreign Direct Investment as a Measure of Competitiveness............................ 50 Table 5. Import/Export Figures for Kaliningrad, Poland, and Lithuania (1997) ............. 52 Table 6. Technical Assistance in Kaliningrad 1991-1999 ............................................... 61 xi THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
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