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Tesis 2015 Version 97 Vale UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES Departamento de Historia e Instituciones Económicas I TESIS DOCTORAL Fundamentos teóricos de la controversia entre Hayek y Keynes. Dos visiones acerca del orden económico y la historia MEMORIA PARA OPTAR AL GRADO DE DOCTOR PRESENTADA POR Pablo Losoviz Adaui Director Fernando Méndez Ibisate Madrid, 2017 © Pablo Losoviz Adaui, 2015 UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES DEPARTAMENTO DE HISTORIA E INSTITUCIONES ECONÓMICAS I FUNDAMENTOS TEÓRICOS DE LA CONTROVERSIA ENTRE HAYEK Y KEYNES. DOS VISIONES ACERCA DEL ORDEN ECONÓMICO Y LA HISTORIA. TESIS DOCTORAL DE: PABLO LOSOVIZ ADAUI DIRIGIDA POR: FERNANDO MÉNDEZ IBISATE MADRID, 2015 © Pablo Losoviz Adaui, 2015. Agradecimientos y dedicatorias. En primer lugar deseo agradecer a mi tutor de Tesis, D. Fernando Méndez Ibisate, el cual al plantearle que deseaba realizar una investigación sobre el ciclo económico me sugirió que profundizara sobre el debate sostenido entre F. A. Hayek y J. M. Keynes. Sin duda que el provecho que he obtenido a lo largo de estos años de investigación abarca mucho más que simplemente el fenómeno del ciclo y solo espero que, aunque sea en cierta medida, en este trabajo de investigación haya quedado reflejado. En varios de los puntos de esta tesis sin mencionar explícitamente el problema de las crisis y fluctuaciones económicas el lector podrá observar sugerencias sobre el mismo de suma importancia. Realmente lo que se ha intentado es situar el debate entre Hayek y Keynes dentro de la órbita de la historia del pensamiento económico y en particular sobre la percepción filosófica y metodológica que juega la concepción de la Historia en ambos. Ante este desafío que me he planteado es necesario reconocer el esfuerzo de mi tutor en la revisión, diversas correcciones e indicaciones que fue realizando a lo largo de estos años de investigación. Deseo agradecer también a la Universidad Complutense, y de forma especial a la Facultad de CC. Económicas, así como a su personal con especial mención a la Biblioteca de dicha Facultad por sus excelentes medios materiales y recursos bibliográficos sin los cuales llevar a cabo la presente investigación hubiese sido una utopía. Dicho reconocimiento también es extensible al Ludwig von Mises Institute (Mises.org ) que ofrece de forma abierta una diversidad de literatura económica de valor incalculable. Al profesor Antonio Torrero Mañas que ha tenido la amabilidad de recibirme en su domicilio, gracias a la mediación de J. Monzón, realizando agudas observaciones y regalándome un ejemplar de su libro: La obra de John Maynard Keynes y su visión del mundo financiero (1998) ampliamente citado en el presente trabajo. Del mismo modo, agradecer a Axel Kicillof quien sin dudarlo al pedírselo, en un breve encuentro en Buenos Aires, me envió una copia de la adaptación de su tesis doctoral: La Teoría II General: crítica de la ortodoxia marginalista y keynesiana (2005). Ambas obras han resultado ser útiles e inspiradoras para la presente investigación. Asimismo, me gustaría dedicar el presente trabajo a mis profesores y compañeros de la Universidad de Buenos Aires. En particular al doctor Pablo Levín que desde el momento en que se cruzó en mi camino en la universidad, ésta dejó de ser una carrera de obstáculos para convertirse en una verdadera fuente de sabiduría y placer. Imposible me será olvidar que en el primer curso que le tuve como maestro sobre Dinero, Créditos y Bancos, una vez entregadas las notas finales, aproximadamente una tercera parte de los alumnos de dicho curso le pidió mantener las clases al menos un mes más durante el verano con la única finalidad de aprender y disfrutar más de su profundo conocimiento de la economía clásica. El centro que actualmente dirige dentro de la Universidad de Buenos Aires el CEPLAD ha tenido la delicadeza de dejarme exponer hace algunos años una versión preliminar del presente estudio y del cual espero haber sabido aprovechar las distintas sugerencias e impresiones que allí surgieron. En concreto, me viene a la memoria el llamativo paralelismo realizado por Leandro Haberfeld entre el debate que aquí se analiza y el implícito entre Adam Smith y los Fisiócratas. No menos importantes fueron las ideas y sugerencias en el mismo de Sergio Chesler, Ariel Abelar, Ricardo Ares, José A. Beckishtein, Hernan Hirsch, Eduardo Rodríguez y Jose Mª Segura, por destacar a alguno de ellos. Este reconocimiento a la Universidad de Buenos Aires no sería completo sin mencionar a una de sus figuras más insignes como es el Doctor Julio H. Olivera que, pese a lo intrincado y complejas matemáticamente que eran las materias que recuerdo dictaba en aquel momento, siempre nos enseñó que en definitiva aquellas abstracciones eran algo simple frente a todo lo que implica intentar conocer la infinita realidad. También quiero reconocer la ayuda prestada por Ángel Luis Blanco Vicente y su equipo (Charo y Petri) en las impresiones preliminares de la presente Tesis. Por último, deseo agradecer y dedicarlo a mi familia. A mis padres que siempre se interesaron y creo que por tanto influyeron en mi interés por la realidad política y económica del pasado y el presente. A Alejandra Bize y a mis hermanas, Laura y Lucia, que han revisado y corregido el abstract en inglés y castellano. A mi prima Valeria III Losoviz que ha hecho lo posible por darle una mejor imagen a la presentación de la tesis. A mis hijos: Nicolás, Mateo y Darío, que aunque sin tener claro si pese a ellos o gracias a ellos he podido llevar a cabo esta investigación, sí tengo muy claro que sin ellos cualquier logro carece de sentido. Y a mi mujer, Amor, quien no solo me ha apoyado supliendo el tiempo que no he podido dedicar a la familia sino que ha sido una cuidadosa y escrupulosa revisora de todo lo que aquí está escrito. De más está decir que cualquier error u omisión pertenecen en exclusiva al autor del presente trabajo. IV Índice Abstract. .............................................................................................................................. 4 Abstract (English). ................................................................................................................ 9 Introducción General. ........................................................................................................ 14 Parte I | Fundamentos analíticos y teóricos de la disputa económica entre Hayek y Keynes en la Historia del Pensamiento Económico. ............................................................................. 26 Capítulo 1 | Introducción acerca de los principios y las leyes generales. ................................ 27 Capítulo 2 | El movimiento de los precios en Keynes y Hayek. Orden espontáneo vs. Orden deliberado. ........................................................................................................................ 32 Capítulo 3 | La revisión marginalista: la vertiente austríaca................................................... 37 3.1 El legado clásico y sus defectos. .................................................................................... 38 3.2 La crítica austriaca a la teoría del valor clásica. ............................................................. 43 3.3 Conclusión sobre el legado clásico, marginalista y austriaco en Hayek. ....................... 46 Capítulo 4 | El análisis de agregados y la teoría monetaria. ................................................... 47 4.1. Nociones preclásicas y clásicas sobre efectos amplificadores, multiplicadores y la conexión con la teoría monetaria. .................................................................................. 48 4.2. Conclusiones .................................................................................................................... 56 Capítulo 5 | Marshall y Cambridge: evolución de la teoría sobre el dinero, el ciclo del crédito y la inflexibilidad de precios. .................................................................................................. 58 5.1. Alfred Marshall: dilucidaciones sobre la teoría del valor clásica y marginalista. ........... 59 5.2. Alfred Marshall: aportaciones a la teoría monetaria. .................................................... 61 5.3. Marshall, Cambridge y la inflexibilidad de precios. ........................................................ 67 5.4. Conclusiones sobre las aportaciones de Marshall (Escuela de Cambridge) e influencia en el debate entre Hayek y Keynes. ................................................................................ 72 Capítulo 6 | El problema del ahorro y la naturaleza del capital. ............................................. 75 1 6.1 La “virtud” del ahorro. .................................................................................................... 79 6.2 Conclusiones sobre la teoría del capital. ........................................................................ 84 Capítulo 7 | Dilucidaciones en torno a la Ley de Say. ............................................................ 86 7.1 Antecedentes sobre el debate. ...................................................................................... 87 7.2. La Ley de Say frente a las teorías del subconsumo. ....................................................... 93 7.3. Conclusión respecto a las aclaraciones de la Ley de Say. ............................................. 104 Capítulo 8 | La Ley de Say y el debate en torno al paro involuntario. ..................................
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