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The Howey Political Report Is Published by Newslink What Hasn’T Happened Is Something That Democrats Inc Thursday, Oct. 17, 2002 ! Volume 9, Number 12 Page 1 of 9 Snipers, war keep The economy off Page 1 Howey !""#$%&#'("&%')"*)%&*%+',$-.'#%)/&$-0 By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis Snipers and war. That’s been the two-issue rotation on CNN this past Political week. In conversations with regular Hoosier folk, ditto. People are still debating the merits of invading Iraq and the consequences of either following through or not doing so. As Report for the terror of a Washington area marksmen, the fear is that some local lunatic is taking notes and will start aiming here. The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink What hasn’t happened is something that Democrats Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is such as U.S. Rep. Julia Carson, Jill Long Thompson, Melina an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the Fox and Bryan Hartke were hoping for: the 2002 election to political process in Indiana. be turned on pocketbook issues. Brian A. Howey, publisher Folks are not talking about the economy. Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer In fact, they aren’t even thinking much about the elec- Jack E. Howey, editor tion. House Speaker John Gregg observed, “I’m 48 and have been involved with politics since age 10. NOBODY is talk- The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 ing about this election. There is no interest.” PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-968-0487 Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 Gregg probed for the reasons. “There is no stability and what is there to believe in. President Clinton causes the [email protected] www.howeypolitics.com office of the presidency to lose esteem ... the Sept. 11 attack ... the corporate accounting scandal ... Wall Street col- Washington office: 202-775-3242; lapses ... the Catholic church under seige ... war resolution Business Office: 317-254-0535. passes Congress. Now, I know why people aren’t thinking Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or about the election. They are demoralized.” fax; $450 annually including the HPR Daily Republican Party Executive Director Luke Messer Wire. Call 317-254-1533 or 254-0535. observed, “This is about as unpredictable an environment as © 2002, The Howey Political Report. All rights you’re ever going to get. There is that possibility of a record reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or low turnout.” His Democratic counterpart, Tim Henderson, reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- agreed. “It is very strange,” Henderson said. Messer pointed tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without to the 1998 Republican primary in the 10th CD, where Gary consent of the publisher. Hofmeister upset Virginia Blankenbaker when only 14 per- “They always try to pick off a Dixiecrat. NOT Ticker: Bush coming back to 2nd? p. 2 IN MY BACKYARD.” War: Ambassador Coats’s fine line p. 4 2004 Governor: A Coats candidacy p. 5 - House Speaker John Gregg, on the Horse Race: Fernandez-Rokita fires up; prospects of a GOP pickup of his old House seat, Atterholt on TV; Rep. Elvis? p. 8 in an e-mail to HPR Columnists: Colwell, Fish, Fineman p. 9 Thursday, Oct. 17, 2002 Page 2 of 9 HPR EXCLUSIVE: Informed and reliable Congressional sources tell HPR that President Bush is expected to make a return visit to the 2nd CD to campaign for Repubican Chris Chocola prior to the Nov. 5 election. Bush stumped for Chocola in South Bend on Sept. 5, but Chocola has never sur- passed Democrat Jill Long Thompson in the polls. REPUBLICAN AGREES NAFTA COSTS JOBS: State Rep. Tiny Adams, D-Muncie, cent turned out. “Gary turned out his base current climate, it will be interesting to blames the North American for that election. If it had been a 30-per- see if the Republicans can hold up under Free Trade Agreement for cent turnout, he probably wouldn’t have the current economic conditions (unless, the loss of jobs and popula- won,” Messer said. of course, the recent market rally contin- tion in East Central Indiana. ues). On paper, there's no way they should "I hate to say Tiny is right Chuck Todd, writing today for the about anything, but I have National Journal, noted, “Polls aren't survive, and yet, thanks to President to agree with him on that," showing that voters plan to take out their Bush's high approval ratings buoying Republican challenger Tom anxiety on one party over the other. But overall opinions of the GOP, polls aren't Bennington said (Seth they will -- history shows they always do. showing that voters plan to take out their Slabaugh, Muncie Star On paper, things couldn't be more even anxiety on one party over the other.” Press). Adams and fellow right now, but we're getting this nagging Democratic incumbents feeling that things will move in one direc- Sen. Allie Craycraft of Dow flops and flips Selma and Rep. Ron Liggett tion -- that this tied environment will shift A week after Rep. Carson made a of Redkey primarily blame ever-so-slightly in favor of one party. national appeal for people to vote their the trend on NAFTA, the Just look at recent history. One party has pocketbook, the bombing in Bali along 1994 agreement between clearly won the last three weeks in each of with assaults on U.S. Marines in Kuwait Canada, the United States the last four cycles. And that three-week and a French oil tanker presented the and Mexico to create the victory completely changed the dynamics dynamic of the hated Al Qaeda playing world's largest free-trade of what smart folks were thinking.” area. Since then, jobs have right into President Bush’s wheelhouse. been moved to Canada and Todd noted that in 1994 and 1996, This morning, it was the revelation that Mexico from ABB Power the last three weeks of those elections saw North Korea may have nukes and possible T&D, Muncie; Berne things break toward Congressional Al Qaeda snipers in DC. Those events Apparel, Portland; Borg Republicans. In 1998, there was a voter underscored national security concerns. Warner Automotive, Muncie; backlash against the Big Lewinsky and CNN and Los Angeles Times political ana- Delco Remy, Anderson; Democrats averted a final Clinton mid- lyst Ron Brownstein opined that the Bali Flex-O-Lite, Elwood; term bloodbath. “The bottom line is that bombing actually underscored concerns of Grayson Enterprises, Eaton; Jay Garment, Portland, and elections always break late, and there is figures like Carson that invading Iraq little evidence right now that 2002 will be meant taking the eye off the Al Qaeda Continued on page 3 any different,” Todd noted. “As for the ball. But he acknowledged the “cross-cur- Page 3 of 9 Thursday, Oct. 17, 2002 rents” over basic security. “It’s put the skin” shooter might suggest a foreigner. focus back on security,” Brownstein said. In the highly contested 2nd CD, The polls aren’t showing blame being Republican Chris Chocola told HPR this heaped on Republicans. “With three morning that the Grissom AFB closure weeks to go, the clock is ticking for and the F-16 wing tug of war between Democrats,” he said. Reps. Buyer and Long (it ended up in Fort Indiana political analyst Peter Wayne) is playing big in the southern part other Hoosier cities and Rusthoven maintains there is a distinct of the district. “That will drive votes,” towns. difference between the Dow dipping into Chocola predicted, in a race with an the 7,500 range as opposed to President expected 35 percent turnout. KARL, WILLIAMS TO HEAD- George H.W. Bush’s detachment from A Christian Science Monitor Poll LINE BULEN SYMPOSIUM: Two Pulitzer-Prize winners grocery store scanners during the 1992 released Tuesday revealed President in Haynes Johnson and recession and the 1982 job/oil crisis. Bush’s approval rating was a 63 percent; Juan Williams, CNN’s “We’re not seeing long unemployment the economic optimism index for October Capitol Hill correspondent lines,” Rusthoven said. stood at 53.4 percent, while 46 percent Jonathan Karl,and the While Democratic congressional thought it was “very important” to take on Chicago Tribune’s national leaders Dick Gephardt and Tom Daschel Saddam and another 29 percent said it political correspondent Jeff were intent on rushing the Iraqi war reso- was “somewhat important.” Zeleny, will headline the 5th lution through Congress, what has not Annual Bulen Symposium happened since is a snap-back into pock- on Monday, Nov. 25, at A Horrible Turnout IUPUI’s University Place. etbook concerns. While Messer reports that Indiana Others on the bill are Frank The GOP is sensing that. White Republicans have $4.6 million in receipts Donatelli; David Wilhelm, House pollster Matthew Dowd sent a to date (compared to $3.19 million for the former chairman of the memo to Republican candidates nation- entire 1998 cycle), and the national GOP Democratic National wide. “The public's desire, in spite of the holding a 2-to-1 money edge, fears on the Committee and director of Democrats’ best efforts to the contrary, is Democratic side are beginning to surface. the 1992 Clinton-Gore cam- paign; Bob Bauer of the to not fix political blame for the econo- Indiana Democrats will report about $3 my.,” Dowd’s memo said. “Thus far, the Washington, D.C., consult- million for the year, according to political ing firm PerkinsCoie, an public hasn't heard a single positive mes- director Tim Henderson. expert on campaign finance sage from Democrats on this issue. Since Chris Chocola is inching closer to and ethics laws; Peter Democrats do not have the voters' over- Jill Long Thompson in the 2nd CD and Manous, chairman of the whelming trust on the economy and have top political operative Terry Holt has Indiana Democratic Party; no real solutions from their leaders, the arrived on the scene.
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