The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: a Decision-Support Tool to Assess Water Availability at Ungaged Stream Locations in Massachusetts 72° 70°
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Prepared in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to assess water availability at ungaged stream locations in Massachusetts 72° 70° MAINE WBWA SOU1 (011085800) (01089000) EXPLANATION WARN SAXT Estimated Pearson r correlation (01154000) COLD BEAR (01086000) (01155000) (01154000) OYST coefficient with the logarithm of daily NEW (01073000) 43° SBPI streamflows at the U.S. Geological YORK (01091000) Survey streamflow-gaging station VERMONT NEW 01174900, Cadwell Creek near HAMPSHIRE Belchertown, MA (CADW) CONT STON BBNH 495 (01082000) (01093800) (010965852) 0.70 – 0.75 0.85 – 0.90 GREW EMEA 0.75 – 0.80 0.90 – 0.95 (01333000) NBHO TARB (01100700) GREC 0.80 – 0.85 0.95 – 1.0 (01332000) (01170100) PRIE (01161500) (01162500) NORT SQUA State boundary (01169000) MOSS (01096000) DRYB (01165500) Interstate highway (01331400) SOUT HOPM MASSACHUSETTS NASH U.S. Geological Survey (01169900) WBSW (01174000) (01097300) (01174565) streamflow-gaging stations CADW STIL MILL (01174900) HOPM Station code— (01171500) (01095220) BOSTON SYKE (01174000) U.S. Geological Survey 90 (01180000) SEVE 90 station number in parenthesis BASS (01175670) OLDS WBWE (01089000) (01105600) Streamflow-gaging station GRGB (01181000) (01198000) DORC QUAB BRAN (01107000) IHEA VALL (01176000) NIPM (01111500) (01105730) HUBB (01187400) WADI (01111300) (01109000) 42° (01187300) STCT PEEP BLAB (01184100) 495 (01198500) (01115098) SALC MOUN TAUN (01199050) (01121000) PONA (01108000) (01115187) WBPA BURL (01109200) (01188000) HOPC BLAC (01120000) (01126600) NOOS (01115630) TENM LITT WOOA ADAM (01200000) (01123000) CONNECTICUT (01117800) (01106000) SALR WOOH (01193500) (01118000) BRRI A T L A N T I C PEND (01117460) EBEM (01118300) O C E A N (01194500) INDI PAWE PAWR RHODE (01195100) (01118500) (01117500) ISLAND Base from U.S. Geological Survey, DLG, 1:2,000,000, 2005 0 25 50 MILES Massachusetts State Plane projection, North American Datum 1983 0 25 50 KILOMETERS Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5227 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to assess water availability at ungaged stream locations in Massachusetts By Stacey A. Archfield, Richard M. Vogel, Peter A. Steeves, Sara L. Brandt, Peter K. Weiskel, and Stephen P. Garabedian Prepared in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5227 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Marcia K. McNutt, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2010 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. Suggested citation: Archfield, S.A., Vogel, R.M., Steeves, P.A., Brandt, S.L., Weiskel, P.K., and Garabedian, S.P., 2010, The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to assess water availability at ungaged stream locations in Mas- sachusetts: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5227, 41 p. plus CD-ROM. ISBN 978 1 4113 2664 4 iii Contents Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................2 Safe versus Sustainable Yield ............................................................................................................2 Existing Tools to Estimate Streamflow and Assess Water Availability in Massachusetts .......2 Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................5 Estimation of Unregulated, Daily Mean Streamflow ................................................................................5 Estimation of a Continuous Flow-Duration Curve at Ungaged Sites ............................................5 Streamgages, Flow-Duration-Curve Statistics, and Basin Characteristics ......................5 Regression against Basin Characteristics .............................................................................7 Regression against Streamflow Quantiles ..............................................................................9 Estimation of Streamflow Time Series by use of a Reference Streamgage ...............................9 Reference Streamgages ...........................................................................................................11 Selection of a Reference Streamgage ...................................................................................11 Comparison of Observed and Estimated Streamflows .................................................................13 Uncertainty of Estimated Streamflows ...........................................................................................18 Streamflow Adjusted for Groundwater and Surface-Water Withdrawals and Discharges ...........22 Reported Groundwater and Surface-Water Withdrawals and Discharges .............................22 Disaggregation of Withdrawal and Discharge Volumes ..............................................................24 Use of the STRMDEPL Program .......................................................................................................25 Estimation of Streamflow when Groundwater and Surface-Water Divides are not Coincident .................................................................................................................................27 Calculation of Sustainable Yields Using the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (MA SYE) Tool ..................................................................................................................................27 Limitations .....................................................................................................................................................29 Summary........................................................................................................................................................30 Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................................31 References Cited..........................................................................................................................................31 Appendix 1. Statewide maps of selected basin characteristics used to estimate unregulated, daily streamflows ................................................................................. on CD-ROM iv Figures 1. Diagram showing translation of a flow-duration curve to a time series of estimated streamflow using the QPPQ method, showing (A) the observed time series, (B) flow- duration curve, (C) exceedence probability, and (D) estimated time series for the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator tool ...................................................................4 2–4. Map showing— 2. Locations of contributing basins to 47 stream reaches monitored by U.S. Geological Survey streamgages with greater than 20 years of observed, daily mean streamflow data including streamflow during the drought of the 1960s, in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Vermont, and Rhode Island, generally considered to be the southern New England study area ...............6 3. Locations of contributing basins to 66 stream reaches monitored by U.S. Geological Survey streamgages, used as reference sites to estimate unregulated, mean streamflow with the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield- Estimator tool, southern New England study area .......................................................12 4. Estimated Pearson r correlations with the logarithm of daily streamflows at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgages (A) 01174900, Cadwell Creek near Belchertown, MA (CADW), and (B) 01095220, Stillwater River near Sterling, MA (STIL) ...................................................................................................14 5–6. Boxplots showing— 5. Distribution of basin characteristics used in six regression equations to estimate unregulated, daily mean streamflow at selected streamflow quantiles and range of characteristics used to validate the estimated mean, daily streamflows computed by the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (MA SYE) tool ......................................................................................................................16 6. Distribution of goodness-of-fit statistics, (A) Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values and (B) percent root-mean-square error, computed from observed and estimate mean, daily streamflow values at 18 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages