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Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11Th to 20Th May 2021

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Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11Th to 20Th May 2021 REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 80 Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11th to 20th May 2021 th 11 May 2021 © NOCC May 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. MEKA ZE Philemon Raissa, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°80 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11th to 20th May 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021. This dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Harmattan in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and the influence of the Monsoon over the rest of the national territory. II. Forecast Summary II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018 and temperatures around the average recorded in the previous dekad They include: - Maroua, Kaele, Mora, Mokolo, Kousseri, Yagoua, Maga, Bogo, Waza, Mindif, Makary, Gamboura, in the Far North Region; - Garoua, Lagdo, Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Guider, Poli, Touboro, Dembo and Pitoa, in the North Region; - Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere, Banyo and Mbakaou, in the Adamawa Region; - Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro, Yoko and Yaounde, in the Centre Region; - Yokadouma, Batouri, Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Doume, Mbalam and Belabo, in the East Region; - Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum and Zoetele, in the South Region; - Munkep, Audu and Ako, in the North West Region; - Loum, Baptek, Ndokama, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba and Penja in the Littoral Region. NB1: This dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 will be marked by significant risks of heatwave (number of successive days with temperatures between 35°C and 45°C or between 30°C and 35°C) in many localities of the North (Guider, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo, Rey-Bouba, Tchollire, Poli and Touboro) the Far Nort h (Makary, Kousseri, Waza, Mora, Maga, Bogo, Maroua, Mindif, Kaele, Gamboura and Yagoua), Centre (Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yaounde), South (Djoum, Zoetele, Nyabizan, Akom II, Campo, Ebolowa, Kribi, Ambam and Lolodorf), East (Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Doume, Mbalam, Belabo, Moloundou, Kika and Mindourou) and Littoral Regions (Loum, Baptek Ndokama, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba and Penja). II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Gamboura and Mora, in the Far North Region; - Poli, Touboro and Tchollire, in the North Region - Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region; - Betare-Oya and Garoua-Boulai, in the East Region. NB2: This dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities in the West (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang) and North-West (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa) and the Adamawa Region (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou). II.2. For Precipitation The period from 11 to 20 May 2021 will be marked by a general decrease in rainfall amounts in the Bimodal Rain Forest Zone, as well as in the Monomodal Rain Forest Zone. However, it will be more significant in the northern part of the Guinean High Savannah Zone and in the southern part of the North Region. NB3: This dekad, from 11th to 20th May 2021 corresponds to - the continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, South and East regions); - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and in the Monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South West regions); -the extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions). This dekad could also be marked by an increase in the number of successive days without rain in the bimodal rain forest zone and the monomodal rain forest zone NB 4: This dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 is favourable for the continuation of sowing in the Guinean High Savannah Zone, Adamawa Region. th th III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11 to 20 May 2021 2 1) For precipitation For the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021, we expect: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Sporadic rains in the southern part of the North Region. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone Rainfall amounts above those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10 May 2021 in Ngaoundere, around the mean in Meiganga, Tibati and Tignere and below the mean in Banyo and Mbakaou c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone (a) (b) - below average rainfall amounts recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Bafia, Obala, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Yoko, Yaounde, Eseka, Mbalmayo, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Mbandjock and Akonolinga in the Centre Region - below average rainfall amounts recorded from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Sangmelima, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Djoum, Campo, Akom II, Zoetele, Nyabizan, Kribi and Ambam in the South Region - below average rainfall amounts recorded from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Moloundou, Ngoyla, Mindourou, Garoua-Boulai, Lomie, Bertoua, Betare-Oya, Yokadouma, Abong- Mbang, Belabo and Batouri in the East Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that Region recorded during the period May 1-10, 2021 (a) d) In the High plateaux zone Source: NOCC, May 2021 - Rainfall amounts around the average recorded from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Bafang, Dchang, and Makam; above average in Bafoussam, Tonga, Mbouda, Bamendjou, Bangangte, Bazou, Foumbot, NB 5: For the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021, we expect: Massagam, Bare-Bakem, Koutaba, Batcham, and Foumban in the West - a continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal Rain Region; Forest Zone (Centre, South and East Regions); -rainfall amounts around the average - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands Zone (West recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th May and North-West Regions) and the Monomodal Rain Forest Zone 2021 in Nkambe, Nwa, Kumbo, Fundong, (Littoral and South-West Regions) the Guinean High Savannah Bali, Batibo, Widikum, Wum, Bamenda and an increase in Ndop, Munkep, Benakuma, Zone (Adamawa Region); Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom, Ako in the - an extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone (Far North West Region North and North Regions). e) In the Mono-modal rain forest zone - Above average rainfall amounts in the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, and Nguti; below average in Muyuka, Kumba, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, and Idenau; around average in Bamusso, Dikome Balue, and Fontem in the South West Region; - below average rainfall amounts in the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Yabassi, Nkondjock, Dibombari,
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