REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ------

ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 80

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11th to 20th May 2021

th 11 May 2021

© NOCC May 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. MEKA ZE Philemon Raissa, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°80 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11th to 20th May 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021. This dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Harmattan in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and the influence of the Monsoon over the rest of the national territory.

II. Forecast Summary II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018 and temperatures around the average recorded in the previous dekad They include: - Maroua, Kaele, Mora, Mokolo, Kousseri, Yagoua, Maga, Bogo, Waza, Mindif, Makary, Gamboura, in the Far ; - , Lagdo, Tchollire, Rey Bouba, , Poli, , Dembo and , in the North Region; - Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere, Banyo and Mbakaou, in the Adamawa Region; - , , Eseka, , Obala, , , Monatele, , , Yoko and Yaounde, in the ; - Yokadouma, Batouri, Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Doume, Mbalam and Belabo, in the East Region; - , Sangmelima, Djoum and Zoetele, in the ; - Munkep, Audu and Ako, in the North West Region; - Loum, Baptek, Ndokama, , Nkondjock, , Melong, Mbanga, and in the Littoral Region. NB1: This dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 will be marked by significant risks of heatwave (number of successive days with temperatures between 35°C and 45°C or between 30°C and 35°C) in many localities of the North (Guider, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo, Rey-Bouba, Tchollire, Poli and Touboro) the Far Nort h (Makary, Kousseri, Waza, Mora, Maga, Bogo, Maroua, Mindif, Kaele, Gamboura and Yagoua), Centre (Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yaounde), South (Djoum, Zoetele, Nyabizan, Akom II, Campo, Ebolowa, , and ), East (Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Doume, Mbalam, Belabo, Moloundou, Kika and Mindourou) and Littoral Regions (Loum, Baptek Ndokama, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba and Penja). II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Gamboura and Mora, in the Far North Region; - Poli, Touboro and Tchollire, in the North Region - Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region; - Betare-Oya and Garoua-Boulai, in the East Region. th th NB2: This dekad from 11 to 20 May 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities in the West (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang) and North-West (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa) and the Adamawa Region (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou). II.2. For Precipitation The period from 11 to 20 May 2021 will be marked by a general decrease in rainfall amounts in the Bimodal Rain Forest Zone, as well as in the Monomodal Rain Forest Zone. However, it will be more significant in the northern part of the Guinean High Savannah Zone and in the southern part of the North Region.

NB3: This dekad, from 11th to 20th May 2021 corresponds to - the continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, South and East regions); - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and in the Monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South West regions); -the extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions). This dekad could also be marked by an increase in the number of successive days without rain in the bimodal rain forest zone and the monomodal rain forest zone NB 4: This dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 is favourable for the continuation of sowing in the Guinean High Savannah Zone, Adamawa Region. th th III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11 to 20 May 2021 2

1) For precipitation

For the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021, we expect: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Sporadic rains in the southern part of the North Region. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone Rainfall amounts above those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10 May 2021 in Ngaoundere, around the mean in Meiganga, Tibati and Tignere and below the mean in Banyo and Mbakaou c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone (a) (b) - below average rainfall amounts recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Bafia, Obala, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Yoko, Yaounde, Eseka, Mbalmayo, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Mbandjock and Akonolinga in the Centre Region - below average rainfall amounts recorded from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Sangmelima, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Djoum, Campo, Akom II, Zoetele, Nyabizan, Kribi and Ambam in the South Region - below average rainfall amounts recorded from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Moloundou, Ngoyla, Mindourou, Garoua-Boulai, Lomie, Bertoua, Betare-Oya, Yokadouma, Abong- Mbang, Belabo and Batouri in the East Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that Region recorded during the period May 1-10, 2021 (a) d) In the High plateaux zone Source: NOCC, May 2021 - Rainfall amounts around the average recorded from 1st to 10th May 2021 in

Bafang, Dchang, and Makam; above average in Bafoussam, Tonga, Mbouda, Bamendjou, Bangangte, Bazou, Foumbot, NB 5: For the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021, we expect: Massagam, Bare-Bakem, Koutaba, Batcham, and Foumban in the West - a continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal Rain Region; Forest Zone (Centre, South and East Regions); -rainfall amounts around the average - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands Zone (West st th recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 May and North-West Regions) and the Monomodal Rain Forest Zone 2021 in Nkambe, Nwa, Kumbo, Fundong, (Littoral and South-West Regions) the Guinean High Savannah Bali, Batibo, Widikum, Wum, Bamenda and an increase in Ndop, Munkep, Benakuma, Zone (Adamawa Region); Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom, Ako in the - an extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone (Far North West Region North and North Regions). e) In the Mono-modal rain forest zone - Above average rainfall amounts in the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, and Nguti; below average in Muyuka, Kumba, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, and Idenau; around average in Bamusso, Dikome Balue, and Fontem in the South West Region; - below average rainfall amounts in the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Yabassi, Nkondjock, , Edea, Mbanga, Penja, , and Dizangue; around average in Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum in the Littoral Region

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2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures -around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Koutaba, Dschang, Foumbot, Bazou, Based on the historical mean of maximum temperatures recorded Bafang, Bangangte, Tonga and Makam; below the historical mean in Bafoussam, Mbouda, Batcham, during this dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, notably Bamendjing and Nkoumangba; above the historical mean in Foumban in the West Region; 38. 57°C in the Far North Region; 36.1°C in the North Region; -around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Idenau, Eyumojock, Ekok, Bamusso, 31.45°C in the Adamawa Region; 28.1°C in the Centre Region; Muyuka, Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Mundemba, Fontem, Buea, Bakogo, Limbe, Kumba and Mamfe; below 29.15°C in the South Region; 28.1°C in the East Region; 26.48°C the historical mean in Tiko, Bechati, Kumbe Balue; above the historical mean in Dikombe Bafaw in the in the West Region; 26.8°C in the North-West Region; 28.28°C in South West Region; the South-West Region and 28.16°C in the Littoral Region, for the -above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Loum, Baptek Ndokama, Yabassi, dekad of 11 to 20 May 2021, we expect maximum temperatures: Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba and Penja; around the historical mean in Mouanko, - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mora, Douala, Dizangue, Ndokiti III, Dibombari and Edea in the Littoral Region. Mokolo, Kousseri, Yagoua, Maga, Bogo, Waza and Mindif; below the historical mean in Makary and above the historical mean in Gamboura, Maroua and Kaele, in the Far North Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Guider, Poli, Touboro and Dembo; above the historical mean in Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo, in the North Region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou; below the historical mean in Meiganga, Dota, Tignere and Ngaoundere, in the Adamawa Region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga (a) Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro, and Yaounde; around the (b) historical mean in Tikar and Yoko in the Centre Region - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua- Boulai; above the historical mean in Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Doume, Mbalam, and Belabo; around the historical mean in Moloundou, Kika, Mindourou, and Mambele in the East Region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Sangmelima, Djoum and Zoetele; around the historical mean in Nyabizan, Akom II, Campo, Ebolowa, Kribi and Ambam; below the historical mean in Lolodorf in the South Region; - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bali, Santa, Ndop, Kumbo, Ndu, Nkambe, Kumbo, Bambalang and Fundong; above the historical mean in Benakuma, Nwa, Wum and Esu; above the historical mean in Munkep, Furu-Awa, Audu and Ako in the North West Region; Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, May 2021)

4 Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Bamenda, recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 May 2021, for the dekad from 11 to 20 Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop and Wum; above the mean in Benakuma and Nwa in the May 2021 we expect maximum temperatures: North-West Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th May st th - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 May 2021 in Bangangte, 2021 in Waza, Kousseri, Mindif, Makary, Maroua, Mora, Mokolo, Foumbot, Bare-Bakem, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Dschang, Magba, Bafang, Bazou, Bogo, Maga, Yagoua and Kaele; below the mean in Gamboura in the Mbouda, Tonga and Makam; above the mean in Foumban in the West Region. Far North Region; - around the mean recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Garoua, Lagdo, Pitoa, Poli and Touboro; below the mean in Rey- Bouba, Tchollire, Dembo and Guider in the North Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Ngaoundal, Mbe, Kognoli, Banyo, Tignere, Mbakaou and Tibati; above the mean in Ngaoundere, Yimbere, Nassarao and Meiganga in the Adamawa Region; - around the mean recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Lomie, Abong-Mbang, Belabo, Ngoyla, Moloundou, Yokadouma, Batouri and Bertoua; above the mean in Betare-Oya, Kongolo and (a) Garoua-Boulai; below the mean in Mindourou in the East Region; (b) - around the mean recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Ngoro, Eseka, , Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Mbandjock, , Nkoteng, Bafia, Mbalmayo, Obala and Yoko; above the mean in Yaounde in the Centre Region; - around the mean recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Zoetele, Djoum, Kribi, Minkoumou, Ebolowa, Lolodorf, and Ambam; above the mean in Nyabizan, Sangmelima, Akom II and Campo in the South Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Bamusso, Eyumojock, Tiko, Mundemba, Limbe, Mamfe, Nguti, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Kumba, Ekang, Dikome Balue, Idenau, Fontem, Ekok and Buea in the South West Region; - around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Melong, Nkongsamba, , Manjo, Ngambe, , Ndom, Dizangue, Figure 3: Variation in average maximum temperatures for the dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021 (b) compared Douala, , Edea, Ndokama, Loum and Mouanko; above the to those recorded for the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 (a). mean in Yabassi and Mbanga in the Littoral Region; Source: NOCC, May 2021

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Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: -Maroua and Kaele in the Far North Region; - Garoua and Lagdo, in the North Region;

-Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere, Banyo and Mbakaou in the Adamawa Region;

-Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro, Yoko and Yaounde in the Centre Region - Yokadouma, Batouri, Mindourou, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Doume, , Mbalam and Belabo in the East Region; - Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum and Zoetele, in the South Region;

- Munkep, Audu and Ako, in the North West Region; - Loum, Baptek Ndokama, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba and Penja in the Littoral Region.

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- above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ako, Wum, Audu, Nwa, Munkep and b) For Minimum Temperatures Furu Awa; around the historical mean in Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda, Ndop, and Benakuma; Based on the historical average of minimum temperatures below the historical mean in Pinyin in the North West Region; recorded from 1979 to 2018, notably 26.65°C in the Far North - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dikome Bafaw Mamfe, Ekang, and Region; 25.6°C in the North Region; 22.16°C in the Adamawa Eyumojock; above the historical mean in Idenau, Tiko, Dikome Balue, Bamusso, Bakogo, Region; 20°C in the Centre Region; 21.56°C in the South Region; 20°C in the East Region; 17.5°C in the West Region; Limbe, Nguti, Buea, and Kumba; below the historical mean in Mundemba and Kumbe Balue in 17°C in the North-West Region; 20.36°C in the South-West the South West Region; Region and 21.06°C in the Littoral Region, for the dekad from - above the mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Mouanko, Baptek, Douala, Manjo, Penja, Nkongsamba and Loum; around the historical mean in Ndokama, Edea, 11 to 20 May 2021, we expect minimum temperatures: Mbanga, Yabassi and Dizangue in the Littoral Region. -below the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Gamboura, Mokolo and Mora; around the historical mean in Waza, Makary, Kousseri, Maroua, Kaele, Maga, Mindif and Yagoua in the Far North Region; -around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Garoua, Rey Bouba, Dembo and Lagdo; below the historical mean in Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire in the North Region; -below the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga; around the historical mean in Banyo; above the (a) historical mean in Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou in the (b) Adamawa Region; -above the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Monatele, , Eseka, Yoko, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Bafia, Obala, Mbalmayo, Yaounde and Ngambe Tikar in the Centre Region; -above the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Mindourou, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Ngoyla, Belabo, Lomie and Batouri; below the historical mean in Garoua-Boulai; around the historical mean in Moloundou and Betare Oya in the East Region; -above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Kribi, Campo, Zoetele, Djoum, Minkoumou, Ebolowa, Akom II, Lolodorf; around the Figure 4: Variation in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (11-20 May 2021) (b) historical mean in Nyabizan and Ambam in the South Region; compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 (a). Source: NOCC, May 2021 -around the historical mean recorded for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Bafoussam, Bafang, Mbouda, Bamendjing and Bazou; above the historical mean in Foumbot, Makam, Tonga, Bangangte and Foumban in the West Region;

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Based on the difference between the average minimum -around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Tiko, Muyuka, Idenau, Bamusso, Mundemba, Kumba, Mamfe, Buea; above the mean in Nguti, Bakogo, Dikombe Bafaw, temperatures recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 May 2021, for the dekad from 11 to 20 May 2021, we expect Ekok and Ekang in the South-West Region. minimum temperatures: -around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Mindif, Yagoua, Makary, Bogo, Kaele, Maga and Kousseri; above the mean in Maroua, Mokolo, Waza and Mora in the Far North Region; -around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Tchollire, Pitoa and Garoua; above the mean in Dembo, Guider, Lagdo, Poli, Rey Bouba and Touboro in the North Region; -around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Dota, Ngaou Mbol, Mbakaou, Tibati, Tignere, Banyo and Meiganga; above the mean in Ngaoundere; below the mean in Yimbere in the Adamawa Region; st th -around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 May (a) 2021 in Yaounde, Obala, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko, Mbandjock, (b) Ngoro, above the mean in Akonolinga, Eseka, Monatele, Yoko, Bafia and Ngambe Tikar in the Centre Region; -above the mean recorded during the period from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Moloundou, Garoua-Boulai, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Belabo, Batouri, Bertoua, Lomie, Ngoyla and Yokadouma; around the mean in Betare Oya in the East Region; -above the mean recorded during the period from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Ebolowa, Djoum, Ambam, Campo, Kribi, Akom II, Sangmelima and Lolodorf; around the mean in Zoetele in the South Region; -around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangte, Bamendjing, Mbouda, Foumban, Magba, Bafoussam and Bafang; above the mean in Tonga, Makam and Foumbot in the West Region; -around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th May 2021 in Fundong, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop and Bamenda; above the mean in Benakuma, Figure 4: Variations in minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those Nwa, Munkep, Ako, Furu Awa and Wum in the North-West recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th May 2021 (a).

Region; Source: NOCC, May 2021 st th -around the mean recorded from 1 to 10 May 2021 in Penja, Ndokama, Edea, Dizangue, Nkongsamba and Yabassi; above the mean in Mouanko, Loum, Melong, Manjo, Douala and Baptek in the 8 Littoral Region; Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th May 2021, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include:

-Gamboura and Mora in the Far North Region; - Poli, Touboro and Tchollire in the North Region

- Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa Region; - Betare-Oya and Garoua-Boulai in the East Region.

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IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: • cases of loss of livestock by lightning due to stormy rains accompanied by heavy A high risk of recording cases of: thunder in the Guinean high savannah zone. • increased bush fires due to the dry season combined with the effect of dry winds and high d) In the water and energy sector: temperatures in the Far North and North regions; A high risk of: • water stress, for vegetable and food crops in the Far North and North regions due to the - continuous drying up of water supply points due to drought and continuous decrease scarcity of water resources and drought and in the Bimodal and monomodal rain forest zones in the water table in the Far North Region and the northern part of the North Region; following disturbances that will result in an increase in the number of successive days - decrease in the volume of water in dams, water catchment and treatment points in the without rain; Far North and northern part of the North Region; -destruction of plantations in many localities in the Centre, East, South, South-West and - the falling of electricity transportation poles due to heavy rains accompanied by

Littoral Regions, due to heavy rains accompanied by strong winds. strong winds in the Guinean high savannah zone, the bimodal rain forest zone, the NB 6: This period is suitable for the continuation of sowing in the Guinean High Savannah monomodal rain forest zone and the highlands zone; Zone. -the contamination of groundwater, surface water and water catchment points by polluted

runoff in the bimodal rain forest zone, the monomodal rain forest zone, the Guinean high b) In the health sector: savannah zone and the Highlands zone. A risk of recording cases of: • meningococcal meningitis, due to the severe dry season in the Far North and North regions, e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: coupled with the increased dust in the air; A high risk of recording numerous cases of: • water-borne diseases (typhoid, yeasts, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), due to the poor quality of - bush fires in many localities in the Far North and North Regions; drinking water, in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; - poaching in areas close to protected areas due to wildlife roaming outside reserves in • cases of cholera in some settlements in the monomodal and bimodal rainfall forest zones, in the search of water and food, in the Far North and North Regions; Highlands zone, due to the pollution of drinking water by polluted run-off water; - conflict between populations and certain wildlife species (Elephants, Lions etc.) in • respiratory diseases (flu epidemic, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), due to dust search of water and food, in the Far North and North Regions; increasingly present in the air in the Far North and North regions; - A high risk of observing morning fog leading to traffic accidents in many localities in • conjunctivitis due to the combined effect of heat, wind and dust in the air in the Far North and the Centre, South and East Regions (bimodal rain forest zone), West and north-west North regions; (Highlands zone) and South-West (monomodal rain forest zone); • general pathologies in people suffering from hypertension, diabetes, obesity and women in - A high risk of recording cases of floods in some localities in the North-West and West menopause, due to heat, in the 05 Agro-ecological zones; Regions (Highlands zone), and in some parts of Ngaoundere and surrounding localities; • proliferation of malaria causing vectors ( mosquitoes) in the 05 Agro-ecological zones. - A high risk of recording cases of landslides in some localities of the North-West and the West Regions (Highlands Zone). c) For the livestock sector A high risk of recording cases of: f) In the defence and security sector: • continued migration of transhumant herders in search of water and pasture in the Far North A risk of recording cases of: Region and in many localities in the North Region; - conflicts between herders and farmers in their search for water sources and food in •an increase in conflicts (herders versus farmers and between herders) around water points in the the Far North and North regions; plains and pasture lands in the Far North and North Regions; - conflicts between populations from different localities of the Far North and North • numerous cases of epizootics due to the cold weather during the night in some localities of the regions, due to limited pasture and water resources for various purposes (consumption, West Region (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang), North-West Region (Bali, irrigation, etc.). Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa); continued scarcity of pasture and water resources in the Far North Region and in many localities in the North Region;

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st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 1 to 10 May 2021

High Guinean Mono-modal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West North West South West Littoral Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 26,6 27 17,8 20,2 20,7 20,26 17,24 17,12 21,41 22,1

Trend forecasts ≈ Success rates of Forecasts (%) 80 81,1 83,5 83 85,7 79,2 81 85 80,2 86,1 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 39,85 37,65 34,6 31,8 29,6 30,9 27,9 27,9 29,6 29,1 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 85 83,3 86,2 85,3 84,3 83,5 86,8 85,3 87 87 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 0-60 61-81 82-101 102-121 122-200 201-210 211-240 241-260 261-300 301-350 2018(mm) Trend forecasts ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 100 100 98 100 100 100 98,6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction; = Increase

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VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to:

In the Agriculture sector, continue to Follow the agricultural calendar produced by NOCC for the 2021 agricultural season.

In the health sector, continue to ▪ raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ dress warmly in localities experiencing decreased minimum temperatures during this period; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ strengthen community health surveillance to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases. ▪ continue vaccination campaigns against various epidemics and pandemics.

In the water and energy sector, to continue: ▪ regular sampling, analysis and treatment of drinking water at catchment points and water supply points before distribution to households; ▪ regular use of basic techniques (filtering, boiling, etc.) to make drinking water potable at household level; ▪ the replacement of defective (wooden) electricity transportation poles.

For more information, contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 Building no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected]