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171010VSIN V4 (Updated)1.Pdf AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3 Indexindex Rotation Schedule ..........................................................................................................................................3 VSiN NFL Consensus .....................................................................................................................................4 Matt Youmans’ 3 NFL Games to Watch ..........................................................................................................5 Tuley’s Take ....................................................................................................................................................6 Opening Lines by Brent Musburger ................................................................................................................9 NFL Post Bye Week Trends and Systems....................................................................................................10 NFL Strength Ratings ...................................................................................................................................13 NFL Matchups ..............................................................................................................................................14 NFL Top Weekly Trends ...............................................................................................................................21 Top NFL Head to Head Trends .....................................................................................................................22 Recent NFL Head to Head History ...............................................................................................................22 The Dangers of Getting Cute with NFL Favorites of -5 to -6.5 .....................................................................24 NFL Observations .........................................................................................................................................26 Football Line Moves .....................................................................................................................................27 VSiN College Football Consensus ...............................................................................................................28 Matt Youmans’ 3 College Football Games to Watch ....................................................................................29 College Football Strength Ratings ................................................................................................................30 College Football Matchups ...........................................................................................................................32 True Home-Field Advantage in College Football ..........................................................................................54 College Football Top Weekly Trends ............................................................................................................60 Top CFB Head to Head Trends ....................................................................................................................61 Recent CFB Head to Head History...............................................................................................................62 CFB Observations ........................................................................................................................................68 Welcome to Week 7 of the 2017-18 Point Spread Weekly. This week’s publication covers the sixth week of the NFL Welcome to season and the seventh week of college football. Can you believe we are this far along already? Seems like the preseason just started. What a season we are having Point Spread already though, right? In the NFL, parity reigns, as only a single team is undefeated after fve weeks, thus the ’73 Dolphins need only worry about the Kansas City Chiefs Weekly before they can once again meet to toast and celebrate their unmatched perfection. On the opposite side of the spectrum, there are three teams that have yet to win: the N.Y. Giants, Cleveland and San Francisco. In college, it seems parity has gone out the window, with what appears to be an inevitable course to a third straight championship game matching Clemson and Alabama. That said, perhaps Penn State, Georgia, or Washington--the rest of the current top 5--can eventually challenge the last two national champions. Or, perhaps like Oklahoma last week, the Tide or Tigers could be tripped up along the way. Doesn’t seem like it, but you never know. That’s why they play the games. Speaking of which, we will continue to cover ALL of the games from a betting perspective for both college & pro football the rest of the way. The season is off to a pretty good start for some of our handicappers, as Matt Youmans in the NFL and Paul Howard in college football are setting a torrid pace in their Best Bets, with Youmans at 17-7-1 ATS for 73%, and Howard at 19-10-1 ATS for 66%. Youmans is hitting in overall picks as well in the NFL with a 33-15 ATS record (69%). If you haven’t been following his analysis closer in recent week, we encourage you to start. His “Games to Watch” feature has been well received by most readers, so hopefully you feel the same way. Besides the usual stats, trends, picks, and other matchup features in this week’s pub, look for the frst part in an exclusive college football article series that focuses on home performance. Next week we’ll cover road performance, but this week’s article looks specifcally at how teams have performed at home in the last 3+ seasons as compared to how they were expected to do. This variance is what we term TRUE HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE. In the NFL ranks, I fnish up a two-part series as well, this time looking at Post-Bye Week Trends & Systems. Not counting the unexpected byes of Miami and Tampa Bay, this week’s NFL schedule offers the frst time to bet on teams coming out of their bye weeks. Brent’s Opening Lines column also digs into the NFL, looking specifcally at some of the huge point spreads we have for consideration this weekend. Jeff Fogle also has an intriguing tutorial piece called “The Dangers of Getting Cute with NFL Favorites of -5 to -6.5”. He has a unique take on the subject and offers up some recent sample games to get you thinking. Finally, the newest member of our team, Dave Tuley brings another edition of “Tuley’s Takes” for this weekend’s NFL board. We appreciate your continued support of the Point Spread Weekly and hope that you are enjoying it enough to make it a permanent part of your handicapping routine. If you are continuing to be a weekly reader, we encourage you to sign up for the long haul at VSiN.com/ subscribe. While there be sure to check out all of the other On our cover: Matt Youmans, Jonathan great features we have to offer on the website. Von Tobel and Dave Tuley host a new show on VSiN. It’s called “The Starting Lineup” Best of luck this week on all the action! and will run from 4-5 p.m. PT on Sundays. Steve Makinen @SteveMakinen The crew will take a frst look at the opening Editor lines for college and pro games for the 2 coming week. VSiN.COM - VEGAS STATS & INFORMATION NETWORK Rotation Schedule COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 7 COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2017 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2017 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2017 101 S ALABAMA 48 48 151 TCU -4.5 -4.5 203 TEXAS A&M 54 52 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN2 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM FOX 1 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN2 102 TROY -17 -17 152 KANSAS ST 56.5 53.5 204 FLORIDA -4 -2.5 153 OLD DOMINION 50.5 53 205 SOUTH CAROLINA 49 48 NFL FOOTBALL WEEK 6 P: 11:30AM C: 1:30PM E: 2:30PM ESPN3 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN THURSDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2017 154 MARSHALL -17 -16 206 TENNESSEE -2.5 -2.5 103 PHILADELPHIA 45 46 155 FLORIDA ST -6.5 -6.5 207 AUBURN -6 -6.5 P: 5:25PM C: 7:25PM E: 8:25PM CBS P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN2 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM CBS 104 CAROLINA -3 -3.5 156 DUKE 46 43.5 208 LSU 46 44.5 157 HOUSTON -13 -14 209 MICHIGAN ST -3 -4.5 COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 7 cont'd P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM ESPNN P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM BIG10 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2017 158 TULSA 61.5 65 210 MINNESOTA 41.5 40 107 TEXAS ST UNIV 60.5 58 159 MIDDLE TENN ST -4 -5 211 OREGON 60 61.5 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM ESPNU P: 3:30PM C: 5:30PM E: 6:30PM P: 8:00PM C: 10:00PM E: 11:00PM FOX 1 108 LA LAFAYETTE -15 -15 160 UAB 57 56 212 STANFORD -11 -11 161 GEORGIA ST 57 57 213 WASHINGTON -17 -18 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2017 P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM ESPN3 P: 7:45PM C: 9:45PM E: 10:45PM ESPN 109 CLEMSON -21 -23 162 LA MONROE -6 -7 214 ARIZONA ST 63.5 62 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN 163 CHARLOTTE 48 46.5 215 NEW MEXICO 55 54 110 SYRACUSE 56 55.5 P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM P: 7:00PM C: 9:00PM E: 10:00PM 111 WASHINGTON ST -14 -13 164 W KENTUCKY -18 -17 216 FRESNO ST -3 -2.5 P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM ESPN 165 WYOMING 55 49 217 BOISE ST 51 44.5 112 CALIFORNIA 58 53 P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM CBSC 166 UTAH ST -3.5 -3 218 SAN DIEGO ST -7 -7 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2017 167 UNLV 68 68.5 219 SAN JOSE ST 61 63.5 113 PURDUE 53 52 P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM P: 9:00PM C: 11:00PM E: 12:00AM P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM BIG10 168 AIR FORCE -11 -7.5 220 HAWAII -18 -18 114 WISCONSIN -18 -16 169 NEVADA 59.5 65.5 221 CINCINNATI 66.5 69.5 115 NORTHWESTERN -3.5 -3.5 P: 7:15PM C: 9:15PM E: 10:15PM ESPN2 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM ESPNU P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
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