Denver Broncos
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Denver Broncos 2018 record: 6-10 Total DVOA: 6.6% (13th) 2019 Mean Projection: 6.2 wins On the Clock (0-4): 27% Pythagorean Wins: 7.4 (18th) Offense: 1.1% (14th) Postseason Odds: 14.5% Mediocrity (5-7): 43% Snap-Weighted Age: 26.5 (13th) Defense: -9.7% (5th) Super Bowl Odds: 0.9% Playoff Contender (8-10): 24% Average Opponent: 2.9% (6th) Special Teams: -4.2% (31st) Proj. Avg. Opponent: 3.4% (1st) Super Bowl Contender (11+): 6% 2018: Riding along on the quarterback carousel, trying to catch up to you. 2019: Nearer and nearer by changing horses, still so far away. or decades, the Denver Broncos were synonymous with Chance metric, the decision cost Denver 33.1 percent GWC. F organizational competence. Perhaps they weren’t always It was the worst play call made since tracking began in 2011. at the top of the league, but you could count on them bounc- That just about sums up the Vance Joseph experience. ing back very quickly. Denver hadn’t experienced consecutive Elway has since admitted, in an interview with Peter King, losing seasons since 1972. The next-longest streak in the NFL that he was wrong to hire Joseph; that he had an idea that belonged to the Packers, and they had back-to-back stinkers as Joseph was “kind of [his] guy” before the hiring process be- recently as 1990-91. That’s two entire decades of success over gan. That meant Denver passed on candidates Sean McVay anyone else in the league, an extended period of organization- and Kyle Shanahan as Elway zeroed in on his target. This time al competence most other fanbases would die for. If you’re a around, a more extensive interview process led Elway and the Broncos fan under the age of 55, you had never experienced Broncos to settle on longtime defensive coordinator Vic Fan- an extended down period. gio as their new head coach. The past tense can be so harsh. At age 60, Fangio is old for a first-time head coach, but Whatever luster was still left on John Elway’s tenure as an he brings with him an impressive resume. Fangio has spent executive was wiped right off with last year’s 6-10 record. more years as an NFL defensive coordinator alone than Vance It wasn’t just back-to-back losing seasons, it was back-to- Joseph had spent as a coach or assistant on any level prior to back double-digit-losing seasons, a first for the Broncos in the his hire in 2017. It’s not just bygone success, either; half of NFL. Banners fly forever, and that Super Bowl 50 title means Fangio’s defenses have ranked in the top 10 in DVOA, and he that Elway’s reign won’t be a failure no matter what, but he ended up taking Chicago from 31st in defense to first in four has also overseen his team falling into a pit the likes of which years, showing improvement in every season. His players love they haven’t seen since bell bottoms and Soul Train ruled the him; his rivals rave about his schematic ingenuity. We have no world. With that in mind, Elway has done the electric slide idea what he’ll be like as a head coach, but as a strictly defen- over to the reset button in an effort to get the Broncos back in sive hire, Fangio’s the real deal. While the offense got most of the general direction of the right track. the talent acquisition this offseason, Fangio’s job is to take the Out goes Vance Joseph, who leaves with the worst winning remaining defensive parts and squeeze the most out of them. percentage for a full-time Broncos head coach since Lou Sa- Fangio’s defense, like what Joseph trotted out the past cou- ban. Out goes Case Keenum, whose 2017 season looks more ple seasons, is a 3-4 front on paper, but they have very differ- and more like a one-hit wonder. Out go starters Matt Para- ent philosophies when it comes to how the defense actually dis, Jared Veldheer, Domata Peko, Brandon Marshall, Darian plays. Stewart, and Bradley Roby. It’s time for a brand-new head First, there are the play-calling differences. Expect far coach, a half-dozen new starters on offense, and the fifth start- fewer blitzes than we have seen in recent years; while Den- ing quarterback in the past four years. ver ranked in the top 10 last season in both five- and six-man Joseph was unprepared to be an NFL head coach. We could rushes, Fangio’s defenses always rank towards the bottom of talk about Denver’s slow starts, or their clock management the pack. Instead, he relies on his down linemen to occupy issues. We could wonder about the lack of an organizational blockers inside and allow his outside linebackers to win in vision or guiding philosophy around which the team could one-on-one opportunities. Whereas Joseph’s defense was de- grow. We could poke holes in the depth chart and personnel signed around being aggressive towards the passer and using decisions, or list all the fourth-down and red zone errors. But tight press-man coverage to force quarterbacks to make quick the Vance Joseph experience can perhaps best be summed up decisions, Fangio’s is more about confusion and misdirection. by one play: in Week 15, against the Cleveland Browns, down He likes to mix zone and man coverages on the same play, by four with 5:29 left in the game, the Broncos faced a fourth- creating combo coverages trying to get quarterbacks to mis- and-1 from the Browns’ 6-yard line. Joseph elected to run the diagnose the defenses pre-snap. When it works, this results in clock down all the way, take a delay of game penalty, and creative yet safe pressure packages. then kick a 29-yard field goal. Per EdjSports’ Game Winning To make that work, however, Fangio’s defense needs versa- 70 DENVER BRONCOS 71 2018 DEN DVOA by Week 2019 Broncos Schedule 100% Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80% 1 at OAK (Mon.) 7 KC (Thu.) 13 LAC 60% 2 CHI 8 at IND 14 at HOU 40% 3 at GB 9 CLE 15 at KC 20% 4 JAX 10 BYE 16 DET 0% 5 at LAC 11 at MIN 17 OAK 6 TEN 12 at BUF -20% -40% -60% tile players who can play a wide variety of different roles. For -80% the past few years, Denver’s defense has been based around -100% specialists: players asked to do one or two things particularly well. That is going to change under Fangio, and the transition could cause some growing pains. In the secondary, Fangio keeps his cornerbacks on one side The Broncos certainly have the outside linebackers to make of the field or the other, rather than having his top guy shadow Fangio’s system go. Von Miller fits in any discussion of the the offense’s top guy. The Broncos have been top-corner-on- best rushing linebackers of all time, and Bradley Chubb’s 34.5 top-guy for a decade at this point, so that’s a massive shift in pass pressures as a rookie were just one behind the veteran. philosophy. Fangio’s safeties are interchangeable, needing to That being said, their jobs, too, will change some in Fangio’s play in the box and cover deep. They’ll be asked to cover less system. The weakside linebacker typically plays up on the line than safeties were under Joseph, however, because Fangio’s of scrimmage as the fourth man in the 4-3 under front. He team is in nickel nearly all the time. Joseph’s Broncos were pins his ears back and charges after the quarterback, so no in their base defense a league-leading 45 percent of the time, problems there. The strongside linebacker, however, is more and then jumped right to dime in passing situations, almost likely to jam the tight end and drop into a short zone, or set never running five defensive backs. Fangio is much more like- the edge against the run. I’m not sure Miller even remembers ly to ask a safety to move up in the box on early downs and what it’s like to drop into coverage, but Fangio’s edge rush- then drop an inside linebacker back when extra coverage is ers are asked to handle more targets than most. Fangio’s not required; there’s no need for substitutions to tip his hand as to exactly going to ask Miller or Chubb to cover Travis Kelce what his team will be doing. That means Chris Harris will be one-on-one or anything, though, and each player should be joined by Bryce Callahan and either Kareem Jackson or Isaac just fine in Fangio’s system. They could even become the first Yiadom as essentially full-time starters. pair of linebackers to rack up double-digit sacks for Fangio Up front, Joseph’s 3-4 was fairly standard, with both ends since Greene and Lamar Lathon back in 1996. generally playing 5- or 4i-technique roles, lining up opposite Inside linebacker is another story. Fangio requires elite ath- the offensive tackles. Fangio’s system uses more of a 4-3 under leticism from both inside linebackers, who are asked to cover front, however. That means one of those ends will often kick far more than you would expect from a standard 3-4 defense.