Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) –Pretoria
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Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) –Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 30 Tuesday, 7 August 2012 The CPRA Daily Briefings are held weekday mornings in the CPRA Pretoria’s Situation Room and the Briefing Notes are the minutes of this meeting during which CONTENTS each regional expert of the Programme reports on the latest human security developments in his/her region, followed by general discussions around the table. An Southern Africa intern then compiles a summary of the meeting, which is reviewed by the respective • South Africa researchers, and a senior researcher edits o The difference between the ANC the report and provides quality control before National Conference in 2007 & returning it to the intern to prepare it for 2012 dispatch to the mailing list to which you have subscribed. o Inability to act against powerful elites hinders attempts to fight CPRA-Pretoria research team corruption o Speaking truth to power Dr David Zounmenou (W. Africa) Mr Andrew Atta-Asamoah (E. Africa & the Horn) Ms Dimpho Motsamai (S. Africa) Dr Gwinyayi A. Dzinesa (S. Africa) Ms Refiloe Joala (Intern) Ms Naomi Kok (Intern) Ms Tarryn Warries (Intern) Today’s Briefings Compilation Ms Tarryn Warries Summary of Briefings Southern Africa South Africa The difference between the ANC National Conference in 2007 & 2012 In a recent article by political commentator Karima Brown in the Sunday Independent on 5 August, she points out that there are a number of differences between the dynamics that were in place in the run-up to the African National Congress’s (ANC) National Conference in Polokwane in 2007, which saw the ousting of President Thabo Mbeki, and the National Conference that will be held in Mangaung this December. These differences, according to Brown, make it likely that President Jacob Zuma’s campaign to remain the president will be successful. The key reason according to Brown, is that ‘[i]n reality, patronage rather than ideology is now the key driver of internal politics inside today’s ANC’. In the run-up to Polokwane, Brown argues that ‘it was still possible to discern some ideological coherence’ in relation to the factions that coalesced around Mbeki and President Zuma. Mbeki had ushered in ‘a right-leaning policy hegemony on the ANC’, and those opposed to him included the left-leaning COSATU and the South African Communist Party (SACP). However, the run-up to Manguang is primarily about access to state resources for the benefit of particular interest groups irrespective of their ideological stances. It is for this reason that the SACP has nailed its colours firmly to President Zuma’s mast while COSATU is largely split. It also explains why the ANC Youth League’s efforts to replace President Zuma with Vice-President Kgalema Motlanthe have left the body adrift with some of its key leaders expelled. While there are factions within the ANC who are dissatisfied with President Zuma, Brown points out that those against him have ‘not consolidated into a coherent faction, and comprises a swirling, confused and frequently realigning mess, still without an agreed champion’. Indeed, Motlanthe has not confirmed his desire to campaign for ANC president in Mangaung. She claims that, unlike the anti-Zuma lobbyists, Motlanthe is aware that he will need to be certain of a win if he decides to compete. President Zuma’s power base is such that he continues to muster a sizable amount of support within the ANC. The recent collapse of the conference of the powerful Eastern Cape OR Tambo Region highlights how close the split is between pro- and anti-Zuma supporters. If Motlanthe runs against President Zuma and doesn’t win he will most certainly lose his position within both the ANC and the government. Inability to act against powerful elites hinders attempts to fight corruption Concern was expressed this week when the Business Day reported that Transnet appeared to have abandoned its ‘ground-breaking civil litigation to recover R95 million in ‘fruitless and wasteful expenditure’ from Abalozi Risk Advisory Services — formerly General Nyanda Security Risk Advisory Services. In 2007 this company, which is closely associated with President Zuma’s former Minister of Communications General Siphiwe Nyanda, was awarded the contract to provide security to ensure a decrease in copper theft. The contract was controversial as it was found to have been awarded fraudulently by Siyabonga Gama, the head of Transnet Freight Rail at the time. He and two other employees were subsequently fired in June 2010. Gama had halted the competitive tender process that was in place to ensure that Nyanda’s company received the lucrative tender. As is often the case with this type of tender fraud, Transnet later stated that Abalozi had neither the employees nor the skills or resources to undertake the security work required and had in contravention to the agreement sub-contracted the work out to other CPRA Daily Briefing, Tuesday, 7 August 2012 1 agencies. Transnet alleged that the required services were never provided and started litigation under the Public Finance Management Act (PFMA) to recover the money. Surprisingly, even though Gama was fired for this incident, the ANC rallied to support him and he was reinstated to his position in April 2011. The legal case was withdrawn a week before it was due to start in court with Transnet spokesperson Mboniso Sigonyela saying, ‘A decision has been taken to allow parties to complete the discovery process and the exchange of documents.’ As Carol Paton highlighted in the same newspaper, the state has been unable to use the PFMA to act against corruption and misappropriation. To date there has not been a conviction of a politically connected person in terms of this act since its promulgation in 2000. It is therefore not surprising that as much as R30 billion is lost due to corruption in SA government procurement each year. Speaking truth to power Former President of Ireland, member of ‘the Group of Elders’ and current Commissioner of UN Commission on Human Rights Mary Robinson was the keynote speaker at the 10th Annual Mandela Lecture last week in Cape Town. A long-standing friend of South Africa and an anti- apartheid activist, Robinson stated that she felt slightly daunted about giving the lecture as she saw her challenge being ‘to speak to you, South Africans, as your friend. A true friend tells you not only what you want to hear but what you need to hear.’ She recognised that the ANC had managed remarkable achievements in its hundred years of existence, ‘from the defiance campaign, the resistance movement, armed struggle, banishment, to becoming the governing political party since 1994, leading the way in transforming the country’. However, she stated, ‘Sadly, though, in recent years my South African friends tell me the ANC’s moral authority has been eroded, tainted by allegations of corruption; a temporary betrayal of its history.’ After pointing out the various paradoxes that characterise South Africa, she ended with the plea, ‘Your admirable constitution opens with stirring words: “We, the people of South Africa … believe that South Africa belongs to all who live in it, united in our diversity.” As you approach your early twenties – and you are a young democratic country in that sense – you have a great opportunity to draw on your strengths, renew that inspirational vision that the world stood in admiration of in 1994, and continue to build your rainbow nation, block by block.’ Let’s hope that the ruling elite, as well as all South Africans, were taking notes. The End CPRA Daily Briefing, Tuesday, 7 August 2012 2 .