Fortress Kaliningrad Ev er closer to Moscow
OSW Team WS AR AW OCTOBER 2019
Fortress Kaliningrad Ever closer to Moscow
OSW Team © Copyright by Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia / Centre for Eastern Studies
Authors Maria Domańska, Szymon Kardaś, Marek Menkiszak, Jadwiga Rogoża, Andrzej Wilk, Iwona Wiśniewska, Piotr Żochowski
Content editor Adam Eberhardt, Marek Menkiszak, Wojciech Stanisławski
Editor Halina Kowalczyk
Co-operation Anna Łabuszewska, Szymon Sztyk
TRANSLATION OSW
Co-operation Nicholas Furnival
MAPS and charTs Urszula Gumińska-Kurek, Wojciech Mańkowski
Graphic design Para-buch
PHOTOGRAPH ON COVER Cinemavue/Shutterstock.com
DTP GroupMedia
Publisher Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia Centre for Eastern Studies ul. Koszykowa 6a, Warsaw, Poland Phone: /+ 48/ 22 525 80 00 Fax: /+ 48/ 22 525 80 40 www.osw.waw.pl
ISBN 978-83-65827-43-2 C ontents
MAIN POINTS /5
Introduction /10
I. Political and social situation and internal policy /13 1. The political situation: balance of power in the regional elite /13 2. Political opposition and repression /20 3. Public sentiments and social activity /22 4. Regional identity and the so-called Germanisation problem /25
II. Economic situation and policy in the Kaliningrad Oblast /30 1. Social and economic situation /30 2. The Kaliningrad Oblast in the economic policy of Moscow /34
III. The Kaliningrad Oblast and its external environment /52 1. Cross-border political relations /52 2. Cross-border travel /58 3. Economic relations /60
IV. Security and defence situation and policy in the Kaliningrad Oblast /67 1. Situation within the security institutions and their activities /67 2. Military situation in the Kaliningrad Oblast /71
Conclusion: outlook /80
APPENDICES /83 • • • • POINTSMAIN o o tiatives crease, o n cial mote cluding p s r c m i a s M a b al come i c gion’s entiment Public mproved The A o nton 017 In Moscow’s i s O p ts nto n imilar ince uppress egion onsistent lash ctivity. f nd r n blast een erformance, olitical ot blast likhanov’s
ade
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7 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 8 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 Map 1. Map Kaliningrad in Europe Lisbon DublinDublin Madrid London Paris Brussels Luxembourg Amsterdam
2838 km Bern
1414 km Oslo
Copenhagen
Rome 1163 km Berlin
Ljubljana
Prague 819 km 819 Vienna Stockholm
Zagreb 526 km
1538 km Sarajevo
Bratislava
Podgorica 534 km 534 Budapest Belgrade Tirana
Warsaw Kaliningrad 279 km 279
663 km Prisztina Skopje
Gdańsk 468 km 468 832 km Vilnius
Sofia Bukareszt km 829 Baltic Sea Ateny Minsk Kiszyniów POLAND
1097 km St. Petersburg Kaliningrad Kyiv Klaipeda RUSSIA Ankara LATVIA Moscow LITHUANIA Kaunas Riga Lisbon DublinDublin Madrid London Paris Brussels Luxembourg Amsterdam
2838 km Bern
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Rome 1163 km Berlin
Ljubljana
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Warsaw Kaliningrad 279 km 279
663 km Prisztina Skopje
310 km Riga Helsinki Tallinn
Gdańsk 468 km 468 832 km Vilnius
Sofia Bukareszt km 829 Baltic Sea Ateny Minsk Kiszyniów POLAND
1097 km St. Petersburg Kaliningrad Kyiv Klaipeda RUSSIA Ankara LATVIA Moscow LITHUANIA Kaunas Riga
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n 10 September 2017, Anton Alikhanov, who had been acting as the re- the as acting been had who Alikhanov, 2017,Anton September 10 n
tor of the Department for the Regulation of Foreign (among Co-operation Regulation for the Department tor of the direc the as where he served Trade and of Industry 2013 Ministry –at the in of and Justice, Ministry working at the started 2010In Alikhanov Anton of economic development. minister deputy current Volga and the in District Federal plenipotentiary former president’s –the Babich opment VB.RF, Mikhail Corporation and of State Devel chairman current of Russia, minister prime former deputy Igor with Shuvalov friends is –the Alikhanov Andrey 20% shares. of the of Rosmyasomoltorg, he foodholds company processing which alarge in one founders of was the Andrey He father family. comes His awealthy from ASSR). holdseconomics. in aPhD and He alawyer is (Abkhazian Sukhumi in 1986 in born was Oblast, governor Kaliningrad the of the Alikhanov, Anton G qualitative
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13 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 14 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 p 1 model governance region’s political the ify From the Alikhanov’s start, role in Oblast the has been Kaliningrad to mod ed a Th t
he nd olitical ing of votes in the Kaliningrad region were ‘massive’ region ‘catastrophic’. and Kaliningrad ofing votes the in count the of violations during procedures Russia, in elections monitors the which independentorganisation Golos, to According the of Kaliningrad. region’s the in high, city very capital lowest, still though the was of 76.24% ofover slightly 39%). result turnout official Alikhanov’s asimilar 2015 with won in predecessor 70.4% Tsukanov (his Oblast Kaliningrad of the history the in won victory officially the81% record-breaking –a vote of Alikhanov Party. GreenEcological Russian TimofeyevaYekaterina marginal of the and of Russia, Party Democratic Liberal the representing MP a regional Yevgeny parliament, regional of Mishin, the member aCommunist Revin, Igor competed, including candidates technical only him, from Apart gion. re opposition the in opposition’, actual of‘licensed the weakness the and of the voting), and part cooperation on the tive control campaign over the (administra resource administrative so-called of use the traditional the to problems, proceeded any without thanks campaign competitors, the and no real had 2017, on 10 September elections Alikhanov gubernatorial the In history. governor youngest recent Russian in the regional came be reinstated). Alikhanov government was regional the heads region the head of the which in model traditional the time, (at region same grad the governor Kalinin of of acting the function the with Alikhanov entrusted governor). headed by the was Putin 2016, 6October PresidentVladimir On government governor Tsukanov, previous regional of the Nikolai the term newly governor then appointed Yevgenyby acting the (during the Zinichev for him especially restored was aposition region, that of the minister prime later, ayear of acting on 30July 2016, function promotedthan he the to was industry). Less and of agriculture (in charge Oblast Kaliningrad ofter the posts). 2015 minis other appointed September prime 22 he deputy On was
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A dismissals of the heads of several municipal dis municipal of several heads of the dismissals egion,
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15 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 16 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 tion o S p or. is not a political player political a not is a h um A e Yaroshuk mayor Alexander liningrad cepted mise. kanov t powers, their of some of stripped were authorities municipal as v litical t a sign A p t c Meanwhile, w m R cil. a t liningrad llegations t s (with t rend” he he he he he ome ontrol ntrepreneur, bolishing f nd lso tate lenipotentiary residential isibly imself ussian ccording likhanov’s ithin
ayor t
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ity’s
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egional the w
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nly
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imself
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likhanov,
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andate, m h owers Y m K he new mayor Alexei Silanov Silanov mayorAlexei new he
ay
as e c w f A e i aroshuk
ore
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likhanov,
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eakened
rovided e
general
w m t t o
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ogorsk ( m shuffle n ill The ter tion pursued a balanced appointments policy appointments balanced a pursued A S o ingrad gional c j grad nors i s i a r i In ing regional elite elite regional A t cial a W p i r ated p t ustified. s s s mportant on imes he moothly egion egional ontrol
chieve f vetly rime rime s he stepped up control of the regional elite, Alikhanov has nonetheless nonetheless has elite,Alikhanov regional up control ofthe stepped he s
likhanov has probably been so careful in navigating way in among his the probably careful so has been likhanov m
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17 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 18 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 nanced a tor a s w t ance ing 2 ood a Putin’s u h ous Experts gional бработки he chedule). ttract n nd ere seful country (62.3%country vs. 67.54%). whole the in than Oblast Kaliningrad lower slightly the out in 2018 was in averagenational higher (63.6%). significantly vote) the turn The against (the second-worstoblast Moscow where he won after 47.72% result of the when 2012 he in won vote 52.55% only the of in the than much better and average Russian (76.35% the to country) cal the 76.69% to compared across almost identi was Oblast Kaliningrad the in Putin’s result official Vladimir P in the ranking of the regional heads of the Northwestern Federal District District Federal Northwestern of heads the regional of the ranking the in (second) high ranks he still weakened, position has Alikhanov’s though 2018, al September group’s in announced expert ko Consulting ranking Alikhanov ranked 15 ranked Alikhanov Economic Agency APEK, and Communication Political Kremlin-based 2019the by in January prepared Ranking, Governors’Influence the In rankings governor in Alikhanov hich
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usinessmen, Two tasked his he nd re utin’s odokanal ernors (from 13 (from ernors to gov other in comparison deteriorated position significantly Alikhanov’s 2018 networks, in social agency, and media analyses monitors and which the Medialogia to According Alikhanov. with dissatisfied increasingly ing becomis elite regional the that may indicate which conflict, tra-regional in agrowing is there out points category. that management” The ranking “quality of the political in points agement” out two categoryof and three tin’s category, support” four outthe of fivein “majorpoints man project gubernatorial elections in the Kaliningrad Oblast. Kaliningrad the in elections gubernatorial 2017, in of year the the than media the less in been active he has because partly is This networks. mentioned social in mostfrequently heads gional (10 inister e 13 у в ‘Рейтинг R tion i
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or- fo he g- rt - ,
25 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 26 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 ‘ f t describing a – Rus- sia of rest the from distinct being to admit Kaliningrad of people The a gion has been the object of specific ideological and propaganda efforts, efforts, propaganda and ideological specific of object the been has gion re- the importance, geopolitical its of Because Oblast. Kaliningrad the in situation economic and political the of Moscow’sperception influencing Thisthepersistent sense oblast’sresidents have ofhas beingbeen distinct a o tion bourhood a s a evenly t dition r m o o r c identity ofbut gional it formpart they important an References to the region’s pre-war may history not be dominant in the re- a tural influence of Germany of influence tural cul- increased the aboutgovernment, the by raised sometimes concerns, ry’ r m G friendly, ollowing han nobbery he positive and negativeof the region’saspects location were distributed egion’s egion’s espondents, athedral f f nyone’ nd n mber re pportunities, ny ermany’.
onument any r
Kö
o (11%)
eference,
i
pen way. a n f
e nigsberg
9 rom
tourist
o lsewhere f
6% o e : avour pportunities
n
xtraction, (3%). c r q or 1
apital
esidents
5%
uestion
o a t b d o t w
hem.
pen bout he
‘little t M elieve escriptions: f o hemselves,
here
t
f o
brand. ost b he
o w r
f K
ut
f i
est
1 a hile
c s r
aliningrad.
‘ 6% i m E
Germanness’, Th nd
ity, espondents
n Europe’ r
r a I uropean a
t
espondents aintaining
mmanuel ather
w o lso R hat bout 5
e
t h f
8
0% ussia’ ho
hink t
p ospitable a R 6% he
henomenon
s s ussia, t
mall, a
heir t ‘ t
p t
people i a re o he s he
nhabitants roblems,
(9%), s
aid
i
t (
t
U 4%),
a he i
i
r Th n
g nion,
r nhabitants
K egion’s k
a b enerates b
egion t
t
or f
r
ind nd
elieve ant hey he ( w p ut e residents of Kaliningrad did not share the the share not did Kaliningrad of residents e and avour
egion’s
53%) w b eople’
hich attempts
ut ith c 2 n
3
o i urrent
w d 1% a ot
some s
4% f i
a nd id d
s
as a
f c b lso
u t
o i istinctive olklore, m
t
hose d
hat
s
uried ( E nequivocally f t
l n m o
13%),
ocation 23 ifferent
o o t
uropean arginal
r ot o
‘ reated t bserved,
ore even abandoned estoring t f he
% he n
at t
e
K he p ame.
xperience
s
aliningrad
imposing u hrases t ‘ p u ay people o
nique roblems, said a o nique
b s
n o blast’s
f c a i
e rom n ot t w haracteristics, Th m t
i
K
d t t ell ‘Russian
n 1 entality s
he us, he oes
s
2%, aliningrad’s
o
n w c h p uch v
o onsidered m ature.
a
eople’ istory,
arying
hose
B German m l ther i
t s ocation
t. 4 n uch m altic here
w ost
a
0% ot . a Th
ost hile W s s
l ynonym
a R a ‘ Europe’
e a
ifestyle i a
a hen
Th
t nd S
ffect
2 mportant ussian
i s
o hink nd d p s
c
ea, 2% a ften 8
egrees, ercentage ity e culture r
g
n
1% l
5
ather t enerates ifestyle’ ‘ p p d
not he
i 0% t 4
re-war escribing erceptions t dentity w o
2% heir t o s
here t i or ith elected r f f
P s he n p
or egions.
r rotestant
t d
ointed a eeded b
‘Russian
esidents o
and
h
ifferent a s l y q k
ives
epara- n
istoric
(
a uality
h ind o
n 9 p 22%), m eigh- re f isto- % ame
oint
tra
t t t ore
b
he he he I a i t o o o n n y o s - f f f
‘ history and identity about debate public gional t it counter to need the and ‘Germanisation’ alleged The decision-makers involved content policy.the of detailed onthis the among unanimity no is There policy. historical of field the in including w grad sign w heritage German the ignore or obliterate to tendency clear a is a ment B a y t t t 2016 of dia and a tion tives manisation” media campaign was a personal initiative of Dolgachov and and Dolgachov of initiative personal a was campaign media manisation” Th tures t w t opposition s ( The man patriotic GRH) he he he he he he tructures ctions outh nd lleged efore 2016, there was relatively little discussion about ‘Germanisation’ ‘Germanisation’ about discussion little relatively was there 2016,efore orking ith ith ere are many indications that the intensification of the “anti-Ger- the of intensification the that indications many are ere
o
R t r l G
n A
e m
w t argest wo
utlets. egional historic
l
egnum a t o on-governmental xploited he a erman in
ll-Russian imited he
ost ere: e s f ctivities (
,
xchange
aimed the
t
‘ Kö March c
o Germanisers’ w
w he
e ities rganisation o c
hen
xception ith
nigsberg, t p
f ommunities’
o
s he Th
o i rogrammes.
f i
ntelligentsia b tate-owned a
r t nly
h monuments t
ranch G each gency,
b
o w he eritage e anti-Germanisers became much more active in the spring at
K N
f f 2016, y erman or
as
aliningrad-based
ikolai Dolgachov ikolai t
t
S e.g. o t G rips he
he tate ne
t
erman c i
he
n o onnected
o
o
protecting although w D a f
f
o t t
rganisation’s
t
G rmy i
he I pa he olgachov t f
T hile o n ( mmanuel he
o erman
the
elevision i
G g rganisation I
ts rtners m
ev
s r
n
athered a m in ermany V tatus egion
a edia
nd
t ery A k GTRK inority nd ‘
he fifth the ind ugust
w it
t
s
he
t c
d w
pecial ith h o German
u he continues
( riticism region. imension) are permanent topics in the re i
f
including olding). nleashed ithin
K
n
c a b
o c a
a
t
olumn’). s 2
t ant n nd roadcast b pposition ultural
i hat round R ‘ he pecial
n 018, ame foreign ecame Z ussia
t s elenogradsk-Pinneberg
R
t he r ervices. a i he epeated t adio
nd
i architecture.
w t
s o T R
to ince
f
b
s rganised s
as ogether a
ussian i t ramework
t h ervices.
t everal
roadcast nstitution hat a
A he a
he work d
is
B gent’ c n l mong efamation imited
alling roadcasting
umber
R t A l
c
egacy), he w i egnum hief fter nitiatives
as
F
on
i
p b ederation), t
w
, A w
ro-Kremlin
eginning t
d a
n a f
an hose a ith o
t the official level there there level official the t t or
ere ttempts o issolved o
ot p rtificially f o G
f f
d
rogramme
t a
informal
erman-Russian
a a
s t espite he c A s
gency),
everal he nti-German p pa
ubject ampaign
ndrey Vypolzov ndrey
t resented
t (i.e. C argeted r
o rtnership p ompany egional
rotection r
o w
w i a
ename ts f
t
t
ere nd hich
he
‘ t he m a
patriotic’ s t
o he basis. o toked nd
fficial
d edia
r
p a m
m t
iscrediting epresenta- b a
1
gainst
he retence b p
990s.
h s y ade
emory ( a (
K ranch b romoted
perhaps VGTRK,
ad nd
r
etween
t o alinin- o o
ecruit
b H he s f fficial
utlets
t y
truc a b ouse
o G
m
nti- Th een
t t a er- a
he he e- o of o o c- s e - - - - f f f
27 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 28 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 a tions m authorities regional the of interests the with in fit necessarily not do fortress’, ‘besieged a as Russia of image promoted Th s w s a w Oblast Kaliningrad the in ism hooligan- of acts commit Germanisation’ ‘opponentsof the Occasionally, b A w a Kremlin the of interests cal politi- the and Oblast Kaliningrad the in strategy their with line in was and services secret the by supported however was which but Vypolzov nic filiated a n t manisation” P l tures i H . interests service secret and economic political, Russian further to order in ‘Germanness’ of concept the priate appro- to seek also they – ‘Germanisers’ of attempts the against identity’ Russian ‘protecting at only not aim They services. and authorities sian i Th ed tself n hings ites ymbols gainst
nd rrival usiness utin’s arrative part ouse t ere hen as edia
e O raitor, e aggressive ‘anti-Germanisation’ efforts, consistent with the Kremlin- the with consistent efforts, ‘anti-Germanisation’ aggressive e
b
G
ctober s c a
y
ermans trengthen h
d ase w to
llegedly
t
o
f G efaced ave c
he
(
rom ith
f w e
i w ampaign GRH), be “ enrikh
n
lection
o Germanisation”
t contacts hich
o
a ith
K r he
K o
f
G a n used
2 c
ant f
aliningrad, lso t c ermany
017,
alls
e
he a o
t ultural F l (
nemy he
c iving f covered ederal c
t
“
m
arrying
t
his t losed powerful M
i as c G i t aken
he ts
t onument o M h ampaigns.
RH
artens, between
w
as a
o i
inistry
mage l
K
i verthrow
as tool ed a
a n
a aliningrad a
nd i i nd N
p ctivities
s n R w lso
r
lace
ational o t eopened
a ussia.
a
ith o in 2 s ut a
a b
w 017 trive t i
b c
w G nformation s
he i
ranch
o a lear een
Russian
n a ho
pa
a w erman. f
M as ctivities provocation
n K
D ( B
hereby
t int). Th .
there
i artens
aliningrad, he
a i t
ARS efence) n c a t A t i o ttractive
he riticised
ndication nd
a e O
.
i t lready
i o R s s
he One mprove
m blast, f L
ussian
a
n
and fi
t eaflets C c P ission n
a
ow he
pa
ase nal t ultural rovocations t h re
o
e
he e w w as
ntity st
e
A
xample German i t
p m
ar
as
radicate n w against
asked t b
cademy c s
w
o ointing S g
ourist
t
rackdown
y h upposed any o o
w M as
penly he hortly overnment o i as
f f is
t n
ere
s pened arch
t he A t
u ubordinated
i he t a
t he real objectives of the Rus- the of objectives real he nvestment ombstone utonomy
sed i he
ctive
w ndications
o r
s
d
entrepreneurs. the n
f
egional cattered
s
ith R
o
t estination. t
a 2 poken ew
r t o argeting f
ussian i fter 016, his egion”, i
‘
nstrumentally. G Germanisers’
who n
t
management ( p
he o
as eopolitical G t
romoting
o n
his w RH
t
n
i
he a
“
.e.
o as t r care a o
Russianness”
d
c a f he t epresentation i
nd ut
t
limate dentity. efaced rustee) c
h i round, t
c o b R n i R ity, hat as
losure
n
efore
ussian a t
Th ussian G m
w
he about gainst
N erman-Russian b
emorial e hich
p B
ovember een e
P o romoting a
ARS conomic i m
fficial roblems c of nti-German n p i
D
I o alling n
onuments.
O
laced
n t olgachov’s
good e
f G m the
G he t
V
ne xtended.
t t he ermans, ermany a emorial he he ladimir
o p llowed
r
s
GRH). o o f egion laque “
truc- K
rela f G fi N f 2 Ger-
e
a ( 018 t ant ght t t RH th- azi af- nd he he he -
t velopment a b w o t t t nor o business interest of groups with links to the region’s authoritiesthe to links with groups of interest business specific by influenced itis likely Most ambiguous. also heritage is torical his- post-German Kaliningrad’s of protection better for demands the on liningrad authorities Kaliningrad the of positions cial a of propaganda campaign campaign propaganda of l 16 f Ministry kanov obbying o imes. hem he t
ctively f f een hich
t t r h ‘Региональное к
he he
ebuild istorical m их A
r likhanov
into
edieval
l c enovated),
НКО’ b H ong s ivil
upporters efore owever, c
f o
ountering
O or the t
, d he c s
blast’s F RuGrad.EU,
ociety
lash ecaying R h oreign
h R tourist ussian o eritage
im, ld oyal h
п
as w h редставительство
a G
G
prove they wish to distance themselves from this kind kind this from themselves distance to wish they prove e nd o
l ith erman
s evel)
A ermanisation f
h C topped t H
g
and a ffairs his as i
astle
s 2.06.2016. eopolitical ouse n ad
ites d
F d
emolition vocates o
k ebruary eclared recreational
n
r
ind
w o i ailway
o
(Alikhanov n a t f f as he
ll
t S
K he
o
oviets, s
aliningrad, a f f peculation
uture
nnounced. o
R a М
i ( w f
2
nitiative. nd already ussian s
t ИД 018 r tations as hat enovating
b
Р b
‘ urban
made usiness o
a
Ф uilt w s f n
aid о
G F ould
публиковало
a
ederation, i
erman
( ction n a
o o so
A
Th
bout n
u i pting space. N n
p’),
d f
t f i
psto o te authorities the of position e , ovember t ar he nterests ree ebate 2
hese i
ncluding 016 p
a
t
t p
lan r he lthough
he i uins ost-industrial u nstead
16 p t
z
i p s hat з as hich t
ones s w аявление tation o a ossibility
a ttractive
i o c 2 n
lso ompile f
016) t A
he G
t t f a he likhanov or hey
ermany. g
nd h
i oing
i n
h ssue c t
в
he astle P is i h
з
ncorporating o b a ionersky
ave p ащиту
b f
n een
w lots
c o
uildings r
o ompletion n i illingness ebuilding
nventory
f
i Th a n
n . ( a
t nd ot mainly f Gover
ctively he
S н or e offi e
емец oviet
b T
een h K d su
as i e- a- n - - -
29 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 30 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 I o gional o b f b itive l f i F e i O i i t eins rwh ae s el s ot f h mcocnmc indicators macroeconomic average Russian the than the better much havebeen of most as well as rate growth region’s the and years, three last the for growing been has economy oblast’s the g ( 17 conomic d The economic and ocial situation NOMI 1. II. ingrad uted L evel t mplementation nformation n nvestments, ootball ootball significant he Macroeconomic xpansion f f as uild eing evelopment IFA NG
blast.
s S regional the t eration), hould
he
s c e
E K upply onstruction t i o t W
mpact
erminal, a
o expanded long
f c e
b a
O orld f They
c nergy t udget stadium, ederal s o his, blast, ultural
l tadium, b
and
e o run v i finances.
C
f c
ia ning
o s n may
i up ompared o w a
ncluding n ee Rosstat,
oted a
s i f
t n
b f t
nfrastructure, hich will
s ituation his t t
unding
he
ut
m and ( he C i he a c
o
ndicators o by
whose even entre irport f hapter a
atches.
f
i
i
c
r t nd
2 t s r nvestment not
a
hat oute h
p
r ituation
022,
egional i modernised.
Kaliningrad s fl roviding ad sit
a t
t oating turn d
i become he fl he i
i t n oubtful a costs w
n
n d
owing he
w I
a m
p H
I.2.2)
pa hich re u K r t o ill Obl ositive
ay
owever, he oad blast’s out
f aliningrad,
q a e rticular i ederal
uoted n g
conomy L
of
p
e t enerate K tion
h NG
t
w he rove a office i
mployment to
a n he w aliningrad as 70 nto
nd driver as etwork
a
hether
be i
f
c
t s i mpact w million rom
erminal ncreased
onstruction st ize) n a
i . t t m
t hole o a uthorities he t ecessary
s
he
i
uch t
burden s n hould an R he
ignificant of f f osstat w
ederal or t
i
i t o o he
n nflux hich he
revenue r f
n m
a
egion,
O a d R i
t
o nfrastructure t year
ore
nd y he
ussia. t blast t b he (the n
erminal
ears he for f
po e
w
or
t
a b
c r
o n r he o d
ontracts re egion
udget. e ill statistical f egion’s
f will oted
w ifficult the t
c nergy
l i
f he growth t
a
osts
B A s ederal hich o t c
.
i altic rying 17
f ost c fterthe collapse of 2015,
c c
ootball region. o
actors everal be losely
t S ome.
w rganisation
a
hat y f Th
or nd e ill i
t s shouldered
f s
wice c conomy ecurity f office
rom in
e
or f
oast,
l for t
G s b p
ikely unds
r o
Th s ome e rojects, d azprom
egional
ituation l In s
ocal m
ependent
u
the
t tadium ere f of t a
sed.
he aintain t the s
h the he t o
t
o o
m
o d Kaliningrad
f c a p
f
e
uring h
o
ompanies), t
re
uch Russian t case e erspective
I t
he
f i by ave he f ( p xpansion he
ncluding
for w
t c i p orts a
he t ontrib-
f
lans ith the
nd r o a K ederal
a i a
of egion
s,
n m
t s alin-
2 h p heir
Fed
018 t t t t t the a ore igh os- - re
he he he he he re t o -
tion t tion, cial c b b t 13 t – t est a ticular i I o dition, nomic In Source: -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 construction and output output, industrial and Oblast agricultural product of Kaliningrad Gross 1. regional art C sumer [% y/y] 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 n n he he han he urrent
f udget enefited 0 h r h
%,
i ad t esult, a
as
nterest he
c r c
s
Economic
h s
ar egion
r tate entral has
-8.8 5 ituation as Rosstat r espectively,
r 0% s
ecorded d since t egion m ituation
Industrial output
l o emand b -2.5
t evel taken 2015
fi
anufacturers
he een 10.2 f
t i
( rom nancial n
he r accounting
ba t
ates
A 2016 he
2
d
i a
vtotor nk, i o Zone 017 ncreased 10.4 ue
ssociated ncrease
steps
f a b
a b o
d efore f vailability f y d
alling t as
ue a c i t
ynamic o n t s he oncerned
nd
(see
aking upport l
compensation
p oans t leading t
hose o
r lant t
a
1.4
f
egion he
i
i
l or round b
below). r n n ow w eal y
w s a c R
o ith
2016 i l
y -4.9 a 2.2 ales
ocated ncrease hanges round 50% ut t o ussia i ill
bout ears).
he
nflation i to f i
a ncomes,
n
r
ba
ba bout 4 b ising
a
t c 0% o However, e 5.8 he
nk ompany
nk tightening
n
2 v a
Agricultural output
A
i 5%,
for ery nd
t i l n
i t
l vtotor’s ast n i he l l n oans he
n
oans oan t
a
t
he the t
K
2 nd s p he o
d
he a t ee 018, e f roduction aliningrad 2.8 wo ifficult. utomotive
xcessive
i K t
h
h f
nterest l abolition maintaining he ( l C enient unctioning aliningrad as as argest in
y
hart r of 2017 w
ears, 0.3 o esults
2.4 h b 2
blast’s ith banks’ ad een 018
O
2 25.0
r
ba n s a i
), r m
ate
i ndebtedness
ales
eflecting
t a n
r of p r h t w anufacturing he nk
eceiving nd esidents he
ositive m ave
t
hich credit the
p O he o
anufacturing
domestic v rices, i l f blast o m ending ncreasing
olume
ne t i
l 3.1 customs mproved ortgage he ast
c
h ontributed
i policies. t
mpact Construction
K
– he and, a m f t 9.1
rom nd 3.6 aliningrad wo
o 2018
o aintained
r o ne a
f demand equirements.
f ttractiveness
o
p m y
r c 43.0 privileges
t n
b
o t ising rivate ompany ears o a he arkets. he y f
n t lso i
he ndustry) t
1 t he
p
2% f he i
opula-
[% GRP] ederal d n
( o i
more
ue
at ther, l nfla-
S c d pa e arg- -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 a on-
pe- 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 ebt co-
nd
A its i t
r- it n o s
31 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 32 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 o sian r w t liningrad r tectionist t s i [RUB billion] m p Inflation S as increased Oblast Kaliningrad the in production gricultural 018, 9%) (by well In Source: in change %) annual dayand ofof first as year of roubles, (in billions Oblast Kaliningrad debt the levels in Personal 2. Chart t f ingrad Oblast remains below the Russian average Russian the below remains Oblast ingrad Despite 1 100 125 -25 n or 0% he he he 25 50 75 ector, eal egional ther pecial rices 0 ages uch
t 2
he R r region o
(despite i ate a ussia blast ncomes
verage. Central Bank of Russia Bank Central
r h s
b h egions, i
ocio-economic
igher
Economic y n p
ave o
a p
ositive
f i
1.01.2016 4
pa in
s n roduct
r -3 i ( has .6%. tate nflation), ose 4.3%),
67.4
b t
rticular 32 state
.
he een h t
P
S han
been ave nd eople’s h
b
Th
everal p
y r as m
olicy position
egion p
r
w o e Zone. intervention).
acroeconomic
er capita er ising b t
ver n
i ith he steadily een
ncrease ot
p a
rotection s nd,
r a
f
g
3 tandard i p anking actors i nd
mproved eneral 5% c i n rices n
onstantly
among
a
2 c
bove t 1.01.2017 i i 018 ounter-sanctions), he
n n
falling i 68.7
n
2 2 o 2 t c
r i
f o he 018,
ontributed
t g nflation
o a egion a f he i
rew t all
f gainst ndustrial ll, R
a
rends, K l fter
ussian
iving
p
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xtensive
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igher t
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tandard of living in the Kalin- the in livingof tandard f 79.9 p
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or Russia. or
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[% y/y]
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ood Ka t t us- his ro- eal -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
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t c p a Ch 1 S -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 h t m o [RUB thousands] 8 10 20 30 40 50 r o h a n
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y
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A Real incomesas%ofpreviousy A i t i d d e r at л g v c v
e o erage realw e i erage salar y f e ь i
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t
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i
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3
3 PORSAWC REE OPSOWR T 0 910/2/0210219 34 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 f t tures i t e The its neighbours. eration with location to derive economic benefits forthe region and from Russia coop special its advantageof other,taking the on and instrument, policy eign for-a as it using NATOand neighbours and European its from region the isolating hand, one the on between, balance a find to strives it that Oblast It is a feature permanent of the Kremlin’s policy the Kaliningrad towards ( a tin’s ration tions ing o m h p c t a On region. the in spending federal in increase an in resulted has which it, with engage to will political the shows and region the in ested visiblyinter is Kremlin The consistent.coherentcome increasingly and be- has Oblast few Moscow’s years Kaliningrad last the In towards policy economic the in Oblast policy ofhe Moscow Kaliningrad 2. ncluding oreign-registered Stroytransgaz). he he he ontrol, fficacy f nd n ublic as
any T
M
e
n last t c g b t
i lement he f oscow’s ountry, ew mportance
he
rowing ecome riends a
a
o fi R nd nd
ligarchs
few
o nances i ostec, r e o n ne ules
ffectiveness
ver t t
l he p he imited
years o ursuing
h
a A w
p
a f
o d
f and, t
rkady ctivity s olicy, or G t hich rganisation he evelopment
ource he b
azprom, i o
y t n
f in
he
r
r companies K o f egions, M P
educing a
ederal-level pportunities
remlin’s
the resident i t R s
ims
oscow’s ts he o pecial
o otenberg f o f
m
f
t implementation fi
K
he t R ain p nancing o
aliningrad
ussian o ublic o w
i
f K f e c ncrease
hile
m orruption-generating conomic
r t p P remlin g moving he egional olicy rowing utin’s atches
(
c Stroygazmontazh)
s r
orporations a t R pending. egion’s
o t a ailways
o nd t
e
t i i
he bjectives
arn he n
their o nner O z
p
f i one
blast a
t olicy nterest
t s of
he c
he
e w ame entre’s i lectricity
ncome
several
a
ay operations c
K a 2 H nd
ircle
nd 018 h aliningrad
b
owever, s
t t h as eing
uch o
t ime
ave i he
c
n
e F c
ompanies
s i
xpand ontrol, IFA
a
een n
major t c
a
broad, m
m i he a t
a reation s mplemented r ightening nd nd
echanisms ecent
anifested
t
W
to he d t K
he
ue orld t G
O
aliningrad the
ransport investment
p i s ennady
blast
ncluding
ersonal tate-owned p
g
t o y c ublic
o rowing C region. f ontrolled ears.
a up, W
t ‘ a t tax he
hemselves estern nd a
a
T t
i nd
i A s nvestment hroughout
w nfrastruc-
imchenko
s h
e M s w r
p ystem ealth
projects, conomic aven’
i egion resence a ncreas ell oscow’s
c b
r orpo s y
esult a anc
s P
f f
u or or i i o i n n s ------f
o t ev c o emptions ment n e nesses cline K w t cluded: efited ducing Th w i c eral c b l t lems, ing 21 20 19 ts o r Economic of Special for the functioning Zoneew rules the Due mportant 2.1. ost The aws, nvestors. han he he egion orporation ompensation ustoms See: nformation No ight nly n illion) umber See: remlin. as ith entually e
though 2
ba
m r
f c the 006
financial t N
unctioning
egional
3 hanges 19
s
6 R o i
t a
rriers 0%. pecial een ave f
Администрация Министерство 0% hreshold f
ussian w h i h
rom
t
s
purpose t t
he as of mall ere
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i
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xchange
uty I o
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entities b n s
nique c l f urned t s
ompensate
l t
osses
A
een Avtotor, e b
ompleted
ocal h
i pa a he a f e
entities
ligible). ntroduced
i unds: support r indering
ll conomy r nternal m r
egions rticular,
eductions
i esult, i
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o s easures behind o
tate f
e
udget a perating g t c f
i
remained conomy vailable R
ncurred
eographical hange to r
t
финансов m UB i ates). he
n
which
registered
O which s Особой
i
easures i
for i n n upport,
m 2 b
n n i b 1 S r
018
y ts s the
50 w s
2
usinesses evenues, arket pecial Economic Zone (SEZ) Zone Economic pecial
r
t
ince
o 2
ince o
the 017 o he
esulted p f hich n
H e 016, ut, at o or a n
romoting
conomic m
b t cashed
n i introduction, nd owever,
экономической
exemptions he a t o Калининградской
s y
region
K
illion
K s ther 2 everal similar t w
t 2
a
a
t aken pecial a aliningrad hough, 016 f t m aliningrad l 006 he mount
nd as ederal ocation, he nd in ade
i
w
n h 5 R
t the
f t f in
i f
he or 5
h
ederal he
hile and, b ts ussian
or level a and d
a
o
ave t l y
o e
b evelopment, s 80%
arge, ccasions s
he
f
f conomic
t fi m o zone
illion
r d M ignificant ederal c t he nly
esidents
nancial
ompensation
ependence he
s as ba
thus ain were t oscow S b
ince hey
in
зоны O EZ een a of in
r
ck a
b
K m bolition esidents a blast (initially,
uthorities
2006,
udget b 2016 r
remlin all
области
its ostly f
m
oubles h eneficiary i
b granted, t
ew a n
d в
he ave udget p w ore
imed,
a the
uring
Калининградской financial 2 rinciples and
(
ssistance
j i ith
around 015 oined
r b
ncrease
of
r
a
b esidents p f eginning
a
o elated
funds.
s ederal,
ayments
2017. een o
ttractive 2019 g n r a i
(
h
f n approximately a egards several radually i o
high , as t t i
t
t n
and r
mports. he
a ried ariffs
l t
t . a esult
aid
w
his t he p
p U
w he
dependence a t rovided 21
i l as rocess a
S$ o ast n minimum imed
t
thus ay
e
ccounts
n o o
d t
fi nterprises. t
o t o
t
f o
A arrow
t o thousand own ransport p a
o ne he
5 gure f
o
he
vtotor t
t
a lso f p rivileges. t
t f he wenty b Th
he bolished
he revent
centralising
c l
a области h l
illion imiting a evel ustoms w t
e and,
t t utomobile z
i
r o 1 o he
h n hich
one i egion r 990s f g
vercom
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U or s ules
roup f
invest
20
maller r o ederal
on S$
y
ba
p
egion a f
m busi a
ears.
b 18,
b
2019 t rob
Th
w f
een Th
sed en t t the t ore d 0 ed e r f i
he he he a n- or as x e e o .8 is l e ------. f -
35 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 36 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 s c a n o C ists 22 V i t t 2018 January 1 on introduced hanges t The Source: Oblast’s budget revenues expenditures and Kaliningrad 4. Chart operation pa S o troduced s a pa 120 150 ntroduced o hreshold he 30 60 90 econd-largest ix ompanies. wned nd f fter EZ Администрация umber AT). hanges 0
y y p 1
y
r referential Other financial support fromthefederalbudget Other financialsupport Direct revenues (taxesandcharges)
(for c m r h s ears [RUB billions] t egion’s
21.9 39.7 educed ome alf t o
Ministry of Finance of the Kaliningrad Oblast Kaliningrad of the of Finance Ministry illion H he
b i
owever,
61.6 nclude more
y of o i
f fi ntroduced i
3 f Y rom to
n w
entities 0% rst
22 t
ekaterina
2015
f r he e
J ith
or ate-Development, 018, n s 10 uly oubles I conomy
ocial
information
o y
t
g r
t r 70.2 f million he ear s
o 2 egular
he roup t
ules ea 2 t ther he he 019
Особой g
registered
s c
w
p
ranting ecurity
( o i arriage n
n
US$ ort
u
f ith K I a o w ewly c
gnatova, ntil e 2
nd f ountries
r 17.3 26.4 41.8 roubles
ill lectronic 018
ate
n a
a экономической
1 ew
reas, c
b 85.5 5,000)
see r 2 r oncerned,
e t
ecorded o ( p 045 egistered o o
previously
f remiums o as b f
t r 2016
Chapter f usinesses
he pa esident
a
a
(US$
key resident a ( lso s
by nd b
ssengers
f 88.3 r w or usiness, ules
b
i ell
1 p f
mportance 150,000)
ecame
4.5 I or a b rofit, T
mong usinesses
a s III.2).
o a
зоны,
tatus).
s p
nd a
there
f s y c imilar a ttracting
rojects. 17.2 29.5 44.3
h Budget expenditure Federal budgetcompensation fordiscontinuedreliefs omprised ears)
n r
a ow t a educing a
nd r ourist
a
nd w 91.0 op. cit. cit. op. z o egistered utomotive
ero
thers, for has
ere t
I
l he
n a
i uggage p
f n 2017 w
nd
or references
M ad
health
i
o
increased S
ere ncome t a f
f
oreover, EZ he
oreign b 113.9 dition, nd t
a e pa e he oosting gricultural xpanding
xtending
I
n f i
T rticular h
n unctions b g ext m
umanitarian
care s y earbox
t t ector
inimum he
ax a i a
nvestors
s ir 20.0 56.0 49.7
by S w z
ix
K z
r ero EZ
investments one. ere ( ate aliningrad’s
125.7
previously 70 c i t y t
mportance
ompanies. he
m he m ears a
r V
esidents a nd (i.e. f
anufacturer ean AT
or K
i vailable a 2018 a nvestment
pplication ate-Devel
rea a
f s
t
v nd r oodstuff 124.0 by
ix hey t ate isas hat
o
y 30%), t f
our-
ears
w
1 and
c c Th
t t c 0% i f f an an he he n- or or as o- e -
S Less 2 efited I orks b opment t 012, y EZ.
1991 became the First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Economy Minister and Minister Prime Deputy First the 1991 became Moscow in in and career apolitical pursued then factories, car Kamaz VAZ the in and adirector as then and engineer workedShcherbakov an as about Union, Soviet 99.9% oftrolled company. the years of the the During he con reports, media to according and Oblast) Kaliningrad the in plant assembly aKIA founded as Avtotor Shcherbakov (originally Vladimir early 1990s, the In is. corporation of the owner real whoIt notthe is clear 2018. in budget federal compensation abolition the for of from reduced the tariffs company receivecould aboutroubles 45 billion (about in US$ 0.8 billion) budget. The regional the to roubles 1billion were allocated approximately However, 2018, in only paid roubles billion of 67 approximately taxes of the Oblast. Kaliningrad the in paid – 39% of taxes shipments; container region’s rail of and the – 57% maritime sector; Oblast’s manufacturing 50%Kaliningrad of the – around Oblast’s economy, Kaliningrad Avtotor of for: cornerstone the accounting the is period. this 13% in by 12% and respectively increased sales Avtotor trucks. and cars 203,000 2018 approximately –to 40% in a further by production its increased data, of preliminary to over according 50% and, production its volume. 2017, In increasing been company recorded the growth company has the cars, 90,000 2015in around to when output its decreased slump Since the vehicles. 265,000 when 2012 itproduction in manufactured TATA KIA, FAW. Daewoo and dai, The volume company recorded of apeak for BMW, cars assemble Hyun currently Its plants Russia. in brands car eign of forThe joint-stock company Avtotor manufacturers one largest is of the Avtotor s
Y hould ekaterina’s
t At
Rostec
han from
the w
b
3 e
00 beginning the
itself ad
b v
ded h reduced ery usinesses usband
has
t
c hat losely
also
of
tariffs s S
2016 ince ergei
c been
w urrently ith
approximately t
aking (available C
present
hemezov, t he
s h
o tate-owned ave ver
in
within
t the o t heir he ne
800
Kaliningrad
o K
f h aliningrad
P the
eadquarters
c businesses resident orporation
SEZ
from
Oblast. P
A utin’s
in mber
R r
1996). egistered
ostec the
c
lose
C region
ombine c ontrolled
f riends.
i n
ben
t
- - - he i n -
37 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 38 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 easures t evelopment sectorThe of energy of potential the the 2.2. minal in January 2019 January in minal Th t ciency he he is 174,000 m is ture (see Map 2). The eventual cost of constructing the floating unit was was unit floating the (see 2). Map ture ofcost constructing The eventual infrastruc offshore the and port of the part land the to terminal the from 3.5 i.e. km a leading longpipeline, gas sea infrastructure, offshore priate appro of the construction November 2017. the required The project also in Sea Baltic the in storm due the to infrastructure age coastal the to one-year dam delay, by the caused 2018. were also Delays on October 31 almost an with over handed to Gazprom was boilers it regasification the 2017, early January in but due one to Heavy Industries of damage to dai inner circle. inner family, but Shcherbakov not company people the of Putin’s are the from beneficiaries real the budget, state that the itsation from mayassumed be receives compen and capital) multi-billion-dollar repatriate to business Russian forcing is havens(at when PresidentPutin atime tax through plant it controls the that elite, business and political Russian current the does not core of belong the to family Shcherbakov the that Considering 2016. in also Automotive Hongby in the Kong, Development registered Group Limited, wholly and owned 2016 Luxembourg in in velopment Holding, registered Automotive controlsthe Sergei Avtotorlives Switzerland. De through in son Sergei,who his to shares his 2016 transferred in Shcherbakov reports, USSR). of forthe media to Economic According State Committee Planning the called was department this USSR (previously of the Forecasting and 2.3 million tonnes (approximately 3.1 billion m (approximately billion tonnes 2.3 3.1 million is terminal regasification LNG the floating capacity of The regasification floatingThe e launch of the “Marshal Vasilevsky” floating LNG regasification ter- regasification LNG floating Vasilevsky” “Marshal the of launch e
Kaliningrad g
m D as
of
a
nd the
e
region. lectricity
3 t . The unit was manufactured at the Korean shipyard Hyun shipyard Korean at the manufactured was . The unit aken L
Oblast. N G regasification terminal in the Kaliningrad Oblast Kaliningrad the in terminal G regasification
b y
s
t
ectors, he w as
f ederal
a
key a re
a a i uthorities nvestment lso
pa rt
o
f i
n i t n he
3 t
) and the storage the capacity ) and he e
nsuring s trategy
e nergy
t
t s he o ector,
f
urther g as
m s elf-suffi- ainly
i solate
------i n
s ania, ferring b o w U a tween t 23 The years coming the in utilised fully be will terminal newlycommissioned the that However, unlikely Oblast. is it Kaliningrad the of independence Theinvestment is part ofthe Russianstrategy ofstrengtheningthe energy The g 2 g t Secondly, b c b chased w w o han upplies ommissioned ble f 018). as as illion uilt e The S$ 60 billion (around 1 billion US$). 1billion (around billion 60 contractor) RUB to amounted the was Timchenko’s Stroytransneftegaz (where port Gennady Kaliningrad the in infrastructure the of building (excluding VAT).US$ 295 million costs budget the The total including ith ill ill
2 o o N 1 2 E bles.
025. -й transmission nly ’, n s
nly stonia.
c eftegaz.Ru, be b
7
t upplied
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и
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U
m
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1
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erminal. t
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erminal
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urrently
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mounts
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l
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t gas v iquefaction
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o
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it одачу b t s r blast azprom 23
в
upplies
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o
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apacity t p a
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anged
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39 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 40 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 Map 2.
330 kV high-voltage power lines Šilutė power stations CHP plants Morskoye
Tauragė Oblast Kaliningrad the in infrastructure Energy hydro power plants nuclear power plant suspended project LITHUANIA Nem an gas pipelines underground natural gas storage regasification terminal Sovetsk Slavsk Jurbarkas TALAKHOVSKAYA Pogranichny
Pionersky Golovkino Šešupė Zelenogradsk BNPP Svetlogorsk Khrabovo Instruch Yantarny Polessk Bolshakovo Pereslavskoye
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r t S s s cerning, pany tracted r ture, ing mates c ums A Th o ( 42 w t F ing tadium though The expanded, government assumes will be the case the be will assumes government the as events, cultural and sports other or Club Football Baltika ingrad Kalin- of matches organising from revenues with stadium the maintain l Th t arge a here). he tage, tadium he construction of a cultural complex on the island of Oktyabrsky of island the on complex cultural a of construction he equired oubles, osts ederation thers. .A., Similar rkady
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uthorities argest
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rocus
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tadium ost
should , РБК,
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allery), harges f amount
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15.11.2018.
t t o b
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r c
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49 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 50 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 Recent large infrastructural projects in the Kaliningrad Oblast Kaliningrad the in projects infrastructural Recent large 5. Chart THEATRE | CINEMA | STROYGAZMONTAZH MUSEUM | BALLET 23 billion RUB
2019–2023 the cultural ARKADY ROTENBERG and entertainment complex
ROSNEFTEGAZ
100 billion RUB 4 POWER PLANTS IGOR SECHIN
STROYTRANSGAZ
42 billion RUB 18 billion RUB 60 billion RUB LNG TERMINAL GENNADY TIMCHENKO land infrastructure Marshal Vasilevsky floating terminal (South Korea) 2017–2018 2016–2020
SPORT ENGINEERING Ministry of Sport of the Russian Federation various subcontractors
KALININGRAD STADIUM 17.8 billion RUB 10 billion RUB 27.8 billion RUB with access infrastructure VITALY MUTKO stadium access infrastructure
ROSATOM
50 billion RUB Kaliningrad Nuclear Power Plant 2010–2014(project 2013–2018 suspended) SERGEY KIRIYENKO w t 43 panies nd he f As 018, uly f haven atax as aliningrad In 2.5. sian fi i i z E r In a tions E ing, f h R op R liningrad. O ba in U s ( t n n or ootball 5%) o he implified egistered one pplied ремина, . See: merald n+ aving ussian ussian rst S$ nly as
ck U erations s
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yprus),
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ifficulties
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the nspections. 2 ersons c o
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egtor c K ktyabrsky 2 AZ eturn, broad
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ecessarily
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p educed ax imited
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t t t estern of h H ince e aliningrad
usal he remlin’s
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ubjected
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51 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 52 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 pended lateral es tions L At Russia’sthat relations. intergovernmental better noticeably still are they partners, foreign its with Krem lin’srelations the of status the by influenced significantly are neighbours its and Oblast However,ties. Kaliningrad the between even relations though the authori- federal the by controlled and shaped is policy external Its tion. co-opera- external its of forms and directions the choose independently cannot Kaliningrad gov-that means This years. has several for regions the Moscow erned which in way centralised increasingly the and ment govern-of system Russia’sof logic authoritarian the to subordinated are world outside the with relations cross-border Oblast’s Kaliningrad The oss-border politicalrelations 1. K he III. ithuania things, free access to this waterway for third country vessels. The Russian The vessels. Russian country for waterway third access this to free things, sought, among other of Poland has anew agreement. signing the regarding Federation Russian the with then USSR and the with holding talks been has authorities. Soviet Since decision of July 1991, the Poland the to subject was vessels country third Access of peacetime. in from and Poland flagto ish Pol the under movement ships free of the merchant USSR guaranteed the protocol, the with accordance In of 1945. border 16 state ment August on the protocol Polish-Soviet by the to the Lagoon agree were established Vistula territory of the of the territory the from now through ing the ing the Therefore, Poland. only connect waterway USSR and the the between divided Lagoon, was Vistula the including Prussia, East former German World of the after territory changes War the II, of territorial a result As relations T
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o Baltiysk on of Baltiysk Strait KALININGRAD OBLAST Kaliningrad - - - - - 53 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 54 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 fects of the Polish project on the region. According to media reports, this this reports, media to According region. Polish project on of the the fects ef environmental) (mainly the would analyse to be whose task activists, and environmental ofexperts 17 people:working consisting group officials, aspecial decision establish to his announced governoring Alikhanov Anton 2017 act the March in concerned, authorities are Kaliningrad the as far As 2019). Federation February in issued (in astatement Russian of the President of the Council Rights Human the and Parliament Russian the of members by individual project have about expressed opinions been the conducted. be to Critical consultations and assessment impact ronmental for envi an called had Katowice, and in summit climate the during czyk Kowal Henryk Polish counterpart aconversation his project in the with about concern his expressed had Kobylkin, Dmitry Environment, the and Resources for Natural Minister the that published stating was muniqué 2018, acom December In problem for taken. be to and preventive measures of the for analysis an calling and Russia to economic and threats ronmental envi to potential attention side, drawing Russian the with draft the consult Polish not authorities did the that Vella, complaining Karmenu Fisheries, and Affairs Maritime Environment, for Commissioner EU the the to letter Federation, Shestakov, Ilya Russian Agencyofficial of sent the an Fisheries Federal Head of the the and for Agriculture Minister Deputy 2018, the gust implementationtheIn Au thedecision project. on of afinal before taking consequences harmful on potential its Russia with to consult project and on comprehensive the information with states neighbouring provideto the Polish authorities on the calling Environment, for the Polish Minister the Federation, Donskoy, Sergei Russian es of the Szyszko, Jan to sent aletter Resourc Natural and Environment for the 2017 Minister September the in concerned, authorities are federal the as far levels. As lower the to political limited been far have so reactions official although media, the in level and negative of causing Polandtory is reactions in Spit terri on the Vistula the through anavigableThe canal project build to vessels. guard border and naval small to access improve to by and allowing defence capabilities sailing) (including region the in traffic tourist intended to increase also is The canal transport. revenues freight from for and increasing expanded be to low port for the al will This Elbląg. in port the Lagoon, with Vistula the via Sea, Baltic the connecting independentof anewRussia, waterway create to project is the completed be to investment is of the The goal by official and 2022. million, 880 PLN project is of cost adraught of the up The with 4m. to expected and R us , both at the official official atsia the , both ------important for both sides, both within the framework of national national of framework the within both sides, issues both on Oblast for Kaliningrad important the with contacts cross-border tained main- have Lithuania and Poland both relations, worsened the Despite the good will of the Polish side). of the good will the on rely only can it under and rights any enforce cannot such as and ments assess impact Convention Espoo onnational environmental cross-border inter the to not is aparty Russia (in reality Spit island into an Vistula the of asection decision transform to law, unilateral does the international as violationto a amounts of This Oblast. Kaliningrad the negatively affecting side, despite Russian it the project with the consult to of failing accused been Poland has raised. been have also arguments legal rity. and Political secu Oblast’s military Kaliningrad to the goon), new threats creating thus La Vistula on the island silt reclaimed planned the issues, among other it allege concerns, (somestatements Russian installations NATO military of creation new Polish and lead the to Polish area, border of the tarisation would contribute amili to view, canal their the In more often. arguments security raise to 2017, Spit In commentators started coasts. Russian Vistula have and anegative on layout the impact the cies, of change currents sea spe routes of migration migratory the disturb and habitats bird threaten region), Kaliningrad the in cause fisheries to losses will fish water (which of fresh populations its Lagoon threaten and Vistula of waters the of the salinity the increase it will that argued been it has particular, In concerns. about environmental mainly project is canal on the narrative The Russian opinions. critical quoting Poland, mainly debate project in on the on have the project and reported the concerning successive about Polish authorities the of decisions tensive the information have news outlets provided ex The Kaliningrad media. the to speaking ists activ and environmental experts officials, by Kaliningrad expressed been 2019). project have of views the Critical (January itathreat as not treating authorities are Lagoon, regional but the Vistula the in situation ronmental project may have envi the anegative on the impact that heoccasion stated 2017). side (April Russian the another On with consult to them do expect Poles”, the they authorities do “lecture to not although want regional the economic an one, but project than strategic and military more of a political, is region, economic to the and damage environmental cause could which project, the suggested that has Alikhanov statements, his In vironment. En the and Resources of Natural Ministry Moscow to the to forwarded of 2017 (not summer the published), in areport was which prepared group ------55 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 56 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 tion. s tion. merce, nia, p P 2 O t t a C w inar rum its t o l 13 I G public work W voivodeships Polish between cooperation Interregional Union theEuropean by proved financed and ap- programmes of framework the within and programmes cooperation ties h B border p ropean Poland-Russia U ast n ransport, he he eminar, 018, nd perate lace resentation iotr eld ilateral ontact othic blast nion’s orking 0 armia-Masuria)
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f Th IMPORT t o b a
20 hich & o
i
e 15.6 ilseeds 90% gricultural een s b
p
xports Co. t a 18, y o lant he
f
B t v
A
i.e. elarusian of W r he F
a ecovering orbes lexander
eq i
, ccounts the
n estern In
accounting K
the by a EXPORT
t uivalent h
he s aliningrad 2014,
2.7 holding as
e w 15%.
K stimated Netherlands
2015
a
ell aliningrad
b о
b nd
s бласть IMPORT
he een i y
anctions f ntegrated
a
or 8.0 o a However, i
nd commenced
f company, rigin, n s o ood
m f t 9 t
he rade f h 0%
U N
or onopolised у O is
величила S$
p atalia
b
blast l r
a
roducts. ast EXPORT a egion, orn
ssets o
a round
a 1.2 2 f
and
nd the c
nd
a
t t ompany b i
he 2016 wo n construction
a large
illion,
a
L
R
remaining
ccounts w E t IMPORT l China. utsenko.
ogistics ussian ast U
hich r
э y 5.8 6
other machinery, equipmentandmeansoftransport agricultural productsandfoods
egion’s S$ кспорт b K ears. 5%
G y negative aliningrad’s
0
ermany.
i i
a .7 d nitially .e.
o
ealing
s b
c f f I
ingle
illion. or
10% n EXPORT с ounter-sanctions, 49 i
b
t of s t ельхозпродукции
otal y o anks 1.3 otal 2
Th r
a
018, the
o
egistered is round
I pr 2017 trade n ver
c i Th
owned
ocessed n e 1 IMPORT ompany, Sodruzhestvo-Soya a 994
xports.
e K gricultural
7.2 t
e
5 Lu he aliningrad’s xports
0%,
balance h 5 t tsenkos
e by % f
arming s l
t
eft
oya i
o the he a n
f However, EXPORT S nd
h R L
i
odruzhestvo 2.0
i Japanese n
is a
mported uxembourg д ussia’s (
ctivities husband remains.
t
i
о 2 m 2018 a mports rade $1,3 млрд’
018 nd a ilitary IMPORT
e nd xports 8.3
oilseed
f
w
r
t oods
p trad- f t otal ela-
rom ent a his ro-
c nd t o
a o f - ,
61 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 62 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 c C j U K l Others: 33.6% 500 100 200 300 400 Source: ers Kaliningrad’s Source: countries 7. Chart ust ast risis. hart 8. hart aliningrad S$ 0
o
t outside f 6 wo
Customs Service of the Kaliningrad Oblast Kaliningrad of the Service Customs Oblast Kaliningrad of the Service Customs 4 K
[US$ million] I
n aliningrad
m Exports from the Kaliningrad Oblast: the most important destination destination mostimportant the Oblast: Kaliningrad the from Exports Exports from the Kaliningrad Oblast to neighbouring countries neighbouring to Oblast Kaliningrad the from Exports 117 y
2 ears, illion, 018,
2015 the
Lithuania: 3.2% O
neighbours
blast,
P t
top he
oland 93 Poland: 5.1% L ithuania’s
p v Mexico: 5.4%
ten
olume roduce, m
p aking
importers. urchased
–
o 70
Poland
f b
p
i t ut t urchases 2016 heir
Exports toPolandExports o
d ne
espite c
ommodities 75
i
2 US$billion and mports o f
K
Lithuania a w aliningrad’s
g ere radual
i s
52 s m
till w uch 2017 orth
i – m ncrease
remain Germany: 5.5% uch
l 49 t ower;
U en S$
Norway: 10.7%
l Exports toLithuania Exports l ower argest
the Netherlands:7.3% 1
Algeria: 6.1%
i 01
Finland: 6.2% t n important China: 6.4% he
p m
t
urchases 101 c han illion
i ountry mporters. 2018
b
efore f
rom import 64
r i n anks
t t t
he he he A - t
o ing ficiency In C l ed portant a m 100 200 300 400 500 m r chinery, two years last the in rapidly growing been also have Kaliningrad to Imports Source: countries neighbouring from Oblast Kaliningrad the to 9.Imports Chart ( imited see elatively ccounting f hina 0
ade illion
Sodruzhestvo 2 f
or at 018,
Chart
[US$ million]
. Customs Service of the Kaliningrad Oblast Kaliningrad of the Service Customs
its i a
a n M
i e nd
q
o
c t n
434 eq S ffectiveness plants ost uarter he ountries f
outh t
s
t 9). he G
uipment table f he
2015
or l o ermany. argest
f c
r
m ase t
Ko egion (e.g.
he 140
o importing uch i f n
rea,
o o g t
otal
f v t
f oods a from
he
P
o olumes
nd o i o P
f n oland f G rigin.
oland
t
t l t
i ermany, he m ast
erms he mports i
Brazil mported eans
353
t
a
r
otal.
a t
o egional significant H hree a nd f
2016 o nd
owever, Imports fromPolandImports
g f o
oods or a
t f f A
S o
oodstuffs, lmost L
t 113 gricultural lovakia
y
ransport; ithuania Paraguay). t t ears o he
a
t w uthorities’ he
o
ere t U
blast. amount heir a
S$ r
nd egion a
i
nd mported a 1 w
w 14 388 nd i e
p n ere O
xports ith
t roducts m
he
n
2 o
b 2017 of e
018 illion n
elonged t a fforts c
he
cereals C ar lso t he zech 117
t
w o pa o i
i
n
ne o i
a ere n
t n t ther
rts nd he Imports fromLithuania Imports
o U
t
t R h t
he he for S$ e o
epublic
w and f a o nsure
oods
o
nd blast h
orth c t
ne t further op and ase erms
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his c
ubassemblies
t s
ategory: o
en t f c till
i 2018 he rom f f s a.
or
s
L
r t
hows m
he emained ithuania a U process
s 114 A ccount- elf-suf- ost
S$ Ko
vtotor r esult
m rea,
3 i t m- 90 he a- -
63 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 64 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 t o ticular i s b e t K tors Lithuania’s approach is of particular importance for the Kaliningrad Kaliningrad the fortransport sector importance particular of is approach Lithuania’s i Others: 21.7% t liningrad 50 he s s ar t As Source: origin of 10. Chart tal ts .e. han ransport hey hat hould trengthen xpensive f orders According aliningrad
t
potential, a н b
f his v t
y
инграду c i olume he
L would nfluencing
oal transport l Customs Service of the Kaliningrad Oblast Kaliningrad of the Service Customs
and. ithuanian Lithuania: 1.4%
a
m
b b f
c a erry e y
ode Paraguay: 5.0% arriage Poland: 4.7% USA: 4.2% t nd Imports to the Kaliningrad Oblast: the most important countries countries mostimportant the Oblast: Kaliningrad the to Imports
f
n s C t
a erries
o ector he Czekhia: 5.2% f. oted
lower t nd
его t
f u
a
heir
o o as
e В r s se nd
f e xport . oute
L Brazil: 7.8% ervices
s
stimates t оторванность’
Х f within a ithuanian
lower ransport rom
t t
t лебников,
R R
p he he w hat result
ba . the ussia, lays ailways
L ere (
e t rgaining s see ithuania’s o
he ervices fficiency f
f tariffs,
or
t
e
a o Russia). m s han ob
xports of
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ut
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last hapter (
ominant
ow
hich which it ‘ c Денег o h
arrier m ,
f i ave
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Новый Калининград Новый
t
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s making o o p t oving
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aliningrad, ransit i.e. s f oreign ussia
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rom I
ended transit t he K I.2.3). ет:
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aliningrad r s
U US$ billion
a g ole:
m
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S$ nd oods t the and
y
rucial. ак 8.25 ost he b t
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c f
ariffs
y
erry t
H arriers
1 i w М via o
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57
ferry K
i d
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hen осква a ntensively o the n e i eveloping ail aliningrad
ncrease ccounted verland.
xpensive,
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level O a 23.03.2018.
nd ussian oute.
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fi
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ерестала
ore
t
p countries m he
olicies
q of t
50
Th aritime uarter t i
heir
f u
han n a
f
i xperience
ev R transit or Slovakia: 9.7% E uncompetitive. s erries O n sed
e
t ailways n blast
he en n
a a 2
ot
к
eed t lternative round 0%
Korea: 19.5% a c o ariffs
омпенсировать
b fi re onnection f a
is
y
t 20 rst w ble
i
m
Germany: 10.4% i tariffs ransport t
ncreases
China: 10.4% s t a necessary. o ere ore 18 he
s
c
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h t
oncerned, 9 w m ross t o ave
alf
e he
2% d s
o hen xpensive uch f o ecisive perational, ully
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etween
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51 for Asia–Europe–Asia freight hub transport a Oblast Kaliningrad the make to Russia’s plans of because years two last the for growing been has sector rail the in Poland and ania Lithu with co-operation Kaliningrad’s of importance the Nevertheless, o Kaliningrad n more than 1 million tonnes of tonnes year. goods per 1million more than transport 1980s, which the in back built ferries by two served is connection ferries) by train served (which connection also is ferry going through transit countries) is possible via the the countries) possible is via transit going through (without Russia from region Kaliningrad of goods the to delivery The direct Russia. within distance same goods over the transporting than about 40% more expensive Belarus and of Lithuania territory the through oblast from/to the goods by rail of cost transporting the makes countries other the from of carriers services the use and borders two to cross sity goods. However, their neces reloading the do nottime have waste to trains T • • of rest the with Oblast Kaliningrad the routes two connecting currently are There region. Kaliningrad supplies routes the to providing transport freight main the year) per tons are (accounting for million 4.5–5 approximately tonnes of imports and 2.5 million tonnes of tonnes exports). 2.5 and million oftonnes imports million (3.5 tonnes 2017 about in 6million was transport of intra-Russian The volume Russia. mainland and region the of goods between transport the concern region provided by the services transport of the half Around R F
the ж reight connections between the Kaliningrad Oblast and mainland mainland and Oblast Kaliningrad the reight between connections hanks to the broad gauge track network in Lithuania and Latvia, Russian Russian Latvia, and network broad gaugeLithuania in the to track hanks u елезная o the northern route northern the the the southern route – ssia n
part
its
border
of
дорога
Kaliningrad’s R ailway,
. with R u
p ssia: ssia:
art Belarus.
– o
via f
via neighbours
t he
L
. Lithuania,
s
Th ithuania tate-owned e
su ccess
to
a
become nd Latvia
R
o ussian
f B
t elarus; his
and
more
R p ailways; lan
B on
t a
he
h open 51
ltiysk– to inges The land rail links links rail The land
t
rains Russia c f.
to . Currently, this . Currently, this
К
o
алининградская rail U n
e
s t nter t- he
transit. L
u r
eadiness R ga sea sea ga ussia
-
-
65 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 66 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 mainly by trains, also using the Baltiysk–Ust-Luga the using ferry. also train by trains, mainly market Russian by Avtotor to the delivered are manufactured The cars Railway. Kaliningrad by the transport freight 36% of well all as Baltiysk, in port at 65% the and of Kaliningrad port at the transhipments of container sector. 2017 company In accounted the for 69% transport Kaliningrad the of keycustomer the is Oblast The Avtotor Kaliningrad the located plant in a veloped ing, r a c t w local entrepreneurs, enforcement institutions and the army the and institutions enforcement entrepreneurs, local from schemes corruption over control of existing to take and stitutions signed ing c directorates regional ministries’ defence and power the of ship S F a t cluding prised (R The Poland and ligence Lithuania operationsin for intel base a remains also Kaliningrad increasing. been has telligence m a communications, play a role special there special governmental and protection counter-espionage for responsible are (FPS),which Service Protective Federal the and (FSB) Service curity t a f Because activities their and institutions security ituation the within 1. ecur I he hat he oubles ommand gainst haracteristic ctivities orces. nd spect, nd V ince 2016, a number of reshuffles have taken place in the top leader top the in place taken have reshuffles of number a 2016, ince
ith ilitary osgvardia) S .
sabotage
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epresentatives
i t
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67 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 68 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 Map 5. Map
Šilutė
Tauragė Main units of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kaliningrad Oblast Oblast ForcesKaliningrad the in Armed Russian of the units Main LITHUANIA Nem an
Jurbarkas
25 Pionersky Šešupė 36 Donskoye 64 81 44 4 132 uch KALININGRAD OBLAST Instr Kulikovo 71 689 132 Pereslavskoye
128 Chkalovsk 69
336 Kaliningrad 1545 44 183 44 152 11 79 11
Gvardeysk 11 11 P Ang reg ra Baltiysk 11 244 11 Znamensk olya Chernyakhovsk pa Gusev 44 7 11
132 22 11 Mamonovo Krynica Morska Braniewo
POLAND Bartoszyce Gołdap
UNIT LEVEL general military unit missile unit aviation unit
TYPE UNIT SUPERIOR NUMBER UNIT IF EXISTS tank unit coastal defence missile unit radar unit
Corps mechanised unit engineering unit warship unit Division Brigade naval infantry unit air defence unit ammunition storage Regiment
artillery unit missile air defence unit terpreted by the authorities as aimed at weakening the region’s the at weakening aimed authorities as by the terpreted relations in- activities counteracting on focused heavily is work their that force of institutions the of branches Kaliningrad the of feature unique a also Th 2 al s t G S a s Nesterenko Alexander Colonel 2018 January In a observation cial spe- needing region a be to Oblast Kaliningrad the considers service the o f K bating tivities o ferred a f lar Th l p t t t t f istry’s Kaliningrad in directorate regional Ministry’s Interior the of Head the became Illarionov Igor General Major2016, December In ocal or or or o o hose he hat ervices tructures
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or
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69 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 70 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 52 s o Russia with s ing c o sian ties i t c tained o a lining o 2 tion FSB counter-espionage service has also increased visibly increased also has service counter-espionage FSB v b veal t t cause A U a t F The Kaliningrad region continues to serve as a base for Russian intelligence intelligence Russian for base a as serve activitiesto continues region Kaliningrad The c se i nternational ntended o he hat hat ervices he apability ritical harges f f
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79 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 80 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 p a ation d l o v a p b d aliningrad ION he i As Con eral ule, a ing e Th eral l t c lin’s ously al lected tional ing ing a l Th p sions evel). argest imited n he ontinue ctivities
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etween
eployed E
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he w f potential ith K ontinue ewcomers blast
f R
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economy.
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i o O o L s umber
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t
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nly w h ithuania blast is
he m
e
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d H phenomenon. ub m a o c hich
espite w ttractions, uch o ounter-intelli- a f
w
owever,
r ore
a is
t s f ble
ill t
egion
t i o
nd hich erve of i
o n p ourists.
t a w nvestments
n t
f he
o eople,
broad.
n
t t m he rom b the eighbour-
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egatively O
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ppealing ts
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urrent nd o he r K n O
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i losely andle egion o
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blast ke
c p
ther e
w
a o Th Th K on- P co- ro-
nd
ne ep b ill i o- a- n e e e -
81 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 82 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 interested su eve be ha tion a fo The pl tic co by to ma un tic
de rmations ans
ncerns ggest
ve t
it S y en cr Fl he n
facto
ac
ea res
th
su eet eating a to
larged
a l
tivities
and lo at r ggest nd
ponsible
egion. th do dev t
o re th
of i
at ffensive uble
in n
a tains
th e
new
iates
nd sa by th th
t
re ca
he at
ta y
e at
-creation a th
rrying
th
re king
in
b
ir co fo
it un th fr e usiness e mained
s r op
ntingent u th
om cu e
its en or nit. al
ro e erations pl rrent l
iginal
d
im ou
fr th le ace as
Th of
om of
t is of plementation pects a
in
e op
ctivities th
th in
ge it si
of
t
si sc Ka ransformation erations is s e
ze.
neral i th ze
la
ratch. n op st
of liningrad de
e nd
t ructures an Thi erations
he
cade Ka in
o d an
en ternal e s f
liningrad on
The
vent
i in wi d largement
ndividual
or of ly ai
Po ll
aft
mo
r th
of
on un th o
be
se land fo f
e o
er th e
st a dergoes th
curity
rces f
re do
be m
e
t th Ob im e he
gional The textwasclosedinJuly2019. an me ne
ajor
ginning Ba
a e
tr last
portant de ctors.
n d cu chanised by end:
ltic aval
in
ployed Li a
ts qu
rmed
in thuania. ex
th au
Se in
alitative
it c
e panding th thorities’
omponent a of
th
as is
ob
is e
in c e th
pect di
th onflict last, mi
se ea
th e vision, e
en
As rly litary sphere litary
ne
e
ch on
of
th th ex
as
xt,
th in 20 anges. ly
i th o e e
clave n au vestment e
f
00s, FS mi wh
ex
pe is t t in he xiliary he
B isting rhaps litary eff stitu- ich
Thi B B wi wi an ort al al
is ll ll d s - -
Source: e Appendix 1. APP Inflation (December to December) of this, support from the federal budget federal the from support of this, %) in (change output Industrial Regional budget spending (RUB billions) (RUB budget spending Regional budget revenue) %of total (in billions) (RUB budget revenues Regional %) (in Unemployment %) in (change billions) of RUB year, (beginning Oblast Kaliningrad the in tract roubles and foreign currencies) under con in (jointly, persons of natural debts Bank %) in change businesses, (in wages Real %) in (change Retail %) in (change out) of work carried (value Construction %) in (change Agricultural output (change in %) in (change incomes Real %) in (change capital share in Investments Gross regional product (change in %) in (change product regional Gross (RUB billions) (RUB Surplus/Deficit E Rosstat N D I Selected social and economic indicators of the Kaliningrad Oblast economic Kaliningrad of and indicators the social Selected C S
- +17% 0521 072018 2017 2016 2015 69.4 -2.5 -8.8 10.4 -9.2 -6.2 10.2 25-7.5 -2.5 -3.7 174.7 11.7 5.9 -11 70 59 32 -4.9 -0.7 -2.9 85.5 -3% -2.5 5537.4 15.5 9.2 2.2 7.4 1.4 88 51 6 68.7 +2% 25.1 0.4 2.8 114 0.3 5.2 1.9 111 60 1.1 -3 -1 2 by 1 Jan. 2019) 1Jan. by (27% increase increase (27% (forecast) +16% 79.9 43.2 -3.9 126 124 4.8 4.6 3.6 4.1 9.1 60 3.1 -1 2 5 83 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 84 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 Source: (2018) ofrest Russia Appendix 2. Inflation (in %) Real income dynamics (change in %) in (change dynamics income Real 2017) thousands, (RUB capita per GRP Industrial output (change in %) in (change output Industrial Retail (change in %) in (change Retail %) in (change Construction %) in (change Manufacturing Rosstat Economic situation in the Kaliningrad Oblast as compared to the the to compared as Oblast Kaliningrad the Economic in situation Kaliningrad Oblast 421.5 43.2 4.8 3.6 3.1 -1 5 R 510.3 ussia -0.2 2.6 2.6 2.9 4.3 5.3 Source: (US$ Appendix 3. Total exports: Total Exports to Lithuania to Exports Poland to Exports Total imports: Total Imports from Poland from Imports Imports from Lithuania from Imports
millions) Customs Service of the Kaliningrad Oblast Kaliningrad of the Service Customs Kaliningrad Oblast’s trade co-operation with Poland and Lithuania Lithuania Poland and Oblast’s with co-operation trade Kaliningrad 2,742 7,965 2015 140 434 117 93 5,809 1,239 2016 353 113 70 75 7,209 1,270 2017 388 117 49 52 8,249 1,998 2018 387 101 114 64 85 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 86 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 Maritime Naval Forces (Baltic Fleet) – – – – – – – Central subordination units subordination Central 2016) 1 December after provided units; the of specified make-up are the with CFE along Europe, in Forces Armed Conventional on Treaty the with ance compli- in weapons basic their and sub-units support combat and military (general (as 2019) Oblast of of end February Kaliningrad the Appendix 4. Aerospace ForcesAerospace Ground ForcesGround (units tary – – – – – – – mand and measurement system) measurement and mand landing boats, three project 11770 boats and one project 1176 landing boat); one landing project 1176 and boats project 11770 three boats, landing project 21820 two crafts, landing Zubr project 12322 two air-cushioned 128 26 Radio-Technical NodeNN. (Voronezh-DM –Pionersky station) radar 841 82 1407 71 s 2016 in –Bespokoyny service from were withdrawn ships destroyer project 965A two missiles; Kalibr with equipped corvettes 20380 is located in the Smolensk Oblast) the locatedis in
hip District) st th nd th Landing Ship Brigade – Baltiysk (four project 775/775M landing ships, landing (four Ship project 775/775M Brigade –Baltiysk Landing st Measurement Point (Sazhen-TM quantum-optical station, Fazan com Point Fazan station, (Sazhen-TM Measurement quantum-optical Radio-Engineering Brigade – Primorye (part of the unit, the other part part other the unit, of the (part Brigade –Primorye Radio-Engineering
Surface Ship Brigade – Baltiysk (two project 11540 frigates, four project four project frigates, (two Ship project 11540 Brigade –Baltiysk Surface Radio-Electronic Combat Centre –Yantarny Combat Centre Radio-Electronic and th Central Artillery Armaments Base –Kaliningrad Base Armaments Artillery Central
co
Nastoychivy mponent: Units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Forces in stationed Russian of Armed ofthe Units the
r eporting
has
re-entered
d irectly colour print signifies units formed and arms arms and formed units signifies print colour
service
t o
t he
and
c ommand
will
w
be as
upgraded
t
urned o f
t he
i W nto
in estern
2019 a
m useum );
M ili- -
– – – – – – – – – – – Land component: Land – – – – – – – – – – – ron 2 one corvettes; project missile 21631 –two Ship Squadron Missile Small NN corvettes; missile four project 12341 – Ship Squadron Missile Small 106th corvettes; missile 12411/12411M ject missile launchers, four launchers, missile and 10750 roadstead minesweepers; 313 minesweepers; roadstead 10750 and project 13000 six minesweepers, Trawler base Division –four project 12650 Warfare Tactical Group – 6 project 1331M anti-submarine corvettes; 232 corvettes; Group anti-submarine –6project 1331M Tactical Warfare BM-21 launchers); Grad multiple rocket plans Nona-Smm 2S9 122 mm self-propelledtwelve six 120 howitzers, howitzers, 2S1 self-propelled Gvozdika mm eighteen 122 carriers, personnel armoured 134 BTR-80/82A squadrons; artillery two battalion, assault and one landing 603 72 342 36 336 eight tugs). and tankers two including units, Group of Supply (eleven –Baltiysk Units auxiliary 51 25 561 64 NN. Arsenal –Baltiysk. Arsenal NN. protection units);protection 864 reconnaissance ships, two small project 503M reconnaissance ships); reconnaissance project 503M small ships, two reconnaissance 864 ship, seven boats); hydrographic 2800 st th th nd th Hydrographic Service Region – Baltiysk (six hydrographic boats); (six hydrographic Region –Baltiysk Service Hydrographic st th nd Coastal Missile Regiment – Donskoye (two missile squadrons; four Bal four Bal squadrons; –Donskoye (two Regiment missile Missile Coastal Missile Boat Brigade – Baltiysk (1st Missile Boat Squadron –seven pro Boat Squadron Missile (1st Boat Brigade –Baltiysk Missile
rd Maritime Region Protection Brigade – Baltiysk (146 Brigade – Baltiysk Region Protection Maritime Reconnaissance Ship Squadron – Baltiysk (two medium-sized project –Baltiysk Ship Squadron Reconnaissance Maritime Reconnaissance Point – Parusnoye (two Spetsnaz companies); (two Point Spetsnaz –Parusnoye Reconnaissance Maritime to Naval Infantry Brigade – Baltiysk (two marine infantry battalions, battalions, infantry (two marine Brigade –Baltiysk Infantry Naval Hydrographic Ship Squadron – Baltiysk (one –Baltiysk project 861 Ship Hydrographic hydrographic Squadron Emergency and Rescue Division – Baltiysk (twelve rescue and fire (twelve fire and Division –Baltiysk Rescue rescue and Emergency
be corvette
developed
to
enter
in
2019
service B astion
(four
in
m
Bal
2019 issile p roject
missile ); th
l Spetsnaz Division); Spetsnaz aunchers);
2 2800
launchers)
to
restore
c orvette);
a
t hird ;
a th
tank Anti-Submarine Anti-Submarine
a
m s econd issile
battalion
p s quad- roject ; nd -
87 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 88 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 – – – – – – – component: Air 11 Thecontingent Fleetcommand theBaltic of to Ground reporting Forces – – – – – – th
Army ions with four-companyions structure); with battal military general MT-12twelve cannons; 100 mm anti-tank Rapira BM-21 mm launchers, twelveGrad multiple 122 rocket mortars, Sani 2S12 mm self-propelled eighteen 120 howitzers, 2S3 Akatsiya 152 mm thirty-six carriers, personnel eleven BTR-80 armoured carriers, personnel moured 159 forty-one MT-LB T-72B squadron; tanks, ar artillery oneron, anti-tank squad artillery one missile squadrons, self-propelled two artillery talion, included in the newly132 of the formed in regiment helicopter included sixteen 9K330sixteen Tor systems). 9 howitzers, eighteen 122 mm BM-21 mm launchers); Grad eighteenmultiple 122 howitzers, rocket 2A36 eighteen 152 Giatsint-B mm squadron; towed artillery oneron, missile 152 244 79 7 11 72 the from helicopters of anti-submarine a squadron 22 seven helicopters, Division) – Donskoye Ka-27PL/PS (fourteen anti-submarine military battalions with a three-company structure); athree-company with battalions military 2B16 Nona-K mm twelve 120 howitzers, towed general howitzers; pelled self-pro Akatsiya 2S3mm eighteen 152 30 vehicles, fighting tanks, T-72B 85 BMP-2 infantry of self-propelled a squadron artillery; battalion, tank u th K723 nit th nd th Mechanised Regiment – Kaliningrad (three mechanised battalions, one battalions, mechanised (three –Kaliningrad Regiment Mechanised nd egiment ank th Mechanised Brigade – Gusev (three mechanised battalions, a tank bat atank battalions, mechanised Brigade –Gusev(three Mechanised T Anti-Aircraft Rocket Regiment – Kaliningrad (four missile batteries, batteries, (four missile – Kaliningrad Regiment Rocket Anti-Aircraft
Missile Brigade – Chernyakhovsk (three missile squadrons, twelve squadrons, missile (three Brigade –Chernyakhovsk Missile under Artillery Brigade – Kaliningrad (one self-propelled artillery squad (one self-propelled artillery Brigade –Kaliningrad Artillery
Ka-27M Corps Iskander-M
R
formation
–
Kaliningrad anti-submarine
rocket
–
; G usev
launchers
–
consisting ( two
helicopters,
t ank );
of: ba ttalions;
three
Ka-29
s ixty-two nd Airbase (eventually (eventually Airbase
helicopters
T nd -72B Mixed Air Air Mixed ).
t anks); ------
Units directly reporting to the Baltic Fleet command: Fleet Baltic to the reporting Units directly – – – – – – – – – – – – – 44 command Fleet Baltic the to reporting Forces Aerospace of contingent The command: Fleet Baltic to the reporting Units directly – – – – – – – – – – – – th tion tion sile rons; 81 1545 183 148 2652 2676 2574 135 134 254 69 4 132 thirty-two a reconnaissance squadron, one squadron of multi-function fighter aircraft; aircraft; of fighter multi-function one squadron squadron, reconnaissance
Anti-Aircraft
th mechanised st th eparate th nd th rd Radio-Engineering Regiment –Pereslavskoye. Regiment Radio-Engineering th th S
Engineer Regiment –Gvardeysk; Regiment Engineer th squadron
Communication Battalion – Kaliningrad; – Battalion Communication th Communication Battalion – Kaliningrad; – Battalion Communication Anti-Aircraft Rocket Regiment – Gvardeysk (five missile squadrons; (fivesquadrons; –Gvardeysk missile Regiment Rocket Anti-Aircraft nd Mixed Aviation Division – Kaliningrad – consisting of: –consisting Aviation Mixed Division –Kaliningrad of of th Spetsnaz Radio-Engineering Battalion –Gvardeysk; Battalion Radio-Engineering Spetsnaz Repair and Construction Battalion –Kaliningrad. Battalion Construction and Repair Anti-Aircraft Rocket Regiment – Znamensk (three missile squad missile (three –Znamensk Regiment Rocket Anti-Aircraft Weapons and Ammunition Base – Guryevsk/Ryabinovka ( –Guryevsk/Ryabinovka Base Weapons Ammunition and eight Weapons and Ammunition Base – Cherepanovo ( –Cherepanovo Base Weapons Ammunition and Artillery Weapons and Ammunition Base – Prokhladnoye ( –Prokhladnoye Base Weapons Ammunition and Artillery
a an
mechanised
artillery
S-400 S-400
N
armed
regiment Division aval
missile missile
regiment A
with regiment ttack
–
is
Kaliningrad
systems systems
likely S-400
A
is viation
is likely );
systems likely , six 96K6 Pantsir-S1 systems); 96K6 Pantsir-S1 , six , sixteen S-300W systems);, sixteen a
); R
– egiment );
consisting
to
be
formed –
C
of: (one bomber- hkalovsk
in
2019 the ;
s c econd reation the the
c c
m rea rea
is- o - - - f
89 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 90 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019 – – – – – – – m thirteen aircraft, Su-27/Su-27P/Su-27UP/Su-27UB fighter teen copter regiment of the 132 of the copter regiment three An-26 transport aircraft, two An-140-100 transport aircraft); An-140-100transport two aircraft, An-26 transport three (twelve Mi-24 combat eight helicopters, Mi-8 combat helicopters, support 82 81 72 of the squadron transport 689 a eight aircraft, reconnaissance tactical and bomber Su-24M/Su-24MR sixteen ircraft ultirole st nd Communication and Radio-Engineering Battalion –Primorsk/Lunino; Battalion Radio-Engineering and Communication th Communication and Radio-Engineering Battalion –Kaliningrad. Battalion Radio-Engineering and Communication viation ighter
F S u-30M2 );
fighter
A
m
aircraft ultirole
R egiment
); c nd ombat Mixed Air Division being formed) – Khrabrovo formed) Division being –Khrabrovo Air Mixed nd Air Base (undergoing transformation, a heli (undergoing Base transformation, Air
– a
C ircraft, hkalovsk
e ight
( two fighter squadrons; four squadrons; fighter two
S u-30SM
m ultirole
S u-27SM3
c ombat - -
tank battalion of the 7 of the battalion * tank Oblast Kaliningrad the in division of creation amechanised Treaty) following the CFE the offensivecategories per (basic as their weapons level and talion/squadron Appendix 5. 100 mm and higher and mm 100 of calibre with Artillery Tanks Treaty) CFE per as categories (basic weapons of offensive Number squadron Artillery vehicles fighting Armoured battalion assault and Landing 11 the in units support and military of general Number Naval infantry battalion battalion Mechanised battalion Tank th Army Corps and 336 and Corps Army Expected expansion of general military and support units at bat units support and military of general expansion Expected th Mechanised Regiment existing as a cadre structure without weapons without structure acadre as existing Regiment Mechanised th Naval Infantry Brigade Infantry Naval cember 2016 D e 1/1* 342 144 41 8 6 2 1 February 2019 February 3/1* 342 144 103 8 6 2 1 2021 (forecast) 299 667 234 13 13 8 2 1 - 91 PRACEOSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 10/2019