Briefing Paper No

Briefing Paper No. 2: The UK Independence Party: a portrait of its candidates and supporters

August 2010

Philip Lynch, Richard Whitaker and Gemma Loomes, University of Leicester

This is the second in a series of briefing papers arising from the research project “Competing on the Centre Right: An Examination of Party Strategy in Britain”. The research is being conducted by Dr Philip Lynch, Dr Richard Whitaker and Dr Gemma Loomes at the University of Leicester, and is funded by the Leverhulme Trust. The briefing papers will highlight early findings from the research, representing „work in progress‟, and offer commentary on current issues that fall within the project‟s remit.

This second paper outlines initial findings from the survey of UK Independence Party general election candidates, and summarises the findings of research on support for UKIP at the 2009 European elections.

SURVEY OF UKIP GENERAL ELECTION CANDIDATES

The survey of candidates standing for the UK Independence Party (UKIP) in the 2010 general election was distributed using the online tool „Survey Monkey‟. Emails were sent to individual candidates in three waves between April and June 2010. Where email addresses were unavailable, postal surveys were sent to candidates in May. Of the 558 UKIP general election candidates, 483 were contacted via email and 50 by post. We were unable to contact a further 25 candidates. A total of 295 valid responses were received: 282 electronic surveys and 13 postal surveys. The response rate of 53% of all candidates, and 55% of candidates contacted, is healthy for this type of survey. We are extremely grateful to Lord Pearson and Nigel Farage for their support for our research, and to all those candidates who completed the survey.

The survey was designed to assess the nature of party competition on the centre right in British politics, with questions on candidates‟ views on European integration, political attitudes and party competition. A final section covered personal background and experience, including the constituency in which the candidate was standing. Candidates who wished to remain anonymous were advised not to answer this question. 265 respondents identified their constituency, allowing us to observe regional trends. We are satisfied that the survey achieved a representative sample of UKIP candidates.

Attitudes to European integration

Questions on attitudes to European integration confirmed that UKIP is a strongly Eurosceptic party. It is also broadly united on European issues. 69% of respondents believe that the European Union (EU) has the most impact on people‟s everyday lives, with only 7% citing the UK government. 93% strongly disagree or disagree that the EU has a positive impact on economic prosperity, employment, quality of life in the UK and the UK‟s international profile. 97% either strongly agree or agree that European integration has a negative impact on British democracy, national identity, sovereignty and economic competitiveness. Similar proportions disagree or strongly disagree that the Common Agricultural Policy, Common Fisheries Policy, Common Foreign and Security Policy, and EU action in employment and social affairs have been beneficial for the UK. The single European market was viewed negatively by 70% of respondents, but positively by 14%. There was some support for the proposition that the EU should have strategies on deregulation (with 23% agreeing/strongly agreeing) and counter-terrorism (34% agreeing/strongly agreeing) – but some respondents noted that such strategies are of limited concern given their desire to leave the EU.

UKIP candidates are almost entirely united in support of the party‟s central objective: 99% agree/strongly agree that the UK should leave the EU. There is also consensus on options for the UK after withdrawal: an overwhelming majority support stronger trading links with the Commonwealth and NAFTA, and bilateral trade agreements with the EU. Support for membership of the European Economic Area is lower (with 62% agreeing/strongly agreeing), perhaps reflecting the concern that EEA states are obliged to implement much EU law.

The 1998 party conference agreed that UKIP MEPs should take their seats in the European Parliament. Our survey shows overwhelming support for this position: 91% of candidates agree/strongly agree (see Table 1). UKIP MEPs have been part of a political group in the European Parliament since 1999. Group membership brings potential benefits such as finance and status (e.g. speaking time for the group leader). But UKIP has had relatively few natural allies in the European Parliament. Other „Eurosceptic‟ parties often favour reform of the EU rather than withdrawal, and Euroscepticism is not always a defining element of their identity. Since 2009, UKIP has been the largest party in the Europe of Freedom and Democracy group (EFD). But Nikki Sinclaire and Mike Nattrass have left the EFD, and Sinclaire is no longer a UKIP MEP. Nonetheless, a clear majority (72%) of survey respondents agree or strongly agree that UKIP MEPs should be part of a political group within the European Parliament. Under Article 191 of the EC Treaty and Regulation (EC) no. 2004/2003, parties may gain additional EU funding if an application to form a „European political party‟ is approved. Forming an alliance of Eurosceptic parties has been discussed within UKIP, but no formal application has been made. Survey respondents are divided fairly evenly on whether UKIP MEPs should be part of a transnational political party: 35% agree/strongly agree, and 35% disagree/strongly disagree.

Table 1: Attitudes to the Role of UKIP MEPs (% of respondents) Neither Strongly agree nor Strongly agree Agree disagree Disagree disagree UKIP MEPs should take their seats in the 61 30 4 3 2 European Parliament

UKIP MEPs should be part of a political 40 32 19 7 2 group in the European Parliament

UKIP MEPs should be part of a 17 18 29 17 18 transnational political party Note: Figures may not total 100% because of rounding.

Political attitudes and party competition

Candidates were asked about their political attitudes and views on party competition. Firstly, candidates were asked to place themselves, their party, their party‟s voters and other parties on a left-right ideological scale (see Table 2). Most UKIP candidates place themselves, their party and their voters on the right of centre, with almost half locating UKIP on the centre right. Very few place themselves, UKIP or its voters on either the left or the far right. Candidates see little difference between the ideological position of the party and its supporters. Only 36% of respondents place the Conservatives on the right of the political spectrum. Most locate the BNP on the far right but a sizeable minority regard it as left wing, presumably because of the BNP‟s interventionist and authoritarian policies.

Table 2: Left-right positions (% of respondents) Left Right

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Yourself 0 0 1 1 5 25 18 21 21 4 3

Your party 0 0 0 0 1 20 22 31 21 2 3

Your party's voters 1 0 0 1 4 21 22 28 20 2 1

Conservatives 3 2 7 11 16 25 19 7 4 3 3

Labour 13 12 21 20 17 9 3 2 2 0 2

Lib Dems 15 15 20 16 14 14 1 2 1 1 1

BNP 15 5 5 0 2 2 2 3 5 16 45 Note: Figures may not total 100% because of rounding.

A note of caution is required as some respondents question the utility of the left-right scale. We share some of these doubts and recognise that the position of parties such as UKIP, the BNP and the Greens is best understood in terms of „new issue cleavages‟ like Europe, immigration and the environment rather than the traditional social class cleavage and socio-economic divide. We thus asked candidates to place themselves, UKIP, its voters and other parties on scales concerning attitudes to European integration and immigration.

UKIP candidates are strongly Eurosceptic and see their party in the same light. They also view UKIP voters as Eurosceptic, but not to the same degree (see Table 3). The BNP is seen as Eurosceptic, but less so than UKIP, with Labour and, to a greater degree, the Liberal Democrats seen as favouring further integration. On the 11 point scale, 25% of respondents view the Conservatives as Eurosceptic (receiving scores of 0-4), but 58% believe it supports further integration (receiving scores of 6-10). UKIP candidates are, then, both hostile to the Conservative Party‟s position on Europe and highly suspicious of its claims to be Eurosceptic.

Table 3: Attitudes towards European integration (% of respondents) European The EU integration should has gone become a

much too federal far state 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Yourself 89 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Your party 92 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

Your party's voters 71 13 9 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative 1 1 5 8 10 18 14 11 11 5 17

Labour 1 0 0 1 3 10 9 13 19 13 32

Lib Dems 1 0 1 0 2 1 3 3 11 17 60

BNP 74 8 6 3 2 4 0 1 0 0 3 Note: Figures may not total 100% because of rounding.

On immigration, UKIP candidates perceive their own views, their party‟s position and the views of their voters similarly in supporting a significant tightening of UK immigration policy (see Table 4). There is no clear view on the Conservatives‟ position, although many respondents place them near the centre. The BNP is seen as having a tougher position on immigration than UKIP. When asked if the presence of the BNP makes it more important that UKIP campaigns on immigration, 66% agreed/strongly agreed.

Table 4: Attitudes towards immigration (% of respondents) Regulation of Regulation of immigration to immigration to the UK should the UK should

be significantly be significantly tightened relaxed 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Yourself 72 14 9 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0

Your party 70 17 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Your party's voters 67 18 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservatives 2 5 10 13 10 19 11 9 7 5 9

Labour 0 1 2 3 4 10 7 13 18 12 31

Lib Dems 0 0 1 1 1 6 6 9 15 15 45

BNP 92 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 Note: Figures may not total 100% because of rounding.

In recent years, UKIP‟s leadership has sought to change its image as a „single-issue party‟ by broadening the party‟s policy agenda. This strategy enjoys near-universal support in our survey, with 99% agreeing or strongly agreeing that UKIP‟s policy platform should encompass a wide range of issues. Most respondents see UKIP as mobilising public opinion as part of the wider Eurosceptic movement. 62% agree or strongly agree that UKIP should put pressure on the Conservatives to adopt a more Eurosceptic position. Respondents also believe that political parties do not respond to the views of their own supporters on the issue of Europe. This offers further support for the view that UKIP should play an „agenda-setting‟ role on the issue.

Table 5: In the medium term, UKIP’s role in British politics should be: (% of respondents) Neither Strongly agree nor Strongly agree Agree disagree Disagree disagree As a party whose policy platform encompasses a 84 15 1 0 0 wide range of issues, built around the core theme of withdrawal from the EU

As a party whose policy platform is restricted to 7 14 12 42 25 the core theme of withdrawal from the EU

As part of a broad Eurosceptic social movement 5 38 12 9 7 mobilising public opinion

To put pressure on the Conservative Party to 31 31 19 8 12 adopt a more Eurosceptic position Note: Figures may not total 100% because of rounding.

The relationship between UKIP and the Conservatives has aroused much interest within the two parties and the media. In 2009, Nigel Farage and Lord Pearson offered to stand down UKIP candidates in the general election if the Conservatives guaranteed to hold an „in-out‟ referendum on the EU. There have also been periodic discussions on whether UKIP should field candidates in constituencies where a Eurosceptic MP (e.g. a supporter of the Better Off Out campaign) is standing. At the election campaign launch, Lord Pearson announced that UKIP would not field candidates against five Conservative candidates and one from Labour. However, other candidates rejected requests to step aside.

Our survey found strong support for the idea that UKIP should contest all seats, with 88% agreeing or strongly agreeing, rather than concentrating on a few where winning might be possible (see Table 6). Respondents were divided on whether UKIP should contest seats against Eurosceptic Conservatives: 48% believe that it should field candidates, but 26% disagree or strongly disagree. A majority oppose an electoral pact with other Eurosceptic parties. For those in favour, the English Democrats were named most frequently (by 9%) as a potential ally.

Table 6: At the forthcoming general election, UKIP should: (% of respondents) Strongly Neither agree Strongly

agree Agree nor disagree Disagree disagree Contest all seats 63 25 6 6 0

Concentrate on a few seats where winning 15 19 11 40 16 might be possible

Field candidates in seats where a Eurosceptic 26 22 26 22 4 Conservative candidate is standing

Seek an electoral pact with other Eurosceptic 8 18 22 31 21 parties Note: Figures may not total 100% because of rounding.

When asked which party UKIP was most likely to take votes from in their constituency, 30% of respondents named the Conservatives and 30% Labour. Candidates standing in the South West and South East were more likely to cite the Conservatives, whereas those in the North West and Yorkshire tended to identify Labour.

Candidates were presented with eight policies and asked whether UKIP should campaign on these (see Table 7). A referendum on EU membership garnered the strongest support, although some respondents noted that a UKIP election victory would provide a mandate for withdrawal without the need for a referendum. Immigration and the economy also scored highly. Climate change scepticism and Islamic extremism have featured in UKIP‟s narrative recently. A majority believe that UKIP should campaign on these, but they did not attract the level of ardent support as other issues. Respondents were given the opportunity to add their own issues: judicial matters, political reform and defence were mentioned most frequently.

Table 7: How much do you agree or disagree that UKIP should campaign on: (% of respondents) Neither Strongly agree nor Strongly agree Agree disagree Disagree disagree Civil liberties 64 27 7 2 1

Climate change scepticism 45 35 13 6 2

Economy 82 18 1 0 0

Education 62 33 5 0 0

Health 57 36 5 1 0

Immigration 82 16 2 0 0

Islamic extremism in the UK 50 33 10 6 1

A referendum on UK membership of the 91 8 0 0 1 European Union Note: Figures may not total 100% because of rounding.

Background and experience

The final section of the survey asked about the personal background and experience of candidates. UKIP candidates tend to come from a variety of backgrounds. Respondents have a variety of occupations: 26% have a manager or senior administrator role and 15% are small business owners. More than half of respondents joined UKIP since 2005, with 18% becoming members as recently as 2009. Almost half of respondents (48%) had been members of another political party in the (sometimes distant) past. Of these, over 30% had previously been Conservative Party members and 4% had previously belonged to the Labour Party. Many candidates are also members of campaigning organisations, with the Taxpayers‟ Alliance named most frequently (by 18%).

SUPPORT FOR UKIP

This section summarises our research findings on support for UKIP at the 2009 European elections. There are, of course, significant differences between UKIP‟s performance in European and general elections: UKIP won 16.5% of the vote in the 2009 European election and 3.1% of the vote at the 2010 general election.1

We examined data of two types: firstly, data on UKIP‟s 2009 vote share in every lower-tier local authority area in England and parliamentary constituency in Wales along with census data for these areas. This allows us to assess the characteristics of geographical areas in which UKIP performed best. Secondly, we analysed a survey by YouGov conducted in the week prior to the 2009 European elections in Great Britain, which included 4,252 UKIP supporters in a total of 32,268 respondents. This provides information on the social characteristics of UKIP voters and their political attitudes. The key findings are:

Party vote shares. UKIP support tended to be highest in areas where the Conservatives also did well. There was a small positive correlation between UKIP‟s performance and that of the BNP. But whereas the BNP did well in areas where support for Labour was relatively high, UKIP performed less well in areas of relatively strong support for Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. Support for UKIP was highest in the South West, South East and Midlands.

Demographics. UKIP performed better in rural areas and in places with a high proportion of older voters. Age mattered when comparing UKIP support with that for the Conservatives and BNP: older voters were more likely to support UKIP. Where there are higher proportions of professionals and more owner occupiers, UKIP did worse than the Conservatives but better than Labour and the BNP. Correspondingly, UKIP did less well than the BNP and Labour in areas with larger numbers of young and unemployed people, and those from ethnic minorities. Men were more likely to vote UKIP than women.

Euroscepticism. Eurosceptic attitudes were the most important driver of support for UKIP at the 2009 European elections. Higher levels of Euroscepticism are associated with a greater probability of voting UKIP compared with the Conservatives, Labour and the BNP. Electors intending to use their vote to express their views on Britain‟s relations with the EU were also more likely to support UKIP. European elections are not simply a vehicle for protest voting.

Political dissatisfaction. Voters who believed that Labour and, in particular, the Conservatives “no longer care” had a greater probability of supporting UKIP. Low levels of trust in MPs and a belief that there are few differences between the main parties were also associated with a greater likelihood of voting UKIP compared with the main parties, but not in comparison with the BNP.

Immigration. 76% of UKIP supporters cited immigration as one of the 3 or 4 most important issue facing the country. „Europe‟ was fourth, cited by 39% of UKIP supporters – they were more likely to mention it than supporters of other parties. This suggests that UKIP is not regarded as a single-issue party by its supporters. Support for UKIP was higher among voters concerned about immigration: UKIP gained over Labour and the Conservatives on this but lost out to the BNP. Voters believing that immigration policy should be decided by each country rather than the EU were more likely to support UKIP in comparison with Labour and the Conservatives while there were no differences with the BNP on this point. 62% of UKIP supporters held a „fairly negative‟ or „very negative‟ view of the BNP according to the YouGov survey.

Left-right position. In the YouGov survey, more than half of UKIP supporters placed themselves either in the „centre‟ or „slightly right of centre‟ of the political spectrum (see Figure 1). UKIP also enjoyed some support from those who placed themselves „slightly left of centre‟, doing better than the Conservatives among these voters. UKIP outperformed the BNP among voters in the centre and those „slightly right‟ or „slightly left of centre‟.

Probability of voting UKIP. Our calculations showed that political attitudes are much more significant than social and geographical factors in driving support for UKIP. Euroscepticism has the biggest effect on the probability of voting for UKIP, with populist attitudes also significant. Location on the centre right and disillusionment with the Conservative Party are also significant.

Figure 1: Voters for UKIP, the Conservatives and BNP on the left-right spectrum 35

20 UKIP 15

Conservatives % of sample of % 10 BNP 5

0 V. left Fairly Slightly Centre Slightly Fairly V. right left left right right CONCLUSIONS

The candidate survey shows that UKIP candidates see themselves and their party as being on the centre-right of British politics. UKIP supporters also locate themselves on the centre and centre-right. UKIP candidates are united in their strong Eurosceptic attitudes. Euroscepticism was also the most significant driver of support for UKIP at the European elections. However, neither UKIP candidates nor voters regard it as a „single-issue party‟. UKIP candidates favour tougher restrictions on immigration and strongly believe that the party should campaign on this issue. This again corresponds with the attitudes of UKIP supporters who ranked immigration as their most important issue in 2009.

Almost one-in-three respondents to the survey had previously been members of the Conservative Party, and a majority believe that one of UKIP‟s roles is to put pressure on the Conservatives to adopt a more Eurosceptic position. However, the survey also reveals deep scepticism about the Conservatives: UKIP candidates do not regard the Conservatives as a Eurosceptic party, believe it is insufficiently tough on immigration and doubt its centre-right credentials. Only a quarter of respondents believe that UKIP should not field candidates against Eurosceptic Conservatives. Overall, candidates appear to feel that, as a maturing political party, UKIP should focus on its own policy development and campaigning. In the 2009 European elections, UKIP won votes from Eurosceptic voters on the centre right and those disillusioned with the Conservative Party.

Only a small number of respondents place themselves on the left of centre or had been Labour Party members. The Conservatives and Labour were named by equal numbers of respondents as the party UKIP was most likely to win votes from in their constituency in the general election. This reflected both the unpopularity of the Labour government and regional differences in support for UKIP. Respondents view the BNP as close to UKIP on the issues of Europe and immigration but place it on the extremes (either far right or far left) of British politics, some distance away from UKIP. There is very little appetite for an electoral alliance with the BNP. Most UKIP supporters also have negative views about the BNP.

We would welcome comments from UKIP members on this Briefing Paper. Please contact Philip Lynch [email protected] or Gemma Loomes [email protected]

Data included in this briefing paper will be published in articles in academic journals in due course. We request that readers of this paper do not reproduce the data it contains without first contacting the authors.

Project website: www.le.ac.uk/politics/centreright.html

This research is funded by a Leverhulme Research Project Grant (reference F/00 212/AD). We are grateful to YouGov for making polling data available to us.

1 We also conducted a survey of UKIP candidates at the 2009 European elections, which yielded similar results to those reported for the survey of general election candidates.