Briefing Paper No. 2: The UK Independence Party: a portrait of its candidates and supporters August 2010 Philip Lynch, Richard Whitaker and Gemma Loomes, University of Leicester This is the second in a series of briefing papers arising from the research project “Competing on the Centre Right: An Examination of Party Strategy in Britain”. The research is being conducted by Dr Philip Lynch, Dr Richard Whitaker and Dr Gemma Loomes at the University of Leicester, and is funded by the Leverhulme Trust. The briefing papers will highlight early findings from the research, representing „work in progress‟, and offer commentary on current issues that fall within the project‟s remit. This second paper outlines initial findings from the survey of UK Independence Party general election candidates, and summarises the findings of research on support for UKIP at the 2009 European elections. SURVEY OF UKIP GENERAL ELECTION CANDIDATES The survey of candidates standing for the UK Independence Party (UKIP) in the 2010 general election was distributed using the online tool „Survey Monkey‟. Emails were sent to individual candidates in three waves between April and June 2010. Where email addresses were unavailable, postal surveys were sent to candidates in May. Of the 558 UKIP general election candidates, 483 were contacted via email and 50 by post. We were unable to contact a further 25 candidates. A total of 295 valid responses were received: 282 electronic surveys and 13 postal surveys. The response rate of 53% of all candidates, and 55% of candidates contacted, is healthy for this type of survey. We are extremely grateful to Lord Pearson and Nigel Farage for their support for our research, and to all those candidates who completed the survey. The survey was designed to assess the nature of party competition on the centre right in British politics, with questions on candidates‟ views on European integration, political attitudes and party competition. A final section covered personal background and experience, including the constituency in which the candidate was standing. Candidates who wished to remain anonymous were advised not to answer this question. 265 respondents identified their constituency, allowing us to observe regional trends. We are satisfied that the survey achieved a representative sample of UKIP candidates. Attitudes to European integration Questions on attitudes to European integration confirmed that UKIP is a strongly Eurosceptic party. It is also broadly united on European issues. 69% of respondents believe that the European Union (EU) has the most impact on people‟s everyday lives, with only 7% citing the UK government. 93% strongly disagree or disagree that the EU has a positive impact on economic prosperity, employment, quality of life in the UK and the UK‟s international profile. 97% either strongly agree or agree that European integration has a negative impact on British democracy, national identity, sovereignty and economic competitiveness. Similar proportions disagree or strongly disagree that the Common Agricultural Policy, Common Fisheries Policy, Common Foreign and Security Policy, and EU action in employment and social affairs have been beneficial for the UK. The single European market was viewed negatively by 70% of respondents, but positively by 14%. There was some support for the proposition that the EU should have strategies on deregulation (with 23% agreeing/strongly agreeing) and counter-terrorism (34% agreeing/strongly agreeing) – but some respondents noted that such strategies are of limited concern given their desire to leave the EU. UKIP candidates are almost entirely united in support of the party‟s central objective: 99% agree/strongly agree that the UK should leave the EU. There is also consensus on options for the UK after withdrawal: an overwhelming majority support stronger trading links with the Commonwealth and NAFTA, and bilateral trade agreements with the EU. Support for membership of the European Economic Area is lower (with 62% agreeing/strongly agreeing), perhaps reflecting the concern that EEA states are obliged to implement much EU law. The 1998 party conference agreed that UKIP MEPs should take their seats in the European Parliament. Our survey shows overwhelming support for this position: 91% of candidates agree/strongly agree (see Table 1). UKIP MEPs have been part of a political group in the European Parliament since 1999. Group membership brings potential benefits such as finance and status (e.g. speaking time for the group leader). But UKIP has had relatively few natural allies in the European Parliament. Other „Eurosceptic‟ parties often favour reform of the EU rather than withdrawal, and Euroscepticism is not always a defining element of their identity. Since 2009, UKIP has been the largest party in the Europe of Freedom and Democracy group (EFD). But Nikki Sinclaire and Mike Nattrass have left the EFD, and Sinclaire is no longer a UKIP MEP. Nonetheless, a clear majority (72%) of survey respondents agree or strongly agree that UKIP MEPs should be part of a political group within the European Parliament. Under Article 191 of the EC Treaty and Regulation (EC) no. 2004/2003, parties may gain additional EU funding if an application to form a „European political party‟ is approved. Forming an alliance of Eurosceptic parties has been discussed within UKIP, but no formal application has been made. Survey respondents are divided fairly evenly on whether UKIP MEPs should be part of a transnational political party: 35% agree/strongly agree, and 35% disagree/strongly disagree. Table 1: Attitudes to the Role of UKIP MEPs (% of respondents) Neither Strongly agree nor Strongly agree Agree disagree Disagree disagree UKIP MEPs should take their seats in the 61 30 4 3 2 European Parliament UKIP MEPs should be part of a political 40 32 19 7 2 group in the European Parliament UKIP MEPs should be part of a 17 18 29 17 18 transnational political party Note: Figures may not total 100% because of rounding. Political attitudes and party competition Candidates were asked about their political attitudes and views on party competition. Firstly, candidates were asked to place themselves, their party, their party‟s voters and other parties on a left-right ideological scale (see Table 2). Most UKIP candidates place themselves, their party and their voters on the right of centre, with almost half locating UKIP on the centre right. Very few place themselves, UKIP or its voters on either the left or the far right. Candidates see little difference between the ideological position of the party and its supporters. Only 36% of respondents place the Conservatives on the right of the political spectrum. Most locate the BNP on the far right but a sizeable minority regard it as left wing, presumably because of the BNP‟s interventionist and authoritarian policies. Table 2: Left-right positions (% of respondents) Left Right 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Yourself 0 0 1 1 5 25 18 21 21 4 3 Your party 0 0 0 0 1 20 22 31 21 2 3 Your party's voters 1 0 0 1 4 21 22 28 20 2 1 Conservatives 3 2 7 11 16 25 19 7 4 3 3 Labour 13 12 21 20 17 9 3 2 2 0 2 Lib Dems 15 15 20 16 14 14 1 2 1 1 1 BNP 15 5 5 0 2 2 2 3 5 16 45 Note: Figures may not total 100% because of rounding. A note of caution is required as some respondents question the utility of the left-right scale. We share some of these doubts and recognise that the position of parties such as UKIP, the BNP and the Greens is best understood in terms of „new issue cleavages‟ like Europe, immigration and the environment rather than the traditional social class cleavage and socio-economic divide. We thus asked candidates to place themselves, UKIP, its voters and other parties on scales concerning attitudes to European integration and immigration. UKIP candidates are strongly Eurosceptic and see their party in the same light. They also view UKIP voters as Eurosceptic, but not to the same degree (see Table 3). The BNP is seen as Eurosceptic, but less so than UKIP, with Labour and, to a greater degree, the Liberal Democrats seen as favouring further integration. On the 11 point scale, 25% of respondents view the Conservatives as Eurosceptic (receiving scores of 0-4), but 58% believe it supports further integration (receiving scores of 6-10). UKIP candidates are, then, both hostile to the Conservative Party‟s position on Europe and highly suspicious of its claims to be Eurosceptic. Table 3: Attitudes towards European integration (% of respondents) European The EU integration should has gone become a much too federal far state 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Yourself 89 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Your party 92 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 Your party's voters 71 13 9 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 Conservative 1 1 5 8 10 18 14 11 11 5 17 Labour 1 0 0 1 3 10 9 13 19 13 32 Lib Dems 1 0 1 0 2 1 3 3 11 17 60 BNP 74 8 6 3 2 4 0 1 0 0 3 Note: Figures may not total 100% because of rounding. On immigration, UKIP candidates perceive their own views, their party‟s position and the views of their voters similarly in supporting a significant tightening of UK immigration policy (see Table 4). There is no clear view on the Conservatives‟ position, although many respondents place them near the centre. The BNP is seen as having a tougher position on immigration than UKIP.