Leader Or Party? Personalization in Twitter Political Campaigns During the 2019 Indian Elections Smsociety ’20, July 22–24, 2020, Toronto, ON,Canada
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1 Leader or Party? Personalization in Twitter Political Campaigns 59 2 60 3 during the 2019 Indian Elections 61 4 62 5 Ashwin Rajadesingan∗ Anmol Panda Joyojeet Pal 63 6 64 7 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 65 8 University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Microsoft Research, India Microsoft Research, India 66 9 67 ABSTRACT structured and managed, since social media becomes a site where 10 68 the politician’s image is constructed, and the channel which then 11 Personality-centric politics has been a significant part of discus- 69 propagates out to traditional media such as print and television 12 sions on social media’s impact on electoral politics. In this study, 70 [11]. 13 we quantified personalization in mainstream politics by studying 71 The election of populist leaders with a heavy social media foot- 14 the extent to which parliamentary candidates referred to the key 72 print such as Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro, Rodrigo Duterte, and 15 leader of their party as opposed to the party itself in their Twitter 73 Narendra Modi have brought to fore the role of personalized cam- 16 political campaigns. We found that the candidates of the incumbent 74 paigns, where the central focus of political outreach is on the indi- 17 right-wing Hindu nationalist party, the BJP, led by a popular and 75 vidual rather than the parties to which they belong [40]. Although 18 widely approved leader, Narendra Modi, were significantly more 76 personalization through social media is a relatively recent devel- 19 likely to run a leader-centric campaign than the candidates of the 77 opment, personalization itself is neither novel nor unique; Over 20 main opposition party, the INC. Smaller, state and regionalist parties 78 the past few decades, researchers have observed increasing per- 21 showed mixed results - while candidates of some parties centralized 79 sonalization in democracies with a variety of party and electoral 22 their discourse significantly in their key leaders, in other parties’ 80 configurations including Israel [40], Slovenia [9] and Egypt [26], 23 campaigns, the party was more prominent than its leader in can- 81 across system (presidential and parliamentary), stage (early and 24 didate campaigns. We also found that BJP candidates, rather than 82 mature democracies) and regional distinctions [39]. The contempo- 25 uniformly running campaigns coat tailing on their hugely popular 83 raneous rise of personalized politics and social media political cam- 26 leader, were strategic in the extent to which they ran Modi centric 84 paigns is no mere coincidence; personalization research suggests 27 campaigns. For BJP candidates, their followers count, the type of 85 that new media technologies such as social media propel politicians 28 constituency and Modi’s own approval rating in the region were 86 towards a more personalized style of campaigning by providing 29 closely associated with running Modi-centric campaigns. We found 87 newer, multi-modal avenues of individual self-presentation [17]. 30 no discernible patterns in how INC candidates personalized their 88 Personalized politics has important and varied implications. One 31 social media campaigns. 89 specific cause for concern, stemming from classic democratic theory, 32 ACM Reference Format: 90 is that this emphasis on individuals will distract voters from ac- 33 Ashwin Rajadesingan, Anmol Panda, and Joyojeet Pal. 2020. Leader or 91 cessing relevant information necessary to make rational choices in 34 Party? Personalization in Twitter Political Campaigns during the 2019 Indian 92 the ballot box [1]. In addition, leaders enjoying increased political 35 Elections. In International Conference on Social Media and Society (SMSociety 93 importance as a result of personalization are likely to have more 36 ’20), July 22–24, 2020, Toronto, ON, Canada. ACM, New York, NY, USA, 94 10 pages. https://doi.org/10.1145/3400806.3400827 autonomy in taking issue positions and are thought to be uncon- 37 95 strained by party norms in such a system [48]. Thus, traditionally, 38 96 1 INTRODUCTION personalized politics is viewed in unfavorable terms to party poli- 39 97 tics [4]. On the other hand, with declining party memberships, a 40 Politicians throughout the world now engage with citizens on so- 98 charismatic leader may actually invigorate and boost the fortunes 41 cial media, often eschewing the mediation of their interactions 99 of the party. Thus, personalization may also be a calculated strategy 42 through professional journalists and instead, speaking directly to 100 adopted by political parties [38]. In addition, much like partisan- 43 their constituents [45]. In India, an increasingly large number of 101 ship, personalization is also an informational shortcut employed by 44 politicians have made Twitter their primary means of public out- 102 voters seeking to distill and simplify complex issues when making 45 reach, which in turn has meant that journalists and citizens alike 103 important political decisions [1]. Therefore, while we do not take 46 must turn to Twitter as a listening post for politicians’ positions on 104 a normative stance on whether personalized politics is beneficial 47 various issues [19]. This has impacted how electoral campaigns are 105 or detrimental to democracy, we argue that personalized politics 48 ∗ 106 Work done during an internship at Microsoft Research, India. has important political ramifications and its prevalence must be 49 107 examined and contextualized. 50 Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or 108 classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed The rise of Narendra Modi, the current Prime Minister of India 51 109 for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation presents an interesting case in personalized politics since India has 52 on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM 110 must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, a parliamentary system of governance which is generally more 53 111 to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a conducive to party politics [39]. Moreover, Modi belongs to the 54 fee. Request permissions from [email protected]. 112 right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is both cadre-based 55 SMSociety ’20, July 22–24, 2020, Toronto, ON, Canada 113 © 2020 Association for Computing Machinery. and ideologically driven, rather than parties that rely on one or 56 114 ACM ISBN 978-1-4503-7688-4/20/07...$15.00 a few charismatic or powerful figures as a source of their public 57 https://doi.org/10.1145/3400806.3400827 115 58 1 116 SMSociety ’20, July 22–24, 2020, Toronto, ON, Canada Ashwin Rajadesingan, Anmol Panda, and Joyojeet Pal 117 appeal. Unlike a presidential system in which presidents are either 2 INDIAN POLITICAL SYSTEM 175 118 elected through direct elections or an electoral college, in India’s India’s parliamentary system is based on the Westminster model. 176 119 parliamentary system, the party or coalition holding the majority There are two houses of the parliament: Rajya Sabha (Upper house) 177 120 of seats gets to appoint the prime minister. Therefore, a test of the and Lok Sabha (Lower house). In this work, we focus on political 178 121 prevalence of personalized politics in this scenario is to examine campaigns to the Lok Sabha, the primary legislative body of the 179 122 the extent to which candidates campaign in the name of their leader country. In the Lok Sabha, 543 members are elected representing 180 123 or their party. In this work, we conduct a large-scale analysis of the constituencies across the country based on a first-past-the-post 181 124 Twitter political campaigns of 539 candidates belonging to 16 major (FPTP) system where voters may only vote for one candidate in a 182 125 parties in India’s 2019 parliamentary elections to accurately quan- constituency and the candidate with the most votes, irrespective 183 126 tify the level of personalized politics by measuring the leader/party of whether they obtained the majority of votes, is declared the 184 127 centric nature of their social media campaigns. winner. Some seats of the Lok Sabha are reserved for members 185 128 With political leaders eclipsing the popularity of parties, down- of groups historically marginalized by the Hindu caste system, 186 129 stream parliamentary candidates who run on the party ticket must Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, to ensure proportional 187 130 also adapt their electoral campaigns to match this changing ful- representation in lawmaking. The party or coalition that holds a 188 131 crum. Anecdotally, in 2014 and 2019 elections, BJP candidates were majority of the seats in the Lok Sabha chooses the Prime Minister of 189 132 seen coat tailing on the party leader’s popularity and riding the India. Thus, voting in Lok Sabha parliamentary elections (or general 190 1 133 “Modi Wave” . However, we still do not know if these candidates elections) is central to choosing the Prime Minister, albeit indirectly, 191 134 uniformly campaigned using the leader’s name or if factors such through electing Members of Parliament (MPs). Elections to the 192 135 as incumbency or leader approval ratings tempered the central- Lok Sabha are held every five years unless it is dissolved earlier by 193 136 ity of leaders to their campaigns. In this work, we examine how the President. 194 137 candidate-level and constituency-level variables are associated with The Prime Minister and their government may be removed if 195 138 how much a candidate centers their leader in social media cam- the MPs pass a motion of no confidence in the Lok Sabha.