Summer Outlook Report
2018
APRIL 2018 Summer Outlook Report 2018 01
How to use this interactive document To help you find the information you need quickly and easily we have published the Summer Outlook Report as an interactive document.
Home A to Z This will take you to the contents page. You will find a link to the glossary You can click on the titles to navigate on each page. to a section. Hyperlinks Arrows Hyperlinks are highlighted in bold Click on the arrows to move throughout the report. You can click backwards or forwards a page. on them to access further information. Summer Outlook Report 2018 02
Welcome to the 2018 Summer Outlook Report. The report draws together analysis and feedback from across the industry to present a view of supply and demand for the summer ahead.
We had a great response to our • Winter Review and Consultation recent readership survey and – explores the actual energy I’d like to thank you for taking demand and supply patterns the time to share your views. and how they compare with our forecasts. This year it will include Acting on your feedback we have: an analysis of the recent cold • strengthened the information weather spell on both the gas we have included on the and electricity systems. We’ll markets we are connected to be publishing this in early June. • provided more commentary and background on the factors In them you can find out more affecting these markets about the evolution of the energy • provided more in-depth landscape, and how we’re analysis of the recent changes working with our stakeholders to the electricity generation to build and operate the gas and capacity profiles of a number electricity systems of the future. of major European countries Thank you for taking the time to read • concentrated on the impact of this year’s Summer Outlook Report. transit gas and the changing profile of LNG supplies to GB. To find out more, and register for email updates, go to our The Summer Outlook Report is website. We want to make sure just one in a suite of documents our publications are as useful from the System Operator to you as possible, so please let exploring the future of energy. us know what you think. You can I encourage you to read our email your feedback to us at other publications including: [email protected], • Response and Reserve Roadmap join the debate on Twitter – explores the complexity of using #FutureofEnergy balancing supply and demand in a changing energy landscape Fintan Slye • Future Energy Scenarios – will Director UK System Operator explore the longer term trends in the industry and how that may impact the energy mix from today to 2050. Look out for the FES 2018, which we’ll be publishing on 12 July 2018. Summer Outlook Report 2018 03
Contents
Executive summary...... 04 National Grid’s role...... 06 Chapter two Accessing further information...... 07
Gas...... 51 Chapter one Gas demand...... 52 Gas supply...... 59 Europe and interconnected markets...... 62 Electricity...... 11 Gas operational outlook...... 65 Electricity demand...... 12 Operational view including generation/supply...... 24 Chapter three Europe and interconnected markets...... 37 Electricity operational outlook...... 47 Appendix...... 70 Glossary...... 76 Summer Outlook Report 2018 04
Executive summary
The Summer Outlook Report is an annual publication delivered by National Grid each spring. It presents our view of the gas and electricity systems for the summer ahead (April to September). The report is designed to inform the energy industry and support their preparations for this summer and beyond.
Overview: Electricity summer 2018
Both peak and minimum transmission the daytime demands we see on the system demands this summer are expected transmission system are supressed by to be lower than the 2017 weather corrected it, which can make forecasting difficult. outturn. Minimum transmission system Solar PV and wind generation connected demand is expected to be 17 GW, this to the distribution networks have increased equates to 21.1 GW of underlying demand, to 12.9 GW and 5.7 GW respectively. only marginally lower than last summer’s Increased supply and demand variability minimum. Peak transmission system caused by these periods of low demand demand is anticipated to be 33.7 GW and high levels of renewable generation between the high summer months of June can create operability challenges. As a to August. We expect there to be sufficient result, we may need to take more actions generation and interconnector imports to curtail generation and possibly instruct to meet demand throughout the summer inflexible generators to reduce their output period. in order to balance the system.
The increase in distribution connected In our operational outlook chapter we generation, for example wind and solar explore these challenges and we continue PV, has contributed to this downward to work with industry participants trend in demands. Solar PV continues to develop the tools and services needed to impact the daily demand profile because to manage them. Summer Outlook Report 2018 05
Executive summary
Overview: Gas summer 2018
Gas from the UK and Norwegian Continental In the gas demand chapter, we explore Shelf, or ‘beach’ gas, is expected to be the how much of an impact the effect of weather dominant component of gas supplies into has on gas demand. The difference between GB this summer. We anticipate that gas a day with high wind and solar generation from the more flexible, ‘non-beach’ supplies, and a day with low wind and solar generation particularly interconnector imports and can amount to 20 per cent of demand on LNG will remain low. However, base a summer’s day. The change in demand LNG volumes are expected to be higher patterns can introduce significantly more than we have seen during winter periods. within day and day to day changes in Our analysis informs us that the total gas flows on the gas transmission system, and supply will be in excess of what is required reinforces the need for a more agile network. to meet GB demand. As a result, we expect to see GB sourced gas to be routed to This summer we expect to see one of the where the gas price is more attractive. highest volumes of maintenance on the gas Therefore we anticipate transit gas demand transmission system to date. Summer can on the network during the summer period. be a challenging time to manage supply and demand variability as well as providing The increase in renewable electricity access to the network even though GB generation not only has an impact demand is lower. on the operability of the electricity system, it also affects demand on We continue to work closely with our the gas system. Lower overall electricity customers to minimise the impact of demand, along with increased renewable maintenance during this busy period. generation, means there is less of a As we continue to see our customers requirement for gas fired electricity using the network in different ways, we generation. As a result, we expect will continue to develop the operational overall gas demand to be 35.7 bcm tools to manage the within day variations this year, slightly lower compared of supply and demand on the network. to summer 2017. Summer Outlook Report 2018 06
National Grid’s role
National Grid plays a vital role in connecting On the gas side, we own and operate the millions of people to the energy they use, high pressure gas transmission network for safely, reliably and efficiently. the whole of Great Britain. We are responsible for managing the flow of gas to our connected We own and manage the high voltage customers and businesses; working with other electricity transmission network in England companies to make sure that gas is available and Wales. We are also the System Operator where and when it is needed. of the high voltage electricity transmission network for the whole of Great Britain, We do not own the gas we transport and balancing the flows of electricity to homes neither do we sell it to consumers. That is and businesses in real time. the responsibility of the energy suppliers and shippers. We don’t generate electricity and we don’t sell it to consumers. It is the role of energy Together, these networks connect people suppliers to buy enough electricity to meet to the energy they use. their customer’s needs from the power stations and other electricity producers. Once that electricity enters our network, our job is to plan and operate the system to make sure supply and demand are balanced on a second-by-second basis. Summer Outlook Report 2018 07
Accessing further information
The Summer Outlook Report is just one of the together some of the other ways you can stay ways we provide information to and engage up-to-date throughout the year. with the industry. In this chapter, we’ve brought
Key publications from the System Operator
System Operator publications The For gas, these issues are considered in Summer Outlook Report is just one of the the Gas Ten Year Statement and Future documents within our System Operator Operability Planning publications. We share suite of publications on the future of energy. aspects of our analysis with the industry Each of these documents aims to inform the during the development of these documents energy debate and is shaped by engagement to make sure that the proposed solutions with the industry. meet the needs of our stakeholders.
The starting point for our analysis is the You can find out more about any of these Future Energy Scenarios (FES). This document publications, and how they incorporate insight considers the potential changes to the demand from our stakeholders, by clicking on the and supply of energy from today out to 2050. document front covers on the next page or by visiting our Future of Energy webpage. The network and operability changes that might be required to operate the electricity system in the future are explored in the Electricity Ten Year Statement, System Operability Framework and Network Options Assessment. Summer Outlook Report 2018 08
Figure 0.1 Key publications from the System Operator 2017/18
Network Options Winter Winter Outlook Outlook Report Assessment 2015/16 Report January 2018 October 2018
The options available to meet Our view of the gas and reinforcement requirements electricity systems for the on the electricity system. winter ahead.
Summer Network Options Assessment 2015 Electricity Ten Electricity Ten Year Statement 2015 Outlook Report UK gas electricity transmission Year Statement April 2018 November 2018
Our view of the gas and The likely future electricity systems for the transmission requirements
National Grid plc National Grid House, Warwick Technology Park, Gallows Hill, Warwick. summer ahead. CV34 6DA United Kingdom on the electricity system. Registered in England and Wales No. 4031152
www.nationalgrid.com
System Needs and Product Strategy April 2018
Our view of future electricity system needs and potential improvements to balancing services markets. Summer Outlook Report 2018 09
Accessing further information
Latest operational information
The information provided in our Outlook Gas reports is based on the best data currently To support market participants and other available to us. This outlook will change as interested parties, we publish a range of we progress through the summer. There are data on the operation of the gas transmission a number of sources of information you can network. The Market Information Provision access for the most up-to-date view, both Initiative (MIPI) publishes information required for electricity and gas. under UNC and EU obligations, as well as additional information we feel is useful for Electricity the market. Much of our electricity analysis is based on generation availability data provided to us by generators. This is known as Operational Code 2 (OC2) data. As generators update their plans each week, the picture of supply and demand will change. You can access the latest OC2 data, which is published each Friday, on the BM Reports website.
Our demand forecasts are regularly updated throughout the year. The demands published in this report are based on forecasts from March 2018. For the most up-to-date information, we encourage the industry to view our latest forecasts on the BM Reports website.
The System Operator Notification Reporting system (SONAR) provides real time operational information for market participants and members of the public. The system informs the market about certain changes that generators have made to their operational parameters, or instructions the Control Room may have issued to start up power stations. You can view these notifications and sign up for email alerts via the SONAR website. Summer Outlook Report 2018 10
Events
We host industry events throughout the year to changes. You can find out more about discuss the operation of the gas and electricity our gas and electricity operational forums systems, and debate important industry on our website.
Please tell us what you think
We want to make sure that we continue publication. You can share your feedback by to provide you with the right information to emailing us at [email protected]. support your business planning. To do this, we’d like to know what you think about this Chapter one 11 12 47 24 37 Operational generation/supply including view andEurope interconnected markets Electricity operational outlook
Electricity demand
one Chapter Chapter 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one Electricity assumptions can be found be of can at the end thisassumptions chapter. load ofa station 500 plus demand national on based are demands These demands. 2018. system transmission in this chapterare figures demand All view for of summer our demand current presents section This demand Summer Summer OutlookReport2018 • • • Key messages period is expected to be 33.7 to be expected is period summer high the for demand Peak to grow. continue will Distribution connected generation 2017. than lower be Overall will transmission demands MW. information the on demand Further GW.
• • to be 0.6to be Minimum summer demand is expected 1.1to be Daytime minimum is demand estimated GW lower than 2017 than GW lower 20.1 at GW lower than 2017 than GW lower 17 at GW. GW.
12 Chapter one 13
is the
is the forecasted forecasted the is demand varies varies demand
Weather corrected demand: corrected Weather transmission the on seen demand system, with the effect ofthe actual weather removed and the impact of added. weather normal (NIA): Allowance Innovation Network demand: Normalised estimate to trends term long using demand underlying demand with a 30 year average weather the for resolution) weekly a (on added. component Underlying demand: from depending day-to-day, on the weather and the day of week. Underlying demand is a measure of how much demand there is once the effects of the weather and the day of the week have been removed. is a set allowance each RIIO network licensee receives as part of their price control allowance. Its aim is fund to projects directly related the to Licensees network that have the potential deliver to benefits. financial • • • •
MW. MW.
the period the
At theAt same time, this is when we demand, higher experience normally increased the by driven predominantly use of cooling systems. High summer period: summer High between 1 June and August, 31 or weeks 35. It to is23 when we expect the greatest outages. generator planned of number Distribution generation: connected any generation that is connected the to to than rather network, distribution local includes also It network. transmission the combined heat and powerschemes of any scale. Generation that is connected the to distribution system is not directly visible to National Grid and therefore acts reduce to system. transmission the on demand 7 days ahead on our website. You can accessYou our latest daily distribution to up forecasts generation connected System Operator, sees at grid supply the to connections the are which points, demand includes It networks. distribution generating stations power the from 500 at load) station (the electricity Transmission system demand (TSD): demand system Transmission demand that National Grid, as the • • Key terms • 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one Electricity Ten lowestdemands Figure 1.1 2017, we saw the second lowest system 2017, system lowest second the saw we during the summer months. During summer to see expect can we that demand peak the with along demand of levels minimum the understand we that important is it aresult, As system. transmission the operate we how on impact an have demand low of Periods to day. day variability and demands low is The key characteristics of the summer period Overview Demand GW Summer OutlookReport2018 te e a
Date to the distribution networks. and non-weather generations) connected connected generation (both renewables distribution in increase to an due largely is demand in trend downward This alone. 2017 in occurred seven demands, system figure In 1.1, the of lowest out 10 that see we on actual weather including station load). based demand (actual record on demand
14 Chapter one 15
High summer peak peak summer High (GW) 37.5 36.3 34.4 33.7 Table 1.1 illustrates the gradual reduction gradual the illustrates 1.1 Table network. Because it is connected the to distribution system and is therefore not directly visible us, to it acts reduce to system. transmission the on demand in demandsyear on year along with our forecast demands for summer 2018. Day time minimum time Day (GW) 25.8 22.7 21.2 20.1 Summer minimum Summer (GW) 18.4 17.8 17.6 17.0
2018 (forecast) 2018 2015 2016 2017 Year Table 1.1 Table corrected summer system demands for the last 3 years and the forecast for 2018 Weather Our analysis suggests transmission demands demands transmission suggests analysis Our for the coming summer are likely be to lower than last year’s weather corrected outturn. This is mainly because of theincrease combined sources energy distributed in with an anticipated drop in the underlying to refer sources energy Distributed demand. distribution the to connected generation the Summer system demandSummer system 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one Electricity Weekly peakdemandoutturnfor2017againstour2018forecast Figure 1.2 the end of August) is 33.7 is August) of end the summer period (between June and high the for forecast demand peak 2018. for Our forecast our with along 2017, summer for demand peak weekly corrected weather 1.2 the shows Figure Weekly demand peak Demand GW Summer OutlookReport2018 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 13 Peak summerperiod
15 17 19 GW. 21 Forecast peak2018 23
25 Week number 27 underlying demand. underlying in distributed generation and a reduction in increase the of aresult as outturn corrected 700 is This 29 31 Peak 2017 MW lower than last year’s weather weather year’s last than lower MW 33 35 37 39 41 16 43 Chapter one 43
17
41
. 39 GW lowerGW 37 GW lowerGW 0.6 GW, 35 1.1 GW, 33 17.1 31 20.2 Weekly day time summer minimum 2017 29 than last year’s weather-corrected outturn. The summer minimum demand for 2018 is also forecast be to 17 than last year’s weather corrected outturn. transmission system because the availability availability the because system transmission of flexible plant during these periods is minimum summer daytime The reduced. demand is expected for 2018 be to approximately 20.1 in February For the latest 2018. forecasts, please visit our BM reports website 27 Weekly summer minimum 2017 17.0
Week number 25
23 20.1 17.1 21 19 17 15
. Demands published in this report 1 Peak summer period Weekly daytime summer minimum 2018 Weekly summer minimum 2018 13
20 19 18 17 16 23 22 21 15 24 30 27 26 25 29 28 Demand GW Demand https://www2.bmreports.com/bmrs/?q=demand/2-52-weekahead 1 In accordance with Grid Code, we publish our most recent forecasts on the BM reports website Figure 1.3 minimum demand outturns for 2017 and our forecast for 2018 Weekly In order support to the operationof the Summer minimum demandsSummer minimum system during the summer months, it is important consider to both the summer summer daytime the and demand minimum minimum demands. Historically, the lowest demand occurred overnight; with however, wind generation, renewable in growth the and solar the lowest PV, demand can now demands Minimum day. the during occur are becoming increasingly more significant the on demand and supply balancing when 2018 Report Outlook Summer are based on demand forecasts conducted Chapter one Electricity Summer OutlookReport2018 giving a total of 8.9 of atotal giving 900 approximately was wind and 8 was April 08 the for generation PV the demand on the transmission system. reduced day the during temperatures high solar PV and wind output, coupled with high distribution connected generation. by very caused was and April 09 and 08 This happened on two occasions, on the than the overnight minimum. lower fall demand minimum time day the electricity transmission system; we saw the on before experienced hadn’t we In summer 2017, we experienced something minimum demand Daytime Daytime minimumdemandvsovernight Figure 1.4 Demand GW te e a
GW. Similarly, on the the on GW. Similarly, ar MW, GW GW
Time high temperatures. high and wind with days PV high get we if repeated this to see likely We are dates. both for demand transmission the on distribution connected generation had that 1.4 effect the figure in We see periods of low demand. both to manage time of ahead equipped well were Room Control the meant day generation. Accurate forecasts on the 9.4 of total to 1.9 increased had wind to 7.5 dropped had outturn PV the whilst 9 April, GW compared to the previous day, previous to the GW compared ht e e GW of distribution connected connected GW distribution of a t e e e GW, giving a a GW, giving
18 Chapter one 19
Daytime
Sunset/sunrise Overnight During the summer months, demand profiles can change from day day to depending on the levels of renewable generation on the the on generation renewable of levels the Variability PV. solar particular, in system, on the system has increased as the amount which grown has generation renewable of managing when challenges creates ultimately generation Maximum solar operability. system demand the with coincides usually output lunchtime. after reduction when generation begins to reduce. reduce. to begins generation when when solar begins to generate and/or and/or generate to begins solar when The red bars represent the times when generation. solar no is there generation. The purple bars represent represent bars purple The generation. Time GW
Average demand
Demand range GW andGW a maximum peak of 35.4
Demand GW Demand Figure suggests 1.5 the daily minimum demand is likely occur to between 5am and 6am. Demand then increases until 8am, where it remains relatively flat until 4pm and then begins pick to up for the evening peak. Daily peak demand islargely influencedby the amount of solar radiation, for example, if it is a bright and sunny the peak day, demand is likely occur to either in the morning between 8am and 9am, or after sunset. The daytime demands between 9am and sunset are connected distribution by suppressed generation. solar In the daily half hourly demand profile in Daily demand profile figure 1.5, 1.5, demandfigure ranges from a minimum of 16.5 2018 Report Outlook Summer (please note this excludes the 500 MW station load). The orange bars represent the times solar of amount highest the is there when Figure 1.5 Daily half hourly demand profile from the high summer period 2017 Daily half hourly demand Chapter one Electricity to late sunset times and the amount of solar solar of amount the and times sunset to late due 23 to 30 weeks during 9am and 8am between to occur likely is demand peak weather. Our analysis suggests daily summer the peak demand based on seasonal normal Figure 1.6 shows our estimated timings for Estimated summerpeakdemandtimings Figure 1.6 demand peak Summer Peak demand GW Summer OutlookReport2018 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 13 Peak aftersunset
15 17 19 21 Peak before9am 23 25 Week number 27 of solar PV generation. amount the by impacted significantly is generation. The daily peak demand 29 31 33 35 37 39
41
20 43 Chapter one 21 e e ep ar re a t ar apa t GW by February by GW 2018. ep ar ep Distribution connected solar capacity had had capacity solar connected Distribution increased 12.9 to Month ar a a ar tp t ep ar ep ar ep
ar a a ar re a t the ar apa t
Solar capacity/output (MW) capacity/output Solar Figure 1.7 showsFigure historic 1.7 solar PV capacity output. maximum generation daily and growth It also includes our year ahead (March 2018 Februaryto forecast 2019) for both installed capacity and maximum daily output. Distribution connected solar generation Figure 1.7 Historic and forecast PV capacity and daily maximum outputHistoric and forecast PV 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one Electricity 1. 500 of load astation plus demand national on based are demands transmission system demands. These are chapter this in figures demand All Assumptions Summer OutlookReport2018 last 12 months. the over levels demand underlying the assumption is based on the analysis of 2017. summer with 500 Our compared 500 to be likely is This week. of day and weather of impact the demand isUnderlying corrected for MW lower in 2018 in lower MW MW.
MW MW
3. 2. be broadly flat this summer. summer. this flat broadly be to 5.7 has increased from 4.8 from increased has Distribution connected wind capacity end of March 2019. March of end 14.7around Our long range forecast models assumes 110 a assumes forecast ahead 2-52 weeks our 2018 12.9 was February in Distribution connected solar PV capacity MW increase in the capacity per month. month. per capacity the in increase MW GW, and we anticipate it will will it GW, anticipate we and GW of solar capacity by the by the capacity GW solar of GW in 2017GW in GW. Currently GW. Currently
22 Chapter one 23
our solar forecasts. forecasts. solar our Another NIA project we are a part of focuses on the methods used translate to solar into values radiance solar forecast with collaboration Our generation. power the University of Reading proposed a new day of time and seasonal incorporating model effects, which is currently being assessed. areWe also involved in a three month venture with the Alan Institute Turing for Data Science. This has resulted in a new artificial intelligence model, forecasting power solar based solar PV forecasts. All solar power forecasts forecasts power solar All forecasts. PV solar rely on an accurate prediction of the weather, in this case solar radiance; this has proven a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) sponsored meteorologist from the University of Reading. The project will focus information meteorological extra whether on and data can be used guide to and adjust at improvements accuracy shown has which 7 days ahead. are We also in the process of model. forecasting future a as this evaluating These projects are serving improve to and monitoring and forecasting PV solar ultimately improve to our demand forecasts. areWe also continuing explore to further improvements the enhance to opportunities we have already seen, all of which help us to accurately more demand and supply balance economically. and to beto a dominant source of PV forecasting Ourerror. NIA partnership with the Met Office has ledto a new post-processing technique, which had an immediate expect we and 2017 summer during impact seeto further improvements during 2018. From summer we will be joined 2018, by
https://www.solar.sheffield.ac.uk/pvlive National Grid is involved in a number of projects with external partners to improve the monitoring and forecasting of solar generation.PV Because all solar is connected the to National historically networks, distribution Grid, as the System Operator, has no visibility generation. solar from metering live of This has meant that accurately forecasting With challenging. proved has demand since capacity increasing PV solar installed component important an become has it 2011, in our demand forecast. improve the To accuracy of our demand forecasts, we have launched a number of projects help to us to tackle this directly. The result of this work has we had seenmeant a that summer by 2017, marked improvement in our daytime demand forecasting accuracy. As a result, our average midday demand error has reduced. Our NIA partnership with Sheffield Solar continues provide to near-real time estimates Together outturn. power solar national of we have developed a system produce to localised outturns at each of the Grid 327 Supply Points in the UK. These datasets are network and monitoring live for invaluable framework the providing as well as planning, buildto solar power forecasting models. areWe now in discussion continue to this collaboration provide to high frequency data which will supply 5 minute solar outturn data, rather than the current 30 minute outturn data, as well as improving and time Real further outturn values. validating accessed be can output generation PV solar here areWe also involved in a number of other projects which address the accuracy of our Spotlight: Forecasting solar generation and Allowance Innovation Network (NIA) projects 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one generation/supply view including Operational generators to of low take periods during demand. generators toof and summer determine we the actions may ask for week each surplus of apicture operational to present We provided to data and by us this data use generators. historic performance on view isbased operational Our Summer OutlookReport2018 • • • Key terms • Key messages Flexible generation: type. station power each for rates outages and assumed breakdown planned notified both includes It basis. aweek-by-week on modelled generation expected to be available, and demand of level the between Operational surplus: maintenance outages. generation availability and planned current their includes It by generators. Grid to National provided information 2(OC2): Code Operational interconnector scenarios. all under September and April of months throughout summer including the shoulder weeks all in requirement reserve our and demand normalised to meet able We are most large wind farms. farms. wind large most and storage pumped units, gas and such as interconnectors, some coal output, their to change to requests quickly respond can that generation
types of
the difference data: data:
• • • generators and wind farms. farms. wind and generators hydro some and stations, (CHP) power and generation include nuclear, combined heat inflexible of Examples generate. can they when influence that obligations have or Mechanism Balancing the in participate not do output, their up ramp or down to step periods notice long require that generation Inflexible generation: and demand. supply to balance order in output, their reduce to generators inflexible to instruct have may we that apossibility is There cooling or both in the same month. same the in both or cooling or heating either for demand cause can Yet, months. they driven cooling they are nor months, driven heat technically not are months: Shoulder
are those months that that months those are
types of
24 Chapter one 25 t . ep MW and a range of BM Reports website BM h rt ter perat re er e requirement of 900 interconnector flows,to provide a week-by- surplus. operational the of view week consider not does view operational The any market response generators by high to availability The conditions. tighter or demand includes those with capacity market contracts that are only incentivised run to during a system stress event. know We that generators have greater flexibility in planning summer outages and, as market prices change reflectto the level of operational surplus, to decision commercial a take may generators programme. maintenance planned their move For the most up-to-date information, we the view regularly industry to the encourage each published is which data, OC2 latest Friday on the Date
a pr
e e erat th ter e t r p rt e e erat th a ter e t r p rt Assumed generation with medium interconnector flows a r a e a re a e p rt ar
GW Figure 1.8 Operational view summer 2018 we apply a breakdown rate the to OC2 data. The breakdown rate is based on the units availability, maximum export limit (MEL), during the highest demand days over summer or winter excluding units we know are on planned outage. This is done unit by but grouped and applied fuel by type. The data normalised forecast against modelled then is transmission system demand, plus a reserve Our operational view is based on current current on based is view operational Our Operational called data availability generation Code 2 (OC2) data. Thisis submitted weekly generators.by In our analysis we have used data provided March us to on 15 2018. The OC2 data includes generators’ account To outages. maintenance planned breakdowns, generator unexpected for time, real to close losses or restrictions Operational view 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one generation/supply view including Operational period, between June and August. summer high the during seen typically are these factors, the lowest levels of generation of aresult As to run. notice days’ afew require can units These generate. to profitable it make to to alevel increased price the if or them, have they if contracts, Market Capacity their to fulfil become available if there was an obligation to them 2018. expect Wesummer would during mothballed temporarily to be stations conditions, we expect some coal power economic current on Based prices. market stronger and demand higher is there when ensure their availability over the winter months to maintenance out to carry period this use power stations. This is because power stations reduce the available generation capacity from In the summer months, maintenance outages March. 15 on by generators to us provided data OC2 the on based is It period. summer the for forecast demand normalised weekly the against flows, generation and differing levels of interconnector weekly expected the 1.8 compares Figure Summer OutlookReport2018 imports orimports exports. interconnector include not does Reports BM to calculate the operational surplus. Data on to this compared then are reserve of a level and week the for demand peak forecast The month. each for factor load assumed an at included is which wind, of exception the with breakdowns; for derating include not does it that means which unadjusted largely is website Reports BM the on presented data the Unlike the operational view presented here, the on Friday each published data, OC2 latest the view regularly information, we encourage the to industry of operational surplus. For the most current potentially increasing or decreasing the level forecast demand will alter this outlook, and generation notified to the Changes to us. available currently data best the imports. Our operational view is based on of September, even with low interconnector the summer period, into the shoulder month throughout and week, this in requirement reserve our and demand normalised to meet able We are scenario). interconnector low the 42.1 minimum available generation is expected to be the data, operational current on Based GW in the week commencing 9 July (under (under 9July commencing week the GW in BM website Reports
.
26 Chapter one 27
Pumped storage GW forGW each week of our 0.8 Biomass 1.1 9.2 2.9 2.4 wind or solar forecast will increase the level. we haveHowever, assumed a real time reserve requirement of 0.9 analysis. This is shown in1.8 figureas a purple bar above the maximum normal demand. capacity generation Available 3. 2018 summer during capacity generation the shows 1.9 Figure 2018. summer during available be to expected This is from the maximum declared availability from the OC2 data, per unit, fuel by type, for the summer period. Later on we will apply a de-rating factor account to for breakdowns outages planned include and restrictions and decreased ability having plant in result will which generateto at its normal level for a particular generation the only includes capacity The week. that is connected the to transmission system and submits data This OC2. to is higher than last year due the to increase in installed wind capacity and some coal and gas plants that were expected close remaining to in 2018 open. 4.00 29.4 13.5 11.8 Capacity Coal Wind Interconnector MW of MW) and interconnector Hydro CCGT
Nuclear OCGT
0
20 10 50 40 30 80 70 60 GW Available generation capacity for summer 2018 generation capacity for summer Available Figure 1.9 1. Demand 1. The demand used in our operational view is (TSD) demand system transmission normalised This chapter. ‘demand’ the in mentioned as takes in account to the rise in output from the generation connected distribution in increase The demand. in reduction a as acts which demand also includes the power used by electricity producing when stations generating (the station load at 500 exports. have We assumed 1000 export Ireland to across the Moyle and EWIC period. demand peak the during interconnectors The and IFA BritNed interconnectors are treated as a source of generation. 2. Reserve be able manage to To the second-by-second regulation of system frequency and respond supply, and demand in changes sudden to National Grid is required maintainto a level of reserve. In reality, this level of reserve varies high A conditions. system on depending daily Assumptions 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one generation/supply view including Operational the historic wind farm load factor distribution distribution factor load farm wind historic the realistic scenario. This is calculated from a as factor aload use we summer, this could reasonably expect from wind generation we output weekly much how To determine Assumed breakdownratesforsummer2017 Table 1.2 1.2. table in shown are rates These type. generation each for rate a breakdown assume we analysis, our in this for To account generator breakdowns or availability reductions. unexpected be may there time, to real closer maintenance outages. As mentioned earlier, generators only includes their planned by to us provided data operational The breakdown Generator 4. Summer OutlookReport2018 CCGT OCGT Pumped storage &Biomass Coal Wind generation Hydro generation Interconnectors Nuclear type station Power
12% 8% 3% 13% 84% 5% 0% 8% Assumed breakdown rate
• • • the wind being either higher or lower than this. this. than lower or higher either being wind the of chance cent per a50 is there means This ascenario. as analysis our in 16of cent per 1.10. factor load wind median the We use figure in shown is and daytimes summer for They are based on the following: to us, and was therefore planned. therefore was and to us, notified was outage the if zeroes excludes it the 80th percentile than higher peaks demand on capacity, its against output aunits from taken are they 3years last the over rates breakdown summer historic
28 Chapter one 29 MW, MW,
MW. MW. MW, MW, MW. MW, resultingMW, MW expected to demand: Low imports of 500 in a net export of 500 Medium base case of 1,800 resulting in a net import of 800 Full interconnector imports of 3,000 resulting in a net import of 2,000 The three interconnector scenarios listed scenarios listed interconnector three The which Ireland, to export full assume below, adds 1,000 • • • Wind load factor
a a t r
Percentage probability of exceeding of probability Percentage Our analysis is based on three possible peak of periods for scenarios interconnector demand, shown the by graph in1.8. figure Each scenario includesa varying level of import on details Further Europe. Continental from ‘Europe the in found be can interconnectors chapter. markets’ interconnected and Interconnectors Figure 1.10 Summer daytime wind load factors Summer daytime wind 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one generation/supply view including Operational to maintain sufficient frequency response. response. frequency sufficient to maintain further reduce or to increase ability the have still and demand, of level that to meet enough low output their to reduce able to be system the on generation flexible sufficient is there that sure to make need we aresult, As in generator availability closer to real time. reductions and errors forecasting for account to is This levels. reserve regulating negative and positive to maintain necessary also is It loss. demand or generation largest to the to respond needs still system However, the demand. to meet system the on needed units generation fewer are there result, as As from distribution connected solar generation. output ahigher and winter with compared lighting and heating for a requirement of less is there because is This system. transmission the on see we demand the in reduction asignificant is there summer, the In of low periods during demand System operability Summer OutlookReport2018
summer and can be found on our forecasts are updated weekly throughout the These week. each for demands minimum expected current against generation inflexible of levels model we demand, low of periods to to respond summer this to take need may we that actions the To to understand us help demand and is a routine action. aroutine is and demand increasing of amethod is this 70of percent; factor load assumed an at included is demand as a weekly resolution. Pumped storage figure 1.11 in shown is This maintained. to be required are which reserve and response for generation producing electricity, plus volumes inflexible this to keep want we Ideally demand. minimum forecast the against generation inflexible de-rated to stack need we issues operability potential To understand
website . 30 Chapter one 31 t ep Inflexible hydro As we approach real time, these requirements weather, the upon depending change may available generation the and conditions wind willon We the continue day. update to this forecast during the summer. will We inform and engage with inflexible generators where actions have been exhausted on flexible generation and further balancing is required (please appendix). see Plant total providing regulating reserve Date Inflexible wind
Minimum demand incl. pumping a Inflexible BMUs (e.g. CHP) pr
Plant providing voltage support ear ter e t r p rt a ter tra e e a ar
GW Based on current data, we can see that inflexible generation expectedis exceedto periods during line) (blue demand minimum of the summer. As a consequence, we anticipate that we will be asking pumped storage units increase to demand more by than the assumed level moving by water back theirto top lakes, and trading further reduce to imports. interconnector of level the Figure 1.11 Weekly minimum demand and generation profiles minimum demand Weekly 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one generation/supply view including Operational Weekly minimumdemandandgenerationprofilesincludingflexible windoutput Figure 1.12 afternoon. the in and overnight running generators flexible connected solar capacity) and fewer summer minimum (with more distribution the at demand reduced to see continue we as future, the in to increase likely is farms to wind issue we instructions of number The them to reduce their output for a period. short curtailment instructions if necessary, asking issue us to allows farms wind of flexibility The to sudden changesin demand and supply. to respond frequency system of regulation second-by-second the to manage units, on back holds Grid National that generation wind. Regulating is reserve the amount of high of times in farms wind large on reserve regulating of aproportion to carry economic continues to increase, it has become capacity wind installed of amount the As Modelling flexible windgeneration GW Summer OutlookReport2018 ar Minimum demandincl.pumping ear Plant totalproviding regulatingreserve Inflexible wind
pr Inflexible BMUs(e.g. CHP) a Flexible wind
Date Minimum demand import onimport the interconnectors. pumping, and trades conducted to reduce out in economic order, along with increased wind conditions. This action will be carried across the summer period, depending on trades. There is of a possibility curtailment by direct or Mechanism Balancing the via will out either beThis curtailment carried demand. exceed not does supply that to ensure summer this curtailed to be need will it requirements, reserve regulating and response frequency the to meeting contribute not does wind flexible if that shows It 51 of cent. factor per load wind same the top), the at assuming bars pink (the output minimum cumulative to the added been has output figure In 1.12,farm wind flexible Plant providingvoltage support Inflexible hydro I/C importsaftertrades ep
t
32 Chapter one 33 .
In our analysis, we have only considered level. national a at curtailment wind possible It is also possible that we may need curtail to wind at a local level this summer. Local issues are likely be to caused constraints by on the system resulting from faults, maintenance or networkdesign. They may result in a higher level of generation in a geographical area than is needed or that can be safely exported otherto areas of the electricity network. can findYou out more about constraints in the appendix, or accessing by the latest forecasts for potential wind curtailment on our website 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one generation/supply view including Operational out more about expected interconnector flows flows interconnector expected about more out You find can loss. interconnector the of size the by limiting issues (RoCoF) frequency of change of rate to resolve take would it trades of number areasonable plus GB and Europe on the price differential between Continental based is This to interconnectors. factor load a apply We also periods. demand minimum based on historic availability over previous 1.3, table are in shown are which factors, factor to each generation type. These load aload apply we afternoon, the during or morning early either demand low of periods generation is likely to be available during inflexible much how to determine order In factors 1. Load Assumptions Modellinginflexible generation Summer OutlookReport2018 Inflexible loadfactorassumptionsatminimumdemand Table 1.3 Interconnexion France-Angleterre BritNed WestEast interconnector Moyle interconnector wind inflexible and Flexible hydro Inflexible (CHP) units Mechanism Balancing Inflexible Nuclear Generator type
0.70 0.70 0.5 0.5 51 0. 0.5 0.5 0.9 Load factor aim to do in advance of an issue. an of advance in to do aim would we which action trade after are flows low demand scenario. The interconnector arealistic to represent chosen are factors load other The this. than lower or higher being wind the of chance cent per a50 is there Again, 51 of cent. factor per load a wind assume to can we occur, demand lowest the days where we might reasonably expect the of one least at on that shows This figure 1.13. from determined is wind inflexible and flexible for factor load The appendix. the in found be can RoCoF markets’ chapter. More information about this summer in the ‘Europe and interconnected
34
Chapter one 35
of different types of generators over the course of a typical mid-summer It is based day. on It does not includedata August from 2017. 17 solar or embedded wind because these are embedded and therefore do not make up the generation or demand connected transmission expectwhichWe is illustrated in1.14. figure generator output follow to a similar pattern As an example, figure 1.14 shows the Asoutput an example, 1.14 figure 2018. summer in Wind load factor
a a t r
Percentage probability of exceeding of probability Percentage Generation merit order A generation merit order describes the the describes order merit generation A sequence in which generators provide energy the to market at any given time. It is predominantly based on the cost of producing it, for each type of generator. sold be can energy which at price The depending day, the throughout varies on the levels of demand and generation system. transmission the on capacity The most cost-efficient power stations feature first in the merit providingorder, continuous baseload. as known day, the across output Less cost-efficient generators may respond peaksto in demand, when the price at which higher. is sold be can electricity Figure 1.13 Wind load factors at minimum demand Wind 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one generation/supply view including Operational is typically from gas and coal-fired power power coal-fired and gas from typically is output generator variable most the efficiency, and costs input their of aresult As blowing. is wind the when run only can However, it costs. fuel no has it as order merit the in early features baseload in the summer. Wind generation also the of proportion 1.14, alarge provide typically figure in shown as stations, power Nuclear Summer OutlookReport2018 Output MW Generator outputforatypicalmid-summerday Figure 1.14 t e t r C a ear
C ter e t r pe t ra e Time they will be more economical to dispatch. of coal in the generation merit order, as ahead feature to likely are units gas-fired prices, current of analysis on Based as demand varies throughout the day. their output in response to price signals the marginal plant and are able to adjust stations. These power stations are called r ther a ea t e t r C
36 Chapter one 37
types of of types
Inflexible generation: Inflexible types of of types generation: Flexible generation that can respond quickly to requests change to their output, such as units gas and coal some interconnectors, and most large wind farms. generation that require long notice periods stepto down or rampup their output, do not participate in the Balancing Mechanism or have obligations that influence when they can generate. Examples of inflexible heat combined nuclear, include generation and power (CHP) stations, and some hydro generators and wind farms. Further nuclear outages in France are not likely impact to margins, even during the months. shoulder exports of electricity on interconnectors interconnectors on electricity of exports imports to switching peak, during Ireland to wind. high periods of during and overnight • • • interconnector availability for summer 2018 2018 summer for availability interconnector based on outages, forward pricing and activity in Continental Europe. All of these factors may affect interconnector flows into or out of GB.
the difference difference the
information provided National to Operational surplus: Operational Operational Code Section 2 (OC2) data: Grid generators. by It includes their and availability generation future outages. maintenance planned between the level of demand and available, be to expected generation modelled on a week-by-week basis. and outages planned both includes It assumed breakdown rates for each type. station power GB forward prices for summer are 2018 expected remain to higher than markets in Europe. Continental Based on historical views and forward prices we expect there be to net imports from interconnectors the on electricity of net expect also We Europe. Continental • Key terms • • Key messages • Overview Our and Europe chapter interconnected markets explores interconnector behaviour and provides behaviour interconnector explores generationand renewable neighbouring in countries. 2018 Report Outlook Summer market insights into the impact to GB, of pricing GB, of impact to the insights into market The direction which interconnectors flow is determined price, by which in turn is influenced theby weather, and the amount of renewable at looks chapter This available. generation Europe and interconnected markets Chapter one Europe and interconnected markets interconnected and Europe this under review. under this keep however, will we operability; or supply of security impact adversely not would this At present, time. same the at outage on being BritNed IFA both and in result or BritNed of start planned the IFA of impact may return to the delay Any IFA’sof outage. September completion the of days afew within is outage BritNed second the of start the We that note outages. these of both during to 0 reduce will capability The inclusive. September through until 21 September 14 for to 18 17 May and May scheduled summer this outages planned two are There Netherlands. the and GB between capability a1 has interconnector BritNed The to 1 reduce will inclusive. During these the periods capability 03 September through until 14 September and 18 to June 29 for June scheduled are for essential maintenance. These outages outages planned two from apart summer this 2 full its at to be expected then 1.5 of capability areduced with outage afault under currently is GB, and France between interconnector Interconnexion France-Angleterre (IFA), the France and Netherlands The patterns. flow occasional variations to interconnector expect we aresult, As temperature. in changes by caused fluctuations demand increase in renewable generation and the of aresult as is This sources. energy distributed and demand on influence the of because price impacts weather The Interconnectors Summer OutlookReport2018 GW. GW until the end of April. It is is It April. of end the GW until GW capability GW capability GW GW
GW GW
the night and periods of high wind. wind. high of periods and night the interconnectors, turning to during imports (EWIC) interconnector West East and Moyle the both on times peak during to Ireland to export We expect market. GB the of favour in spreads price positive 2018 indicate summer for markets Dutch and French GB, The forward seasonal prices between the 0.5 Ireland 0.5 GW GW 2 GW France 1GW Netherland
38 Chapter one 39
GW Moyle interconnector Northern to Ireland is expected be to at full capability throughout thesummer however, maximum 2018, flow is subject Transmission to Entry Capacity values. (TEC) increased have capacities solar while significantly in the Netherlands, Belgium and GB. Gas and coal capacities are generally decreasing. Nuclear capacity has reduced in Germany since last summer and although the increase in its renewable capacity is not as great as other countries, the total renewable capacity has reached a new record of 94 which equates per cent 47 to of total capacity. GW GW. The 0.5 GW. GW to 0 to GW Renewable generation capacity including generation Renewable wind, solar and biomass also continues to grow in Continental Europeand GB. These a towards contribute types now generation Figure mix. generation the of proportion larger generation the in increases the shows 1.16 components in GB and neighbouring countries (negative 2018 values to from are 2017 shown wind onshore that chart The shows blue). in capacities have increased in each country, Increase in renewable generationIncrease summer 2017 since renewable in The East West Interconnector (EWIC) is currently under a fault outage with zero capability until 29 March. It will be on a planned outage for 9 days starting May through 01 until capability its time this During inclusive. May 09 will reduce from 0.5 Ireland 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one Europe and interconnected markets interconnected and Europe hours. Excessgeneration during these periods in respect of increased wind and sunshine the weather has exceeded the seasonal norm correlation between price and periods when wholesale electricity prices. There is a clear on pressure downward put can capacity The increase in wind and solar generation Changes ingenerationmixGBandneighbouringcountries Figure 1.15 2 Summer OutlookReport2018 Source of data: https://transparency.entsoe.eu/generation/r2/installedGenerationCapacityAggregation/show Country Fossil
gas Fossil coal Nuclear MW o shore market and other near term markets. term near other and market intraday the on fluctuations price in increase an see may we sources, energy renewable of the potential variation in outputs from aresult However, as countries. European via the interconnectors between Continental markets higher-price to the to transfer likely is Wind onshore 2 Wind Solar Biomass
40 Chapter one 41
t er epte er t output from the French nuclear fleet and tightened supply margins in France. This led to electricity forward French in increases notable prices. As a result, GB witnessed full exports to France across regularly IFA during theperiods availability. reduced of shows the capacityFigure expected 1.16 be to affected French by nuclearoutages for summer The capacity2018. on outage this summer is much lower compared summer to 2017 and therefore is not expected significantly to impact flows IFA between GB andFrance.
e
a pr GW of nuclearGW generation, the
ar h
GW Figure 1.16 French nuclear plants outage for extra safety inspections due an to anomaly in the carbon concentrationof steel in the steam generator. As a result, nuclear 20 reactors were taken out of service for repair These pipes. station pumping on work total the reduced outages unexpected highest among GB’s neighbouring countries; countries; neighbouring GB’s among highest this represents almost 62 per cent of its of availability The capacity. generation total these nuclear plants significantly impacts the total generation in France, which in turn can influence flows acrossIFA. For example, in reactors 12 were shut down winter 2016/17, France has 63 Nuclear availability in France in Nuclear availability 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one Europe and interconnected markets interconnected and Europe Market (I-SEM). Market Electricity Single 2017of Integrated the under end the at live became and Ireland Northern and Ireland in arrangement market electricity T-1 auction was a of part the new wholesale 128 (de-rated Ballylumford at unit 439 (de-rated Kilroot at units 2017. coal-fired two included This 15 on (SEMO) December Operator Market Market auction held by the Single Electricity T-1 Ireland the in Capacity contracts capacity to win failed Ireland Northern in units Three Moyleand interconnector closures plant Ireland Northern Summer OutlookReport2018 MW) and one gas-fired gas-fired one and MW) MW). The The MW). operational before 2021. be not will Interconnector North-South Ireland’s that given Ireland Northern in demand to meet Interconnector Moyle the via UK the from imports strong encourage might This costs. fixed to cover payment market capacity theybecause were in securing unsuccessful is This 2018 respectively. 31 December and 23 May on Ballylumford at unit the and Kilroot at units two the to close likely is it that announced has units three the of owner The
42
Chapter one 43 3
EWIC (outage EWIC corrected) (outage EWIC corrected) 58% 1% 41% 90% 1% 9% EWIC EWIC 38% 21% 41% 70% 21% 9%
interconnectors were exporting to Ireland to exporting were interconnectors on average 50 49 per to cent of the time last in summarised is information This summer. table 1.5. interconnectors Ireland, to Moyle and EWIC, were importing into GB over 86 per cent of the time. BritNed BritNed 96% 3% 1% 95% 2% 3% Moyle Moyle 44% 0% 56% 86% 0% 14% IFA IFA 90% 0% 10% 95% 0% 5%
Import Floating Export Peak Times Peak (7am-7pm) Overnight (7pm-7am) Import Floating Export The last column is for outage-time corrected EWIC flows as there was an outage on EWIC between18/4-26/5 2017. We alsoWe see high imports from and the IFA BritNed interconnectors during Both the day. were importing into GB over 90 per cent of the The Moyletime and in EWIC summer 2017. 3 Table 1.5 Table Interconnector flows at peak We seeWe that overnight, and the IFA BritNed interconnectors were importing into GB over 95 per cent of the time in while summer the 2017 Table 1.4 Table Interconnector flows overnight The actual flows last summer via the four 1.4. table in summarised is interconnectors Historical views of interconnector of Historical views flows and forward and flows price spreads 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one Europe and interconnected markets interconnected and Europe Figure 1.18 shows that the forward baseload 1.18 baseload Figure forward the that shows years. to previous 2018 similar are summer for markets European Continental and GB between spreads price forward current The Day aheadbaseloadpriceinsummer2017 Figure 1.17 in than 2017, higher summer were prices GB countries indicating that most of the time during neighbouring and GB in curves price electricity Figure 1.17 shows the day-ahead baseload Summer OutlookReport2018 £/MWh ar a e a
pr a re h a e a a imports from IFA and BritNed as last summer. last as BritNed IFA and from imports similar to see expect would we therefore and markets Dutch the and French the in prices the than 2018 higher are GB in summer for prices BritNed interconnectors. IFA the and via to GB imports consistent saw we why hence and Netherlands the and France ether a a e a ep er a a e a t t 44 Chapter one 45 e a er a a e a a e e Based on historical analysis and current forward price spreads, it is expected that full imports into GB via both the BritNed and throughout likely more is interconnectors IFA some be may there although 2018, summer fluctuating flows during peak times. Based on historical analysis, current forward closures, plant possible and spreads price we expect GB export to Ireland to during peak times on both the Moyle and EWIC off- importing during whilst interconnectors, peak. would We also expect imports into GB Ireland. in output wind high periods of during ether a a e a • •
re h a e a t t
a e a t
Renewable generation is weather dependent dependent weather is generation Renewable and this may increase price fluctuations GB forward prices for summer are 2018 expected remain to higher than in the French, Dutch and German markets. Continental in lower remain prices Forward European markets than forward prices in GB due the to increase in renewable energy transition gradual a and capacities, installed from old coal-fired plants. on the intraday market and other near term markets. £/MWh • • • Assumptions on interconnector flows summer 2018 flows on interconnector Assumptions Figure 1.18 2018Forward prices for summer 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter one Europe and interconnected markets interconnected and Europe • • • interconnectors: BritNed IFA and via includesscenario a level varying of imports interconnectors during peak times. Each (1000 The following scenarios assume full export Interconnector net flows2018 summer (7am to 7pm) times peak during interconnectors the on flows Forecast Forecast flowsontheinterconnectorsduringpeakandoff-peaktimes Figure 1.19 Summer OutlookReport2018 500 MW GB market. GB 2,000 of import anet in resulting 3,000 of imports interconnector Full 800 of import a net in 1,800 of case base Medium 500 of export a net 500 of imports Low 500 MW MW) to Ireland via EWIC and Moyle Moyle and EWIC via to Ireland MW)
MW to GB market. to GB MW MW, resulting in in MW, resulting 2, MW to GB market. to GB MW 000 MW MW, resulting MW, resulting 1 , 000 MW MW to to MW MW,
off peak times (7pm to 7am) times peak off during interconnectors the on flows Forecast 500 MW 500 MW 2, 000 MW 1 , 000 MW 46 Chapter one 47
4
is the process that
System Operator Flagging Operator System connecting to the transmission system system transmission the to connecting naturally generate or absorb reactive power depending on their own and the systems’ characteristics at the time. Flows of reactive power have a direct impact on the voltage which network, the across seen levels must be closely monitored and managed. (SO-Flagging): (SO-Flagging): identifies Bid Offer Acceptances (BOAs) Services Balancing Adjustment and actions that are potentially taken for system SO-Flagging The reasons. balancing process isdocumented in the System Methodology Flagging Action Management Statement which is required under National Grid’s Transmission Licence. Cash-out prices may be more volatile. more be may prices Cash-out • •
the ability of describes the the describes
a measure of how
Reactive power: generation plant to alter its output. Head Head output. its alter to plant generation its below plant of operation the is room if increase to output allow maximum to necessary. Foot room describes the ability without output its decrease to plant of levels. output minimum below going inertia: System resilient system frequency is change. to These changes may be caused by disturbances such as a sudden drop in generation or demand, leading an to ‘mismatch’ underlying or imbalance supply. and demand between network. the across energy of movement It is measured in MVAr (mega volt amps reactive). Assets forming part of and Head room and foot room: of frequency (RoCoF) are expected due anticipatedto low demand. More actions manage to rate of change • • Key terms • Key messages • The System Management Action Flagging Methodology Statement is here: is Statement Methodology Flagging Action Management System The https://www.nationalgrid.com/sites/default/files/documents/APPENDIX%20D-SMAF.pdf https://www.elexon.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Imbalance_Pricing_guidance_v11.0.pdf 4 In our role as System Operator, National Grid must manage role our In as System Operator, a number of operabilitya number of issues demand. during periods low of these some issues, of outlines andThis chapter and tools the can sureservices we that make us to to are that available securely operate system the and to effectively. continue 2018 Report Outlook Summer Electricityoperational outlook Chapter one Operational outlook outlook Operational • • • • • might include the following: that can be called upon. These services actions and services footroom of selection a are low, there extremely is system the on To manage periods when negative reserve Footroom services appendix. the in found be can these of Most system. electricity the on demand and supply to balance employed be can that services balancing of anumber are There services Balancing to balance needed services the to forecast difficult it makes dependency weather This the output of renewable generation. affects it as weather the by influenced heavily are factors these of Both system. the on and high proportions of low generation inertia demand low are period summer the during key factors driving the operational challenges As we mentioned in previous chapters, the Overview Summer OutlookReport2018 Demand turn-up. Flexibility from nuclear power stations generators conventional on (SEL) Limit Contracts for decreased Stable Export Interconnector trading Balancing Mechanism De-synchronise units in the
plant on the system. the on plant by increasing the number of synchronous inertia to increase taken to be need also may Actions (BMUs). Units Mechanism Balancing losses such as interconnectors and large in-feed largest the of risk the to reduce taken to be need may Actions summer. this RoCoF the of management active to require continue will inertia system of levels Decreasing system. distribution transmission system, rather than their local wider the on happen that to events sensitivity their of because is This suitable. less become have shift vector and (RoCoF) frequency of change of rate as such techniques protection conventional generation, historic loss of mains renewable generation and the closure of in increase the to accommodate evolved have conditions system As configured. end consumers. and industry electricity to the risk and cost the between abalance to strike and service, of type right the procuring when considered is The probability of different weather conditions basis. week-by-week and aday-by-day on taken actions of number the in and services of use the in variations large be can there means This system. the of how their loss of mains protection mains of loss their how of tripping off distributed generators because the transmission system to avoid accidentally Historically, balancing actions were taken on protection mains of Loss 5 was was
48 Chapter one 49
Hz/s, MW have Bid Offer Acceptances in the Balancing Mechanism. Trading actions within-day, when running when within-day, actions Trading patterns are more volatile. Contracting with generators in advance uncertainty manage to periods longer for and risk. These contracts seek reflect to conventional of economics generation the guaranteed minimum a ensure and plant profitabilityto run during periods where the uneconomic. be otherwise would generator an increase in the number of actions needed manageto voltage. This is because weak demand low critical the for prices market periods leads less to flexible plant being temporarily shut down or ‘mothballed’, and flexible plant avoiding running overnight. running indicate it is prudent and cost- effective do to so. These actions include: 1. 2. 3. anticipateWe that in the future there will be as a suitable form of loss of mains protection. connections. new all to applies This depending on thecapacity. Almost all distribution connected sites over5 had their protection equipment adjusted. is period implementation year three the When successfully completed, the need manage to RoCoF will be relaxed. The modification also takes the first stepsto removing vector shift this became effective from February 2018. It has been modified so that distribution connected sites areable withstand to frequency changes between and 0.5 1.0
MW; , to align, to the RoCoF 5 For loss of mains protection, see appendix 5 Reactive power describes the movement movement the describes power Reactive of energy across the network. The flows of reactive power on the system will affect voltagelevels. Unlike system frequency, which ‘voltage the network, the across constant is profile’ variesby location based on prevailing real and reactive supply and demand. The energy and generation embedded of growth efficiency measures, coupled with the physical transmission and distribution the of properties networks, have all contributed the to falling reactive power demand. As transmission systemdemand continues fall, to the likelihood ofhigh voltage occurrences increases. System Operator actions manage to high voltage have therefore increased significantly over recent years, intensifiedby the running patterns of periods. demand low during generation In the short term, a number of tools exist that enable the running of specific generatorsto access their MVAr (units of reactive power) plant of indications forward where capability, Voltage Services manage to vector shift continue to evolve. In order reduce to the risk of accidental more networks, distribution the on tripping along pursued, being are actions targeted with modificationsto the Distribution Network Code. National Grid hasbeen working closely with the industry find to long-term solutions the by created challenges operational the to generators. distributed of tripping inadvertent Code Distribution approved has Ofgem DC0079 modification 2018 Report Outlook Summer limit constraint for generators below 5 Chapter one Operational outlook outlook Operational this renewable generation will provide that likely is it demand, low of At times management. constraint of use the in a reduction in balancing costs arising from renewable generation in Scotland and results to access greater allows This boundary. B6 the as known England, and Scotland between the constraints on the transmission networks to relief providing link, HVDC Western the through to flow 2017 late In began power link HVDC Western New connections Summer OutlookReport2018 connected generation. This will continue transmission connected and distribution from both constraints, to manage actions requiring network the of areas in resulted has under the Connect and Manage programme The swift growth in renewable generation made. been have reinforcements system completed, but before the wider transmission been have works enabling all once network new electricity generators to connect to the The Connect and Manage programme allows Managing local constraints sources energy Distributed 6 https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/docs/2007/11/connect-and-manage_phil_0.pdf
6
where system prices are negative. are prices system where occasions of number the in increase an and prices system of volatility the in increase an to be likely also is there link, HVDC Western the of commissioning the with reduce will noting, that whilst overall balancing costs worth is It prices). imbalance (energy prices system of calculation to the in feed will They SO-flagged. to be likely less are actions As the system congestion eases, these system. the on flexibility and footroom the affected areas. affected generation or increase demand in the to decrease order in available contracts and arrangements trading of number the develop to continue we areas, these manage help can that parties of number the To increase areas. & Galloway include theExamples Caithness and Dumfries them. to manage place in are arrangements market until or reinforced, is system the until
50 Chapter one 51 52 65 62 59 Gas demand
Gas supply andEurope interconnected markets Gas operational outlook
two Chapter Chapter 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter two Gas demand Gas factors affecting them. the of some examine and sectors different in demand forecast the at look will we chapter 2017. summer than lower this In slightly to be 2018 expected is summer for demand Gas Overview generation. heating, for for industry, and electricity for export In this for chapter for we gas demand look at the projected Summer OutlookReport2018 • • Key terms • • Key messages has been common in recent years. recent in common been has decrease due solely to the weather or increase cent A5per demand. in decrease or increase forecast any than bigger much is that heating for demand gas on effect an have can weather The summer 2017. in 2018 was it than summer in lower slightly to be expected is demand Gas industrial consumers. residential, commercial or smaller longer intervals. These are typically at or monthly read are meters gas where customers of a classification Non-daily metered (NDM) demand: therm. per pence in quoted usually is It the national balancing point of gas. called is This from. come has it where has one price for gas, irrespective of price: balancing pointNational (NBP) gas the wholesale gas market in Britain Britain in market gas wholesale the
• • demand on a summer’s day. asummer’s on demand of cent to 20 per amount can solar and wind low with aday and generation solar and wind high with aday between for electricity generation. The difference demand gas affects also weather The typically large-scaletypically consumers. are These daily. read are meters gas where customers of a classification Daily metered (DM) demand:
52 Chapter two 53 ep e tr t e erat a etere Seasonal normal weather conditions assume conditions weather normal Seasonal that the weather is neither hotter nor colder than the historical we average. In table 2.1, show demand summer as 2017 both an actual seasonal for corrected and value measured conditions. weather normal Month a etere ph a e p rt a
t ra e e t p rt t re a pr
mcm/d Our forecast gas demand for summer 2018, displayed as daily values, is shown in figure we summarise In table 2.1 demand as2.1. an aggregate value for the summer. Both the chart and table show the demand forecast conditions. weather normal seasonal under Total gas demand Total 2018 Report Outlook Summer Forecast gas demand profiles for summer 2018 Forecast gas demand profiles Figure 2.1 Chapter two Gas demand Gas Table 2.1 Summer OutlookReport2018 Forecast total gas demand for summer 2018 and history for previous summers Forecast totalgasdemandforsummer2018andhistoryprevioussummers which will lead to NDM demand reductions. reductions. demand to NDM lead will which factor dominant the to be insulation build new of efficiency increased the expect we years few next the Over built. are houses more as demand in increase an and insulation, and efficiency appliance to increased due balance between the reduction in demand a is heating for demand gas in trend The August. and July in day aweekend on to mcm 32 April, in 142 aweekday on mcm from ranges demand NDM that see can 2.1 figure In you customers. industrial commercial properties and some small This category includes residential properties, sector. (NDM) metered non-daily the in mostly is heating for used Gas important. also is speed wind factor, but important most the is Temperature weather. the of effects the to sensitive is heating space for used Gas for demand heating Gas years. previous compare we when levels demand total of emerging pattern 2.1, table from clear no is see we As there 1 bcm Total Storage injection Europe to Export generation Electricity Ireland (DM) + industrial Daily metered metered (NDM) Non -daily All totals include shrinkage and will therefore not tally. not therefore will and shrinkage include totals All 1
35.0 5.3 2.6 7.7 2.7 4.5 12.3 2013 33.8 3.6 3.8 9.2 2.7 4.4 9.9 2014
35.2 3.4 5.0 8.3 2.8 4.2 11.3 2015
slightly warmer than normal. value, indicating that the weather was corrected weather the than lower 0.4 bcm 2017 summer was for demand measured conditions. Table 2.1 shows that the actual have been under seasonal normal weather This illustrates what the demand would value. corrected aweather create we demand gas historical analyse we When 11 at demand bcm. corrected slightly higher than last summer’s weather to be demand NDM expect we aresult, As efficiency. energy improved from demand connections outweighing the reductions in new in increase the with balanced finely more is 2018, forecast the summer However, for 36.4 2.6 5.2 11.6 1.7 4.1 11.1 2016 36.6 2.5 7.0 10.5 1.6 4.4 10.4 actual 2017 36.9 2.5 7.0 10.5 1.6 4.4 10.8 corrected weather 2017 35.7 1.8 7.2 9.9 1.5 4.0 11.0 forecast 2018
54 Chapter two 55 In most years the weather corrected demand out turned has whole a as summer the for reasonably close our to forecast, though the much a shown has weather observed actual, greater spread. Over 2017 to the years 2011 the average difference between the weather corrected demand and our forecast for the summer was bcm. 0.3 For the actual demand the average difference from the forecast was bcm. 1.1 at larger, much weather the by uncertaintyThe introduced can mask any underlying change in the gas demand. Ifwe had seasonal normal weather would we 2018 summer and 2017 summer in expect a growth in NDM demand of 0.2 bcm, uncertainty bcm 1.1 the than smaller much due the to weather. Year
eather rre te t a
re a t
NDM demand (bcm) demand NDM Figure 2.2 The effect of weather on NDM demand In some years the effect of the weather is much greater than this. In figure2.2 you can see the effect that the weather has had on the NDM demand during summer since 2011. haveWe shown the forecast demand, the actual, observed demand, and the weather corrected demand. can see You that in the cold thewet summer NDM demand of 2012, was around bcm higher 1.8 than we would normal seasonal under expected have conditions. On the other hand, in the warmer the demand and 2017 2014 summers of 2011, was lower than would have beenexpected conditions. normal seasonal under The chart also shows how the weather affects the accuracy of our forecasts for the summer. 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter two Gas demand Gas is essentially flat across the summer. summer. the across flat essentially is 2.1, figure in area purple by the shown whole, a as sector the for Demand weather. the on dependence no or little show heating process manufacturing processes. Feedstock and as a feedstock, an ingredient for chemical used also is gas Some processes. industrial in heat for used is majority the heating, space for used is gas some Although customers. commercial and industrial large of up made mostly is sector (DM) metered daily The industrial load Daily metered demand and summer. of middle the in aday on demand gas total the of cent 20 per around represents which mcm, 30 electricity generation differed by around for demand Gas generation. of patterns similar total electricity demand but different 2017 summer with from days examined we generation, for demand gas influences wind and PV solar much how To understand lost. was generation fired gas of unit of renewable generation, one unit extra every for generation; fired gas and correlation between renewable generation 2017 agood summer saw we During generation. fired gas with replaced be can shining the lost wind or solar generation not is sun the or blowing not is wind the If 35. page on order merit generation the in summer this to run likely more are that stations power of types the about more out You find can markets. the price differential across interconnected and gas and coal between spreads by spark influenced also is generation electricity for Gas and an increase in renewable generation. the result of lower overall electricity demand is This summer. last than lower to be expected is generation electricity for Gas generation Electricity demand gas Other Summer OutlookReport2018
Belgium with no days of reverse flow. reverse of days no with Belgium 2017 towards all was flow summer In the months. winter the during to GB Belgium from and summer the of most for to Belgium GB from to flow tended has gas years, recent In Belgium. in price Zeebrugge the and GB in price gas NBP the between difference to the through the IUK interconnector respond well Flows to Zeebrugge. coast Norfolk the on Bacton connecting interconnector, IUK by the to Belgium connected is market gas GB The Europe to Exports summer. last than lower slightly to be exports aggregated over the summer period total the expect we summer this Overall field. Corrib the at outage an of because 2017 higher summer were in 2018. Exports summer during Moffat via GB from flows daily decrease to be replaced by slightly higher this expect we Consequently, to decline. beginning and peak its at less or more is field Corrib the from Production supply. total the of cent per 40 around up make Moffat through GB from Exports field. Kinsale the from supply small a with field, Corrib by the provided is Ireland in gas the of half than More summer. the across demand flat 2.1 figure in shows area blue pale The flow. export the in sensitivity weather little is there that means markets these in dependency of gas for electricity generation high The interconnector. Moffat the via Man of Isle the and Ireland, of Republic the and Ireland Northern to both exported is Gas Ireland to Exports 2017. summer in 2018 was it than summer in lower slightly to be demand DM we expect result, As a efficiency. a continuing drive towards greater energy also is There industries. intensive energy in decline the year, on mirroring year declining been has sector DM the in Demand
56 Chapter two 57
mcm The total requirement for gas injection into MRS during the summer will depend on the level of stock at the end of the winter. Over the last three summers, the stock level at the beginning of April has ranged from bcm 0.3 bcm 0.6 in to in April April 2014 The available space in2017. MRS in 2017 bcm; thereforewas 1.4 there was a need for bcm 0.8 be to injected fill to the sitesto capacity. In recent years there has been a withdrawals and injections more for trend beto made from MRS during the summer period, as you can seeTotal infigure 2.3. injection in was summer 1,800 2017 more than twice as much as was needed fillto the sitesto capacity. Years
e t
th ra a
Injection and withdrawal (mcm) withdrawal and Injection Figure 2.3 summer 2014 to 2017 Injection and withdrawal from mid-range storage We discussWe exports Europe to in more detail in the ‘Europe and interconnected interconnected and ‘Europe the in detail section.markets’ Looking at the forecast you will in table 2.1 see we expect be summer to very 2018 2017. summer to similar injectionStorage seasonal a as Rough of closure the With facility and its subsequent reclassification as a production field; the remaining storage in GB is mid-range storage (MRS). This has increased in total volume over recent years and is able offer to both seasonal and day to balancing valuable a provides This cycling. day option the to market close real to time. 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter two Gas demand Gas MRS stocklevel–summer2017 Figure 2.4 Europe became available for MRS injection. to flowing been had that Gas maintenance. annual for closed was IUK when made was injection sustained and significant first the 2017. summer that through shows level This stock MRS total the see can 2.4, figure you In Summer OutlookReport2018 MRS Stock mcm t e e
for maintenance when IUKwasclosed First significantinjection Date in a similar way to summer 2017. to way summer asimilar in to behave MRS 2018 expect we summer in comparable market conditions expected increasing MRS stock volume. With with together cycling MRS for market presented greater to opportunity the The interconnector outage effectively
58 Chapter two 59
the Interconnector (UK) Limited gas that has been converted liquid to Supplies from the UKCS and Norway are expected be to the dominant summer. this components IUK: Liquefied natural gas (LNG): natural form for ease of storage or transport. It is formed chilling by gas -161°C to is a bi-directional gas pipeline connecting pipeline gas is bi-directional a Bacton in the UK and Zeebrugge Belgium. in so that it occupies 600 times less space than in its gaseous form. • • • imported through the interconnectors interconnectors the imported through are more responsive gas to prices, in both the GB and global gas markets. Our supply forecast from all sources is shown in figure2.5 with five years comparison. for provided history of
a gas pipeline running from from running pipeline gas a BBL: Balgzand in the Netherlands Bacton to gas meet to demand in summer 2018. UK Continental Shelf (UKCS): in the UK. We expectWe that there will be sufficient made up of the areas of the sea bed sea territorial the beyond subsoil and over which the UK exercises sovereign exploitation and exploration of rights resources. natural of • Key terms • Key messages • We referWe gas to from UKCS and Norway beach of amount The supplies. ‘beach’ as by mainly determined is summer in supply system. transmission the on maintenance The more flexible supplies, referredto as storage, including supplies non-beach liquefied natural gas (LNG) and gas Overview GB continues to benefit fromwide GB a to continues rangeof supply sources; see during to expect gas of supplies the at we look here we summer 2018. 2018 Report Outlook Summer Gas supply Chapter two Gas supply Gas indicative data published by Centrica Storage. by Centrica published data indicative with line in projection, UKCS our in Rough from production 0.7 for bcm included We have site. storage a than rather field a production as Rough to operate started 2018 Centrica January In facility. the in still gas of 5bcm than more was there that estimated they time At the close. would site storage long-range Rough the that announced Storage 2017 June In Centrica with the exception of Rough. 2017, to summer 2018 similar tosummer be Rough. We are expecting aggregate supply in example, for elsewhere declines the offsetting fields, other some at increased production and on-line, came Shetland of West the in fields Glenlivet and 2016. Edradour than The Production from the UKCS in 2017 was higher UKCS Beach Supply Summer OutlookReport2018 Forecast and historic gas supply by source Forecast andhistoricgassupplybysource Table 2.2 2 http://www.npd.no/en/news/News/2018/The-Shelf-2017/ Total Storage Continent LNG Norway UKCS (bcm)
35.9 1.5 2.3 5.8 10.6 15.1 2013 35.4 1.3 2.2 7.6 7.6 15.3 2014
34.0 1.1 0.3 6.2 11.3 15.9 2015 Continental Shelf reached record levels Norwegian the on production Gas to GB. as well as France and Belgium Germany, to pipelines through gas supplies Norway Norway 2018 to remain high, similar to summer 2017. to summer similar 2018 high, to remain summer in GB to flows expecting We are high. particularly 2017 were GB to flows and 34.8 1.2 0.5 5.3 12.3 16.1 2016 35.8 1.9 0.1 3.3 13.3 17.3 2017 35.7 1.6 0.1 2.9 13.2 17.9 2018 2 in in
60 Chapter two 61
ep
a pr Storage behaviour expected the discussed have We of storage in the gas demand chapter. In summary, we are expecting gas be to supplied from storage in response to short term market conditions, with frequent withdrawal. and injection between switching a peak in LNG delivery GB to in the early the in demand heating winter as summer Asian before but declines, markets Asian reaches conditioning air for load electricity its peak. are We expecting a similar flow summer. this characteristic ar Month
e a e t
LNG supply (bcm) supply LNG Interconnectors theIn summer IUK and BBL 2017 the to gas little contributed interconnectors GB market. Gas flowed from to EuropeGB via IUK throughout the summer. are We summer. this behaviour similar expecting flowsHowever, through IUK respond very well the to difference in gas price at the GB NBP hub and the Belgian Zeebrugge hub, so occasional days of import GB to might be expected if prices on the two hubs dictate. Figure 2.5 LNG supply LNG Supplies of LNG the to GB market were notably less in October and since 2016 then have beenlower than in previousyears as shown in figure 2.5. LNG has been flowing instead Asian to markets,where it attracts see generally we Historically, price. higher a Non-Beach supply 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter two Europe and interconnected markets interconnected and Europe excess gas will be exported to Europe. to Europe. exported be will gas excess any that indicates analysis Our needed. is than gas more to be there expect we 2018, summer for demand to meet supply gas sufficient to be there expect we While Overview months. the summer during to gas surplus LNGon flows also while whathappens exploring chapterThis explores the of impact markets global Summer OutlookReport2018 • • • Key terms • Key messages network during the summer period. experience transit gas demand on the to expect we Therefore, Europe. in attractive more is price gas the to where routed gas sourced GB to see We expect in Belgium. Zeebrugge and UK the in Bacton a bi-directional gas pipeline connecting IUK: UK. the in to Bacton Netherlands the in Balgzand BBL: of natural resources. rights of exploration and exploitation sovereign exercises UK the which over and subsoil beyond the territorial sea bed sea the of areas the of up made (UKCS): Shelf Continental UK a gas pipeline running from the Interconnector (UK) Limited is is Limited (UK) Interconnector the
• • • • changing LNG landscape. the explore we here chapter; supply the in covered briefly was supply LNG winter periods. during seen than higher to be expected are volumes LNG base low, albeit remain will LNG and imports Interconnector space than in its gaseous form. form. gaseous its in than space less times 600 occupies it that so to -161°C gas by chilling formed is It transport. or storage of ease for form to liquid converted been has that gas natural (LNG): gas natural Liquefied per therm. pence in quoted usually is and sourced one price regardless of where the gas is has It market. gas wholesale Britain’s balancing pointNational (NBP): GB. in consumed being without the national transmission system Transit gas: gas that enters and exits exits and enters that gas
is is
62 Chapter two 63
Transit In the gas supply and gas demand demand, meeting supply discuss we sections including exports. It is not always obvious shows aggregate demand for GB markets GB demand and Irish exports. The surplus that some of the gas that is imported GB to is not used supply to demand in GB. It is used provideto gas for onward export, using the GB gas transmission network for transit. The chart GBto for summer also 2017. line. yellow the as shown exports, Irish and For almost the entire summer, more gas was being supplied than was needed satisfy to of supply was exported through IUK to Europe. From mid-May through the to We showWe in figure the2.6 daily supplies end of August, supplies from UKCS and Norway alone were greater than the demand; Norwegian gas was using GB for onward transit the to rest of Europe. The only time that supply and demand were aligned was in June when IUK was closed for annual maintenance. seeWe how well the market responds from characteristics differing operating to supplies beach With season. to season expected be to slightly higher in summer and demand than in summer2018 2017, expected be to slightly we expect lower, see to GB being used for transit again throughout 2018. summer Providing the GB network for the purpose of transiting gas serves underpin to security of supply. Our role and challenge is ensure to the availability and capability of the existing to need We remains. network transmission continue work to with our customershelp to us inform to our risk decisions for balancing system. transmission gas the
LNG LNG delivery GB to and all to of North West conditions on very dependent is Europe elsewhere in the world market. New LNG export facilities have come on line over the expanded or new including months, 12 last terminals in the US, Russia, Australia and recently Bangladesh. But at the same time global demand for LNG has risen sharply. Imports China, to Japan and Pakistan reached China is record making levels in 2017. a concerted effort replace to coal with gas improveto air quality and we expect that demand for LNG there will continue grow. to With such a dynamic global market it is hard predictto how much LNG will be available for GB. Forward prices suggest thatAsian markets this summer will attract a higher price than GB so we are not expecting very high LNG deliveries. Nevertheless, based on historical patterns, we would expect higher deliveries in the early summer than the very low levels that we saw during winter 2017/18. Interconnectors Flows through IUK respond very well the to difference in gas price at the GB NBP hub and the Belgian Zeebrugge hub. Demand in Europe for gas for injection into storage will be high this summer as storage was heavily used support to high demand in the cold weather during February and March. This has contributed forward to prices that suggest that flows through IUK this summer will mostly be from GB Belgium. to BBL has provided little gas during the summer Productionsince 2014. at the Groningen field in the Netherlands was restricted in an in 2015 attempt limit to seismic activity in the Groningen been have restrictions production The area. tightened every year and as a result we are not expecting any significant supply through BBL summer. this 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter two Europe and interconnected markets interconnected and Europe Gas supplytoGBwithdemandandexportsIreland Figure 2.6 mcm/d Summer OutlookReport2018 C ter e t r
r a e r a te a e t ra e Month e a a r he p rt 64 Chapter two 65
Transit gas: gas that enters and exits without system transmission national the being consumed in GB. using the gas network in different ways. In response, we continue evolve to the to available have we tools operational manage the within day variations of flow on the network. We continueWe see to our customers • •
a higha pressure gas transportation system stations, compressor of consisting offtakes. and sites multijunction pipelines, terminals from gas transport Pipelines offtakes.to The system is designed to operate at pressures up 94 to barg. National transmission (NTS): system Gas day: the gas day starts at 05:00 and ends Users at 04:59. of the transmission systemare incentivised balance to supply andinto, demand from, the network by the end ofthe gas day. This summer we expect see to one maintenance of volumes highest the of on the gas transmission system date. to We expectWe see to similar supply and demand with patterns summer to 2017, demand only approximately 30% lower than the winter peak. • Key terms • • Key messages • This section looks at the operationalThis section the at looks challenges us facing we These challenges how influence summer. coming the over operate network, the when a time we at are way the adapting access requirements increase carry to maintenance key out significant of changeswork. This is set against back-drop the network the is being used on year. year way the in 2018 Report Outlook Summer Gas operational outlook Chapter two Gas operational outlook operational Gas Historical interconnector flows during 2017 Historical interconnectorflowsduring2017 Figure 2.7 Summer OutlookReport2018 Supply and demand Supply and Overview mcm 2.7. figure interconnector in on Focusing illustrated is this demand, GB in reduction the offsets interconnector IUK the via flows export the winter peak. During the summer months, than lower cent per 30 approximately only is demand GB total the months, summer the during lower is demand gas Although an has variability This apparent. yet not are to season season from trends Clear demand. and supply of location the in changes see also we but changes, day within see we do only Not to change. continue patterns demand and supply GB’s gas a
e at e p rt ar pr a p rt
Month GB network for onward gas transit. transit. gas onward for network GB the using continue, will believe we demand the summer. This characteristic of summer of duration the for to export turn they ends, winter as and period winter the during gas imports IUK that see year, can we last flows maintenance. required in increase to an leads turn in which fleet compressor the of use The impact of these variations is the increased becoming increasingly challenging to predict. is which (NTS) System Transmission National the operate and configure we how on impact et ep t e
66 Chapter two 67
e has doubled compared to previous years. previous to compared doubled has highlights how the compressor fleet usage time in response to commercial opportunities commercial to response in time in the market. This makes it harder predict to the ideal network configurationto meet our requirements. customers’ These characterics not only impact our role as ResidualBalancer but also impacts our role as provider of safe control of operations with regards system to pressures for the DNs and other customers.
e
In response to these challenges we continue continue we challenges these to response In useto our compressor fleet more than we 2.8 Figure years. previous in done have Figure 2.8 and demand patterns one week apart in supply Variations There are two further characteristics ofthe supply and demand patterns that we expect will continue into the summer months. Firstly, supply in changes locational short term the and demand patterns which influence linepack fluctuations and therefore pressures on the network. Figure provides 2.8 an example of how these changes can occur from one week the to next. Secondly, market participants real to portfolios closer their balancing are 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter two Gas operational outlook operational Gas Compressor fleet running hours Compressor fleetrunninghours Figure 2.9 Summer OutlookReport2018 Plan Maintenance final The website. our on details disruption to our customers. You can find more maintenance on the network with minimal to facilitate aim always will we and coordinated are outages that to ensure industry the with closely engage to continue We usage. fleet supply and demand patterns and compressor transmission system to date.willimpactThis highest volumes of maintenance on the gas the of one to see expect we summer This year. on year to increase continues system the on maintenance of volume The How we’re responding Hours will be published at the end of March. of end the at published be will h r
Planning Gas Future the in Operability shared being now are this of impacts term longer the on thoughts Our customers. our of requirements along with the need to better predict the to increase continues day within network the on required flexibility the means requirements demand and supply Variable prices. market to fluctuating respond sites sensitive noticeable in the summer as commercially Increasing demand variation is more document. 68 Chapter three 69 76
Appendix70 Glossary
three Chapter Chapter 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter three Appendix (CMN) Notice Market Capacity Start-Up BM Black Start Product Summer OutlookReport2018 Manage and Connect E E E Energy availability onthedaytomeetdemandplusreserve requirements. BM Start-UpisusedbyNationalGridinourrole asresidual balancertoassistinensuringsufficientplant allow theelectricityControl RoomaccesstosuchBMUs,enablingtheunitsberunatshortnotice. with aBidOffer Action(BOA)priortoitssynchronisation. BMStart-Upcontractsare enactedto characteristics andassociatedleadtimes.IfaBMUhaslongtimethenitcannotbeissued Units (BMU’s) thatwouldnototherwisebeavailableinoperationaltimescalesduetotheirtechnical The BMStart-UpservicegivesNationalGridaccesstoadditionalgenerationBalancingMechanism warming ofunitsisrequired. In order tomaintainthisBlackStartcapabilityandensure restoration timescalescanbemet,some power stationsbeingstartedindividuallyandgraduallyreconnected tothetransmissionsystem. of electricitysupplies.BlackStartistheprocedure torecover from suchashutdown.Itinvolvesisolated transmission system,contingencyarrangementsare inplacetoenableatimelyandorderly restoration National Gridhasanobligationtoensure that,intheunlikelyeventoftotalorpartialshutdown Description 2) plantcommissionedandavailable 1) localworkscomplete allowed togenerateorreceive compensationfrom thatdate,subjectto: The underlyingprincipleisthatgeneratorscanacquire firmaccessrightsfrom aparticulardateandbe https://www.elexon.co.uk/new-balancing-mechanism-reporting-service-bmrs/ electricity-market-reform-emr https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/electricity/wholesale-market/market-efficiency-review-and-reform/ More informationcanbefoundat:https://www.emrdeliverybody.com/SitePages/Home.aspx on databeingupdatedinreal time. email andSMSalerts.TheCapacityMarketNoticecanbecancelledifthesituationimpr All industryparticipantsandstakeholderscanviewthiswebsite.Theyalsosubscribefor automated A CMNwillbeissuedbyNationalGridviaadedicatedwebsite(www.gbcmn.nationalgrid.co.uk/). These include,forexample,theBMReportswebsite. of otheroperationalinformationavailabletotheindustryclosertimenoticeisactive from. of aCMNbeingactivateditisrecommended thatindustryparticipants makethemselvesaware It shouldbenotedthatthere isnoformaldispatchmechanismintheCapacityMarket.Inevent additional payments. to dosowillresult infinancialpenalties.Capacityproviders thatover-deliver maybeeligiblefor Capacity providers are required todeliverinaccordance withtheircapacityobligations.Failure position, withproviders eitherdeliveringenergyorreducing demandagainsttheiragreement. notice isgeneratedbyNationalGrid.Themarketexpectedtorespond tothisnoticebyadjustingits shortage ofgeneration(500 availability declared bygenerators.Fourhoursaheadofreal time,ifthere isaheightenedriskofnational transmission system(plusthevolumeofoperatingmarginheldinreserve byNationalGrid)andthe participants. Itcalculatesthepredicted shortfallbetweentheforecast volumeofdemandontheelectricity A decisiontoissueaCapacityMarketNotice(CMN)isbasedonavailabledataprovided byindustry year runsfrom 1Octoberto30September. backup formore intermittentandinflexiblelowcarbongenerationsources. TheCapacityMarketdelivery needed. Thisaimstoencouragetheinvestmentweneedreplace olderpowerstationsandprovide for reliable sources ofcapacity, alongsideelectricityrevenues, toensure the deliveryofenergywhen Reform programme. Itaimstoensure thefuture securityofourelectricitysupplybyproviding apayment The CapacityMarkethasbeenintroduced aspartoftheElectricityMarket bytheUKGovernment MW orless)whichisconsidered aperiodofsystemstress, theautomated oves, based
70 Chapter three 71 om Scotland to England Description the electricity transmission system is unable to where management is required constraint Transmission transmission parts of the of demand due to congestion at one or more transmit power to the location on the generation and demand National Grid has to take actions to re-balance manage this, network. To in the and offers bids may include buying and selling power through each side of the constraint. Actions or contracting. Balancing Mechanism, trading in in connected generation has resulted the rapid growth of the network where some areas are There One example of this is the transfer of power fr significant constraint volumes. is embedded within the the majority of this generation areas, under windy conditions. In some Grid. with National services agreement does not have a mandatory distribution network and as a result, the Balancing and Settlement Code and is not required is exempt from This means that this generation certain services. to provide area to manage power flows, demand and generation in a specific is insufficient controllable there Where management (localised NRAPM) active power negative reserve National Grid may issue a localised reduce their This notification is designed to encourage all generators to system warning to the industry. flows issue instructions to control power flows, or allow National Grid to to reduce possible output where of power. notice when a demand short-term Imminent (DCI) warning may be issued to provide Demand Control within the cancelled or re-issued instruction is expected in the following 30 minutes. It must be control next two hours. The warning is sent only to the DNOs and transmission connected demand that instruction and is published on the BMRS a demand control will receive parties. to the affected without reference nationally to manage system margin shortfall or concentrated locally for can be spread Demand control on the wider network. For system margin other system operation challenges to limit the consequences sufficient and would instruct as a last resort shortfall, National Grid would employ demand control the margin shortfall over the high demand period. With to remove prior notice via an demand reduction Instruction to the DNOs and National Grid may issue a Demand Control HRDR warning the day before, shortfall. The instruction will contain the transmission connected demand in the event of system margin The required. stages to avoid the shortfall and specifies the demand control required level of reduction total demand and is split into stages of voltage to up to 40% of the recipients instruction can relate which reduces the voltage on its network, and demand disconnection. The DNO can reduce reduction customer supplies and in subsequent stages disconnect portions of demand demand without affecting Without available is 20%. up to the maximum demand reduction. prior notice, the maximum reduction the anticipated plan, which contains Each year DNOs notify National Grid of their demand control disconnection. and demand voltage reduction from demand reduction demand or reduce to either increase The service encourages large energy users and small generators is excess energy on the system. This typically occurs overnight and during generations when there weekend afternoons in the summer. for the whole of British Summer TimeFixed demand turn-up via a tender process. is procured parties can bid their availability and prices on a weekly basis Flexible demand turn-up is where summer. throughout Energy E E E E Constraints and power flows Demand Control Imminent (DCI) Demand Control Instruction Demand turn-up Product 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter three Appendix Notice Margins (HRDR) Reduction of Demand High Risk Reserve Fast (EMN) notice Margin Electricity Product Summer OutlookReport2018 (GDW) Warning Gas Deficit National G E E E Energy G demand reduction arrangements. customers aboutthelocationofapotentialreduction. Recipientsare required toprepare their demand reduction. Italsoprovides additionalinformationtoDNOsandtransmissionconnected A HighRiskofDemandReduction(HRDR)provides earlynotificationofanincreased riskof to control frequency changes. sustainable foraminimumof15minutes.Fastreserve isanadditionalenergybalancingserviceused despatch instructionatadeliveryrateinexcessof25 in consumptionfrom demandsources. Activepowerdeliverymuststartwithintwominutesofthe instruction from NationalGrid.Itisprovided asanincreased outputfrom generationorareduction Fast Reserveistherapidandreliable deliveryofactivepowerfollowingreceipt ofanelectronic despatch available andinmostcasesgoesunnoticedbyconsumers. request stagesofvoltagereduction toavoidtheshortfall.Thiscanmakehundreds ofmegawatts parameters. Shouldtheseactionsprove insufficient,itispossibletoissueinstructionsDNOs stations togenerateattheirhighestpossibleoutput,inexcessofnormaltechnicalandcommercial we are thenabletouseotherservices,suchasmaximumgeneration.Thisisarequest madetopower number offurtheractionsthattheSystemOperatorcantake.Ifallmarketoptionshavebeenexhausted If themarketdoesnotrespond whenanEMNisissued(ortheresponse isnotenough)there are a without theother. In addition,aCMNmayalsobeissued.ItisindependentoftheEMN,meaningthatonecanexist for furtheractionandallowthenotificationtobewithdrawnatalatertime. to themarketandexistingplantrunmore reliably. Inmostcasesthiswouldprevent theneed In response toanEMNbeingissued,wewouldtypicallyexpectmore planttobemadeavailable is mostoftenrequired fortheeveningpeakdemandperiod. the forecasted positionandtherequest foradditionalcapacitytobemadeavailable.Additional hours ofthesuspectedperiodtightness.Itisaroutine toolthatisdesignedtoinformtheindustryof stress. AnEMNcanbeissuedanytimebyourcontrol room viaBMReports,butisusuallywithin24 An EMNispartofthefirstleveloperationalnotificationsissuedbyNationalGridattimessystem manage securityofsupply. The ElectricityMarginNotice(EMN)isthefirstofhierarchy ofnotificationsissuedbyNationalGridto Description notice, atanytime. The GDWcanbeissuedinadvanceoforduring theactualGasDay;GDWcanbewithdrawn,via • otherrelevant information • marketintelligence • actuallinepack • predicted closinglinepack • actualforecast demand • actualforecast supply be basedontheinformationfrom anyofthefollowingsources: isbasedonthejudgementofGasNationalControlthe warning Centre. Thedecision toissuewill a forecast physicalendofdayNTSsupply/demandimbalance.There are nopredefined triggersand A GasDeficit noticeisdesignedtoencouragemarket participants totakeactionaddressWarning demand dataandinformationrelating tothestorageSafetyMonitors. We publishadailyMarginsNoticereport providing industrywith arolling fivedayviewofsupplyand until theendofgasday, unlessitissupersededbyaGasDeficit whenitwillbesuspended. Warning Report andreassess theirpositioninlinewiththeprevailing forecasts. AMarginsNoticewillstayinplace The MarginsNoticeismeanttoencourageusersoftheNTStakenoticer Day. Thetriggerlevelofdemandispublished ontheNationalGridWebsite onthePrevailingView page mismatch, where forecast demandisgreater thantheexpected availablesupplyfortheforthcomingGas This isadayaheadnoticetoprovide ahighlevelprompt tothemarketofapotentialsupply/demand MW/minute andthereserve energyshouldbe olling DailyMargins 72 Chapter three 73 . e there is a danger that the e there eduction services to manage oup can exceed the constraint Curtail or de-synchronise generation to maintain sufficient system foot room. We procure flexibility We procure room. generation to maintain sufficient system foot Curtail or de-synchronise services, including: of different via a number for foot room foot room. stations, which typically do not provide a. Flexibility on nuclear power foot room. increase to directly SEL on conventional generators, b. Decreased overall foot on conventional generators, to decrease response c. Static high frequency requirements. room flexibility during the on pump storage units, to maximise d. Optimising the demand profile tightest periods. turn services. This includes the demand up service. side response demand demand through Increase on the system. This may occur to alter the total import/export levels on the interconnectors Trade with reserve is available, coinciding ahead of time that insufficient negative is an indication when there when it is economically beneficial to would only be considered imports. Trading high interconnector do so. Description which typically occur overnightDuring periods of low demand, and on weekend afternoons, negative or near due to a combination of conventional generation running at This is is often scarce. reserve periods during As a result, greater. being requirements and response to their stable export limit (SEL), of low demand we may need to: 1. 2. 3. contracts, trading, SO to SO actions on through could not be met for negative reserve If a requirement or via the Balancing Mechanism, then National Grid may issue a negative reserve the interconnectors This warning is designed to active power management (NRAPM) system warning to the industry. flexibility on downward possible to create reduce their output where encourage inflexible generators to of supply, a significant proportion the system. At times of particularly low demand, or in represents in low or even negative system sell prices likely to result are actions taken to manage negative reserve prices to the Balancing encourage wind farms and generators to submit cost reflective (SSP). We and economically Mechanism to allow us to manage low demand periods efficiently gr combination of demand and inflexible generation within a constraint to issue instructions to is a risk that NG may need limit of a portion of the network, in both cases there inflexible and non-BM participating plant. common in the north of Scotland due to the large volume of wind and water more Localised NRAPM are low demand. generation and relatively exists Operating Reserve (STOR) still Term and Short reserve for regulating The combined requirement to manage the variation between expected and actual generation and This helps during the summer. for wind generation. demand, as well as reserve demand r National Grid enters into contracts with standby generation or is a market shortfall there its instructed position. Where variations in demand and generation away from National Grid may consider taking specific actions to of available system head room, in the provision flexibility. upward generation units or run them at part-loaded levels to create synchronise A NRAPM may be issued if there is insufficient flexibility available to ensure that generation matches is insufficient flexibility available to ensure A NRAPM may be issued if there occurs wher demand during periods of low demand. A localised NRAPM Energy E E E Negative reserve Positive reserve Product Negative Reserve Active Power Margin (NRAPM) 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter three Appendix disturbance system Risk of Response Reserve (RoCoF) frequency change of Rate of Product Summer OutlookReport2018 E E E E Energy widespread andseriousdisturbancetothewhole, orpart,oftheNationalelectricitysystem. This notificationwillbe issuedtouserswhomaybeaffected when NG knowsthere is ariskof Enhanced frequency response (EFR)–providing response withinonesecond of afrequency deviation Firm frequency response (FFR)–provision ofdynamicorstaticresponse tochanges infrequency Contracting inadvancetheformof: Mandatory frequency reserve –viatheBalancing Mechanism Routes forprocurement ofresponse services: The requirement forresponse servicesincreases duringperiodsoflowinertia. Static response servicesdonotbegintooperateuntilacertainfrequency isreached. until 10secondsaftertheevent. event occurringandthesystemstartingtodeliver. Dynamicresponse providers donothavetodeliver Dynamic response servicesthere is atimedelayofupto2secondsbetweenfrequency changing between supplyanddemand.There are twotypesoffrequency response services,dynamicandstatic. frequency variationsforexample,asuddendrop ingenerationordemandleadingtoanimbalance generation and/ordemandisheldinreadiness tomanageallcredible eventsthatmightresult in second-by-second balancebetweendemandandgeneration.NGmustensur System frequency isacontinuouslychangingvariablethatdetermined andcontrolled bythe hours aheadandreal time. growth insolarPVcapacityandtheneedtomanageadditionalvariabilitydemandbetweenfour In thefuture, therequirement toholdreserve islikelytoincrease. Thisisbecauseofthecontinued • facilitatetheholdingofhighfrequency dynamicresponse. • • accountforerrors indemand,windandsolarforecasting Reserve isrequired to: the system. room (positivereserve) andfootroom (negativereserve) provided across allgeneratorssynchronised to a rangeofcredible scenarios.Reservecanbethoughtofastherequirement foratotalamountofhead National Gridcurrently managesdifferent typesofreserve inorder tomaintainsystemsecurityunder demand orgenerationlossthatmayresult inafurtherRoCoFloss. it willalsobepossibletoholdadditionallowfrequency response tomanagethetotalpotential In thefuture, whenthelevelofRoCoFcapacityatriskhasreduced toasufficientlysmalllevel, • • Taking bidsongenerators,toreduce thepotentiallargestloss. • of non-synchronous generationare high.Actionsmightinclude: periods,butareafternoon possiblethroughout thedayduringsummerminimumsandwhenlevels during periodsoflowinertia.Thesepredominantly andduringweekend occurovernight Actions tocurtailthedemandandgenerationlossorincrease systeminertiaare particularlylikely had theirprotection equipmentadjusted. withstand frequency changesof0.5-1.0Hzs(dependingoncapacity).Almostallembeddedsiteshave To managethisissue,thedistributioncodehasbeenmodifiedto require embeddedsitestobeable embedded generationtostopgeneratingleadingfurtherdisturbanceandapossiblecascadeeffect. If theRoCoFishighenough,lossofmainsprotection canoperate.Thishasthepotentialtocause when thegeneratorhasbeendisconnectedorislandedfrom therest ofthetransmissionsystem. embedded generationhaslossofmainsprotection equipmentforRoCoF. Thisisdesignedtodetect services starttodeliver, therateofchangefrequency canberelatively high.Alargevolumeof In theperiodimmediatelyfollowingalargedemandorgenerationloss,butbefor Description to real time,and cover demandandgenerationlossesintheperiodfrom dayahead to increase inertia. Contracts, tradesorBidOffer Acceptances(BOAs)foradditionalsynchronous machines, potential largestloss. Trading ontheinterconnectors toreduce themfrom fullimportorexport,toreduce the e thatsufficient e frequency response 74 Chapter three
75 A unit synchronised to manage local voltage requirements can also help with system inertia, response can also help with system inertia, response to manage local voltage requirements A unit synchronised issue. but may cause a negative reserve and positive reserve, A unit de-synchronised to manage negative reserve and power flows could also decrease system and power flows could also decrease to manage negative reserve A unit de-synchronised and positive reserve. provision inertia, response This means that none of the requirements in this section can be considered in isolation, and instead in this section can be considered This means that none of the requirements is necessary. a whole system optimisation approach seemingly the System Operator may avoid actions with some generators that are For these reasons, to run at a time when For example, conventional generation may be left higher up in the merit order. some combination providing curtailed. This is because the conventional generators are wind farms are the wind farms are power support or an inertia contribution, whereas reactive response, of frequency always taken on an economic basis, based on the interaction not. Actions to operate the system are of all these factors. • Description to in order in storage and deliverability of gas that needs to remain The Safety Monitor is an amount The Safety the gas network. be safely or immediately isolated from supply those customers that cannot based on a gas is needed to supply these customers for a winter period Monitor calculates how much on the adequate pressures to maintain the safety of the system by maintaining It is there 1 in 50 winter. of the safety monitor has not been a breach There security of supply. network, rather than to support in 2004. level since it was introduced by by Monitor’ and ‘Protected up of the ‘Protected of the Safety Monitor is made The space requirement all storage types and is then divided equally across requirement Isolation’ elements. The total space into the NTS for the Safety Monitor, the gas needs to be delivered also calculate the rate that facilities. We held in storage. Defining space and deliverability helps marketbased on the amount of gas being breach. ahead and helps to indicate the likelihood of a safety monitor participants to plan for the winter SO to SO action is the operational exchange of energy Balancing, Border Also known as Cross Grid and For example, this may take place between National between the national system operators. with closes (<1hour ahead of real-time) generally after the market RTE. are The activation timescales firm and can this service is not on system conditions. As a result, the volumes and prices dependent energy. operator if system conditions do not permit the exchange of be withdrawn by either system than counter trading as it is based on the balancing action The cost of this service is generally more costs available to each system operator. is to change; it serves to slow down the rate of a system frequency of how resilient This is a measure or generation loss. is a demand when there change of frequency solar PV is displacing generation of non-inertial generation for example, embedded wind and The growth At times of levels of inertia n the system. inertia. This is causing reduced that has historically provided generation non-inertial generation and synchronise low inertia, NG may take actions to de-synchronise that is able to supply inertia like power stations or hydro. meet all of the above system to maintain system security at all times, National Grid needs to In order tools and capabilities of different due to the physical properties However, simultaneously. requirements other may also have an impact on requirements and services, an action taken to meet one or more For example: requirements. • Energy G E E E Safety Monitor SO to SO actions System inertia System operation Product 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter three Glossary Scenarios Future Energy European Union Trading Scheme EU Emissions Equivalent firmcapacity Interconnector East West Demand sideresponse Distributed generation Daily metered Compressor gas turbine Combined cycle Carbon pricefloor Capacity market BritNed billion cubicmetres Embedded generation BBL Word Summer OutlookReport2018 FES EU ETS EFC EWIC DSR DM CCGT CPF CM bcm BBL Acronym Various Various Gas Electricity Electricity Electricity Various Gas Gas Various Electricity Electricity Electricity Gas Gas Section (SHET) transmissionarea. transmission area and10 100 thresholds oftheonshore transmission areas. Thethresholds are is equalorgreater than1 Generation connectedtothedistributednetworks,sizeofwhich primarily inEurope. A politicalandeconomicunionof28member statesthatare located plants in31countries. The schemecoversmore than11,000powerstationsandindustrial An EUwidesystemfortradinggreenhouse gasemission allowances. of supplyunchanged.EFCiscurrently assumedtobe 22%. plant couldtheoretically replace theentire windfleetandleavesecurity adequacy. Itrepresents howmuchof100%availableconventional An assessmentoftheentire windfleet’s contributiontocapacity They reduce electricitydemandonthetransmissionsystem. with thenationalelectricitytransmissionSystemOperator(NETSO). Power generatingstations/unitsthatdon'thaveacontractualagreement another party. of metered electricityorgasconsumption,brought aboutbyasignalfrom A deliberatechangetoanindustrialandcommercial user’s naturalpattern These are typicallylargescaleconsumers. A classificationofcustomerswhere gasmetersare read daily. electric units. gas driventurbinesthatare intheprocess ofbeingreplaced with entry pointstoexitonthegasnetwork.Theyare predominately at 24sitesacross thecountry. Thesecompressors movethegasfrom through highpressure pipelines. There are currently 68compressors Compressors are usedtomovegasaround thetransmissionnetwork This steamthendrivesaturbinegeneratortoproduce more electricity. from thisprocess isusedtoproduce steaminaheatrecovery boiler. to driveagasturbinegeneratorproduce electricity. Theexhaustgas A powerstationthatusesthecombustionofnaturalgasorliquidfuel for Co2emissions. A pricepaidbyUKgeneratorsandlargecarbonintensiveindustries energy whenneeded. of capacity, alongsidetheirelectricityrevenues, ensuringtheydeliver supply. Thisisachievedbyproviding apaymentforreliable sources The capacitymarketisdesignedtoensure securityofelectricity of 1,000 and theNetherlands.Itisabi-directional interconnector withacapacity British NationalGridthatoperatestheelectricitylinkbetweenGr BritNed DevelopmentLimitedisajointventure ofDutchTenneT and cubic metres Unit ofvolumeusedinthegasindustry. 1bcm=1,000,000,000 You canfindoutmore atwww.bblcompany.com A gaspipelinebetweenBalgzandintheNetherlandsandBactoninUK. http://fes.nationalgrid.com/ challenges and potentialsolutions. You canfindoutmore at and investmentplanning, andare usedtoidentifyfuture operability to 2050.Theyformthe startingpointforalltransmissionnetwork The FESisarangeofcredible pathwaysforthefuture of energy out com/customer-and-industry/interconnection/ of Ireland andGreat Britain.You canfindoutmore atwww.eirgridgroup. A 500 Description MW inNGETtransmissionarea, 30 MW interconnector thatlinkstheelectricitytransmissionsystems MW. You canfindoutmore atwww.britned.com MW anduptothemandatoryconnection MW inScottishHydro-Electric Transmission MW inScottishPower(SP) eat Britain 76 Chapter three 77 MW link between GW = 1,000,000,000 watts. MW = 1,000,000 watts. MW bi-directional interconnector between Northern Ireland between Northern Ireland interconnector MW bi-directional Description of power 1 A measure of countries that grouping A geographical, social and economic Wales. contains England, Scotland and transmission system and the A connection point between the distribution system. Britain's wholesale NBP gas price is derived from the buying and selling of Britain's wholesale NBP gas price is derived from facilities. production offshore natural gas in Britain after it has arrived from The wholesale market in Britain has one price for gas, irrespective therm. It is usually quoted in pence per it has come from. of where at https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/gas/wholesale- can find out more You market/gb-gas-wholesale-market A 500 at www.mutual-energy.com out more can find and Scotland. You total supply minus Condition used in a security of supply test, where the largest single loss is assessed against total peak demand. Natural gas that has been converted to liquid form for ease of storage Natural gas that has been converted to liquid form for ease of or transport. It is formed by chilling gas to -161˚C so that it occupies can find out more 600 times less space than in its gaseous form. You at http://grainlng.com/who-are-we/lng-in-the-energy-mix/ The energy demand experienced on a system. based It is an approach Used to describe electricity security of supply. the risk, across It measures in hours/year. and is measured on probability exceeding supply under normal operation. of demand the whole winter, will be loss of supply for 3 hours per year. This does not mean there the whole winter, It gives an indication of the amount of time, across tools which the System Operator (SO) will need to call on balancing maximum generation or assistance from such as voltage reduction, In most cases, loss of load would be managed without interconnectors. significant impact on end consumers. Gas storage facilities designed to switch rapidly between injection changes in gas price. and withdrawal to maximise the value from of power 1 A measure 1 mcm = 1,000,000 cubic metres Unit of volume used in the gas industry. A bi-directional gas pipeline between Bacton in the UK and Zeebrugge gas pipeline between Bacton A bi-directional at www.interconnector.com can find out more in Belgium. You other connect gas transmission systems from Gas interconnectors system (NTS) in England, Scotland countries to the national transmission that connect to gas interconnectors three currently are There and Wales. the NTS. These are: Belgium, to IUK interconnector BBL to the Netherlands, the Isle of Man and Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland, Moffat assets that connect transmission are Electricity interconnectors They allow suppliers to the GB market to Continental Europe. trade electricity between these markets. is a 2,000 The England-France Interconnector and British transmission systems. Ownership is shared the French d'Electricité (RTE). between National Grid and Réseau de Transport The volume of gas within the national transmission system (NTS) pipelines at any time. between the amount of gas in the system at the start The difference of the day and at the lowest point during the day. Section Electricity Various Electricity Gas Gas Gas Various Electricity Gas Electricity Gas Electricity Gas Electricity Electricity Gas Gas Gas GW GB GSP IUK Acronym NBP LOLE MRS MW mcm IFA LNG Gigawatt Britain Great Grid supply points Interconnector (UK) limited Word N-1 National balancing point (NBP) gas price Load Loss of load expectation Medium-range storage Megawatt Million cubic meters Moyle Interconnector Interconnector Interconnexion France-Angleterre Linepack Linepack swing Liquefied natural gas 2018 Report Outlook Summer Glossary Chapter three Glossary demand Transmission system System Operator System operability Station load demand Seasonal normal Residual balancer Profiling Peak Open cyclegasturbine 2 data Operational code Normalised demand Non-storage supply Non-daily metered system National transmission transmission system National electricity Word Summer OutlookReport2018 TSD SO OCGT OC2 NSS NDM NTS NETS Acronym Gas Electricity Various Electricity Gas Gas Gas Various Various Electricity Electricity Gas Gas Gas Electricity Section and sustainably. operational parameterswithinpre-defined limitssafely, economically The abilitytomaintainsystemstabilityandall of theassetratingsand demand from thepowerstationsgenerating electricity(thestationload). (GSPs), whichare theconnectionsto distributionnetworks.Itincludes Demand thatNationalGrid asSystemOperatorseesatgridsupplypoints Scottish Power. which isownedbyScottishHydro ElectricityTransmission and National Gridoperatestheelectricitytransmission systeminScotland, Forexample, The SOmaynotnecessarilyowntheassetsconcerned. or electricityonaregional ornationallevel,usingfixedinfrastructure. An entityentrustedwithtransportingenergyin theformofnaturalgas The onsitepowerstationrequirement, forexamplesystemsorstartup. to accountforclimatechange. It iscalculatedusinghistoricallyobservedvaluesthathavebeenweighted The levelofgasdemandthatwouldbeexpectedoneachdaytheyear. orsells)toseekresolve anyimbalance. as residual balancer, willenterthemarketandundertaketrades(buys be achievedonanygivenday, theSystemOperator(NationalGrid), and demandfrom, thenetwork.Ifthisbalanceisnotexpected to Users ofthegassystemare incentivisedtobalancesupplyinto, across theday. during thegasday. Aflatprofile corresponds toaconsistentrate The rateatwhichgasisputintoortakenoff thetransmissionsystem average overagivenperiodoftime(e.g.specificdayorhourtheday). It canrefer eithertoagivenmoment(e.g.specifictimeofday)oran of energyrequired tosupplycustomersattimeswhenneedisgreatest. The maximumrequirement ofasystematgiventime,ortheamount element before inthecombustor. fuelisinjectedandburned Gas turbinesinwhichairisfirstcompressed inthecompressor BM Reportswebsiteatwww.bmreports.com. You canaccessthelatestOC2datathroughout theyearon current generationavailabilityandknownmaintenanceoutageplans. Information provided toNationalGridbygenerators.Itincludestheir standardised weather. models tocalculatewhatthedemandwouldhavebeenwiththis of eachrelevant weathervariable.Thisisthenappliedtolinearregression Demand assessedforeachweekoftheyearbasedona30average medium andlong-rangestorage. All gassuppliestothenationaltransmissionsystemexcludingshort, or smallerindustrialconsumers. or atlongerintervals.Theseare typicallyresidential, commercial A classificationofcustomerswhere gasmetersare read monthly pressures of94barg. gas from terminalstoofftakes andare designedtooperateup stations, pipelines,multi-junctionsitesandofftakes. Pipelinestransport A highpressure gastransportationsystemconsistingofcompressor operated byasingleSystemOperator(SO). by regional transmissioncompanies,whilethesystemasawholeis across Britainandnearbyoffshore waters.Itisownedandmaintained The systemismadeupofhighvoltageelectricitywires thatextend from where itisproduced towhere itisneededthroughout thecountry. High voltageelectricityistransportedonthetransmissionsystem Description
78 Chapter three 79 Description half-hourly settlement periods with the highest the three are Triads day between can occur in any half-hour on any system demand. Triads each other by They must be separated from November and February. at least ten days. of weather and the day the effect of demand that removes A measure of the week. of the sea comprises those areas The UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) sea over which the UK exercises bed and subsoil beyond the territorial of natural resources. rights of exploration and exploitation sovereign of countries that contains grouping A geographical, social and economic Northern and Ireland. England, Scotland, Wales The demand expected or out turned of the weather with the impact weather variable A 30 year average of each relevant removed. This is then applied the year. is constructed for each week of models to calculate what the demand would to linear regression weather. have been with this standardised The demand expected with the impact of weather removed. Actual demand is converted to demand at seasonally normal between weather conditions, by multiplying the difference actual CWV and expected CWV by a value that represents demand sensitivity to weather. Section Electricity Electricity Gas Various Electricity Gas Acronym UKCS UK Word Triad Underlying demand UK Continental Shelf United Kingdom of Britain and Great Northern Ireland corrected Weather demand corrected Weather demand 2018 Report Outlook Summer Chapter three Legal notice Summer OutlookReport2018 © National Grid plc, all rights reserved. rights all plc, Grid © National copyright statement in your own documentation: must reproduce, clearly and prominently, the following you thereto, adaptations or modifications any making outlook document, in its original form and without the re-use you that To extent the Grid. to National rights contained in this outlook document belong property intellectual other all and copyright all and Any Copyright future the of forecasts own its with together systems of the gas transportation and electricity transmission users from Grid National by compiled and collected reasonably possible, objective, using information as far as is, which amanner in document outlook this to prepare endeavoured has and faith, good in document outlook this prepared has Grid National information are governed by the respective licences. of sharing and activities their practice in whereas entities, licensed to both to refer used is Grid” “National document outlook this of purpose the For the gas transmission network. operates plc Gas Grid National and transmission Electricity Transmission plc operates the electricity Grid National licences, respective to their Pursuant
contained within this outlook document. information the of made is which use any for responsibility any accept not does Grid National misstatement or fraudulent misrepresentation, fraudulent of event the in than Other contract. any of basis the form or acceptance of capable offer an anything within this outlook document constitute shall nor contents, such of completeness and accuracy to the as made is or be can warranty no and only illustrative as considered be must document this outlook document. The contents of this outlook of contents the on reliance any place not should document this of readers publication, of time the at as views best Grid’s National represents content contents of this outlook document and whilst such to the as person any to mislead sought not has Grid National While systems. those of development
80 Summer Outlook Report 2018 81
Continuing the conversation
Join our mailing list to receive email updates on our Future of Energy documents. http://www.nationalgrid.com/updates
Email us with your views on the Summer Outlook Report at: [email protected] and we will get in touch. National Grid UK Keep up to date on key issues relating to National Grid via our Connecting website: www.nationalgridconnecting.com
You can write to us at: Future Outlook team System Operator National Grid House Warwick Technology Park Gallows Hill Warwick CV34 6DA @nationalgriduk
National Grid
NationalGridUK National Grid plc National Grid House, Warwick Technology Park, Gallows Hill, Warwick. CV34 6DA United Kingdom Registered in England and Wales No. 4031152 www.nationalgrid.com