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Syria Conflict (RAS) Is Now Produced Quarterly, Replacing 3.7 Deir-Ez-Zor the Monthly RAS of 2013

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Syria Conflict (RAS) Is Now Produced Quarterly, Replacing 3.7 Deir-Ez-Zor the Monthly RAS of 2013 1. OVERVIEW 1.1 Executive Summary 1.2 Timeline Q3 1.3 Armed conflict and possible developments 1.4 Humanitarian Population Profile 1.5 Displacement profile 1.6 Humanitarian Access 1.7 Possible developments 1.8 Data sources and limitations REGIONAL 2. COUNTRYWIDE SECTORAL ANALYSIS 2.1 Protection 2.2 WASH 2.3 Livelihoods and Food Security 2.4 Shelter NFI ANALYSIS 2.5 Health 2.6 Education 3. GOVERNORATE PROFILES 3.1 Aleppo 3.2 Al-Hasakeh 3.3 Ar-Raqqa 3.4 As-Sweida Q3 2014 | 13 OCTOBER 2014 3.5 Damascus/Rural Damascus 3.6 Dar’a This Regional Analysis of the Syria conflict (RAS) is now produced quarterly, replacing 3.7 Deir-ez-Zor the monthly RAS of 2013. It seeks to bring together information from all sources in 3.8 Lattakia the region and provide holistic analysis of the overall Syria crisis. While Part I focuses on the situation within Syria, Part II covers the impact of the crisis on neighbouring 3.9 Hama countries. More information on how to use this document can be found on page 2. 3.10 Homs Please note that place names which are underlined are hyperlinked to their location 3.11 Idleb on Google Maps. The Syria Needs Analysis Project welcomes all information that could 3.12 Quneitra complement this report. For more information, comments or questions please email 3.13 Tartous [email protected]. 1. OVERVIEW 1.1 Executive Summary 1.2 Possible Developments 1.3 Timeline Q3 1.4 Humanitarian Population Profile 2. COUNTRIES 2.1 Lebanon 2.2 Jordan 2.3 Turkey 2.4 Iraq 2.5 Egypt ANNEX 1. OVERVIEW 1.1 Executive Summary 1.2 Timeline Q3 1.3 Armed conflict and possible developments 1.4 Humanitarian Population Profile 1.5 Displacement profile 1.6 Humanitarian Access 1.7 Possible developments 1.8 Data sources and limitations 2. COUNTRYWIDE SECTORAL ANALYSIS 2.1 Protection 2.2 WASH 2.3 Livelihoods and Food Security 2.4 Shelter NFI 2.5 Health 2.6 Education SYRIA 3. GOVERNORATE PROFILES 3.1 Aleppo 3.2 Al-Hasakeh 3.3 Ar-Raqqa 3.4 As-Sweida 3.5 Damascus/Rural Damascus 3.6 Dar’a 3.7 Deir-ez-Zor 3.8 Lattakia 3.9 Hama 3.10 Homs 3.11 Idleb 3.12 Quneitra 3.13 Tartous 1. OVERVIEW 1.1 Executive Summary 1.2 Possible Developments 1.3 Timeline Q3 1.4 Humanitarian Population Profile 2. COUNTRIES B 2.1 Lebanon 2.2 Jordan HOST 2.3 Turkey 2.4 Iraq COUNTRIES 2.5 Egypt A ANNEX REGIONAL ANALYSIS SYRIA “Syria is now the world’s biggest internal displacement crisis, with OVERVIEW 13 OCTOBER 2014 | an estimated 6.4 million IDPs. 1 PART A – SYRIA Overall, OCHA estimates that there are 10.8 million people in need inside Syria.” 1. OVERVIEW 1.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY During the last quarter, key changes occurred in the overall dynamics of the conflict, with new and and hard-to-reach areas is available, significant gaps remain. In many cases, restrictions on | SECTORAL ANALYSIS SECTORAL | fluctuating frontlines, higher intensity and increased regionalisation of the conflict, and significant information sharing hamper SNAP’s ability to form a comprehensive picture on several 2 changes in areas of control. These dynamics will further complicate any mediation for the newly regions in the country appointed UN-League of Arab States special envoy, Staffan de Mistura. This quarter was mostly characterised by the Islamic State (IS) further engaging in fighting with government forces in new Funding cuts: areas, expanding its activities closer to the capital against opposition forces and in Kurdish areas. These WFP announced significant funding shortfalls that will lead to immediate cuts to food developments had a significant humanitarian impact and caused massive population movements both assistance for affected Syrians across the entire region. In Syria, food baskets to about four inside Syria and towards neighbouring countries. Syria is now the world’s biggest internal displacement million beneficiaries are expected to be significantly reduced to just 825 kilocalories per crisis, with an estimated 6.5 million IDPs. Overall, OCHA estimates that there are 10.8 million people person per day beginning in November, compared to 2,100 kilocalories recommended in in need inside Syria. emergency contexts. The cuts are coming just as livelihood opportunities in the agriculture and constructions sectors will be further reduced due to the upcoming winter season. SYRIA IS advances and armed violence: PROFILES GOVERNORATE | In the last three months, IS has asserted its territory and its military capacity, and positioned itself in Access: 3 preparation for an intervention by the International Alliance. The armed group is now in full control While a record volume of food assistance in August was distributed by WFP through cross borders and cross lines deliveries, around 4.7 million people reside in areas categorised A of Ar-Raqqa Governorate – which is the first governorate totally out of Government of Syria (GoS) hands, and holds significant swathes of territory in Aleppo, Al-Hasakeh, and Deir-ez-Zor. It has also as hard-to-reach, including at least 241,000 people who remain besieged by either been clashing with various armed groups when spreading to new areas such as Rural Damascus, government or opposition forces. In these areas, access remains challenging, primarily due to insecurity and administrative hurdles. Overall, assistance reached approximately 27% of Damascus, and Homs. Meanwhile, Armed Opposition Groups (AOGs) have gained substantial ground OVERVIEW | in Idleb, Hama, and to a lesser extent, Dar’a and Quneitra. The general escalation in violence has caused the 287 locations identified as besieged or hard-to-reach. 1 the displacement of thousands of people, with most significant population movements reported in Deir-ez-Zor, Aleppo and Al-Hasakeh. Attacks on civilian infrastructure: All parties to the conflict continue to target vital services and civilian infrastructure, disrupting basic COUNTRIES services and raising serious protection concerns. In Aleppo city, damage caused to the main water | pumping station by armed opposition groups in early June continues to result in water shortages 2 for over 2.5 million people. Parties to the conflict widely disregard the special protection accorded to health and education facilities. Since the start of the conflict, almost 200 attacks on 140 medical facilities were recorded, and the UN documented 80 attacks on schools between January and August 2014. Reporting: Information available on the humanitarian situation, specifically primary data, is extremely limited in Syria. During the third quarter, media coverage of Syria was dominated by the IS threat, thus issues 3 unrelated to IS activities were heavily underreported. In addition, other global crises, such as the P. Ebola outbreak and the bombardment of the Gaza Strip significantly affected media coverage of Syria. Despite the decrease in humanitarian information, there were significantly more reports available on HOST COUNTRIES Al-Hasakeh and Deir-ez-Zor than in the second quarter. While some information from GoS held areas REGIONAL ANALYSIS REGIONAL 13 OCT 2014 | Q3 B 1.2 TIMELINE OVERVIEW | Security Council resolution 2165: IS offensive on Ain al Arab/Kobani US-led coalition: On 23 September, a US-led coali- 1 The UN Security Council adopted city: On 6 September, IS launched a tion started carrying out airstrikes on areas con- resolution 2165 on 14 July author- sudden massive offensive against the trolled by IS and Jabhat Al-Nusra in Deir-ez-Zor, izing for -180 days- relief delivery Ain al Arab/Kobani using heavy Ar-Raqqa, Al-Hasakeh, rural Aleppo and Idleb. The across conflict lines and through weapons and machineries, seized first week of military operations targeted oil fields four border crossings at Bab earlier during battles in Iraq, on all and military bases controlled by the Islamic State Funding shortfalls: The al-Salam, Bab al-Hawa, Al Yaarubi- possible fronts to the east, south as well as a grain storage facility in northern regional response to the yah and Al-Ramtha with Turkey, and west of the sub-district. IS was Menbij. Casualties following a week of airstrikes, Syrian crisis is under ANALYSIS SECTORAL | Iraq and Jordan without requiring able to take control of about 325 according to the Syrian Observatory for Human increasing pressure due to 2 prior permission from the Syrian villages in the sub-district and Rights, include 103 IS fighters, 50 Al-Nusra fighters other emerging global authorities. The resolution also forced an estimated population of and 22 civilians. The Syrian Observatory for crises. The cuts come at a intends to facilitate use of the about 250,000 to flee to Turkish Human Rights reported that at least 73 fighters, particularly difficult time, most direct routes to people in lands. By the end of September, most of which are from Jabhat Al-Nusra and Islam- with informal work oppor- need throughout the country, to Islamic State fighters were only 3 ic factions, joined the Islamic state following the tunities reduced, increasing allow for more efficient and timely kilometres away from Ain al airstrikes while 162 others joined shortly before displacement movements delivery. Arab/Kobani with expectations that the coalition initiated military operations. and the onset of winter . SYRIA | GOVERNORATE PROFILES GOVERNORATE | IS fighters will storm the city any 3 day. A July Aug Sep Oct-Nov-Dec OVERVIEW | Ahrar Al-Sham explosion: On 10 September, a massive explo- Shift in conflict dynamics: Several factors 1 sion hit one of the headquarters of Ahrar al Sham movement in are suggesting that new alliances could 700 tribal members executed by IS: Idleb, killing about 50 leaders of the movement. The nature of emerge in the next quarter.
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