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Q1 2015 Iran Q1 2015 www.businessmonitor.com IRAN AUTOS REPORT INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2018 ISSN 1748-9962 Published by:Business Monitor International Iran Autos Report Q1 2015 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2018 Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Copy deadline: December 2014 Business Monitor International © 2014 Business Monitor International Senator House All rights reserved. 85 Queen Victoria Street London All information contained in this publication is EC4V 4AB copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor United Kingdom International, and as such no part of this Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 publication may be reproduced, repackaged, Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used Email: [email protected] in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or Web: http://www.businessmonitor.com mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Iran Autos Report Q1 2015 CONTENTS BMI Industry View ............................................................................................................... 7 SWOT .................................................................................................................................. 10 Political ................................................................................................................................................. 12 Economic ............................................................................................................................................... 13 Industry Forecast .............................................................................................................. 14 Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2012-2018) ........................................................................ 14 Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2012-2018) .................................................................... 14 Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2012-2018) .............................................................. 15 Production ............................................................................................................................................ 15 Sales .................................................................................................................................................... 20 Trade ................................................................................................................................................... 21 Passenger Vehicles .................................................................................................................................. 23 Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2012-2018) .................................................................... 23 Table: Iran - Top 10 Best-Selling Manufacturers, H114 ............................................................................................... 24 Macroeconomic Forecast ................................................................................................ 25 Economic Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 25 Table: Economic Activity (Iran 2009-2018) ............................................................................................................ 32 Industry Risk/Reward Ratings ......................................................................................... 33 Middle East Risk/Reward Ratings ............................................................................................................... 33 Table: MENA Autos Risk/Reward Ratings .............................................................................................................. 36 Company Profile ................................................................................................................ 37 Company Monitor .................................................................................................................................... 37 Growth In The Gulf ................................................................................................................................ 37 The Duster Cleans Up ............................................................................................................................. 38 Building A North African Hub .................................................................................................................. 39 Opportunities In Iran .............................................................................................................................. 39 Iran Khodro Company (IKCO) ................................................................................................................... 41 Societe Annonyme Iranienne de Production Automobile (Saipa) ....................................................................... 45 Regional Overview ............................................................................................................ 47 Middle East Overview .............................................................................................................................. 47 Table: MENA Autos Production Investments ........................................................................................................... 47 Global Industry Overview .................................................................................................. 49 Table: The Internet Of Cars ............................................................................................................................ 49 Demographic Forecast ..................................................................................................... 51 Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025) .............................................................................................. 52 © Business Monitor International Page 4 Iran Autos Report Q1 2015 Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025) ....................................................................................................... 52 Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025) .............................................................................. 53 Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025) .................................................................................................... 53 Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025) ................................................................................................. 54 Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 56 Industry Forecasts .................................................................................................................................. 56 Sector-Specific Methodology .................................................................................................................... 57 Sources ................................................................................................................................................ 57 Risk/Reward Index Methodology ............................................................................................................... 58 Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators ...................................................................... 59 © Business Monitor International Page 5 Iran Autos Report Q1 2015 BMI Industry View The main political news affecting the Iranian auto industry over the past quarter was the announcement on November 24 2014 that there has been an extension to the deadline for a 'permanent' agreement to be reached on the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme- which aims to ensure that Iran cannot use its enrichment activities to produce a nuclear weapon before the West can intervene - until June 30 2015. During this extension period to the ongoing talks between Iran and the P5+1 countries (the US, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany), Iran will continue to receive approximately USD700mn per month from its frozen accounts, although key international sanctions on its energy and banking sector will remain in place. BMI's Country Risk team believes that the talks will be protracted, with risks tilted slightly to the downside. Overall, we believe that a solution to the nuclear issue will not be found by June 30, as political constraints will prevent both Iranian and US negotiators from making the significant concessions necessary to bridge existing technical obstacles to a deal. That said,
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