PROFESSIONAL REPORTS Automotive & Parts March 3, 2018 in Agribusiness Iran Business Time Overview After oil and gas, automotive is the second and most important industry and was known the world’s 18 largest automotive manufacturer in 2016. More than 800,000 people are active in the industry. Iran ranks the world 13th in car sales and has a manufacturing capacity of 2 mn vehicles; Nearly 1,350,000 cars were produced in the year ended March 2017 and 1,600,000 vehicles are planned to be manufactured for the year ending March 2018. Due to the attractive market of neighboring countries, Iran is seeking to develop its market share along with world top brands. After the JCPOA, there are opportunities for Iranian and foreign companies to participate. So far, 6 manufacturing agreements have been signed which means higher quality and cheaper cars. The automotive has a turnover of 26 bn USD, while16 bn of which for domestic, 6 bn USD or domestic and foreign auto parts and 4 bn USD are related to import. The GDP was about 3.6% in the year ended March 2017, while the current penetration rate is 0.2 (200 vehicles per 1,000 individuals). Recent trends – Ranking 13th – In car sales in 2016 – Ranking 18th in car manufacturing in 2016 – Manufacturing more than 1,350,000 cars in the year ended March 2017 – 3.6% contribution of GDP in the year ended March 2017 – Six agreements between Iran and the world’s leading automotive companies Comparative statistics of Iran autos industry and world Production Iran achieved the world 18th rank by manufacturing about 1,350,000 vehicles, in the year ended March 2017 and experienced a growth of 38% over the last year. According to the International Organization of Automobile Manufacturers, about half of the vehicles were manufactured by Iran Khodro Company. According to The Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade, total 1,600,000 vehicles are to be manufactured of this year. Auto production (000 vehicles) Autos production forecast (000 vehicles) Composition of autos industry revenue Composition of autos industry profit Source: Saipa World Ranking World’s top 10 autos manufacturers (mn vehicles) From April to January 2017, more than 1 mn vehicles were manufactured by domestic automakers which was 41% more than in the previous year. The 5 most famous cars are listed below: – Pride (217,994 vehicles) – Peugeot 206 (128,642 vehicles) – Peugeot 405 (123,486 vehicles) – Peugeot Pars (99,778 vehicles) – Tiba with (90,006 vehicles) Total market share – value (bn IRR) Export & Import – More than 76,000 vehicles were imported in the year ended March 2017, representing an increase of 49%compared to the year ended March 2016. – The total value of the imported vehicles over 1.99 bn USD. – The government revenue of car import tariff was 2,500 bn USD, which is 75% of the predicted revenue. – The UAE accounts for 65.4 % of imported vehicles, South Korea with 16%, Germany and Turkey with 3% and Spain and Kuwait, both with 2% are the next four largest import origins, all of which contribute to 92% of total import. Hyundai has 23% of import share by brand Hyundai Santa-Fe has 11% of import share by models – According to Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration, 26,666 vehicles were imported at a value of 752,689,053 USD from April to July 2017. Auto export (mn USD) Auto import (mn USD) The UAE, China and South Korea, have been the major import origins over the past few years. The major import through the UAE has been because of the lack of international manufacturer’s agency over the past years. Iran mainly export cars to underdeveloped countries including Iraq and Afghanistan and autos parts including brake drum and wheel hubs, radiators and clutch disc to developed countries such as Italy, Russia, France and Spain. Auto market share composition (volume) in the year ended March 2017 Competition Iran major automakers, Iran Khodro and SAIPA, take 85.4% of the market share and form total share of 94.4% along with privately-owned automakers. According to statistics, automobile importers covered 5.7% of the market share in the year ended March 2017. Iran Khodro, with a share of 45.7%, is still on the top and SAIPA has the second share of 39.7%. Hyundai with more than 23% and Kia Motors hold 13% of all imported vehicles to Iran. Eight models with largest share of total car import in the year ended March 2017 Sanctions & Post-Sanctions Currently, the auto industry has gone through all the barriers, lack of domestic demand and liquidity bottlenecks in recent years. The auto manufacturing trend has been in the best situation in recent years. Growth in production and sales has led to operating profits increase and by reducing the costs, the margin profit ratio will be on the ascent path. Although, the industry inherited a huge debt from sanctions and has not yet managed to overcome it. At present, much of the operating profit is spent by financial cost and expensive financing results in the debt settlement process slow down. When JCPOA was launched, the auto industry came to life in the year ended March 2017. The recession in the automotive industry in the year ended March 2016 was due to the lack of demand and customers request to reduce prices and new products entry to the market. The recession continued in the year ended March 2016, when entering new international agreements with the world’s leading automotive brands and introducing new products, Iranian automakers set up contracts and tried to regain customer reliance and avoid the recession. Auto parts Since 13,000-16,000 components are used in the production of each vehicle, auto parts manufacturing can be considered as one of the most important competitive and job creator industries which not only meets domestic manufacturers needs and activates other affiliated industries with the automotive industry but also have high export benefits and revenues. Iran has a very high capacity of auto parts industry and after JCPOA, there were great opportunities for foreign companies to participate which highlights the role of parts industry in postJCPOA vehicles. Foreign manufacturers signed contracts with domestic companies and put their products internalization plans on the agenda which means making the use of Iran’s auto parts industry. Today, auto parts industry has created a significant turnover to produce more than 70% of domestic and foreign auto parts. Under current economic conditions, manufacturing 40% of new cars and 100% of auto parts for domestic vehicles is possible. Current situation of automotive Parts in the year ended March 2017 International spare parts manufacturers’ cooperation with Iran Export & Import According to statistics of the last three years auto parts export has had a lot of ups and downs, as it was 180 mn USD, in the year ended March 2015, to 230 mn USD, in the year ended March 2016, while the value of export was 200 mn USD in the year ended March 2017. The vision of 2025 predicts the worsened status of auto parts industry. The domestic manufacturers relate the drop in export to intensified international sanctions which seems to have kept them satisfied with the current situation and refuse to produce domestic vehicles. However, the entry of foreign investors in post-sanction era was a promising point for growth of the manufacturing sector which may not be possible due to retardation of technology and the lack of suitable context in the current situation. Auto parts import & export (mn USD) Rubber The rubber dates back to more than half a century and is one of the most important industries in the value chain of the automotive. Since more than 60% of the raw materials used are oil derivatives, the availability of oil resources makes Iran one of the most susceptible countries for the tire industry. In the Middle East, there are about 25 rubber factories, of which there are 10 factories with a nominal capacity of 363,000 tons per year and with a capacity of more than 15,000 people. The industry has a good economic value added and given the experienced specialists and engineers an economic value of about 995.7 mn USD, with a total turnover of more than 2 bn USD a year. Production Over 243,000 tons were produced with a growth of 15% in the year ended March 2017, compared to the previous year. Rubber production Roughly, 89% of the total volume and about 49% total number of rubber production belonged to auto tires, in the year ended March 2017 Combination of tire production in the year ended March 2017 Domestic Consumption The annual rubber consumption was 350,000 tons in the year ended March 2017, of which 243,000 tons were supplied by domestic producers and the rest are provided through import. The consumption of all types of rubber, auto tires and tubes was 303,475 tons, by 37,142,668 tires in the year ended March 2016. Consumption of tube & rubber (000 tons) Import & Export Excessive tire import has created a lot of problems for tire manufacturers in recent years. As many domestic manufacturers suffered hug loss, this led to tire production decrease in the year ended March 2016. Following and enforcing related laws on the import of non- quality tires restrict, as a result, these decisions resulted in domestic manufacture growth by 15%, in the year ended March 2017, compared to the previous year. In the year ended March 2017, the total import of all types of tires, rubber and tubes amounted to 364.1 mn USD and weighed more than 106,400 tons, up from a year earlier and increased by 4 and 3.3% in terms of value and volume, respectively.