U.S. POPULATION, ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE Center for Environment & Population 1 / U.S. Population and Climate Change, www.cepnet.org U.S. PO pu LATION , EN E RGY & CLIMAT E CHANG E By Victoria D. Markham Center for Environment & Population 1 / U.S. Population and Climate Change, www.cepnet.org Acknowledgements Special thanks to Kara DiFrancesco and Mercedes About This Report Bravo who contributed to the research and writing of this This report is the first in a series of report, and to Martha Farnsworth Riche, Brian O’Neill and publications on U.S. Population, Energy and Nadia Steinzor for their expertise and insights. The Center Climate Change by the Center for Environ- for Environment and Population (CEP) is grateful to the ment and Population (CEP). The series Compton Foundation, Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund, contains brief, easy-to-read reports, fact New-Land Foundation, Wallace Global Fund, Winslow sheets, and briefing materials on population Foundation, and an anonymous donor for their invaluable and climate change trends in the U.S. and support of this project. globally. Activities are also being conducted to integrate the information into U.S. policy Center for Environment and Population and public action at the local, national and (CEP) international levels. The Center for Environment and Population (CEP) is a non-profit research, policy, and public advocacy organization that addresses the relationship between For more information contact: human population and its environmental impacts. The Victoria D. Markham, Director Center works to strengthen the scientific basis of policies Center for Environment and Population (CEP) and public outreach to achieve a long-term sustainable 161 Cherry Street, New Canaan, CT 06840 balance between people and the natural environment in the U.S. and globally. Phone: 203-966-3425 CEP links science to policy, public education, and Fax: 203-966-5443 advocacy to better understand and address the issues. Email: [email protected] To do this, the Center: compiles and assesses the best Website: www.cepnet.org available current knowledge and emerging trends on the issues; produces easy to understand science-based ma- terials for policymakers and the public, and; undertakes activities to integrate the information directly into policies and public outreach. The Center’s work focuses on the U.S. population’s environmental impact in the nation, and within the global context. The Center has two major program areas: Emerging Issues in Environment and Population and Building New Population-Environment Leadership. CEP produces unique, cutting-edge reports and briefing materials including the U.S. National Report on Population and the Environment, U.S. State Reports, the Issues on Population & the Environment series, and the AAAS Atlas of Population and Environment (all available online at www.cepnet.org). Activities are also undertaken to incorporate the information into policy and public outreach. The Center engages leading organizations, scientists, and other experts as partners in its efforts. CEP is a project of the Tides Center, and works in the U.S. (from the local community to national level) and internationally. ©2008 Center for Environment and Population (CEP). All rights reserved. 2 / U.S. Population and Climate Change, www.cepnet.org CONTENTS U.S. Population, Energy & Climate Change Acknowledgements...................................................................................................... 2 Introduction................................................................................................................... 4 U.S. Population and Climate Change Profile The Issues l U.S. Population Factors, Energy Use, and Climate Change...................................... 6 The Effects l Altered Weather, Rising Sea Levels, Freshwater, Biodiversity, Human Health......... 8 In More Detail l Metropolitanization, Land Use, Households.............................................................. 9 l Population and the Coasts.......................................................................................... 12 l Climate Change and Population: Effects and Impacts.............................................. 14 In Your Region: U.S. Population and Climate Change l Northeast, Midwest, South and West......................................................................... 19 Conclusion..................................................................................................................... 21 Endnotes........................................................................................................................ 24 3 / U.S. Population and Climate Change, www.cepnet.org INTRODU C T I ON There is growing evidence that population, linked to energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, is a key factor in global climatic change.1 In the climate change equation, population is the “big multiplier” – particularly when linked with resource consumption – because it intensifies the rate, scale, and scope of both the root causes and effects of climate change in the United States (U.S.), and worldwide. ithin the global context, the U.S. stands their unique combination makes the U.S. one of the out for two reasons: it has by far the world’s most important players in population and climate largest population amongst other industrial- change. Wized nations, the only sizable one with significant While the U.S. “population and climate change” population growth, and; it uses more energy than any connection is complex, it manifests itself in two primary other country and is the largest carbon dioxide (CO2) ways: greenhouse gas emitter amongst industrialized nations l first, population is related to the causes of 2 worldwide. climate change, mainly through high per capita This unique combination – America’s high popula- energy use and greenhouse gas emissions (the tion numbers and growth, together with its high rates of “carbon footprint”) and; per capita energy consumption and pollution – makes l second, population factors can exacerbate the U.S. pivotal in the national and global population- climate change’s effects by placing more pressures climate change debate. on the natural resource base at specific sites, for In simple terms, the U.S. is the world’s largest example, when there is high population density and developed nation, consumes energy and resources at continued rapid growth in coastal, urban, suburban, very high rates, and is growing rapidly. This has major or ecologically vulnerable areas of the U.S. implications for global climate change because the In addition, gains made in addressing climate change American population’s energy consuming habits are so can be made much more difficult – in some cases even disproportionate to that of other nations’. While the U.S. offset altogether – by these population factors, when represents about 5% of the global population, it consumes combined with high per capita natural resource about 25% of the world’s energy, and generates 5 times consumption. the world average of CO2 emissions. Because Americans are high resource consumers in a country with a large, rapidly growing population base, the U.S. has a much bigger “per-person” impact on global U.S.-WORLD POPULATION & CLIMATE CHANGE climate change than any other nation. With about 8,000 people added daily in the U.S., and 3 million people added each year, there’s real potential to reach Population 1 billion high-energy-consuming Americans by 2100. Energy Consumption Meeting the energy demands of this large and rapidly CO² Emissions growing population that consumes elevated levels of resources and energy – while at the same time reducing the greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change – will prove daunting in the coming decades. Even now we are seeing its effects. The relationship between U.S. population trends and global climate change is characterized by several key elements. These include U.S. demographic factors – relatively high population numbers and rapid United States World Europe Developing growth; high and increasing density in coastal and Countries metropolitan areas; an increase in energy-consuming Energy consumption in total kilograms of oil equivalent (Kgoe), households, and; a large “Baby Boomer” population – and CO emissions in metric tons, per person. coupled with high per-capita energy use, fossil fuel 2 burning, land and vehicle use. These are all linked, and Source: US Census Bureau, US Energy Information Administration, World Resources Institute, 2008 4 / U.S. Population and Climate Change, www.cepnet.org INTRODU C T I ON We often see “population growth” and “climate The most recent scientific data reveals the answer, change” as being separate, rather than making the showing that the links between population and climate connection between the two – and this is particularly true change are particularly acute when you look at the U.S. in the U.S. The issues are, however, inextricably linked case within the global arena. In short, while America has and must be understood and addressed at the same time, about 1/20th of the world’s population, it consumes about as they relate to one another, as two sides of the same 1/4th of the world’s energy.11 And, Americans produce coin. This science-based report helps to make that almost 20 tons of CO2 per person per year – about five connection, providing the basic information needed to times the world average – of 4 tons of CO2 per person a better understand these issues, and to take first steps to year, and also substantially