Traffic Impact Assessment Using Micro Simulation for Redevelopment Of

SUBMITTED TO VASTUNIDHI ARCHITECTS135, Block B Sector 44, Noida, Uttar Pradesh 201303

National Buildings Construction Corporation Ltd (NBCC)

Project Title: From Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus Email: [email protected] Phone: +91-8860283661 Address: 327 RCS, Sector 48-A, Chandigarh-160047

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Contents

1. Introduction ...... 9

1.1 Project Background ...... 10

1.2 Need of the study ...... 10

1.3 Objective ...... 11

1.4 Scope of the Study ...... 11

1.5 Study Outcomes ...... 12

1.6 Report Structure ...... 12

2. Project Site Assessment ...... 14

2.1 Project Site ...... 15

2.2 Project Area ...... 17

2.3 Visual Study ...... 19

2.4 Road Inventory ...... 20

2.5 Existing Vehicle Routing ...... 22

2.6 Concern Areas ...... 23

2.7 SWOT Analysis...... 25

2.8 Concerned Stakeholders ...... 26

2.9 Secondary Data ...... 26

2.9.1 Redevelopment Plan of East Kidwai Nagar ...... 27

2.9.2 Barapullah Elevated Corridor – Phase 2 ...... 31

2.10 AIIMS West Campus ...... 32

3. Data Analysis and Traffic Demand Estimation ...... 35

3.1 Primary Traffic Survey ...... 36

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

3.1.1 Mid-block counts and U-Turn Count Analysis and Vehicle Count Survey ...... 36

3.1.2 Passenger Car Equivalency ...... 37

3.1.3 Mid-Block Traffic Volume Count Survey Analysis: Aurbindo Marg near AIIMS West Campus: ...... 38

3.1.4 U Turn Traffic Volume Count Survey Analysis: Aurbindo Marg near AIIMS West Campus: ...... 41

3.1.5 Vehicle In/Out (Entry/Exit) Count Survey at Gate 4 and Gate 5 AIIMS West Campus ...... 43

3.1.6 Analysis In/out volumes from Gate 4 and Gate 5 ...... 47

3.1.7 Vehicle In/Out (Entry/Exit) Count Survey at Masjid More Campus ...... 49

3.2 Traffic Demand Estimation: Introduction ...... 54

3.2.1 Activities Impacting Site Circulation ...... 54

3.2.2 Demand Estimation ...... 56

3.3 Traffic Routing ...... 59

4. Evaluation Using Micro Simulation: Base Model Development ...... 63

4.1 Introduction ...... 64

4.2 Why use micro simulation? ...... 64

4.3 Methodology...... 66

4.4 Model Parameters ...... 67

4.4.1 Developing the Base simulation model elements ...... 67

4.4.2 Coding of Vehicle routes, Conflict areas and reduced speed areas...... 69

4.4.3 Global Settings of Simulation Model ...... 71

4.4.4 Model Calibration and Validation ...... 72

4.4.5 Observations and Calculation from the base model ...... 74

5. Evaluation Using Micro Simulation: Proposed and Mitigation Options ...... 75

5.1 Developing the Simulation Model with Proposed Option ...... 76

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

5.1.1 Proposed Model Simulation Parameters and Assumptions ...... 76

5.2 Proposed Scenario 1 Simulation Model Year 2023 ...... 78

5.2.1 Observations from the proposed Scenario Simulation Model Year 2023 ...... 80

5.2.2 Inference from the Simulation analysis of the proposed model option 1 ...... 83

5.3 Conceptualizing Mitigation Options ...... 83

5.4 Mitigation option ...... 84

5.4.1 Observations from the Mitigation Option ...... 85

5.4.2 Inference from the Simulation analysis of the mitigation option ...... 86

5.5 Recommendations ...... 87

5.6 Updated Site Plan...... 88

5.7 Comparative analysis of the Proposed plan 1 and Updated Plan...... 89

5.8 References ...... 91

List of Figures Figure 1: Site Location Map of AIIMS West Campus, New Delhi ...... 10 Figure 2: Project Site Location ...... 15 Figure 3: Project Site Location on Zonal Development Plan (Zone F) ...... 16 Figure 4: Project Site Intervention Area ...... 16 Figure 5: Existing AIIMS West Campus Site Layout Plan...... 17 Figure 6: Project Site – AIIMS West Campus ...... 18 Figure 7: Project Site and Surrounding ...... 19 Figure 8: Road Hierarchy in the Surrounding Area ...... 20 Figure 9: Road Cross Section of Aurobindo Marg near Foot Over Bridge (FOB) ...... 21 Figure 10: Road Cross Section of Aurobindo Marg at U-turn (IIT to IIT Direction) ...... 22 Figure 11: Road Cross Section of Aurobindo Marg at Signalized Pedestrian Crossing ...... 22 Figure 12: Vehicle Routing at West Campus ...... 23 Figure 13: SWOT Analysis ...... 25 Figure 14: Concerned Stake Holders ...... 26 Figure 15: Project Site – East Kidwai Nagar ...... 27

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 16: Proposed Traffic Circulation Plan of East Kidwai Nagar ...... 28 Figure 17: Access points East Kidwani Nagar Site ...... 30 Figure 18: Phase wise Development of Barapullah Elevated Road ...... 31 Figure 19: Phase 2 Alignment of Barapullah Elevated Road...... 31 Figure 20: Existing and Proposed Transport Infrastructure around the Site ...... 32 Figure 21: Area Details – West Ansari Nagar Campus ...... 33 Figure 22: Existing and Proposed Transport Infrastructure around the Site ...... 33 Figure 23: Proposed Site Layout of AIIMS West Campus ...... 34 Figure 24: Survey Locations ...... 36 Figure 25: Location of the survey points ...... 37 Figure 26: Daily and Peak Hour Mid-Block Traffic Count in Vehicle/Hour ...... 39 Figure 27: Daily and Peak Hour Mid-Block Traffic Count in PCU/Hour ...... 39 Figure 28: Hourly Variation of total traffic from mid-block volume survey ...... 39 Figure 29: Daily Traffic Composition | Mid-Block Section ...... 40 Figure 30: Morning peak hour | Mid-Block Section ...... 40 Figure 31: Evening Peak Hour| Mid-Block Section ...... 40 Figure 32: Daily and Peak Hour for U-Turn Traffic Count in Vehicles/Hour ...... 41 Figure 33: Daily and Peak Hour for U-Turn Traffic Count in PCU/Hour ...... 41 Figure 34: Daily Traffic Composition | U-Turn Section ...... 42 Figure 35: Morning peak hour | U Turn Section ...... 42 Figure 36: Evening Peak Hour | U Turn Section ...... 42 Figure 37: Daily and Peak hour traffic counts | Vehicle In/Out Gate 4 ...... 43 Figure 38: Hourly variation of total In/Out traffic at Gate 4 ...... 44 Figure 39: Daily Traffic Composition | Vehicle Entry/Exit Gate 4 ...... 45 Figure 40: Morning peak hour | Vehicle Entry/Exit Gate 4 ...... 45 Figure 41: Evening Peak Hour | Vehicle Entry/Exit Gate 4 ...... 45 Figure 42: Vehicle In/Out Gate 5 ...... 46 Figure 43: Hourly variation of total In/Out traffic at Gate 5 ...... 46 Figure 44: Daily Traffic Composition | Vehicle Entry/Exit Gate 5 ...... 47 Figure 45: Morning peak hour | Vehicle Entry/Exit Gate 5 ...... 47 Figure 46: Evening Peak Hour | Vehicle Entry/Exit Gate 5 ...... 47 Figure 47: Vehicle In/Out counts combined for gate 4 and gate 5 ...... 48 Figure 48: Arrival rate of total In/Out traffic from gate 4 and 5 ...... 48 Figure 49: Vehicle In/Out Gate Masjid Moth Main Gate ...... 49 Figure 50: Arrival rate of total In/Out traffic from Masjid Moth Main Gate ...... 50 Figure 51: Daily Traffic Composition ...... 51 Figure 52: Morning peak hour | Masjid Moth Main Gate ...... 51 Figure 53: Evening Peak Hour | Masjid Moth Main Gate ...... 51

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 54: Vehicle In/Out Gate Masjid Moth Gate near roundabout ...... 52 Figure 55: Arrival rate of total In/Out traffic from Masjid Moth Main Gate ...... 52 Figure 56: Daily Traffic Composition ...... 53 Figure 57: Morning peak hour | Near Roundabout ...... 53 Figure 58: Evening Peak Hour | Near Roundabout ...... 53 Figure 59: Activates impacting site circulation ...... 55 Figure 60: Existing Routing Pattern of AIIMS traffic to/from West Campus ...... 60 Figure 61: Inbound Directional Routing of AIIMS Traffic ...... 60 Figure 62: Expected Inbound Routing ...... 61 Figure 63: Expected Traffic Outbound Shares ...... 61 Figure 64: Expected Outbound Traffic Routing ...... 62 Figure 65: Methodology for Simulation Model Development ...... 66 Figure 66: Model parameters for the simulation model ...... 67 Figure 67: Coded Network in PTV Vissim ...... 68 Figure 68: Speed and Acceleration Curves ...... 68 Figure 69: Vehicle Static Routing in PTV VISSIM...... 69 Figure 70: Conflict areas ...... 70 Figure 71: Reduced Speed Areas ...... 70 Figure 72: Driving Behaviour Parameter Window in VISSIM ...... 71 Figure 73: Simulation Parameters ...... 72 Figure 74: GEH Standard and Data Collection Points ...... 73 Figure 75: Travel time measurement sections ...... 74 Figure 76: Study Process for the proposed design options ...... 76 Figure 77: Proposed Model Parameters for Simulation ...... 77 Figure 78: Preliminary Layout Model of Hospital Building ...... 78 Figure 79: Observations on the proposed design ...... 79 Figure 80: Snapshot of the simulation model with the proposed design year 2023 ...... 80 Figure 81: Snapshot of circulation of traffic inside the site area ...... 81 Figure 82: Arrival rate for residential vehicles ...... 81 Figure 83: Queue Counter locations ...... 82 Figure 84: Average of Average and maximum queue at various locations ...... 82 Figure 85: Proposed Circulation Plan as Per Mitigation Option 1 ...... 84 Figure 86: Circulation for the dharmshala entry/exit traffic ...... 85 Figure 87: Final Updated Plan of AIIMS West Campus ...... 88 Figure 88: Initial Proposed Option ...... 89 Figure 89: Updated Proposed Plan ...... 89

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

List of Tables Table 1: Concern Stakeholders...... 26 Table 2: Parking Requirement as per MPD 2021 ...... 28 Table 3: Traffic Estimation for the East Kidwai Nagar Redevelopment Area...... 29 Table 4: Estimated Emerging Traffic from East Kidwai Nagar Redevelopment Area ...... 30 Table 5: Parking supply provided ...... 56 Table 6: Hourly traffic estimated numbers ...... 57 Table 7: Vehicle Data of Delhi ...... 58 Table 8: Year wise Vehicular Growth Rates in Delhi ...... 58 Table 9: Estimated Future Vehicular Growth Rates ...... 59 Table 10: Validated results for the simulation base model for turning movement counts ...... 73 Table 11: Validated results for the simulation base model for travel times...... 73 Table 12: Total Simulated Entry Volumes for proposed option ...... 83 Table 13: Delay comparison for Mitigation and Proposed Option from green park to INA through traffic ...... 86 Table 14: Comparative Analysis of Initial Proposed Plan and Updated Plan ...... 90

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

CHECKLIST FOR UTTIPEC'S SUBMISSION: STAGE I+II - Inception Report & Conceptual Design Options

Sl. No. Contents Page no. In Report Context plans overlaid on ZDP, 16 Google/ eicher map of Delhi, identifying the road uses, 1 landmarks, metro stations, etc. network, surrounding/ abutting 18 uses, landmarks, metro stations, etc. Map/survey drawing identifying all existing conditions as relevant, including edge conditions, location of pavements & 20 2 crosswalks, Metro/ bus stations, etc. Photo- 24 documentation of the area to be submitted. Existing and Proposed Circulation Plans showing vehicular, public transport, NMV and pedestrian movement. Street 21 - 23 3 sections to be shown for all typical locations with space allocation for all modes. In case Metro stations exist within the study area, then 4 multimodal integration checklist to be followed for the 17 & 87 street/area planning. Typical junctions design and crossings design to be shown for N.A. (shown in 5 any special conditions. drawing) Conceptual tree plantation plan may be shown if desired by the N.A. (road safety 6 WG. aspect – 87) Comparative evaluation table to be submitted for all Page 91: options based on the following criteria: Comparative - Minimum disruption to existing population analysis on Traffic 7 - Functional requirements flow measures - Ease of implementation different evaluated - Cost (financial and social) option - Aesthetics Simulation models to be prepared only if required by the 8 76-87 GB/WG.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

1. Introduction

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

1.1 Project Background

All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) has awarded the National Buildings Construction Corporation Ltd (NBCC) the AIIMS Campus redevelopment project. A total of about 3000 flats and houses would be developed for the staff and resident doctors, spread over an area of about 78 acres. The redevelopment includes two pockets of AIIMS’ residential plots – the AIIMS Western Campus and Ayurvigyan Nagar in New Delhi.

The Project Site is AIIMS West Campus, located on Sri Aurobindo Marg in South Delhi. The site has an area of 28.03 acres consisting of Type II, III, IV and V quarters, having total 368 numbers of dwelling units on present day.

Figure 1: Site Location Map of AIIMS West Campus, New Delhi

1.2 Need of the study

AIIMS West Campus is located in Ansari Nagar, South Delhi. It has existing 368 numbers of doctors/staff flats. The campus is being proposed to be upgraded and redeveloped by increasing the number of dwelling units to 868 numbers along with development of Dharamshala for patients and commercial developments (retails shops and offices/service apartments).

The increase in number of units with commercial activities would attract/generate vehicular trips which may impact or may get impacted due to the traffic on Aurobindo marg. Traffic Study considering the additional traffic for the ultimate phase development has been done, to quantify the impact and propose implementable mitigation measures using Simulation tool.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

There is a need to determine the potential traffic impact due to the proposed Redevelopment by estimating the expected traffic generated / attracted to the site and on the surrounding road network. The Impact due to/and on background traffic (through traffic) considering the site frictions, on/from the Site

bound vehicles needs to be examined and quantified. This may impact network flow on Aurobindo Marg.

1.3 Objective

The objectives of the Traffic Study are to find out the following: -

 Present traffic conditions in and around the Project Site of AIIMS West Campus,

 Highlighting the issues & concerns,

 Level of Services of the surrounding network,

 Site demand assessment,

 Traffic impact assessment of the proposed redevelopment

 Conceptual improvement scheme at site and network level 1.4 Scope of the Study

The scope of work is as per the given project activities:

• Conduct primary Traffic Survey on normal working day (14 Hrs) to analyse existing level of services and volume counts around the site.

• Forecast traffic volumes for the future years (Horizon year, Phases I & II will be functional) to analyse future level of services and demand.

• To prepare a calibrated and validated simulation model for base year, and horizon years. To evaluate proposed plan in terms of queue lengths, delays conflict points and bottlenecks.

• Propose road infrastructure improvement required to cater to the future traffic demand with the project.

• To evaluate proposed AIIMS West Campus design w.r.t traffic circulation and network connectivity and recommend mitigation measures (in case the design does not work).

As per the UTTIPEC submission format, traffic study should cover the impact of the new development in terms of the traffic circulation (access gates), impact on through traffic, mitigation measures for the possible impact.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

In this particular case, the internal placement of ramps, location of access gates and internal circulation may also impact the flow of traffic on Aurobindo marg.

Traffic study has also been done for the placement of internal ramps (commercial activity), and location of access gates (Dharamshala). These have coded and evaluated through micro simulation tool.

1.5 Study Outcomes

The Traffic Impact Assessment study outcomes have been listed below in two stages, Stage I – comprising of the traffic impact assessment report and Stage II – comprising of the evaluation of the proposed developments and traffic circulation options using micro simulation software.

Stage-1: Traffic Impact Assessment

• To estimate existing level of service in the project influence area.

• To estimate the expected demand in terms of vehicular trips at the site level as well as at the network level.

• To plan site entry/exit options.

• Provide a contextual analysis in terms of existing planning and transportation proposals and its impact on the site and its context.

• Support in detailed analysis of local road legislations applicable to the site and provide risk analysis for the same

• To prepare a traffic impact assessment study report

Stage-II: Traffic Simulation

 To evaluate different entry/exit options through Micro simulation.

 To prepare simulation model for the base year, & post operation level (completion of phase I and phase II) to evaluate traffic management schemes covering weekday peak hour (entry and exit).

 Analyzing different statistical simulation outputs and recommending the most suitable and implementable solution for each phase.

 To present simulation outputs, conclusions, and recommendation

1.6 Report Structure

This Final Traffic Report contains estimation and recommendation based on the data provided, primary and secondary data collected and discussion with project architecture team and NBCC.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Chapter-1 describes the introduction of the site, need for the study, objective, and the scope of the study.

Chapter-2 speaks about project description with SWOT analysis and activities impacting traffic with the location of the site and secondary data collected.

Chapter-3 describes the existing traffic assessment including primary traffic survey analyses, observation and traffic demand estimation comprising parking demand and peak vehicle entry/exit calculation.

Chapter-4 and 5 describes the evaluation using Micro Simulation, traffic circulation inside and outside the proposed AIIMS West Campus with pros and cons of different circulation. Explains the development of mitigation options and presents the final recommendations.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

2. Project Site Assessment

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

2.1 Project Site

The Proposed Site is AIIMS West Campus, located on Sri Aurobindo Marg, beside Safdarjung Hospital, about 330m from the AIIMS intersection on Ring Road. Total area under the scheme is 113,433.20 sq.m. (28.03 acres).

The Site is situated in South Delhi and is well-connected to all parts of the city via roads and metro. The Ring Road is about 330m from the site and the Outer Ring Road is at a distance of about 2.10km. Sri Aurobindo Marg, on which the site is located, is one of the major arterial roads of Delhi. The AIIMS metro station is just about 140m from the campus gate.

Figure 2: Project Site Location

The Project Site is located in Zone (division) F, South Delhi-I as per the Zonal Development Plan, June 2010 (figure 3). The land use as per Zonal Development Plan (ZDP) is public / semi public – hospital. Surrounding land uses are mixed with residential being predominant along with public and semi public (hospital).

A crematorium ground is located at back side of the site (west of site). The site is accessible from Sri Aurobindo Marg, which has ROW of 60m as per ZDP.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 3: Project Site Location on Zonal Development Plan (Zone F) The site intervention area (figure 4) includes the immediate access roads at the entry/exit gates (i.e. Aurobindo Marg for the project site). The intervention area further includes the internal site layout planning (e.g. location of ramps, entry/exit gates, vehicle holding area etc.), along with internal traffic circulation which might impact on the network traffic (i.e. through traffic).

Figure 4: Project Site Intervention Area

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

The existing project site plan has been presented in the following figure 5. Currently Type II, III, IV and V quarters comprising of total 368 dwelling units are present. Safdarjung Hospital is towards the north of the site and Ansari Nagar residential area is at the south. Towards the west, buildings of Safdarjung Hospital are under construction and in the east the Aurobindo Marg is situated. There is a tunnel passing through the campus, connecting the Trauma Centre of Safdarjung Hostipital to the AIIMS Hospital Trauma Centre, which is currently not in use.

Figure 5: Existing AIIMS West Campus Site Layout Plan

2.2 Project Area

The project area is located in South Delhi on Sir Aurobindo Marg beside Safdarjung Hospital and opposite to the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS). The site is located at a distance of about 330m from the AIIMS intersection. The AIIMS metro station, on Delhi Metro yellow line is about 140m from Gate 5 of the project site. The Delhi Metro pink line is under construction, which will intersect the yellow line at INA station, which is about 1.1km from the West Campus. As per the secondary information collected, MMI plan of existing AIIMS metro station has been approved in UTTIPEC Working group meeting, as per the MMI checklist. In addition signalised pedestrian crossing and through FOB has been improved in the proposal given in Ch-5 of this report.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 6: Project Site – AIIMS West Campus

Delhi Haat is located north of the site, about 800m from the campus. One of the major developments in the area is the redevelopment of the East Kidwai Nagar, over an area of 83 acres land. The Barapullah elevated corridor is functional partially and the last leg of Phase 2 is under construction. The elevated corridor is proposed to connect to the AIIMS cloverleaf finally in Phase 2 and further to Dhaula Kuan at one side and Mayur Vihar I at the other in the future phases.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 7: Project Site and Surrounding

2.3 Visual Study

Traffic team carried out a thorough visual study of the site and its surroundings. Sample visual surveys at the critical areas were also done. Few snapshots of the site are presented below:

Access Road in front of the Site – AIIMS West Aurobindo Marg and the U-Turn in front of Campus (Gate 4) the site (IIT to IIT)

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Foot Over Bridge (FOB) on Aurobindo Marg in front of Gate 4

2.4 Road Inventory

The major road network around the site consists of Sri Aurobindo Marg of 60 m ROW, connecting Mahatma Gandhi Road (Ring Road) of 64m ROW at one side and Outer Ring Road of 45m ROW on the other side (figure 8).

Figure 8: Road Hierarchy in the Surrounding Area

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

The road inventory details have been presented as follows.

The existing road cross sections around the site have been presented below.

Figure 9: Road Cross Section of Aurobindo Marg near Foot Over Bridge (FOB)

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 10: Road Cross Section of Aurobindo Marg at U-turn (IIT to IIT Direction)

Figure 11: Road Cross Section of Aurobindo Marg at Signalized Pedestrian Crossing

2.5 Existing Vehicle Routing Sri Aurobindo Marg is the main access road to the West Campus connecting to the Mahatma Gandhi Road (Ring Road) at one side and the Outer Ring road at the other. Traffic coming from India Gate area and north and east of Delhi, Noida access the site via Ring road from the AIIMS intersection. Traffics from Mehrauli and IIT access the site from Outer Ring Road direction. The existing vehicle routing to the site has been presented below in figure 12

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 12: Vehicle Routing at West Campus 2.6 Concern Areas

The key possible concern areas identified at the surrounding network level and at the project site level have been listed below0c flow on Aurobindo Marg

 On street car and IPT (auto rickshaw, taxi) parking  Pedestrian infrastructure  Road infrastructure and geometric  Merging and diverging lengths for traffic  Bottlenecks and delay points  Urban design – model streets

Concerns areas at the Project Site Level

 Location of site access (entry / exit) gates along Aurobindo Marg  Holding lengths within site for queueing at checkpoints  Merging / diverging lengths for traffic entering and exiting West Campus  Safe Pedestrian crossings  Bottlenecks and delay points within site

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Existing Signalized Pedestrian Crossing at AIIMS on Existing At-Grade U-Turn (Ring Road to Ring Aurobindo Marg road direction)

Existing At-Grade U-Turn (IIT to IIT direction) Site access gate VS the road infrastructure / geometrics and FOB taking up walking space on footpath

On-street IPT and car Parking near FOB Merging and Diverging lengths from Planned site access gate

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

2.7 SWOT Analysis

SWOT is a structured planning method used to evaluate the Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threats involved in a project. SWOT will give internal and external factors that are favorable and unfavorable for achieving the objective as given in figure 13 below.

Figure 13: SWOT Analysis

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

2.8 Concerned Stakeholders

The concerned stakeholders for various road infrastructure developments have been presented in the following figure 14 and table 1.

Figure 14: Concerned Stake Holders

Table 1: Concern Stakeholders Sl. No. Key Concerns Concerned Stakeholders

1 Aurobindo Marg – infrastructure Public Works Department (PWD), development/modification Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (GNCTD)

2 Pedestrian Signal Delhi Traffic Police

3 Existing Foot Over Bridge (FOB) PWD, GNCTD

2.9 Secondary Data

As per information collected from various sources there are under construction projects around the site that will have impact on the surrounding traffic. The projects under construction have been briefed below.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

2.9.1 Redevelopment Plan of East Kidwai Nagar

Redevelopment of East Kidwai Nagar, Delhi is an ambitious project initiated by MoUD through NBCC (India) Ltd. as Project Implementation Agency.Being one of the biggest Redevelopment project in NCR at East Kidwai Nagar, Delhi, the proposed development is:-

1. Construction of 4608 Flats (Type II to Type VII) 76 towers in place of existing 2331 Flats (Type I, Type II & Type V)

2. Social Infra-Structure facilities consist of 3 Schools, Local Shopping Centre (LSC), Dispensary, Milk Booths and Banquet Hall. (Already completed and inaugurated).

3. Office Complex for Government Departments / PSU - 4 Blocks

4. Beautification/ Rehabilitation of Darya Khan Tomb area of 14 Acres Green Area.

The total land area is 86 acres (348,042 sq.m) and permissible density as per Master Plan for Delhi (MPD) varies between 175 to 250 dwelling units per hectare (DU/HA).

Figure 15: Project Site – East Kidwai Nagar

The parking requirement for the development has been presented in the following table 2.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Table 2: Parking Requirement as per MPD 2021

Source: uttipec.nic.in/writereaddata/linkimages/5115893084.pdf

The proposed traffic circulation plan of the redeveloped area along with the traffic estimation of the area has been presented in figure 16 below.

Figure 16: Proposed Traffic Circulation Plan of East Kidwai Nagar

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Table 3: Traffic Estimation for the East Kidwai Nagar Redevelopment Area

Source: uttipec.nic.in/writereaddata/linkimages/5115893084.pdf

The emerging traffic scenario as was estimated for the East Kidwai Nagar Redevelopment project has been considered for the future estimated traffic on Aurobindo Marg. The emerging traffic as was estimated for the development has been presented below in table 4.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Table 4: Estimated Emerging Traffic from East Kidwai Nagar Redevelopment Area

Source: uttipec.nic.in/writereaddata/linkimages/5115893084.pdf

Figure 17: Access points East Kidwani Nagar Site

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

2.9.2 Barapullah Elevated Corridor – Phase 2

Barapullah elevated corridor is functional partially. The Phase 1 stretch between Sarai Kale Khan and Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium was commissioned during the Commonwealth games, which is functional at present. In Phase 2 the road is being extended till INA, construction work is on and likely to be functional by mid 2018. A brief of all phases of development of the elevated corridor has been presented below in figure 18.

Figure 18: Phase wise Development of Barapullah Elevated Road Source: http://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi/barapullah-elevated-corridor-to-reach-delhi-airport-by- 2020/story-VS0c5T3j4s2itkUGWQuijK.html

The Phase 2 alignment of the Barapullah elevated road, as approved has been presented below.

Figure 19: Phase 2 Alignment of Barapullah Elevated Road

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Presently the traffic coming from partially constructed Barapullah elevated road is using the Aurobindo Marg for its later course of trip. Due to traffic congestion on Ring Road during peak hours and comparatively slow traffic on it at other parts of the day, traffic coming from Sarai Kale Khan Region prefers Barapullah elevated road to reach south Delhi. This holds same for the reverse traffic as well. Hence when the elevated corridor will be complete till Phase 2, some more traffic is expected to get diverted on it. This factor has been considered while estimating the future vehicular growth rates for the project horizon year, in addition the factor for the estimated generated traffic from kidwai nagar is also to the network traffic.

Figure 20: Existing and Proposed Transport Infrastructure around the Site

2.10 AIIMS West Campus

The secondary data as collected from the Project Architect, VastuNidhi and which are of relevance to the Traffic Impact Study have been presented below. Based on these data our basic assumptions for micro simulation model and demand calculations have been done.

The West Campus will be developed in two phases. In Phase 1, Type IV (special) type of two G+12 towers will be constructed having 117 units and 156 units respectively. These are planned to be delivered in first 30 months, i.e. 2019 and the rest of the buildings and developments will be ready by next 30 months, i.e. 2023. The area details of the proposed Campus development are presented below.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 21: Area Details – West Ansari Nagar Campus

The parking requirement as planned for the development is as follows.

 Phase-1 = Total no. of flats- 273 | Required Parking = 546 Cars  Phase-2 = Total No. of flats -597 | Required Parking = 3173 Cars  For residential-1311 | For dharamshala –745 | For Commercial-1117

Figure 22: Existing and Proposed Transport Infrastructure around the Site

The proposed site layout of AIIMS West Campus has been presented below in figure 23. The campus will have separate entry /exit gates for commercial area, residential area and dharamshala. All parking’s have been

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus planned at basement with only few surface short term parking’s for the dharamshala. Drop off / pick up areas have been planned for each area. For commercial area there are two entry ramps and one exit ramp, while for the residences three entry and exit ramps each have been planned for easy accessibility to/from ramp.

Figure 23: Proposed Site Layout of AIIMS West Campus

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

3. Data Analysis and Traffic Demand Estimation

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

3.1 Primary Traffic Survey

For the present study to understand the traffic movement and volumes at the road section adjacent to the site and to estimate the traffic movement in/out of the site during peak hour primary surveys following primary surveys are conducted at the locations marked in figure 2.

• Mid-Block Traffic Count and U-Turn Traffic Count • In/Out traffic volume count at Gate 4 and Gate 5 of the AIIMS west campus • In/Out traffic volume count at Masjid moth gate

The brief methodology adopted, location, nature and extent of data collected have been discussed below. The data collected have been analyzed to assess the existing traffic and travel pattern of intra city traffic movement.

Figure 24: Survey Locations

3.1.1 Mid-block counts and U-Turn Count Analysis and Vehicle Count Survey

The objective of the primary survey is to assess the traffic flow characteristics of each arm on the road adjacent to the proposed site. The survey was carried for 14 hours (07:00 to 21:00 Hours) in fine weather condition on normal working day on February 27, 2017. The mid-block count and U-turn survey was done at the locations indicated given in figure 2 and 3. These location were selected for the survey for these are the junctions in the vicinity of the site with major impact of the surrounding and site inbound/outbound traffic.

Additionally vehicle count survey was conducted at the gates of the existing AIIMS west campus Masjid Moth to understand the total entries, arrival rate and the peak hour for similar infrastructure as the proposed site as shows in figure 25.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 25: Location of the survey points

3.1.2 Passenger Car Equivalency

Different vehicle types with respect to size, performance etc. can be observed on Indian roads daily. In order to express the intensity of traffic, it would be convenient to express all these different vehicle type in single unit terms. For this purpose, IRC has recommended a set of Passenger Car Units (PCU’s) for various vehicle types considering their characteristics, both physical and mechanical. These factors are different for rural and urban conditions. For the existing analysis PCU factors recommended by IRC for urban areas in IRC 106:1990 have been adopted and are present in the table 3 below.

Table 3 Passenger Car Units (PCU) Type Mode PCU's

Passenger Car/Jeep/Van/Taxi 1 Vehicles Auto/Shared Auto 1

Two Wheeler 0.5

Mini Bus 1.5

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Type Mode PCU's

Standard Bus 3

Mini LCV 1

LCV 1.5

2/3 Axle 3 Freight Vehicles Multi Axle 4.5

Agriculture Tractor 1.5

Agriculture Tractor Trailer 4.5

Animal/Hand Drawn 2 Slow Moving Cycle 0.5 Vehicles Cycle Rickshaw 6

Source: IRC 106:1990

3.1.3 Mid-Block Traffic Volume Count Survey Analysis: Aurbindo Marg near AIIMS West Campus:

Mid-block traffic volume count survey was conducted between 0700 – 2100 hours for the duration of 14 hours at the location discussed in previous section. The total traffic volume movement diagram for the flows from different directions and the observed traffic composition has been presented below.

3.1.3.1 Mid-Block Traffic Volume Count: Daily and Peak Hour

Figure 26 and 27 below provides the total daily traffic volume movement diagram in vehicles per hour and PCU’S respectively for the flows from different directions. From the INA to Green Park direction daily traffic of 37686 PCU’s is observed and from Green Park to INA direction daily traffic of 39919 PCU’ is observed. The morning peak hour is observed from 08:45 to 09:45 Hours, with 3246 PCU observed from INA to Green Park and 3762 PCU observed from Green Park to INA. The evening peak hour is observed from 17:45 to 18:45 Hours with, 3276 PCU observed from INA to Green Park and 3076 PCU observed from Green Park to INA. During morning peak hour the traffic is slightly higher from Green Park to INA and during evening peak the opposite is observed. Both direction of flow are observed to have nearly 50:50 distribution in terms of total traffic on the road.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 26: Daily and Peak Hour Mid-Block Traffic Count in Vehicle/Hour

Figure 27: Daily and Peak Hour Mid-Block Traffic Count in PCU/Hour

Figure 28 below provides hourly variation of total volume indicating the peak hour flow during the morning and evening time as explained above. The peak hour factor is estimated at 9.5%.

Figure 28: Hourly Variation of total traffic from mid-block volume survey

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

3.1.3.2 Average Daily and peak hour traffic composition

Figure 29-31 shows the daily and peak hour traffic composition for the mid-block section. It is observed that Car have maximum traffic composition with daily value at 47.08%, and composition of 49.94% and 51.04% during the morning and evening peak hour respectively. Cars are followed by two wheelers with average daily composition of 22.05% followed by autos with average daily composition of 17.25%. Goods traffic composition is less than 2% indicating over 98% of passenger vehicles on the road section.

Figure 29: Daily Traffic Composition | Mid-Block Section

Figure 30: Morning peak hour | Mid-Block Figure 31: Evening Peak Hour| Mid-Block Section Section

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

3.1.4 U Turn Traffic Volume Count Survey Analysis: Aurbindo Marg near AIIMS West Campus:

U Turn traffic volume count survey was conducted between 0700 – 2100 hours for the duration of 14 hours at the location discussed in previous section. The total traffic volume movement diagram for the flows from different directions and the observed traffic composition has been presented below.

3.1.4.1 U Turn Traffic Volume Count: Daily and Peak Hour

Figure 32 and 33 below provides the total daily traffic volume movement diagram in vehicles per hour and PCU’S respectively for the u turn movement. From the INA to INA direction daily u turn traffic of 12056 PCU’s is observed and from Green Park to Green Park direction daily traffic of 13593 PCU’ is observed. During morning peak hour from 08:45 to 09:45 Hours, 1146 PCU observed from INA to INA direction and 1187 PCU’s observed from Green Park to Green Park direction. The evening peak hour is observed from 17:45 to 18:45 Hours with, 785 PCU observed from INA to INA direction and 1135 PCU observed from Green Park to Green Park. These numbers indicate significant u turn movement in both the directions, which is primarily due to existing traffic management plan in the site vicinity. It is observed that nearly 30% of the mid block traffic from both directions use the u turn.

Figure 32: Daily and Peak Hour for U-Turn Traffic Count in Vehicles/Hour

Figure 33: Daily and Peak Hour for U-Turn Traffic Count in PCU/Hour

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

3.1.4.2 Average Daily and peak hour traffic composition | U Turn Section

Figure 34-36 shows the daily and peak hour traffic composition for the u turn section. It is observed that although cars have maximum traffic composition with daily value at 38.01%, the second highest composition of is observed for Auto rickshaws with average daily value of 30.23%. This can be attributed to pickups/drop off at the nearby green park and AIIMS metro station gates. During morning peak hours car, auto and two wheeler composition is observed at 43.33%, 39.17% and 11.26%, and in the evening peak hour car, auto and two wheeler composition is observed at 37.72%, 25.67% and 25.58% indicating increase in number of two wheeler traffic composition.

Figure 34: Daily Traffic Composition | U-Turn Section

Figure 35: Morning peak hour | U Turn Figure 36: Evening Peak Hour | U Turn Section Section

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

3.1.5 Vehicle In/Out (Entry/Exit) Count Survey at Gate 4 and Gate 5 AIIMS West Campus

Vehicle counts for In/Out traffic at gate 4 and gate 5 is conducted from 7:00 to 21:00, for accessing the entry/exit traffic patterns as well as the arrival rate of vehicles. Below we discuss the total volume, entry/exit rate and traffic composition at both the gates.

3.1.5.1 Vehicle In/Out counts at Gate 4

Figure 37 below provides the daily and peak hour in/out vehicle count at Gate 4. The peak hour observed in the morning is from 11:15 to 12:15 and in the evening peak hour is from 18:00 to 19:00. The total daily “In” traffic is observed at 759 vehicles and out traffic is observed at 1574 vehicles, providing a ratio of nearly 1:2 between the In and the Out traffic. Same ratio is observed during both the morning and the evening peak hour as indicated in figure 15. It is observed that this gate predominately used by “Out” going traffic.

Figure 37: Daily and Peak hour traffic counts | Vehicle In/Out Gate 4

Figure 38 below provides the arrival rate of entry and exit vehicles during the day, it is observed traffic movement both in and out is consistent over the entire day, with peak hour factor for both “In” traffic and “Out” traffic at 8%. As discussed earlier the total “Out” traffic is nearly 2 times the total “In” traffic.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Hourly Variation of In/Out Traffic at Gate 4 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Number Vehicles of 20 0

Time of Day

IN Out

Figure 38: Hourly variation of total In/Out traffic at Gate 4

3.1.5.2 Vehicle In/Out Traffic Composition at Gate 4

From the survey it is observed that daily composition of two wheeler (55.92%) is highest, followed by cars with 30.60% composition and autos 4.29%. Taxi drop off/pick up daily composition is observed at 8.33%. High two wheeler composition is expected due to type of dwelling units (Low-Medium income group) and visitors profile in the campus. During peak hours two wheeler traffic composition is nearly 60%. No goods traffic is observed.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 39: Daily Traffic Composition | Vehicle Entry/Exit Gate 4

Figure 40: Morning peak hour | Vehicle Figure 41: Evening Peak Hour | Vehicle Entry/Exit Gate 4 Entry/Exit Gate 4

3.1.5.3 Vehicle In/Out counts at Gate 5

Figure 42 below provides the daily and peak hour in/out vehicle count at Gate 5. The peak hour observed in the morning is from 12:30 to 13:30 and in the evening peak hour is from 18:00 to 19:00. The total daily “In” traffic is observed at 1524 vehicles and out traffic is observed at 469 vehicles, which is opposite to the scenario observed in Gate 4. During the morning/afternoon peak hour total “IN” going traffic is175 vehicles and “Out” going traffic is 32 vehicles, and during peak mentioned values are at 177 and 81 respectively.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 42: Vehicle In/Out Gate 5

Figure 43 below provides the arrival rate of entry and exit vehicles during the day, it is observed traffic movement both in and out is consistent over the entire day, with peak hour factor for “In” traffic is estimated at 11.6% and “Out” traffic is estimated at 17%, this can be inferred from the sharp peak observed in the evening for the outgoing traffic.

Hourly Variation of In/Out Traffic at Gate 5 250

200

150

100

50 Number Vehicles of 0 0700-0800 0730-0830 0800-0900 0830-0930 0900-1000 0930-1030 1000-1100 1030-1130 1100-1200 1130-1230 1200-0100 1230-0130 1300-1400 1330-1430 1400-1500 1430-1530 1500-1600 1530-1630 1600-1700 1630-1730 1700-1800 1730-1830 1800-1900 1830-1930 1900-2000 1930-2030 2000-2100 Time of day

IN Out

Figure 43: Hourly variation of total In/Out traffic at Gate 5

3.1.5.4 Vehicle In/Out Composition at Gate 5

From the survey it is observed that daily composition of two wheeler (59.66%) is highest, followed by cars with 28.05% composition and autos 5.42%. Taxi drop off/pick up daily composition is observed at 4.32%, the composition of is similar to as observed on gate 4. Peak hour composition are similar as daily composition with

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus two wheeler having maximum composition of 53.52% during morning peak hour and 59.28% during evening peak hour. No goods traffic is observed.

Figure 44: Daily Traffic Composition | Vehicle Entry/Exit Gate 5

Figure 45: Morning peak hour | Vehicle Figure 46: Evening Peak Hour | Vehicle Entry/Exit Gate 5 Entry/Exit Gate 5

3.1.6 Analysis In/out volumes from Gate 4 and Gate 5

From the observed data it is observed that the ratio of number of vehicles going “In” from gate 5 to the number of vehicles going “Out” from gate 5 is very high, and for gate 4 the opposite is observed with high “Out” going traffic. Figure 25 below combines the total “In” and “Out” going vehicle counts from gate 4 and gate 5. The total “In” and “Out” vehicle counts are close to each other, this shows that vehicle preference for going “In” is towards gate 5 and going “Out” is from gate 4, this is due to the location of the U-turn in front of the site and the traffic circulation, vehicles exiting from gate 4 can go to either green park direction or INA, and vehicle entering from gate 5 take the u turn in the direction of INA, coming from direction of INA. Thus high incoming traffic comes from the INA, AIIMS, or from north of the side which takes U-turn and enter from gate 5 while

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus entering the site and during exit same vehicles can take u-turn near gate 4 to access the east campus site (masjid moth).

Figure 47: Vehicle In/Out counts combined for gate 4 and gate 5

Figure 48: Arrival rate of total In/Out traffic from gate 4 and 5

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

3.1.7 Vehicle In/Out (Entry/Exit) Count Survey at Masjid More Campus

Vehicle counts for In/Out traffic at main masjid moth gate and near roundabout as mentioned earlier, is conducted from 07:00 to 21:00, for accessing the entry/exit traffic patterns as well as the arrival rate of vehicles. Below we discuss the total volume, entry/exit rate and traffic composition at both the gates.

3.1.7.1 Vehicle In/Out counts at Main Masjid Moth Gate

Figure 49 below provides the daily and peak hour in/out vehicle count at masjid moth main gate. The peak hour observed in the morning is from 09:00 to 10:00 with high volume of entries and in the evening peak hour is from 17:15 to 18:15 with high volume of exit traffic. The total daily “In” traffic is observed at 2380 vehicles and out traffic is observed at 1905 vehicles. During morning peak hour entry volume is high with 442 entry volume, and during evening peak hour Exit vehicle volume is dominant with observed 341 vehicles exiting.

Figure 49: Vehicle In/Out Gate Masjid Moth Main Gate

Figure 50 showing the arrival rate of vehicles during the survey period, showing the variation of in/out traffic during different time of day with AM peak dominated by IN vehicles and PM peak dominated by OUT vehicles. The peak hour factor for “In” vehicles with higher volume during morning period is observed at 18.5% and for “out” vehicles during evening is observed at 17.9%.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Hourly Variation of Entry/Exit at Masjid Moth Main gate 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100

Number Vehicles of 50 0 0700-0800 0730-0830 0800-0900 0830-0930 0900-1000 0930-1030 1000-1100 1030-1130 1100-1200 1130-1230 1200-0100 1230-0130 1300-1400 1330-1430 1400-1500 1430-1530 1500-1600 1530-1630 1600-1700 1630-1730 1700-1800 1730-1830 1800-1900 1830-1930 1900-2000 1930-2030 2000-2100 Time of Day

IN Out

Figure 50: Arrival rate of total In/Out traffic from Masjid Moth Main Gate

3.1.7.2 Vehicle In/Out Composition at Masjid Moth Main Gate

From the survey it is observed that daily composition of two wheeler (51.27%) is highest, followed by cars with 34.01% composition and autos 7.91%. Taxi drop off/pick up daily composition is observed at 2.87%. Peak hour composition are similar as daily composition with two wheeler having maximum composition of 53.71% during morning peak hour and 55.27% during evening peak hour. No goods traffic is observed.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 51: Daily Traffic Composition

Figure 52: Morning peak hour | Masjid Moth Figure 53: Evening Peak Hour | Masjid Moth Main Gate Main Gate

3.1.7.3 Vehicle In/Out counts at Masjid Moth Gate near roundabout

Figure 54 below provides the daily and peak hour in/out vehicle count at masjid moth gate near roundabout. The peak hour observed in the morning is from 08:00 to 09:00 and in the evening peak hour is from 17:00 to 18:00, which is similar to as observed in the main gate. The total daily “In” traffic is observed at 1446 vehicles and out traffic is observed at 1685 vehicles. During morning peak hour exit volume is high with 191 vehicles exiting, and during evening peak hour entry vehicle volume is dominant with observed 221 vehicles entering.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 54: Vehicle In/Out Gate Masjid Moth Gate near roundabout

Hourly Variation of Entry/Exit at Masjid Moth Main gate 250 200 150 100 50 0 Number ofVehicles Number

Time of Day

IN Out

Figure 55: Arrival rate of total In/Out traffic from Masjid Moth Main Gate

Figure 55 showing the arrival rate of vehicles during the survey period, showing the variation of in/out traffic during different time of day with entry/exit nearly equally distributed over the day. As discussed in previous section the evening peak has higher “In” traffic and morning peak with higher “Out” traffic. Peak hour factor for exit traffic during morning peak hour is observed at 11.33% and for entering traffic during morning peak hour is observed at 15.2%.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

3.1.7.4 Vehicle In/Out Composition at Masjid Moth Gate near roundabout

From the survey it is observed that daily composition of two wheeler (42.04%) is highest, followed by cars with 39.52% composition and autos 11.98%. Taxi drop off/pick up daily composition is observed at 3.58%. Morning peak hour composition has nearly equal composition for two wheeler (34.57%) and cars (37.65%) and 55.27% during evening peak hour two wheeler have highest composition with 47.01%. No goods traffic is observed.

Figure 56: Daily Traffic Composition

Figure 57: Morning peak hour | Near Figure 58: Evening Peak Hour | Near Roundabout Roundabout

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

3.2 Traffic Demand Estimation: Introduction

Traffic demand estimation plays a vital role in providing the facilities inside the development with respect to the expected demands. The demand estimation is to be made carefully by considering all the required parameter to accommodate the expected demand in the peak hour.

Estimating the demand for the project site is important task and has to be carried out near accurately.

Various activities impact the traffic circulation of commercial retail store. Particularly in Indian scenario, there are side frictions in from of hawkers, pedestrian spillover on the main carriageway; pick-up and drop off points, on street parking and non-lane behavior. In this particular case of retail store, sometimes these factors impact the vehicle entry volumes, queue lengths and parking demand.

The traffic demand estimation needs to be undertaken at two levels: (1) Site level and (2) Network level. The Network level demand consists of through traffic generated/attracted from the developments in the vicinity of Project site. Site Level demand is traffic destined to project site.

3.2.1 Activities Impacting Site Circulation

Various activities impact the traffic circulation, particularly in Indian scenario, there are side frictions in form of incident parking, pedestrian spillover on the main carriageway; pick-up and drop off points. In this particular case of mixed use activities within the site, sometimes these factors impact the vehicle entry/exit volumes, peak hour shares and queue lengths.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Residents / Visitors

Employee/ Circulation Staff

Space AIIMS WEST Campus Traffic inbound/ Parking outbound routing Pick up/Drop off

Figure 59: Activates impacting site circulation

It is important that AIIMS West Campus planning and design exercise responds to the operational requirements along with existing capacity and future (horizon year) demand estimates along with site access gate locations and interaction with external environment. Traffic team, worked on the secondary data review, primary survey inferences, understanding the existing supply wrt no. of flats, and discussions held with the concerned ground staff and project architect. These inputs were crucial and were considered in estimating the expected entry-exit volumes of all modes.

Amount of traffic likely to be attracted due to the proposed development have been estimated by on the basis of expected footfall, peak entry/exit share, occupancy, peak hour factor and modal split of expected footfall for various activities. The background traffic has been projected for the ultimate development year 2023 also considering the future developments like Kidwai Nagar redevelopment in the project site vicinity.

Prediction of future traffic should be more accurate which directly depend on the future infrastructure facilities and also determines the financial viability of the project. Recognizing this, efforts have been

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

made to carefully assess all the parameters that help in predicting the footfall, vehicular demand and thus required traffic demand management measures for the rush hours.

“Following section describes methodology adopted in estimation of traffic likely to be generated/attracted due to AIIMS West Campus, new generated traffic in the vicinity of the project site and the expected traffic access road.

3.2.2 Demand Estimation

Demand estimation has been done at:

1. Network level: Through traffic growth and nearby development traffic (which also non-destined). This has been done through Econometric modelling considering population, and NSDP. Secondary data from Statistical Handbook – 2014 and Kidwai Nagar redevelopment traffic report has been referred. Expected traffic on Aurobindo marg section near project site in common peak hour has been added in the total forecasted traffic for 2023.

2. Site Level Demand: Classified vehicular demand has been estimated by 2-methods: a. Parking Supply: The total parking spots provided in retail, residential area, Dharamshala, offices and service apartments have been considered along with peak hour share during various time of day, and entry/exit ratio. The peak hour share has been estimated from the primary survey conducted at existing West Campus site and the typologies of dwelling units along with the two wheeler and car modal shares. In addition to the parking supply numbers, floating population from autos and taxis and school vehicles have also been added in the entry/exit volumes.

Table 5: Parking supply provided Parking Supply as per Plan

Residential 1859

Retail 1183

Dharamshala 746

Total 3788

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Table 6: Hourly traffic estimated numbers

11:00 12:00 15:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 21:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 ------

Type - 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 10:00 12:00 15:00 17:00 18:00 19:00

Residential 128 359 257 308 128 308 385 257 308 128 Retail 0 20 20 20 40 40 60 60 80 60 Office 26 77 102 38 38 26 26 26 77 77 Service apartments 41 41 41 20 20 27 27 14 14 27 Dharamshala 0 6 9 2 2 2 7 4 4 2 195 503 429 389 229 403 505 359 482 294

In addition to above traffic numbers, 195 IPTs and cycles area also added in the total volumes. The total estimated entry + exit for morning and evening peak volume is 624 and 676 vehicles, respectively.

b. Expected Footfall method: This is another method to estimate the vehicle entry and exit volumes. Population per unit for residential, person/sqmt area for other activities, modal split and peak hour factor are considered. It is assumed that 70% of the total population would make vehicular trips to/from the project site. In addition 15% floating population + school vehicles have also been added. Modal shares of various modes have been adopted from previous studies conducted by consultant in Delhi NCR region and primary surveys conducted at Masjid Moth and West Campus site. 689 vehicles are expected to enter/exit in the peak hour.

Although there is not much difference in the vehicular demand, but parking supply method has been adopted and coded in the simulation model along with the network level forecasted vehicles. Minimum assumptions have been considered as compared to Footfall method, to calculate the vehicle demand in case of Parking supply method.

3.2.2.1 Network Level Demand | Future Traffic Estimation

The growth of vehicles depends on various individual and policy factors. Thus different growth rates based on combination of econometric analysis and trend growth have been arrived at. Mode wise vehicular growth rate in Delhi from 2004 to 2014 has been presented in the table below.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Table 7: Vehicle Data of Delhi Personal Vehicles Commercial Vehicles Vehicular M. Cycles Cars & Good Growth Year / Auto Total Jeeps Taxis Buses Vehicles (%) Scooters rickshaw

2003-04 13,14,672 26,65,750 52,905 11,495 21,962 1,35,671 42,02,455 2004-05 14,31,638 28,44,004 53,656 13,511 24,235 1,40,982 45,08,026 6.78 2005-06 14,66,641 30,62,536 73,644 20,693 43,500 1,41,996 48,09,010 6.26 2006-07 15,89,872 32,99,838 74,189 24,958 46,581 1,49,972 51,85,410 7.26 2007-08 17,29,695 35,78,199 75,297 30,704 52,763 1,60,726 56,27,384 7.85 2008-09 18,59,370 37,97,943 83,948 40,072 55,148 1,75,250 60,11,731 6.39 2009-10 20,13,680 40,55,229 86,482 45,240 58,047 1,93,205 64,51,883 6.82 2010-11 21,73,323 43,42,403 88,181 57,958 61,471 2,09,370 69,32,706 6.94 2011-12 23,43,113 46,44,146 88,197 69,780 64,033 2,28,886 74,38,155 6.8 2012-13 24,74,087 49,62,507 86,838 70,335 39,694 1,40,942 77,74,403 4.33 2013-14 26,29,343 52,97,697 91,840 78,686 40,947 1,54,654 82,93,167 6.26 Source: Statistical Abstract of Delhi 2014, Directorate of Economics and Statistic (DES)

The year wise growth rate of each mode as calculated from the above table is presented below. The average growth rate over a period of 10 years show comparatively higher rates of growth due some erratic growths captured in few years for all modes except goods vehicles. The goods vehicles show a lower average growth rate for in 2013 there is an abrupt high fall in the growth rate as per the DES data. Table 8: Year wise Vehicular Growth Rates in Delhi Cars & 2 Auto Goods Year Taxi Buses Jeeps Wheeler Rickshaw Vehicle 2005 8.9% 6.7% 1.4% 17.5% 10.3% 3.9% 2006 2.4% 7.7% 37.3% 53.2% 79.5% 0.7% 2007 8.4% 7.7% 0.7% 20.6% 7.1% 5.6% 2008 8.8% 8.4% 1.5% 23.0% 13.3% 7.2% 2009 7.5% 6.1% 11.5% 30.5% 4.5% 9.0% 2010 8.3% 6.8% 3.0% 12.9% 5.3% 10.2% 2011 7.9% 7.1% 2.0% 28.1% 5.9% 8.4% 2012 7.8% 6.9% 0.0% 20.4% 4.2% 9.3% 2013 5.6% 6.9% -1.5% 0.8% -38.0% -38.4% 2014 6.3% 6.8% 5.8% 11.9% 3.2% 9.7% Average 7.2% 7.1% 6.2% 21.9% 9.5% 2.6% Source: Statistical Abstract of Delhi 2014, Directorate of Economics and Statistic (DES)

The growth rates of cars and jeeps, two wheelers, auto rickshaws and taxi show a trend and have been observed to have statistical relation with population and Per Capita Income (PCI) of Delhi region. The mode

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

wise vehicular data when regressed with population data fitted the best. Based on the analysis the future growth rates of the modes have been estimated as presented in the following table. The growth patterns of buses and goods vehicles do not have significant relation with growth patterns of socio-economic data e.g. PCI, Net State Domestic Product (NSDP). Hence the average growth rates of these two modes have been considered after negating the abrupt fall or growth in particular years as given in table 10 below.

Table 9: Estimated Future Vehicular Growth Rates Cars & 2 Auto Goods Year Taxi Buses Jeeps Wheeler Rickshaw Vehicle 2016 6.5% 6.2% 3.0% 10.8% 4.60% 6.70% 2017 6.3% 5.9% 3.0% 10.0% 4.00% 6.40% 2018 6.0% 5.7% 3.0% 9.3% 3.70% 6.11% 2019 5.6% 5.3% 2.8% 8.3% 3.50% 5.84% 2020 4.9% 4.7% 2.6% 7.2% 3.40% 5.57% 2021 4.8% 4.6% 2.6% 6.8% 3.35% 5.32% 2022 4.7% 4.5% 2.5% 6.5% 3.30% 5.08% 2023 4.3% 4.2% 2.4% 6.0% 3.25% 4.85%

3.3 Traffic Routing

The project site destined traffic routing has been prepared considering:

1. The most logical route as per the existing pattern of movement

2. Future proposed new site access gates

3. Existing double U-turn on Aurobindo Marg (near site) and at Green Park (around 900m from site)

The AIIMS West Campus consist of housing for doctors, academicians, and professors. The commercial activities consist of retail, offices and service apartments, in addition Dharamshala for the patient’s attendants with the capacity of 2000 beds is also proposed. All these activities traffic will enter from Aurobindo marg. Traffic other than AIIMS doctors/professors would have primarily existing inbound and outbound routing pattern.

As per the existing AIIMS traffic to site, it is expected that nearly 70%-75% traffic would come from Northern direction (AIIMS interchange direction) and remaining 25% - 30% from Southern side (Green Park side) as given in figure 60 and 61. Similar pattern is expected in outbound routing. This is due to the presence of double U-turn between the existing 2-gates. Other traffic viz-a-viz retail, service apartments and offices traffic is expected to enter equally from Northern and Southern direction.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 60: Existing Routing Pattern of AIIMS traffic to/from West Campus

Figure 61: Inbound Directional Routing of AIIMS Traffic

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 62: Expected Inbound Routing

Figure 63: Expected Traffic Outbound Shares

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 64: Expected Outbound Traffic Routing

As per the discussions held with Traffic Police and PWD, there are no proposals to open any medians along Aurobindo marg and the existing traffic movement would be retained.

The Traffic study for these kind of projects not only involves the evaluation of site access gates, volume of additional traffic but also location of entry/exit ramps within the complex. Traffic consultants have taken into account all these factors and coded in the simulation model for the quantification of impacts and further suggesting implementable mitigation measures.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

4. Evaluation Using Micro Simulation: Base Model Development

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

4.1 Introduction

For the evaluation of the traffic circulation within the site area for different modes of traffic and to access the impact of proposed hospital on the access road micro simulation analysis were done. Micro-simulation models are computer models where the movements of individual vehicles travelling around road networks are determined by using car following, lane changing and gap acceptance rules. Micro-simulation can be used to develop new systems and optimize their effectiveness. They can estimate the impacts of a new scheme by producing outputs on a wide range of measures of effectiveness. Micro-simulation models, which can reproduce individual driver behavior, therefore are becoming an essential part of any assessment these days.

About the Software

The VISSIM software was selected for evaluation of the base model and proposed scheme based on its capability to (a) generate high-fidelity 3D visualizations of the model output and to (b) quantify the impact in the study area due to change in lane configuration. It is capable of producing output that contains measures of effectiveness such as total delay, stopped-time delay, stops, queue lengths and travel times at the aggregate and disaggregate level.

VISSIM 9.05 version is used for the micro-simulation model preparation. It also has the following features:

VISSIM is a behavior-based multi-purpose traffic simulation program. It is a tool for the optimization of complex technical systems. It can deal with a variety of urban and highway applications, integrating public and private transportation. Complex traffic conditions can be visualized to a level of detail to demonstrate the operational aspects of the traffic model.

PTV VISSIM is a microscopic, time step and behavior based simulation model and it is the most powerful tool available for simulating multi-modal traffic flows, including cars, trucks, buses, heavy rail, trams, LRT, bicyclists and pedestrians. Its flexible network structure provides the user with the confidence to know they can model any type of geometric configuration or unique operational/driver behavior encountered within the transportation system therefore making it an ideal simulation tool for homogenous and mixed traffic conditions.

4.2 Why use micro simulation?

With the ever-increasing popularity of micro-simulation models and with the availability of faster computing technologies, there has been an increasing trend to build larger and more complex micro-simulation models. Traditionally micro-simulation models were applied for optimizing traffic flow on a few intersections or a small section of the highway network. More recently, there has been a demand to extend the simulation models to cover large parts of the urban and highway network and to include representations of all road users including pedestrians. These applications have dramatically increased the scale of complexity of micro-simulation models

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus and pose new challenges to practitioners. The micro-simulation models not only build confidence in the proposal but also:

• Provides a virtual platform of the traffic flow

• Identifies critical sections and intersections

• Identifies bottlenecks and conflict areas

• Optimizing signal controls

• Quantifies the impact of the new proposal over the horizon years

• Simulates bus priority schemes

• Validates the new development proposal such a flyovers, underpass and round-about

• Can test and validate different traffic management schemes. etc.

• Generates outputs in a statistical format for evaluation.

• Generates 3-D animation for visualization of the models.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

4.3 Methodology

Flowchart below describes the methodology for developing the simulation model for the base year and the opening year. Various parameters for the methodology are described in this section.

Project Start

Data Collection and Compilation from the client

Secondary Data

Geometric Data/ Design Traffic volume and compositions Data

Data Processing & Analysis

Discussions with Client Network Model Setup in VISSIM

Coding the Model Parameter, Desired Speeds, Composition, Driving Behaviour

Calibration and Validation of the Base model

Evaluation of the proposed model with proposed design and estimated traffic

Evaluation of Mitigation Options (If Required)

Observations and Recommendations

Figure 65: Methodology for Simulation Model Development

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

4.4 Model Parameters

Figure 66 below shows the various model parameter and inputs for the simulation analysis.

Parameters Model Inputs Evaluations •Base Model •Warm up period of •Secondary Data •Do Nothing 600secs •Planned proposals •Proposed Scenario •Speed and Accelerations •Existing traffic Curves management •Mitigation measures •Driver Behavior •Existing Topographic •Conflict areas drawing •Reduced speed area •Primary Traffic Survey •Give way coding •Turning Movement •Lateral gap •Traffic Estimations •Vehicle speed •Surrounding traffic •Lane changing distance •Site inbound/Outbound •Dwell time at Security Traffic Check at Entry/Exit Gates •Vehicle classification and related properties

Figure 66: Model parameters for the simulation model

4.4.1 Developing the Base simulation model elements

The base model has been prepared for the Weekday Morning Peak (Critical Peak) of the network traffic from 08:45 to 09:45 Hours. Following are inputs which go into developing the simulation model.

4.4.1.1 Road Network Coding:

The road network is coded as per the road inventory observed on the site. Figure 67 below shows the model in VISSIM. Street parking is observed on the complete section.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 67: Coded Network in PTV Vissim

4.4.1.2 Traffic counts and composition

Vehicle composition and categories as well as vehicle inputs from different direction as observed during peak hour from the primary survey for the peak hour are coded in the simulation software. Simulation model is developed for total 4500 seconds, with 600 seconds of buffer time which fills up the volume for the peak hour of remaining 3600 seconds. The volume input for the buffer period is given from the primary survey.

4.4.1.3 Desired Speed and Acceleration graphs

The acceleration, speeds and dimensions of the different kind of vehicles were coded in the mode. These values can be calculated from the field or taken from existing literature of a similar stretch.

Figure 68: Speed and Acceleration Curves

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

4.4.2 Coding of Vehicle routes, Conflict areas and reduced speed areas

Static vehicle Routing is assigned to the network traffic on different paths for distributing the traffic as observed.

Figure 69: Vehicle Static Routing in PTV VISSIM

Conflict areas (figure 70) are used to handle non-signalized Conflicts. Parameters such as front/rear gap, safety distance, blocking are set as per Indian conditions.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 70: Conflict areas

Figure 71: Reduced Speed Areas

Reduced speed areas (figure 71) are used to model the reduced speeds of vehicles from their desired free flow speeds at curves/turns.

4.4.2.1 Driver Behaviour

The drivers were coded with Indian urban traffic driver behavior typology according to the parameters calibrated for Indian conditions based on existing literatures (Reference (1) (2)). The lane changing behaviour, lateral gap etc. was calibrated according to site and video survey observations. The attributes were also referred from the various research papers on the Indian driving behaviour. Wiedemann 74 behaviour has been reconfigured for the car following, lateral gap and lane change behaviour. Figure 72 below gives the snapshot of the driving behavior window in PTV Vissim.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 72: Driving Behaviour Parameter Window in VISSIM

4.4.3 Global Settings of Simulation Model

The simulation model is set to simulate 10 Minutes + 1 Hour of which first 10 minutes are modeled as buffer time for the build of the simulation model and last 1 hour is the peak hour. All observations were taken 3600 simulation seconds of the peak hour operations.

As all micro-simulation models are stochastic in nature, there is a degree of randomness associated with all distributions. The random seed parameter controls the random number generator in the simulation. Simulation runs with identical input files and random seeds generate identical results. A micro-simulation model must therefore be run with different random seed values to average the stochastic variations in the model. The model runs with five different random seed values, from which the results are taken and averaged before presentation.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 73: Simulation Parameters

4.4.4 Model Calibration and Validation

Model calibration is an iterative process of comparing the model to reality, making adjustments (or even major changes) to the model, comparing the revised model to real conditions, making additional adjustments, comparing again, and so on. The comparison of the model to reality is carried out by tests that require data on the mentioned heterogeneous traffic-flow model are related to four aspects viz. road geometrics, traffic characteristics, driver reaction time and vehicle performance. The power of simulation as a tool for the study of traffic flow lies in ability of the model to include the effect of the random nature of traffic. Hence, the random variables associated with traffic flow such as headway distribution are expressed as frequency distributions and input into the simulation model. These data pertaining to one direction of traffic flow, was collected at a selected stretch for model calibration and validation purposes.

Validation of the Simulation Model for turning volumes and travel times: Validation is the process of checking the results obtained from the calibrated model in terms of simulated values against field measurements for parameters such as average speeds. The observed traffic volume and composition was given as an input to the

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus simulation process. The inter-arrival time gap of the heterogeneous traffic flow (similar to headway of homogeneous traffic) of vehicles was assumed to follow negative exponential distribution.

Using the GEH Standard: As per standard If GEH value observed to be less than 5 for 85% of the values and hence it shows good fit. Simulated output volumes were compared with the surveyed volume counts to calculate the GEH Value. Figure 30 below shows the data collection points at the junction before the river bridge and the GEH calculation formula.

Figure 74: GEH Standard and Data Collection Points

Table 10 below provides the validation results for the base model with respect to turning volumes at the u- turns. With GEH value of less than 5 and percentage error less than 8%, the model is well calibrated spatiotemporally and further it may be also applied for different scenarios for evaluating proposed options.

Table 10: Validated results for the simulation base model for turning movement counts

S No Location Simulated Observed GEH Percentage Error Volumes Volumes 1 From INA to INA U-Turn 1095 1157 1.85 5.36% 2 From Green Park to Green Park U-Turn 1199 1294 2.69 7.34%

Table 11 below provides the validation results for the base model with respect travel times. These travel times estimated from the ground are measured by sample 10 runs during evening peak hour on corridors at distance as marked in figure (75) below. The travel time section are of length 440m (approx.) at ground. The estimated travel time variation is less than 10% indicated a validated model

Table 11: Validated results for the simulation base model for travel times S No. Travel Time Section Observed Average Simulated Average Percentage Error Travel Time Travel Time (Seconds) (Seconds) 1 From Green Park to INA 95 101 440

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

2 From INA to Green Park 88 91.5 440

Figure 75: Travel time measurement sections

4.4.5 Observations and Calculation from the base model

It is observed the base year traffic numbers are well within the capacity of the road section. High traffic is observed from the railway station side and liberty chowk side. Following conclusions are drawn:

1. Calibrated and validated micro-simulation models were developed for the base case scenario of the project area. 2. This model accurately portrays the traffic situation during the peak period. 3. As per the statistical outputs, the model accurately shows traffic condition

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

5. Evaluation Using Micro Simulation: Proposed and Mitigation Options

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

5.1 Developing the Simulation Model with Proposed Option

The validation and calibrated simulation model is to evaluate the traffic impact with the proposed redevelopment of the AIIMS west campus including estimated traffic demand for the AIIMS west campus inbound/outbound traffic and the projected surrounding traffic. Figure 76 below explains the process for the simulation analysis.

Base model preparation with the existing traffic condition and road geometry

Base model calibration and validation

Proposed Scenario with West campus internal traffic network and estimaed demand and projected traffic

Recommendations and Mitigation Measures (in case the proposed system do not work)

Figure 76: Study Process for the proposed design options

Following models are prepared apart from the base model:

Proposed Scenario: Year 2023 projected vehicular traffic + AIIMS west campus layout design and estimated demand + minor geometric improvements. The model has been prepared for Most Critical peak for the hospital incoming traffic and project traffic which is the evening peak hour with maximum site inbound/outbound traffic.

Mitigation measures:

In case the proposed option does not work / results are not satisfactory. The model has been prepared for Most Critical peak to further improve the proposed option.

5.1.1 Proposed Model Simulation Parameters and Assumptions

Figure 77 below shows the parameters for the simulation model for the proposed scenario. In addition to the base model, the layout for the proposed design is added to the model. Dwell time distributions for pick up and

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus drop areas, checkpoints in front of the ramp and total estimated demand and project surrounding traffic is used as input to the software as explained in section 3.2.

Parameters Model Inputs Evaluations •Warm up period of •Proposed Road layout of •Queue lengths and Delay 600secs the hospital building (at Network and Site •Indian Driver Behavior •Proposed model for level) •Conflict areas year– i.e 2017 •Site traffic volume Entry •Reduced speed area •Future traffic growth + and exit - arrival rate •Give way coding Site traffic Demand •Conflict areas •Lateral gap •Vehicle speed •Lane changing distance •Dwell Times •Vehicle classification and related properties

Figure 77: Proposed Model Parameters for Simulation

Assumption for the simulation model:

Stop Time at Security Check points

For Entry to Basement parking for Commercial Centre and for entry to Basement Parking for Visitors

 For Cars : (Mean 15 seconds , with standard deviation of 3 seconds)  For Two Wheelers : (Mean 6 Seconds, with standard deviation of 3 seconds)

For Entry to Basement parking for residents at checkpoint for entry to basement parking (It is assumed that resident vehicles would be given stickers/tags for entry to basement)

 For Cars : (Mean 5 seconds , with standard deviation of 2 seconds)  For Two Wheelers : (Mean 2 Seconds, with standard deviation of 1 seconds))

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

 Internal road Layout as provided by Project Architects  All results will be extracted from 5 simulation runs with different random seeds  Number of lanes inside the site : as per plan

5.2 Proposed Scenario 1 Simulation Model Year 2023

Figure 78 below shows the circulation and layout of the site proposed design as provided by the client indicating the circulation of different vehicle types.

Figure 78: Preliminary Layout Model of Hospital Building

From the preliminary analysis of the design following observations are made, figure 79 shows the location of the observations on the map.

1. Exit ramp location is close to Exit gate of commercial building and needs to be considered to change. As this might create safety hazard for site and through traffic. 2. Entry ramp location is close to Entry gate of commercial building and has limited holding length for the queue during peak hour, which may spill over to the main carriageway 3. FOB arm (in front of proposed gate) to be retrofitted and extended within the site complex. This would reduce generated vehicular traffic and encourage walk trips across AIIMS campus for the residents. 4. FOB can be extended across AIIMS campus for a safe and direct foot connectivity.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

5. From primary survey it has been observed that majority of entry is from gate 5 from the INA direction, currently in the proposed design there is only one residential entry as indicated in figure above, thus an alternate Residential entry can be explored, to distribute entry vehicles volume and ease of access for the residents coming from North direction (INA direction).

Figure 79: Observations on the proposed design

Figure 80 below shows the snapshot of the proposed design in the simulation software.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 80: Snapshot of the simulation model with the proposed design year 2023

5.2.1 Observations from the proposed Scenario Simulation Model Year 2023

Following observations and analysis are derived from the simulation model for the proposed model.

1) With increased network traffic the arrival rate of vehicles to the residential complex is low during the peak hour which allows smooth of movement of traffic inside the site for the residential traffic. Also sufficient holding area and distribution of vehicles to different entry ramps helps maintain the level of service on the road section inside the site. With total of 676 estimated entry/exit vehicles during the peak hour the level of service of the surrounding road network (Aurbindo marg) is not expected to be significantly impacted by the site demand.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 81: Snapshot of circulation of traffic inside the site area

Figure 82 below shows the arrival rate of vehicles every 5 minutes for residential entry vehicles indicating low arrival rate over the peak hour due to high network traffic.

Figure 82: Arrival rate for residential vehicles

2) Figure 83 below shows the location of the queue counters used to collect data on the estimated queue lengths at different locations. Figure 84 shows the average and maximum queue lengths estimated from the

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus simulation model. It is observed that while sufficient holding is available for most of the locations for “basement 1 commercial” the queue length (maximum queue at 15.9m) is expected to spill over to the main carriageway during peak hour due to limited holding area available within the site at this location.

Figure 83: Queue Counter locations

Figure 84: Average of Average and maximum queue at various locations

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

3) The total entry volume is estimated at 417 vehicles (Including private and IPT vehicles) which is close to the estimated demand of entry vehicle equal to 440 vehicles.

Table 12: Total Simulated Entry Volumes for proposed option Location Total Entry (Number of Vehicles) 1 Total Entry to Residential Complex 237 2 Total Entry to Commercial Complex 128 3 Total Entry to Dharamshala 52 Total 417

5.2.2 Inference from the Simulation analysis of the proposed model option 1

From the simulation analysis of the Proposed Scenario following conclusions are drawn:

 Circulation of traffic inside the site area is expected to be smooth, on the exit gates delay are expected when merging with the network traffic, as dedicated merging lengths are not available for the exit traffic.

 Queue length analysis indicates sufficient holding area for all queuing areas except the basement parking entry to the commercial centre.

 The site demand is not expected to significantly impact the surrounding network traffic.

5.3 Conceptualizing Mitigation Options

Mitigation options are developed based on the observations from the simulation of the proposed scenario and analysis done by the consultant. This sections detail out the mitigation scenarios and observations from the same. For conceptualizing the mitigation options following parameters were considered:

 Reduce vehicular conflicts for autos/taxi  Improve delays/queue lengths at the auto/taxi drop off areas  Review of circulation to explore options for smooth traffic flow (if required)  Review of location of parking areas/bays to improve traffic flow and access for pedestrians  Explore options for reducing need for reinforcement requirements to manage traffic  Geometrical improvements to improve turning radius for smooth vehicular movement

The Mitigation Options worked out have been listed as follows: -

1. Mitigation option : Proposed Option* + Change in location of entry ramp for commercial center + Additional entry for residential traffic

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

*Proposed Option: planned site design + projected vehicular traffic + development traffic + minor geometric improvement

5.4 Mitigation option

Figure 85 below explains the change in circulation for the residential and commercial traffic considered for evaluating the mitigation option:

Following are the main features of the modified circulation plan as per mitigation option

 Commercial entry ramp 2 (c) is shifted inside the site to allow for larger holding area in case of queues to avoid spill over to the main carriageway  Additionally entry is proposed as indicated in the figure below, and ramp marked (5) is reversed in its function and converted to entry ramp  The function of ramp marked (1) is also reversed to be an exit ramp, to maintain total 3 entry and exit ramps

The additional entry gate is provided for the residents to avoid a longer route in which they need to take U-Turn downstream aurbindo marg (near yusuf sarai) and then enter the exiting entry gate. The location of the additional entry gate provides access via INA to INA u-turn, but the location of the entry gate is only 50m (approx.) from the U-turn which indicates low weaving section for the vehicles who would enter from this gate. Simulation analysis are done to see the impact of the location of this gate on the delay of the through traffic.

Figure 85: Proposed Circulation Plan as Per Mitigation Option 1

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Figure 86 shows the revised circulation for the dharmshala bound traffic allowing more holding area at drop off locations and also the entry/exit gate location for dharmshala traffic and residential is now separated.

Figure 86: Circulation for the dharmshala entry/exit traffic

5.4.1 Observations from the Mitigation Option

 The total entry volume is estimated at 405 vehicles which is close to the estimated demand of entry vehicle equal to 440 vehicles. It is observed that with there is no much difference in the total entry between the mitigated and proposed option as no changes are proposed on the network level.

Location Total Entry (Number of Vehicles) 1 Total Entry to Residential Complex 223 2 Total Entry to Commercial Complex 130 3 Total Entry to Dharamshala 52 Total 405

 Maximum queue length at the basement entry to commercial parking is estimated at 13.9m, this is reduced from 15.9m as in the proposed option due to the relocation of the ramp, as the arrival rate is

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

slightly reduced with the extra distance to be travelled. With available holding area this doesn’t impact the network traffic.  Table 13 below compares the delay for the network vehicles for the proposed and mitigation options, since due to the additional entry proposed vehicle taking U-Turn from INA to INA would weave to the leftmost lane to enter the gate, which may interrupt the movement of the through traffic from Green park to INA. It is observed that the delay for the vehicles is increased by 6 seconds in mitigation option as compared to proposed option. Considering the routing of the vehicles and delay caused if the additional entry is not provided it is recommended to have the additional entry (as far as possible from the end of U-Turn) to allow easier lane changing for site bound vehicles.

Table 13: Delay comparison for Mitigation and Proposed Option from green park to INA through traffic Average Delay (Seconds) Average Delay (Seconds) Proposed Mitigation Option Option 1 From Green Park to INA 29.12 23.45

5.4.2 Inference from the Simulation analysis of the mitigation option

From the simulation analysis of the Proposed Scenario following conclusions are drawn:

 Queue length analysis indicates sufficient holding area for all queuing areas with relocation of the commercial basement entry ramp.

 The additionally entry eases access to the site without causing significant delays to the through traffic. The location of additional entry needs to be as far as possible from the end of the u turn in INA to INA direction.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

5.5 Recommendations

From the traffic assessment study, data collected, site study and simulation analysis as discussed in the sections above following recommendations are drawn:

1. The sight line should be clear near U-Turn for traffic safety. Regular trimming of trees and location of the pedestrian signal at visible location are must. 2. Geometric improvements required near AIIMS East Campus gate. 3. Bays for IPT and bus stops has been planned outside the campus, near the commercial activity. This needs to be connected via footpath to AIIMS metro station. 4. The Foot Over Bridge (FOB) in front of the West Campus to be retrofitted adding on stairs inside the east and west campuses along with aesthetic face lift, which will act as a pedestrian connection between the two campuses. The FOB and below the stairs of FOB (especially at West Campus side) are currently in shabby state, maintenance works, along with face lifting are required to encourage people to use the facility. 5. Location of the proposed additional entry as in mitigation option needs to be as far as possible from the end of the U-Turn on INA to INA side, additionally the entry from this gate could be restricted during peak hours to avoid any weaving towards the gate which might cause delays and safety issues. 6. On the exit gates for commercial/residential traffic providing a taper length for ease of merging with the through traffic would reduce delay while exiting and provide more safety. 7. Location of the entry of the basement ramps to commercial parking needs to be have a minimum holding area of 16m and is recommended to be 40-50m inside the site, as indicated in mitigation option. 8. Existing signalised pedestrian crossing at the U-turn hosts low volume of pedestrian in peak hours and is recommended to be removed. The presence of FOB and signalised crossing at AIIMS would be sufficient for the crossing of pedestrians. 9. As this is a micro level study for the quantification of impact due to redevelopment of AIIMS West campus, it is recommended that NMT lane to be developed at the broader network level along Aurobindo marg.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

5.6 Updated Site Plan

The site plan and circulation have been updated based on the recommendations and observations from the data analysis and simulation outputs as listed in the preceding sections. The proposed circulation and updated layout within the site has been presented in the figure 87 below. Following observations are made with the updated plan:

Figure 87: Final Updated Plan of AIIMS West Campus

 Two gates for the residential entry and exit (c)(d) in the site, which would distribute the traffic seamlessly and will allow traffic from INA side to enter the West Campus taking the first U-Turn on Aurobindo Marg from the AIIMS intersection.  The commercial entry ramp [c] has been shifted inside the site, providing sufficient holding length within the site. However both the ramps can primary be accessed from the drop off/pick up bays before the ramp. In case of queue at waiting areas (drop off/pick up) vehicles going directly to the ramp would face delays as the lay by area width is only 4m. Vehicles using the main circulation road to access the ramp without entering the drop off/pick areas would merge/conflict with the vehicles coming from drop off/pick areas going to the ramp or joining the main circulation road. These issues need to be optimized and handled operationally to ensure safe and smooth movement of traffic.  For residential area, 3 entry ramps and 4 exit ramps have been planned and the traffic movement is based on the recommendation provided.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

 Entry (f) and exit (e) for Dharamshala traffic is now reversed as in the initial proposed site plan, new circulation ensure no conflict between the Dharamshala entry and Residential exit traffic.

5.7 Comparative analysis of the Proposed plan 1 and Updated Plan

Figure 88 and 89 shows the initial proposed plan and the updated plan respectively with the location of ramps and circulation.

Figure 88: Initial Proposed Option

Figure 89: Updated Proposed Plan

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

Table 14 below provides the summaries observations and provides a comparative analysis in terms of the traffic flow measures for both the proposed options as explained in the previous sections:

Table 14: Comparative Analysis of Initial Proposed Plan and Updated Plan Initial Proposed Plan Updated Proposed Plan

1) Location of Commercial entry ramp is close the 1) Location of commercial entry ramp are within the main carriageway (Aurbindo Marg), thus queueing site and have sufficient holding area for queueing at security checkpoint was estimated to reach the and no spill over of queue is expected on Aurbindo entry gate causing hindrance to through traffic marg.

2) Only one entry option is provided for residential 2) Additional entry for residential vehicles allows access near gate 4 of existing AIIMS west campus, access via the INA to INA direction U-Turn which which is expected to increase travel times to reach disperses traffic and improves the level of service the entry gate due to delays at Aurbindo marg with both for the network and site bound traffic. vehicle coming from AIIMS side requiring to take U- Turn upstream for access to entry gate, This would also change the exiting travel patterns which show large number of entries from existing gate 5 of AIIMS west campus.

3) Location of Dharamshala Entry gate and residential 3) Updated location of Dharamshala entry and Exit gate was expected to cause conflicting residential exit ensure no conflict between the two movement of traffic. movements, which avoids any possible delays on the Aurdindo marg due to this conflict.

4) The residential traffic circulation pattern due to 4) The ramp movements and locations modified to the ramps in the initial plan was conflicting, improve the traffic circulation at site and at basement e.g. ramps 1 and 2 were entry ramps which as well. could be accessed after taking u-turns and only after merging with the exit traffic.

Traffic Impact assessment using micro simulation for redevelopment of AIIMS West Campus

5.8 References

1) Speed and Acceleration Characteristics of Different Types of Vehicles on Multi-Lane Highway, Arpan Mehar1 Satish Chandra2, and Senathipathi Velmurugan3 2) Velmurugan, S., Errampalli, M., Ravinder, K., Sitaramanjaneyulu, K. and Gangopadhyay, S. 2010. Critical evaluation of roadway capacity of multi-lane high speed corridors under heterogeneous traffic conditions through traditional and microscopic simulation models. Journal of Indian Roads Congress, 71 (3), 235-264. 3) Bains M S, Ponnu B, Arkatkar S S (2012). Modelling of traffic flow on Indian expressways 25 using simulation technique. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 43, 475 493 26 4) Bains M S, Anshuman Bhardwaj, Shriniwas Arkatkar , S. Velmurugan (2013) Effect of 27 Speed Limit Compliance on Roadway Capacity of Indian Expressways, 2nd Conference of 28 Transportation Research Group of India (2nd CTRG) 5) PTV (2016) VISSIM Version 9.00 User Manual, Planung Transport Verkehr AG, 30 Karlsruhe, Germany