*ManuscriptView metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE Click here to view linked References provided by University of Hertfordshire Research Archive 1 Impacts of changing climate and agronomic factors on fusarium ear blight 1 2 3 2 of wheat in the UK 4 5 6 3 7 8 4 Jonathan S. WESTa*, Sarah HOLDGATEa†, James A. TOWNSENDa, Julia B HALDERad, 9 10 b c a 5 Simon G. EDWARDS , Philip JENNINGS and Bruce D. L. FITT 11 12 13 6 14 15 7 a Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UK; b Harper Adams University College, 16 17 c 18 8 Newport, TF10 8NB, UK; The Food and Environment Research Agency, Sand Hutton, 19 20 9 York YO41 1LZ, UK; d Imperial College, London; † current address: RAGT Seeds Ltd., 21 22 23 10 Grange Road, Ickleton, Saffron Walden, CB10 1TA, UK 24 25 11 26 27 *E-mail:
[email protected] 28 12 29 30 13 31 32 14 Climate change will have direct impacts on fusarium ear blight (FEB) in wheat crops, since 33 34 35 15 weather factors greatly affect epidemics, the relative proportions of species of ear blight 36 37 16 pathogens responsible and the production of deoxynivalenol (DON) toxin by two Fusarium 38 39 40 17 species, F. graminearum and F. culmorum. Many established weather-based prediction 41 42 18 models do not accurately predict FEB severity in the UK. One weather-based model 43 44 45 19 developed with UK data suggests a slight increase in FEB severity under climate change.