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Casting Light on the Arab Spring a Survey of Influential Economic Factors in the Arab Spring Countries

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Casting Light on the Arab Spring a Survey of Influential Economic Factors in the Arab Spring Countries Casting Light on the Arab Spring A Survey of Influential Economic Factors in the Arab Spring Countries Ugurhan Berkok, Royal Military College of Canada and Queen’s University Christopher E. Penney, Royal Military College of Canada Nicholas Andexer, Royal Military College of Canada Mohammed Douch, Royal Military College of Canada Adugna Olani, Queen’s University Abdelkerim Ousman, Royal Military College of Canada Prepared By: Department of Economics, Queen’s University 94 University Avenue, Kingston, ON, Canada K7L 3N6 Contract Project Manager: Ugurhan Berkok, 613 533 2291 ext 32291 PWGSC Contract Number: RMCC Serial #2009-0302-SLA CSA: Tania Yazbeck, DRDC CORA Defence Economics Team, 613-995-2445 The scientific or technical validity of this Contract Report is entirely the responsibility of the Contractor and the contents do not necessarily have the approval or endorsement of the Department of National Defence of Canada. Contract Report DRDC-RDDC-2015-C111 January 2015 © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of National Defence, 2015 © Sa Majesté la Reine (en droit du Canada), telle que représentée par le ministre de la Défense nationale, 2015 JOHN DEUTSCH INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF ECONOMIC POLICY Casting Light on the Arab Spring A Survey of Influential Economic Factors in the Arab Spring Countries Prepared By: Ugurhan Berkok, Royal Military College of Canada and Queen’s University Editor, Author of Iraq, Jordan and Tunisia Chapters Christopher E. Penney, Royal Military College of Canada Editor, Author of Kuwait and Yemen Chapters Nicholas Andexer, Royal Military College of Canada Author of Bahrain Chapter Mohammed Douch, Royal Military College of Canada Author of Morocco Chapter Adugna Olani, Queen’s University Author of Algeria, Egypt and Sudan Chapters Abdelkerim Ousman, Royal Military College of Canada Author of Libya and Syria Chapters Department of Economics – Queen’s University 94 University Avenue – Kingston, ON, Canada – K7L 3N6 The scientific or technical validity of this Contract Report is entirely the responsibility of the Contractor and the contents do not necessarily have the approval or endorsement of the Department of National Defence of Canada. PWGSC Contract Number: RMCC Serial #2009-0302-SLA Contract Scientific Authority: Tania Yazbeck, DRDC CORA Defence Economics Team, 613-995-2445 January 22, 2015 © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of National Defence, 2015 © Sa Majesté la Reine (en droit du Canada), telle que représentée par le ministre de la Défense nationale, 2015 2 Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 5 Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................................................................ 9 Middle Eastern Countries ........................................................................................................................... 21 Bahrain .................................................................................................................................................... 21 Iraq .......................................................................................................................................................... 38 Jordan ...................................................................................................................................................... 51 Kuwait ..................................................................................................................................................... 68 Syria ......................................................................................................................................................... 81 Yemen ..................................................................................................................................................... 96 North African Countries ............................................................................................................................ 111 Algeria ................................................................................................................................................... 111 Egypt ..................................................................................................................................................... 127 Libya ...................................................................................................................................................... 143 Morocco ................................................................................................................................................ 160 Sudan .................................................................................................................................................... 173 Tunisia ................................................................................................................................................... 185 3 This page intentionally left blank. 4 Introduction Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation in December 17th of 2010 in Tunisia marked the beginning of a far- reaching movement in the Arab World, a region where the vast majority of countries lacked democratic freedom and universal human rights.1 Prior to this, Iraq was the only country to have relatively free and fair elections, and this was under the auspices of American and British soldiers following the deposing of Saddam Hussein. Immediately following the revolt in Tunisia, unrest spread to Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen.2 Four years on, however, only Tunisia has progressed towards a true democracy while Egypt has since returned to autocratic governance and Libya and especially Syria are afflicted by violent civil wars. With the exception of Iraq and Tunisia, the Arab Spring uprisings have not yet yielded a transition towards ‘minimalist democracy’3 as enjoyed by many developing countries such Indonesia and the Philippines in Asia, Ghana in Africa and several in Latin America. This concept of ‘minimalist democracy’ can simply be described as governance characterized by competitive elections and little more; a fully- fledged democracy would have significant additional institutional strength that would weigh against tyranny.4 Perhaps the most striking contrast observed amongst Arab Spring countries would be Libya and Tunisia; though neighbours, the former has historically had very low institutional quality while the latter had strong institutions. It is perhaps not surprising then to witness a successful transition underway in Tunisia while Libya continues to experience difficulties. This study concentrates on twelve Arab countries5 in the Middle East and North Africa. None of these countries had, prior to the Arab Spring, implemented a fully inclusive democracy, partly due to their colonial history, partly due to the manner in which they earned their freedom from colonialist powers, and largely due to the winds of history and technology that did not create adequate conditions for democracies to emerge. One can observe, from Chart 1 below, the drastic changes that have occurred since 1990 following the end the Cold War. The number of autocracies worldwide fell from about eighty to twenty within a span of twenty-five years. Since the transition to democracy requires more than competitive elections, only half of these sixty or so countries have transitioned to a mixed spectrum of functioning democracies, many still remaining as anocracies – as is the case with many Arab regimes. 1 The Economist’s Democracy Index 2010 ranked Lebanon - the highest ranking Arab country - at 86th out of 167 countries. 2 In April 2011, the Gulf Cooperation Council brokered a deal to transfer the presidency from the 33-year autocratic president Ali Abdullah Saleh to his vice-president Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi who subsequently won the February 2012 election to become the president. With Insurgencies and economic woes continuing, and no democratic elections yet held, the Yemeni democracy still lies in a distant future. 3 Bidner et al. (2014). 4 Ibid. 5 Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Morocco, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen while leaving out Oman and, most importantly, Saudi Arabia. 5 Chart 1: Global Governance Trends, 1800-20126 This research examines the characteristics and economic and political aspects of twelve Arab Spring- affected countries, paying careful attention to common and country-specific factors. Each chapter includes three main information sections: first, a section with a set of descriptive indicators offering a snapshot of the country in question; second, a section entitled Critical Economic Indicators (CEIs) that covers a decade leading up to the unrest and/or uprisings; and, third, a section allocated to country- specific indicators. Core to each country analysis is the selection of CEIs, which may be interpreted as barometer readings ahead of potential civil unrest. The selection of the CEIs used within this report has been guided by observations made on each of the countries’ Arab Spring experiences as well as those from other popular uprisings elsewhere in the world, including recent events in Turkey, Ukraine, and Hong Kong. The robust participation of educated and socially-connected youth against various perceived governance problems, often with demands for greater personal and democratic freedoms,
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