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Lepidopteran Forest Defoliators in a Changing Climate: Performance in Different Life-History Stages, and Range Expansion

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Lepidopteran Forest Defoliators in a Changing Climate: Performance in Different Life-History Stages, and Range Expansion ANNALES UNIVERSITATIS TURKUENSIS ANNALES UNIVERSITATIS A II 347 Julia Fält-Nardmann LEPIDOPTERAN FOREST DEFOLIATORS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE: PERFORMANCE IN DIFFERENT LIFE-HISTORY STAGES, AND RANGE EXPANSION Julia Fält-Nardmann Grano Oy, Turku , Finland 2018 Turku Oy, Grano ISBN 978-951-29-7388-0 (PRINT) ISBN 978-951-29-7389-7 (PDF) TURUN YLIOPISTON JULKAISUJA – ANNALES UNIVERSITATIS TURKUENSIS ISSN 0082-6979 (PRINT) ISSN 2343-3183 (ONLINE) Sarja - ser. A II osa - tom. 347 | Biologica - Geographica - Geologica | Turku 2018 30871641_Turun_yliopisto_Vaitoskirja_Julia_Falt-Nardmann_Matem_luonn_tiet_kansi_18_08_28.indd 1 28.8.2018 11.44.08 LEPIDOPTERAN FOREST DEFOLIATORS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE: PERFORMANCE IN DIFFERENT LIFE-HISTORY STAGES, AND RANGE EXPANSION Julia Fält-Nardmann TURUN YLIOPISTON JULKAISUJATURUN YLIOPISTON – ANNALES JULKAISUJA UNIVERSITATIS – ANNALES TURKUENSIS UNIVERSITATIS TURKUENSIS Sarja - ser.Sarja A II osa- ser. - XXtom. osa 347 - tom.| Biologica XX | Astronomica - Geographica - Chemica - Geologica - Physica | Turku- Mathematica 2018 | Turku 20xx 30871641_Turun_yliopisto_Vaitoskirja_Julia_Falt-Nardmann_Matem_luonn_tiet_sisus_18_09_03.indd 1 3.9.2018 8.43.41 University of Turku Faculty of Science and Engineering Biodiversity Unit Doctoral Programme in Biology, Geography and Geology Supervised by Professor Emeritus Pekka Niemelä Professor Kari Saikkonen Biodiversity Unit Biodiversity Unit Dedicated to my parents, my sister and my husband, who all tirelessly believe in University of Turku, Finland University of Turku, Finland me when I myself do not. Reviewed by Dr. Tarmo Virtanen Professor Toomas Tammaru Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences University of Helsinki, Finland University of Tartu, Estonia Opponent Professor Christer Björkman Department of Ecology Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden The originality of this thesis has been checked in accordance with the University of Turku quality It is not the strongest or the most assurance system using the Turnitin Originality Check service. intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change. ISBN 978-951-29-7388-0 (PRINT) Charles Darwin ISBN 978-951-29-7389-7 (PDF) ISSN 0082-6979 (Print) ISSN 2343-3183 (Online) Grano Oy - Turku, Finland 2018 30871641_Turun_yliopisto_Vaitoskirja_Julia_Falt-Nardmann_Matem_luonn_tiet_sisus_18_09_03.indd 2 3.9.2018 8.43.41 Dedicated to my parents, my sister and my husband, who all tirelessly believe in me when I myself do not. It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change. Charles Darwin 30871641_Turun_yliopisto_Vaitoskirja_Julia_Falt-Nardmann_Matem_luonn_tiet_sisus_18_09_03.indd 3 3.9.2018 8.43.41 CONTENTS 4. Conclusions .......................................................................................................................... 37 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................. 39 List of original papers ................................................................................................................ 6 References ................................................................................................................................ 41 Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... 7 Original Publications ................................................................................................................ 59 Tiivistelmä .................................................................................................................................. 8 Sammanfattning ......................................................................................................................... 9 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 10 1.1. Plagues on the move: range shifts and expansions of insect pests ................................ 10 1.1.1. What limits insect distribution ranges? .................................................................. 10 1.1.2. The effect of climate change on insect pests and their distribution ....................... 11 1.2. A time to hatch and a time to lay eggs: timing of life cycle events in insects .............. 13 1.2.1. The importance of synchrony ................................................................................. 15 1.3. Local adaptation and adaptive phenotypic plasticity – keys to survival in changing environments ........................................................................................................................ 17 1.4. Aims of the thesis .......................................................................................................... 18 2. Materials and methods ......................................................................................................... 21 2.1. Study species ................................................................................................................. 21 2.1.1. Geometridae ........................................................................................................... 21 2.1.2. Lymantriinae .......................................................................................................... 23 2.2. Experimental set-up ....................................................................................................... 24 2.2.1. Studying the timing of egg hatch of geometrid moths in the laboratory (I) .......... 24 2.2.2. Field experiment on life cycles of L. monacha and L. dispar (II) ......................... 25 2.2.3. Investigating the potential of L. monacha and L. dispar eggs to survive extreme winter cold spells in Finland (III) .................................................................................... 26 2.2.4. Revealing changes in L. monacha distribution range using entomological records (IV) ................................................................................................................................... 27 3. Results and discussion .......................................................................................................... 28 3.1. Differences between geographically separated populations of the same moth species as indicators of local adaptation ............................................................................................... 28 3.1.1. Egg hatch in geometrid moths ................................................................................ 28 3.1.2. Life history traits of L. monacha ............................................................................ 29 3.2. Adaptive phenotypic plasticity observed between moths from the same population reared in different climate zones .......................................................................................... 30 3.3 Potential of L. monacha and L. dispar for northwards range expansion........................ 31 3.3.1. Development from egg to adult in southern and northern Finland ........................ 31 3.3.2. Cold hardiness of eggs ........................................................................................... 32 3.4 Observed population growth and northwards range expansion of L. monacha ............. 34 3.5. Future prospects of L. monacha and L. dispar in Finland ............................................. 36 30871641_Turun_yliopisto_Vaitoskirja_Julia_Falt-Nardmann_Matem_luonn_tiet_sisus_18_09_03.indd 4 3.9.2018 8.43.41 CONTENTS 4. Conclusions .......................................................................................................................... 37 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................. 39 List of original papers ................................................................................................................ 6 References ................................................................................................................................ 41 Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... 7 Original Publications ................................................................................................................ 59 Tiivistelmä .................................................................................................................................. 8 Sammanfattning ......................................................................................................................... 9 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 10 1.1. Plagues on the move: range shifts and expansions of insect pests ................................ 10 1.1.1. What limits insect distribution ranges? .................................................................. 10 1.1.2. The effect of climate change on insect pests and their distribution ....................... 11 1.2. A time to hatch and a time to lay eggs: timing of life cycle events in insects .............. 13 1.2.1. The importance of synchrony ................................................................................. 15 1.3. Local adaptation and adaptive phenotypic plasticity – keys to survival in changing
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