Finland's National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (Pdf)
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������������������������������������������������� �����������������������Publication 13a/2004 �����������������������������Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Publications of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry in Finland 2004 1/2004 Horisontaalisen maaseudun kehittämisohjelman väliarviointi ISBN 952-453-152-6 2/2004 Suomen LEADER+ -ohjelman väliarviointi 2003 ISBN 952-453-158-5 3/2004 Alueellisen maaseudun kehittämisohjelman (ALMA) väliarviointi PISBN 952-453-160-7 4/2004 Suomen maaraportti kotieläinten geenivaroista FAO:lle ISBN 952-453-116-5 4a/2004 Country Report on Farm Animal Genetic Resources ISBN 952-453-162-3 5/2004 Kansallisen laatustrategian väliarviointi, alkutuotannon osalta loppuraportti ISBN 952-453-156-9 6/2004 Kohti yhteyksien maaseutua - Selvitys EMOTR-rahoituksista maaseudun tietoyhteiskuntahankkeista ISBN 952-453-165-8 7/2004 Kansallinen metsäohjelma 2010 - Seurantaraportti 2002-2003 ISBN 952-453-172-0 8/2004 EU:n metsäasiat - Suomen kannat ISBN 952-453-176-3 9/2004 Metsälain erityisen tärkeät elinympäristöt ISBN 952-453-178-X 9a/2004 Särskilt viktiga livsmiljöer som avses i skogslagen ISBN 952-453-179-8 10/2004 Kansallinen paikkatietostrategia ISBN 952-453-180-1 �����������������������������Finland’s National Strategy 11/2004 Maa- ja metsätalousministeriön hallinnonalan tietohallintostrategia 2004-2007 ISBN 952-453-181-X for Adaptation������������������� to Climate Change 12/2004 Neljäs ministerikonferenssi metsien suojelemiseksi Euroopassa. Wien 28.-30.4.2004. Päätökset ISBN 952-453-185-2 13/2004 Johannesburgin kestävän kehityksen huippukokouksen päätökset: Strateginen arvio uusiutuvia luonnonvaroja ja maaseutua koskevista toimista ISBN 952-453-195-X ����������������������� �I ���������������������������PB 30, FIN-00023 GOVERNMENT, Finland ISSN 1238-2531 �������������� ISBN 952-453-215-8 ������������������ ���������� www.mmm.fi �����������������������Publication 1a/2005 Finland’sFinland’s National StrategyStrategy Ffor Adaptation to Climate Change Name of publication: Finland’s National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change Publisher: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Finland Editors: Veikko Marttila, Heikki Granholm, Jussi Laanikari, Tiia Yrjölä, Aimo Aalto, Pirkko Heikinheimo, Juha Honkatuki, Heikki Järvinen, Jari Liski, Raija Merivirta, Mikko Paunio Cover photos: Hannu Huttu/Kuvaliiteri, Vesa Greis/Kuvaliiteri Pekka Väisänen/ Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Publication 1a/2005 Graphic Design: PixPoint ky Layout: Vammalan Kirjapaino Oy ISSN 1238-2531 ISBN 952-453-231-X Publication 1a/2005 Documentation page Publisher Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Date January 2005 Author(s) Veikko Marttila, Heikki Granholm, Jussi Laanikari, Tiia Yrjölä, Aimo Aalto, Pirkko Heikinheimo, Juha Honkatukia, Heikki Järvinen, Jari Liski, Raija Merivirta, Mikko Paunio Title of publication Finland’s National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change Abstract The Parliament’s reply to the National Climate Strategy submitted to the Parliament in March 2001 identifi ed the need to draft a programme for adaptation to climate change. The preparation of the National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change was started in the latter part of 2003. The work was coordinated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and representatives from the Ministry of Traffi c and Communications, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Ministry of Social Affairs and Health, Ministry of the Environment, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Finnish Meteorological Institute and Finnish Environment Institute took part in the preparation. Each Ministry was responsible for assessing the impacts and identifying adaptation measures in its own sector. The Adaptation Strategy was based on the available research information and expert assessments and judgements. A large number of leading Finnish researchers of climate change and its impacts, other experts and representatives of different sectors were involved in the preparation process. The comments sent by stakeholders were also taken into account in fi nalising the strategy. The increase in the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere leads to global warming and changes in the climate systems. The Finnish Meteorological Institute compiled the climate change scenarios based on the existing international and national data. According to the estimates on the future climate change in Finland, by 2080 the average temperature could rise by 4 - 6°C and the average precipitation would grow by 15 - 25 %. Extreme weather events, such as storms, droughts and heavy rains, are likely to increase. The Government Institute for Economic Research drew up a background study on the long-term scenarios for the economy and the Finnish Environment Institute examined the future development trends in natural conditions. The strategy describes the impacts of climate change in the following sectors: agriculture and food production, forestry, fi sheries, reindeer husbandry, game management, water resources, biodiversity, industry, energy, traffi c, land use and communities, building, health, tourism and recreation, and insurance. The strategy describes the present sensitivity to climate change and outlines actions and measures to improve the capacity and to adapt to future climate change. The strategy aims at reducing the negative consequences and taking advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change. The Adaptation Strategy includes a proposal on starting a research programme. The Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change was drawn up as a self-standing and comprehensive work. The main content will be included in the National Climate and Energy Strategy to be updated in 2005. Keywords Climate change, scenarios, impacts, adaptation, agriculture and food production, forestry, fi sheries, reindeer husbandry, game management, water resources, biodiversity, industry, energy, traffi c, land use and communities, building, health, tourism and recreation, insurance Publication series and Publications of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry 1a/2005 number ISSN 1238-2531 ISBN 952-453-231-X No. of pages 280 Language English For sale at/distributor Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Printing place and year Vammalan kirjapaino Oy, Vammala, Finland, 2005 4 Table of Contents DOCUMENTATION PAGE 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 1. BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES OF THE ADAPTATION STRATEGY 7 1.1. Background 7 1.2. Starting points and scope of the Adaptation Strategy 9 1.3. Objectives of the strategy 12 2. FUTURE SCENARIOS 13 2.1. Climate change scenarios 13 2.1.1. Global changes 13 2.1.2. Changes in Finland 18 2.1.3. Changes in Finland in detail 24 2.2. Socio-economic scenarios in Finland 33 2.2.1. Introduction 33 2.2.2. Alternatives under review 34 2.2.3. Scenario calculations 43 2.3. Natural systems 51 2.3.1. Soil 51 2.3.2. Water 53 2.3.3. Atmosphere 55 2.3.4. Flora and fauna 59 3. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 62 3.1. Global and European impacts 62 3.2. Impacts in Finland 65 3.2.1. Use of natural resources 65 3.2.1.1. Agriculture and food production 65 3.2.1.2. Forestry 71 3.2.1.3. Fisheries 80 3.2.1.4. Reindeer husbandry 90 3.2.1.5. Game management 99 3.2.1.6. Water resources 107 3.2.2. Biodiversity 116 3.2.3. Industry 122 3.2.4. Energy 128 3.2.5. Transport and communications 139 3.2.6. Land use and communities 147 3.2.7. Construction and buildings 152 3.2.8. Health 156 3.2.9. Tourism and the recreational use of nature 164 3.2.10. Insurance operations 167 4. ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE 172 4.1. Sector-specifi c adaptation 172 4.1.1. Use of natural resources 172 4.1.1.1. Agriculture and food production 172 4.1.1.2. Forestry 176 4.1.1.3. Fisheries 182 4.1.1.4. Reindeer husbandry 188 4.1.1.5. Game management 192 4.1.1.6. Water resources 196 4.1.2. Biodiversity 202 4.1.3. Industry 208 4.1.4. Energy 211 4.1.5. Transport and communications 215 4.1.6. Land use and communities 221 4.1.7. Buildings and construction 225 4.1.8. Health 229 4.1.9. Tourism and the recreational use of nature 233 4.1.10. Insurance operations 236 4.2. Need to adapt to changes taking place in other parts of the world 240 4.2.1. Adaptative capacity in diffrent countries 240 4.2.2. Interrelationship between the global impacts and adaptation to climate change in Finland 241 5 6 4.2.3. Financial measures and mechanisms 242 4.2.4. Connections between adaptation and reduction of emissions 242 4.3. Cross-sectoral issues 244 4.3.1. Development of administrative capacities 244 4.3.2. Observation and warning systems 248 4.3.3. Research and development 254 4.3.4. Education and communication 258 5. IMPACTS AND FOLLOW-UP OF THE ADAPTATION STRATEGY 260 5.1. Impacts of the Adaptation Strategy 260 5.2. Follow-up 262 REFERENCES 265 APPENDIX: IPCC EMISSION SCENARIOS 278 1. Background and objectives of the Adaptation Strategy 1.1. Background The Finnish Government submitted a Government Report on the National Climate Strategy to the Parliament in March 2001. The Parliament stated in its response in June 2001 that the implementation of the National Climate Programme could be started but, in addition, there was a need to formulate a programme for adapting to climate change. Thus the Parliament’s response required that the drafting of a pro- gramme for adaptation to climate change be started. In early 2003 the Ministry of Trade and Industry together with other ministries pre- pared a progress report for the Parliament on the implementation of the National Climate Strategy. The progress report stated that a separate programme for adapta- tion to climate change will be included in the revised National Climate Strategy. It also stated that the following aspects should be taken into account when planning adaptation: • Research should focus on acquiring the necessary knowledge basis on the impacts of climate change (both direct and indirect) affecting Finland. Uncertainty factors should also be taken into consideration. In the initial phase the adaptation programme requires the implementation of research aimed at this. • The adaptation requirements in different sectors will be assessed. Critical sectors and impacts should be tentatively identifi ed.